Breakdown of Colts-Titans. Playoff's on the line!

[Lawrence Owen]

This game is going to depend a lot on who plays, and who don't.  Both teams have Key players that are injured.
  Tennessee: Big questions are Marcus Mariota's elbow & Brian Orakpo's elbow. ( Jack Conklin, Logan Ryan and Jurrell Casey have been put on IR since last we met them.)

  Indianapolis Colts on the other hand have multiple injuries to watch, Ryan Kelly with a neck injury, Mark Glowinski still trying to come back from an ankle, Anthony Walker Jr. shoulder, and Eric Ebron with the Concussion.

 

  I am of the personal opinion that there is not a lot of drop off from Mariota to Blaine Gabbert.   Mariota is more mobile, but I personally believe Gabbert is more accurate as a pocket passer.  Either way, Indy's pass pressure needs to be more effective in this game than the Giants game.  This was quite effective the first meeting accumulating in 5 sacks.  It may have just caught the Titans coaching off guard however, because this was the first week Eberflus had shown much aggression in that department.  He'll need to disguise these blitzes to make them work well this go around.

  Derrick Henry has been A stud the past few weeks running the football.  But as I watch the film,  he is mostly power, and relies on his O-line to provide holes for him to hit.  He doesn't do much juking, and finesse.  He just powers his way forward, and tries to stiff-arm his way past defenders. The swarming mentality of Indy's defense will be big here.  No-one can let up, even if they are half way across the field.  Henry is not the fastest back, and people like Leonard and Walker can still make plays due to their speed in closing.  I'm a firm believer that run blitzes here can cause havoc with Henry.  He does not change direction well, and if these blitzes can get someone in the backfield during the time of the hand-off, tackles for loss will be the prevalent theme of the day.

  Continue the zone pass defense and make whoever is at QB beat you with underneath throws.  No big plays to guys like Corey Davis.  Make them catch underneath and earn every yard.  Sooner or later we will have to hope mistakes are made, or our pass rush effects the throws.  Neither QB is talented enough to make 35-40 accurate throws in the same game.  turnovers will be available, the Colts will have to be ready to capitalize.

 

  Something of note:  The last time Colts faced Tennessee, the Titans Defensive Coordinator Dean Pees left the game in the first quarter to go to the hospital where he stayed overnight.

 

  The Colts offense is going to depend greatly on who is available.  If Kelly and Glowinski start, we pound the ball early like we did against the Cowboys.  Effective running with our full O-line is a must.  Adore Jackson and Malcolm Butler love to jump routes if they see a 'routine' crop up.  Early in the game, if when we do pass, we use short curls and slants, this will set up Butler and Jackson for the second half of the game.  That is when you use double moves with T.Y. , Inman, and Rogers to take deep shots off the play action.

  If one or the other O-lineman is not ready to go this Sunday, we still run the ball.  But maybe not lean on it as heavily as if we had both out there.  Set up screens with our Tackles sealing the edge to keep their linebackers from entering the fray.  Use Mack and Hines as play action decoys, then throw to them on out-route screens towards Inman and Pascal.  These WR's have shown excellent abilities to block out CB's.

  Use any TE we have as blockers mostly for the first half.  So we can get our running game more of a chance. And keeping the linebackers up in front of the line and not out in coverage is a must.  Then use them in the second have as edge blockers on the screens, and when the opportunity presents itself, hit them on deep outs when the WR's are doing the double moves to go deep post.  Titans linebackers are strong,  good tacklers, but lack exceptional speed and coverage abilities overall.

 

  If we get both our O-linemen back, I see us dominating this game offensively.  28+ points.  If not, 21-24.  Defensively a lot will depend on Walker's return and Eberflus' scheme.If Walker returns, I don't think they throw as well as the Giants did on us.  Walker has a great ability to recognize the offense, and make corrections in coverage.  If we can hold the Titans run game to under 100 yards, we hold them to under 14 points.  
Otherwise, they will keep our offense off the field and wear our D down as the game rolls on.  Our speed and tackling in the front 7 however has been our strongest asset in the run game, and I believe it will be effective once again.  

[aaron11]

no injury reports yet, i think walker and Glowinski play and kelly and ebron are out.  

 

i agree with the run blitzing, send walker on the early downs and have leonard spy on passing downs.  im not sure if they ever run QB spy though 

[strt182]

I think it just depends on who has the most points at the end of the fourth quarter . Sorry

[CR91]

If I had to guess, the injuries to geathers, walker, and glowinski were precautionary. I expect them to play. As for Kelly and Ebron, it depends on the severity. 

[DrLuck]

Great write up, who you got winning? I was a little confused when you said 21-24 (I think you meant that's the amount of points you expect from us).

[Lawrence Owen]

1 minute ago, DrLuck said:

Great write up, who you got winning? I was a little confused when you said 21-24 (I think you meant that's the amount of points you expect from us).

Yeah, that is if one or both of our starting injured O-linemen can't play.  If Kelly can, I figure 28+.

As for the Titans..not sure. Depends on how well we control the run game on defense.  I don't see a shut-out.  But I can see us holding them under 2 TD's if we control the LOS.

[2006Coltsbestever]

This game is too tough to predict this early in the week. Too many question marks regarding injuries. I think we will probably win because we simply have the better QB but they are at home. They are 9-6 like us for a reason, it's because they are Good. If Ebron and Kelly are out that is not good either. 

[oldunclemark]

Excellent write up but  I disagree.

We see Tennessee a lot and there is a major difference between Gabbert and Mariotta

Gabbert is just as good a passer but Mariota can run well and they will called planned option runs for him. Gabbert only runs when his momma calls him for dinner.

    On passing downs. you can feel free to overload the guards and center and rush him up the middle.

They can bully us running the ball....I would dare them to throw on early downs....with an extra safety coming up....

they don't want a shootout and we do.

 

 

 

[Pacergeek]

6 minutes ago, oldunclemark said:

Excellent write up but  I disagree.

We see Tennessee a lot and there is a major difference between Gabbert and Mariotta

Gabbert is just as good a passer but Mariota can run well and they will called planned option runs for him. Gabbert only runs when his momma calls him for dinner.

    On passing downs. you can feel free to overload the guards and center and rush him up the middle.

They can bully us running the ball....I would dare them to throw on early downs....with an extra safety coming up....

they don't want a shootout and we do.

 

 

 

Mariotta is overrated, but Gabbart is garbage. If Gabbart is starting, Tennessee is in huge trouble 

[superrep1967]

1 hour ago, aaron11 said:

no injury reports yet, i think walker and Glowinski play and kelly and ebron are out.  

 

i agree with the run blitzing, send walker on the early downs and have leonard spy on passing downs.  im not sure if they ever run QB spy though 

I heard Kelly has a stinger so maybe he can play. 

[Lawrence Owen]

1 hour ago, oldunclemark said:

Excellent write up but  I disagree.

We see Tennessee a lot and there is a major difference between Gabbert and Mariotta

Gabbert is just as good a passer but Mariota can run well and they will called planned option runs for him. Gabbert only runs when his momma calls him for dinner.

    On passing downs. you can feel free to overload the guards and center and rush him up the middle.

They can bully us running the ball....I would dare them to throw on early downs....with an extra safety coming up....

they don't want a shootout and we do.

 

 

 

The only thing i see we disagree on it Mariota is as good a passer as Gabbert.  I think Gabbert is the better pocket passer, but Mariota has the mobility to go with it. 

I don't think many option runs would work well against our defense.  They are fast, and generally keep contain on the outsides pretty well. Also, with his elbow, I don't think they would put Mariota in situations where he could injure it worse if he plays.

And they absolutely don't want a shoot-out. They'll try to run it all day.  But their O-line is beat up pretty bad.  I'm fairly confident we can get penetration consistently.  It's just hitting him on the penetration to make him stutter in the backfield that is what needs to happen.

[Lawrence Owen]

2 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

This game is too tough to predict this early in the week. Too many question marks regarding injuries. I think we will probably win because we simply have the better QB but they are at home. They are 9-6 like us for a reason, it's because they are Good. If Ebron and Kelly are out that is not good either. 

They are 9-6 because of good run D and good run O.  But Casey, and Conklin are gone.  Those are pillars of that run O & D.  But yeah,...The Kelly question mark is big for us.  But I will feel much better if Glowinski can play if Kelly is out.

[2006Coltsbestever]

9 minutes ago, Lawrence Owen said:

They are 9-6 because of good run D and good run O.  But Casey, and Conklin are gone.  Those are pillars of that run O & D.  But yeah,...The Kelly question mark is big for us.  But I will feel much better if Glowinski can play if Kelly is out.

If I had to pick a winner, I would lean toward us but it would be like a 55/45% ratio. Very close. It's mainly because we have Luck and our ability to be able to stop the run lately. We did a great job vs Zeke and Barkley, Henry isn't better than either IMO. With them being at home it is pretty even though. If Gabbert plays I give us a 60% chance, Mariota is just simply better. 

[coming on strong]

2 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

This game is too tough to predict this early in the week. Too many question marks regarding injuries. I think we will probably win because we simply have the better QB but they are at home. They are 9-6 like us for a reason, it's because they are Good. If Ebron and Kelly are out that is not good either. 

they have a lot more injuries then us .   there best offensive tackle is out best defensive linemen is out best corner is out best linebacker might not play best tightend is out they have many more injuries too. plus their Qb is injured if we cant win its sad.  

 

we should be getting back our starting line and walker and geathers and ebron i bet they all play and were held out due to the colts saving them for this week

[Lawrence Owen]

14 minutes ago, coming on strong said:

they have a lot more injuries then us .   there best offensive tackle is out best defensive linemen is out best corner is out best linebacker might not play best tightend is out they have many more injuries too. plus their Qb is injured if we cant win its sad.  

 

we should be getting back our starting line and walker and geathers and ebron i bet they all play and were held out due to the colts saving them for this week

Ebron wasn't held out, he suffered a concussion during the Giants game.

[runthepost]

Also depends on which Titans team show up. The one against us from earlier in the season or the one that played New England and the one that played Jacksonville 

[coming on strong]

50 minutes ago, Lawrence Owen said:

Ebron wasn't held out, he suffered a concussion during the Giants game.

i know that my point is he will be ready to play in a big game usually people miss 1 or 2 weeks max for concussion it did not look that bad he will play

[Moosejawcolt]

Like most hyped games, this will probably end with a blow out. Who wins , I am not sure.

[Luck 4 president]

Throw out Luck’s 10-0 record against the Titans. He’s never played them with this much on the line. They’re gonna be hyped and we’re gonna be hyped. Should be a good game 

[Luck is Good]

I believe in the Colts. They didn’t make this journey back from 1-5 just to miss the postseason

[Myles]

8 hours ago, coming on strong said:

i know that my point is he will be ready to play in a big game usually people miss 1 or 2 weeks max for concussion it did not look that bad he will play

Yes, and this would be the first missed week.    I hope he plays, but it is uncertain at this point. 

 

9 hours ago, coming on strong said:

 

 

we should be getting back our starting line and walker and geathers and ebron i bet they all play and were held out due to the colts saving them for this week

Do you have an inside source or is this just wishful thinking.   I'm hoping they all play too, but it is possible we are missing 2 or 3 of our best players. 

[Barry Sears]

I'm just glad that after a 1-5 start we are playing in a very meaningful game to end the regular season!  Who would have thought the Colts and Titans would be playing this weekend with a playoff spot (and possibly the division title) on the line?

 

Most figured the Jags would be in the playoffs and maybe the Texans in the Wild Card at the start of the season.

 

Hope that we have Kelly back to get our run game back on track for this game.  That comeback win over the Giants was huge, obviously and put us into this position.  I imagine we'll be super focused this Sunday night!

[crazycolt1]

2 hours ago, Barry Sears said:

I'm just glad that after a 1-5 start we are playing in a very meaningful game to end the regular season!  Who would have thought the Colts and Titans would be playing this weekend with a playoff spot (and possibly the division title) on the line

 

I don't believe anyone predicted we would go 8-1 after the 1-5 start. I know I didn't.

With that said the Colts are exactly where they need to be after that 1-5 start.

They don't have to depend on any other team to make the playoffs. No matter what happens it's been a great ride for the last 9 weeks.

Let's go Colts !!  (and the Jags too!!!)

[Lawrence Owen]

If Eric Ebron can't go with concussion, Colts signed Eric Swoope to the P.S.  We will probably know by Friday night.  I figure if he cannot go, they'll promote Swoope then.

[lollygagger8]

1 hour ago, Lawrence Owen said:

If Eric Ebron can't go with concussion, Colts signed Eric Swoope to the P.S.  We will probably know by Friday night.  I figure if he cannot go, they'll promote Swoope then.

 

Swoope didn't make it on the other team that picked him up, huh? 

 

[coltsva]

2 hours ago, Lawrence Owen said:

If Eric Ebron can't go with concussion, Colts signed Eric Swoope to the P.S.  We will probably know by Friday night.  I figure if he cannot go, they'll promote Swoope then.

Ebron may need Saturday to complete the concussion "steps" and remain symptom free, so we may not know about him on Friday. If he's not ruled out by Friday, I'm optimistic he'll be playing.

[Sevenfeet]

Back after Nov 23rd I came back here and said that I hoped that the last game of the season would be for something special.  And now here we are.

 

The Titans are now guaranteed to have 3 years of consecutive winning seasons, the first since the Oilers became the Titans.  But it's not like any of those years have been the top in the league or even the conference.  We've been up and down due to injuries, poor play against certain opponents, and other X-factors.

 

Which brings me to our big X-factor in this game, Andrew Luck.  No one is under any illusions about playing Luck, a guy we have never beaten.  This was similar to us playing Peyton Manning back in the day.  And the Nov 23 game was one of the most lopsided losses all season with the possible exception of the Ravens game.

 

If the Titans are going to win, we have to get to Luck and that didn't happen last game.  No sacks and very few pressures.  Now not having out defensive coordinator to call the game was a big problem there....Vrabel was calling that game himself from the sidelines.  But even then we weren't doing anything to get beyond the offensive line and if that happens again, Luck will pick us apart like the first time.

 

Then we've had two key injuries on the defensive side.....starting safety Logan Ryan two weeks ago (broken fibula) and Jurell Casey (badly sprained MCL).  Casey's loss is huge...he's arguably our best player on either side of the ball.  He was already selected to the Pro Bowl and his loss is going to be a problem in the quest to get to Luck.  Logan Ryan was a big leader in the secondary and despite having no INTs this year, his presence was felt everywhere and was a key in stopping the run.  Leshawn Sims will replace him and has been playing ok in relief but he's no Logan Ryan.

 

On the bright side for us, Malcolm Butler has been playing up to his reputation since the Bye week....before that he was getting torched on a regular basis.  Safety Kevin Byard is again leading the team in INTs and is playing at a Pro Bowl level again.  Adoree Jackson is the fastest corner on the team, but his lack of experience has been why TY Hilton torched him all the last game.  How he does in this game will be a big question mark.  He's had a pretty good year up until now but he needs to be able to shutdown the elite WRs in this game.

 

The offense this year has been a big problem.  We've consistently been at the back at the pack in stats all year against other clubs.  The reason we're 9-6 now is because the defense has been the 2nd best scoring defense in the league so they've kept us in most game (Nov 23 not withstanding).  Some of that has been the receiving core.  Losing TE Delanie Walker at the beginning of the season was a huge blow since he was easily Mariota's favorite target.  And Rishard Matthews quit the team after the first few games, eventually landing at the Jets.  That left 1st round WR pick Corey Davis and a bunch of players unknown outside of Nashville.  The good news is that the entire crew has been getting better as the weeks have gone on but only Corey Davis scares people.

 

The big news for the Titans offense of late has been the emergence of Derrick Henry.  Now in his 3rd year, most around Nashville was wondering when this guy was going to rise to the Alabama-star, Heisman-winner we knew he was.  And I think he was wondering that too.  He was being played behind former Patriot Dion Lewis (who was running well early on).  But then in one mid-season game, Vrabel actually put in the 3rd string RB (David Fluellen) ahead of Henry in a game.  That guy went down with a non-contact knee injury after a few reps but it shook Henry enough to reach out to Titans legend Eddie George for help.  After that conversation, Henry has been a changed man and has been running with renewed authority.  If he makes 1000 rushing yards this season (now at 966), it'll be largely because of the final four games of the season.  Stop Henry...if you can.

 

The O-line was better last year...this year has been very up and down.  Spain has not played up to his potential.  Taylor Lewan is playing Pro Bowl level ball but he's been nicked up for most of the season.  And Jack Conklin who went on IR two weeks ago had not been playing well at all which is surprising since that guy was an all-Pro his rookie season.  He went down with an ACL tear at the end of last season and didn't play until the first few games of this season.  He didn't have a training camp and he's never been 100%.  When he tweaked the knee again (not as bad this time), the team decided to IR him and wait till next  season.  In the meantime we've had Dennis Kelly filling in for him and Kelly has been the best steal of a trade we've had in over 10 years.  The backup was an upgrade for the starter this year and he'll be fine at right tackle.

 

So that brings us to Mariota.  There is an intense debate on gotitans.com about whether Mariota should even be the starting QB this week, whether he can play or not.  Personally I think the commentary is getting a bit ridiculous but it's apparent that Mariota does seem to end up leaving games more often then anyone would like.  Interestingly enough, he's only missed 4 or 5 starts in four seasons but we watched his predecessor Jake Locker miss a lot of games due to injury.  And then there's the ghost of Steve McNair who always seemed to get out of a hospital bed and lead his team to victory every week.  It's an unfair comparison really, but football fandom doesn't have to be logical.

 

The good news is that he doesn't turn the ball over like he used to (INTs are only 8 this year) but his number of TD passes is 11, which is less than a 3rd of what Luck has this year.  This has been a big problem in Titans scoring this year.  Mariota has had to deal with 3 different offensive systems in four years which doesn't help.  But it doesn't help with the fans with guys like Mahomes slinging it around the yard every game...or of course Luck or Watson in our own division.  But it could be worse...we could have gotten Jameis Winston.

[2006Coltsbestever]

14 minutes ago, Sevenfeet said:

Back after Nov 23rd I came back here and said that I hoped that the last game of the season would be for something special.  And now here we are.

 

The Titans are now guaranteed to have 3 years of consecutive winning seasons, the first since the Oilers became the Titans.  But it's not like any of those years have been the top in the league or even the conference.  We've been up and down due to injuries, poor play against certain opponents, and other X-factors.

 

Which brings me to our big X-factor in this game, Andrew Luck.  No one is under any illusions about playing Luck, a guy we have never beaten.  This was similar to us playing Peyton Manning back in the day.  And the Nov 23 game was one of the most lopsided losses all season with the possible exception of the Ravens game.

 

If the Titans are going to win, we have to get to Luck and that didn't happen last game.  No sacks and very few pressures.  Now not having out defensive coordinator to call the game was a big problem there....Vrabel was calling that game himself from the sidelines.  But even then we weren't doing anything to get beyond the offensive line and if that happens again, Luck will pick us apart like the first time.

 

Then we've had two key injuries on the defensive side.....starting safety Logan Ryan two weeks ago (broken fibula) and Jurell Casey (badly sprained MCL).  Casey's loss is huge...he's arguably our best player on either side of the ball.  He was already selected to the Pro Bowl and his loss is going to be a problem in the quest to get to Luck.  Logan Ryan was a big leader in the secondary and despite having no INTs this year, his presence was felt everywhere and was a key in stopping the run.  Leshawn Sims will replace him and has been playing ok in relief but he's no Logan Ryan.

 

On the bright side for us, Malcolm Butler has been playing up to his reputation since the Bye week....before that he was getting torched on a regular basis.  Safety Kevin Byard is again leading the team in INTs and is playing at a Pro Bowl level again.  Adoree Jackson is the fastest corner on the team, but his lack of experience has been why TY Hilton torched him all the last game.  How he does in this game will be a big question mark.  He's had a pretty good year up until now but he needs to be able to shutdown the elite WRs in this game.

 

The offense this year has been a big problem.  We've consistently been at the back at the pack in stats all year against other clubs.  The reason we're 9-6 now is because the defense has been the 2nd best scoring defense in the league so they've kept us in most game (Nov 23 not withstanding).  Some of that has been the receiving core.  Losing TE Delanie Walker at the beginning of the season was a huge blow since he was easily Mariota's favorite target.  And Rishard Matthews quit the team after the first few games, eventually landing at the Jets.  That left 1st round WR pick Corey Davis and a bunch of players unknown outside of Nashville.  The good news is that the entire crew has been getting better as the weeks have gone on but only Corey Davis scares people.

 

The big news for the Titans offense of late has been the emergence of Derrick Henry.  Now in his 3rd year, most around Nashville was wondering when this guy was going to rise to the Alabama-star, Heisman-winner we knew he was.  And I think he was wondering that too.  He was being played behind former Patriot Dion Lewis (who was running well early on).  But then in one mid-season game, Vrabel actually put in the 3rd string RB (David Fluellen) ahead of Henry in a game.  That guy went down with a non-contact knee injury after a few reps but it shook Henry enough to reach out to Titans legend Eddie George for help.  After that conversation, Henry has been a changed man and has been running with renewed authority.  If he makes 1000 rushing yards this season (now at 966), it'll be largely because of the final four games of the season.  Stop Henry...if you can.

 

The O-line was better last year...this year has been very up and down.  Spain has not played up to his potential.  Taylor Lewan is playing Pro Bowl level ball but he's been nicked up for most of the season.  And Jack Conklin who went on IR two weeks ago had not been playing well at all which is surprising since that guy was an all-Pro his rookie season.  He went down with an ACL tear at the end of last season and didn't play until the first few games of this season.  He didn't have a training camp and he's never been 100%.  When he tweaked the knee again (not as bad this time), the team decided to IR him and wait till next  season.  In the meantime we've had Dennis Kelly filling in for him and Kelly has been the best steal of a trade we've had in over 10 years.  The backup was an upgrade for the starter this year and he'll be fine at right tackle.

 

So that brings us to Mariota.  There is an intense debate on gotitans.com about whether Mariota should even be the starting QB this week, whether he can play or not.  Personally I think the commentary is getting a bit ridiculous but it's apparent that Mariota does seem to end up leaving games more often then anyone would like.  Interestingly enough, he's only missed 4 or 5 starts in four seasons but we watched his predecessor Jake Locker miss a lot of games due to injury.  And then there's the ghost of Steve McNair who always seemed to get out of a hospital bed and lead his team to victory every week.  It's an unfair comparison really, but football fandom doesn't have to be logical.

 

The good news is that he doesn't turn the ball over like he used to (INTs are only 8 this year) but his number of TD passes is 11, which is less than a 3rd of what Luck has this year.  This has been a big problem in Titans scoring this year.  Mariota has had to deal with 3 different offensive systems in four years which doesn't help.  But it doesn't help with the fans with guys like Mahomes slinging it around the yard every game...or of course Luck or Watson in our own division.  But it could be worse...we could have gotten Jameis Winston.

Nice break down, it's been a fun season for both teams. Good luck.

[stitches]

I didn't know if this deserves its own thread so I'm posting it here. Here's Greg Cosell (my favorite analyst out there) breaking down the game and matchups within it for a Tennessee radio station:

 

http://wgfx.streamon.fm/listen-pl-2428?smc=23

[Lawrence Owen]

B.R.'s staff picks for the game. (this alerted me to Indy being 3.5  point road favorites)

 

 

"The final game of the 2018 NFL regular season is cloaked in mystery, mainly because Tennessee Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota had yet to practice midway through the week as a result of a stinger. 

Mariota's unpromising status combined with injuries already sidelining key Titans starters Jack Conklin, Jurrell Casey, Logan Ryan, Delanie Walker and Jonnu Smith has the panel in agreement that the Colts should win and cover a 3.5-point spread on the road. But Gagnon is still preaching caution. 

"If you can find a sportsbook to give you Indianapolis -3 or you're able to buy back a half-point for peace of mind, do it," Gagnon said, "because this will likely be a low-scoring, tight game regardless of Tennessee's injury situation. The Titans are at home, where they beat the playoff-bound Texans with Blaine Gabbert as their starter back in September, and where they easily disposed of the still-alive Redskins with Gabbert serving as their highest-rated quarterback in Week 16. Plus, the Tennessee defense has surrendered just 25 points in its last three games."

All three of those games were wins for a team that hasn't lost in December despite that aforementioned attrition. But they had Conklin and Smith for two of those games, Ryan for three of them and Casey and Mariota for three-and-a-half of them. 

Plus, the Colts defense has also been superb, holding four of their last nine opponents to 10 or fewer points. They're also the much healthier team, and they're only six weeks removed from a 28-point victory over these Titans. 

This almost certainly won't be that lopsided, but Indy should be able to clear a 3.5-point hurdle Sunday night.

Predictions
Davenport: Indianapolis (-3.5)
Gagnon: Indianapolis (-3.5)
Sobleski: Indianapolis (-3.5)
Consensus: Indianapolis (-3.5)

Score Prediction: Indianapolis 21, Tennessee 16"

[2006Coltsbestever]

Vegas has the Colts 3 point favorites. 

[chad72]

Colts 27 Titans 17

[jameszeigler834]

We better show up a lot better than last week or we are in trouble.

[Lawrence Owen]

I have more time to think, and More time to get a real good look at the Titans defense they have available.  If Reich is smart, (and we know he is) he's going to take advantage of not having to use a double on Casey since he's hurt and out, and the fact that Titans linebackers are not athletically fast.  We run the ball.  A lot. Even without Kelly.  Pitch sweeps, and pulling guard off tackle runs should be there against this team.  So should quick RB screens when the defense show's blitz.  I think we can out Titans the Titans.  The same way we did to the cowboys.  Except we used a lot of up the gut runs vs the Cowboys because of smaller, faster linebackers.

[Lawrence Owen]

On 12/25/2018 at 7:32 PM, Lawrence Owen said:

This game is going to depend a lot on who plays, and who don't.  Both teams have Key players that are injured.
  Tennessee: Big questions are Marcus Mariota's elbow & Brian Orakpo's elbow. ( Jack Conklin, Logan Ryan and Jurrell Casey have been put on IR since last we met them.)

  Indianapolis Colts on the other hand have multiple injuries to watch, Ryan Kelly with a neck injury, Mark Glowinski still trying to come back from an ankle, Anthony Walker Jr. shoulder, and Eric Ebron with the Concussion.

 

  I am of the personal opinion that there is not a lot of drop off from Mariota to Blaine Gabbert.   Mariota is more mobile, but I personally believe Gabbert is more accurate as a pocket passer.  Either way, Indy's pass pressure needs to be more effective in this game than the Giants game.  This was quite effective the first meeting accumulating in 5 sacks.  It may have just caught the Titans coaching off guard however, because this was the first week Eberflus had shown much aggression in that department.  He'll need to disguise these blitzes to make them work well this go around.

  Derrick Henry has been A stud the past few weeks running the football.  But as I watch the film,  he is mostly power, and relies on his O-line to provide holes for him to hit.  He doesn't do much juking, and finesse.  He just powers his way forward, and tries to stiff-arm his way past defenders. The swarming mentality of Indy's defense will be big here.  No-one can let up, even if they are half way across the field.  Henry is not the fastest back, and people like Leonard and Walker can still make plays due to their speed in closing.  I'm a firm believer that run blitzes here can cause havoc with Henry.  He does not change direction well, and if these blitzes can get someone in the backfield during the time of the hand-off, tackles for loss will be the prevalent theme of the day.

  Continue the zone pass defense and make whoever is at QB beat you with underneath throws.  No big plays to guys like Corey Davis.  Make them catch underneath and earn every yard.  Sooner or later we will have to hope mistakes are made, or our pass rush effects the throws.  Neither QB is talented enough to make 35-40 accurate throws in the same game.  turnovers will be available, the Colts will have to be ready to capitalize.

 

  Something of note:  The last time Colts faced Tennessee, the Titans Defensive Coordinator Dean Pees left the game in the first quarter to go to the hospital where he stayed overnight.

 

  The Colts offense is going to depend greatly on who is available.  If Kelly and Glowinski start, we pound the ball early like we did against the Cowboys.  Effective running with our full O-line is a must.  Adore Jackson and Malcolm Butler love to jump routes if they see a 'routine' crop up.  Early in the game, if when we do pass, we use short curls and slants, this will set up Butler and Jackson for the second half of the game.  That is when you use double moves with T.Y. , Inman, and Rogers to take deep shots off the play action.

  If one or the other O-lineman is not ready to go this Sunday, we still run the ball.  But maybe not lean on it as heavily as if we had both out there.  Set up screens with our Tackles sealing the edge to keep their linebackers from entering the fray.  Use Mack and Hines as play action decoys, then throw to them on out-route screens towards Inman and Pascal.  These WR's have shown excellent abilities to block out CB's.

  Use any TE we have as blockers mostly for the first half.  So we can get our running game more of a chance. And keeping the linebackers up in front of the line and not out in coverage is a must.  Then use them in the second have as edge blockers on the screens, and when the opportunity presents itself, hit them on deep outs when the WR's are doing the double moves to go deep post.  Titans linebackers are strong,  good tacklers, but lack exceptional speed and coverage abilities overall.

 

  If we get both our O-linemen back, I see us dominating this game offensively.  28+ points.  If not, 21-24.  Defensively a lot will depend on Walker's return and Eberflus' scheme.If Walker returns, I don't think they throw as well as the Giants did on us.  Walker has a great ability to recognize the offense, and make corrections in coverage.  If we can hold the Titans run game to under 100 yards, we hold them to under 14 points.  
Otherwise, they will keep our offense off the field and wear our D down as the game rolls on.  Our speed and tackling in the front 7 however has been our strongest asset in the run game, and I believe it will be effective once again.  

Their offense scored 10 points..we held Henry under 100 yards, and I'd say i'm getting sick of making these calls, but nope...lol  Hopefully me not posting these on here anymore doesn't jinx my team.