Colts contenders this season? Tony Dungy thinks they could be

[NannyMcafee]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.indystar.com/amp/844344002

 

the thing about football is things always bounce in chaotic and unpredictable fashion. 

[Lawrence Owen]

Though I respect Dungy, His entire reasoning for Indy being a 'contender' is Luck being healthy.  I do agree Luck has the ability to bring a poor team up and make them appear better than what they really are, I think to be a REAL contender you need to be excellent in at least 2-4 areas. 

1: Dynamic offence. This doesn't necessarily mean a top tier qb and an outstanding passing game.  You just need to be able to assert you teams will on opposing defenses. aka : run the ball consistently & effectively.  And/or a systematic passing game.

2: Pass rush.  A team that can get 40+ sacks and a ton of hits/pressures effect a passing game in multiple ways.

3: Stout run defense. being a team that other teams know they cannot control the clock and grind you down with the run game forces them to be 1 dimensional.

4: Turnover Ratio.  If your offence can protect the football, and not give it up to the opposing team, it allow you to play your game, and wear defenses down so the second half their defense is tired, and you can move the ball more effectively.   On the flip side, even if your defense is not great, but can get turnovers rather frequently, you give your offence more chances to outscore your opponent.(which is the name of the game)

 

Now, can Indy claim at least 2 of these points? IDK.  I'm hopeful.

[IinD]

Definitely a wait and see thing right now, but teams definitely go from bad to good and vice versa quick in the NFL.

[Dark Superman]

I feel like most people are counting this team out because of our record last season, but I feel like if our offense is clicking and can stay healthy, then this team can score on anyone. I think our defense is going to struggle since a lot of guys will be playing for with each other for the first time. Plus, we have a very young defense and these guys are playing in a new system with a new DC.

[NannyMcafee]

2 hours ago, Savage said:

I feel like most people are counting this team out because of our record last season, but I feel like if our offense is clicking and can stay healthy, then this team can score on anyone. I think our defense is going to struggle since a lot of guys will be playing for with each other for the first time. Plus, we have a very young defense and these guys are playing in a new system with a new DC.

 

Ebron looks to becoming one of Lucks fav targets. 

[Freenyfan102]

21 minutes ago, NannyMcafee said:

 

Ebron looks to becoming one of Lucks fav targets. 

I like the fact Luck is trusting him in camp it just that i dont want luck holding the ball just waiting for TY or Ebron waiting for them to get open.

[NorthernBlue]

I’m optimistic about the Colts this year (pencil me in at 10-6 and a playoff berth), but I don’t know about contenders.

 

We have the QB. We’ll have to see if we got the right (or the Reich ) coach to lead this group.

 

I like us offensively. The Oline has mad potential, the running game has promise, and we got a glut of young and hungry receivers for 12 to throw to. Plus the offensive system is vastly improved from the previous system that relied too much on power running and long developing passing plays (in a division with probably the best pass rushers in the NFL). I expect us to have a top tier unit there.

 

But defensively? They’re young and unproven. I think we’ll see some guys emerge, but as a unit, a little unproven, very young, and lacking experience for them to be considered contenders.

 

We’ll see. One week at a time.

[NorthernBlue]

3 minutes ago, Freenyfan102 said:

I like the fact Luck is trusting him in camp it just that i dont want luck holding the ball just waiting for TY or Ebron waiting for them to get open.

Luck did have a habit to hold on to the football too long. But I think with the new system emphasizes quick releases and chunk plays, and with a few more reliable targets, I think we’ll see much improvement in that department.

[LockeDown]

Dungy has always been a wise person.  There’s truth in what he says and Lucks history affirms it.  If he’s healthy we have a pretty good chance.

[dodsworth]

The offense is gonna be off the charts with playmakers Luck,

TY, Ebron, Doyle, Mack and possibly Hines, Wilkins and Cain.

Not real sure what to think of the defense quite yet.

[southwest1]

I've always liked that about Dungy. He's an eternal optimist. I like when he talked about new HCs & players sizing you up to see if it's essentially worth my time to listen to you & buy into your program. I remember his yrs at Tampa & when Jimmy hired him here. I knew Tony would be successful in INDY because he was so even keel & smart. He always had a quiet confidence to him that drew me in. Plus, he never made anyone feel stupid or incapable of learning something totally foreign to them. Tony knew not everybody digests the same material the exact same way. He was patient & re-assuring.

 

Offense always tends to click faster than defense. I'm not worried in the slightest. I don't really start paying attention until about week 5. If Chewbacca can get sacked & jump back up with no issues. That's my only priority for the first few weeks of season.

 

Frank will instill the mental toughness we need down the stretch. It's just baby steps right now. Slow & steady folks.

[southwest1]

1 hour ago, NorthernBlue said:

Luck did have a habit to hold on to the football too long. But I think with the new system emphasizes quick releases and chunk plays, and with a few more reliable targets, I think we’ll see much improvement in that department.

That's a fair critique NB. Luck's gotta learn that not every down needs to be a 70 yrd bomb to TY or Doyle. I know I say this every yr as well...Please, please, please Andrew don't try & tackle the DB on picks...Let it go & live to play another down. I will never blame you for a turnover ever. I love how you always take responsibility for bad decision making & I will never throw you under the bus Luck.

 

I do agree that Frank will hone Luck's release of the ball & speed up the clock in his head no question about it NB.

[southwest1]

I chuckled when Dungy said he had no interest in returning to coaching. The hours are brutal & the money is quite lucrative on network TV. Tony has too much class to say that, but I would if I were in his shoes.

 

Gruden is gonna miss all the perks he recieved as a MNF host. Returning to coaching after a long absence is just horrendous man. I remember how the Joe Gibbs reboot in Washington went down in flames & I have my doubts about Chuckie 2.0 personally.

[Jeremy Waldon]

10 hours ago, NorthernBlue said:

I’m optimistic about the Colts this year (pencil me in at 10-6 and a playoff berth), but I don’t know about contenders.

 

We have the QB. We’ll have to see if we got the right (or the Reich ) coach to lead this group.

 

I like us offensively. The Oline has mad potential, the running game has promise, and we got a glut of young and hungry receivers for 12 to throw to. Plus the offensive system is vastly improved from the previous system that relied too much on power running and long developing passing plays (in a division with probably the best pass rushers in the NFL). I expect us to have a top tier unit there.

 

But defensively? They’re young and unproven. I think we’ll see some guys emerge, but as a unit, a little unproven, very young, and lacking experience for them to be considered contenders.

 

We’ll see. One week at a time.

The one thing with our D that gives me hope is a fast secondary with good hands, even the young backers(darius and skia) are fast and can catch, if we get hooker and geathers back 100% its gonna be tough to pass inside the hash. I really expect to see some nice picks this year. Would not be surprised to see at least one every game

[Pacergeek]

Here's the thing about the NFL, as long as you win your division, you have a shot. Luck is, by far, the top QB in the south. We have seen Luck carry poorly coached teams deep into the playoffs before. This year we have good coaching. Why not contenders this year?

[Pacergeek]

8 hours ago, southwest1 said:

I chuckled when Dungy said he had no interest in returning to coaching. The hours are brutal & the money is quite lucrative on network TV. Tony has too much class to say that, but I would if I were in his shoes.

 

Gruden is gonna miss all the perks he recieved as a MNF host. Returning to coaching after a long absence is just horrendous man. I remember how the Joe Gibbs reboot in Washington went down in flames & I have my doubts about Chuckie 2.0 personally.

Gruden wins a SB with someone else's team, and he is Vince Lombardi. I think the Raiders were fools picking this has been as their coach. Rooting against Oakland and their arrogance

[NewEra]

We've already seen this team go from 3-13 to 13-3 the following year. So I won't be counting against us with Luck under center. I think people forget how much of a beast that dude was.

[HarryTheCat]

9 hours ago, southwest1 said:

I chuckled when Dungy said he had no interest in returning to coaching. The hours are brutal & the money is quite lucrative on network TV. Tony has too much class to say that, but I would if I were in his shoes.

 

Gruden is gonna miss all the perks he recieved as a MNF host. Returning to coaching after a long absence is just horrendous man. I remember how the Joe Gibbs reboot in Washington went down in flames & I have my doubts about Chuckie 2.0 personally.

He may miss those "perks", but that $100MM should soften the blow a bit. 

[Lef]

Although defense scheme is new, personnel is really not that young. Likely contributors that are vets:

 

Woods

Sheard

Autry

Najee Good

John Simon

Geathers

Ridgeway (3rd yr)

Tyrell Adams

Desir

 

Pretty good vet presence there. Tempted to include TJ Green, whom I am hopeful for, but refrained from listing him. 

 

[MikeCurtis]

15 hours ago, Lawrence Owen said:

Though I respect Dungy, His entire reasoning for Indy being a 'contender' is Luck being healthy.  I do agree Luck has the ability to bring a poor team up and make them appear better than what they really are, I think to be a REAL contender you need to be excellent in at least 2-4 areas. 

1: Dynamic offence. This doesn't necessarily mean a top tier qb and an outstanding passing game.  You just need to be able to assert you teams will on opposing defenses. aka : run the ball consistently & effectively.  And/or a systematic passing game.

2: Pass rush.  A team that can get 40+ sacks and a ton of hits/pressures effect a passing game in multiple ways.

3: Stout run defense. being a team that other teams know they cannot control the clock and grind you down with the run game forces them to be 1 dimensional.

4: Turnover Ratio.  If your offence can protect the football, and not give it up to the opposing team, it allow you to play your game, and wear defenses down so the second half their defense is tired, and you can move the ball more effectively.   On the flip side, even if your defense is not great, but can get turnovers rather frequently, you give your offence more chances to outscore your opponent.(which is the name of the game)

 

Now, can Indy claim at least 2 of these points? IDK.  I'm hopeful.

Nice post

 

Dynamic offense - I think we have a great chance to make this happen, this year!

 

Pass Rush - I think that we can make strides here..... This year.  Why? If we can get points on the board (see point 1), and get some leads, the pass rush with speed all along the line, could be devestating

 

Mathis and Freeney were helped greatly by 2-3 touchdown leads, where other teams felt obliged to pass every down to catch up....... This defense can exploit this

 

Stout run defense...... This one pains me.....

 

The fact is, even if we improve and add to the LBs , DBs we WILL get gashed on some plays

But.......  the hope is, we get a penetrating play or two, per drive, that yields a 3rd and 9, and we get our defense off the field. 

 

Turnover ratio

 

This one has hurt us as well, and some of it was on Luck, as he forced a few throws, hopefully he gets better in the decision .......  But...... with this defense, (IF everyone is healthy) its built to defend a lead, and if you are a DB, you love a great pass rush combined with a zone, where you get to watch the ball in front of you

 

That is a recipie for an interception

 

 

I am cauteously optimistic with this team, but do believe that we need some steps at LB and DB before the season.......  I know you havent heard that from me before.... 

 

[LJpalmbeacher2]

14 hours ago, Savage said:

I feel like most people are counting this team out because of our record last season, but I feel like if our offense is clicking and can stay healthy, then this team can score on anyone. I think our defense is going to struggle since a lot of guys will be playing for with each other for the first time. Plus, we have a very young defense and these guys are playing in a new system with a new DC.

 

Even with a healthy Luck our WR group has to be considered a bottom tier group even with TY who I really like.

And our RB's are all either unproven or cateer backup journeymen. 

 

I do agree that our Defense may struggle severely. And don't know if our offense is able to pit up the points neccessary to win more games than we lose.

 

But we will be finding out soon about our team. Should be interesting.

[dodsworth]

3 hours ago, Jeremy Waldon said:

The one thing with our D that gives me hope is a fast secondary with good hands, even the young backers(darius and skia) are fast and can catch, if we get hooker and geathers back 100% its gonna be tough to pass inside the hash. I really expect to see some nice picks this year. Would not be surprised to see at least one every game

The dBs and LBERS that Ballard goes after has good hands. 

There won't be many "awe shucks I dropped an interception"

moments this year as in years past.

[King Colt]

It is one thing to be optimistic it is another to be led astray by it.

2018 Colts: (need I remind the readers they are "rebuilding?")

OL - bottom half of the AFC South

Pass Rush - Bottom half of the AFC South

Run Defense - Near the bottom of the AFC South 

Secondary - Rock bottom of the AFC South

Receivers - bottom half of the AFC South

Running - Bottom half of the AFC South

QB - ??

Good things come to those who wait.

[Coffeedrinker]

I am a big fan of Dungy, not only as a coach but as a person.  I have a couple of his books and I implement a lot of his philosophies on leadership.

 

I thought this line was great from the interview.  He was asked what he missed about coaching which he answered and then he said what he doesn't miss

Quote

I don’t miss having every day of your life accounted for from July 30 to Feb. 1. Somebody could tell me I’d have a chance to fly to  the moon during the season, but I’d have to tell them, “I can’t, we have a walkthrough at 1 o’clock.’

 

 

[Peterk2011]

4 hours ago, Lef said:

Although defense scheme is new, personnel is really not that young. Likely contributors that are vets: Woods, Sheard, Autry, Najee Good, John Simon, Geathers, Ridgeway (3rd yr), Tyrell Adams, Desir

 

Pretty good vet presence there. Tempted to include TJ Green, whom I am hopeful for, but refrained from listing him. 

 

It depends how you define "pretty good vet presence". Because I can list cca 20 teams in the NFL, where vet present means Von Miller, Khalil Mack, Aaron Donald, J.J. Watt (if can stay healthy), Atkins, Damon Harrison, McKoy, Fletcher Cox, Suh, Jarrett, Malik Jackson, Heyward and so on. And it's only defensive line. I could make a similar list of LB's (Wagner, Kuechly, Foster, Smith, Williamson, Lee, Bowman, Burflict, Ryan - hes out for 2018 -,  Jones, stc. - or secondary - Talib, Sherman, Peterson, Trufant, Ramsey, Bouye, Fuller, Lattimore, Chris Harris, Peters, J. Smith, DMC, H. Smith, Joyner, Earl Thomas and so on.

 

Don't get me wrong, I like Sheard, Woods, Simon, etc too. But be realistic, there is no Von Miller amongst them. Neither a Earl Thomas or Luke Kuechly. At least not yet.

[superrep1967]

On 8/1/2018 at 5:21 PM, Lawrence Owen said:

Though I respect Dungy, His entire reasoning for Indy being a 'contender' is Luck being healthy.  I do agree Luck has the ability to bring a poor team up and make them appear better than what they really are, I think to be a REAL contender you need to be excellent in at least 2-4 areas. 

1: Dynamic offence. This doesn't necessarily mean a top tier qb and an outstanding passing game.  You just need to be able to assert you teams will on opposing defenses. aka : run the ball consistently & effectively.  And/or a systematic passing game.

2: Pass rush.  A team that can get 40+ sacks and a ton of hits/pressures effect a passing game in multiple ways.

3: Stout run defense. being a team that other teams know they cannot control the clock and grind you down with the run game forces them to be 1 dimensional.

4: Turnover Ratio.  If your offence can protect the football, and not give it up to the opposing team, it allow you to play your game, and wear defenses down so the second half their defense is tired, and you can move the ball more effectively.   On the flip side, even if your defense is not great, but can get turnovers rather frequently, you give your offence more chances to outscore your opponent.(which is the name of the game)

 

Now, can Indy claim at least 2 of these points? IDK.  I'm hopeful.

This team is going to surprise a lot of people just wait and see mark my word. 

[superrep1967]

8 hours ago, Peterk2011 said:

 

It depends how you define "pretty good vet presence". Because I can list cca 20 teams in the NFL, where vet present means Von Miller, Khalil Mack, Aaron Donald, J.J. Watt (if can stay healthy), Atkins, Damon Harrison, McKoy, Fletcher Cox, Suh, Jarrett, Malik Jackson, Heyward and so on. And it's only defensive line. I could make a similar list of LB's (Wagner, Kuechly, Foster, Smith, Williamson, Lee, Bowman, Burflict, Ryan - hes out for 2018 -,  Jones, stc. - or secondary - Talib, Sherman, Peterson, Trufant, Ramsey, Bouye, Fuller, Lattimore, Chris Harris, Peters, J. Smith, DMC, H. Smith, Joyner, Earl Thomas and so on.

 

Don't get me wrong, I like Sheard, Woods, Simon, etc too. But be realistic, there is no Von Miller amongst them. Neither a Earl Thomas or Luke Kuechly. At least not yet.

Well, we don't have to be an all-star team. 

On 8/1/2018 at 6:15 PM, IinD said:

Definitely a wait and see thing right now, but teams definitely go from bad to good and vice versa quick in the NFL.

Totally agree! I think the Colts can do it. 

[NewColtsFan]

I hope the optimists in this thread and elsewhere aren’t too disappointed.

 

To me, this is a year where we are playing with House Money.   Expectations are low,  we have little to lose.

 

From where I sit, for things to go as well as the optimists hope for most everything has to go our way.

 

Luck has to be Luck.   The coaching all has to be as good as we hope for.   The vets have to really excel in the new O & D.  The rookies have to meet or exceed expectations.    Oh, and we can’t be one of the most injured teams in the NFL as we’ve been for the last 6 seasons.

 

The odds of ALL of these things going in our favor aren’t great.

 

Is it POSSIBLE?   Yes.  But is it,  PROBABLE?    Is it LIKELY?    I’m sorry, but I don’t think it is.   Things will go wrong.   Expect the unexpected.

 

I will be thrilled if we go 8-8.   I think that’s doable and reasonable.  Anything better and I’ll be over the moon! 

 

This is a season I hope we can all enjoy no matter what....

 

 

[superrep1967]

14 hours ago, Jeremy Waldon said:

The one thing with our D that gives me hope is a fast secondary with good hands, even the young backers(darius and skia) are fast and can catch, if we get hooker and geathers back 100% its gonna be tough to pass inside the hash. I really expect to see some nice picks this year. Would not be surprised to see at least one every game

Yes, I agree! But the pass rusher is definitely a wait and see but Mathis said that will be surprised he also said he didn't wait to give anything away though. 

[IinD]

38 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

I hope the optimists in this thread and elsewhere aren’t too disappointed.

 

To me, this is a year where we are playing with House Money.   Expectations are low,  we have little to lose.

 

From where I sit, for things to go as well as the optimists hope for most everything has to go our way.

 

Luck has to be Luck.   The coaching all has to be as good as we hope for.   The vets have to really excel in the new O & D.  The rookies have to meet or exceed expectations.    Oh, and we can’t be one of the most injured teams in the NFL as we’ve been for the last 6 seasons.

 

The odds of ALL of these things going on our favor aren’t great.

 

Is it POSSIBLE?   Yes.  But is it,  PROBABLE?    Is it LIKELY?    I’m sorry, but I don’t think it is.   Things will go wrong.   Expect the unexpected.

 

I will be thrilled if we go 8-8.   I think that’s doable and reasonable.  Anything better and I’ll be over the moon! 

 

This is a season I hope we can all enjoy no matter what....

 

 

NCF, you're a knowledgeable fan and obviously know football. 

There's many ways we can look at things, but I think optimism is high simply because it's training camp and fans are excited for the new changes we're about to see.

 

I can see every scenario possible including the 'realist' one you mention. We've got a lot of new moving parts and yet to see how everything looks in real time. We could shock folks, just as easily as we could win 5 games honestly.

 

For me, coaching I feel will be better, especially on offense. Even though we can point to Jacoby some, we were just a terrible offense last year in so many regards (play calling, execution). 

 

Reich fundamentally comes from the Polian tree in a way because he was brought up in that winning Buffalo environment. He was a backup to a HOF'er in Jim Kelly. He just won a SB with Philly and went to several as a player. I also like his Dungy calmness vibe.

 

I feel Ballard drafted some good instant players this year that we won't have to wait around to develop.

 

I've got more, but you get the idea.

 

Throw in a new training facility and playing surface and maybe we aren't snakebit with injuries this year.

 

Plus #12.

 

I feel like after no playoffs for 3 straight years Jim, Ballard and Reich have a good formula to get the franchise 'right' again.

[Jeremy Waldon]

9 hours ago, superrep1967 said:

Yes, I agree! But the pass rusher is definitely a wait and see but Mathis said that will be surprised he also said he didn't wait to give anything away though. 

It will be fun, the guys they have and the way they move them around in schemes, i really beleive its gonna make it tough for some Olines, they are getting great reps against our line. And our line is nothing like last few seasons, i dont think they have looked this promising since Saturday and Peyton 

[Four2itus]

I would rather live in optimism and have the team fall short of my hopes, than to accept a less exciting hope for my team because it is prudent or logical, or cautious. 

 

Believing in my team against the odds is the most beautiful part of being a fan in my world. To be the best team year after year with lofty expectations would be missing that challenge element. As I have said 100's of times....I would not trade the last Colt era with any team. It was beautiful. 

 

The challenges for this new era are just setting things up for an even sweeter ride. Remember ....the greatest exhilaration of the roller coaster ride comes after the longest climb on the track. 

[tucky89]

Realistically? A lot would need to happen ( Go right) for them to win a SB this season.

 

Dungy is a fan boy. If the Colts were facing the 85 Bears this season, he'd pick Indy.