Peterk2011

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  1. Peterk2011

    Are we well positioned?

    Looking at this list I tend to say sacks are almost irrelevant. And I take it back immediately lol. And still... last years Steelers defense lead the league in something that the Patriots defense was almost dead last in? That's not a good measurement. (Even if the Pats defense DID struggle for periods of time during the regular season.) Passrush is important of course. It's just the stats that can be misleading.
  2. Peterk2011

    Colts in talks with Inman

    Not because I think he is not willing to invest there. I think he does. I just think WR right now - especially if Inman will be back as well - is not bigger need than most positions. The Colts are more than less set at starters. Actually, they are pretty much set at depth as well. However, they need more "blue chips". True, elite game changing playmakers. That's what I want (hope) Ballard will try to find in this upcoming draft. If that's a WR, then so be it. However, I think the quality in this draft is in defense, expecially at DL, edge and CB. So, I expect some of potential future blue chip DL, edge, CB be available at 26th and 34th, maybe even at the 56th, and if this is true, I expect Ballard to pick them, instead of considering positional needs. Of course, if a top tier WR falls to us, pick him. But I don't see that happening this year.
  3. Peterk2011

    Colts in talks with Inman

    I think if he didn't believe Funches can be the next Ebron (Autry, Hunt), he wouldn't have signed him in the first day of free agency for 10 mills. However, with Funches on board, he has the "luxury" of drafting trully by his board, no positional considerations. Whoever jumps out of his board, he can pick him. Btw, its crazy that two years ago this roster was literally a disaster. Ballard had to sign yourneymen from the street to be STARTERS on sundays. And now, he has a young, quality NFL roster with depth and without glaring needs. Great job, Mr. Ballard.
  4. Peterk2011

    Colts are signing Justin Houston [Merge]

    Maybe because the Colts had an option in the contract to pick up his second year. Spotrac lists those players along with exclusive, restricted and unrestricted free agents as well. Him still being a TBD is obviously a mistake. I guess they had their hands full recently and missed updating some of these lesser players's statuses. Anyway, he is a Colts, for sure. Colts.com lists him on the active roster as well. Thats "semi" official.
  5. Peterk2011

    Current Salary Cap Status

    The 5th year option is determined for an OL, not specific to T, G and C. It will be 9.6M in Kelly-s case. I don't think it worths to pick up ... unless he gets injured again, and Ballard wants a short term deal to see if he can stay healthy. Doyle won't cost 10M, that's top TE money. Unles he makes a carreer year, he'll cost about the same as he does now. Ebron might get a top TE contract if he'll have a similar year as 2018 was. Sheard .... he is an interesting case. I think he worths more than his 8M. Probably 11-12. He is not a sack machine, yes. But neither is Flowers, and he just got nearly 20 mills per. Or Calais Campbell was during most of his carreer. All are very good all around ends, it's just not sacks, but tons of pressures and being good againts the run. Sheard will be 31. If healthy, no history of injuries, that is fine age for an end. There are a number of ends & pass rusher playing at high level at that age. Calais Campbell had his best years over 30 for example. So, I can see Ballard bringing Sheard back. Even if Tyquan Lewis improves. The defensive line needs quality rotation, especially at pass rush. Castonzo is a must resign. He's been never injured, except for a few week last year. Tackles in his age still play at high level. He is a top10 ish LT who still has 3-4 good years in him. He should retire as a Colt.
  6. Peterk2011

    Current Salary Cap Status

    Not that crazy. Actually, pretty normal. The league average right now is 24 [url=https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cap/]according to spotrac[/url]. NFL cap space is the sum of the "real" cap space, and the rollover (the savings rolled over from previous year(s)). Most teams have both. The Colts 74M figure contains 49M rollover (savings from previous year), and cca. 25-26M "normal" cap space (the difference of the actual cap - which is 189 - and the total sum of all contracts is - which is 162.5M for the Colts at the moment). Rollower cannot be used like normal cap space. Imagine if you have 50k yearly income, and you have lets say 100k savings. You can buy a new car for 30k in cash from your savings, and be fine. Your savings will cover it's price and your regular income wont be hurt. However, you cannot finance a 200k new home from your savings, because you will eventually run out of it. You have to finance such investment from your regular income. If you can't afford that, you buy a cheaper home. NFL cap works similarly. If you have 50 mills rollower, and you sign a player for multi year contract - let's say a 4 year deal, 15 mills per year, 60 mills total - the rollover wont cover it despite the yearly cost is only 15. That contract must be financed from the yearly recurring salary cap. (You can use a portion of the savings if you think the player worth it. But, as with your own budget, you have to be very selective and smart deciding what to spend your savings on. It must really worth it.) That is also quite common. Despite these mega multi year deals, NFL mostly operates on yearly basis. Just think of the mere numbers. There are more, than 1500 players under contract each year, and the typical length of a contract is 2 to 3 years. So each year, at least 500 (actually more) player's contract expire. So, except a few teams (who are usually approaching a difficult cap situation in the near future, sometimes even a straight cap hell), most teams's 2020 cap figure is pretty large at the moment. Since the new CBA (and the new mega TV deals the NFL did), the average free cap space is around or over 40M league vise before FA starts, and there's always 5-6 teams with huge free cap to spend. However, as I said before, the pure cap number can be misleading, because it also contains rolled over money. So, the "top 51 cap" (plus the DEAD) column (see the spotract page I linked above) is a better number to judge how much a team is spending, and how much space they have to work with. (In that regard, the Colts are spending the 7th least, with only 1+ dead so they are pretty fine, their total commitment is one of the lowest. But it's far from the 70+ figure the cap space shows on paper.)
  7. Peterk2011

    Improved or status Q ?

    I agree with you. The plan is probably let Sheard go and have Lewis (or someone drafted this year) step in his role. Of course it depend on how Lewis and Turay will develop. And, Ballard is very high on Sheard. He mentioned him plenty of times as a cornerstone in the locker room as well. So I don't rule out that he'll bring him back for another short term deal. (I believe he is better than a "6 sack guy". His sack numbers never were in the 10+ range, but neither Flowerses. Or, in most of his carreer Calais Cambell's neither. Interestingly, Campbell's sack numbers increased over time, and his best came at age 30+. So as a rusher, a 31 years old guy is not necessary old. They still can play at high level, if healthy. And Sheard is healthy.) However, I can see he'll let Doyle go. Maybe even Kelly, if he thinks Boehm is ready to take over the starting role. As a thumb rule, his plan is obviously to keep developing successors and eventually replace aging guys.
  8. Peterk2011

    Improved or status Q ?

    If, and when Lawrence decides to declare for the draft, there will be one draft pick, that will be untradeable. The 1/1. Whoever will have that pick, will keep that pick. Just like in 2011 when Luck declared. Even Grigson, who made plenty of ***** decision, would've never traded the 1/1 away regardless of who and how much would've offered. So, if Luck will be healthy and with the Colts, and the Colts will still have Ballard - who is not a complete * -, forget about that 1/1. They will never get it. Neither for Luck, nor for offering 10 first round picks or whatever. It won't happen.
  9. Peterk2011

    Improved or status Q ?

    Kelly, Castonzo, Ebron, Doyle, Sheard are not mediocre players. They WILL be eating into the cap space, if renewed. These 5 alone will cost probably 15 to 20 millions MORE if resigned or replaced. Especially, if replaced, considering the sky rocketing FA prices. Kelly will cost 10 more alone. Castonzo won't be cheaper, even at 32, Ebron will probably be more expensive to keep, Sheard played like a 12-14 mills edge rusher so far, not a 7-8 that he gets, etc. And there will be mediocre players like Haeg, Clark, Farley, etc. who the Colts might decide to keep, and will cost 2-3-4 each to retain. Not to mention Funches, who, if will stay, will mean he was good and will probably get more than his 7+3+3 now. My point is, that the Colts are now more or less have the roster from top to bottom who they like. It's not a finished product - it will never be -, but Ballard will probably keep resigning more and more of his own players. Last year, he barely signed any one except Vinatieri. This year, he brought back Desir, Glowinski, Hunt, Vinatieri, and tendered Boehm, Farley, Chester Rogers. These 7 players costed cca. a combined 25 million more than their previous salary. And these are all more or less fit in your "mediocre" category. Next year, there will be better and more important players to resign. Numbers add up quickly. (I'm not arguing that Ballard has the leverage to sign 2 top class free agents for combined 35. He does. I was trying to say, that that is probably the farthest he will go ever, and he will very carefully select who he will spend that money on. If he thinks the player's price is over his value, or if he thinks the player is not 100% fit, he'll pass on.)
  10. Peterk2011

    Justin Houston: Good Fit?

    Ballard came from Kansas City, he knows Houston very well. I assume, if we would be a good fit, he'd been already visited Indy....
  11. Peterk2011

    Improved or status Q ?

    Doesn't matter. They are contributing, and if they won't bring one player back, they will need to sign someone. And that player has to be at least as good as the one who has gone, and as cheap as he was to be financially where they were this year. Regarding the cap space, please don't be fooled by the numbers floating around. It is SOOO misleading. The Colts are in great shape cap wise, but please, forget that 100 million, or 70 million or whatever it is. It cannot be converted to contract yearly averages, as I believe many people think. You CAN NOT sign 10 players for 10 millions each from that 100 million, because much of it is a rolled over money. Not "real", recurring cap space. You cannot make multi year deals spending rolled over money, because you won't be able to pay the bill next year. The Colts, at the moment have 74 million cap space on paper, but 49.1 million of it rolled over money. They saved this from not spending in previous years. The "real" cap space is around 25-26 milliĆ³ns. (The total amount of current active contracts is around 162 mills, and the cap is 189 mills. Do the math.) Of course the Colts COULD go over the 189 million cap and spend some of that rolled over money if they wanted to. But that is not recurring money. If they sign a multi year contract having been already OVER the 189 million (lets assume it hypotetically, that they go over it), then they cannot pay the second (third, etc.) year of the contract, because the rollover money will not regenerate. Of course there's a possibility, that they still can pay the player, if, in the next year, the total of the contracts will be less / won't reach the cap, so the extra players salary will fit under it. But that is unlikely in the Colts case, because the Colts current roster is financially extremely well managed. There is virtually no player on the roster, who is under-performing (earning significantly more than his production). Actually, just the opposite, there are a lot of players, who earn less than their production, because the team is young. And still, the Colts are only 26 mills under the "real" cap already. So, next year, if someone becomes a FA and his salary comes off of the table, the Colts will need to replace that player. And because that player's salary was a very team friendly amount, the Colts will have to replace that contract with a similarly cheap, excellent contract, to keep their total spending at the same level where it was a year before. (The cap will go up a bit, but the prices will inflate as well.) Anything over that, will increase the total spending. What's Ballard been preaching about ever since he signed his contract in Indy? We wants to build a quality roster that is sustainable for the long term. What does it mean? Financially, it means, staying always UNDER the REAL cap. Save the roll over. Save it, and use it wisely occasionally, for moves, which have only ONE YEAR affect. Like extending with Luck and FRONT loading his new contract, so his cap hit will be very modest in his 2nd to Xth years. Or sign an elite veteran for one year, when the team is that one player away from being a strong SB contender. Like what Belichick did by signing Revis for one year, or Talib for one year. What the Colts CANNOT do is to go out and grab a top FA for multi year contracts for crazy, inflated price and pay him from the roll over. That is recipe for failure. So, rather than staring at that 70 ish, think about the 25-28 that the Colts have under the real cap. That's the money Ballard is willing to spend this offseason. Including the draft, which will cost cca 8 mills. So that 25 is rather 17-18 or something like that.
  12. Peterk2011

    Free Agent Visits

    Is it possible to make a sticky post at the beginning of the thread with a list of actual visits? Even whispers. This is probably the 5th time I open this topic to look for some news, and its still all about Ajayi's running style lol. Honestly, I couldn't care less about his style, but I am curious about any news...
  13. Peterk2011

    Jalen Collins

    He is on the roster, he's got the talent. He needs to stay away from the "joy" stuff, and then he'll have a good shot I think. This offseason will be a true test for him. If he can stay clean, that's a good sign.
  14. https://247sports.com/nfl/pittsburgh-steelers/Article/Antonio-Brown-Patriots-fake-news-129950180/
  15. Peterk2011

    What would you do if you were the Colts GM?

    I almost wrote a long post here, but I deleted it. It just does not worth the effort, sorry. Being a GM is a dynamic chain of acts. You negotiate, you give counter offers, you get out of deals, you bid over others or not. It can't be simulated by writing down a plan, because anything I write down is written in stone. If I write down that I want to sign Bradley Roby for 3 years, 26M. 11M guaranteed, it's written in stone. I can't change my mind, can't alter my deal, can't get out of it. I will never be right, because things never happen exactly as they are expected, and I can't react to the events. So, I appreciate the OP's proposal, but I skip this opportunity. I rather sit back, and a) read those people's posts, who have enough time (and willingness) to write down a complete mock, b) I react to what's happening in the real world. There's no need to put down a complete plan to have an opinion about it.