Grading the current roster - if trends play out

[rock8591]

Assuming to a degree that current trends continue to play out...and that 6 games has passed, roughly 1/3 of the season...

 

Here's how I would grade the roster at this time. Several things.

 

1. I factored in current performance as well as current injuries/future potential.

2. At the same time, I was careful not to downgrade a player simply because they are old.

3. This roster definitely has far more talent than the chart shows, and our record shows. If Bill Belichick was the coach, he'd find a way to have Time of Possession of 40+ minutes a game, scores of 50+ points a game. e.g. I would not like to see Pagano and Hamilton with the Patriots 3 rookie OL, their LT out for the season, and no WRs basically. Nor would I like to see them coach against Belichick if the latter had the WRs and TEs that we have.

4. Lastly, most players in the NFL will be Average - not everyone can be Solid or Elite, nor Poor.

 

P.S. Click on image to enlarge. If you're unable to see the image, go to this link: http://s10.postimg.org/wbdfjf0p5/Grading_the_players.jpg

 

[backshoulderfade]

Dont agree with Anderson being solid yet Parry average. Parry has been one of the best NTs in the league this year.

Vontae has had a couple down games but he is still elite. He can still take players out of the game. Scheme is the big issue IMO.

[21isSuperman]

Parry has been solid.  Both ILBs have made mistake, but have been impressive to me.  And Vinny should be upgraded.

[Johnny Bui]

yea trent cole hasn't been living up to expectations.  I think Mewhort is a Solid starter @ LG.  Parry is a good starter.  I wouldn't call Toler a Below avg starter.  He has trouble covering Slot receivers as does pretty much every corner.  

 

I would like to see Sio Moore and probably even Werner on pass rush downs.  

[rock8591]

I made an effort not to overlist our players; IMO elite means top 10 players in the league OR #1-2 at their position.

 

Parry is like an Ian Williams who doesn't get injured, but is far from Solid right now. That would be Dontari Poe or Damon Harrison.

[NewColtsFan]

The Pats have "no WR's basically"...?!?

 

This is going to come as a terrible surprise to Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola.

 

I wonder if they know this?

[crazycolt1]

The Pats have "no WR's basically"...?!?

 

This is going to come as a terrible surprise to Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola.

 

I wonder if they know this?

I guess someone overlooked Edelman's 40 catches, 445 yards,  11.2 average and 4 TDs. in 5 games. Do the Colts have any receivers with those numbers?

[crazycolt1]

Assuming to a degree that current trends continue to play out...and that 6 games has passed, roughly 1/3 of the season...

 

Here's how I would grade the roster at this time. Several things.

 

1. I factored in current performance as well as current injuries/future potential.

2. At the same time, I was careful not to downgrade a player simply because they are old.

3. This roster definitely has far more talent than the chart shows, and our record shows. If Bill Belichick was the coach, he'd find a way to have Time of Possession of 40+ minutes a game, scores of 50+ points a game. e.g. I would not like to see Pagano and Hamilton with the Patriots 3 rookie OL, their LT out for the season, and no WRs basically. Nor would I like to see them coach against Belichick if the latter had the WRs and TEs that we have.

4. Lastly, most players in the NFL will be Average - not everyone can be Solid or Elite, nor Poor.

 

P.S. Click on image to enlarge. If you're unable to see the image, go to this link: http://s10.postimg.org/wbdfjf0p5/Grading_the_players.jpg

 

So basically all you have said is Belichick is a better coach? I think he has a couple of more years as a head coach under his belt than any on the Colts team. Oh by the way, Belichicks first four years as a head coach he went 36-44. It seems that Pagano has a better record in his first few years than the great Belichick.

[NewColtsFan]

I guess someone overlooked Edelman's 40 catches, 445 yards,  11.2 average and 4 TDs. in 5 games. Do the Colts have any receivers with those numbers?

 

 

Yup......     another 100+ catch season for Edelman.

[RealityIsLuck]

Greg Toler being at the same level as Robert Mathis, Jerrell Freeman and Trent Cole needs to change. 

[JPFolks]

Parry to Good Starter, Mewhort to Solid Starter as I believe he, and not Castonzo, is our best player on the line and Castonzo is borderline Solid though his penalties are his weakness, I am not sure how many of those were to physically protect Luck from a crushing hit and therefore the right play to make.  

[rock8591]

Greg Toler being at the same level as Robert Mathis, Jerrell Freeman and Trent Cole needs to change. 

 

Mathis and Cole have past their prime; it's not 5 years ago when 10 sacks a year was a disappointment, but now, 5 sacks a year would be considered to be a godsend.

 

Toler is much more valuable to the team right now than the above.

[2006Coltsbestever]

I think we have C talent on Defense and A- talent on Offense, it's an A- because of Andrew. If we didn't have Andrew it would be a C as well, meaning we are an Average team without him. With Hass we would be 8-8 at best if he played all 16 games.

[Dustin]

I don't understand how solid is better than good.

[SOMDColtsfan]

So basically all you have said is Belichick is a better coach? I think he has a couple of more years as a head coach under his belt than any on the Colts team. Oh by the way, Belichicks first four years as a head coach he went 36-44. It seems that Pagano has a better record in his first few years than the great Belichick.

Was Belichick his own GM his first 4years, just curious? The difference I see is the Pats give their rookies 2 years..rookie year to get acclimated and by end of 2nd year they produce or they hit the road. Not too many teams function that way. Theres usually 4-5 guys on any given team drafted in the 2nd-3rd round that management holds onto because they were drafted so high but really didn't pan out. Belichick wont blink to cut a player. I wonder if Pagano is too loyal or if he had same power to cut players would he do it? It would def be interesting to see how far Belichick could take the talent on this team and who would he cut/keep.. 

[Defjamz26]

This chart just illustrates what I've been feeling about the Colts for awhile now: the roster isnt there yet.

The expectations of this team based on the roster are way overblown.

[crazycolt1]

Was Belichick his own GM his first 4years, just curious? The difference I see is the Pats give their rookies 2 years..rookie year to get acclimated and by end of 2nd year they produce or they hit the road. Not too many teams function that way. Theres usually 4-5 guys on any given team drafted in the 2nd-3rd round that management holds onto because they were drafted so high but really didn't pan out. Belichick wont blink to cut a player. I wonder if Pagano is too loyal or if he had same power to cut players would he do it? It would def be interesting to see how far Belichick could take the talent on this team and who would he cut/keep.. 

I am pretty sure that he didn't have the GM position at that time. My only point I was trying to make was just about all head coaches learn by making mistakes and most make themselves better from not repeating them. Only time will tell if Pagano falls into that category.

[SOMDColtsfan]

This is Chucks first gig as a HC and Grigsons first as a GM. You made a great point about Belichicks record in his first 4 years, he learned from his mistakes obviously. IMO, I believe Chuck is a great leader. Personally I loved the grit and take chances/be aggressive style against the Patriots. It doesn't always pan out but drop back punting against that team all day long sure wont beat them. The Colts looked closer to having a real chance than at any other time against the Pats, I think they have something going now even tho was a loss..lets hope!  

[rock8591]

I don't understand how solid is better than good.

 

It's just a vocabulary terminology issue.

 

"Good" is oftentimes used now as to mean "slightly above average" while "Solid" IMO means "just below Elite".

[Gavin]

To many categories

 

 

Elite

Average

Poor

Rookie

 

Is all that is needed

[JColts72]

Roster; Fair but serious questions; Coaching is Flawed.

[UKColt13]

Vontae should be elite

Parry should be the same level as Anderson

DQ and Freeman are solid starters. They've been impressive this year so far.

Dwayne Allen should be bumped up too. He's good, we just don't utilise him correctly.

[aaron11]

This chart just illustrates what I've been feeling about the Colts for awhile now: the roster isnt there yet.

The expectations of this team based on the roster are way overblown.

It's on the FO and head coach to get it there. You are wasting lucks career if you aren't contending for a super bowl.

I know we made the final 4 last year, but you are not a contender if you cannot hang with the patriots. Its just a matter of when you get knocked out

[spartancolt]

I made an effort not to overlist our players; IMO elite means top 10 players in the league OR #1-2 at their position.

 

Parry is like an Ian Williams who doesn't get injured, but is far from Solid right now. That would be Dontari Poe or Damon Harrison.

top 1 or 2 is elite?..why not just have a category for the best? Whatever no biggie seems to extreme for elite.jmo

[Defjamz26]

It's on the FO and head coach to get it there. You are wasting lucks career if you aren't contending for a super bowl.

I know we made the final 4 last year, but you are not a contender if you cannot hang with the patriots. Its just a matter of when you get knocked out

I don't think the Colts have to be contending for Super Bowls 4 years into a new regime after a 2-14 record. That's a lot to put on the shoulders of both the coach and the QB.

And while you can point towards young SB winning QBs like Brady, Wilson, and Rothlisberger as examples, you have to look at how good the team around them were.

Grigson should no better than to think this is a Super Bowl team in the 4th season, especially considering how his offseasons have gone

[aaron11]

I don't think the Colts have to be contending for Super Bowls 4 years into a new regime after a 2-14 record. That's a lot to put on the shoulders of both the coach and the QB.

And while you can point towards young SB winning QBs like Brady, Wilson, and Rothlisberger as examples, you have to look at how good the team around them were.

Grigson should no better than to think this is a Super Bowl team in the 4th season, especially considering how his offseasons have gone

It's not super bowl or bust, but 2 things bug the heck out of me with this team.

First, they are regressing. We were better a year or two ago with a healthy Reggie and mathis.

Second, they preach about playing 4 quarter s every week, but we never see it.

[Narcosys]

Assuming to a degree that current trends continue to play out...and that 6 games has passed, roughly 1/3 of the season...

Here's how I would grade the roster at this time. Several things.

1. I factored in current performance as well as current injuries/future potential.

2. At the same time, I was careful not to downgrade a player simply because they are old.

3. This roster definitely has far more talent than the chart shows, and our record shows. If Bill Belichick was the coach, he'd find a way to have Time of Possession of 40+ minutes a game, scores of 50+ points a game. e.g. I would not like to see Pagano and Hamilton with the Patriots 3 rookie OL, their LT out for the season, and no WRs basically. Nor would I like to see them coach against Belichick if the latter had the WRs and TEs that we have.

4. Lastly, most players in the NFL will be Average - not everyone can be Solid or Elite, nor Poor.

P.S. Click on image to enlarge. If you're unable to see the image, go to this link: http://s10.postimg.org/wbdfjf0p5/Grading_the_players.jpg

Low on several, high on a couple. Definitely seems you're holding one or two plays against people and not being objective.

[throwing BBZ]

The trend would be a good starter in Thornton.
Our most effective lineman the last 2 games.
Of course what matters is where we are at after 12-14 games.

[Narcosys]

Of our Receivers, heres the Receptions to Targets breakdown and then some.

 

T.Y. Hilton:  33/59 = 56% reception percentage; 456 yds/ 13.8 avg/ 1 TD with a 3% TD/rec ratio

 

Donte Moncrief  30/49 = 61% reception percentage; 347 yds/ 11.6 avg/ 4 TD with a 13% TD/rec ratio

 

Andre Johnson 16/33 = 48% reception percentage; 163 yds/ 10.2 avg/ 2 TD with a 33% TD/rec ratio

 

Griff Whalen 3/4 = 75% reception percentage; 46 yds/ 15.3 avg/ 1 TD with a 33% TD/rec ratio

 

Philip Dorsett 10/21 = 47% reception percentage; 159 yds/ 15.9 avg/ 1 TD with a 10% TD/rec ratio

 

 

Make of that what you will, but I wouldn't be putting T.Y. as a solid starter by his performance this season alone.  

Before you say, it has been because of QB play, i know.  That is why "grading out" certain positions is ridiculous because it is all based on the reliance of another position.  If you are going to excuse one, you have to excuse them all. 

 

Think the OP has some biased and it is very evident.

[Defjamz26]

It's not super bowl or bust, but 2 things bug the heck out of me with this team.

First, they are regressing. We were better a year or two ago with a healthy Reggie and mathis.

Second, they preach about playing 4 quarter s every week, but we never see it.

I hear you. But I don't see it as regression, but more so the team hitting its wall. This is who the Colts really are. Grigson and the AFC South just mask a lot of our flaws.

A middle of the pack 7-9/9-7 team is our true identity and that's okay.

[rock8591]

To many categories

 

 

Elite

Average

Poor

Rookie

 

Is all that is needed

Something's needed to separate the best from the great, good, average, marginal, and poor. PFF uses a similar grading system.

 

Elite IMO is top 3 at position or top 10 players in the league. e.g. Aaron Rodgers, JJ Watt, Rob Gronkowski, etc.

 

Solid - regular pro bowler, or at least deserves to be one. e.g. Kam Chancellor, Bobby Wagner, Jamie Collins.

 

Good - occasional pro bowler, underrated players.

 

Average - most players in the league.

 

Below Average - most backups, 2nd string players.

 

Poor - Laron Landrys, Trent Richardsons, Lance Louises, Darrius Heyward-Beys. Or bottom 3 of position.

[rock8591]

Vontae should be elite

Parry should be the same level as Anderson

DQ and Freeman are solid starters. They've been impressive this year so far.

Dwayne Allen should be bumped up too. He's good, we just don't utilise him correctly.

 

DQ and Freeman are far from solid, average at best. Average compared with other NFL players (that's the key word)...not average compared with the common man.

[rock8591]

Another analysis I do is what CFN.scout.com does...

Kinda like this format: http://cfn.scout.com/2/1423130.html

 

---10 best players---

1. QB Andrew Luck

2. CB Vontae Davis

3. WR TY Hilton

4. OG Jack Mewhort

5. LT Anthony Castonzo

6. DE Henry Anderson

7. P Pat McAfee

8. WR Donte Moncrief

9. RB Frank Gore

10. S Mike Adams

 

Star of the offense - Andrew Luck

Player that needs to step up and become a star - Khaled Holmes and Hugh Thornton

Unsung star on the rise - Jack Mewhort

3 pro-bowl prospects - Luck, Hilton, and Mewhort

 

Star of the defense - Vontae Davis

Player that needs to step up and become a star - David Parry (very good rookie season, but not a star just yet)

Unsung star on the rise - Henry Anderson (PFF places him regularly top 5 of 3-4 DEs)

3 pro-bowl prospects - Davis, Anderson, and Mike Adams

 

 

[Steamboat_Shaun]

I guess someone overlooked Edelman's 40 catches, 445 yards, 11.2 average and 4 TDs. in 5 games. Do the Colts have any receivers with those numbers?

Moncrief. Not as many yards or catches, but same average & TDs.

[rock8591]

Moncrief. Not as many yards or catches, but same average & TDs.

 

Edelman's an Average starter at best, largely a by-product of the NE system and with Gronkowski on the field at the same time.

 

If he was not on the Patriots, he'd just be like Joe Andruzzi, Tom Ashworth, Daniel Graham, and Ty Law - nobodies after they left the Patriots.

[UKColt13]

DQ and Freeman are far from solid, average at best. Average compared with other NFL players (that's the key word)...not average compared with the common man.

 

DQ leading the league in tackles by a wide margin isn't solid?

[theanarchist]

Good analysis IMO. There are some pieces there on this roster. I think we get back in the championship conversation with 1) addition of an elite pass rusher 2) one more strong offensive linemen. We need more than that but those are two things that would make us better immediately and we have enough other pieces to be solid in the other areas.

 

It will be interesting to see how Mathis looks as the season goes along. So far with his spot time he hasn't been able to generate much of a pass rush. His 12 plus sacks a season is being sorely missed at this point.

[runthepost]

DQ leading the league in tackles by a wide margin isn't solid?

Pat led the lead in tackles in 2011 was he good? Freeman is averag to below average at best

[Steamboat_Shaun]

DQ and Freeman are far from solid, average at best. Average compared with other NFL players (that's the key word)...not average compared with the common man.

 

DQ's playing solid ball this year, far better than last season when he went to the Pro Bowl.