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JPFolks

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Everything posted by JPFolks

  1. I have no doubt! I was disappointed because I actually watched him play every year in every game he played at Carolina. I had hopes for him out of the draft, but he really didn't impress. But here is something to consider. Even if he has an "Ebron" type year coming up, that doesn't win the argument for me. Doyle if healthy, would have dominated the catches outside the end zone and we'd be having a different discussion because though he'd still have had 10 TD Catches probably, his drops would not have so easily been ignored, especially in big moments. So it isn't too late for some of the naysayers from that draft to be a little more balanced in their assessment. I actually remember being ecstatic last year with the first 3 picks, because I am more a "need" guy than a "bpa" guy, though not 100%, more like 60/40. What was brilliant in the top 3 picks were they were ALL huge needs, but in hindsight, they turned out to be BPA by a MILE when they were picked. In fact all would have been top 15 1st rounders I bet in the hindsight draft. I do recall not being as excited about the last 2 picks Turay in particular. I hope he turns into a monster and makes my doubting him look silly. I'd always rather look silly when I am down on someone than end up with a bust. I hope Funchess balls out like I first hoped when he was drafted. If he does, it will PROVE how superior Luck is to Newton (even though for me it is already clear). It also demonstrated how superior Luck was to Mr. Detroit though I doubt many questioned that anyway. If he gets the most out of Ebron and Funchess two years in a row it will simply prove his brilliance as a player and Reich's genius at play design/calling.
  2. Well, thanks for acknowledging that you buried the lead. I actually believe a couple thing, feel free to prove me wrong, I won't mind. One, I believe that talking heads on TV, especially when talking about an entity that makes their careers even possible (NFL) will often either commit "not true" blatantly, or will fudge information into the most favorable possible representation. I could list dozens or even hundreds of examples of outright LIES made by people in the media, and that includes the sports media. Not simply wrong opinions, but easily disprovable lies. I won't because this site (thankfully) doesn't allow that sort of thing, but an honest thinker knows it is true, or could easily look for themselves to check. Secondly, I believe to understand anything in the world, the easiest pathway to truth is to follow the money. You think the options are limited to 10 because someone told you, but did you do the math? No. I've seen the math done and the possibilities of 32 teams playing 16 games in 17 weeks where you must only include the following rules: A 50% home schedule for most teams. The exceptions being out of country games that unfairly count as home games for one of the teams, but of course they rarely let you know that financially (re: follow the money) the home team makes a LOT more money by giving up that home game. Additionally, only two teams are locked into specific home games, the week of Thanksgiving. The Cowboys and Lions. (Though to be clear, this could randomly change any time, just like they changed the "tradition" of the first game of the season being the past Super Bowl Champion, though it didn't affect the home/away configuration). In all other circumstances, you can make the home and away games whenever you want. The only additional factor is every team gets a week off between two set points in the season. Not a big deal really since each time you give a team a bye, it forces a corresponding team to also take a bye so it isn't as though there can be even/odd numbers on a given week like they briefly had during expansion which I believe ushered in the bye weeks). The additional factor you may want to interject is the divisional requirements and the pre-determined NFL teams you must play. It doesn't change anything. So, if you accept what you hear from a talking head may be accidentally or intentionally inaccurate to support a narrative and that if you want to know the truth you need to follow the money, that allows you to discover that your quote of 10 options was naive and even the number of 100,000 I is woefully LESS than the actual mathematical number. Don't believe or think I am making it up? What if I told you the number of schedule possibilities for a given team is 60 TRILLION... yes, I said TRILLION. What if I told you the number of possibilities for the entire leagues schedule is a number simply too large to comprehend. Would that perhaps make you back off you claims of NOT being naive? Yeah, I didn't think so. So I looked it up so that someone else would tell you other than me. ------------------------------------------------ "'Factoring in days of the week and opponents, the Vikings alone have about 60 trillion different possible schedule combinations." For the entire league? “There are more combinations than the number of atoms in the universe,” Karwan said. He was dead serious.'" -Mark Karwan Karwan, a professor of operations research at the University of Buffalo, is part of a team of researchers that has partnered with the NFL in an attempt to make the league schedule as fair as possible for every team. ----------------------------------------------------- Still don't believe me? (perhaps you're THAT stubborn...) Here's the link to the entire article, but there are plenty more. http://m.startribune.com/inside-the-journey-from-60-trillion-possibilities-to-one-vikings-schedule/508765572/ By the way, they haven't started suggesting fairer schedules yet, they are just taking in info at this stage. If you still think the argument that there are 10 options out of 100,000 possibilities isn't naive, then I can't help you. On a side note: I do think there are fairer schedules. One would be BYE weeks. Having an early BYE week is unfair. Week 4 is laughable, but Week 6 where the Colts are is also unfair. Teams we compete with for the division title have much much later BYES putting us at a CLEAR disadvantage to get healthy going into the playoffs. THAT is a CHOICE made by the NFL. Additionally, putting our toughest road games of the season all on PRIME TIME where home teams have an even greater advantage (and a more stressful travel schedule for the away team) is totally unfair. We have 4 national games, all are AWAY. THAT is a choice made by the NFL. The worst of all, we have 3 critical late division games in a row with an AWAY Thursday night game against our rival of last year right in the middle. Are all the teams in our division ALSO at that disadvantage? Nope. No others are. So after a bruising game with Jacksonville, we have to turn around and travel to Houston on 3 days broken rest (due to travel) to play perhaps the biggest single game of the season for the Colts. THAT is a CHOICE made by the NFL. My solutions: Simple. Divisional teams should ALL have the same BYE week. ALL Byes should be week 9, 10, 11, 12 and it should be based on how far the top teams (with tie breakers) got in the playoffs. That would leave plenty of good games during the Bye Weeks, (75% of teams). It would basically be a half way rest mark like other leagues take and be far more fair to ALL teams regardless of circumstances. I would ALSO make sure the home team prior to a Thursday night game must play AWAY the previous Sunday and the AWAY team must play at HOME. That way each team has a travel day affecting the 3 day layoff, either leaving for home on Sunday or traveling to the game. I could offer up a lot more as could ALL of you and ALL your suggestions would likely be better than what we have now. I've heard people suggest that BYE weeks be across 2 weeks and also BYE weeks go in draft order based on scheduled finished (not picks obviously) the previous year so the better you play, you are rewarded by a later BYE. Since you get hosed on Drafting, you should gain this one benefit by playing well. That's not a bad idea, but I prefer to bunch them up when it matters, near mid season when teams really need a vacation to heal. This acts as a near mid season break like all other leagues. I also think Division games should NOT be on Thursday night because there is such a clear disadvantage to the away team regardless. I think if they were smart like these guys above who are going to work on it, they would also break up the stretches of road away games that tend to be unfair. 2 in a row is one thing, 3 or more is too much.
  3. JPFolks

    NFL Schedule

    I think I heard the Bengals and Dolphins have no Thursday Night Game.
  4. I am quite aware of how the teams and locations are chosen. BUT.. they have complete control over which games are National games, Monday Night, Sunday Night or Thursday Night. In all 4 cases, we are the AWAY team. That wasn't necessary. but they did it and it was predictable (in fact I DID predict exactly this type of thing on an earlier post here where someone posted a guess at our schedule and I said it would be typical for us to get hosed (based on his guess of how our schedule would go) in that way. And sure enough, WE DID. There is ZERO reason we had to have all 4 national games on AWAY schedule. Thursday night could easily have been one of our divisional home games, but predictably, they picked our away game. And anyone who things they don't fudge games around on those National spots is fooling themselves... the order of games, the weeks of the byes and the National spots are all ways they manipulate the schedules to achieve financial goals they have. It is naive to think otherwise. My argument has nothing to do with the mandatory system that determined who we would play and which games would be home and away. The ONLY thing that is unknown in any future season (until they make changes in how they rotate divisions) is where teams finish the season. So only 2 games NEXT year are unknown at this time on each teams schedule but that doesn't change the huge exponentially higher number of possibilities. 10 viable options for variation? Is that what you are saying? There are an exponential number of variables in how the schedule is set up. Every team could be on a bye across all the possible weeks. Every team could play their pre determined schedule in any given order, ,matching the teams they play that week. So all 17 weeks for the Colts are open for any combination. The only thing that has to happen for any combination is the teams they play obviously have to ALSO play the Colts those weeks. But the combinations of those game orders are exponentially higher than 10. Add many zeros to that. Then once a schedule IS set, they pick and choose which games are played on which days of the week. Only two games are locked at that point and that is Dallas and Detroit will be hosting on Thanksgiving. (Why this doesn't change is another question since they break with tradition in so many ways all the time like who is starting off the season this year). They have so much control over how teams schedules are set up. They can easily favor teams if they want to, though I am not suggesting they are trying to fix the playoffs, I am suggesting they are trying to maximize financial benefit even if it screws one team and helps another. Only 10 viable options? Don't be naive.
  5. They all had an opportunity to prove they should be a #2. They failed. One due to injury, so he could change things, the others proved they were not ready to be #2. Not much separation (Pascal seemed to have some potential there I will say), terrible hands as a group, only occasionally being in the right place at the right time like Rogers in the Miami game. But to be clear, they proved they were not ready to be our #2 which is why we brought in Funchess and why many believe (and hope) that we will be drafting a WR in the draft to also address our underwhelming WR corps. Even if at some point in the future one of these guys end up as our #2, it doesn't change what they have all demonstrated already. Cain has not had the opportunity in actual games so he's a question mark, the rest HAVE had a chance and were found wanting. Odell Beckham Jr. proved immediately he was a #1. Hilton proved immediately he was a top threat on our team even with Reggie on the team still. These guys proved they are no Hilton or Beckham Jr. or the myriad of other WR's in the league who proved right out of the gate, whether they were draft picks or undrafted like Antonio Brown, that they were top end WRs. Our guys have proven otherwise.
  6. I can only recall one recent home Thursday game.. and it was Thanksgiving against Pittsburgh without Luck. We seem to ALWAYS get hosed on away games in big games. Once again, ALL our national games are away! And week 1 we will be the National Game on CBS at 4pm. That isn't an accident. Sure, part of it is just the schedule we were stuck with, but they could have balanced it with a home Thursday night game. I suspect with a much better team, we go 10-6 but still win the division based on Tie-Breaker. Trap Game? Probably TN, since Luck can't beat them forever. And it looks like the most probable loss will be San Diego. We never play well there (or against them period) and we rarely win our home opener. The only way I can see us winning more than 10 is if we have another miracle draft AND we can keep our line intact all year. Then we could bump up as much as 2 more wins. If Luck is healthy and our line is healthy I can't see us having less than 9 wins no matter what. Luck is pretty much a lock for 8 wins with no help. So let's see who we land in the draft and see if that changes our fortunes at all.
  7. sigh... you really didn't even read my post... try again.
  8. That was definitely the play of the game.
  9. Well, in a way ALL these guys are "proven" as they have "proven" they aren't good enough to be #1, #2 or #3 yet in their collective careers. We have Hilton, a Proven #1 and the rest have proven they are not good enough up to this point in their careers. We have to hope they will change. The unproven WR's will be any we draft and they can start proving themselves in OTA's and training camp going forward.
  10. Yeah, I was surprised he didn't bounce back big in KC... don't know if it was that he dropped off after injury or the kid that took the spot was just that good. Ware definitely had some excellent games before getting hurt. I also suspect that KC just knows how to block for the running game much better than most.
  11. Yeah, we ALL know who they are... don't sweat it and we ALL feel the same way. I just happen to be willing to point it out because I don't need to validate my existence by getting "likes" on a message board. Some people EARN them, but most virtue signal to get them just like they do on the rest of social media.
  12. You've never watched Mike Florio's PFT DAILY 3 hour show (2 on TV, one on Radio/Podcast)? Until just recently, you never watched Dan Patricks DAILY 3 hour TV Show? Uh, that was (until April 1st) 6 hours a day talking either entirely, or the majority about Football. Additionally they were partnered part of the week with Chris Simms who did another multiple hour podcast about Football and he had a similarly negative view of Irsay. He now appears exclusively for NBC, but back then shared his time with NBC and Bleacher Report. But "goodness gracious" I guess 6 hours plus (as there are more football related NBC podcasts like The Daily Line and The Safety Blitz plus Malone talks a lot of football in addition to people appearing on NBC that I am not even counting) DAILY sort of uh.. I don't know.. refutes your credibility above just a bit.
  13. Don't sweat it man... anyone who actually cares about this back and forth isn't worth caring about in the first place... you have the hottest topic on the site... it's BORING around here... it's silly season and people who get all riled up over any message board must have nothing else going on in life. Watch any mainstream news channel and you'll get far more misleading and downright lies about everything non stop. I heard the same thing you did and it WAS presented all over the place as if he'd said it in the context you thought. I don't hold you responsible because the sports networks are lying sleazebags. NBC in particular has had it in for Irsay for a long time. PFT is especially biased and misleading daily. A simple comment letting you know you misunderstood his comment would have been legit, the rest is virtue signaling tripe.
  14. When we claim someone off the waiver wire, what does it mean? Do we pay anything/lose anything by doing that? If not, why not claim nearly every reasonably competent player available at your spot? I am just trying to understand, not advocating doing that. Thanks.
  15. It would be like the NFL to give us three national Sunday/Monday games all AWAY. That would suck. Is this the schedule or just made up? If it is made up, not understanding how any predictions could be made?
  16. I think our division is going to be brutal as is our schedule. Even with an improved team, we could struggle to have a top seed even if we win the division. I could see us ravage each other to a division winner with 10 wins max. That would mean one home game and then right back to NE or SD or KC. I also would not discredit Pittsburgh like so many others. I would not remotely be surprised if they won their division again. And they will have an easier schedule than normal for them playing the 2nd place schedule.
  17. True.. but it also showed a blind spot they finally (sort of) addressed with Inman. Imagine if we'd fixed THAT gaping hole along with the O-Line. Why did we lose to KC? Because Luck needed some WR help and TE help (since we'd long since ALSO lost TE depth and our true #1 receiving TE many people seem to forget). I fear we have the SAME problem again this year, with Funchess taking Inman's place (and being less reliable). And we were injury prone at TE, so here's hoping we draft a WR and TE early enough in the draft for them to be reliable targets this year. If we go a third year with not enough WR/TE talent come playoff race time to compete, that would be a shame. Our schedule is MUCH MUCH harder this year.
  18. If he sucks and becomes a low level FA picked up for (relatively speaking) pennies on the dollar, I don't think it results in a 3rd round pick automatically does it? Please educate me as I honestly have never fully understood what rates as a 3rd round (I didn't even realize you could get that high of a pick in a case like this) or a 7th round compensatory pick? Frankly, I am not even sure I agree with giving compensatory picks to a team unable to sign their own people for whatever reason it may be. Why does everyone who runs their team more effectively pushed down all those picks in each proceeding round because another team couldn't or didn't choose to resign someone? Maybe you are the guy to finally explain it clearly and precisely to those of us who don't quite get how it works. (The "why" is a whole additional topic I don't expect you to explain).
  19. You made my point. He got paid market value for signing a WR that early in FA. Not more nor less based on our cap room. The cap room didn't figure in anything beyond whether we can afford to sign a player at market value. We don't pay more than market value because we can waste cap space. We would NEVER waste cap space, no matter how much we have with this bunch of serious minded business people. We'll have to disagree on this one. Life will go on. Frank really wanted him. Ballard indicated his price was up due to the timing of the signing during silly season, not because we had cap space to blow. But he was determined to give our coach what he asked for. That's a great sign that times are very different from the last regime.
  20. I would expect all fans want that. Not all fans come to discuss stuff during the offseason. If we're not putting our opinions on how things are being done or not done, what are we even doing here? You've been around a long time.. why are you here if not to agree, disagree, suggest, refute and chatter on about the all things Colts? I think all is fair game if you aren't making personal attacks and simply bantering the topic du jour. It hadn't occurred to me initially that we should have gotten a second year option attached to the deal. It may be because Funchess refused, it may be for a reason we don't collectively know/understand. But isn't the point to discuss what is going on and offer our opinions? It isn't like only a tiny number of people questioned both the player and the price including many veteran analysts all over the NFL universe. So it isn't 2 people complaining about anything. We're discussing ramification and alternatives. Fanboys simply shake their heads in sync with any actions their team makes, and trolls simply viciously attack both the actions and the people involved in everything. I don't think either of us qualify as either of those things. Half the time we don't even agree with each other, but when he's right, he's right. I enjoy the debate because if you are unwilling to talk to people who see things differently than you do, you live in an echo chamber bubble and learn nothing. We see that playing out all around us in the real world.
  21. No.. I disgree 100% with your comment here. Our Cap room has ZERO to do with whether we are overspending on a player. The player has value, irregardless as to whether we have cap space or not. You don't waste money just because you have cap space. Can you imagine the disastrous contracts that would result? Plus, Ballard answers to his boss, Jim Irsay, who is paying those prices out of his pocket. Do you really think for a single moment that he's going to say "heck, we have lots of cap space, go ahead and blow my money on someone not worth it, it's just money!" Seriously man, you need to take a step back from your argument and re-evaluate. Funchess is worth what his market value is, nothing more nor less and the market doesn't care about anyone else's cap space.
  22. Why make that comment to me to try and discredit MY comment? Please show me where I ever said to bring in Bell or anyone else? I certainly didn't want to throw money at any used RB, and I asked the question about Collins and Mosely simply from their playing ability, I even stated we should never have paid them what they got. I was simply finding something interesting to discuss AFTER the fact when it came up on 1070 the fan's coverage. So lots of dumb things are said here every day, but don't tag me on someone else's dumb comment to try and make a point to attack something I said. I think if Funchess comes here and sucks, we blew the money. Most people were surprised he commanded that much. I think we got an answer why from Ballard who said "that's the start of FA for you" in an interview addressing the size of his deal based on his drops and performance. Reich had a massive desire for him, so Ballard spent a lot to get him, possibly even more that he alone would have paid. It is a nice sign to see a GM actually try to give the coach what the coach is looking for compared to our previous GM, so even he gave a nod to the idea that was a costly 1 year deal for a WR off a really bad year of drops. So what is your beef? Argue my point, don't talk about someone else's nonsense and try to paint me with it.
  23. So then... why bring it up in the first place? I was crediting you because had you not brought it up, it wouldn't have seemed like a bad idea? Now you're saying I shouldn't have thought much of your comment in the first place? Confused?
  24. What is his name? Also, he seemed fast if Deebo is 4.5 or slightly better that kid looked A LOT faster.. people talk straight line track speed, but this was on a field with pads on and he was a good 10-20 yards back vertically and horizontally (i.e. an angle that he had to adjust to) so the angle may have helped a bit initially, regardless he was flying! Thanks Mr. D.
  25. He does have that "too good to be true" vibe doesn't he? Of course NE found a way to win a Super Bowl with CP... just shows it's ALL SYSTEM and a QB who has done it so long you can rarely surprise him let alone fool him.
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