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A Concerning Statistic


Coffeedrinker

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I know it's a stat but not all stats are created equal.  There are some stats that over time have shown to have a true correlation on wins and losses in the NFL.  One of those stats is TOs, usually the team that wins the TO battle wins the game.  Another stat that is proven to correlate to wins is Yards per play.  A top level offense will average 5.6 to 6.+ yards per play, average teams are in that 5.1 to 5.5 YPP and below average offenses are <=5.0 YPP.  So far in the preseason the Colts are the worst in the NFL at 3.8 YPP.  That is horrible.

 

I know, many of you will say it's because of the running game or because of the back-ups.  And they are a part of it but none of the QBs have been helping it.

 

MH leads the Colts at 6.7 yards per attempt.  Which is average.  Luck is at 6.2 yards per attempt, Harnish, as expected, is the worst at 4.4 yards per attempt.

 

I know it's the preseason and part of what the preseason is for is to work out those kinks but it's still concerning, especially being that low.  I looked back through 2009 and this is the worst YPP the Colts have had in that time frame at least.  The closest was last year at 4.4 YPP

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Your last paragraph is key! I'm not dogging on you personally but...

WE HAVE ONLY HAD 2 GAMES IN PRESEASON....(where Harnish has played the most out of any QB and same for our 3rd string which obviously are very bad.)

We do people freak out so much..... Seriously!?

It's is NOT A BIG deal..

Really game 3 is the ONLY game that should matter statistics wise if any in the preseason.

ITS OKAY PEOPLE!

Bravo promises........

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Your last paragraph is key! I'm not dogging on you personally but...

WE HAVE ONLY HAD 2 GAMES IN PRESEASON....(where Harnish has played the most out of any QB and same for our 3rd string which obviously are very bad.)

We do people freak out so much..... Seriously!?

It's is NOT A BIG deal..

Really game 3 is the ONLY game that should matter statistics wise if any in the preseason.

ITS OKAY PEOPLE!

Bravo promises........

Who's freaking out?  It's a stat that matters and the Colts happen to be the worst in the NFL.  Other teams are in the same situation, most have only played 2 games with their 3rd string playing most of the snaps and yet they are still better than the Colts. 

 

The first string has contributed more to the lowest YPP in the league than the 2nd string.

 

I figured this may become a thread where football fans could talk about some of the reasons, especially from the starters, but instead I get the responses that require no thought like, it's the preseason who cares, once the starts are in it'll be different.

 

Oh well.

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One thing we cannot overlook is the goal of the play calling in each pre-season game.

 

Last game vs the Giants, the TEs were never a factor for the Colts in the passing game when the first unit was on, a couple of times Luck did not look at an open Fleener and an open Allen farther than 20 yards and once when he did, that seam pass was a tough one to thread the needle on and catch, so incompletion.

 

Without Reggie and TY, odds are the OC was setting up plays more to the strengths of Nicks, Whalen and Moncrief and those could be underneath more to see what they could do in terms of YAC and possession. The goal was to get Luck to be hit less and get rid of the ball faster, which meant shorter passes and shorter drops, and could also be because of 2 OL starters being down.

 

Now, when TY is back, and when the TEs especially Fleener get involved in the passing game more, and a healthy OL, I expect more routes called that would test the deep waters with more step drops, and that will truly impact the YPP stat when it is all said and done. I think that is the logical reason for the YPP stat, IMO.

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Who's freaking out? It's a stat that matters and the Colts happen to be the worst in the NFL. Other teams are in the same situation, most have only played 2 games with their 3rd string playing most of the snaps and yet they are still better than the Colts.

The first string has contributed more to the lowest YPP in the league than the 2nd string.

I figured this may become a thread where football fans could talk about some of the reasons, especially from the starters, but instead I get the responses that require no thought like, it's the preseason who cares, once the starts are in it'll be different.

Oh well.

you did say yourself our YPP wasn't very good last year and I think we turned out pretty good :)
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I know it's a stat but not all stats are created equal. There are some stats that over time have shown to have a true correlation on wins and losses in the NFL. One of those stats is TOs, usually the team that wins the TO battle wins the game. Another stat that is proven to correlate to wins is Yards per play. A top level offense will average 5.6 to 6.+ yards per play, average teams are in that 5.1 to 5.5 YPP and below average offenses are <=5.0 YPP. So far in the preseason the Colts are the worst in the NFL at 3.8 YPP. That is horrible.

I know, many of you will say it's because of the running game or because of the back-ups. And they are a part of it but none of the QBs have been helping it.

MH leads the Colts at 6.7 yards per attempt. Which is average. Luck is at 6.2 yards per attempt, Harnish, as expected, is the worst at 4.4 yards per attempt.

I know it's the preseason and part of what the preseason is for is to work out those kinks but it's still concerning, especially being that low. I looked back through 2009 and this is the worst YPP the Colts have had in that time frame at least. The closest was last year at 4.4 YPP

Have you seen a breakdown per quarter? Anecdotally, the starting offense seems to be winning most of their possessions, which isn't very quantitative but that's how I usually judge the preseason.

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you did say yourself our YPP wasn't very good last year and I think we turned out pretty good :)

Nope it wasn't during the preseason (4.4) and it did get better during the season (5.6 I believe) but that is still average and it showed during the season needing all the late game heroics.

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Nope it wasn't during the preseason (4.4) and it did get better during the season (5.6 I believe) but that is still average and it showed during the season needing all the late game heroics.

I'm also looking at our o line they need these preseason games to gel together got 2 rookies in there this year
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One thing we cannot overlook is the goal of the play calling in each pre-season game.

 

Last game vs the Giants, the TEs were never a factor for the Colts in the passing game when the first unit was on, a couple of times Luck did not look at an open Fleener and an open Allen farther than 20 yards and once when he did, that seam pass was a tough one to thread the needle on and catch, so incompletion.

 

Without Reggie and TY, odds are the OC was setting up plays more to the strengths of Nicks, Whalen and Moncrief and those could be underneath more to see what they could do in terms of YAC and possession. The goal was to get Luck to be hit less and get rid of the ball faster, which meant shorter passes and shorter drops, and could also be because of 2 OL starters being down.

 

Now, when TY is back, and when the TEs especially Fleener get involved in the passing game more, and a healthy OL, I expect more routes called that would test the deep waters with more step drops, and that will truly impact the YPP stat when it is all said and done. I think that is the logical reason for the YPP stat, IMO.

 

 

So far its' been vanilla offenses and no game planning.  Don't look into it too much.  If we're still hitting the 3.8 yard mark 3 or 4 games into the season, then we can worry about YPP.

Vanilla offenses, lack of game planning, trying different things, people playing in games that won't be in the NFL in a couple of weeks are the reasons why YPP for all teams are lower in the preseason than they are during the regular season.  

 

What is concerning is the Colts being the worst in the NFL at this point.  All that means is poor execution on the part of the offense..

 

On the flip side of that, something that is excellent to see if that the Colts Defense is 2nd best in the NFL in YPP allowed at 4.0.

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Nope it wasn't during the preseason (4.4) and it did get better during the season (5.6 I believe) but that is still average and it showed during the season needing all the late game heroics.

Just did the math for our starters:

Luck - 23 attempts, 142 yards

Richardson- 14 attempts, 34 yards

Total - 37 attempts, 176 yards = 4.76 YPP

Point out any errors in my math, but it looks like the starters are doing ok.

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Vanilla offenses, lack of game planning, trying different things, people playing in games that won't be in the NFL in a couple of weeks are the reasons why YPP for all teams are lower in the preseason than they are during the regular season.  

 

What is concerning is the Colts being the worst in the NFL at this point.  All that means is poor execution on the part of the offense..

 

On the flip side of that, something that is excellent to see if that the Colts Defense is 2nd best in the NFL in YPP allowed at 4.0.

 

How many of those offenses have both their No.1 and No. 2 wide outs not playing a down for an entire game? Heck, we saw how anemic the Giants offense was against us, and they had a big 73 yard run for Rashad Jennings vs the Steelers that might put their YPP ahead of us.

 

I just don't think we have had enough big plays to skew our own YPP. I am not as worried till the same trend happens the first 2 games which I doubt will.

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How many of those offenses have both their No.1 and No. 2 wide outs not playing a down for an entire game? Heck, we saw how anemic the Giants offense was against us, and they had a big 73 yard run for Rashad Jennings vs the Steelers that might put their YPP ahead of us.

I just don't think we have had enough big plays to skew our own YPP. I am not as worried till the same trend happens the first 2 games which I doubt will.

Also alot of other teams have played their starters alot longer then us in our fist preseason game Luck hardly played at all
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Who's freaking out? It's a stat that matters and the Colts happen to be the worst in the NFL. Other teams are in the same situation, most have only played 2 games with their 3rd string playing most of the snaps and yet they are still better than the Colts.

The first string has contributed more to the lowest YPP in the league than the 2nd string.

I figured this may become a thread where football fans could talk about some of the reasons, especially from the starters, but instead I get the responses that require no thought like, it's the preseason who cares, once the starts are in it'll be different.

Oh well.

Hope this is worthy enough to post in your topic and it seems like I put some "thought" into it.

I mean I respect that you took the time to look up the stats but they seriously do not usually translate to the regular season "most" of the time. I also said don't take it as a personal attack which it seems you did.

Our 3rd strings have played more than anyone else and they are clearly not up to par with the other teams 2nd or 3rd string. Also with 2 offensive lineman and Reggie out that will hamper the 1st string who have only played a LARGE total of FIVE(5) drives together so far.

I'm just saying to everyone... Don't worry although it happens every year in the preseason.

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Who's freaking out?  It's a stat that matters and the Colts happen to be the worst in the NFL.  Other teams are in the same situation, most have only played 2 games with their 3rd string playing most of the snaps and yet they are still better than the Colts. 

 

The first string has contributed more to the lowest YPP in the league than the 2nd string.

 

I figured this may become a thread where football fans could talk about some of the reasons, especially from the starters, but instead I get the responses that require no thought like, it's the preseason who cares, once the starts are in it'll be different.

 

Oh well.

Id be worried if it were late September.

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How many of those offenses have both their No.1 and No. 2 wide outs not playing a down for an entire game? Heck, we saw how anemic the Giants offense was against us, and they had a big 73 yard run for Rashad Jennings vs the Steelers that might put their YPP ahead of us.

 

I just don't think we have had enough big plays to skew our own YPP. I am not as worried till the same trend happens the first 2 games which I doubt will.

I really don't know, I didn't look it up.  And I don't expect the YPP to remain the same in the regular season, I just don't want to see the Colts be at or near the bottom of the league in that category during the regular season.

 

The reasons for it are varied, IMO, personnel definitely has something to do with it, but it's not the only factor nor is it the primary factor, IMO.  Lack of big plays does contribute, so is there a reason for lack of big plays other than Hilton not playing against the Giants?

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Hope this is worthy enough to post in your topic and it seems like I put some "thought" into it.

I mean I respect that you took the time to look up the stats but they seriously do not usually translate to the regular season "most" of the time. I also said don't take it as a personal attack which it seems you did.

Our 3rd strings have played more than anyone else and they are clearly not up to par with the other teams 2nd or 3rd string. Also with 2 offensive lineman and Reggie out that will hamper the 1st string who have only played a LARGE total of FIVE(5) drives together so far.

I'm just saying to everyone... Don't worry although it happens every year in the preseason.

A little more thought in this post.  But it does translate.  Last year in the preseason the Colts were at the lower end of average for YPP at 4.4, during the regular season they were at the lower end of average for YPP at 5.3 (I said 5.6 above but I looked it up).  

 

And I didn't take anything as a personal attack just claiming I'm not freaking out about anything, just posting a concerning stat.  I did not make any conclusions about that I thought this would translate into a horrible season for the Colts or that they would only win so many games because it; just posting a stat and explaining why it's concerning.

 

Lastly, this isn't meant as a personal attack and don't take offense but you're a dufus.

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I know it's a stat but not all stats are created equal.  There are some stats that over time have shown to have a true correlation on wins and losses in the NFL.  One of those stats is TOs, usually the team that wins the TO battle wins the game.  Another stat that is proven to correlate to wins is Yards per play.  A top level offense will average 5.6 to 6.+ yards per play, average teams are in that 5.1 to 5.5 YPP and below average offenses are <=5.0 YPP.  So far in the preseason the Colts are the worst in the NFL at 3.8 YPP.  That is horrible.

 

I know, many of you will say it's because of the running game or because of the back-ups.  And they are a part of it but none of the QBs have been helping it.

 

MH leads the Colts at 6.7 yards per attempt.  Which is average.  Luck is at 6.2 yards per attempt, Harnish, as expected, is the worst at 4.4 yards per attempt.

 

I know it's the preseason and part of what the preseason is for is to work out those kinks but it's still concerning, especially being that low.  I looked back through 2009 and this is the worst YPP the Colts have had in that time frame at least.  The closest was last year at 4.4 YPP

 

Preseason Stats are worthless this is just practice , Present your case 4 games into the real season  .

 

 

I mean listen, we're sitting here talking about practice, not a game, not a game, not a game, but we're talking about practice.”

 

Thank you A .Iverson   

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I know it's a stat but not all stats are created equal.  There are some stats that over time have shown to have a true correlation on wins and losses in the NFL.  One of those stats is TOs, usually the team that wins the TO battle wins the game.  Another stat that is proven to correlate to wins is Yards per play.  A top level offense will average 5.6 to 6.+ yards per play, average teams are in that 5.1 to 5.5 YPP and below average offenses are <=5.0 YPP.  So far in the preseason the Colts are the worst in the NFL at 3.8 YPP.  That is horrible.

 

I know, many of you will say it's because of the running game or because of the back-ups.  And they are a part of it but none of the QBs have been helping it.

 

MH leads the Colts at 6.7 yards per attempt.  Which is average.  Luck is at 6.2 yards per attempt, Harnish, as expected, is the worst at 4.4 yards per attempt.

 

I know it's the preseason and part of what the preseason is for is to work out those kinks but it's still concerning, especially being that low.  I looked back through 2009 and this is the worst YPP the Colts have had in that time frame at least.  The closest was last year at 4.4 YPP

if we use the tight ends more  to catch passes and do more short passes our completion rate may go up. they should get some yards after the catch. will this help our yards per play?

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A little more thought in this post. But it does translate. Last year in the preseason the Colts were at the lower end of average for YPP at 4.4, during the regular season they were at the lower end of average for YPP at 5.3 (I said 5.6 above but I looked it up).

And I didn't take anything as a personal attack just claiming I'm not freaking out about anything, just posting a concerning stat. I did not make any conclusions about that I thought this would translate into a horrible season for the Colts or that they would only win so many games because it; just posting a stat and explaining why it's concerning.

Lastly, this isn't meant as a personal attack and don't take offense but you're a dufus.

That's fine then!

My post was only for people who are freaking out becuase even if you arnt, you know someone in Colts Nation is..

Also don't take this as a personal attack either..... You gotta stop drinking so much coffee, it's getting to your head a little! ;)

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A little more thought in this post.  But it does translate.  Last year in the preseason the Colts were at the lower end of average for YPP at 4.4, during the regular season they were at the lower end of average for YPP at 5.3 (I said 5.6 above but I looked it up).  

 

And I didn't take anything as a personal attack just claiming I'm not freaking out about anything, just posting a concerning stat.  I did not make any conclusions about that I thought this would translate into a horrible season for the Colts or that they would only win so many games because it; just posting a stat and explaining why it's concerning.

 

Lastly, this isn't meant as a personal attack and don't take offense but you're a dufus.

I'm not surprised by your stats from last year.  The Colts went stretches where they wold go 3-and-out:  no running game, no Reggie, no Allen and bad play calling, poor OLine play = sacks and incomplete passes.  Not to mention Luck is still a young QB prone to some inconsistency.  The Colts don't have a lot of players that can get YAC either.  I think it all starts with consistent play by the OLine.

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I know it's a stat but not all stats are created equal.  There are some stats that over time have shown to have a true correlation on wins and losses in the NFL.  One of those stats is TOs, usually the team that wins the TO battle wins the game.  Another stat that is proven to correlate to wins is Yards per play.  A top level offense will average 5.6 to 6.+ yards per play, average teams are in that 5.1 to 5.5 YPP and below average offenses are <=5.0 YPP.  So far in the preseason the Colts are the worst in the NFL at 3.8 YPP.  That is horrible.

 

I know, many of you will say it's because of the running game or because of the back-ups.  And they are a part of it but none of the QBs have been helping it.

 

MH leads the Colts at 6.7 yards per attempt.  Which is average.  Luck is at 6.2 yards per attempt, Harnish, as expected, is the worst at 4.4 yards per attempt.

 

I know it's the preseason and part of what the preseason is for is to work out those kinks but it's still concerning, especially being that low.  I looked back through 2009 and this is the worst YPP the Colts have had in that time frame at least.  The closest was last year at 4.4 YPP

Yawn...

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Vanilla offenses, lack of game planning, trying different things, people playing in games that won't be in the NFL in a couple of weeks are the reasons why YPP for all teams are lower in the preseason than they are during the regular season.  

 

What is concerning is the Colts being the worst in the NFL at this point.  All that means is poor execution on the part of the offense..

 

On the flip side of that, something that is excellent to see if that the Colts Defense is 2nd best in the NFL in YPP allowed at 4.0.

 

Stats really don't matter in the preseason, especially without the third game. And that includes the defensive stats, although I find that a little more weighty, given the emphasis on defensive holding and how some other teams have been getting ripped up in the passing game. 

 

Also, looking at the Giants game, we had a 36 yarder called back by penalty. And the other deep shots by Luck were just off by a hair, or were influenced by penalties. And Hilton didn't play. And there was nothing in the run game.

 

The last thing I'm worried about is adjusted yards per pass attempt. It is an important metric, but this offense is plenty capable of making big plays in the passing game. I'm more concerned about the rushing production and efficiency, but I can't get too worked up about it, yet. 

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That's fine then!

My post was only for people who are freaking out becuase even if you arnt, you know someone in Colts Nation is..

Also don't take this as a personal attack either..... You gotta stop drinking so much coffee, it's getting to your head a little! ;)

For the record, I don't really think you're a dufus.

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Stats really don't matter in the preseason, especially without the third game. And that includes the defensive stats, although I find that a little more weighty, given the emphasis on defensive holding and how some other teams have been getting ripped up in the passing game. 

 

Also, looking at the Giants game, we had a 36 yarder called back by penalty. And the other deep shots by Luck were just off by a hair, or were influenced by penalties. And Hilton didn't play. And there was nothing in the run game.

 

The last thing I'm worried about is adjusted yards per pass attempt. It is an important metric, but this offense is plenty capable of making big plays in the passing game. I'm more concerned about the rushing production and efficiency, but I can't get too worked up about it, yet. 

I agree stats by themselves don't matter and if the Colts were average it would not be a cause for concern.  But anytime a team is at the bottom it's a cause for concern.  That is what I've tried to say several times.  3.8 yards per play is not as concerning as the Colts are the worst in the NFL at this point.  Every team is going through the same things as the Colts, yet the Colts are still the worst.  Is that an indicator of how the season will go?  We will see.  I just think it's something to watch Saturday and in the early part of the season.

 

On your 2nd paragraph, all that is true but that stuff happens during the season as well.

 

This last paragraph is confusing, you are worried about running efficiency in the preseason but offensive efficiency in the preseason doesn't matter. 

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I agree stats by themselves don't matter and if the Colts were average it would not be a cause for concern.  But anytime a team is at the bottom it's a cause for concern.  That is what I've tried to say several times.  3.8 yards per play is not as concerning as the Colts are the worst in the NFL at this point.  Every team is going through the same things as the Colts, yet the Colts are still the worst.  Is that an indicator of how the season will go?  We will see.  I just think it's something to watch Saturday and in the early part of the season.

 

On your 2nd paragraph, all that is true but that stuff happens during the season as well.

 

This last paragraph is confusing, you are worried about running efficiency in the preseason but offensive efficiency in the preseason doesn't matter. 

 

I get what you mean about it sticking out to you. I just don't think you can draw anything from it, given that it's preseason, the first team has been on the field for five possessions so far, and the two best receivers on the team didn't play against the Giants.

 

Also, the Chargers, Chiefs and Packers were in the bottom ten in YPP last preseason. It's not necessarily a precursor, especially for a team with a good QB and good offensive weapons. To me, it's very easy to shrug off. You could be the Niners, averaging 1.5 points/game...

 

The last paragraph, I'm saying that I think the passing attack will be able to produce. There is proven ability, between Luck and the weapons in the passing game. When the team needs to throw the ball, they are more than capable of doing so. I'm more concerned with the rushing attack. But we're still only looking at two preseason games, so far, so even there, I'm not ready to sound the alarm yet. 

 

More than anything, I think this stat tells us that the third team offense is terrible. So if, at any point, we're dependent on Chandler Harnish and Josh Lenz to carry the offense, it won't go well. But I think we all know that already.

 

Last thing, I can be a stathead at times. Just not in the preseason. If someone was willing to break down how the Colts first team offense looks in comparison with the rest of the league, I might be interested. But I still wouldn't read too much into.

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I'm not surprised by your stats from last year.  The Colts went stretches where they wold go 3-and-out:  no running game, no Reggie, no Allen and bad play calling, poor OLine play = sacks and incomplete passes.  Not to mention Luck is still a young QB prone to some inconsistency.  The Colts don't have a lot of players that can get YAC either.  I think it all starts with consistent play by the OLine.

Consistent oline play is a key, I agree. A s well as Luck getting a rhythm going with any receiver not named Wayne or Hilton

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I get what you mean about it sticking out to you. I just don't think you can draw anything from it, given that it's preseason, the first team has been on the field for five possessions so far, and the two best receivers on the team didn't play against the Giants.

 

Also, the Chargers, Chiefs and Packers were in the bottom ten in YPP last preseason. It's not necessarily a precursor, especially for a team with a good QB and good offensive weapons. To me, it's very easy to shrug off. You could be the Niners, averaging 1.5 points/game...

 

I'm not drawing any conclusions from it or making any predictions about how the season will go.

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I'm not drawing any conclusions from it or making any predictions about how the season will go.

 

I'm sure you're not, based on what I know of you. But you did start your post by pointing out the correlation between wins and YPP. So I guess what I'm saying is that I don't think there's a real correlation between regular season wins and preseason YPP, and as such, I'm not concerned. As you said, the Colts were only at 4.4 YPP in 2013 preseason, yet they won 11 games, plus a playoff game (which required a bunch of offense).

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Who's freaking out?  It's a stat that matters and the Colts happen to be the worst in the NFL.  Other teams are in the same situation, most have only played 2 games with their 3rd string playing most of the snaps and yet they are still better than the Colts. 

 

The first string has contributed more to the lowest YPP in the league than the 2nd string.

 

I figured this may become a thread where football fans could talk about some of the reasons, especially from the starters, but instead I get the responses that require no thought like, it's the preseason who cares, once the starts are in it'll be different.

 

Oh well.

 

 TRich is not a very good runner and our O-Line may pass block better as a unit, how couldn`t they, but we will be a low ypc run team.

 

 I am not the least concerned about it because we have a walk in the park to the Playoffs,  it is what it is, and we will play with what we have. It is a learning season for much of our roster so bla bla bla.

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