Playoff Predictor/Simulator (538): Colts #11 in AFC, and 38% of chance of playoffs

[AwesomeAustin]

We basically have to run the table to control our own destiny. Haven’t messed with the simulator bc so many possibilities remain.  That’s probably not going to happen.  We are 3-4 at home so far with NE and Raiders to go.  To me that’s where the season has been lost.  It’s absolutely inexcusable for a team with playoff aspirations to lose at least 4 games at home. I hope we are still in it bc wife and I have tickets to the raiders game. First time to LOS and if it’s a playoff atmosphere the place should be electric. 

[OffensivelyPC]

Well before Sunday, everyone predicted that we needed to go 4-2 to finish up the season in order to secure a wildcard berth.  Now it's 4-1.  But we're not getting near that if we insist on the mistakes we were making on Sunday.  Doable, but we've put ourselves in a corner.  I suppose we could get lucky and go 3-2 while the Titans suck it up and lose out.

[TaylorStillTruckedYou]

3 hours ago, Stephen said:

Yea because if they get a double digit lead will they be able to hold it

Exactly

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Titans keep getting hit with injuries. It’s going to be interesting if they can recover and win a few games coming down the stretch. Still not ruling division out with this mess.

 

 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Not sure if this has been mentioned but Colts have the second best record against the AFC in the conference. That should help them if they keep winning the AFC matchups.

 

Just looking at this Broncos and Chargers play each other so a win against Texans will put Chargers or Broncos behind us. Raiders are at home against WFT so not sure they will lose but if they did we would move up to the 8th spot. The week after while we are on the bye raiders have a more difficult game. So that should help colts if they lose and we are on bye. Someone mentioned above the next two weeks is where colts can make their move. Let’s not forget bills and pats still play twice two. Even if they split that would be good. But if one of them can win both games that helps the colts a ton.
 

 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Steelers I think are done so this doesn’t mean much but did anyone see the scuffle watt had with burrow. He was right in Burrows face.

 

 

[2006Coltsbestever]

1 hour ago, Wentzszn said:

Not sure if this has been mentioned but Colts have the second best record against the AFC in the conference. That should help them if they keep winning the AFC matchups.

 

Just looking at this Broncos and Chargers play each other so a win against Texans will put Chargers or Broncos behind us. Raiders are at home against WFT so not sure they will lose but if they did we would move up to the 8th spot. The week after while we are on the bye raiders have a more difficult game. So that should help colts if they lose and we are on bye. Someone mentioned above the next two weeks is where colts can make their move. Let’s not forget bills and pats still play twice two. Even if they split that would be good. But if one of them can win both games that helps the colts a ton.
 

 

This looks good despite dropping yesterday's game. Remember we still play the Raiders at LOS, we beat them advantage us. Broncos are going to lose at least 2 more games/probably 3, they still play the Chiefs twice and at Chargers. We also have the tiebreaker over the Bills who have to play the Pats twice and at Tampa, they will lose at least 2 games, they aren't sweeping the Pats and won't win at Tampa.

 

Bengals are the funny one, they are 7-4 and we are 6-6. Bengals do still play the Chiefs, Ravens, and 49ers but all in Cincy. Maybe we should hope the Pats sweep the Bills  , I know sounds funny but that would kill their chances of getting in because they aren't winning at Tampa either.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

7 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

This looks good despite dropping yesterday's game. Remember we still play the Raiders at LOS, we beat them advantage us. Broncos are going to lose at least 2 more games/probably 3, they still play the Chiefs twice and at Chargers. We also have the tiebreaker over the Bills who have to play the Pats twice and at Tampa, they will lose at least 2 games, they aren't sweeping the Pats and won't win at Tampa.

 

Bengals are the funny one, they are 7-4 and we are 6-6. Bengals do still play the Chiefs, Ravens, and 49ers but all in Cincy. Maybe we should hope the Pats sweep the Bills  , I know sounds funny but that would kill their chances of getting in because they aren't winning at Tampa either.

I think Teddy got hurt yesterday. Not sure if he came back or lock finished. So you know? Lock didn’t look great.
 

What do you think about if really would help the colts if Bills or Pats won both those games instead of splitting?  That bills Tampa game could be huge for the colts considering what if they split with pats.

 

Going  to assume Bengals get in.

[2006Coltsbestever]

7 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

I think Teddy got hurt yesterday. Not sure if he came back or lock finished. So you know? Lock didn’t look great.
 

What do you think about if really would help the colts if Bills or Pats won both those games instead of splitting?  That bills Tampa game could be huge for the colts considering what if they split with pats.

If Pats win both that helps us bigtime because the Bills are 7-4. Having said that Pats are 8-4 so if the Bills sweep them and we beat the Pats that would give the Pats 7 losses and we would own the tiebreaker over Belichick. At 10-7 we would have tie breakers over both in a WildCard situation. 

[chad72]

11 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

I think Teddy got hurt yesterday. Not sure if he came back or lock finished. So you know? Lock didn’t look great.
 

What do you think about if really would help the colts if Bills or Pats won both those games instead of splitting?  That bills Tampa game could be huge for the colts considering what if they split with pats.

 

Going  to assume Bengals get in.

So are you telling me I am going to have to root for the Patriots AND Tom Brady? 

 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

1 minute ago, chad72 said:

So are you telling me I am going to have to root for the Patriots AND Tom Brady? 

 

At this point yeah. Pats still have Bills twice and us.

 

OMG you guys are Titans better be grateful they have a bye this week lol.  WTH is going on. They lost Jenkins for a bit now this. 
 

 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

10 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

If Pats win both that helps us bigtime because the Bills are 7-4. Having said that Pats are 8-4 so if the Bills sweep them and we beat the Pats that would give the Pats 7 losses and we would own the tiebreaker over Belichick. At 10-7 we would have tie breakers over both in a WildCard situation. 

Now that I am really thinking about this Colts need one team to win both games.

[2006Coltsbestever]

4 minutes ago, chad72 said:

So are you telling me I am going to have to root for the Patriots AND Tom Brady? 

 

Yep 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Gues what other team has problems against good teams?

 

 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

One other thing I haven’t seen mentioned. Which is kind of huge. The teams ahead of us at 6-5 already had their bye weeks so we have technically played one more game. The week that we are on our bye week is going to be where we see if end up going around anyone and end up as the 7th seed. Teams at 6-5 will then be caught up in games played.

[Tore]

Having seen a few of the other teams in action that we are playing later on, I actually think we have an excellent chance at the playoffs, far better than the projections say. There's not really one outstanding team that looks unbeatable this year, we've probably played two of the strongest the last couple of games, and more than held our own.

 

I think this team can go toe-to-toe with any of the teams in the league. We'll probably fall short on defence in terms of actually winning the big one, but there's no doubt in my mind that this team is playoff-ready.

 

We might actually be better off taking the WC-route as well, as it seems the outdoor conditions in December/January might be even better suited to us and our run-game than inside a dome. 

 

Tough loss yesterday of course, but I see more positives than negatives. I love the way our coaches and players speak about each other too, and the journey they are on. I think focusing on progress and getting better every week is the way to go, not getting caught too much up in single games during single seasons.

 

Have we gotten better since Reich's/Ballard's arrival? My eyes say yes. Have we gotten better during the year? Again yes. I think we'll go at least 4-1 from here, and that should be enough for a playoff spot. Cut out the uncharacteristic turnovers from last night, and I actually think we can cause some damage in the playoffs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[holeymoley99]

1 hour ago, Wentzszn said:

One other thing I haven’t seen mentioned. Which is kind of huge. The teams ahead of us at 6-5 already had their bye weeks so we have technically played one more game. The week that we are on our bye week is going to be where we see if end up going around anyone and end up as the 7th seed. Teams at 6-5 will then be caught up in games played.

Yes we will make up half a game during bye week on multiple teams.....

[colts89]

I think the safe thing to say now is if the Colts run the tables against the teams we are about to face, then they are a threat to any team in the playoffs.

 

They have to run the tables though or they are watching from home. Hope they do.

[Moosejawcolt]

 

So u r asking a 500 team to win 100% of their remaining games? Hmmmm....seems like a stretch. Colts r going to have to make some big decisions at the end of the year. I hope Reich flushes this D scheme down the toilet and take drafting defensive players out of Ballard's hands. He sucks at it.

[Moosejawcolt]

4 hours ago, Tore said:

Having seen a few of the other teams in action that we are playing later on, I actually think we have an excellent chance at the playoffs, far better than the projections say. There's not really one outstanding team that looks unbeatable this year, we've probably played two of the strongest the last couple of games, and more than held our own.

 

I think this team can go toe-to-toe with any of the teams in the league. We'll probably fall short on defence in terms of actually winning the big one, but there's no doubt in my mind that this team is playoff-ready.

 

We might actually be better off taking the WC-route as well, as it seems the outdoor conditions in December/January might be even better suited to us and our run-game than inside a dome. 

 

Tough loss yesterday of course, but I see more positives than negatives. I love the way our coaches and players speak about each other too, and the journey they are on. I think focusing on progress and getting better every week is the way to go, not getting caught too much up in single games during single seasons.

 

Have we gotten better since Reich's/Ballard's arrival? My eyes say yes. Have we gotten better during the year? Again yes. I think we'll go at least 4-1 from here, and that should be enough for a playoff spot. Cut out the uncharacteristic turnovers from last night, and I actually think we can cause some damage in the playoffs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U will never run the table with this defense. The Pats, Cardinals, Raiders. Good luck. Yesterday was it.

[2006Coltsbestever]

Just now, Moosejawcolt said:

 

So u r asking a 500 team to win 100% of their remaining games? Hmmmm....seems like a stretch. Colts r going to have to make some big decisions at the end of the year. I hope Reich flushes this D scheme down the toilet and take drafting defensive players out of Ballard's hands. He sucks at it.

I don't think we run the table but because of our schedule I do see 10-7. Here are remaining games:

Texans = win IMO

Vs Pats = that is the big one

at Cards = loss

vs Raiders = win

at Jags = win

Can we beat the Pats at LOS is the key?

[boo2202]

Who have the Patriots beaten….

look at there schedule… cupcake city man. We beat them @ Lucas oil. I think the bills split with them. They haven’t played anybody!!!

 

 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

9 minutes ago, boo2202 said:

Who have the Patriots beaten….

look at there schedule… cupcake city man. We beat them @ Lucas oil. I think the bills split with them. They haven’t played anybody!!!

 

 

Going to be a big test playing them twice. It would be nice if they lost both. Or Bills lost both.

[JediXMan]

WFT have looked nice lately. If Chiefs, WFT and Bengals win. Colts will take the 7th seed with a win at Houston. 

[VaAllDay757]

2 hours ago, JediXMan said:

WFT have looked nice lately. If Chiefs, WFT and Bengals win. Colts will take the 7th seed with a win at Houston. 

Washington is in the NFC not AFC

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

6 hours ago, VaAllDay757 said:

Washington is in the NFC not AFC

Yes but they play raiders so a raiders loss puts them back behind us. That is what poster was talking about.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

9 hours ago, JediXMan said:

WFT have looked nice lately. If Chiefs, WFT and Bengals win. Colts will take the 7th seed with a win at Houston. 

The raiders WFT is the game I think is most likely to not go our way because it’s in LV. Washington always puts up a fight though. I do think we will be back in that 8th spot after Sunday but  I think chances are we will move into the 7th spot  while on our bye week. If that happens it really gives them extra motivation heading into the last four games. We have two back to back really tough prime time games after the bye week. What I like though is Colts have played very well in prime time this year.

[shasta519]

Chargers could be a problem. They are up one game and they have HOU, NYG, DEN, LV and KC left. Very easy to see them going 4-2, which would put them at 10-7. That would mean the Colts have to go 4-1 down the stretch.

 

Well, the Colts basically have to go 4-1 anyways. Getting in at 9-7 seems dubious.

 

 

[chad72]

8 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

Chargers could be a problem. They are up one game and they have HOU, NYG, DEN, LV and KC left. Very easy to see them going 4-2, which would put them at 10-7. That would mean the Colts have to go 4-1 down the stretch.

 

Well, the Colts basically have to go 4-1 anyways. Getting in at 9-8 seems dubious.

 

 

Agree, with a small correction above. 10-7 is the minimum.  

[shasta519]

2 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

Agree, with a small correction above. 10-7 is the minimum.  

 

It could happen if the Colts somehow have the tiebreakers, but I can't imagine there will be at least (3) non-division winning teams with 10 or more wins.

[EastStreet]

Just playing around with scenarios, we're likely in with one more loss. We drop below 50% with 2 losses.

And losing to an AFC will hurt, especially against NE or LVR.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

1 hour ago, shasta519 said:

Chargers could be a problem. They are up one game and they have HOU, NYG, DEN, LV and KC left. Very easy to see them going 4-2, which would put them at 10-7. That would mean the Colts have to go 4-1 down the stretch.

 

Well, the Colts basically have to go 4-1 anyways. Getting in at 9-7 seems dubious.

 

 

This is why our AFC record has to stay good. Win the AFC games and should be ok.

[IinD]

Fingers crossed we can get that 7 seed.

[Thunderbolt]

If you couldn't beat Brady, chances are you wouldn't be able to beat Bellichick's Pats, chalk this loss for sure.  They have a phenom of a rookie QB for the Pats I believe is a OROY the way his playing, I guess it's b/c his Bellichick's coached....It wouldn't surprise me if  Pats go all the way....There is a lot of challenges facing the teams along the way, but anything can happen..

 

The Colts have a mountain to climb, and it's rough getting up there.   We need a miracle....

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

5 hours ago, IinD said:

Fingers crossed we can get that 7 seed.

Broncos are playing chiefs 
Chargers playing Bengals
WFT playing the Raiders

If Chargers, Broncos, Raiders lose Colts are the 7th seed this weekend with a win. Confident  in a Bengals and Chiefs win. WFT is the one I don’t think will win. Will probably have to wait 1 more week.

[boo2202]

5 hours ago, Thunderbolt said:

If you couldn't beat Brady, chances are you wouldn't be able to beat Bellichick's Pats, chalk this loss for sure.  They have a phenom of a rookie QB for the Pats I believe is a OROY the way his playing, I guess it's b/c his Bellichick's coached....It wouldn't surprise me if  Pats go all the way....There is a lot of challenges facing the teams along the way, but anything can happen..

 

The Colts have a mountain to climb, and it's rough getting up there.   We need a miracle....

We beat New England… mark it down. I’m more worried about zona… they’ll be healthy by then 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

35 minutes ago, boo2202 said:

We beat New England… mark it down. I’m more worried about zona… they’ll be healthy by then 

Good news against AZ is we actually average more pts per game then them. We should be able to keep up. I don’t know much about their defense though.

 

Whats frustrating about last Sunday is if we had held on against Tampa we would be the 7th seed right now. We would be in such great position.

[Btown_Colt]

2 hours ago, Wentzszn said:

Good news against AZ is we actually average more pts per game then them. We should be able to keep up. I don’t know much about their defense though.

 

Whats frustrating about last Sunday is if we had held on against Tampa we would be the 7th seed right now. We would be in such great position.

Well, their starting QB has missed a couple games. Some WR named Hopkins or something, not Johnny, I know John, but this other Hopkins fella he is good but he has been missing games to due to a hamstring injury. That’s the main reason they haven’t been putting up points. I know injury excuses are only for the Colts, but it’s true.
 

But if they have their starting QB and Hopkins and AJ, and Kirk…yea they can put up plenty of points. There QB, he is like mobile and they receivers are really good. Won’t be an easy test for this D for sure. 

[Thunderbolt]

We can go all the way, just play smart football.  Reich needs to play his A game and utilized JT more.  Too bad we didn't use him more with TB, WFT beat them and they use an avg RB to do that.  Like I said, Reich needs to call this game like every game is a playoff game for us....

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

This is crazy.