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Playoff Predictor/Simulator (538): Colts #11 in AFC, and 38% of chance of playoffs


EastStreet
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538 finally launched their predictor/simulator that allows you select all outcomes of all games each week. So if you're a "what if" person, and have the patience to invest a little time predicting wins (you don't have to choose every outcome), you'll have a better understanding about what needs to happen.

 

Colts currently have the 11th best chances in the AFC at 38%.  I played around a little, and what I've found is that beating Buffalo next week is far better for our chances than beating TB. Hope we can win both, but I'll take the Buffalo win (conference W) all day if I have to choose. 

 

I'll revisit each week and post our %s. 

 

Have fun.

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-nfl-predictions/

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  • EastStreet changed the title to Playoff Predictor/Simulator (538): Colts #11 in AFC, and 38% of chance of playoffs
7 minutes ago, coltsfan_canada said:

Thx for the post it was fun trying the online tool

 

The next 2 wins and 1 Pat loss to CLE this week make a lot of diff

You're welcome.

 

Obviously we want to win every game, but wins over AFC teams (NE, Buf, LVR, Tx, Jags) are more important than AZ and TB. 

And we need to cheer for the NFC to win every match up vs an AFC team lol.. And also cheer for TN to beat NE and Pitt.

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38 minutes ago, coming on strong said:

we still have a solid shot at 9-8 to make the 7th seed that is crazy last year 11-5 barely made the playoffs .  the parody in the afc is a great thing no team is dominate .  without brady in the afc anymore its wide open we get in i have high hopes .

Just for the record: it’s parity and dominant. Otherwise, you make a good point about a near .500 record potentially qualifying for the playoffs this year. 

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7 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

We also still play the Pats so if we beat them that will be huge. After today our playoff chances will be around 45% is my guess if we win. I will take that considering we were 1-4.

 

It's says 43% currently though I don't know why the have Broncos 45% last week seemed like a fluke win lol.

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We have to beat the Bucs at home or the Patriots at home. It’s going to be hard to get more than 1 win in the Bills, Bucs, Patriots, Cardinals quartet of games. 9-8 at best, the way I see it. The second Titans game will haunt us in the end, just like the first Jaguars game did last year.

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17 minutes ago, IrsaysArmy said:

Think we need chiefs to win. I still believe the chiefs will end up winning the West. Our games against New England and Oakland are going to be playoff games 

It kinda doesn't matter right now given all three AFCW teams have 5 wins. But LVR does have the best conf w/l record of those 3. 

Best thing for us is LVR running away with the AFCW. Worst thing that could happen for us right now (AFCW) is KC win the division, and end up with the same record as LVR or LAC, both how have good conf records. 

 

In short, we need to pick one team to cheer for lol, and hope for the worst possible outcome for the other two. It would be easier or best for us I guess for LVR or LAC to run away with it. 

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38 minutes ago, chad72 said:

We have to beat the Bucs at home or the Patriots at home. It’s going to be hard to get more than 1 win in the Bills, Bucs, Patriots, Cardinals quartet of games. 9-8 at best, the way I see it. The second Titans game will haunt us in the end, just like the first Jaguars game did last year.

Whether we make the playoffs or not we absolutely need to win the Patriots game. Time show Bellichick the new era colts aren't rolling over and dying. Let's stick it to McDaniels

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The fivethirtyeight website https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-nfl-predictions/ has a section where you can assign wins and losses for the next couple of weeks.  Which I did.

Even if we beat the Bills and lose to the Bucs, our 50% chance of making the playoffs is eclipsed by the Chiefs' 54%, if they beat the Cowboys next week.  (Even assuming they lose tonight.)  We would be 8th.

Our fate is still not in our hands.  Somebody else has to lose.

Although, if we lose to both the Bills an the Bucs, that 50% drops down to 18%.

Soooo.....

It's High Noon in Buffalo.  Here we are again, with another Must Win game!

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11 minutes ago, John Hammonds said:

The fivethirtyeight website https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-nfl-predictions/ has a section where you can assign wins and losses for the next couple of weeks.  Which I did.

Even if we beat the Bills and lose to the Bucs, our 50% chance of making the playoffs is eclipsed by the Chiefs' 54%, if they beat the Cowboys next week.  (Even assuming they lose tonight.)  We would be 8th.

Our fate is still not in our hands.  Somebody else has to lose.

Although, if we lose to both the Bills an the Bucs, that 50% drops down to 18%.

Soooo.....

It's High Noon in Buffalo.  Here we are again, with another Must Win game!

uh. did you read the OP?

:goodluck:

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11 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Assuming the Chiefs win this, must wins on our schedule would be:

 

Pats

Raiders

At Jags

At Texans

that gives us 9 wins there! + wins over the Pats and Raiders.

 

We need 1 of 2 when we play At Bills or vs Bucs to at least be 6-6 at worse through 12.

 

We play the Raiders at home which is even better.

Our other opponent is At Cards. We can definitely finish 10-7 but may need to finish 11-6 to squeeze in. We play At Jags to finish the season, we may need a win there to get in??

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1 minute ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Our other opponent is At Cards. We can definitely finish 10-7 but may need to finish 11-6 to squeeze in. We play At Jags to finish the season, we may need a win there to get in??

AFC games are far more important than NFC games.

Go 5-0 vs AFC and we're in most likely.

Go 4-1 vs the AFC and 1-1 vs TB/AZ and we're worse off and might be out due to tie breakers.

 

Buffalo is huge. And LVR is probably the biggest game.

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3 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Yup. Really all the AFC games are must wins at this point. Lose any of them, and we're looking for help. 

I am wondering if 10-7 will get us in, we really don't know because of tiebreakers, etc.. WE could lose to the Bills and Cards for example but win the other games and finish 10-7. To me the Raiders and Pats games are the biggest because if the Bills win their division they are in anyway. We have to beat the Texans and Jags again obviously. The way the Bucs are looking, that looks real winnable.

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Just now, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I am wondering if 10-7 will get us in, we really don't know because of tiebreakers, etc.. WE could lose to the Bills and Cards for example but win the other games and finish 10-7. To me the Raiders and Pats games are the biggest because if the Bills win their division they are in anyway. We have to beat the Texans and Jags again obviously. The way the Bucs are looking, that looks real winnable.

If we go 5-0 vs AFC teams, I'm not worried about tie breakers. We'd have head to head over the Pats, Bufs, and LVR, all who will be fighting for a spot. Ravens will be the only team with a H2H tie breaker over us, and a 9-3 conf record will be more than enough likely to tip that scale. 

 

We've back ourselves into a corner. Tall order, but we our priorities are winning every single AFC game. We know we have to go 5-2,  but the NFC games really don't matter. NE is on the rise, but we have them at home. Buf and LVR are on the road and IMO the biggest games. 

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2 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

If we go 5-0 vs AFC teams, I'm not worried about tie breakers. We'd have head to head over the Pats, Bufs, and LVR, all who will be fighting for a spot. Ravens will be the only team with a H2H tie breaker over us, and a 9-3 conf record will be more than enough likely to tip that scale. 

 

We've back ourselves into a corner. Tall order, but we our priorities are winning every single AFC game. We know we have to go 5-2,  but the NFC games really don't matter. NE is on the rise, but we have them at home. Buf and LVR are on the road and IMO the biggest games. 

Raiders I believe is at home.

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5 minutes ago, rockywoj said:

Final 7 games, go 6-1 & the Colts will be in.  

 

Go 5-2 and it will be very questionable, depending on how all the tie breakers shake out.

 

Go 4-3 or worse and they’ll miss the playoffs. 
 

Simple. 

We have to go 5-2 at worse and need wins over the Pats and Raiders, if we finish 10-7 that will be a 50% chance we get in is my guess (50/50). At 11-6 I would say our chances of getting in is probably 90%.

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Just now, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I was thinking it was at Raiders too. Glad it is here.

Can't lose either one of those game (NE or LVR). You can lose to Buf IMO, beat one of AZ/TB, and win the rest of the AFC games, but you're now playing RR with tie breakers. At least we'd hold tie breakers over NE and LVR in that case, but I have a feeling LVR will win the AFCW, so won't matter. NE could win the AFCE too at this point. 

 

Lots of interesting FB to be played.

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1 minute ago, EastStreet said:

Can't lose either one of those game (NE or LVR). You can lose to Buf IMO, beat one of AZ/TB, and win the rest of the AFC games, but you're now playing RR with tie breakers. At least we'd hold tie breakers over NE and LVR in that case, but I have a feeling LVR will win the AFCW, so won't matter. NE could win the AFCE too at this point. 

 

Lots of interesting FB to be played.

See I am thinking the Chiefs will win the West is why I want the Raiders to keep losing.

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