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Playoff Predictor/Simulator (538): Colts #11 in AFC, and 38% of chance of playoffs


EastStreet

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17 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

There was really no reason why we couldn't of brought back Autry though, maybe he tried and Autry wanted to move on?

The offer wasn't even that much different, according to the reports Autry did give the colts a chance to match it but they wouldn't move.  I believe the titans contract was a little more player friendly and he saw it as a snub when the colts wouldn't budge

 

This front office seems to do very little negotiating after their first offer, maybe to a fault sometimes 

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Per the 538 site

  • Colts are 72% likely to make the playoffs
  • A win vs TB 85%
  • A loss to TB 56%
  • A loss to TB and a win vs Houston 67%

There are a ton of matchups this week that will impact things.

  • 5-5 LVR at Dallas
  • 6-4 Bills at Saints
  • 5-4-1 Pitt at 6-4 Cinci
  • 8-3 TN at 7-4 NE
  • 6-4 LAC at 5-5 Denver
  • 6-5 Browns at 7-3 Balt

KC is off

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1 minute ago, EastStreet said:

 

Per the 538 site

  • Colts are 72% likely to make the playoffs
  • A win vs TB 85%
  • A loss to TB 56%
  • A loss to TB and a win vs Houston 67%

There are a ton of matchups this week that will impact things.

  • 5-5 LVR at Dallas
  • 6-4 Bills at Saints
  • 5-4-1 Pitt at 6-4 Cinci
  • 8-3 TN at 7-4 NE
  • 6-4 LAC at 5-5 Denver
  • 6-5 Browns at 7-3 Balt

KC is off

 

So I’m guessing root for Dallas, Saints, Pitt, Denver, Balt. Colts aren’t catching Ten but I refuse to root for either team lol. Cowboys really dropping the ball against these AFC West teams.

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8 minutes ago, JediXMan said:

 

So I’m guessing root for Dallas, Saints, Pitt, Denver, Balt. Colts aren’t catching Ten but I refuse to root for either team lol. Cowboys really dropping the ball against these AFC West teams.

 

I'm starting to think we could beat TB this week, and only drop 1 (AZ).... 

And I didn't see the TN loss to Houston coming lol.. Nothing would surprise me at this point.

But we'd have to win out, and TN lose 3, or TN lose 4 if we dropped one.

 

Just best to cheer for Dallas and NO, TN (since it's unlikely we catch them, but they can help us...), and then pick one team from every AFC division to cheer for them to run away with it (beating the other teams in contention).

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On 11/16/2021 at 2:34 PM, Wentzszn said:

This game should be interesting. Helps colts either way. Too bad they play each other.

 

 


Remember….  
 

Covid can still hit the Colts too.   It did last year, so it might this year.   Plus, there’s yet another wave of it coming.   And we have our bye week soon.   Players will be out and about more.   The risk is real. 

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CBS Sports has it nearly the same now so both sites have meet essentially.....67.2 % and 9.5%

 

They have Pats #5, Chargers #6 and Colts #7 which based on schedules seems very likely except Pats could catch the Bills and claim a top 4 pushing Buff down to a wildcard, today will shuffle things for many clubs.

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4 minutes ago, holeymoley99 said:

CBS Sports has it nearly the same now so both sites have meet essentially.....67.2 % and 9.5%

 

They have Pats #5, Chargers #6 and Colts #7 which based on schedules seems very likely except Pats could catch the Bills and claim a top 4 pushing Buff down to a wildcard, today will shuffle things for many clubs.

 

We're only 1 game out of 3rd from a pure record perspective. And we'd have the tie breaker over Buf, and possible tie breaker over NE.. 

 

The two losses to TN really put us at a disadvantage. Just a split and we're 1/2 game out of 2nd... sucks.

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On 11/23/2021 at 11:18 AM, EastStreet said:

Given the other games, I think it would an absolute. 

I think with a win we most likely move up one more spot to 8. Steelers or Bengals will still stay ahead. We would also need Chargers to lose to the Broncos. So if Chargers lose to Broncos and Colts win then I think we will move up to 7.  What could change this is if Titans go into NE and win. As much as we hate rooting for the Titans might be better for Colts to have Titans beat NE. The good thing is Bills and Patriots still play twice and we play the pats. So probably doesn’t matter much.

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On 11/23/2021 at 10:12 AM, EastStreet said:

 

I'm starting to think we could beat TB this week, and only drop 1 (AZ).... 

And I didn't see the TN loss to Houston coming lol.. Nothing would surprise me at this point.

But we'd have to win out, and TN lose 3, or TN lose 4 if we dropped one.

 

Just best to cheer for Dallas and NO, TN (since it's unlikely we catch them, but they can help us...), and then pick one team from every AFC division to cheer for them to run away with it (beating the other teams in contention).

We need to beat TB today.  We are .500 at home so far.  We must win our final 3 home games.  

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21 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

I think with a win we most likely move up one more spot to 8. Steelers or Bengals will still stay ahead. We would also need Chargers to lose to the Broncos. So if Chargers lose to Broncos and Colts win then I think we will move up to 7.  What could change this is if Titans go into NE and win. As much as we hate rooting for the Titans might be better for Colts to have Titans beat NE. The good thing is Bills and Patriots still play twice and we play the pats. So probably doesn’t matter much.

Meh, just listen to me, I have our chances at 99% lmao . Just kidding but I honestly believe our chances are more like 50%. I base that on our remaining schedule and the other teams schedules battling for a WildCard. We are also playing better than teams like the Steelers and Browns for example. When we play the Raiders we will take care of them more than likely and have the tiebreaker.

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2 hours ago, EastStreet said:

It's far more important to win the AFC games.

But I'll gladly take a win today.

Absolutely but we still have AZ and Jax on the road and NE at home.  All three will be very hard to win and I don’t see us winning them all. Even the Raiders game at home will be difficult but we should win that one. If the colts want a chance at the playoffs they must win at home. One loss and we will probably still control our own destiny, two losses and we will need help.  Million ways for this to play out so it’s all a guess right now.  Best thing they can do is win their home games. 

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6 minutes ago, AwesomeAustin said:

Absolutely but we still have AZ and Jax on the road and NE at home.  All three will be very hard to win and I don’t see us winning them all. Even the Raiders game at home will be difficult but we should win that one. If the colts want a chance at the playoffs they must win at home. One loss and we will probably still control our own destiny, two losses and we will need help.  Million ways for this to play out so it’s all a guess right now.  Best thing they can do is win their home games. 

 

Jax should not be hard if we just have a good game plan, balance, and don't get too cute. 

 

Beating TX and Jags should be a given. Losing to either is just unacceptable.

 

Beating LVR and NE are critical to getting a spot as there are major tie breaker implications.

 

Beating TB and/or AZ is a nice to have, but not a must. Only a must if we drop one of the four above.

 

Don't get me wrong, I'll take the W today and be super happy. But LVR and NE will have me far more anxious. 

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4 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

This game hurt our chances more then anyone thinks. Broncos are up 14-0 over chsrgers which if they win puts them ahead of colts in the WC chase I believe  Raiders are now ahead of Colts. Pats and Bills both two games ahead. It’s not looking good.

Spoiler alert. Unless the Colts run the table , they won't be making the playoffs. And...another spoiler alert...they won't run the table.

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6 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

This game hurt our chances more then anyone thinks. Broncos are up 14-0 over chsrgers which if they win puts them ahead of colts in the WC chase I believe  Raiders are now ahead of Colts. Pats and Bills both two games ahead. It’s not looking good.

 

It would be better for the Broncos to win, I think, but I doubt they will.  They still play the Chiefs twice.

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9 minutes ago, cdgacoltsfan said:

Spoiler alert. Unless the Colts run the table , they won't be making the playoffs. And...another spoiler alert...they won't run the table.

 

On the bright side, we have no elite QBs remaining, so we should be able to play our game - Frank shouldn't be panicked, calling 60 passes.  Hopefully the pass defense can hold up just enough.

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3 minutes ago, #12. said:

 

On the bright side, we have no elite QBs remaining, so we should be able to play our game - Frank shouldn't be panicked, calling 60 passes.  Hopefully the pass defense can hold up just enough.

We still have to play Kyler Murray. And while Carr isn’t elite, he should be able to handle our defense. 

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There is a very good chance the Colts could still be the 7 seed after next week if I’m looking at it correctly. Right now we’re the 11 seed.

Broncos play the Chiefs. 
Browns play Baltimore 

Las Vegas plays Washington (probably the least likely but they beat Tampa 2 weeks ago)

Chargers play Bengals.

 

Even though things are tough right now after the heartbreaker we suffered today, the chance for the playoffs is still very real.

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2 hours ago, Colts.sb41 said:

There is a very good chance the Colts could still be the 7 seed after next week if I’m looking at it correctly. Right now we’re the 11 seed.

Broncos play the Chiefs. 
Browns play Baltimore 

Las Vegas plays Washington (probably the least likely but they beat Tampa 2 weeks ago)

Chargers play Bengals.

 

Even though things are tough right now after the heartbreaker we suffered today, the chance for the playoffs is still very real.

Browns are playing Baltimore tonjight. Browns play Las Vegas next week.

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1 hour ago, Wentzszn said:

Browns are playing Baltimore tonjight. Browns play Las Vegas next week.

Browns are on a bye next week... then they play Baltimore AGAIN

 

6 hours ago, cdgacoltsfan said:

Spoiler alert. Unless the Colts run the table , they won't be making the playoffs. And...another spoiler alert...they won't run the table.

We make the playoffs if we go 4-1. We can lose to one of the the Patriots/Cardinals - we just can't lose to the Raiders IMO. The Patriots likely split with the Bills & win their other two games. Even if we do beat them, they would finish 11-6 in that scenario. 
 

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1 minute ago, Colts1324 said:

Browns are on a bye next week... then they play Baltimore AGAIN

 

We make the playoffs if we go 4-1. We can lose to one of the the Patriots/Cardinals - we just can't lose to the Raiders IMO. The Patriots likely split with the Bills & win their other two games. Even if we do beat them, they would finish 11-6 in that scenario. 
 

Oh ok. I must of looked at that wrong.

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Next two weeks is where we can really make up ground, beat Houston and let the other beat up on themselves

 

Chargers at Bengals

Pats vs Bills

Denver at KC

Pitt vs Balt

LV vs Wash

Clev on bye

 

Then

LV at KC

Clev vs Balt

Pitt at Minn

Buff at Tampa

Indy on bye

 

We need Ravens and Chiefs to take care of business down the stretch. KC 5 games vs wildcard hunt clubs and Ravens 4

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14 hours ago, cdgacoltsfan said:

Spoiler alert. Unless the Colts run the table , they won't be making the playoffs. And...another spoiler alert...they won't run the table.

   I have the Colts at the 6th seed, even if they lose to the Pats and Cardinals. Other contenders would have to lose. 
    If they go 4-1, they have a good chance to make the playoffs.

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14 hours ago, #12. said:

 

On the bright side, we have no elite QBs remaining, so we should be able to play our game - Frank shouldn't be panicked, calling 60 passes.  Hopefully the pass defense can hold up just enough.

You don't think Kyle Murray is elite?  May not be, but he is really good and is A very dangerous threat to our defensive scheme.  That game and the Jaguars would be a game to be very worried about

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There's so many things that can happen in these next two months. There's one scenario where the Bengals are the #1 seed and we're the #4 at 10-7. I'd love to see that happen, but it's going to be very hard to beat either the Patriots or the Cards. There's another situation where we limp into the playoffs at 9-8, but for that to happen several teams have to completely fall off the Earth. Injuries can also play a major role. This feels like 2010 in a way. 

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26 minutes ago, TaylorStillTruckedYou said:

You don't think Kyle Murray is elite?  May not be, but he is really good and is A very dangerous threat to our defensive scheme.  That game and the Jaguars would be a game to be very worried about

Jags cards and Patriots games will be tough. Can't look past Texans or raiders either

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12 minutes ago, Stephen said:

Jags cards and Patriots games will be tough. Can't look past Texans or raiders either

I would agree Patriots as well.  I feel a bit more comfortable against the Texans and the Raiders though.  Raiders as long as we stop the TE, we should be good.  Defense usually are good at stopping the run, so im assuming we shut that down as well.  Either way, this final stretch doesn't make me feel good

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12 minutes ago, TaylorStillTruckedYou said:

I would agree Patriots as well.  I feel a bit more comfortable against the Texans and the Raiders though.  Raiders as long as we stop the TE, we should be good.  Defense usually are good at stopping the run, so im assuming we shut that down as well.  Either way, this final stretch doesn't make me feel good

Yea because if they get a double digit lead will they be able to hold it

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Well as yesterday showed us we need to beat the texans because we aren't going to beat ne. So we will be 7-7 with three games to go. Everyone sees how much we struggle against young, dynamic, athletic qb's, so we probably won't beat the vastly inferior cardinals. That leaves the raiders and jags and if we can beat them both that puts us at 9-8 and probably not in the playoffs. 

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