Playoff Predictor/Simulator (538): Colts #11 in AFC, and 38% of chance of playoffs

[Horse Shoe Heaven]

On 11/29/2021 at 7:49 PM, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I don't think we run the table but because of our schedule I do see 10-7. Here are remaining games:

Texans = win IMO

Vs Pats = that is the big one

at Cards = loss

vs Raiders = win

at Jags = win

Can we beat the Pats at LOS is the key?

I think we beat NE at home!!

[JediXMan]

nvm.

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[2006Coltsbestever]

I know many will say you are what your record is but man it just feels like we are better than 6-6. Wentz has played much better than I thought he could and Taylor is just flat out great.

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7 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I know many will say you are what your record is but man it just feels like we are better than 6-6. Wentz has played much better than I thought he could and Taylor is just flat out great.

Seems this year in particular teams are all alot closer then usual. When 26 out of 32 teams are one game from a playoff spot that really is parity. The only reason we are 6-6 is the slow start where the first 4 games were basically training camp because of what happened in camp. Team wasn’t prepared which wasn’t their fault. We would probably have 2 or 3 less losses if that hadn’t happened.

[2006Coltsbestever]

5 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

Seems this year in particular teams are all alot closer then usual. When 26 out of 32 teams are one game from a playoff spot that really is parity. The only reason we are 6-6 is the slow start where the first 4 games were basically training camp because of what happened in camp. Team wasn’t prepared which wasn’t their fault. We would probably have 2 or 3 less losses if that hadn’t happened.

We are about to find out if we are good or just average in these next 5 games. I am pretty sure we will show as good and go 4-1 to close out the season and squeeze into the playoffs. I want a signature win vs the Pats, that would make up for some of these close losses. We have 1 close game that we won and as funny as it sounds it was vs Jacks  . If Lawrence doesn't fumble on his last play and lets say he completes a 20 yard pass instead, we would've been in huge trouble only up 23-17. Our D closed that game out at least.

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Lawrence Owen in his podcast yesterday mentioned he thinks Taylor is going to have a huge game with the teams we have left to play. So that bodes well for us the rest of the way. Taylor had like 145 yards last time we played Texans. Apparently NE gave up 270 yards to two unknown Titans running backs. Not sure how NE thrashed Titans with that many yards. Raiders run defense shouldn’t scare us and neither should jags run defense. 

[RollerColt]

18 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I know many will say you are what your record is but man it just feels like we are better than 6-6. Wentz has played much better than I thought he could and Taylor is just flat out great.

I agree, which makes it all the more frustrating. 

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2 minutes ago, RollerColt said:

I agree, which makes it all the more frustrating. 

Makes it easier if you look back at camp and what happened. It’s very clear why we are where are. Just enjoy how good this team looks. If we make the playoffs that is great but the offseason will be a lot of fun to see what Ballard does. 

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I don’t think this will happen but if Titans somehow lost to jags next week. Then colts beat NE with Titans having Steelers in PItt  after that it’s very possible the division is still in play with 2 games left. Titans loss to jags and Steelers and colts win against Texans and NE both teams will have the same record with 2 games to go. The way Titans are so beat up it wouldn’t be that shocking.

 

Edit we would have to win the AZ game. But it’s still very possible with how bad Titans are I injured. That AZ game might mean a lot.

[Colts1324]

On 11/29/2021 at 10:46 PM, Moosejawcolt said:

U will never run the table with this defense. The Pats, Cardinals, Raiders. Good luck. Yesterday was it.

i think our defense did well given the circumstances. It's hard to stop a team with momentum when they just got a turnover. 
 

Our defense did extremely well against Brady - except for covering the seam (Gronk). Getting Willis back should help with that. 
 

Our defense is actually pretty clutch despite what all of the media says & that last drive. The strip sack on Lawrence, the two forced fumbles against the Texans last year to WIN the game when we should have lost. 
 

 

I will give you the pass rush. Paye is starting to come along. That's about it. He tends to overshoot around the edge tho.
 

Buckner had a big sack in the Bucs game, but he has not been a $21 million a year difference maker this year if we are being honest. Grover has provided very little pressure all year. Muhammed is a solid rotational piece... he is not a starter. 
 

 

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With the Steelers having that tie colts really need Ravens to beat the Steelers. If Steelers win they go back ahead of us I believe even if we win because of that tie.

[Superman]

On 12/2/2021 at 6:06 AM, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I know many will say you are what your record is but man it just feels like we are better than 6-6. Wentz has played much better than I thought he could and Taylor is just flat out great.

 

Close losses breed hope. You could easily flip two or three games with just a play here or there, so it's understandable. But losing close games is a major shortcoming of this team, especially against good teams. 

 

I don't think the Colts are a sleeping giant or anything like that. I don't think the roster is good enough, and I don't think we make good decisions when games get tight -- on and off the field. So it's hard to get excited about what could happen down the stretch.

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11 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Close losses breed hope. You could easily flip two or three games with just a play here or there, so it's understandable. But losing close games is a major shortcoming of this team, especially against good teams. 

 

I don't think the Colts are a sleeping giant or anything like that. I don't think the roster is good enough, and I don't think we make good decisions when games get tight -- on and off the field. So it's hard to get excited about what could happen down the stretch.

I am not even looking at this year. What happens happens. But I am very excited for the future. We learned a lot about this team this year. Feels so good not to have to worry about QB next season. Ballard can now really go in and try to sure up a couple holes. Sue I would like to make the playoffs but I am really excited for FA and the draft. 

[coming on strong]

2 hours ago, Wentzszn said:

I am not even looking at this year. What happens happens. But I am very excited for the future. We learned a lot about this team this year. Feels so good not to have to worry about QB next season. Ballard can now really go in and try to sure up a couple holes. Sue I would like to make the playoffs but I am really excited for FA and the draft. 

ballard has to spend  some of that 70 million next year to be a contender .    we need a new left tackle as fisher is to up and down . two new wrs  one in the slot and one outside .  A new outside corner  and a veteran pass rusher to assist in the growth of paye and dayo  .

[Stephen]

12 minutes ago, coming on strong said:

ballard has to spend  some of that 70 million next year to be a contender .    we need a new left tackle as fisher is to up and down . two new wrs  one in the slot and one outside .  A new outside corner  and a veteran pass rusher to assist in the growth of paye and dayo  .

Might be stuck with Fisher unless you want davenport at Lt

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14 minutes ago, coming on strong said:

ballard has to spend  some of that 70 million next year to be a contender .    we need a new left tackle as fisher is to up and down . two new wrs  one in the slot and one outside .  A new outside corner  and a veteran pass rusher to assist in the growth of paye and dayo  .

We don’t need a new LT. We may draft one to develop though. Fisher will be another year removed from that injury. It would not be smart to mess with a take a chance on someone else there next year.

 

We need to draft a WR with the 2nd or third pick. Go sign a good FA WR. Then go get a CB and a vet pass rusher and I will be happy.

[Stephen]

On 12/2/2021 at 9:22 AM, Wentzszn said:

Lawrence Owen in his podcast yesterday mentioned he thinks Taylor is going to have a huge game with the teams we have left to play. So that bodes well for us the rest of the way. Taylor had like 145 yards last time we played Texans. Apparently NE gave up 270 yards to two unknown Titans running backs. Not sure how NE thrashed Titans with that many yards. Raiders run defense shouldn’t scare us and neither should jags run defense. 

Cardinals can be run on as well they are giving up 4.7 yards a carry

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Just now, Stephen said:

Cardinals can be run on as well they are giving up 4.7 yards a carry

Yeah he did mention that. He said he thinks we match up well with all 5 teams left.

[coming on strong]

21 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

We don’t need a new LT. We may draft one to develop though. Fisher will be another year removed from that injury. It would not be smart to mess with a take a chance on someone else there next year.

 

We need to draft a WR with the 2nd or third pick. Go sign a good FA WR. Then go get a CB and a vet pass rusher and I will be happy.

we need a long term answer at LT and i dont see how we get it until the 2023 draft  unless we sign one .   this team is prime to compete for a ring with a couple pieces . i rather not draft a Wr in the second to start right away at outside wr  that would set us back another year for him to be good enough .    we have 70 million every body important is signed already except nelson who is making 15 million next year even signing him for 20 million would leave us with a lot of money .   we need to retool like the patriots did and we would be the best team in the nfl .  we are already competing with elite teams with a couple big signings we would be elite .

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7 minutes ago, coming on strong said:

we need a long term answer at LT and i dont see how we get it until the 2023 draft  unless we sign one .   this team is prime to compete for a ring with a couple pieces . i rather not draft a Wr in the second to start right away at outside wr  that would set us back another year for him to be good enough .    we have 70 million every body important is signed already except nelson who is making 15 million next year even signing him for 20 million would leave us with a lot of money .   we need to retool like the patriots did and we would be the best team in the nfl .  we are already competing with elite teams with a couple big signings we would be elite .

WR has been a position lately that can contribute right away. That’s why I said we also need to go sign one in FA. We need to do both. Both not one in a late round.

 

Outside developing a Lt I am not taking a chance on changing that. We don’t need to retool anything just add a couple pieces.

[Stephen]

12 minutes ago, coming on strong said:

we need a long term answer at LT and i dont see how we get it until the 2023 draft  unless we sign one .   this team is prime to compete for a ring with a couple pieces . i rather not draft a Wr in the second to start right away at outside wr  that would set us back another year for him to be good enough .    we have 70 million every body important is signed already except nelson who is making 15 million next year even signing him for 20 million would leave us with a lot of money .   we need to retool like the patriots did and we would be the best team in the nfl .  we are already competing with elite teams with a couple big signings we would be elite .

Depends on the wr that is there. A Allen, Brown, Metcalf, mclaurin, or Hilton like wr can contribute right away. One thing for sure if we do take wr we don't need a project with limited route tree and a drop problem.

[EastStreet]

1 hour ago, Wentzszn said:

We don’t need a new LT. We may draft one to develop though. Fisher will be another year removed from that injury. It would not be smart to mess with a take a chance on someone else there next year.

 

We need to draft a WR with the 2nd or third pick. Go sign a good FA WR. Then go get a CB and a vet pass rusher and I will be happy.

 

Fisher is up and down, and has performed very mediocre to bad vs good DLs. I'm not sure he'll return to form.

 

You don't have too take a big chance on a replacement if needed. We chose wrong this year and should have taken Leno. Leno will be available again in the off season, as will other FAs. Leno was cheaper than Fisher this year. Probably will cost more next though.

 

Doubt they both 1) use our first pick, and 2) spend much in FA, on two new WRs. It's likely one of the other. WR certainly is a need, but we have several others at key positions. And we have limited draft capital this coming year, and we have a lot of FAs to either extend, or replace. 

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[EastStreet]

23 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

 

 

If I recall correctly, we had just come off a pass happy loss vs Jax...

 

[Solid84]

I don’t think it’s impossible for us to go 5-0 over the last games of the season. I don’t think it’s impossible for us to go 2-3 either, maybe even 1-4. 
 

We have to beat the Texans. Anything less would be a catastrophe. 

The Pats game could be our biggest loss of the season. Belichick has had our number for 2 decades now. A win here would probably be my biggest wish for the season. 

The Cardinals are having a good season with or without Murray. I’m not really sure what to expect here. I think our offense has a good match up here, not so sure about our defense. 
 

I was ready to write off the Raiders after Gruden, but then they go an beat the Cowboys. 
 

Frank hasn’t won at Jacksonville and if their offense wasn’t poo last time we met we would’ve lost. They shut us out for 3 quarters. 
 

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Steelers are team I am really watching because that tie muddies things. They have ravens twice but one is the last game. Who says ravens won’t sit players if the number one seed is wrapped up. If you haven’t seen the ravens injury report this weekend you should. It’s a mess.  Steelers do have chiefs and Vikings on the road. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

9 minutes ago, Solid84 said:

I don’t think it’s impossible for us to go 5-0 over the last games of the season. I don’t think it’s impossible for us to go 2-3 either, maybe even 1-4. 
 

We have to beat the Texans. Anything less would be a catastrophe. 

The Pats game could be our biggest loss of the season. Belichick has had our number for 2 decades now. A win here would probably be my biggest wish for the season. 

The Cardinals are having a good season with or without Murray. I’m not really sure what to expect here. I think our offense has a good match up here, not so sure about our defense. 
 

I was ready to write off the Raiders after Gruden, but then they go an beat the Cowboys. 
 

Frank hasn’t won at Jacksonville and if their offense wasn’t poo last time we met we would’ve lost. They shut us out for 3 quarters. 
 

Actually we had Belichick's number from 2005-2009 going 5-1 vs the Patriots including an AFC Title Game win but many seem to forget that. Anyway this years game regarding playoff chances is huge I agree.

 

We will beat Houston and it won't even be close. It is my lock of the week. Last week my lock was the Pats over the Titans.

[2006Coltsbestever]

50 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

Steelers are team I am really watching because that tie muddies things. They have ravens twice but one is the last game. Who says ravens won’t sit players if the number one seed is wrapped up. If you haven’t seen the ravens injury report this weekend you should. It’s a mess.  Steelers do have chiefs and Vikings on the road. 

If the Ravens beat them tomorrow they will be 5-6-1, if we win we will be 7-6. I think both will happen. The Steelers look done to me. I am ok with Cincy being ahead of us, that is only 1 team of the possible WildCards. 

 

Teams we need to lose tomorrow are the Broncos, Chargers, and Steelers and if we win things will be looking rosy going into the Bye week. Broncos would be 6-6, Chargers 6-6, Steelers 5-6-1, Browns have a Bye and are at 6-6, and Colts 7-6. We would be ahead of those 4 teams. A Raiders loss would be nice too but we still play them so if they win tomorrow no biggy. Broncos play at Chiefs, Chargers at Cincy, and Ravens at Steelers - looks good for us. Whoever loses the East will get in as a Wildcard IMO = Bills or Pats. That leaves 1 spot and that should be us if things play out over the next month like they should. We need to beat the Raiders, if we don't it screws everything up. In my scenario it will end up being Cincy, Bills, Colts as the WildCards. Chiefs, Pats, Titans, Ravens - Division Champs. 

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15 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

If the Ravens beat them tomorrow they will be 5-6-1, if we win we will be 7-6. I think both will happen. The Steelers look done to me. I am ok with Cincy being ahead of us, that is only 1 team of the possible WildCards. 

 

Teams we need to lose tomorrow are the Broncos, Chargers, and Steelers and if we win things will be looking rosy going into the Bye week. Broncos would be 6-6, Chargers 6-6, Steelers 5-6-1, Browns have a Bye and are at 6-6, and Colts 7-6. We would be ahead of those 4 teams. A Raiders loss would be nice too but we still play them so if they win tomorrow no biggy. Broncos play at Chiefs, Chargers at Cincy, and Ravens at Steelers - looks good for us. Whoever loses the East will get in as a Wildcard IMO = Bills or Pats. That leaves 1 spot and that should be us if things play out over the next month like they should. We need to beat the Raiders, if we don't it screws everything up. In my scenario it will end up being Cincy, Bills, Colts as the WildCards. Chiefs, Pats, Titans, Ravens - Division Champs. 

I don’t know. It’s in Pittsburg and the ravens injury is bad. That team had been flirting with disaster all year. I agree next week while we are on our bye is when we will probably make our move.

[2006Coltsbestever]

2 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

I don’t know. It’s in Pittsburg and the ravens injury is bad. That team had been flirting with disaster all year. I agree next week while we are on our bye is when we will probably make our move.

Besides tomorrow's game vs the Ravens, they still have to play at Vikings, at Chiefs, and at Ravens. I doubt the Ravens will be able to rest anyone on the last Sunday because Cincy will probably be on their rear.

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3 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Besides tomorrow's game vs the Ravens, they still have to play at Vikings, at Chiefs, and at Ravens. I doubt the Ravens will be able to rest anyone on the last Sunday because Cincy will probably be on their rear.

That’s probably why colts need Bengals to keep winning.  

[2006Coltsbestever]

Just now, Wentzszn said:

That’s probably why colts need Bengals to keep winning.  

Yeah what I am hoping is Cincy clears a path for us by beating the Chargers tomorrow and they are within a game of the Ravens toward the end. Ravens would definitely want a home game, only way to get it is win your division. Teams like the Broncos, Raiders, and Browns will not finish higher than 9-8. If we beat the Raiders than that takes care of them. Browns have a treacherous schedule, they may even go 8-9. Broncos play at Chiefs tomorrow  .

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14 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Yeah what I am hoping is Cincy clears a path for us by beating the Chargers tomorrow and they are within a game of the Ravens toward the end. Ravens would definitely want a home game, only way to get it is win your division. Teams like the Broncos, Raiders, and Browns will not finish higher than 9-8. If we beat the Raiders than that takes care of them. Browns have a treacherous schedule, they may even go 8-9. Broncos play at Chiefs tomorrow  .

I feel good Chargers and Broncos will lose tomorrow. Raiders will probably win. Although WFT has been a pretty tough out for teams and are not horrible. But with it being in LV Raiders probably win. I think Waller though is out.

[2006Coltsbestever]

7 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

I feel good Chargers and Broncos will lose tomorrow. Raiders will probably win. Although WFT has been a pretty tough out for teams and are not horrible. But with it being in LV Raiders probably win. I think Walker though is out.

I am picking Washington to win actually. I think it is 50/50. Raiders are a weird team, when they win a game they shouldn't like beating the Cowboys, they tend to lay an egg the next week. Washington has won 3 in a row, should be an interesting game.

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1 minute ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I am picking Washington to win actually. I think it is 50/50. Raiders are a weird team, when they win a game they shouldn't like beating the Cowboys, they tend to lay an egg the next week. Washington has won 3 in a row, should be an interesting game.

Raiders just caught  cowboys in a weird spot with covid and injuries. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

3 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

Raiders just caught  cowboys in a weird spot with covid and injuries. 

This could be the best Sunday of the year. If the Chargers, Broncos, Steelers, and Raiders lose and we win, we would be #7 (in the playoffs) going into the Bye week. If that happens I will be doing this 

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Just now, 2006Coltsbestever said:

This could be the best Sunday of the year. If the Chargers, Broncos, Steelers, and Raiders lose and we win, we would be #7 (in the playoffs) going into the Bye week. If that happens I will be doing this 

It would take a miracle for all that to happen. But man we would be sitting really pretty on our bye week with those teams playing while we dont. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

Just now, Wentzszn said:

It would take a miracle for all that to happen. But man we would be sitting really pretty on our bye week with those teams playing while we dont. 

I think all of them could happen, if the Raiders do win at least we still play them. I will be highly disappointed if something happens like the Broncos beating the Chiefs. That will suck!

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1 minute ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I think all of them could happen, if the Raiders do win at least we still play them. I will be highly disappointed if something happens like the Broncos beating the Chiefs. That will suck!

Colts can’t have the Broncos win. That would be bad. Glad it’s in KC. Chargers need to lose too Those are probably the two most important teams we need to lose. I am rooting for Pats Monday night because Bills have Tampa the following week while we are on our bye week. That would put colts ahead of Bills if Bills lose these next two.