Turay the next great pass rusher?

[CR91]

Turay was a terror before his injury and the stats back it up

 

 

[EastStreet]

When Turay can play more than 50% of snaps (not due to injury), I'll start to buy into the hype. As a situational pass rusher, he's great. An every down DE he is not, yet.

[MPStack]

33 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

When Turay can play more than 50% of snaps (not due to injury), I'll start to buy into the hype. As a situational pass rusher, he's great. An every down DE he is not, yet.

If, he doesn’t stay on the field in 2020 and post at least 10+ sacks, he’s another 2nd Rd disappointment IMO. 

[WarGhost21]

37 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

When Turay can play more than 50% of snaps (not due to injury), I'll start to buy into the hype. As a situational pass rusher, he's great. An every down DE he is not, yet.

That's what's weird for me about Turay. Look at any scouting report about him coming out of college, and sure, it says he has all the tools to be a good pass rusher but he was still raw. Where they all say he was solid is in run defense, and that he makes good sound tackles. That has flipped entirely in the league, and I wonder if injuries were the reason why. If so, and he comes back fully healthy, I have no doubt that he could easily become an every down player this season, as he has a ton of untapped potential still.

[EastStreet]

4 minutes ago, Dokken said:

If, he doesn’t stay on the field in 2020 and post at least 10+ sacks, he’s another 2nd Rd disappointment IMO. 

Honestly I'd be OK if he's just awesome vs the pass. I'd prefer him be well rounded, but if he's just a 3rd down terror, there's still a lot of value in that. And I'm more than fine with situational contributors if they are good, and he's been really good. So, not really a disappointment.

1 minute ago, WarGhost21 said:

That's what's weird for me about Turay. Look at any scouting report about him coming out of college, and sure, it says he has all the tools to be a good pass rusher but he was still raw. Where they all say he was solid is in run defense, and that he makes good sound tackles. That has flipped entirely in the league, and I wonder if injuries were the reason why. If so, and he comes back fully healthy, I have no doubt that he could easily become an every down player this season, as he has a ton of untapped potential still.

Yup, I mentioned this exact topic in the thread about drafting a DE. IMO, he was too thin/wiry coming into the league and not ready to hold up vs the run. He's thickened up a bit the last couple years, so I think he's better suited now. That's why I still have hope he can be a 3 down guy. But I am happily surprised how good he's become vs the pass. Hats off to whomever is teaching him technique. Hope Banogu is getting the same mentoring.

[WarGhost21]

44 minutes ago, Dokken said:

If, he doesn’t stay on the field in 2020 and post at least 10+ sacks, he’s another 2nd Rd disappointment IMO. 

The first part, I agree. I want him to stay healthy and on the field.

 

However, saying that if he doesn't get 10 or more sacks then he is a "bust" is too much. In the past 5 seasons, there have only been an average of 17.6 players per year that go over the 10 sack mark. Taking into account only edge rushers, that number drops to about 13.5 per year. In that regard, there are less than half as many edge rushers that top 10 sacks than there are teams in the league. While it would be nice of Turay to get there, and it is definitely possible for him to do so, saying that he must do so or risk being labeled a bust is a bit much. As long as he gets after the QB consistently, I'm happy.

[MPStack]

3 minutes ago, WarGhost21 said:

The first part, I agree. I want him to stay healthy and on the field.

 

However, saying that if he doesn't get 10 or more sacks then he is a "bust" is too much. In the past 5 seasons, there have only been an average of 17.6 players per year that go over the 10 sack mark. Taking into account only edge rushers, that number drops to about 13.5 per year. In that regard, there are less than half as many edge rushers that top 10 sacks than there are teams in the league. While it would be nice of Turay to get there, and it is definitely possible for him to do so, saying that he must do so or risk being labeled a bust is a bit much. As long as he gets after the QB consistently, I'm happy.

Not arguing with you, but I want more from a going on year three, 2nd Rd pick. 
 

I think Turay was a reach, for a player who is probably not a 3 down player, much like Lewis and Banogu. JMO

[indyagent17]

1 hour ago, Dokken said:

If, he doesn’t stay on the field in 2020 and post at least 10+ sacks, he’s another 2nd Rd disappointment IMO. 

That's a pretty high bar. So he has to have at least 10 sacks to impress you

[MPStack]

16 minutes ago, indyagent17 said:

That's a pretty high bar. So he has to have at least 10 sacks to impress you

What is your bar for a high draft pick going on year three? (DE) 

 

Are you satisfied with a Turay just being depth player? 

[NannyMcafee]

I dont get what people dont understand about drafting a lockerroom that Ballard has explained in detail numerous times. 

 

Turay a reach? That's just laughable. 

[DougDew]

Stats.  Sigh. 

 

He beat up on two bad LTs.  The LAC LT is so bad that some mocks have them taking a LT over a new QB at pick 6, LOL.  I knew he had to be a bad LT after the first game because even Turay had a great day.

 

I don't remember the other bad LT Turay feasted on.  The other LTs he played, good ones, he was a non factor.

 

He needs sacks against playoff caliber LTs, not just good stats.

[aaron11]

9 hours ago, WarGhost21 said:

That's what's weird for me about Turay. Look at any scouting report about him coming out of college, and sure, it says he has all the tools to be a good pass rusher but he was still raw. Where they all say he was solid is in run defense, and that he makes good sound tackles. That has flipped entirely in the league, and I wonder if injuries were the reason why. If so, and he comes back fully healthy, I have no doubt that he could easily become an every down player this season, as he has a ton of untapped potential still.

hes tall and lanky, may not be built for the nfl running game 

[throwing BBZ]

9 hours ago, EastStreet said:

Honestly I'd be OK if he's just awesome vs the pass. I'd prefer him be well rounded, but if he's just a 3rd down terror, there's still a lot of value in that. And I'm more than fine with situational contributors if they are good, and he's been really good. So, not really a disappointment.

Yup, I mentioned this exact topic in the thread about drafting a DE. IMO, he was too thin/wiry coming into the league and not ready to hold up vs the run. He's thickened up a bit the last couple years, so I think he's better suited now. That's why I still have hope he can be a 3 down guy. But I am happily surprised how good he's become vs the pass. Hats off to whomever is teaching him technique. Hope Banogu is getting the same mentoring.

 

 He was listed as 4-5 lbs lighter last season. Playing in the 240's. He needed to add 5 lbs not lose 5.

[throwing BBZ]

9 hours ago, WarGhost21 said:

The first part, I agree. I want him to stay healthy and on the field.

 

However, saying that if he doesn't get 10 or more sacks then he is a "bust" is too much. In the past 5 seasons, there have only been an average of 17.6 players per year that go over the 10 sack mark. Taking into account only edge rushers, that number drops to about 13.5 per year. In that regard, there are less than half as many edge rushers that top 10 sacks than there are teams in the league. While it would be nice of Turay to get there, and it is definitely possible for him to do so, saying that he must do so or risk being labeled a bust is a bit much. As long as he gets after the QB consistently, I'm happy.

 

 So a dissapointment = Bust   Get a grip.  
 It is more about % of sacks, hits, and hurries per rush attempt anyway.
 Unfortunately Turay is at least 15lbs light to be a good all around defender.
So we need 2 interior studs to make life easier for our DE's and LB's.

[DougDew]

IMO, a late 2nd round pick isn't expected to be a high level 3 down DE player.  It happens, but those aberrations don't set the gauge by which to measure.  A solid 3 down player at an impactful position such as DE has to be a top 45 talent, IMO.  Turay wasn't, he isn't, so we shouldn't expect him to be.

 

Other positions that are less impactful, say LG, can get solid 3 down play from below 45 BPA draft talent, IMO.

 

If Turay becomes a solid rotational pass rusher, then he has lived up to his draft position, IMO,

[BProland85]

Hoping he can stay healthy and  hold up as a full time DE. If he can do both of those things, I have no doubt he can be an elite pass rusher in this league. 

[WarGhost21]

1 hour ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

 So a dissapointment = Bust   Get a grip.  
 It is more about % of sacks, hits, and hurries per rush attempt anyway.
 Unfortunately Turay is at least 15lbs light to be a good all around defender.
So we need 2 interior studs to make life easier for our DE's and LB's.

I absolutely agree with you. I don't think Turay is a bust or even a disappointment. He's done well in limited action and should he stay on the field I think he'll be great!

 

2 hours ago, aaron11 said:

hes tall and lanky, may not be built for the nfl running game 

I guess he wasn't set to be a great run stopper, but from all the reports i've seen, he was said to be a sound tackler with range to run down rushers trying to get outside. I think he still has potential in that area, and that getting better inside talent on the line will really help him not having to stay inside so often and be able to do what he does best against the run and stop the outside game.

[Fisticuffs111]

Health is the biggest thing. He’s dealt with so many things since college. I just hope he can stay healthy and continue to be a pass rush threat.

[CR91]

3 hours ago, DougDew said:

Stats.  Sigh. 

 

He beat up on two bad LTs.  The LAC LT is so bad that some mocks have them taking a LT over a new QB at pick 6, LOL.  I knew he had to be a bad LT after the first game because even Turay had a great day.

 

I don't remember the other bad LT Turay feasted on.  The other LTs he played, good ones, he was a non factor.

 

He needs sacks against playoff caliber LTs, not just good stats.

 

So your excuses when he was applying pressure on Mahomes vs Andrew Schwaltz is what exactly?

[DougDew]

4 minutes ago, CR91 said:

 

So your excuses when he was applying pressure on Mahomes vs Andrew Schwaltz is what exactly?

Not excuses, just observations. 

 

With the way Mahomes looks to escape the pocket and throw on the move, its pretty tough to gauge the competence of any one player on KCs oline, IMO.

 

IIRC, the dline had more impact on the game as a whole than usual because they all knew Mahomes couldn't move.  I didn't see Turay stand out as an exceptional threat compared to who else was playing, so I don't know how to evaluate his performance individually. 

[CR91]

30 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Not excuses, just observations. 

 

With the way Mahomes looks to escape the pocket and throw on the move, its pretty tough to gauge the competence of any one player on KCs oline, IMO.

 

IIRC, the dline had more impact on the game as a whole than usual because they all knew Mahomes couldn't move.  I didn't see Turay stand out as an exceptional threat compared to who else was playing, so I don't know how to evaluate his performance individually. 

 

Well I did watch Turay and along with Houston, they applied a lot of pressure on Mahomes to get him off his spot.

[DougDew]

2 minutes ago, CR91 said:

 

Well I did watch Turay and along with Houston, they applied a lot of pressure on Mahomes to get him off his spot.

Yeah.  No one play makes a trend, but I thought the play that Turay got hurt on, its because another KC player rolled on him, because that KC player was blocking another Colt that was getting pressure too.  Maybe we could credit Turay for causing the disruption, but I think the entire dline had a great game against KC.

 

I was contrasting that game to LAC, where Turay really stood out as being the only player who got consistent pressure all day.  It was really when some fans started questioning Hunt and Autry and the lack of drafting dline since Turay was the only guy making a difference.  It turns out that the LAC OT was not very good.

[CR91]

7 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Yeah.  No one play makes a trend, but I thought the play that Turay got hurt on, its because another KC player rolled on him, because that KC player was blocking another Colt that was getting pressure too.  Maybe we could credit Turay for causing the disruption, but I think the entire dline had a great game against KC.

 

I was contrasting that game to LAC, where Turay really stood out as being the only player who got consistent pressure all day.  It was really when some fans started questioning Hunt and Autry and the lack of drafting dline since Turay was the only guy making a difference.  It turns out that the LAC OT was not very good.

 

That was not the only play he made. Getting sacks is not the only category, it's just the most glamorous. Hurries, pressure per rush, hits, those are real stats.

[#12.]

It's a PFF grade based on 3 and 1/2 games of limited, situational snaps.  Hopefully he turns into something, but in the grand scheme of things, it doesn't mean much.  

[CR91]

3 minutes ago, #12. said:

It's a PFF grade based on 3 and 1/2 games of limited, situational snaps.  Hopefully he turns into something, but in the grand scheme of things, it doesn't mean much.  

 

So he needs to be on the field on run downs for his snaps not to be limited. Got it thanks. 

[ColtJ82]

11 hours ago, Dokken said:

What is your bar for a high draft pick going on year three? (DE) 

 

Are you satisfied with a Turay just being depth player? 

Depth player? You'd be disappointed with less than 10 sacks? You realize that none of Von Miller, Frank Clark, Vic Beasley, Khalil Mack, Bruce Irvin, JPP, Nick Bosa, or Harold Landry had 10 sacks last year?

[#12.]

15 minutes ago, CR91 said:

 

So he needs to be on the field on run downs for his snaps not to be limited. Got it thanks. 

 

It's also a small sample size... and it's PFF.  It's not something from above. 

 

PFF also called Wilson a breakout player for 2019, ranked Trubisky as the best QB in the draft(20 spots higher than Mahomes) and essentially called Tillery a can't miss prospect.  I think they might have even had Tillery top 10.

[MPStack]

6 minutes ago, ColtJ82 said:

Depth player? You'd be disappointed with less than 10 sacks? You realize that none of Von Miller, Frank Clark, Vic Beasley, Khalil Mack, Bruce Irvin, JPP, Nick Bosa, or Harold Landry had 10 sacks last year?

Yep, cuz Ballard has 3 2nd picks invested on the D-line, and the pass rush still is bottom league.  
 

Turay’s scout report mirrors his NFL career thus far IMO. 

The Patriots, Ravens and Seahawks tend to find these types in middle rounds “depth players” not high selections.

 

Maybe, Turay and others pan out, but the pass rush is still an issue.  
 

If, your okay with drafting a player high, like Turay to consistently miss games and produce a couple sacks a year who plays maybe 50% of the snaps, then so be it. I guess I’m just different and value a 2nd Rd guy more than others.
 

 

 

[CR91]

22 minutes ago, #12. said:

 

It's also a small sample size... and it's PFF.  It's not something from above. 

 

PFF also called Wilson a breakout player for 2019, ranked Trubisky as the best QB in the draft(20 spots higher than Mahomes) and essentially called Tillery a can't miss prospect.  I think they might have even had Tillery top 10.

 

Those are predictions not stats 

[ColtJ82]

58 minutes ago, Dokken said:

Yep, cuz Ballard has 3 2nd picks invested on the D-line, and the pass rush still is bottom league.  
 

Turay’s scout report mirrors his NFL career thus far IMO. 

The Patriots, Ravens and Seahawks tend to find these types in middle rounds “depth players” not high selections.

 

Maybe, Turay and others pan out, but the pass rush is still an issue.  
 

If, your okay with drafting a player high, like Turay to consistently miss games and produce a couple sacks a year who plays maybe 50% of the snaps, then so be it. I guess I’m just different and value a 2nd Rd guy more than others.
 

 

 

In all fairness, he only got to play 4 games last year and he played relatively well. Can't help that he was injured. He is showing an ability to live up to his 52nd draft position. 

 

I still think 10 sacks may be a little aggressive since he isn't a 3 down player. I'd personally say 6-8 with a high pressure rate would be a successful season.

 

"He was beginning to really flash as a situational pass rusher this season — such as on this play, where he throws Cam Erving into Patrick Mahomes — before an early injury derailed his sophomore campaign. Across the first five weeks of the season, Turay's 91.0 pass-rushing grade ranked second among all qualifying edge defenders, and his 22.9% pressure rate ranked second to only Nick Bosa"

 

"A neck injury in Week 2 limited Turay to just four games in the first five weeks of the season, but he was able to total five tackles, 1.5 sacks, one forced fumble, five quarterback hits and eight hurries in that time.

For his amount of playing time in 2019 (81 snaps), he was tied with T.J. Watt of the Pittsburgh Steelers for the best PFF grade among any edge defender in the NFL (91.3), and his pass-rush grade of 91.0 trailed only Watt and the Cleveland Browns' Myles Garrett. Turay stood alone atop the Pass Rushing Productivity category, his 13.1 ranking handily above the next-best player's 10.6.

Turay was also no slouch when it came to the run game either, as his 72.1 in run defense was 36th and his tackling grade of 74.8 was 14th."

 

-https://www.colts.com/news/kemoko-turay-pro-football-focus-top-breakout-player-2020

[MPStack]

@ColtJ82

 

I liked your last post and agree he doesn’t need to produce 10 sacks necessarily. 
 

However, he needs to stay on the field, which he has had issues with in college. 
 

If, year three is no better than the first two-seasons,  I suspect Turay will be considered a disappointment. Hopefully, he breaks out in 2020. 
 

 

[Valpo2004]

He was certainly a force, one of our most under-rated injuries.

 

Hope he can return from injury and play like he was last year. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

If his injury doesn’t slow his game I am convinced he will be great. He is such a hard worker. 

[EastStreet]

7 hours ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

 He was listed as 4-5 lbs lighter last season. Playing in the 240's. He needed to add 5 lbs not lose 5.

I never said I wanted him to lose weight. If you look at combine pics, and compare them to now, he's "thicker", and IMO, that's what is most important. Given his body type, I don't see him putting on bad weight. It'll all likely to be good muscle development.

[CanuckColt]

You must be durable to play this game called Football...Turay is not durable.

 

[hoosierhawk]

Some may vehemently will disagree but Freeney was not the greatest DE as a run stopper, especially early on. Great, great pass rusher but have vivid memories of his rushing wide and the OT just ride him wide and the running back running through a huge hole that Freeney  vacated. He became a HOF. Big difference so far is he could stay on the field.

[AwesomeAustin]

Maybe it’s part of the rebuild but the common theme is constantly just wait until next year, if he stays on the field he will be awesome. I want to see more health. Our QBs, DL, WRs and Secondary are all having issues the past few years. Can’t field a competitive team or even talk developing players if everyone is hurt. 

[CurBeatElite]

On 2/20/2020 at 9:27 PM, EastStreet said:

Honestly I'd be OK if he's just awesome vs the pass. I'd prefer him be well rounded, but if he's just a 3rd down terror, there's still a lot of value in that. And I'm more than fine with situational contributors if they are good, and he's been really good. So, not really a disappointment.

Yup, I mentioned this exact topic in the thread about drafting a DE. IMO, he was too thin/wiry coming into the league and not ready to hold up vs the run. He's thickened up a bit the last couple years, so I think he's better suited now. That's why I still have hope he can be a 3 down guy. But I am happily surprised how good he's become vs the pass. Hats off to whomever is teaching him technique. Hope Banogu is getting the same mentoring.

 

I think Mathis has been Turay's main mentor.  I'm sure Houston helps him some, too.  Regardless, we knew he was a project pick with raw talent that needed to develop.  He certainly seemed to develop a lot between year 1 and 2.  Unfortunately, he got that injury, but it looks like he's ahead of schedule recovering.  If he's back and healthy, I expect continued improvement (I also think Banogu is going to make a similar leap as Turay seemed to between year 1 and 2).  

 

What we really need is a stud in the interior DL, IMO.  That should just make the edge guys' life much easier.

 

16 hours ago, hoosierhawk said:

Some may vehemently will disagree but Freeney was not the greatest DE as a run stopper, especially early on. Great, great pass rusher but have vivid memories of his rushing wide and the OT just ride him wide and the running back running through a huge hole that Freeney  vacated. He became a HOF. Big difference so far is he could stay on the field.

 

Freeney was awful against the run, pretty much his whole career.  Lucky, for him, we had one of, if not the most explosive offenses in football for most of his time here.  I think he'll wind up in the HOF, but doubt as a first ballot guy.  He's 18th in all-time sacks (1 spot ahead of Mathis and 2 spots above Simeon Rice, who has been eligible for 8 years and still isn't in).  IMO, the big difference is that our O was so explosive that opposing teams were very often forced to pass against us and abandon their run game early with Peyton and Co. putting up so many points.  I think that really masked a lot of deficiencies in the games of Mathis and Freeney who both were vulnerable against the run, but were enabled to be 1-dimensional pass rush specialists due to Peyton's offense being so potent.  I could be wrong, but I highly doubt Freeney would have been as successful on a worse team (e.g., if he played on the Browns or a team w/ a bad offense, I think his run defense would have been exposed way worse than it was).

[Defjamz26]

On 2/21/2020 at 10:52 AM, Fisticuffs111 said:

Health is the biggest thing. He’s dealt with so many things since college. I just hope he can stay healthy and continue to be a pass rush threat.

And we know how ankle injuries can be chronic. Could be one of those things that always flair up and he needs to “rest” for a few weeks. I hope not. Training camp will be the first thing to watch. See how many times he’s limited or doing individual work off to the side.

[EastStreet]

19 hours ago, CurBeatElite said:

 

I think Mathis has been Turay's main mentor.  I'm sure Houston helps him some, too.  Regardless, we knew he was a project pick with raw talent that needed to develop.  He certainly seemed to develop a lot between year 1 and 2.  Unfortunately, he got that injury, but it looks like he's ahead of schedule recovering.  If he's back and healthy, I expect continued improvement (I also think Banogu is going to make a similar leap as Turay seemed to between year 1 and 2).  

 

What we really need is a stud in the interior DL, IMO.  That should just make the edge guys' life much easier.

Yup. It was Mathis. After I posted that, I did a little googling. I really hope he is spenidng time with Banogu too. Honestly I thought Turay was a better prospect than Banogu. I think Banogu was more raw, came from a team known for a scheme that lacks technique, and a conference known for it's lack of D. 

 

I'm optimistic about Turay's chances of being a 3 down guy, but a lot leess optimistic about Banogu being an impact guy. Regardless, he should be better in 2020. I think perhaps the FO got to cute with it's evaluation of Banogu given all the SAM talk. Hope he flips the switch in 2020 though. 

 

I agree 100% on an iDL. IMO, a legit 3 tech would absolutely transform our D from frontend to backend.