What we got wrong, what now, and do you like it

[Scott Pennock]

1 hour ago, Irish YJ said:

well, almost all "experts" said DT is our biggest need. it was also the most voted in a few of the board poles.

 

it's not just my opinion.

If I said we never went to the moon there would be people that agree as well, doesn't make it correct.....lol

 

We'll just have to agree to disagree and see what the Front Office does.

[EastStreet]

16 minutes ago, shastamasta said:

 

Colts run a Cover 2...and a lot of big nickel. Geathers/Kindred can play that third S at the line...but they need another guy that can cover. 

 

With Adderley, you have two Ss who can cover their zones. He also has ball skills and can man up on TEs in the base defense (or Cover 1) if needed. Perfect fit...Savage would have been as well.

You're post made me question some things, and stimulated me to go look at some stats. Thanks for that :-)

 

based on snap counts

We used CBs 273.26 or 2.73 CBs on the field during standard downs

We used Ss 219.19 or 2.19 Ss on the field during standard downs

 

So seems like we're playing more 3 CB packages than 3 S packages (I think the league is trending that way in general).

 

Also saw an article about being in Press Cover 3 a lot where the CBs take deep L and R, FS in the middle, and SS on the strong side.

 

FO had a good article in general that said teams are only in Base a third or less these days, and in Nickel 50+%, and dime the rest.

 

Can you point me to anything that talks about % package usage specifically for the Colts?

[EastStreet]

A little surprised so many folks voted AJ Brown. I thought I'd be in a minority.

[Reidm]

1 hour ago, stitches said:

I just found out why Jawaan Taylor is dropping in the draft:

 

 

If we draft him we need to hook him up with some fashion adviser as quickly as possible... 

 

 

Cersei is gonna be mad when she finds out her shoes are missing

[RNGDShobby]

Come and get your pick back Jets!!!

[EastStreet]

13 minutes ago, Reidm said:

 

Cersei is gonna be mad when she finds out her shoes are missing

Nah, she still PO'd that there are no elephants.

Shoes, what shoes. Where's my damn elephants. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

I voted indifferent because I am ok with what went down but would've been fine with what was available at 26-32 as well. I do like having 3 picks tonight and an extra 2nd rounder next season. I then voted that there is great talent left and I want AJ Brown now. That is my 2 cents.

 

I would be happy if we took Chase Winovich as well, a player not named on here. 

[shasta519]

1 hour ago, Irish YJ said:

You're post made me question some things, and stimulated me to go look at some stats. Thanks for that :-)

 

based on snap counts

We used CBs 273.26 or 2.73 CBs on the field during standard downs

We used Ss 219.19 or 2.19 Ss on the field during standard downs

 

So seems like we're playing more 3 CB packages than 3 S packages (I think the league is trending that way in general).

 

Also saw an article about being in Press Cover 3 a lot where the CBs take deep L and R, FS in the middle, and SS on the strong side.

 

FO had a good article in general that said teams are only in Base a third or less these days, and in Nickel 50+%, and dime the rest.

 

Can you point me to anything that talks about % package usage specifically for the Colts?

 

I have thought about Cover 3...like what SEA would run.

 

I wonder if they consider a S a S when he moves into that nickel LB role. 

 

I think 3 CBs would be more prevalent. There are going to be time when 4 of them on the field for dime, so that would skew the average a bit. Also, they ran dime with 3 CB/3 S (no Walker). 

 

To to be honest, I want the base defense to be big nickel (without a SAM). If they are playing a run-heavy team, then they can move back to a traditional 4-3. 

[ColtsBlueFL]

8 hours ago, Irish YJ said:

The overwhelming majority of fans and experts got this wrong for the Colts, and in wrong in other places.

 

It's not surprising.  Bill Polian just said the best of those outside the building only have 40% of the info needed to make a proper decision.

 

8 hours ago, LockeDown said:

Let’s face it. Ballard has said and shown that he doesn’t go by NFL.com rankings or anyone else’s for that matter, so to gauge his actions according to that will never work out.  We have to trust Braden Smith and Darius Leonard selections as proof his boards work...you just need to let it play out.

 

If they did, then why pay around ten guys salary, hotel, food to watch and write up reports on the Jr.s and Sr.s in college?  Because their 10 guys out there scouting are much better trained than the TV experts.

 

7 hours ago, Irish YJ said:

Ballard is a new GM with one really good draft where he called the shots under his belt.

I love him, but I'm not blind faith love just yet. Give me one more great draft and I might be there. Lot's of potential still left. 

 

Polian said today if a GM hits (gets at minimum a decent starter within a year or two) on 55% of his picks every year, he'll make the playoffs 5 out of 6 years.

[EastStreet]

16 minutes ago, shastamasta said:

 

I have thought about Cover 3...like what SEA would run.

 

I wonder if they consider a S a S when he moves into that nickel LB role. 

 

I think 3 CBs would be more prevalent. There are going to be time when 4 of them on the field for dime, so that would skew the average a bit. Also, they ran dime with 3 CB/3 S (no Walker). 

 

To to be honest, I want the base defense to be big nickel (without a SAM). If they are playing a run-heavy team, then they can move back to a traditional 4-3. 

based on our snap counts, if we're close to the league % from FO, i'd say were running 3 CBs about half the downs, and 4 about 10% of the time. 3 Ss about 10% of the time. and base 25ish.

 

would love to see some actual analysis of our 2018 seasons.

[shasta519]

10 minutes ago, Irish YJ said:

based on our snap counts, if we're close to the league % from FO, i'd say were running 3 CBs about half the downs, and 4 about 10% of the time. 3 Ss about 10% of the time. and base 25ish.

 

would love to see some actual analysis of our 2018 seasons.

 

Same here. If you look at S snap counts,  there had to be 3 of them on the field more than 10%. I remember Mitchell and Geathers being out there together...and later Odum and Geathers.

[EastStreet]

5 minutes ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

 

It's not surprising.  Bill Polian just said the best of those outside the building only have 40% of the info needed to make a proper decision.

The "experts" IMO these days, get the obvious early picks right, then throw darts at the board.

GMs don't always make good decisions either. Only a few teams make the playoffs, and even some of them have mediocre records/teams. I do think most experts get the "needs" part of it (they are correct with what the teams need), they just suck at grading prospects and predicting what teams will do.

 

Quote

If they did, then why pay around ten guys salary, hotel, food to watch and write up reports on the Jr.s and Sr.s in college?  Because their 10 guys out there scouting are much better trained than the TV experts.

 

not to mention all the data geeks they employ. i think Ballard hired like 8 database and stats nerds in addition to his general scouts.

 

Quote

Polian said today if a GM hits (gets at minimum a decent starter within a year or two) on 55% of his picks every year, he'll make the playoffs 5 out of 6 years.

 

Polian probably has higher expectations than me lol. But he is saying if they hit that numbers, they're going to the playoffs almost every year.

 

Purely my opinion (and partially based on an article I read), but I'd say by round....

1st - 85% of the time a first rounder should end up being a starter. Top 10 pick 95%.

2nd - 65-70% of the time should be a starter.

3rd - 50% of the time should be a starter or at min solid depth

4th - 25% a starter, 50% solid depth

5th - 10% a starter, 25% solid depth

6th and 7th are a crap shoot

 

[EastStreet]

4 minutes ago, shastamasta said:

 

Same here. If you look at S snap counts,  there had to be 3 of them on the field more than 10%. I remember Mitchell and Geathers being out there together...and later Odum and Geathers.

yup, i meant to put 20% (really 19%). typing too fast and doing to many things at once lol

[RNGDShobby]

I was praying for a trade back. Didn't get what I thought we would though. Sounds like we could get just as much for 34. Wouldn't want to trade back out of the top 40 though. Some very surprising picks but nothing too outrageous other than Jones at 6.

[Peterk2011]

I just want to live every minute of it.

 

 

 

[ColtsBlueFL]

4 minutes ago, Irish YJ said:

Polian probably has higher expectations than me lol. But he is saying if they hit that numbers, they're going to the playoffs almost every year. 

 

Then again, look at his record in Buffalo, Carolina, and Indy.  Now he's HOF.  Rightfully so.

 

In addition, he says having a blueprint and following in drafting is key.  He says his picks for the Panthers were different than his picks for the Colts.  But the blueprint for each was different (schemes, etc) but scouting/grading and drafting to the blueprint was strictly followed.  I believe Ballard is of the same mindset.

[USAFHoosier]

5 hours ago, krunk said:

I just knew Ballard was going to take Sweat but it didn't work out that way.  The commentators during the draft kept insinuating that there were other issues with Sweat outside the Medicals but they would not mention what that was.  I assume some character concerns maybe.

That would back this claim possibly then.

[RNGDShobby]

Zierlein has us taking Samuel, Trysten Hill (DT) AND Boykin in rd 2... Samuel yes, but no to the others thanks.

[EastStreet]

11 minutes ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

 

Then again, look at his record in Buffalo, Carolina, and Indy.  Now he's HOF.  Rightfully so.

 

In addition, he says having a blueprint and following in drafting is key.  He says his picks for the Panthers were different than his picks for the Colts.  But the blueprint for each was different (schemes, etc) but scouting/grading and drafting to the blueprint was strictly followed.  I believe Ballard is of the same mindset.

 

I love BP, but winning only one SB with Manning, and neglecting the D like he did, is something that still haunts me lol.

[krunk]

Matt Miller

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2833239-2019-nfl-mock-draft-matt-millers-day-2-predictions#slide1

 

AJ Brown, Dremont Jones, Juan Thornhill

[EastStreet]

7 minutes ago, RNGDShobby said:

Zierlein has us taking Samuel, Trysten Hill (DT) AND Boykin in rd 2... Samuel yes, but no to the others thanks.

I'd take AJ Brown all day long before Deebo, but I do like Deebo even though he needs polish.

AJ played well at both slot and X (when DK went down), but he's pure pro bowl beast at slot.

he could even be a Z when TY slows.

 

Boykin would be fine as he could end up being a legit speed X. 

 

I'd love to have any combo of those three though.

Just now, krunk said:

Matt Miller

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2833239-2019-nfl-mock-draft-matt-millers-day-2-predictions#slide1

 

AJ Brown, Dremont Jones, Juan Thornhill

sign me up.

I picked the same, and also an AJ Brown, CGJ, and J Love threesome.

[ColtsBlueFL]

26 minutes ago, USAFHoosier said:

That would back this claim possibly then.

 

Not a deal breaker. I've heard Charlie Weiss (of all people) says he had to coach different players in a different style. Example:

 

Player A messes up.  Charlie:  Comes storming up red faced yelling

"What the bleep were you bleep thinking there?"

 

Player B messes up.  Charlie, strolls on over to him, calmly says

"Can you tell me what you saw, and what you were thinking on that play right there?"

 

Different guys, same mess up, different questioning response probing for the answer.

 

He says as a coach, you have to know your guys and how they react/respond, and your job as coach is to coach them up and get the most out of them (even if you don't really like them sometimes) in the best way possible. And every player is a little (or a lot) different.

 

[RNGDShobby]

 

[Coltsman1788]

I really want interior defensive line help but the poll didn't have any options. Probably because most of the the best ones we have already missed out on.  Maybe they get Dremont Jones or Khalen Saunders at some point.  

 

Of the names on the poll, I'm going with Parris Campbell and I am not one of those who felt WR was our biggest need.  The way things have fallen...this is the guy that would make me the most excited because of his potential explosiveness with the possible exception of David Montgomery who reminds me of Edgerrin James.  

[DougDew]

8 hours ago, Irish YJ said:

If they we get a late 2nd, for instance 64 next year, it's a +19% value

If we get a mid 2nd (I used 49), it's a +34% value

If we get an early 2nd (I used 36), it's a +51% value

 

We need to hope that the Skins have a really bad year lol.

Skins are currently 25th in the way too early power rankings.

So by that, we have the 39th pick, and a +47% value. That would be nice!

 

IMO, a roughly 20-25% pick up is a wash on the deal.

I would have rather had Sweat or Tillery a year earlier.

How are those numbers calculated? 

 

And using whatever formula is used, what is the value today of a third round pick in 2021? And does that value change as we get closer to 2021?

[EastStreet]

5 minutes ago, DougDew said:

How are those numbers calculated? 

 

And using whatever formula is used, what is the value today of a third round pick in 2021? And does that value change as we get closer to 2021?

there are a ton of calculators out there. i've linked one below. it aligns very well with what the talking heads spit on ESPN and NFL.com

 

http://www.footballguys.com/pickvalue.php

 

it doesn't take into account future picks. IMO, a pick today, is worth more than the same spot next year (just like $).

[CoachLite]

9 hours ago, Matthew Gilbert said:

There's so many guys left that can help this team now and down the road. I wouldn't be surprised at all if they traded down again from #34.

Hope not. I'd go for quality over quantity.

[RNGDShobby]

34 & 89 for Broncos 41 & 52?

[EastStreet]

1 minute ago, RNGDShobby said:

34 & 89 for Broncos 41 & 52?

i'd hate to get out of the 30s, but it would be a 22% improvement in capital

[DougDew]

Just now, Irish YJ said:

there are a ton of calculators out there. i've linked one below. it aligns very well with what the talking heads spit on ESPN and NFL.com

 

http://www.footballguys.com/pickvalue.php

 

i doesn't take into account future picks. IMO, a pick today, is worth more than the same spot next year (just like $).

Ok.  So like the Johnson value chart, it doesn't account for the future either. 

 

I suspect what's going on here is that Jimmy Johnson is becoming an old name, so they have to sell new copy to a new generation, because new generations tend to think new stuff is better because its newer.  And if it needs a computer to calculate it rather than eyeball calculating simple math, its a "smarter" way to look at value.

 

I understand completely.  (Although I did before I asked the question)  Thanks.

[EastStreet]

2 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Ok.  So like the Johnson value chart, it doesn't account for the future either. 

 

I suspect what's going on here is that Jimmy Johnson is becoming an old name, so they have to sell new copy to a new generation, because new generations tend to think new stuff is better because its newer.  And if it needs a computer to calculate it rather than eyeball calculating simple math, its a "smarter" way to look at value.

 

I understand completely.  (Although I did before I asked the question)  Thanks.

what I think what's going on is that they took the JVC and put it online, or improved it. 

not smarter, easier. i quit carrying around my abacus at least 10 years ago.

[DougDew]

15 minutes ago, Irish YJ said:

what I think what's going on is that they took the JVC and put it online, or improved it. 

not smarter, easier. i quit carrying around my abacus at least 10 years ago.

But math is math.  The answers don't ever change.  How its computed is irrelevant, but apparently sells copy.

 

If there are evolutions or differences in the judgment used when writing algorithms for a computer to calculate a numeric value for a second round pick next year, that would matter.

[Lucky Colts Fan]

10 minutes ago, DougDew said:

But math is math.  The answers don't ever change.  How its computed is irrelevant, but apparently sells copy.

 

If there are evolutions or differences in the judgment used when writing algorithms for a computer to calculate a numeric value for a second round pick next year, that would matter.

 

Do you still buy a vehicle or house with dollar bills?

 

The price is the same, but it's a lot easier to use a newer form of payment.

 

[AZColt11]

Got a feeling they are going to move out of the 34 slot.  Maybe the Jets get their original pick back?

[OhioColt]

DE Ben Bangou looks like a big reach who reminds me of Tarell Basham.  Hopefully not a wasted pick that also gets cut and proves to be a hidden gem and not a 3-5 round reach in the 2nd. 

[EastStreet]

not a big fan so far. it's not like last year.

 

last year, i was happy with Q, happy with Smith, didn't know a lot about Leonard, but read up on him quickly and was impressed.

 

this year, i know both players well, and seems like there are better options.

 

biggest beef so far is we haven't addressed what most think are our 3 biggest needs (DT, S, and WR)

[chad72]

26 minutes ago, Irish YJ said:

not a big fan so far. it's not like last year.

 

last year, i was happy with Q, happy with Smith, didn't know a lot about Leonard, but read up on him quickly and was impressed.

 

this year, i know both players well, and seems like there are better options.

 

biggest beef so far is we haven't addressed what most think are our 3 biggest needs (DT, S, and WR)

 

WR is addressed now. It very well could be that with the re-signing of Geathers, Ballard did not feel the need for a starting safety as much as he felt the need for a starting CB. Plus, with DT value probably shot after middle of Round 1 when Simmons and Lawrence went, Ballard focused on edge rusher, which means Tyquan Lewis is moving inside. It all makes sense now.

 

Right now, we will get passing down DTs or run down DTs, whose value will be in Round 3, not 3 down DTs.

[EastStreet]

11 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

WR is addressed now. It very well could be that with the re-signing of Geathers, Ballard did not feel the need for a starting safety as much as he felt the need for a starting CB. Plus, with DT value probably shot after middle of Round 1 when Simmons and Lawrence went, Ballard focused on edge rusher, which means Tyquan Lewis is moving inside. It all makes sense now.

 

Right now, we will get passing down DTs or run down DTs, whose value will be in Round 3, not 3 down DTs.

 

I'm just a little worried about S health. I think CB is in better shape than S. And I think RYS needs a lot of polish.

 

I'm just happy we have a legit speed WR. just wish it was an X/Slot combo instead of a Z/slot combo.

 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

52 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

WR is addressed now. It very well could be that with the re-signing of Geathers, Ballard did not feel the need for a starting safety as much as he felt the need for a starting CB. Plus, with DT value probably shot after middle of Round 1 when Simmons and Lawrence went, Ballard focused on edge rusher, which means Tyquan Lewis is moving inside. It all makes sense now.

 

Right now, we will get passing down DTs or run down DTs, whose value will be in Round 3, not 3 down DTs.

With the signing of kindred safety might of got pushed down.

[chrisfarley]

6 hours ago, USAFHoosier said:

That would back this claim possibly then.

Ahhh , this makes total sense now, I was really surprised when we passed him up.  Montez needs to listen to Mellencamp's Authority Song.