What we got wrong, what now, and do you like it

[Fisticuffs111]

I loved the trade back last night but unless we get a really good offer then I'm leaning toward hoping we stay put.

Basically if we pick up more 2nd's, this year and next, then I can live with it. I'm not big on adding anything later than that. Funny enough, I think I remember reading that the 3rd round is actually a rough spot for most teams/GM's. I like 2nd's though.

[krunk]

15 minutes ago, stitches said:

 

 

Trade down again is legit option ^^^

Fully expect a big run on WR early

[GoColtsGo5150]

I really hope that the Cardinals don't take Murphy, we can trade down, accumulate picks and still take him

[Dr. T]

12 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

What about Jaylon Ferguson?

He's the best EDGE left, IMHO. I guess the knocks on him is his level of competition and his rumored poor response to coaching at the senior bowl. Reportedly, the coaches wanted him to try other moves besides the speed rush and he wouldn't listen.

[Colt Overseas]

42 minutes ago, krunk said:

I just knew Ballard was going to take Sweat but it didn't work out that way.  The commentators during the draft kept insinuating that there were other issues with Sweat outside the Medicals but they would not mention what that was.  I assume some character concerns maybe.

 

The other red flag that was raised last night was on ESPN where Chris Mortenson said that you 'can't yell at Sweat', basically implying that he is not easily coached. No idea about the truth in it though, could be completely false.

[Superman]

1 hour ago, stitches said:

-Gettleman continues to show that he doesn't know what he's doing. Saying he will keep Jones on the sidelines for the next 3 years is just the cherry on the top. 

 

I still don't get the Gettleman criticism. People should stop listening to what he says and pay attention to what he does. 

 

Gettleman: We didn't sign OBJ to trade him.

Gettleman: Trades OBJ.

Fans: Pikachu face

 

Gettleman: We might not draft a QB this year, Eli's our guy.

Gettleman: Drafts a QB.

Fans: Pikachu face

 

Gettleman: We might sit Daniel Jones for three years.

Giants: Starts Jones at some point in 2019.

Fans: Pikachu face

 

I get the criticism of the pick (although, not really; if they feel he's a franchise QB, taking him at #6 is defensible; this is the same thing people were saying about the Bears coming up for Trubisky). I don't understand taking anything Gettleman says at face value, sensationalizing it, talking about how stupid his plan is, then still being critical when he does what everyone thought he should do in the first place -- draft a QB.

[EastStreet]

29 minutes ago, stitches said:

Trade down again is legit option ^^^

 

if we do, we need to really "get over" on value.

i'm not really in the mood for more future picks lol.

i want guys this year

[stitches]

5 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I still don't get the Gettleman criticism. People should stop listening to what he says and pay attention to what he does. 

 

Gettleman: We didn't sign OBJ to trade him.

Gettleman: Trades OBJ.

Fans: Pikachu face

 

Gettleman: We might not draft a QB this year, Eli's our guy.

Gettleman: Drafts a QB.

Fans: Pikachu face

 

Gettleman: We might sit Daniel Jones for three years.

Giants: Starts Jones at some point in 2019.

Fans: Pikachu face

 

I get the criticism of the pick (although, not really; if they feel he's a franchise QB, taking him at #6 is defensible; this is the same thing people were saying about the Bears coming up for Trubisky). I don't understand taking anything Gettleman says at face value, sensationalizing it, talking about how stupid his plan is, then still being critical when he does what everyone thought he should do in the first place -- draft a QB.

 

I'm judging him for what he does. Picked a RB no. 2 instead of Darnold, then traded away OBJ and got a Nose tackle with the 1st while shipping his all pro nose tackle for a 5th... then picked a QB that's widely considered a future backup. 

 

What would you rather have? 

-Darnold + OBJ + Josh Allen

or

-Jones + Barkley + Dexter Lawrence

 

? 

 

I hate when people say "not close" for things that are obviously close, but this is not even close IMO. 

[shasta519]

My prediction is still in play. I said Ballard would trade back and Adderley would be the first pick he made.

[EastStreet]

3 minutes ago, stitches said:

 

I'm judging him for what he does. Picked a RB no. 2 instead of Darnold, then traded away OBJ and got a Nose tackle with the 1st while shipping his all pro nose tackle for a 5th... then picked a QB that's widely considered a future backup. 

 

What would you rather have? 

-Darnold + OBJ + Josh Allen

or

-Jones + Barkley + Dexter Lawrence

 

? 

 

I hate when people say "not close" for things that are obviously close, but this is not even close IMO. 

Like I said earlier, I think G'man is a clown.... but, I think OBJ was cancer. I also think the NYGs have bigger holes/issues than Eli at QB. Eli was still top 10 in yards while being one of the most sacked QBs. Throwing Darnold or Jones or anyone to the wolves would not be good. I think they got Jones as they knew it would be a good transition from Manning, and I think that's smart in a lot of ways.

 

The only headscratcher to me is that they didn't take any OL with the next two picks, and they don't have any second rounders IIRC.

[NewColtsFan]

4 hours ago, Irish YJ said:

Just saw an article in the IndyStar that showed a tweet reporting that Ballard says that there are a few left in their original "cluster of 8" guys (that they would have liked originally at 26).

That comes from last nights Ballard press conference.   It’s about 6:00 minutes long.   Ballard was asked and said there were indeed several.

 

Not sure why you think Washington’s second round pick is going to be a mid-round pick?   I think it’s more likely to be top-40.   Who does Washington have at QB?   Case Keenum, and the rookie, Haskins.  I don’t see that team winning 7-8 games. They might, but don’t think it’s likely.   Feels more like a 5-6 win team.  That would make our pick likely top-40-ish.

[EastStreet]

3 minutes ago, shastamasta said:

My prediction is still in play. I said Ballard would trade back and Adderley would be the first pick he made.

Adderley is more of a FS or S/CB hybrid. Not seeing it but who knows. I think we'll go with more of a traditional SS. 

[NewColtsFan]

51 minutes ago, Colt Overseas said:

 

The other red flag that was raised last night was on ESPN where Chris Mortenson said that you 'can't yell at Sweat', basically implying that he is not easily coached. No idea about the truth in it though, could be completely false.

I’m not sure our coaching staff is filled with yellers and screamers.   I think we had one last year.  Our OL coach did a nice job but still got fired.  So I don’t think that’s why we didn’t draft him.

 

I think he didn’t get medical clearance. I think he was off our board.  I font think Ballard had the choice.  Called him a good player last night. 

[WarGhost21]

4 hours ago, Fluke_33 said:

a second next year is a huge value.  I think it will be an early 2nd.

 

I think other similar trades were for 2 4th rounders.

 Agreed, the 2020 class is supposed to be the most loaded draft in a long time and the Redskins will be starting Haskins right out of the gate, since Alex Smith is out. Any QB will have growing pains in year one, so I could see the pick being top 40 overall easily

[EastStreet]

1 minute ago, NewColtsFan said:

That comes from last nights Ballard press conference.   It’s about 6:00 minutes long.   Ballard was asked and said there were indeed several.

 

Not sure why you think Washington’s second round pick is going to be a mid-round pick?   I think it’s more likely to be top-40.   Who does Washington have at QB?   Case Keenum, and the rookie, Haskins.  I don’t see that team winning 7-8 games. They might, but don’t think it’s likely.   Feels more like a 5-6 win team.  That would make our pick likely top-40-ish.

If Sweat plays, they'll have one of the top DLs out there. They were top 10 last year in sacks, INTs, and forced fumbles. 

 

Washington has a good young WR (Doctson) and good TE. They need another WR and someone to take over for AP. 

 

Not saying they're going to be great, but I doubt they suck. Their D will keep them in games and if Haskins hits the ground running, they could surprise a lot of teams mid year and late.

[Architects08]

4 minutes ago, Irish YJ said:

If Sweat plays, they'll have one of the top DLs out there. They were top 10 last year in sacks, INTs, and forced fumbles. 

 

Washington has a good young WR (Doctson) and good TE. They need another WR and someone to take over for AP. 

 

Not saying they're going to be great, but I doubt they suck. Their D will keep them in games and if Haskins hits the ground running, they could surprise a lot of teams mid year and late.

Guice will be back

[NewColtsFan]

2 hours ago, Irish YJ said:

I doubt the scouts are too heavy into 2020 to make that call yet. 

Not heavy enough to make a call like that IMO.

NFL Scouts are ALWAYS looking a year ahead.

 

Grigson said that’s, in kart why we took four OL in the 16 draft, because his scouts had hold him the 17 class looked very poor.

 

Turns out, they were tight.   The 17 class of OL talent was called historically bad.  I believe Ballard said the 20 class looked good enough to make the deal worth while. 

[EastStreet]

9 minutes ago, Finch23 said:

Guice will be back

Good call. Forgot about that. Even more reason.

[EastStreet]

7 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

NFL Scouts are ALWAYS looking a year ahead.

 

Grigson said that’s, in kart why we took four OL in the 16 draft, because his scouts had hold him the 17 class looked very poor.

 

Turns out, they were tight.   The 17 class of OL talent was called historically bad.  I believe Ballard said the 20 class looked good enough to make the deal worth while. 

Of course they are always looking forward. I said they will not be that deep into it. 

 

What position did Ballard say were good in 2020 (I don't recall him saying anything)?

And what position would we be waiting for? DT isn't going to be any better than what it was this year. This year's DT and Edge class was called the best in a long time by many of your favorite experts.

 

We know we have current needs at DT, S, CB, and WR. Three of those 4 have great value in the second, no? 

 

Next year (like I posted in another thread) is assumed better in QB, RB, and OT. Aside from OT (which is not as urgent as S, DT, CB, or WR), not feeling the push off to 2020.

[Superman]

42 minutes ago, stitches said:

 

I'm judging him for what he does. Picked a RB no. 2 instead of Darnold, then traded away OBJ and got a Nose tackle with the 1st while shipping his all pro nose tackle for a 5th... then picked a QB that's widely considered a future backup. 

 

What would you rather have? 

-Darnold + OBJ + Josh Allen

or

-Jones + Barkley + Dexter Lawrence

 

? 

 

I hate when people say "not close" for things that are obviously close, but this is not even close IMO. 

 

Darnold vs Jones is a matter of scouting, not strategy. But Darnold hasn't exactly lit the world on fire, and had significant question marks coming out. He was just considered the consensus safest / best QB in last year's draft, that doesn't inherently make him better than Daniel Jones. And 'future backup' is harsh. Time will tell whether Darnold or Jones are actually good NFL QBs, not pre-draft speculation.

 

You know I wouldn't have taken a RB #2 (lots of people would have, though), nor would I have drafted Lawrence. Not great value for Harrison, but I'm not overly taken with him anyway, especially at 30 years old and $9m/year. I'm not as high on Josh Allen as others; I wonder about his projection to the NFL.

 

I don't think the bolded is entirely true. And yes, maybe I'm lumping you in with the rest of the Internet and media, but you pointed out his comment that Jones isn't going to start for three years. I think we all know that's not likely to be true, just like the Ravens said Lamar Jackson was their backup but he was starting by December, and just like the Browns said Baker Mayfield was their backup but he was starting by October... and however many other examples we need to come up with. He's trolling when he brings up Aaron Rodgers. 

 

I'm not fully endorsing his plan, nor the execution of his plan. I'm just saying his words are being sensationalized. People mocked him for three and a half months for saying they might not draft a QB, then he does draft a QB, and people act like he drafted Uncle Rico instead of a legitimate NFL prospect.

 

Same thing for the Raiders and Clelin Ferrell. I can completely understand why they'd have him ahead of Allen, Sweat, and others.

[Lucky Colts Fan]

@Irish YJ  I'd like to vote on this poll, but I haven't because I don't agree with the "reasons" listed with each choice.

 

Someone could be Very Happy with the trade without "worshiping at the alter of Ballard".

 

Someone could be A Little Disappointed, but because they feel Ballard could have swindled an extra late-round pick out of WAS instead of the loss of the 5th-year option on a 1st round pick.

 

I would say I'm Indifferent, but just because I'm reserving judgement until we see how this all plays out, not because of who I wanted or who's left. 

[NewColtsFan]

6 minutes ago, Irish YJ said:

Of course they are always looking forward. I said they will not be that deep into it. 

 

What position did Ballard say were good in 2020 (I don't recall him saying anything)?

And what position would we be waiting for? DT isn't going to be any better than what it was this year. This year's DT and Edge class was called the best in a long time by many of your favorite experts.

 

We know we have current needs at DT, S, CB, and WR. Three of those 4 have great value in the second, no? 

 

Next year (like I posted in another thread) is assumed better in QB, RB, and OT. Aside from OT (which is not as urgent as S, DT, CB, or WR), not feeling the push off to 2020.

 

I don't believe Ballard made reference to specific positions, only that it looks like another good draft.    

 

And if he's got another top-40 pick,  clearly that would be helpful.

[EastStreet]

3 minutes ago, Lucky Colts Fan said:

@Irish YJ  I'd like to vote on this poll, but I haven't because I don't agree with the "reasons" listed with each choice.

 

Someone could be Very Happy with the trade without "worshiping at the alter of Ballard".

 

Better be careful, that's sacrilege to some around  here :-) 

 

Quote

Someone could be A Little Disappointed, but because they feel Ballard could have swindled an extra late-round pick out of WAS instead of the loss of the 5th-year option on a 1st round pick.

 

From a pure value perspective, we can't lose from a pure value calculation. It's a question of if the value is in the range of +20% or +50% (dependent on their performance next year). Sure, I'd would have loved to get over a little more, but can't complain too much. If it's closer to the 20%, I would have rather had JT or Sweat. If it's closer to +50%, I'll be OK assuming we get a good prospect next year with it.

 

Quote

I would say I'm Indifferent, but just because I'm reserving judgement until we see how this all plays out, not because of who I wanted or who's left. 

 

But but but, who do you feel now :-)

[Fluke_33]

1 hour ago, Dr. T said:

He's the best EDGE left, IMHO. I guess the knocks on him is his level of competition and his rumored poor response to coaching at the senior bowl. Reportedly, the coaches wanted him to try other moves besides the speed rush and he wouldn't listen.

 

ugh.  i was really high on him but if isn't coachable that is a shame.

[Dr. T]

2 minutes ago, Fluke_33 said:

ugh.  i was really high on him but if isn't coachable that is a shame.

Take it with a grain of salt. Lot's of lies buzzing around these days.

[EastStreet]

9 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

I don't believe Ballard made reference to specific positions, only that it looks like another good draft.    

 

And if he's got another top-40 pick,  clearly that would be helpful.

 

extra picks are always good, but missing out on good prospects at a position of need is always bad. 

 

i'd move back a couple spots for extra picks, but not way back. I'd prefer to keep a pick in the 30s, and in the 40s. Moving out of those ranges will make pickings very slim if you're expecting multiple starters from this draft. 

 

with what we have in picks, and with whats left, we could easily get 2 starters out of 3 positions of need (S, WR, CB), and maybe all three.

[LockeDown]

3 hours ago, Irish YJ said:

Ballard is a new GM with one really good draft where he called the shots under his belt.

I love him, but I'm not blind faith love just yet. Give me one more great draft and I might be there. Lot's of potential still left. 

 So he got lucky? Very well, then why don’t you expound for everyone the probability of a new GM having one of the best drafts in NFL history?  I’d like to see those numbers.

[Lucky Colts Fan]

6 minutes ago, Irish YJ said:

Sure, I'd would have loved to get over a little more, but can't complain too much.

 

Yeah, that would be a good reason to maybe be slightly disappointed.

 

I also don't know how to factor in the 5th year option with Ballard.

 

He's only completed his 2nd full year as our GM, so we don't really know how he's going to utilize the 5th year option with his own players.  He might be less inclined to use it on Grigsons' players, and more inclined to use it on his own.  Or vice versa, trying to hang on to Grigsons' players for an extra year for cheap, and more willing to reward his own players with a big contract after their 4th year. 

[NewColtsFan]

2 minutes ago, Irish YJ said:

 

extra picks are always good, but missing out on good prospects at a position of need is always bad. 

 

i'd move back a couple spots for extra picks, but not way back. I'd prefer to keep a pick in the 30s, and in the 40s. Moving out of those ranges will make pickings very slim if you're expecting multiple starters from this draft. 

 

with what we have in picks, and with whats left, we could easily get 2 starters out of 3 positions of need (S, WR, CB), and maybe all three.

 

I don't agree that it's ALWAYS bad.     When you have roughly 55 players who have Round 2 grades, you've got some manuevering room.     And I'm sure you've seen the buzz that Ballard might just trade down from 34.    Dont' know how far,  and I hope it's not a lot.   But if he drops say 6-8 spots and gets a high 4th round pick,  I'd be OK with that.    I'm sure you'll disagree.    Fire away!

 

[EastStreet]

2 minutes ago, Lucky Colts Fan said:

 

Yeah, that would be a good reason to maybe be slightly disappointed.

 

I also don't know how to factor in the 5th year option with Ballard.

 

He's only completed his 2nd full year as our GM, so we don't really know how he's going to utilize the 5th year option with his own players.  He might be less inclined to use it on Grigsons' players, and more inclined to use it on his own.  Or vice versa, trying to hang on to Grigsons' players for an extra year for cheap, and more willing to reward his own players with a big contract after their 4th year. 

The draft calculator factors in the 5th year option value.

 

Players hate 5th year options lol. Read an article where most teams that are very happy with the player, extends without using the 5th year, and teams that are on the fence about a guy, use the 5th. Some very contradictory stuff on the 5th out there. 

 

It's going to be interesting next year when we're dealing with Ebron, Doyle, AC, Sheard, Funchess, Rogers, Kelly, etc.. At least Moore is a RF. 

[Lucky Colts Fan]

1 minute ago, Irish YJ said:

It's going to be interesting next year when we're dealing with Ebron, Doyle, AC, Sheard, Funchess, Rogers, Kelly, etc.. At least Moore is a RF.

 

Yeah, I can't wait to see what Ballard does with Malik Hooker.  Assuming he plays well and lives up to his draft position.  That should tell us how he is going to handle his guys moving forward.

 

Personally, I hope he rewards his guys after the 4th year and the 5th option is a non-issue, which would mean drafting in the bottom of the 1st isn't really that much better than the top of the 2nd, like what he's doing. 

[EastStreet]

7 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

I don't agree that it's ALWAYS bad.     When you have roughly 55 players who have Round 2 grades, you've got some manuevering room.     And I'm sure you've seen the buzz that Ballard might just trade down from 34.    Dont' know how far,  and I hope it's not a lot.   But if he drops say 6-8 spots and gets a high 4th round pick,  I'd be OK with that.    I'm sure you'll disagree.    Fire away!

 

I already said I'd be OK with dropping a few spots... 

 

I said it's always good to get extra picks and always bad to miss out on legit players at positions of need. Both are true.

 

It's the value calculation or delta between the two (when both happens in a trade) that determines what the ultimate product of the two are. If we get an extra pick and luck out by getting a good player in the reduced spot, AND we do well with the extra pick, they heck yes, the overall product is a positive. But that's assuming all of those things are positive.

 

If we get one guy that pans out and one that doesn't, vs the guy we could have got, the product is not so clear. If the guy we missed out on is a stud, and we get two guys that don't work out, that's a failure. We won't know until it pans out.

[Scott Pennock]

3 hours ago, Irish YJ said:

 

our weakest link on D is DT though. we passed on likely T1 guys. 

steep drop off.

Not sure I agree as we have thecsame interior lineman that we had last year and they held up pretty well. Khalen Saunders is one of the guys I'm betting on to fill out the middle of our line.

[NewColtsFan]

2 minutes ago, Irish YJ said:

I already said I'd be OK with dropping a few spots... 

 

I said it's always good to get extra picks and always bad to miss out on legit players at positions of need. Both are true.

 

It's the value calculation or delta between the two (when both happens in a trade) that determines what the ultimate product of the two are. If we get an extra pick and luck out by getting a good player in the reduced spot, AND we do well with the extra pick, they heck yes, the overall product is a positive. But that's assuming all of those things are positive.

 

If we get one guy that pans out and one that doesn't, vs the guy we could have got, the product is not so clear. If the guy we missed out on is a stud, and we get two guys that don't work out, that's a failure. We won't know until it pans out.

 

Yes....   all the possible hits,  and all the possible misses are what makes the draft such a great event.

 

Back in 2012,  Grigson's first draft was judged to be the 9th best draft of all-time.   Everyone raved.

 

Then guys like Fleener and Allen under-peformed.   Then Vick Ballard got hurt.   Then Brazil smoked his way out of the league.    And Chapman put on too much weight and was never the same after his injury in college.    Suddenly,  that historically great draft doesn't look nearly as great.    It's basically Luck and Hilton.

 

And that could happen to Ballard's draft last year.   What if Turay and Lewis don't become what we hope they will?    What if Fountain and Wilkins don't turn into anything.    What if Cain's off the field issues come back?     All sorts of things COULD happen.   Not saying they will.

 

That's why not everyone is cut-out to be a GM.    It's not for the weak,  the meak,  or the faint of heart!

 

[EastStreet]

15 minutes ago, LockeDown said:

 So he got lucky? Very well, then why don’t you expound for everyone the probability of a new GM having one of the best drafts in NFL history?  I’d like to see those numbers.

I didn't use the word luck. 

 

Off the top of my head (I really don't follow GMs from other teams)

Ozzie Newsome hit a homerun in his first year 1996

John Schneider did awesome his first year 2010

Colbert, also in 2010, hit a homerun

 

 

[EastStreet]

9 minutes ago, Scott Pennock said:

Not sure I agree as we have thecsame interior lineman that we had last year and they held up pretty well. Khalen Saunders is one of the guys I'm betting on to fill out the middle of our line.

well, almost all "experts" said DT is our biggest need. it was also the most voted in a few of the board poles.

 

it's not just my opinion.

[EastStreet]

10 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Yes....   all the possible hits,  and all the possible misses are what makes the draft such a great event.

 

Back in 2012,  Grigson's first draft was judged to be the 9th best draft of all-time.   Everyone raved.

 

Then guys like Fleener and Allen under-peformed.   Then Vick Ballard got hurt.   Then Brazil smoked his way out of the league.    And Chapman put on too much weight and was never the same after his injury in college.    Suddenly,  that historically great draft doesn't look nearly as great.    It's basically Luck and Hilton.

 

And that could happen to Ballard's draft last year.   What if Turay and Lewis don't become what we hope they will?    What if Fountain and Wilkins don't turn into anything.    What if Cain's off the field issues come back?     All sorts of things COULD happen.   Not saying they will.

 

That's why not everyone is cut-out to be a GM.    It's not for the weak,  the meak,  or the faint of heart!

 

And that's exactly why I love Ballard, but not blind love level yet.

[EastStreet]

21 minutes ago, Lucky Colts Fan said:

 

Yeah, I can't wait to see what Ballard does with Malik Hooker.  Assuming he plays well and lives up to his draft position.  That should tell us how he is going to handle his guys moving forward.

 

Personally, I hope he rewards his guys after the 4th year and the 5th option is a non-issue, which would mean drafting in the bottom of the 1st isn't really that much better than the top of the 2nd, like what he's doing. 

 

He's definitely going to have some decisions to make. And while the guys might be Grigson drafted, I'm sure Ballard tells them they are all his guys now. If you treat them different, you're going to have morale issues with the Grigson drafted guys that you want to keep. 

 

I hope he rewards our guys too. It's important for morale. But I also hope he rewards performance/production. It's a tough job regardless. It's going to be a tough situation with Ebron and Doyle next year. I think Doyle will be gone unless he has a very good year this season. How he handles Funchess will be interesting if DF is in the 500 yard range.

[shasta519]

1 hour ago, Irish YJ said:

Adderley is more of a FS or S/CB hybrid. Not seeing it but who knows. I think we'll go with more of a traditional SS. 

 

Colts run a Cover 2...and a lot of big nickel. Geathers/Kindred can play that third S at the line...but they need another guy that can cover. 

 

With Adderley, you have two Ss who can cover their zones. He also has ball skills and can man up on TEs in the base defense (or Cover 1) if needed. Perfect fit...Savage would have been as well.

[stitches]

I just found out why Jawaan Taylor is dropping in the draft:

 

 

If we draft him we need to hook him up with some fashion adviser as quickly as possible...