PFF: Colts' secondary ranks 31st(out 32) and TJ Green is dead last in both overall and coverage grades

[stitches]

https://www.profootballfocus.com/pro-ranking-all-32-nfl-secondaries-this-season/

 

 

Quote

 

31. Indianapolis Colts (23)

Top overall grade: S Mike Adams, 83.3 (No. 20)

Top coverage grade: CB Darius Butler, 83.2 (No. 18)

Top run defense grade: S Clayton Geathers, 90.3 (No. 6)

Most snaps: S Mike Adams, 997

The Colts’ secondary received little help from the front-seven’s pass rush this season, but they also did little to help themselves at times, with 62 missed tackles from defensive backs (third-most in the league). Vontae Davis earned a below-average coverage grade for the first season in his career; he actually only had two above-average games in coverage, coming against Brock Osweiler in Week 6 and Blake Bortles in Week 17. Safety T.J. Green had a terribly rough rookie season, as he finished dead-last (91st) among safeties in overall and coverage grades. On the positive side, Mike Adams bounced back well from a down year in 2015, and Darius Butler played really well in coverage as the Colts used him more in the slot and as a safety than previously in his career.

 

 

My eye test doesn't seem to have lied to me. TJ Green seemed like a complete liability every time he was required to cover. I don't think he ever turns his head towards the ball in coverage. It's really discouraging that we didn't see any progress whatsoever by the end of the year. I felt like this was a wasted pick at the time and I still have hard time justifying it.

[Boiler_Colt]

They tried to warn us when we drafted him. But hey, he's fast right?

[jvan1973]

5 minutes ago, Boiler_Colt said:

They tried to warn us when we drafted him. But hey, he's fast right?

Who tried to warn them?

[Boiler_Colt]

1 minute ago, jvan1973 said:

Who tried to warn them?

PFF had him rated as the worst in coverage coming out of college too, is what I meant.

[csmopar]

[OffensivelyPC]

9 minutes ago, Boiler_Colt said:

They tried to warn us when we drafted him. But hey, he's fast right?

Part of that warning was it would take a year or so to really make strides (he hadn't played much safety at all in college if I recall correctly).  If you dislike drafting him because we shouldn't spend a 2nd on a project player, that's one thing and a fair argument.  Criticizing the Colts because he didn't do well in his first yera really isn't a strong criticism because it was expected when "they tried to warn us."

[Flash7]

4 minutes ago, OffensivelyPC said:

Part of that warning was it would take a year or so to really make strides (he hadn't played much safety at all if I recall correctly).  If you dislike drafting him because we shouldn't spend a 2nd on a project player, that's one thing and a fair argument.  Criticizing the Colts because he didn't do well in his first yera really isn't a strong criticism because it was expected when "they tried to warn us."

Green is a player with great measurables and raw talent, but very little experience. 

 

If it was expected that he would play horribly his first year, then they should not have played him or drafted him. Draft a player that you expect to play well.

[UKColt13]

As I remember he was only a 1 year starter in college. 

 

He he shouldn't have been starting this year imo. Doesn't have the instincts and awareness yet.

[DougDew]

Taking a safety that has poor coverage skills is not really worthy of a second round pick.  It was a head scratcher at the time and still is, especially considering all of the other picks in the draft were appropriately valued in terms of talent and skill, IMO.

 

It almost makes me think that Pagano wanted this guy and Grigson threw him a bone.  I can't imagine Grigson wanting to draft Green over the protest of the DB whisperer.

[throwing BBZ]

29 minutes ago, Boiler_Colt said:

They tried to warn us when we drafted him. But hey, he's fast right?

 

 He looked as lost as anyone i have ever seen in deep coverage.
 Kinda like CB Chris Milton in pre-season and OUR Guys kept him too!  
 Green is ours now so GO T J!!!

[BullsColtsFan1]

31st out of 32nd?  Hey at least they weren't dead last!

[WarGhost21]

Green was a liability, and I'll admit that. But look at Landon Collins. He was one of the worst cover safeties in the league his rookie season, then had a huge breakout this year. Hopefully, Green can pull something like that together. I wouldn't mind Landon Collins' clone in our secondary.

[Mr. Irrelevant]

2 minutes ago, BullsColtsFan1 said:

31st out of 32nd?  Hey at least they weren't dead last!

[Reboot]

When DBs taken around Green included Sean Davis, Cyrus Jones, Vonn Bell, it doesn't help either.  But this, to me, is Grigson in a nutshell.  He seems to draft as if he has years to let players grow into it.  And that isn't the way the NFL has worked for a long time.  In a draft we all knew would be OL heavy, he takes a WR to play S in the second round.  I don't care how fast he is.  He hasn't played safety long enough to know how to spell the word.  Green would have been a great pick for a team like the Seahawks.  Not the Colts. 

[OffensivelyPC]

5 minutes ago, Flash7 said:

Green is a player with great measurables and raw talent, but very little experience. 

 

If it was expected that he would play horribly his first year, then they should not have played him or drafted him. Draft a player that you expect to play well.

He wasn't expected to play except in sub packages, but injuries changed that.  The rest of what you said is armchair GM'ing and we can go in circles all day over that.  There are philosophical reasons why you might take a risker player with a higher reward or a safer player with a lower ceiling (not to mention your projections could be off on both, for better or worse).  Player projections are unpredictable and the draft is a crapshoot, so I mean, yeah, you can go your route, but we could all find guys that you like or I liked and say "Well you should have done this or that."  Like yeah, okay, but I obviously we can't predict the future.

[AKB]

I do not think that Green was slated to play nearly as much as he did this year. But in the bigger picture does it really matter that he had a bad year? Even if  Adams and Geathers played every single snap, the season would not have gone much better. There are only a couple plays I can remember where he absolutely got burned. (And I can say the same for Mr. Davis, perhaps he should not have started either?)

 

Everyone knew we would have a mediocre season at best, I am glad the kid got some experience. I am expecting them to retain Adams and Butler. I'm excited for Green, hes young and he is fast. He just needs to be groomed a little more.

 

Good thing we have the best DB coach in the league right? ;)

[Synthetic]

 

Wait, no Patrick Robinson? 

 

Tried to tell you all that he was horrible in N.O. and no one listened to me last summer. 

[Steamboat_Shaun]

32 minutes ago, DougDew said:

It almost makes me think that Pagano wanted this guy and Grigson threw him a bone.  I can't imagine Grigson wanting to draft Green over the protest of the DB whisperer.

 

I'm starting to think that happens a lot more than we may realize, possibly 50% of our picks. I think you can look at our defense and pick out which guys are Grigson picks or FA aquisitions, and which were instances where Pagano "got his guy."

 

Pagano Guys

TJ Green, Antonio Morrison, D'Joun Smith

 

Grigson Guys

Henry Anderson, Jerrell Freeman, Clayton Geathers, Hassan Ridgeway

 

Just my opinion, and I could be totally wrong, but I've always had the feeling that the "reaches" we see in our drafts are guys that Pagano really likes for whatever reason.

[Colts_Fan12]

That's a Shocker

[Coffeedrinker]

22 minutes ago, Steamboat_Shaun said:

 

I'm starting to think that happens a lot more than we may realize, possibly 50% of our picks. I think you can look at our defense and pick out which guys are Grigson picks or FA aquisitions, and which were instances where Pagano "got his guy."

 

Pagano Guys

TJ Green, Antonio Morrison, D'Joun Smith

 

Grigson Guys

Henry Anderson, Jerrell Freeman, Clayton Geathers, Hassan Ridgeway

 

Just my opinion, and I could be totally wrong, but I've always had the feeling that the "reaches" we see in our drafts are guys that Pagano really likes for whatever reason.

You're right you have no evidence that your break down is accurate.  But for the sake of argument, let's say it is accurate, then it's still Grigson's fault for letting the coach decide who to draft.

[Jason_]

what would anyone expect with a secondary made up of guys like Chris Milton, Rashaan Melvin, Darryl Morris and a raw TJ Green that shouldn't have gotten to play nearly as many snaps as he unfortunately had to due to injuries.

[RockThatBlue]

Thats bad for a HC who is supposed to be a DB whisperer. Though there have been injuries and other things in the secondary, if you're known as a DB specialist, that unit should probably be better than 31st in your 5th season. I don't care much for PFF, but this is one of the times they are right IMO.

 

There were a few times where that unit played well, with individuals like Melvin and even Morris playing decently, but overall they were not good.

[Bravo]

1 hour ago, BullsColtsFan1 said:

31st out of 32nd?  Hey at least they weren't dead last!

 

Seems like the Colts have been okay with that lately!

[Jason_]

5 minutes ago, RockThatBlue said:

Thats bad for a HC who is supposed to be a DB whisperer. Though there have been injuries and other things in the secondary, if you're known as a DB specialist, that unit should probably be better than 31st in your 5th season. I don't care much for PFF, but this is one of the times they are right IMO.

 

There were a few times where that unit played well, with individuals like Melvin and even Morris playing decently, but overall they were not good.

 

OK I kind of get this, but at the same time, given that Pagano and co. were able to get us through the season with guys like Melvin and Morris (don't forget Chris Milton) playing decently at times and finish with a competitive record...doesn't that support the theory of Pagano being a DB specialist rather than work against him?

 

It shouldn't take much to get a Richard Sherman, Darrelle Revis etc to play well, but to pluck guys like Milton, Melvin and Morris literally off the street and still field a competitive team...that should be a positive for Pagano, not a negative. 

[VaAllDay757]

54 minutes ago, Synthetic said:

 

Wait, no Patrick Robinson? 

 

Tried to tell you all that he was horrible in N.O. and no one listened to me last summer. 

He was hurt for the most part and he didn't fit their scheme he was good in san diego

[Steamboat_Shaun]

30 minutes ago, Coffeedrinker said:

You're right you have no evidence that your break down is accurate.  But for the sake of argument, let's say it is accurate, then it's still Grigson's fault for letting the coach decide who to draft.

 

Yeah, it was more for sake of discussion. If I'm wrong I don't really care, I just wouldn't be surprised if that were the case with at least a couple of these head scratcher defensive picks. But a GM (unless he's just the best GM ever) usually has to allow his head coach to give him some input on draft picks. I just don't see how it would work otherwise.

[csmopar]

43 minutes ago, VaAllDay757 said:

He was hurt for the most part and he didn't fit their scheme he was good in san diego

kind of like how he's been for us?   another injury prone player... I swear they should just changed the name to the Indianapolis Injured Colts.

[BullsColtsFan1]

2 hours ago, Mr Clueless said:

 

We can look at it this way?

[BullsColtsFan1]

1 hour ago, Jason_S said:

what would anyone expect with a secondary made up of guys like Chris Milton, Rashaan Melvin, Darryl Morris and a raw TJ Green that shouldn't have gotten to play nearly as many snaps as he unfortunately had to due to injuries.

You are 100% correct.  So this should mean the GM should upgrade at cornerback this off season correct?  Robinson was injured a lot of the year but wasn't that great anyways.  Vontae and Butler are the only two decent corners the Colts have.  I think Geathers and Adams were solid at safety.  Might need to find a replacement for Adams if he doesn't come back. 

[21isSuperman]

TJ Green, ladies and gentlemen....

[krunk]

Hey I ain't surprised with the data.  Hope he gets his stuff together in the second year.

[Defjamz26]

41 minutes ago, Steamboat_Shaun said:

 

Yeah, it was more for sake of discussion. If I'm wrong I don't really care, I just wouldn't be surprised if that were the case with at least a couple of these head scratcher defensive picks. But a GM (unless he's just the best GM ever) usually has to allow his head coach to give him some input on draft picks. I just don't see how it would work otherwise.

Well during the post draft press conference last year Grigson alluded to Pagano literally jumping up and down on the table for Green, or something to that affect. So I assume that with them supposed to be learning to get along as mandated by Irsay, that Green was a Pagano pick.

[jvan1973]

1 hour ago, Synthetic said:

 

Wait, no Patrick Robinson? 

 

Tried to tell you all that he was horrible in N.O. and no one listened to me last summer. 

Every DB is horrible in New Orleans

[Steamboat_Shaun]

6 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

Well during the post draft press conference last year Grigson alluded to Pagano literally jumping up and down on the table for Green, or something to that affect. So I assume that with them supposed to be learning to get along as mandated by Irsay, that Green was a Pagano pick.

 

God, I forgot about that.

[mahagga73]

1 hour ago, Jason_S said:

what would anyone expect with a secondary made up of guys like Chris Milton, Rashaan Melvin, Darryl Morris and a raw TJ Green that shouldn't have gotten to play nearly as many snaps as he unfortunately had to due to injuries.

He cant tackle or cover. Not seeing how that is going to magically come together next year. 

[Reboot]

10 minutes ago, jvan1973 said:

Every DB is horrible in New Orleans

I like Vonn Bell - and he was taken just a couple picks behind Green.  Oh, and according to that same PFF ranking, ended up 10th ranked against the run.  In the whole NFL.  That's great production from a rookie safety.  Also, he played DB all three years at Ohio St., unlike the guy Grigson picked.  Although I'm hiding it well, I do wish the Colts had taken him instead.  He was there at the same spot.

[jvan1973]

1 minute ago, Dirty Mudflaps said:

I like Vonn Bell - and he was taken just a couple picks behind Green.  Oh, and according to that same PFF ranking, ended up 10th ranked against the run.  In the whole NFL.  That's great production from a rookie safety.  Also, he played DB all three years at Ohio St., unlike the guy Grigson picked.  Although I'm hiding it well, I do wish the Colts had taken him instead.  He was there at the same spot.

That's actually who I thought we were gonna take as the draft unfolded.  Bell or whitehair.  I wasn't thrilled with the green pick,  but have to be hopeful

[Coffeedrinker]

29 minutes ago, Steamboat_Shaun said:

 

Yeah, it was more for sake of discussion. If I'm wrong I don't really care, I just wouldn't be surprised if that were the case with at least a couple of these head scratcher defensive picks. But a GM (unless he's just the best GM ever) usually has to allow his head coach to give him some input on draft picks. I just don't see how it would work otherwise.

I agree a good leader always listens to his subordinates (Iassuming he/she has done a good job hiring subordinates) but you don't give them the final say.

 

This isn't necessarily directed at you Steamboat, but I am surprised at how many hardcore football fans don't understand the relationship between HC and GM.  In a nutshell, the coach and GM get together and the coach describes the traits he wants in a player at each position and then he and the GM assign a priority and weight to each trait.  Then the GM leads the scouting department to grade each player they scout and assign a number to each of those traits, then it's simple math, multiply the trait number by the trait weight, add all those numbers together and there is the player grade.

 

So, for example the coach and gm are looking at CB, coach says the traits that are important are height, arm length, acceleration, football intelligence, speed and jumping ability.  Then they decide they assign the following weights to each trait

Football Intelligence (1.0)

Acceleration (0.93)

height (0.88)

Arm Length (0.75)

Speed (0.85)

Jumping ability (0.70)

 

So the scout grades Player A

FI - 93 x 1 = 93

Acc - 96 x 0.93 = 89.28

Height 85 x 0.88 =74.8

AL - 92 x 0.75 = 69

Speed 88 x 0.85 =  74.8

JA - 99 x 0.7 = 69.3

 

Total Grade = 470.18

 

So the scout grades Player B

FI - 85 x 1 = 85

Acc - 99 x 0.93 = 92.07

Height 95 x 0.88 =83.6

AL - 92 x 0.75 = 69

Speed 93 x 0.85 =  79.05

JA - 85 x 0.7 = 59.5

 

Total Grade = 468.22

 

Now, if Player A and Player B are available, even if the coach is pounding on the table saying he's wants player B... the GM needs to say no and choose player B.  If he gives in, then that is on the GM.  And that is true even if Player a and player B play different positions.

 

 

[jvan1973]

1 minute ago, Coffeedrinker said:

I agree a good leader always listens to his subordinates (Iassuming he/she has done a good job hiring subordinates) but you don't give them the final say.

 

This isn't necessarily directed at you Steamboat, but I am surprised at how many hardcore football fans don't understand the relationship between HC and GM.  In a nutshell, the coach and GM get together and the coach describes the traits he wants in a player at each position and then he and the GM assign a priority and weight to each trait.  Then the GM leads the scouting department to grade each player they scout and assign a number to each of those traits, then it's simple math, multiply the trait number by the trait weight, add all those numbers together and there is the player grade.

 

So, for example the coach and gm are looking at CB, coach says the traits that are important are height, arm length, acceleration, football intelligence, speed and jumping ability.  Then they decide they assign the following weights to each trait

Football Intelligence (1.0)

Acceleration (0.93)

height (0.88)

Arm Length (0.75)

Speed (0.85)

Jumping ability (0.70)

 

So the scout grades Player A

FI - 93 x 1 = 93

Acc - 96 x 0.93 = 89.28

Height 85 x 0.88 =74.8

AL - 92 x 0.75 = 69

Speed 88 x 0.85 =  74.8

JA - 99 x 0.7 = 69.3

 

Total Grade = 470.18

 

So the scout grades Player B

FI - 85 x 1 = 85

Acc - 99 x 0.93 = 92.07

Height 95 x 0.88 =83.6

AL - 92 x 0.75 = 69

Speed 93 x 0.85 =  79.05

JA - 85 x 0.7 = 59.5

 

Total Grade = 468.22

 

Now, if Player A and Player B are available, even if the coach is pounding on the table saying he's wants player B... the GM needs to say no and choose player B.  If he gives in, then that is on the GM.  And that is true even if Player a and player B play different positions.

 

 

[DougDew]

2 hours ago, Steamboat_Shaun said:

 

I'm starting to think that happens a lot more than we may realize, possibly 50% of our picks. I think you can look at our defense and pick out which guys are Grigson picks or FA aquisitions, and which were instances where Pagano "got his guy."

 

Pagano Guys

TJ Green, Antonio Morrison, D'Joun Smith

 

Grigson Guys

Henry Anderson, Jerrell Freeman, Clayton Geathers, Hassan Ridgeway

 

Just my opinion, and I could be totally wrong, but I've always had the feeling that the "reaches" we see in our drafts are guys that Pagano really likes for whatever reason.

Don't know if I can go quite that far, but if you look at last year's draft, it looks like it was done in "the spirit of cooperation" .  First pick Kelly, then defense, then Clark, then back to defense, then Haeg.  I think Pagano had input into all of the picks, but definitely the defensive players.