Comparing/contrasting Luck with Wilson, RG3 and Rodgers First Four Years

[NewColtsFan]

 

For your consideration:

 

I'm of the view that we're going to see the best Andrew Luck we've seen so far.     I'm modestly hopeful that year 5 is a breakout year for him.     I think he's capable of a lot more and I believe we'll see it this year.      Call it the Chudzinkski/Philbin/Schottemheimer factor.

 

BUT....

 

I'd like to show you --- in part --- why I don't think we've seen the best of Luck in his first four years.     With the help of numbers I'm going to show you what we've asked Luck to do and compare that with what Seattle asked Wilson to do,  Washington asked RG3 to do and with what GB asked Rodgers to do in his first four years of full time playing (08-11)

 

So....   I'll try to keep this simple.....      Years going Left to Right....    Names going top to bottom.     I'm giving you pass attempts and games played then pass attempts PER GAME.       That's the key...   pass attempts per game.      The numbers will jump out at you.

 

 

 

                                        2012                            2013                     2014                        2015

 

Luck                               627/16                         570/16                  616/16                      293/7   

                                          39 per game               35.6                      38.5                         41.9 

 

Wilson                            393/16                         407/16                  457/16                     483/16

                                         24.5 per game             25.4                      28.5                          30

 

RG3                                393/15                         456/13                  214/9-7                      0/0

                                          26 per game                 35                         30                            0

 

                                       (2008)                          (2009)                  (2010)                      (2011)

Rodgers                         536/15                         541/16                 475/15                     502/15

                                         35.7 per game              33.8                     31.7                         34.5

 

 

NOTE:      Look at how many more passes Luck has been asked to throw per game in each of his first 4 years.   The other three QB's all had better o-lines,  better running games, and better defenses to support their quarterback.     Bottom line: Luck has been asked to do much more with much less.    If you want to know why --- at least, in part --- Luck has not been the quarterback you hoped he would be,  I believe these numbers tell a large part of the story.

 

I believe the new coach are going to try and have Luck throw closer to 36 passes a game.     But I think we're finally going to see Luck complete closer to 63 or 64 percent where we have always expected him to.     I'm hopeful that the days of him completing below 60 percent are over.    His numbers have to be better if this offense is to finally get to the next level.      I think this new coaching staff can bring it out of him.

 

 

[dgambill]

If you think Luck is going to be asked to do less....I think your sadly mistaken. Honestly Ive seen nothing to suggest that we can run the ball any more successfully than before. I do think we are making progress towards investing and building a better line but until I see a more dynamic running game Luck will continue to be asked to throw the ball close to 38-40 times a game. The only playmakers this offense has is at wide out right now. I love Frank the Tank but he is not going to drive fear or even respect into our running game. He is a hard nosed work horse that will grind you out yards but behind this green OL...Luck is going to have to throw a lot...and be very very efficient doing it. I wish you were right...but Edge isn't walking through that door. Marshall isn't walking through that door....Dickerson isn't walking through that door. We will only go as far as Andrews's arm takes us. Hopefully by next year our line starts to come together and build off this season and we draft a nice young back that will help take the load off Andrew but I see nothing in the makeup of this team (offense/defense) that suggest we will expect anything less from Luck.

[21isSuperman]

I echo what @dgambill said.  Given the general lack of reliability at RB and on the defense, I think Luck will have to continue to shoulder the load.  In my opinion, that falls on Grigson for not being able to assemble a solid roster after several years and plenty of cap space.  You can't blame him for injuries and things of that nature, but the bottom line is he hasn't done a good job assembling a complete team.  So our best chance to win is to try and have our QB overcome the many holes in the roster.  In my opinion, that's not a reliable formula for winning championships.

[2006Coltsbestever]

Just for fun I looked up QB's wins/losses records per start - Regular Season/Playoffs combined for QB's that were drafted since the 2010 Season = this decade 2010-2019. Here are the top 5 QB's by winning% - at least 25 starts minimum to give us a decent sample size:

1. Russell Wilson 51-23 .716 + he does have a 1 SB win so he is #1.

2. Andrew Luck 38-23 .623 no SB wins, yes Andrew is 2nd!

3. Andy Dalton 49-30-1 .619 no SB wins (surprisingly 0 Playoff wins).

4. Teddy Bridgewater 17-12 .586 no SB wins.

5. Colin Kaepernick 31-22 .585 no SB wins.

6. Cam Newton would come in at 6th believe it or not at 48-36-1 .571 no SB wins, not even making the Top 5. A SB win offsets winning% but Cam hasn't won a SB so winning% is the main stat to look at once a QB has had 25 starts or so IMO.

 

-the only QB that has started and won a SB is Russell Wilson out of any QB's drafted since 2010. Andrew Luck has had the 2nd most success out of any QB drafted since the decade started winning% wise and has done it with suspect Defense, no run game, and many questioning Grigson's management skills. RG3 is 14-22 = .389  in his career and has never won a Playoff game. Winning talks, nonsense walks!

[southwest1]

46 minutes ago, dgambill said:

I wish you were right...but Edge isn't walking through that door. Marshall isn't walking through that door....Dickerson isn't walking through that door.

NCF though is inferring or at least hoping the Joe Philbin will be able to open running lanes getting both Gore & Turbin to the 2nd level before they see legitimate contact or get tackled by a LB. 

 

INDY has always been a passing team to open up the run DG. We've never been Baltimore or Pittsburgh even when we had EDGE. 

[jradMT]

Hits on Luck (Wilson)  and keep in mind these are while passing, not including running the ball and taking hits downfield, 

 

YEAR              HITS ON QB           HIGH TEAM HITS ON QB      RANK

2012                   116       (64)                    118                                  2 (28)

2013                   109       (94)                    121                                 3  (11)

2014                    107        (91)                  124                                 4 (12)

2015                    118         (114)                  123                                 2    (3)  (NOT ALL ON LUCK)

 

Rodgers 2-5th year, dont have stats for 08,  93, 67, 73, 85 

 

Through 3 seasons,  Luck has taken more 99 hits than Rodgers in AR's 2-4th year,  83 more hits as a passer than Wilson, who gets hit alot behind that questionable o-line.  Roughly a full season for a QB that gets hit more than 2/3 the league.  Not only has Luck been asked to shoulder the load, he has took sever punishment in the process.  Some of that is on him for holding the ball.  Doesn't seem sustainable in the long term, Luck can't continue to be near the top of the most hit qb's every year and still be able to be expected to throw this much.

[AZColt11]

The numbers tell a lot but I side with the others in that I don't see this trend going down considerably anytime soon.  Would help if we could continue to build the OL the way we all want it to be and hand the ball off more.  But until they are more effective running it I think we'll continue to see Andy being asked to do more.

[southwest1]

37 minutes ago, 21isSuperman said:

I echo what @dgambill said.  Given the general lack of reliability at RB and on the defense, I think Luck will have to continue to shoulder the load.  In my opinion, that falls on Grigson for not being able to assemble a solid roster after several years and plenty of cap space.  You can't blame him for injuries and things of that nature, but the bottom line is he hasn't done a good job assembling a complete team.  So our best chance to win is to try and have our QB overcome the many holes in the roster.  In my opinion, that's not a reliable formula for winning championships.

So, what your saying is INDY is going to adopt the St. Louis Rams 1999 'Greatest Show On Turf' approach circa 1999...Yeah, I agree with that. 

 

What I highlighted in red is the most insightful section of your post too 21. Bravo! 

[southwest1]

The thing that always bothers me about the favoritism that Wilson always gets is this: NFL pundits act like RW's scrambling ability & accuracy alone accounts for his Championship success. It's like they gloss over the Pacific Northwest's secondary, Tim Cable's fingerprints all over that line, & their above average ground game. 

 

It just makes me laugh how they act like #3 is Doug Flutie reincarnated or something. Just absurd. I'm not saying Wilson isn't talented, he is. All I mean is that if you took him out of Seattle & put him on say the New Orleans roster with a lousy defense would he be winning SBs? Hades no. 

 

Yes, I know he graduated from UW-Madison my alma mater & I have nothing against him personally. It just bothers me how he played like crap vs GB, makes a billion to 1 throw in the 4th QTR after stinking up the joint for almost 3 & a half quarters & I'm supposed to kiss his caboose because he made it to a second SB in short order? No. RW shouldn't have even been playing in the SB vs NE Aaron Rogers should have. End rant. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

3 minutes ago, southwest1 said:

The thing that always bothers me about the favoritism that Wilson always gets is this: NFL pundits act like RW's scrambling ability & accuracy alone accounts for his Championship success. It's like they gloss over the Pacific Northwest's secondary, Tim Cable's fingerprints all over that line, & their above average ground game. 

 

It just makes me laugh how they act like #3 is Doug Flutie reincarnated or something. Just absurd. I'm not saying Wilson isn't talented, he is. All I mean is that if you took him out of Seattle & put him on say the New Orleans roster with a lousy defense would he be winning SBs? Hades no. 

I would take Andrew Luck if I was starting a franchise regarding QB's that have been drafted this decade. My win/loss chart was basically just showing the QB's who have had the most success this decade and Andrew was 2nd behind Wilson. Wilson definitely has had a better Defense and run game compared to Andrew so that is noted. In my original Post I even Posted Andrew has won .623 of his games with suspect Defense and no run game.

[2006Coltsbestever]

1 hour ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Just for fun I looked up QB's wins/losses records per start - Regular Season/Playoffs combined for QB's that were drafted since the 2010 Season = this decade 2010-2019. Here are the top 5 QB's by winning% - at least 25 starts minimum to give us a decent sample size:

1. Russell Wilson 51-23 .716 + he does have a 1 SB win so he is #1.

2. Andrew Luck 38-23 .623 no SB wins, yes Andrew is 2nd!

3. Andy Dalton 49-30-1 .619 no SB wins (surprisingly 0 Playoff wins).

4. Teddy Bridgewater 17-12 .586 no SB wins.

5. Colin Kaepernick 31-22 .585 no SB wins.

6. Cam Newton would come in at 6th believe it or not at 48-36-1 .571 no SB wins, not even making the Top 5. A SB win offsets winning% but Cam hasn't won a SB so winning% is the main stat to look at once a QB has had 25 starts or so IMO.

 

-the only QB that has started and won a SB is Russell Wilson out of any QB's drafted since 2010. Andrew Luck has had the 2nd most success out of any QB drafted since the decade started winning% wise and has done it with suspect Defense, no run game, and many questioning Grigson's management skills. RG3 is 14-22 = .389  in his career and has never won a Playoff game. Winning talks, nonsense walks!

To follow this up and the reasoning for doing so, how many people would've guessed Cam Newton would be 6th on a list like this? He basically has had 1 Very Good season which was 2013 when Carolina went 12-5 and 1 Great season which was last season W/L wise going 17-2. Cam has had actually 3 seasons that were Mediocre to Bad record wise!

[southwest1]

8 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Wilson definitely has had a better Defense and run game compared to Andrew so that is noted. In my original Post I even Posted Andrew has won .623 of his games with suspect Defense and no run game

I do contemplate sometimes how good even great Andrew would be if he had say the Bengals defense & running game mixed with Seattle's o-line by like week 5.

 

Darn man! Skip Bayless would be swallowing his own tongue. 

[NewColtsFan]

 

I don't think I"m suggesting the Colts will ask Luck to do less.

 

Just because we may ask him to throw fewer passes,  doesn't mean we're asking him to do less.

 

Why?      Because we're asking him to complete a much higher percentage of passes.     Higher than he's ever done before.      Frankly,  much higher than he's done in most of his first 4 years.

 

If the Colts are going to ask Luck to throw 40 times a game,  then I think we're in for a disappointing season.

 

One last thought:     Do you know how many passes Luck attempted in his one game with Chudzinski last year?    The game vs. Denver?  

 

That number is 32.

 

We can win without Luck throwing 40 times a game.

 

[BleedBlu8792]

15 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

For your consideration:

 

I'm of the view that we're going to see the best Andrew Luck we've seen so far.     I'm modestly hopeful that year 5 is a breakout year for him.     I think he's capable of a lot more and I believe we'll see it this year.      Call it the Chudzinkski/Philbin/Schottemheimer factor.

 

BUT....

 

I'd like to show you --- in part --- why I don't think we've seen the best of Luck in his first four years.     With the help of numbers I'm going to show you what we've asked Luck to do and compare that with what Seattle asked Wilson to do,  Washington asked RG3 to do and with what GB asked Rodgers to do in his first four years of full time playing (08-11)

 

So....   I'll try to keep this simple.....      Years going Left to Right....    Names going top to bottom.     I'm giving you pass attempts and games played then pass attempts PER GAME.       That's the key...   pass attempts per game.      The numbers will jump out at you.

 

 

 

                                        2012                            2013                     2014                        2015

 

Luck                               627/16                         570/16                  616/16                      293/7   

                                          39 per game               35.6                      38.5                         41.9 

 

Wilson                            393/16                         407/16                  457/16                     483/16

                                         24.5 per game             25.4                      28.5                          30

 

RG3                                393/15                         456/13                  214/9-7                      0/0

                                          26 per game                 35                         30                            0

 

                                       (2008)                          (2009)                  (2010)                      (2011)

Rodgers                         536/15                         541/16                 475/15                     502/15

                                         35.7 per game              33.8                     31.7                         34.5

 

 

NOTE:      Look at how many more passes Luck has been asked to throw per game in each of his first 4 years.   The other three QB's all had better o-lines,  better running games, and better defenses to support their quarterback.     Bottom line: Luck has been asked to do much more with much less.    If you want to know why --- at least, in part --- Luck has not been the quarterback you hoped he would be,  I believe these numbers tell a large part of the story.

 

I believe the new coach are going to try and have Luck throw closer to 36 passes a game.     But I think we're finally going to see Luck complete closer to 63 or 64 percent where we have always expected him to.     I'm hopeful that the days of him completing below 60 percent are over.    His numbers have to be better if this offense is to finally get to the next level.      I think this new coaching staff can bring it out of him.

 

 

 

Since when has the Seahawk OL been good since Wilson has been there?

 

[21isSuperman]

27 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

I don't think I"m suggesting the Colts will ask Luck to do less.

 

Just because we may ask him to throw fewer passes,  doesn't mean we're asking him to do less.

 

Why?      Because we're asking him to complete a much higher percentage of passes.     Higher than he's ever done before.      Frankly,  much higher than he's done in most of his first 4 years.

 

If the Colts are going to ask Luck to throw 40 times a game,  then I think we're in for a disappointing season.

 

One last thought:     Do you know how many passes Luck attempted in his one game with Chudzinski last year?    The game vs. Denver?  

 

That number is 32.

 

We can win without Luck throwing 40 times a game.

 

I'm confused.  Are you saying the staff will ask Luck to throw fewer passes, or complete a higher percentage?  The data you provided in the first post is about pass attempts per game, not completion percentage.  But in this post, you're saying it's about completion percentage. 

[NewColtsFan]

19 minutes ago, 21isSuperman said:

I'm confused.  Are you saying the staff will ask Luck to throw fewer passes, or complete a higher percentage?  The data you provided in the first post is about pass attempts per game, not completion percentage.  But in this post, you're saying it's about completion percentage. 

 

In the two paragraphs after the statistical breakdown,  I spoke of Luck completing a much higher percentage of passes.

 

So, the answer to your question is.......    both.         I think we're going to ask him to throw roughly 35-36 passes a game.     Down from his 42 a game last year.        And I think we're going to see Luck complete a higher percentage of those passes.   

 

So, I addressed both issues in the first post,  and I'm addressing both issues in this post.

 

Fewer pass attempts;   higher completion percentage.

 

Hope this is more clear........

[NewColtsFan]

27 minutes ago, BleedBlu8792 said:

 

Since when has the Seahawk OL been good since Wilson has been there?

 

 

However you want to grade it,  it's always been a better o-line than what Luck had.

 

It's been a good enough line to block well for every running back they've had.     And while Wilson scrambles around like Tarkenton,   I'm not aware that Wilson has been beaten hit with the same frequency that Luck has been in their first four years.     

 

 

[Synthetic]

 

You guys are in for a rude awakening this year when Luck don't live up to the ridiculous expectations put around him. Irsay put a bullseye on this kid's back the minute he made him the highest paid player in the league. I'll be surprised if he survives for 16 whole games this season. 

[Jason_]

7 minutes ago, Bogie said:

 

You guys are in for a rude awakening this year when Luck don't live up to the ridiculous expectations put around him. Irsay put a bullseye on this kid's back the minute he made him the highest paid player in the league. I'll be surprised if he survives for 16 whole games this season. 

 

Lol. Have you been living under a rock? The "ridiculous expectations" absolutely did NOT start with the signing of that contract. They started sometime back in 2010ish when the first pundit claimed he was the greatest prospect since elway/manning. And those expectations have only continued to mount since then. 

[Jason_]

1 hour ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

We can win without Luck throwing 40 times a game.

 

 

The unfortunate thing is, I think a lot of these people know that...they just dont WANT us to win without Luck throwing 40+ times per game, but instead of just admitting that, they force themselves to believe that we can't. 

 

 

[2006Coltsbestever]

26 minutes ago, Bogie said:

 

You guys are in for a rude awakening this year when Luck don't live up to the ridiculous expectations put around him. Irsay put a bullseye on this kid's back the minute he made him the highest paid player in the league. I'll be surprised if he survives for 16 whole games this season. 

Should it be a surprise if we go 7-9 or 6-10 or Luck gets injured? I mean I have seen at least 20 predictions or so from people on ESPN and the NFL Network and only 2 people have us winning the AFC South. Max Kellerman and Kurt Warner. The NFL Network has us ranked 24th out of 32 teams, So if anything if the Colts finish above .500 it would be a miraculous accomplishment just going by what the Football experts say. Hey we aren't expected to do anything at all this season according to most so at this point I have changed my mood and will just sit back and watch without stressing.

[throwing BBZ]

Lucky got a ton of extra throws his first year and beyond, at least partly because he played somewhat poorly in the 1st half of games.
 He WASN`T so much asked to do more, he was Forced to throw more.
  9 come from behind wins in year one and getting to throw half the game playing against some terrible D`s that were playing soft to boot. Of course he got more attempts.
His #s totals and W% is much more related to weak competition than ANYTHING.  Homer on!
 Chuds O is really Lucky`s 1st chance to run a high caliber diversified NFL offense. He can do it, if he isn`t on his back constantly. lol with that

[csmopar]

49 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Should it be a surprise if we go 7-9 or 6-10 or Luck gets injured? I mean I have seen at least 20 predictions or so from people on ESPN and the NFL Network and only 2 people have us winning the AFC South. Max Kellerman and Kurt Warner. The NFL Network has us ranked 24th out of 32 teams, So if anything if the Colts finish above .500 it would be a miraculous accomplishment just going by what the Football experts say. Hey we aren't expected to do anything at all this season according to most so at this point I have changed my mood and will just sit back and watch without stressing.

Those same experts had us winning the superbowl last year....

[Malakai432]

Luck is not only up there with the younger studs but some of the greatest of all time on a statistical level via their first 4x years INCLUDING last year in which he was injured.  The Patriots have hindered this team also from possibly achieving further potential, yes the $(&/@@:& Patriots, twice in the playoffs.  

 

Luck has been great, the team not so much at all and I do put a lot of blame on Grigson and a very lackluster coaching staff to say the least lol.  That being said there are many factors Luck could improve upon.  The team though, as a whole will have to get much better to achieve their ultimate goal.  

 

 

[jvan1973]

3 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

I don't think I"m suggesting the Colts will ask Luck to do less.

 

Just because we may ask him to throw fewer passes,  doesn't mean we're asking him to do less.

 

Why?      Because we're asking him to complete a much higher percentage of passes.     Higher than he's ever done before.      Frankly,  much higher than he's done in most of his first 4 years.

 

If the Colts are going to ask Luck to throw 40 times a game,  then I think we're in for a disappointing season.

 

One last thought:     Do you know how many passes Luck attempted in his one game with Chudzinski last year?    The game vs. Denver?  

 

That number is 32.

 

We can win without Luck throwing 40 times a game.

 

He isn't going to throw less

[jvan1973]

1 hour ago, throwing BBZ said:

Lucky got a ton of extra throws his first year and beyond, at least partly because he played somewhat poorly in the 1st half of games.
 He WASN`T so much asked to do more, he was Forced to throw more.
  9 come from behind wins in year one and getting to throw half the game playing against some terrible D`s that were playing soft to boot. Of course he got more attempts.
His #s totals and W% is much more related to weak competition than ANYTHING.  Homer on!
 Chuds O is really Lucky`s 1st chance to run a high caliber diversified NFL offense. He can do it, if he isn`t on his back constantly. lol with that

Why are you here again?

[BleedBlu8792]

2 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

However you want to grade it,  it's always been a better o-line than what Luck had.

 

It's been a good enough line to block well for every running back they've had.     And while Wilson scrambles around like Tarkenton,   I'm not aware that Wilson has been beaten hit with the same frequency that Luck has been in their first four years.     

 

 

 

I get the Luck blinders but come on. That Seattle OL has been garbage. Marshawn Lynch lead the league the last 3 or 4 years in yards after contact. Wilson and Lynch completely masked how bad that OL was, not to mention the 49 more times Wilson has been sacked compared to Luck. Playing with an inept OL like Luck has, hasn't slowed Wilson down especially when it comes to being efficient and not turning the ball over.

[deedub75]

3 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

In the two paragraphs after the statistical breakdown,  I spoke of Luck completing a much higher percentage of passes.

 

So, the answer to your question is.......    both.         I think we're going to ask him to throw roughly 35-36 passes a game.     Down from his 42 a game last year.        And I think we're going to see Luck complete a higher percentage of those passes.   

 

So, I addressed both issues in the first post,  and I'm addressing both issues in this post.

 

Fewer pass attempts;   higher completion percentage.

 

Hope this is more clear........

 

They can ask Luck to throw fewer passes until they are blue in the face but I don't see it happening.  The reason why Luck has thrown so many passes in the past is because the Colts would get behind early and abandon a run game that wasn't really working anyway.  Oftentimes, it was Luck's turnovers that put them behind and then he had to try to throw his way out of it.  

[SilentHill]

3 hours ago, Bogie said:

 

You guys are in for a rude awakening this year when Luck don't live up to the ridiculous expectations put around him. Irsay put a bullseye on this kid's back the minute he made him the highest paid player in the league. I'll be surprised if he survives for 16 whole games this season. 

 

I'd love to hear the reasons why Luck isn't going to live up to expectations.

[Gavin]

How much he throws depends on 5 things

 

1.How often we are down in games and have to come from behind. Luck has contributed heavily to being behind but its more than just him. Various blame to go around

 

2.Chuds willingness to keep to the run game when we can regardless of the likely fact that we wont have much of a run game. Short efficient passing can help

 

3.How well or poorly the defense plays after the offense stalls

 

4.Willingness to reign Luck in when needed

 

5.Lucks willingness to take what the defense gives and complete easy passes to the open receiver

 

All it takes is 1 of those 4 things to get out of line. If that happens we are screwed

 

[SilentHill]

43 minutes ago, BleedBlu8792 said:

 

I get the Luck blinders but come on. That Seattle OL has been garbage. Marshawn Lynch lead the league the last 3 or 4 years in yards after contact. Wilson and Lynch completely masked how bad that OL was, not to mention the 49 more times Wilson has been sacked compared to Luck. Playing with an inept OL like Luck has, hasn't slowed Wilson down especially when it comes to being efficient and not turning the ball over.

 

Yea, that Seattle defense had nothing to do with it, Why don't you go look and see how many games Seattle won in the Wilson era when they gave up 24+ points?  Don't worry I'll do it for you, the Seahawks went 3-11 when the opponent scored 24 or more points. Wanna guess how the Colts did over the same time period? 13-19 and 3 of those games were without Luck, If you don't count the games Luck missed due to injury it's 12-17, we've given up 24 or more points *32* times in the past 4 seasons, on average we give up more than 24 points 8 games per season, WOW! Seattle? 14 times, for an average of 3.5 games per season. Wilson is touted for being efficient and not turning the ball over, but that is pretty easy when your defense is winning you games, Luck had to go out and make the wins happens on his own shoulders, and with that comes errors and mistakes, forcing balls, etc.

 

I don't wanna hear how other QB's had it harder than Luck, it's the facts only here. Luck has had the hardest 4 year run and overcame it all, lead this team to the playoffs 3 times, and 3 playoff victory's. I'd take Luck all day every day over Wilson and it's not even close.

[jradMT]

2 minutes ago, SilentHill said:

 

I'd love to hear the reasons why Luck isn't going to live up to expectations.

  

I think there a few things that could possibly keep him from living up to expectations, they somewhat tie in together.  The first is health, he has taken a pounding year in and year out.  If he starts to consistently miss games or develops a chronic condition (shoulder, neck) it could limit him from reaching his potential.   The 2nd things is he has a few bad habits that he needs to shake,  the first bad habit ties into the injuries.  He holds the ball too long plain and simple, he needs to choose to throw the ball away more times after he goes through his projections, this is tough because he can really do damage when the play breaks down so its hard especially given his ability and confidence for him to do this.  However he just cannot continue to get hit this much year in year out, nobody can take that much punishment without either missing games or having injuries adversely affect their ability.   The 2nd bad habit are the INT's, he has to cut down on them, especially when he throws them in bunches, he seemed to have a handle on them in 13' and 14', but last year it was a concern again.  He has to keep his int% down below 2 consistently year in year out.  Luck is just such a competitor though and its hard to tell a guy to dial it back some and not take as many chances, because a lot of it is what makes him so good.   But from what I see if he doesn't get better in these areas, he won't reach his potential of being the best QB in the league.

[Happy2BeHere]

6 hours ago, 21isSuperman said:

I echo what @dgambill said.  Given the general lack of reliability at RB and on the defense, I think Luck will have to continue to shoulder the load.  In my opinion, that falls on Grigson for not being able to assemble a solid roster after several years and plenty of cap space.  You can't blame him for injuries and things of that nature, but the bottom line is he hasn't done a good job assembling a complete team.  So our best chance to win is to try and have our QB overcome the many holes in the roster.  In my opinion, that's not a reliable formula for winning championships.

I would also echo echo echo ec ho.... this.

[NewColtsFan]

3 hours ago, BleedBlu8792 said:

 

I get the Luck blinders but come on. That Seattle OL has been garbage. Marshawn Lynch lead the league the last 3 or 4 years in yards after contact. Wilson and Lynch completely masked how bad that OL was, not to mention the 49 more times Wilson has been sacked compared to Luck. Playing with an inept OL like Luck has, hasn't slowed Wilson down especially when it comes to being efficient and not turning the ball over.

 

Luck blinders?

 

I've been very hard on Luck.       Sorry you haven't noticed.

 

And if you want to equate the Seattle o-line with the Indy o-line then I think you're the one who's not seeing things clearly.

 

[NewColtsFan]

3 hours ago, deedub75 said:

 

They can ask Luck to throw fewer passes until they are blue in the face but I don't see it happening.  The reason why Luck has thrown so many passes in the past is because the Colts would get behind early and abandon a run game that wasn't really working anyway.  Oftentimes, it was Luck's turnovers that put them behind and then he had to try to throw his way out of it.  

 

I hope we try a different formula.     Otherwise,  I don't think we'll be happy with the results.

 

[bluephantom87]

8 hours ago, Malakai432 said:

Luck is not only up there with the younger studs but some of the greatest of all time on a statistical level via their first 4x years INCLUDING last year in which he was injured.  The Patriots have hindered this team also from possibly achieving further potential, yes the $(&/@@:& Patriots, twice in the playoffs.  

 

Luck has been great, the team not so much at all and I do put a lot of blame on Grigson and a very lackluster coaching staff to say the least lol.  That being said there are many factors Luck could improve upon.  The team though, as a whole will have to get much better to achieve their ultimate goal.  

 

 

I agree that Luck is the best of the young qbs and has had to do MORE with less around him to make the Colts a contender. Bad o-line (check), no run game (check), a below avg defense (check) coupled with a subpar coaching staff speaks volumes of Andrew's talent and intangibles to shoulder an entire franchise. Let's not forget coming into the league Luck took over a 2-14 team and had to replace one of the greatest qbs in NFL HISTORY!! Luck also has had to learn 3 different systems (including playbook) from 3 different OCs in his first 4 yrs. What I want to see from Luck going forward is to reduce the turnovers. (ints and fumbles)

 

I think as NewColtsFan has stated that Luck's passing % will go up as well as his efficiency under Chud due to the short quick passing game but I HOPE the playcalling is way more diverse! A lot of that stagnant, slow start, LOW output point total to START games come from that OVERALL gameplan to establish the run early. My problem is FORCING the run up the middle on 1st and 2nd downs getting stuffed LEADING to 3rd and long. So tired of seeing opposing defenses stack the box against the Colts on 1st and 2nd downs at the BEGINNING of games because they KNOW what's coming ESPECIALLY with the Colts lining up in the POWER (lol) formation to start off. Then we all know what happens next... 3rd and long jailbreak BLITZES on Luck which leads to blindside fumbles, sacks or ints from pressing. REPEAT the next few series leading to more 3 and outs ALL while the defense CAN'T make stops or get off the field leading to the Colts falling behind big on the scoreboard.

 

Start 2nd half one more time with the SAME playcalling garnishing the same results. Ok down big can't run NOW let Luck pull it out by going hurry up and striking big with the passing game. I have faith in Chud as oc IF allowed by Chuck to call the game as he sees fit. Speaking of Chuck I think he needs to focus on that defense which is supposed to be HIS specialty....

[MR. Blueblood]

12 hours ago, throwing BBZ said:

Lucky got a ton of extra throws his first year and beyond, at least partly because he played somewhat poorly in the 1st half of games.
 He WASN`T so much asked to do more, he was Forced to throw more.
  9 come from behind wins in year one and getting to throw half the game playing against some terrible D`s that were playing soft to boot. Of course he got more attempts.
His #s totals and W% is much more related to weak competition than ANYTHING.  Homer on!
 Chuds O is really Lucky`s 1st chance to run a high caliber diversified NFL offense. He can do it, if he isn`t on his back constantly. lol with that

Life at your house must be sunshine and rainbows all day long, how fortunate for you and your family.  I know I always feel so much happier after reading your posts.  I bet you could even snap Eeyore out of his funk.

[21isSuperman]

17 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

In the two paragraphs after the statistical breakdown,  I spoke of Luck completing a much higher percentage of passes.

 

So, the answer to your question is.......    both.         I think we're going to ask him to throw roughly 35-36 passes a game.     Down from his 42 a game last year.        And I think we're going to see Luck complete a higher percentage of those passes.   

 

So, I addressed both issues in the first post,  and I'm addressing both issues in this post.

 

Fewer pass attempts;   higher completion percentage.

 

Hope this is more clear........

I wouldn't bank on the first one.  Higher percentage, sure.  I think that's a very real possibility.  But without a strong running game and without a solid defense, I expect Luck will need to score a lot of points to keep us in games.  I don't think we have a complete enough team to have Luck throw the ball less.  Plus, he got that huge contract.  When you give someone a huge contract, you expect them to make plays for you.  If anything, I see him being asked to do more, not less

[Clem-Dog]

16 hours ago, BleedBlu8792 said:

 

I get the Luck blinders but come on. That Seattle OL has been garbage. Marshawn Lynch lead the league the last 3 or 4 years in yards after contact. Wilson and Lynch completely masked how bad that OL was, not to mention the 49 more times Wilson has been sacked compared to Luck. Playing with an inept OL like Luck has, hasn't slowed Wilson down especially when it comes to being efficient and not turning the ball over.

 

You can't correlate YCo with poor line play as the two factors are not related. 

 

When RW went to Seattle his line was decidedly better than Luck's.  Not to mention his defense was so dominant that 150 passing yds on 20 attempts out of RW was all that was needed.  

 

And doesn't it really speak to RW's inferiority as he has attempted far fewer passes yet has been sacked 49 more times.  Certainly Luck puts a lot of the pressure on himself by holding the ball too long.  But can't the same be said of RW.  He holds the ball longer than any other QB just to create some sloppily executed sandlot play.  Both deserve to get whacked for not releasing the ball, but at least Luck still runs a coherent offense.

 

As far as your last sentence.  You perfectly described a game manager, which Luck is not.  Luck is a game-changer.

 

[il vecchio]

The Colts trio of receivers is one of the best in the league.  The running game leaves a lot to be desired.

 

I hope and expect that Luck will pass a lot this season.  

 

Personally, I'd like to see plenty of short passes.