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Buffalo Bills Weaknesses


Smonroe

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I'm tired of reading how bad our O line is or "this is seriously our defense?" threads.

 

How about we dissect the Bills weaknesses (and strengths, if you prefer)?  This is what game planning is all about.

 

I'll start - I don't think their DBs are that great.  If our O line gives Andrew any time to throw, he should be able to pick them apart.  We have the combination of quick receivers who can stretch it as well as big body possession guys. 

 

Also - I'm not sure who's going to start at RB for them?  Has McCoy even played yet?  And their O line isn't stellar, they have some question marks.  Richie I hasn't played in a real game in how long?

 

Finally, the obvious question - how will we gameplan their QB?  If we keep him contained, does he have the arm and football IQ to look for the open man?

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We don't know much about their quarterback, so how can we work around him? Might have to improvise throughout the game. It will be interesting to see how Taylor does.

 

I'm not aure about Luck picking apart Buffalo's defense. He might, but Buffalo is under Rex Ryan, and the Colts have had some problems with Ryan's defenses in the past. The Bills are a whole new team this season. The Colts can pull out a win, but it won't be easy.

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Supposedly Taylor is a smart guy, or so says Rick Venturi.  The knock is he is not a true pocket QB, so I think that is the key.  The Colts NEED to keep him pinched inside the pocket.  If he gets outside he can create plays with his legs.  This will be the key to success for the Colts D IMHO.

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We don't know much about their quarterback, so how can we work around him? Might have to improvise throughout the game. It will be interesting to see how Taylor does.

 

I'm not aure about Luck picking apart Buffalo's defense. He might, but Buffalo is under Rex Ryan, and the Colts have had some problems with Ryan's defenses in the past. The Bills are a whole new team this season. The Colts can pull out a win, but it won't be easy.

 

True, but this is true of past Colts coaching staff....

 

The last time we played the Jets was in Lucks rookie season (2012), we had a new HC in Chuck Pagano who wasnt even with the team at the time because he was battling Leukemia, and a different OC in Arians who was acting HC as well at the time....

Since then Chuck has obviously returned and BA is now in Arizona. Pep Hamilton has not played against a Rex Ryan defense yet so how can we possibly know if our offense will struggle with them? For all we know Pep has Ryan's number...

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The secondary is exploitable. He doesn't have Revis or Cromartie anymore and DBs aren't his specialty. Before he left, he left the Jets secondary in a mess.

He'll come at us with a million different blitzes and then try and pound the rock with McCoy. But the middle of the field is also exploitable. No Kiko Alonso there so the TEs should have a field day.

This game will be won or lost by our offensive line.

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Their offense isn't great, so there is that.

 

They have a top 5 defense, and we have arguably the #1 offense, so let's see how that defense can hold up, I don't think they are going to know what hit them, going off of last years offense is a joke, it was stop TY stop the Colts, this year? no way.

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The secondary is exploitable. He doesn't have Revis or Cromartie anymore and DBs aren't his specialty. Before he left, he left the Jets secondary in a mess.

He'll come at us with a million different blitzes and then try and pound the rock with McCoy. But the middle of the field is also exploitable. No Kiko Alonso there so the TEs should have a field day.

This game will be won or lost by our offensive line.

 

No doubt, the strength of their D is their front 7.  In spite of what people want to believe, the O line has played pretty well at the end of last year and in the preseason.  No one is going to say they're great, but they may be just good enough when it comes to pass protection. 

 

I'm still not sure we're going to be able to run the ball for big gains, but do we need that?  A four yard run will do.

 

It's going to be a tough, close game.  I still think we can exploit more weaknesses than they can.

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I'm tired of reading how bad our O line is or "this is seriously our defense?" threads.

 

How about we dissect the Bills weaknesses (and strengths, if you prefer)?  This is what game planning is all about.

 

I'll start - I don't think their DBs are that great.  If our O line gives Andrew any time to throw, he should be able to pick them apart.  We have the combination of quick receivers who can stretch it as well as big body possession guys. 

 

Also - I'm not sure who's going to start at RB for them?  Has McCoy even played yet?  And their O line isn't stellar, they have some question marks.  Richie I hasn't played in a real game in how long?

 

Finally, the obvious question - how will we gameplan their QB?  If we keep him contained, does he have the arm and football IQ to look for the open man?

 

Bills fan here.  Also have always liked the Colts, Peyton was one of my favorite players ever and Luck is hard not to root for.  I'll root for the Colts every game this year, but ONE.

 

Here's my take on the strengths and weaknesses:

 

DBs- Stephon Gilmore is working his way into the upper echelon of CBs, he had a fantastic second half of the year and will play the "Revis role" in Ryan's defense.

Aaron Williams is a solid safety who has a nose for the ball and can lay the lumber in the run game.  Drafted as a CB out of Texas, he struggled, but has been solid at the safety position.

Corey Graham is also a converted CB who brings that veteran presence and should be a good compliment to Williams.

Ronald Darby scares the hell out of me against the Colts.  He is filling in for McKelvin who had surgery in the offseason and won't return until week 8. He has struggled mightily in the preseason and will get eaten alive by Luck.  I just hope the damage is somewhat minimized by the rest of the Bills D.

Nikell Robey is a good nickel corner and can run with the best of them.  He struggled at times last year, but excelled in Pettine's D his first year (which is almost indentical to Ryan's D).

LBs- Kiko or not, this LB core is on the up-and-up.  Preston Brown is a 2nd year player who filled it nicely for Kiko last year, which might by why Ryan let him go in the trade with Philly.  Bradham is good vs. the run and has gotten better vs. the pass. He will be getting a nice contract this offseason.  Manny Lawson can set the edge but struggles if he is needed in coverage.

DLine- Everyone knows where the strength is.  Dareus will miss this game, but I can tell you that Corbin Bryant is no slouch. 

 

Offensively, QB is obviously the biggest issue.  Taylor showed the ability to make quick decisions from the pocket and distribute the ball to playmakers in the preseason.  How that translates to the regular season has yet to be seen.  If McCoy is hobbled, the back-up RBs will be able to handle the load.  Karlos Williams, Bryce Brown, and Bobbie Dixon are solid.  Bryce has the most versatile skill set, but his ball handling is poor.  He almost single handedly cost the Bills the playoffs in a game vs. Kansas City last year by fumbling out the back of the endzone on a TD run during a 80 yard drive after half time.  Would have been 20-3. Argh, alright moving on.  WRs are really good if Taylor can get them the ball (Watkins, Woods, and Harvin).  Charles Clay will also be the x-factor, again, if Taylor can get him the ball.

 

The entire year for the Bills rests on the QB (as usual).  If they can go 9-7 with no running game and Orton as their freaking QB, this year HAS to go better....I hope.

 

Weather is looking like mid 70s with possibility of rain and wind, which could be an equalizer, who knows.  I just hope it's a good game.  Colts should be deep in the playoffs this year, but hoping Buffalo takes this first game at home. 

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No doubt, the strength of their D is their front 7.  In spite of what people want to believe, the O line has played pretty well at the end of last year and in the preseason.  No one is going to say they're great, but they may be just good enough when it comes to pass protection. 

 

I'm still not sure we're going to be able to run the ball for big gains, but do we need that?  A four yard run will do.

 

It's going to be a tough, close game.  I still think we can exploit more weaknesses than they can.

I would agree with you about the OL playing well at the end of last season. Problem is, it's a different group of guys playing those spots. Mewhort moved over to RT, Louis moved to LG and Herremens is in at RG. I think we'll run the ball effectively, better than the last few  years.

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We don't know much about their quarterback, so how can we work around him? Might have to improvise throughout the game. It will be interesting to see how Taylor does.

 

I'm not aure about Luck picking apart Buffalo's defense. He might, but Buffalo is under Rex Ryan, and the Colts have had some problems with Ryan's defenses in the past. The Bills are a whole new team this season. The Colts can pull out a win, but it won't be easy.

Rex has quality CB's when we faced them...aka. Revis.  Not this year.

 

And without Dareus, Bills are not as formidable.  We just have to keep an extra body to help protect, whether it's a RB, or a TE, or even another RT........hint hint...-Pats do it...Good would be great as a 6th lineman.-

 

With our speed at WR..we can quick out pass to TY or Dorsett a few times, so they stay in base formations rather than 8 man box it.

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OK, I like reading other boards to make me feel better in what I assume about other teams and their weaknesses.  So, I will be gracious and give you the entire Buffalo story, so you all can stop wondering!

 

The Bills roster is loaded.  Period.  Except for one thing.  We don't have a quarterback.  Outside of QB, I don't think 95% of Bills fans would trade our roster for any other roster in the NFL.....hands down.  Except that, I think we would trade our entire roster for a franchise quarterback and then just start over.  Not sure if that makes sense, but it does to a Bills fan.  Bottom line is that Bills are one of the most talented football teams, if not the most talented, outside of the QB position, which we all know is the great equalizer.  If Andrew Luck was the Bills QB, the Bills would be landslide favorites to win the AFC.......easily.

 

So, that's where the Bills are right now.  Now to my primer for you guys.

 

Our Weaknesses.  Quarterback.  We all know this.  Tyrod Taylor looked almost perfect in preseason, but we all know it's preseason.  So, it pretty much means nothing.  Here's what we do know.  He'll be the best athlete on the field Sunday.  He's a tireless worker, and a great person.  Translation, he's not RG3.  He has a great football mind.  He was loved by the Ravens, just never got a chance.  They tried to bring him back.  Two former Ravens coaches also tried to bring him in as their quarterback this offseason.  That speaks for something.  He chose Buffalo because that was his best chance to play.  Rex actually tried to trade for him when with the Jets.  The former Ravens teammates love him, the Virginia Tech community loved him, and it's fun to root for him.  His knock was that he is inaccurate as a passer.  None of that showed in the preseason.  He was deadly accurate (Again, it's preseason, who cares).  He's short.  He's inexperienced.  Nobody has any idea how he'll do when in live games, so he's the wildcard in this game.  I can say this.  If he plays like he played in the preseason (again, I get it, fat chance), the Bills will have no problem beating you guys at home.  None of us expect that though.

 

The rest of the Bills offense is pretty good.  McCoy is the runner.  And there is a great rookie named Karlos Williams behind him.  Both are more than capable runners.  Even the third stringer Bryce Brown is also talented. The wide receiver group is pretty good too.  Watkins is the big play guy.  Woods is the great hands guy.  Harvin is Harvin.  He will single handedly win some games by himself and will disappear other games.  Although, he's the #3 slot guy.  #4 is Chris Hogan, who may have the surest hands on the team.  And #5 is Marquis Goodwin, who may be the fastest guy in the NFL.  He qualified for the Olympics this past summer.  Charles Clay is the big, athletic Tight End free agent acquired from Miami, and is a pretty good player as well.  The offensive line is slightly above average.  But with any kind of quarterback play, they will be fine.  Not great, but not bad.  Don't really worry about them too much.  A decent QB will elevate them a bit as well.

 

Second, the Bills defense is nasty.  Period.  They have a nasty front four, although you guys catch a huge break because Marcell Dareus is suspended for game one.  Of course he is, right?  His last name isn't Tom Brady!  That's actually significant, although the Bills depth is deep on the defensive line as well.  The linebackers are very good, deep, and athletic as well.  Someone mentioned Kiko Alonso earlier in the thread.  He's irrelevant, because he didn't play a snap last year, so his not being here doesn't change the defense at all from last year.  The safeties are terrific as well.  Corey Graham is smart, and Aaron Williams is a stud.  Period.  No weaknesses there.  Now, here is the weak link.  Corners.  Stephon Gilmore on one side is solid.  Not great, but solid.  Our other corner is out, so Luck may get to pick on a rookie.  A rookie in Ronald Darby who looks awful.  However, he looks awful, because Rex made him cover man in the preseason with no help to learn in a hurry.  My guess is that Gilmore may actually play Andre Johnson, because he already locked him down last season, and Darby and a safety may play T.Y.  That's actually what I would do.  Double TY, and play straight on AJ.  The Bills can pressure the QB with or without blitzing.  They also shut down the best QB's in the league last year.  Pretty incredible actually.  Look at last year's stats in games in the last quarter of the season.......and the defense is exactly the same this year.....

 

Aaron Rodgers - 17/42, 185, 0TDs, 2 INTs, 34.3 rating

Peyton Manning - 14/20, 173 yards, 0TDs, 2 INTs, 56.9 rating

Tom Brady - 8/16, 80 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INT's, 64.6 rating

 

They won't be timid of Luck, but you also can't completely shut down a franchise quarterback.  I understand that.

 

In summary, this Bills team is extremely talented.  They are playing at home in one of the best atmosphere's in the NFL.  It's a football city, with great new owners, and it's Rex's first game.  The stadium is difficult on opposing teams, and it will be jacked up for this one. This Bills team was 9-7 a year ago.  They lost not one starting player (They cut one in Fred Jackson), but upgraded to McCoy at RB, Clay at TE, Harvin at #3 WR, and everybody else moved a spot down on the depth chart (we lost one non-athletic TE starter in Scott Chandler and replaced him with Clay at TE).  So, this isn't a transitioning team.  It's a 9-7 team from a year ago, that didn't lose a starter, and signed some big time upgrades.  The loss of Fred Jackson (and his mate CJ Spiller) hurts leadership, but everything else is there for this team to be solid.  It will be a contender if Tyrod Taylor is any kind of quarterback whatsoever. 

 

Four types of predictions for this game. 

 

If Tyrod Taylor is a terrific player like he has been all preseason, the Bills will hammer the Colts, 35-17.

If Tyrod Taylor is a mediocre QB, the Bills win 24-20.

If Tyrod Taylor is a slightly below average QB, the Colts win 28-20.

If Tyrod Taylor stinks, the Colts win 35-14.

 

Nobody knows.  But hopefully for you Colts fans, you get a tiny bit of insight of just how dangerous the Bills are, if they get play at the quarterback position in any way, shape or form that is average or above. 

 

Good Luck on Sunday.  I'm a Bills season ticket holder, but I went to school at Ball State.  I saw my 90s Bills pound the Colts endlessly in the RCA and Hoosier Dome days.  You all have had the great fortune of back to back franchise QBs in the last 15 or so years......enjoy it.......because one day it will end. 

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Gilmore is decent in their secondary. I don't think he will be able to shutdown TY, but nevertheless, they should be picking on Ronald Darby all day.

He draws the short straw either way. You don't want to put him on T.Y. Because besides speed, he's a savy route runner. Put him on Johnson and it's a physical mismatch.

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The dline of theirs isn't scary..the Rams have a better dline and we didn't seem flustered with them (ik it was preseason but they didn't do squat) the issue on the matter is how luck handles the blitz and if we dial up quick passes instead of long developing passes idk how many time we got blitzed last year but the Oc wouldn't change the play calling to adjust

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OK, I like reading other boards to make me feel better in what I assume about other teams and their weaknesses.  So, I will be gracious and give you the entire Buffalo story, so you all can stop wondering!

 

...  Now, here is the weak link.  Corners.  Stephon Gilmore on one side is solid.  Not great, but solid.  Our other corner is out, so Luck may get to pick on a rookie.  A rookie in Ronald Darby who looks awful.  However, he looks awful, because Rex made him cover man in the preseason with no help to learn in a hurry.  My guess is that Gilmore may actually play Andre Johnson, because he already locked him down last season, and Darby and a safety may play T.Y.  That's actually what I would do.  Double TY, and play straight on AJ.  The Bills can pressure the QB with or without blitzing.  They also shut down the best QB's in the league last year.  Pretty incredible actually.  Look at last year's stats in games in the last quarter of the season.......and the defense is exactly the same this year.....

 

First of all, thanks for posting.  I also enjoy reading the other team's boards.  You can find more information on them than you'll ever get from any of the major networks or websites.  I didn't quote your entire post, I want to respond to one section in particular.

 

Like you said, no one knows how guys who haven't played an NFL snap will play in a real game.  But we Colts fans know what happens when you don't have good CBs and you face a franchise QB.  We had injuries in our Steeler's game last year, it was brutal.  That could be the deciding factor, if your QB pressure is checked even slightly.

 

Yes, I agree, you have a stacked squad and maybe a great prospect at QB.  However, in the past the Colts handled both Kap and Wilson.  Not saying they have it down pat, but you're also not saying Taylor is Russell Wilson, right?

 

I think it's going to be a great game, I won't be surprised by the outcome either way.  Feel free to post after the game!

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The dline of theirs isn't scary..the Rams have a better dline and we didn't seem flustered with them (ik it was preseason but they didn't do squat) the issue on the matter is how luck handles the blitz and if we dial up quick passes instead of long developing passes idk how many time we got blitzed last year but the Oc wouldn't change the play calling to adjust

The Rams do not have a better defensive line in any way, shape or form.  The Bills entire front four have been either All Pros, or Pro Bowlers.  The Rams guys have not, or are hurt a lot.  The entire Buffalo front four have had season where all four starters have had double digit sacks.  The one year they didn't, was because of injury.  The Rams defense is good, but it isn't Buffalo good.  At least not yet.  One weakness on the Bills...........corners, especially with Leodis McKelvin out.  The Bills didn't blitz last year, under Jim Schwartz, and still lead the league in sacks.  They did blitz, the year before, under Mike Pettine, and lead the league in sacks.  The Bills front four is indeed scary.

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Rex Ryan has not had a RB receive 300 carries since 2009 (either LT or Greene). The Eagles RBs ran a 3.28 YPC before contact last year. Bills ran a 1.97 (28th in the league). Bills had the 31st run blocking. I know they added Incognito but that's pretty telling. If anything Murray will have a better time rushing in Philly than in Dallas, and expect McCoy to come back to Earth more than he did last year.

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The dline of theirs isn't scary..the Rams have a better dline and we didn't seem flustered with them (ik it was preseason but they didn't do squat) the issue on the matter is how luck handles the blitz and if we dial up quick passes instead of long developing passes idk how many time we got blitzed last year but the Oc wouldn't change the play calling to adjust

Didnt do squat?....... Really?

 

Lance Louis was demolished by the Rams D line and Mewhort couldnt handle the right side either.... He needed a TE over there to help him out, effectively taking a player out of our offense... it wasn't even close to being not flustered by them.....

It's good that Marcell Dareus is suspended for this game but I still have doubts about the LG spot... I expect to see a lot of # 12 running around on Sunday.....

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He draws the short straw either way. You don't want to put him on T.Y. Because besides speed, he's a savy route runner. Put him on Johnson and it's a physical mismatch.

Yup.  They'll probably throw the coverage toward's Darby side.  I just don't see how they can consistently take those two guys out of the passing game all day long.  If our defense cna just limit their run game, it shouldn't really be close.

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We don't know much about their quarterback, so how can we work around him? Might have to improvise throughout the game. It will be interesting to see how Taylor does.

I'm not aure about Luck picking apart Buffalo's defense. He might, but Buffalo is under Rex Ryan, and the Colts have had some problems with Ryan's defenses in the past. The Bills are a whole new team this season. The Colts can pull out a win, but it won't be easy.

Rex doesn't have Revis this time

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Didnt do squat?....... Really?

Lance Louis was demolished by the Rams D line and Mewhort couldnt handle the right side either.... He needed a TE over there to help him out, effectively taking a player out of our offense... it wasn't even close to being not flustered by them.....

It's good that Marcell Dareus is suspended for this game but I still have doubts about the LG spot... I expect to see a lot of # 12 running around on Sunday.....

yet Andrew was not "running around" and pass protection did not give up a sack vs that line I recall the last actual time we played the Rams with them not having the addition of last years pick their line demolished us for sacks off both edges and the middle so frankly we did a good job I'm not speaking on running because it's stupid to forcefully run against that line unless we open them up with the pass
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Rex will blitz, chip with his DL a lot, and clog the middle forcing Luck to throw outside the numbers, and it will be up to our wide outs to win 1-on-1 battles on the outside to get open and for Luck to be accurate enough, in a nutshell on offense.

 

On defense, reverses to speedy wide outs, QB bootlegs for quick short passes and runs, and zone read/option read runs from QB or RB will be most of their offense, IMO.

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Until they prove they're legit they're the same old Bills to me.

I actually think this will be a cake walk.

Good D or not, we're definitely gonna score. They won't be able to keep scoring with us.

I remember this QB they have from last year. He's average on a great day.

Colts roll in this one.

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Didnt do squat?....... Really?

 

Lance Louis was demolished by the Rams D line and Mewhort couldnt handle the right side either.... He needed a TE over there to help him out, effectively taking a player out of our offense... it wasn't even close to being not flustered by them.....

It's good that Marcell Dareus is suspended for this game but I still have doubts about the LG spot... I expect to see a lot of # 12 running around on Sunday.....

 

Our O line held them in check on passing downs.  They didn't get close to Andrew.  It's pretty normal to keep a TE or H-back in for max protect.  It is taking him out of the play, but that's the idea, it's how you get your guys down field.

 

The O line was demolished in that series where we had our backs to the goal line.  I'm pretty sure we're not going to run those plays in a real game.  Could be the coaches wanted to see how the guys handle it (not well), just to learn something.

 

No matter how good the Bills D is (or anyone's D) I'm not really worried about our offense.

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Yup.  They'll probably throw the coverage toward's Darby side.  I just don't see how they can consistently take those two guys out of the passing game all day long.  If our defense cna just limit their run game, it shouldn't really be close.

 

They are claiming on the Bills board that Donnie Henderson the DB coach leaked info out in one way or the other while speaking suggesting they were going to put Darby on T.Y. and give him safety help, while placing Gilmore on Andre Johnson and I guess Nickell Roby on either Moncrief or Phillip Dorsett.  Robey is supposed to be good however he's only 5'8" and runs a 4.5 so I assume we'll be going after him if that happens.  I don't believe Gilmore could shut Andre down although he's pretty good. Supposedly this is their plan.

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I think Buffalo is going to struggle to move the ball if we contain the cutbacks on Mccoy and stay in our lanes when rushing Taylor. They are going to have some drives where they move the ball but I think we can keep them out of the endzone for the most part. I think we get off to a slow start but by the second half I expect us to put a couple balls in the endzone against some of their weaker corners. It isn't going to be an explosive scoring game I don't think....I think we still struggle to run much and I think we have to get our yardage in small chunks and this game won't show off our high flying offense but its just the type of game we need to teach and learn more about ourselves.

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I see their offense attacking us similar to how the Raiders did in the opener two years ago, especially if we're not disciplined on the edge. But I think our scrape/exchange is going to be where it needs to be; Freeman is good coming over the top, and if Moore is in the game, he'll be able to do it as well. I'm not really worried about their passing game, but if I were gameplanning against the Colts, I'd run screens with McCoy, I'd run bunch formations 3x1 and bring Watkins and Clay across the middle, and I'd try to run the ball off tackle and off guard. 

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They are claiming on the Bills board that Donnie Henderson the DB coach leaked info out in one way or the other while speaking suggesting they were going to put Darby on T.Y. and give him safety help, while placing Gilmore on Andre Johnson and I guess Nickell Roby on either Moncrief or Phillip Dorsett.  Robey is supposed to be good however he's only 5'8" and runs a 4.5 so I assume we'll be going after him if that happens.  I don't believe Gilmore could shut Andre down although he's pretty good. Supposedly this is their plan.

 

So who's going to cover Coby long or Allen over the middle?  Finding the weak link in their pass coverage isn't going to be that difficult.

 

Finding time for Andrew to get the ball out could be.

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I see their offense attacking us similar to how the Raiders did in the opener two years ago, especially if we're not disciplined on the edge. But I think our scrape/exchange is going to be where it needs to be; Freeman is good coming over the top, and if Moore is in the game, he'll be able to do it as well. I'm not really worried about their passing game, but if I were gameplanning against the Colts, I'd run screens with McCoy, I'd run bunch formations 3x1 and bring Watkins and Clay across the middle, and I'd try to run the ball off tackle and off guard. 

 

I was thinking the same thing, although from what I've read Taylor is a much better QB than Pryor.  Then again, I think our D is much better than it was two years ago.

 

I know Ryan said McCoy is 'good to go' but I want to see that to believe it.  Clay is a threat, I'm wondering if that will be Clayton's assignment?

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They are claiming on the Bills board that Donnie Henderson the DB coach leaked info out in one way or the other while speaking suggesting they were going to put Darby on T.Y. and give him safety help, while placing Gilmore on Andre Johnson and I guess Nickell Roby on either Moncrief or Phillip Dorsett.  Robey is supposed to be good however he's only 5'8" and runs a 4.5 so I assume we'll be going after him if that happens.  I don't believe Gilmore could shut Andre down although he's pretty good. Supposedly this is their plan.

It's what I would do if I were the Bills, I just don't think it will be enough.  I guess the big question is, do they think they can survive one on one coverage with Andre?  I guess that really depends on what AJ really has left on the tank, which I think we're all kinda curious to see.  

 

On an unrelated note, I wish that I could see AJ go up against Cortland Finnegan one last time, but as a Colt..  Sigh...

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