Predictions for MVP of the 2015 regular season

[Jules]

My first choice is Andrew Luck. I can't help it, he has new toys this year. I think he has a legit shot in this offense of getting it. This is the first offseason I have predicted him to get it. 

 

Anyone else?

 

Rodgers again might be a consideration.

 

Manning has set such high standards for himself in the past with his stats I am not sure he can do it again, but we'll see. 

 

I am forgetting many more though who may be in there.

 

 

 

[Bravo]

Would say it could be a defensive player but if JJ Watt couldn't win it after the performance he had all of last season I'm really not sure if a defensive player could win it.

Andrew Luck

Aaron Rodgers

Cam Newton (my surprise pick)

[12isthenew18]

Offense: A quarterback

Defense: Watt or Kuechly 

[COLTS449]

I'm saying it right now. Its going be Luck. He's going to come out here in his 4th season and really start to shine. I think by the end of the year he'll be looked at by several as the best QB in the league. Our O-Line should be able to protect him better, we'll actually have a running game, and he'll have so many options in the passing game he wont know what to do with them all lol.

[TKnight24]

OBJ

Just to feed the hype

Reality: Aaron Rodgers

[shakedownstreet]

pat mcafee!!

 

[MTC]

Aaron Rodgers will win.

[amfootball]

As long as Rodgers stays healthy, it is his to lose.

[BloodyChamp]

Rodgers, in spite of my opinions of the guy. That's not me warming up to him either. If there was ever a fraud who the voters loved...and this year it will be easier because they're sick of Brady and Manning might be finished.

I'd love to see a guy like Luck get it but not if it means that he starts sliding for 2 on 3rd and 5 and all that other boring stuff that the Making Vacation Plans winner does every year.

[Jules]

Could easily be Rodgers again but thats boring to me too. But, he might go on a run with the MVP like Manning once did.

[BloodyChamp]

Manning is the only MVP without an asterisk by his name to win a playoff game since...shoot...Rich Gannon?

[bestQBever]

Would say it could be a defensive player but if JJ Watt couldn't win it after the performance he had all of last season I'm really not sure if a defensive player could win it.

Andrew Luck

Aaron Rodgers

Cam Newton (my surprise pick)

no defensive player will win it. Watt had possibly the best season a DE could have last year and didn't get it.

[Lawrence Owen]

I see Luck and Rodgers having a tight race.  But also, with the Vikes possibly having a passing game next year..I just can't get my mind away from seeing Peterson having one of those ridiculous rushing years.  30ish or no...i bet he hits 2k yards, he is out next year to prove something... 

[Synthetic]

Luck for MVP, Rodgers SB MVP. 

[tvturner]

Luck MVP, Watt nonbias

[amfootball]

I also think Gronk has an outside chance for a non-QB player. Beckham too.

[danlhart87]

Rivers.

Chargers win West.

[Valpo2004]

MVP has an affinity to go to QB's who put up big numbers.  So it's likely a 2 way race between Rodgers and Luck with Rodgers have a pretty strong edge.  However an injury to Rodgers could give Luck the lead.

 

The only other possibility is if an RB puts up a 2000+ yard season.  I don't see any RB's that are really primed to do that.  I suppose maybe AP could now that he has an actual QB.  But he's getting up there and while he'll be strong I just don't see a repeat of a 2000 yard season.

 

I just don't see any other QB putting up the numbers that those two will be putting up.  Not many people would call you crazy if you said that both throw for 5000+ yards and over 40 TD's.  

 

Brees isn't going to do that, he lost his best receiver and the rest of his receivers are kinda meh.

Brady isn't going to do that because his receivers outside of Gronk are pretty meh.

Manning lost his TE and there are questions about his age and if he can still do it.

 

Only really Luck and Rodgers have both the talent themselves and the talent around them to put up such numbers.  

[BullsColtsFan1]

I think the race will be close between Peyton Luck and Rogers and I am going to say Peyton wins.  I know I might be crazy but that is my prediction!

[SteelCityColt]

MVP has an affinity to go to QB's who put up big numbers.  So it's likely a 2 way race between Rodgers and Luck with Rodgers have a pretty strong edge.  However an injury to Rodgers could give Luck the lead.

 

The only other possibility is if an RB puts up a 2000+ yard season.  I don't see any RB's that are really primed to do that.  I suppose maybe AP could now that he has an actual QB.  But he's getting up there and while he'll be strong I just don't see a repeat of a 2000 yard season.

 

I just don't see any other QB putting up the numbers that those two will be putting up.  Not many people would call you crazy if you said that both throw for 5000+ yards and over 40 TD's.  

 

Brees isn't going to do that, he lost his best receiver and the rest of his receivers are kinda meh.

Brady isn't going to do that because his receivers outside of Gronk are pretty meh.

Manning lost his TE and there are questions about his age and if he can still do it.

 

Only really Luck and Rodgers have both the talent themselves and the talent around them to put up such numbers.  

 

Seems like a pretty fair assessment to me.

 

Even if AP put up big numbers I can't see him getting the MVP after recent events, in fact I think that would rule him out of any of this years awards. The only RB I would have seen putting up big enough numbers to justify it outside of PA was maybe Bell and he's lost a quarter of his season. 

 

So outside of maybe a WR having a crazy crazy year, we're looking at QBs as you say. Only people you've not mentioned who might have a shot IMO might be Matt Ryan (if Julio Jones stays healthy), and maybe Big Ben if he could hold the form he showed in patches last season all the way through. I hasten to add these would be long long shots. 

 

Only way a defensive player wins it, is if they broke the sack record and even then I wouldn't be sure. The seasons JJ Watt has had and not won.... 

[horseshoeblue22]

With the talent around him, my money would be on Luck.

[Valpo2004]

Seems like a pretty fair assessment to me.

 

Even if AP put up big numbers I can't see him getting the MVP after recent events, in fact I think that would rule him out of any of this years awards. The only RB I would have seen putting up big enough numbers to justify it outside of PA was maybe Bell and he's lost a quarter of his season. 

 

So outside of maybe a WR having a crazy crazy year, we're looking at QBs as you say. Only people you've not mentioned who might have a shot IMO might be Matt Ryan (if Julio Jones stays healthy), and maybe Big Ben if he could hold the form he showed in patches last season all the way through. I hasten to add these would be long long shots. 

 

Only way a defensive player wins it, is if they broke the sack record and even then I wouldn't be sure. The seasons JJ Watt has had and not won.... 

 

You know that's a good point, I didn't think about it but even if AP puts up a monster season and breaks the rushing record, the league might not want to hand him the MVP award after the whole child abuse thing.  I didn't even consider that aspect of it.

 

Since Odell Beckham Jr. had a big year even after missing several games I suppose if he has some sort of monster year he would be a candidate.  

 

And you are right with the defensive seasons JJ Watt has had, I'm just not convinced that that there is anything you can do on the defensive side of the ball and win the MVP.  

[Superman]

And you are right with the defensive seasons JJ Watt has had, I'm just not convinced that that there is anything you can do on the defensive side of the ball and win the MVP.  

 

If the Texans had made the playoffs last year, he probably would have received a lot more votes. He got 13 last year.

[SilentHill]

It would be an upset if it wasn't Luck with all these new offensive weapons.

[Valpo2004]

If the Texans had made the playoffs last year, he probably would have received a lot more votes. He got 13 last year.

 

I'm sort of in the camp that you shouldn't judge the team's best player too much by the team's record or championships.  There is 21 other guys out there who have to step up.

 

I honestly think the Texans could go 19-0 and win the SB and they wouldn't give Watt the MVP for the season.  (He could win the SB MVP, but not the season MVP.)

 

Honestly I almost think they should just do away with the MVP award.  It's like a QB only award that might occasionally go to an RB or WR if they happen to have an amazing season.  But no offensive linemen and no defensive players.  Maybe you can find an exception but that's the general rule.  And I get the argument that QB's affect the game more so they would naturally be the "most valuable players" but that just makes it a dumb award.  You say that anyone could win it but in practice QB's win it 80% of the time and the remaining 20% of the time it's offensive skill players only.  

 

I'd rather just call it the most dominate player award and give it to the person who was the most clearly dominate at their position.  

[Superman]

I'm sort of in the camp that you shouldn't judge the team's best player too much by the team's record or championships.  There is 21 other guys out there who have to step up.

 

I honestly think the Texans could go 19-0 and win the SB and they wouldn't give Watt the MVP for the season.  (He could win the SB MVP, but not the season MVP.)

 

Honestly I almost think they should just do away with the MVP award.  It's like a QB only award that might occasionally go to an RB or WR if they happen to have an amazing season.  But no offensive linemen and no defensive players.  Maybe you can find an exception but that's the general rule.  And I get the argument that QB's affect the game more so they would naturally be the "most valuable players" but that just makes it a dumb award.  You say that anyone could win it but in practice QB's win it 80% of the time and the remaining 20% of the time it's offensive skill players only.  

 

I'd rather just call it the most dominate player award and give it to the person who was the most clearly dominate at their position.  

 

You're arguing against a lot of different norms here. I'm not willing to represent them all, as I don't agree with them all.

 

But I do think that there are qualifiers for MVP consideration, at least in today's society. One of those is that your team has to have a certain degree of success. You could argue that Watt was more valuable to his team than any other player in the NFL last season -- I don't agree, but he's definitely worthy of consideration -- but that has to be qualified. If there's another player who had a great season and his value to his team translates into more wins, then that player's value can be considered greater. 

 

In the case of Watt vs. Rodgers in 2014, Rodgers' value led directly to a 12 win season. Watt's value led to a 9 win season. The Texans probably don't win 5 games without Watt, but the same can be said for the Packers without Rodgers, can't it? In 2013, with Rodgers hurt, the Packers went 2-4-1. In 2013, with Watt, the Texans went 2-14. I know the award is for one season, but the context argues convincingly for Rodgers being more valuable to his team than Watt is to his. A big part of that is because he's a QB, but good QBing is more valuable to a football team than anything else. If it were the Most Outstanding Player award, then that would be different.

 

And all that is why I thought AP deserved MVP in 2012. In a league where the performance of a single runner has been marginalized in recent years, and where QBing has been magnified, Peterson willed his team into the playoffs with a historically transcendent performance, carrying an offense with bad QBing and hardly any receiving threats into the postseason. Bad coaching, too. Peterson's value was proved very clearly.

 

I'm confident that if the Texans had gotten into the playoffs, Watt would have received even more MVP votes than he did. I'm not sure why anyone thinks "they won't give it to him" as a rule; he got 13 votes last season as it is. If a majority or plurality of the 50 voters vote for him, he gets it. I just think his value to his team has to be more obvious in the win/loss column. 

[BloodyChamp]

Do away with the MVP VOTERS!!!!!! They just pick whatever quarterback has the cleanest jersey and the cleanest statline (clean as in efficiency based stats) unless somebody breaks a rushing record. They don't consider stats in the context of the game, clutch stats, etc.

If I were a Colt I wouldn't want Luck to change just so he could win the MVP. He's got bigger fish to fry - rings. I think he'll win a ring or 2 if he keeps doing what he's doing. You have to take chances and bruises to win a ring, but not the MVP until these voters quit mancrushing on QBR.

[Superman]

Do away with the MVP VOTERS!!!!!! They just pick whatever quarterback has the cleanest jersey and the cleanest statline (clean as in efficiency based stats) unless somebody breaks a rushing record. They don't consider stats in the context of the game, clutch stats, etc.

If I were a Colt I wouldn't want Luck to change just so he could win the MVP. He's got bigger fish to fry - rings. I think he'll win a ring or 2 if he keeps doing what he's doing. You have to take chances and bruises to win a ring, but not the MVP until these voters quit mancrushing on QBR.

 

JJ Watt got 13 votes for MVP. Demarco Murray got 2. Bobby Wagner got 1. 

[amfootball]

Do away with the MVP VOTERS!!!!!! They just pick whatever quarterback has the cleanest jersey and the cleanest statline (clean as in efficiency based stats) unless somebody breaks a rushing record. They don't consider stats in the context of the game, clutch stats, etc.

If I were a Colt I wouldn't want Luck to change just so he could win the MVP. He's got bigger fish to fry - rings. I think he'll win a ring or 2 if he keeps doing what he's doing. You have to take chances and bruises to win a ring, but not the MVP until these voters quit mancrushing on QBR.

A chunk of votes last year went to non-QBs and if Houston had made the playoffs, Watt would have most likely won MVP or split with Rodgers.

[BloodyChamp]

...or unless somebody gets 20.5 sacks and score TDs on offense and defense.

[oldunclemark]

OBJ

Just to feed the hype

Reality: Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers is the most likely choice. He's coming of his best season and the Packers have

the NFC's best offense

[chad72]

Luck for MVP, Rodgers SB MVP. 

 

Unfortunately, this is my prediction too - Colts vs Packers in the SB with the Packers having the edge.

 

But things are definitely aligned for Luck winning regular season MVP.

[amfootball]

Unfortunately, this is my prediction too - Colts vs Packers in the SB with the Packers having the edge.

 

But things are definitely aligned for Luck winning regular season MVP.

I think with Luck it depends on how his turnovers go. If he is still up north of 14 than he won't win it. He will need to have those come down to have a chance. Also the intent of the O would seem to be more balanced with the signing of Gore so not sure how much Luck will be throwing to compile stats. For sure he has the weapons to have a great season but a lot depends on the run game and if the Colts come out closer to 2013 in their offensive philosophy verses 2014.

[Surge89]

Dark horse... Leveon Bell even with his presumed 1 game suspension.

[Valpo2004]

You're arguing against a lot of different norms here. I'm not willing to represent them all, as I don't agree with them all.

 

But I do think that there are qualifiers for MVP consideration, at least in today's society. One of those is that your team has to have a certain degree of success. You could argue that Watt was more valuable to his team than any other player in the NFL last season -- I don't agree, but he's definitely worthy of consideration -- but that has to be qualified. If there's another player who had a great season and his value to his team translates into more wins, then that player's value can be considered greater. 

 

In the case of Watt vs. Rodgers in 2014, Rodgers' value led directly to a 12 win season. Watt's value led to a 9 win season. The Texans probably don't win 5 games without Watt, but the same can be said for the Packers without Rodgers, can't it? In 2013, with Rodgers hurt, the Packers went 2-4-1. In 2013, with Watt, the Texans went 2-14. I know the award is for one season, but the context argues convincingly for Rodgers being more valuable to his team than Watt is to his. A big part of that is because he's a QB, but good QBing is more valuable to a football team than anything else. If it were the Most Outstanding Player award, then that would be different.

 

And all that is why I thought AP deserved MVP in 2012. In a league where the performance of a single runner has been marginalized in recent years, and where QBing has been magnified, Peterson willed his team into the playoffs with a historically transcendent performance, carrying an offense with bad QBing and hardly any receiving threats into the postseason. Bad coaching, too. Peterson's value was proved very clearly.

 

I'm confident that if the Texans had gotten into the playoffs, Watt would have received even more MVP votes than he did. I'm not sure why anyone thinks "they won't give it to him" as a rule; he got 13 votes last season as it is. If a majority or plurality of the 50 voters vote for him, he gets it. I just think his value to his team has to be more obvious in the win/loss column. 

 

That's my thing I think it should be a most outstanding award.  I agree with you that a QB naturally has more value to a team then anyone else.  But I think it's silly to have an MVP award but then turn it into an award that QB's win 80% of the time due to the nature of their position.

[Superman]

That's my thing I think it should be a most outstanding award.  I agree with you that a QB naturally has more value to a team then anyone else.  But I think it's silly to have an MVP award but then turn it into an award that QB's win 80% of the time due to the nature of their position.

 

Practically every sport has an MVP award. But QB is the most important position in team sports, so there's an inordinate slant toward QBs in MVP voting. If it was Most Outstanding or Most Dominant, then other players would have more of a chance, but by definition, Most Valuable is going to favor QBs. We all know how valuable quality QBing is.

[Swan Ronson]

It should just be player of the year rather than MVP. To the best of my knowledge America is the only country that has MVP rather than player of the year, or man of the match for single games.

[FanFromtheWasteland]

no defensive player will win it. Watt had possibly the best season a DE could have last year and didn't get it.

I agree. A defencive player just can't have the overall impact for a team game in game out as a whole that a qb or running back can have. Just look at what happens when a team looses one of those offensive players.

I pick Luck. (love these homer glasses)

[Valpo2004]

Practically every sport has an MVP award. But QB is the most important position in team sports, so there's an inordinate slant toward QBs in MVP voting. If it was Most Outstanding or Most Dominant, then other players would have more of a chance, but by definition, Most Valuable is going to favor QBs. We all know how valuable quality QBing is.

 

And that is a problem in football.  Most other sports don't have the problem of one position being naturally far more important then all the others.  

 

Bad QB's have held back teams that have 21 other great players on that team.  At the same time good/great QB's have taken teams with 21 other substandard players deep into the playoffs.  Other sports just don't have that.

[amfootball]

Practically every sport has an MVP award. But QB is the most important position in team sports, so there's an inordinate slant toward QBs in MVP voting. If it was Most Outstanding or Most Dominant, then other players would have more of a chance, but by definition, Most Valuable is going to favor QBs. We all know how valuable quality QBing is.

I have always wondered given this slant toward the QB position why the league does not have a most valuable QB award and a most valuable non-QB award. I also think they should have both an AFC MVP and an NFC MVP the way baseball does.