Should the Colts Retain Antoine Bethea?

[Andy]

Antoine Bethea is an unrestricted free agent this season, and his play over the last few seasons suggests that there is a pretty good possibility that he may not be on the team next year. Should the Colts keep him, or should they let him go?

 

 

 

 

Let's look at how Bethea's been performing the last few seasons. On paper, he's been very solid. He's had 100+ tackles in each of the last 3 seasons, as well as 2 interceptions (total) and 3 sacks. Those numbers are on par with some of the better safeties in the league. However, the stat-sheet only says so much. According to Pro Football Focus, over the last 3 seasons, he didn't finish once in the top 20 (for safeties). In fact, over the last 2 seasons, he didn't even rank in the top 50, and graded out negatively over the course of the two years. That's not a pretty stat, that contradicts the first stat mentioned earlier. Those 2 seasons are a big drop off compared to 2008, 2009, and 2010, and 2011 where he finished in the top 25 every time (top 20 three out of four times). It's obvious that there's been a slight drop off, and even if you look at the basic stats, there's even a drop off there.

 

When watching him on tape, he looks very hesitant and he's missing more tackles than usual. This is a guy who established a reputation for being one of the most sure tacklers in the league, and now he's missing nearly 1 tackle a game (on average). Also, when watching tape, he's not as quick to react to certain things. For example, in coverage, he's not making reads very quickly, and in turn, the receivers are able to beat him a lot of the time. I don't know if I can't say that he's a liability in coverage, but he's definitely not an asset.

 

In terms of his performance over the last two seasons, it hasn't been great, and it's definitely not on par with what the Colts expect from Bethea.

 

Let's say the Colts do decide to replace Bethea, who are the possible replacements? There are many options in free agency and some in the draft.

 

In free agency, the safety class this season is among the best we've ever seen. The headliners are T.J Ward and Jairus Byrd, two superstars that are playmakers. Both are expected to get big paydays and unless the Colts want to spend big money, they shouldn't touch those guys. More realistic options include: Miami Dolphins safety Chris Clemons, Detroit Lions safety Louis Delmas, and Philadelphia Eagles safety Nate Allen. All are most likely cheaper options than Bethea, and have the potential to put up similar numbers. Clemons had a very good season with the Dolphins, and was a huge boost for them in coverage. Delmas was the same, and was only released from the Lions because of cap issues. Nate Allen, although not as good as the first two guys, has ties to Grigson and could fit nicely in the system. All 3 graded out better than Bethea this past season (according to Pro Football Focus). All in all, it's one of the best safety classes we've ever seen, and to put it in perspective, Bethea only ranks 7th (in my opinion) amongst the available safeties. It goes to show you there is a lot of talent.

 

As for the draft, it's going to be very hard for the Colts to make some noise in the draft thanks to the little amount of picks they have. The best safety in the draft is Hasean Clinton Dix, with Calvin Pryor being a close second. Both are expected to be long gone before the Colts make their first pick in the 2nd round. Ed Reynolds is a possbility for the Colts in the 2nd round, and could be a nice fit in the system. Jimmie Ward could also fit nicely.

 

Despite the fact that there are prospects in the draft, the problem with rookies is that they are unpredictable and are question marks, MUCH BIGGER question marks than a free agent would be. You generally know what to expect from a free agent. Sometimes they disapoint, sometimes they flourish, but in general, you have a general idea of how they'll perform in the system. Plus, once you start getting into the middle rounds (4th and 5th), they become giant question marks. This draft may have a decent class, but where the Colts are picking, it would be better to avoid getting replacements through the draft.

 

Let's return to the original question: should the Colts retain Antoine Bethea? Unless the Colts are willing to put up big money for guys like TJ Ward, Jairus Byrd or Donte Whitner, then it would be in their best interest to keep Bethea for the right price. In his last contract, Bethea averaged 6.5M a year. In this next contract, he cannot make a dime over 6.5M and should actually take a slightly smaller contract. The Colts should not be willing to give him something for more than 5.5M a year (on average), or else they'll be losing value. If the price is right, they should definitely keep Bethea, because he's a leader and he knows the defense, but he is not a guy that you overpay to keep.

 

What do you guys think?

[NewColtsFan]

In his end of the year address to the media, Grigson said one of his goals was to sign Davis and Bethea and bring them both back.

 

Whether that can be done or not is another story.   But the publicly stated goal was to re-sign.

[TKnight24]

Andy!!!! why the long post??!!

But good write up though. I personally feel it's time to move on from Bethea. But then I also come back to my original knowledge "Everything starts up front". If we get a much improved pass rush, pur defensive secondary will vastly improve as a whole

[southwest1]

Ah yes, the Bob Sanders debate all over again. Attachment vs age, health, & diminished production...Time to go in a new direction here from Bethea in my estimation. Thank you for all your dedicated years of service in INDY, but we cannot fall prey to sentimentality here something the best franchises never do. 

 

Thank you Andy for the bigger font usage for skimming purposes & giving the audience a feel & flavor for who you are i.e. inserting your personality on paper. Bravo! 

 

 "All in all, it's one of the best safety classes we've ever seen, and to put it in perspective, Bethea only ranks 7th (in my opinion) amongst the available safeties. It goes to show you there is a lot of talent... If the price is right, they should definitely keep Bethea, because he's a leader and he knows the defense, but he is not a guy that you overpay to keep." 

 

Be careful though in believing that another safety like Jairus Byrd cannot be brought up to speed in INDY very quickly. As much as I love HC Tony Dungy, he had trouble letting players who needed to be released go. I don't want to see Pagano fall into that same trap. 

 

Never fall in love with previous production in past seasons only what that player can provide consistently now. I have a hard time listening to my own advice when it comes to RB Bradshaw. I will acknowledge that publicly right now so I know how tough it is to cut a beloved/well respected player loose. But, Bethea has gotta go...

[Gavin]

Time for Bethea to go, for as many blown coverages as he does he doesn't make nearly that many plays on the ball.....14 picks in 7 years(and 4 of those came in 1 year) and 46 passes defensed...Thats 2 picks per year and 6.5 passes defensed...He has never had a season of double digit passes defensed, only forced 5 fumbles(all 5 came over a 3 year span), He has simply not been much in terms of a playmaker, I dont think he is slowing down, I dont think he quit, I think he has reached his talent level,

[arkana04]

I just dont think the secondary can be as good as it could be with a Landry and Bethea pairing. 

 

Bethea struggles in the one major concept which landy lacks and that is coverage for that reason alone im hesistant to bring him back. 

[Gavin]

There are plenty of Safeties in this draft that will turn out to be an upgrade over Bethea, BUT Bethea has also been learning a new system though the last two years, Prior to that he had been in a Cover 2 scheme since playing at Howard University (In other words he was drafted to play in the Cover 2 specifically), Now I think the real question is with him turning 30 before next season starts, is it worth it to resign him? I dont think he will take less to play knowing that he will be on the wrong side of 30 by the time the season starts, I think its time to move on

[TKnight24]

Draft Quandre Diggs & Carrington Byndom from Texas

Boom, problem solved

[Gavin]

Draft Quandre Diggs & Carrington Byndom from Texas

Boom, problem solved

Diggs went back for his Senior year I believe, Byndom I think will be a better nickel corner in the NFL, good coming off the edge and making a tackle, pretty quick but struggles to shed blocks, Has gotten better at getting his head around though on balls thrown his way, shows some physicality to press to but mich better coming off the edge in Nickel

[Bluefire4]

We should only let him go if we are sure we can get his replacement.

[theanarchist]

There are plenty of Safeties in this draft that will turn out to be an upgrade over Bethea, BUT Bethea has also been learning a new system though the last two years, Prior to that he had been in a Cover 2 scheme since playing at Howard University (In other words he was drafted to play in the Cover 2 specifically), Now I think the real question is with him turning 30 before next season starts, is it worth it to resign him? I dont think he will take less to play knowing that he will be on the wrong side of 30 by the time the season starts, I think its time to move on

You make a good point. Bethea looked a lot better in the cover 2. Is that because he is a better fit for that scheme or is it because he is getting older and has some miles on his tread? I don't know but I think it's probably time to bring in a different safety. I like what Delano Howell did when he was playing this  year. He showed some promise. Is he the answer? IDK but I'm not sold on there being a lot of talent available in the draft either.

 

Bethea has been one of my favorite players since he was drafted. Great pick by Polian by the way. As I've stated before the team really had a revolving door at Safety before Bethea was drafted and he came in and did a great job for a number of years. It was a pleasure watching him when he was on top of his game.

[JoshPhilpot]

Retain him. We have bigger problems to address.

[BrentMc11]

Bethea appears to be 'excited' to test the free agent waters.  That means what?  He wants $$$$$!!  We cannot afford to overpay an aging FS.  I say only if the price is right!!

 

I am not so sure Delano Howell could not be as productive there with Davis.  Howell was better in coverage than Bethea and Landry.

 

We also have a shot at some 'bigger safeties' via the draft.  Of course most of us would not mind a shot at Jarius Byrd...not holding my breath....

 

[throwing BBZ]

 

Antoine Bethea is an unrestricted free agent this season, and his play over the last few seasons suggests that there is a pretty good possibility that he may not be on the team next year. Should the Colts keep him, or should they let him go?

 

 

 

 

Let's look at how Bethea's been performing the last few seasons. On paper, he's been very solid. He's had 100+ tackles in each of the last 3 seasons, as well as 2 interceptions (total) and 3 sacks. Those numbers are on par with some of the better safeties in the league. However, the stat-sheet only says so much. According to Pro Football Focus, over the last 3 seasons, he didn't finish once in the top 20 (for safeties). In fact, over the last 2 seasons, he didn't even rank in the top 50, and graded out negatively over the course of the two years. That's not a pretty stat, that contradicts the first stat mentioned earlier. Those 2 seasons are a big drop off compared to 2008, 2009, and 2010, and 2011 where he finished in the top 25 every time (top 20 three out of four times). It's obvious that there's been a slight drop off, and even if you look at the basic stats, there's even a drop off there.

 

When watching him on tape, he looks very hesitant and he's missing more tackles than usual. This is a guy who established a reputation for being one of the most sure tacklers in the league, and now he's missing nearly 1 tackle a game (on average). Also, when watching tape, he's not as quick to react to certain things. For example, in coverage, he's not making reads very quickly, and in turn, the receivers are able to beat him a lot of the time. I don't know if I can't say that he's a liability in coverage, but he's definitely not an asset.

 

In terms of his performance over the last two seasons, it hasn't been great, and it's definitely not on par with what the Colts expect from Bethea.

 

Let's say the Colts do decide to replace Bethea, who are the possible replacements? There are many options in free agency and some in the draft.

 

In free agency, the safety class this season is among the best we've ever seen. The headliners are T.J Ward and Jairus Byrd, two superstars that are playmakers. Both are expected to get big paydays and unless the Colts want to spend big money, they shouldn't touch those guys. More realistic options include: Miami Dolphins safety Chris Clemons, Detroit Lions safety Louis Delmas, and Philadelphia Eagles safety Nate Allen. All are most likely cheaper options than Bethea, and have the potential to put up similar numbers. Clemons had a very good season with the Dolphins, and was a huge boost for them in coverage. Delmas was the same, and was only released from the Lions because of cap issues. Nate Allen, although not as good as the first two guys, has ties to Grigson and could fit nicely in the system. All 3 graded out better than Bethea this past season (according to Pro Football Focus). All in all, it's one of the best safety classes we've ever seen, and to put it in perspective, Bethea only ranks 7th (in my opinion) amongst the available safeties. It goes to show you there is a lot of talent.

 

As for the draft, it's going to be very hard for the Colts to make some noise in the draft thanks to the little amount of picks they have. The best safety in the draft is Hasean Clinton Dix, with Calvin Pryor being a close second. Both are expected to be long gone before the Colts make their first pick in the 2nd round. Ed Reynolds is a possbility for the Colts in the 2nd round, and could be a nice fit in the system. Jimmie Ward could also fit nicely.

 

Despite the fact that there are prospects in the draft, the problem with rookies is that they are unpredictable and are question marks, MUCH BIGGER question marks than a free agent would be. You generally know what to expect from a free agent. Sometimes they disapoint, sometimes they flourish, but in general, you have a general idea of how they'll perform in the system. Plus, once you start getting into the middle rounds (4th and 5th), they become giant question marks. This draft may have a decent class, but where the Colts are picking, it would be better to avoid getting replacements through the draft.

 

Let's return to the original question: should the Colts retain Antoine Bethea? Unless the Colts are willing to put up big money for guys like TJ Ward, Jairus Byrd or Donte Whitner, then it would be in their best interest to keep Bethea for the right price. In his last contract, Bethea averaged 6.5M a year. In this next contract, he cannot make a dime over 6.5M and should actually take a slightly smaller contract. The Colts should not be willing to give him something for more than 5.5M a year (on average), or else they'll be losing value. If the price is right, they should definitely keep Bethea, because he's a leader and he knows the defense, but he is not a guy that you overpay to keep.

 

What do you guys think?

 

 

He makes a lot of tackles downfield because he has played with STINK D lines (rush yard ATM Freeney & to a lesser degree Mathis) and many others, and some mediocre linebacker play that the poor line play can cause.

 Who would want a weak centerfielder like Antoine?

 From what i have read, Ward is also more like Bethea than i would want, and I listened to a discussion regarding Byrd on the NFL network which highlighted how statistically, Byrd was not effective last season defending the pass on 3rd down. Hmmm!

 A shame that knucklehead from the last draft imploded.

A True FS Needs to be added, a guy with cover skills as i am very optomistic we are headed for better front Seven play, lessening the need for Two strong safeties.

 ASAP one through the draft who will play for peanuts for 4-5 years is a NEED. As always, JMO.

 

 Our GM/Coach are all about Veteran respect and locker room think, I think, and are willing to hurt the play on the field in the shorter term to maintain a level of long term trust, i have come to believe (Satele-McGlynn-Angerer-Mathews-Ijalana-Hughes-etc.)

 I Bet Bethea will be back at a price to gag on.

 

[BpG]

Colts did a nice job retaining Bethea while he was young and productive for the right amount of money and years. Now they are setup to be able to retain him at a similarly structured contract. I think they should try to keep him, not sense in going into next year with a rookie at FS. Especially given how horrible Landry is in coverage at SS. 

[Horse Shoe Heaven]

Bethea should stay for the right money. He is still a productive safety and team leader. No he is not the best center fielder but solid. A good tackler.

[Dark Superman]

I we decide to let him go we need to upgrade his position either in free agency or early in the draft. I do not feel comfortable with Howell as the starter.

[USAFHoosier]

I love what he has done for the team since he has been here but they need someone who can play center field.  To many times the safeties were beat deep.

[Patagonia Chris]

If the price is right and he's the best option available then sure, but he's not worth big money anymore. He also had a few noticeable lapses in coverage over the last couple of years.

[COLTS449]

Bethea was one of my favorite players a few years ago, and he had some really good seasons, but it's time to move on. I hate to see him go, but it's best for the team. We can draft a FS in the second like Reynolds, Brooks, or Bailey, and they should be an immediate upgrade. If we didn't have Landry, Bethea would be fine playing SS, but we have to get a true FS who can cover IMO.

[Kyle]

I was leaning towards thinking we should let him go....  Then he dropped the INT in the endzone vs the Pats and I absolutely knew we should let him go. 

 

 

He did make the hustle play of the year vs KC though when he ran the chiefs player down and tackled him at the one.  we then held them to a FG and won the game by less than 4.  hmm....  

[Yoshinator]

We have two options here, either retain Bethea for the right price, or splurge a little and take Ward or Byrd in Free Agency. 

I'd rather have a guaranteed solid player for slightly more than a mediocre player with potential to be very good. It's different if you're drafting a player and go that route instead of free agency. We have no shot at HA HA or Pryor at safety though, so we should spend slightly more on a ward or Byrd than get a chris clemons that's a question mark. Most players that aren't excellent by the time they are in their mid 20s, aren't going to reach that level later in their career. Usually what you see is what you get from free agents based on around 5 years of experience already. Best to go with the sure thing.

[pacolts56]

NO.

 

Antoine Bethea gave us some VERY nice years at FS.....but we simply need better coverage on the back end in this "QB-driven pass-first league" everyone cackles about....with gigantic TE's running seam routes as fast as the human-tree WRs also littering the league.

 

Bethea does not offer that....and we can't be in the business of giving out lifetime achievement contracts. That's Dan Snyder's job.

 

If we have the opportunity to field a Colts secondary in 2014 and beyond, consisting of....

 

CB Vontae Davis - CB Darius Butler - FS Jairus Byrd - SS Laron Landry

 

.....and still upgrade C / ILB / OG / DL with what is expected to be 28m in remaining cap space, plus our draft picks, then we should do it. If the contracts are carefully structured, it can be done without crippling us when Luck, Fleener & Co. come due.

 

Whether the Safety position is deemed important enough to lure a player like Jairus Byrd is up to people a lot smarter than me, but all I know is the Seahawks just won a Super Bowl with a nearly bullet-proof secondary. It's not the only reason Seattle absolutely befuddled the great Peyton Manning....but it played a damn big part.

 

So if Buffalo doesn't slap a tag on Byrd then IMO, we oughta try and sign him.

:pass: .....intercepted!!....Colts ball!!!

[devante83192]

Depends on the price..I'm more concerned with Laron to be truthful.

[Ja'Crispy]

Bring in Drew Carey for the negotiations. Make sure the price is right...

 

 

I'll see myself out 

 

[COLTS449]

We have two options here, either retain Bethea for the right price, or splurge a little and take Ward or Byrd in Free Agency. 

I'd rather have a guaranteed solid player for slightly more than a mediocre player with potential to be very good. It's different if you're drafting a player and go that route instead of free agency. We have no shot at HA HA or Pryor at safety though, so we should spend slightly more on a ward or Byrd than get a chris clemons that's a question mark. Most players that aren't excellent by the time they are in their mid 20s, aren't going to reach that level later in their career. Usually what you see is what you get from free agents based on around 5 years of experience already. Best to go with the sure thing.

 

We can get a starting safety in the second round. Last year John Cyprien and DJ Swearinger went in the 2nd, and Tyrann Mathieu in the 3rd.

[DougDew]

No.  I would not retain Bethea.  I think the colts need a safety that is better in coverage.  This would also allow Landry to play in the box more, which I think is more natural for him. 

 

I would use the money that would be spent on Bethea for signing Clemons, the Dolphin FA safety.

 

If Clemons or any other coverage safety is too expensive, then perhaps resigning Bethea would be the best option.

 

My ideal offseason for the safety position would be to sign Clemons, and draft either Tre Boston or Kenny Ladller with the 5th round pick to develop with Delano Howell.

[BLUEx40]

give him the tag doesn't work out than bye bye

[SteelDragon]

give him the tag doesn't work out than bye bye

 

Huh? You mean, franchise tag?  You mean pay him approximately 6.9 million for this upcoming season? Uhmmm.... NO THANK YOU!

[Rich Cannon]

Bethea, Ward or Byrd.  As long as Grigson doesn't bring Delmas over he's a bone head.  

[Coffeedrinker]

Yes, the Colts should retain Bethea.  When you look at the effect he has on winning the game he had the 3rd best season of his career in 2013.  Combined with Landry making the 2nd year in the system improvement, the two of them could form a top 5 safety tandem in the league.

 

People want Byrd but his numbers are not significantly better in any category and he wants to be the highest paid safety ever in the NFL, and IMO his production does not warrant that type of pay day for Byrd.

[ProblChld32]

I would love to see Bethea remain in Indy, but realistically i dont see it happening. I doubt they are willing to give a BIG pay day to an aging safety. Bethea has been exteremely solid during his stint with the Colts and personally i see him as a top 5 safety in the league. i think Grigson is taking into account future signings seeing as Fleener, Allen, Hilton, and most importantly Luck will demand significant contracts in due time. I think they will make Bethea an offer but ultimately i think he will decline and test FA unless he's willing to take a pay cut to stay.

[BLUEx40]

Huh? You mean, franchise tag?  You mean pay him approximately 6.9 million for this upcoming season? Uhmmm.... NO THANK YOU!

I do think I would be a good idea to give him the tag because we could get a decent cover safety in the draft to groom behind him for a year and it doesn't hurt you have bethea giving you pointers. so if were putting words in all caps than......YES PLEASE!!

[Gavin]

I do think I would be a good idea to give him the tag because we could get a decent cover safety in the draft to groom behind him for a year and it doesn't hurt you have bethea giving you pointers. so if were putting words in all caps than......YES PLEASE!!

What pointers can Bethea give?....Step 1 on how to miss a tackle or blow a coverage?

[pacolts56]

I do think I would be a good idea to give him the tag because we could get a decent cover safety in the draft to groom behind him for a year and it doesn't hurt you have bethea giving you pointers. so if were putting words in all caps than......YES PLEASE!!

If this is accurate....that tag price for Safeties is not $6.9m, its now $8.1m. And even that figure is based on a $128m team cap number, which is reportedly 2m dollars low.

 

http://www.fieldgulls.com/2013-nfl-offseason/2014/2/17/5419532/nfl-franchise-tag-window-now-open-seahawks-will-weigh-options

 

Sorry, Antione Bethea is not worth $6.9m....never mind $8.1m, or whatever the tag price winds up at.