Indianapolis (-8.5) @ Jacksonville (9-29-13)

[oldunclemark]

Vegas may be a little leery of this game sitting between SF and Seattle

Over-under is 43....

'Under' sounds good..

...and if you can get 10 (and you might before the week is out) , take Jacksonville...Colts don't score a lot

[Goodtimes]

Vegas may be a little leery of this game sitting between SF and Seattle

Over-under is 43....

'Under' sounds good..

...and if you can get 10 (and you might before the week is out) , take Jacksonville...Colts don't score a lot

 

This team is so up and down that it would not surprise me to see them drop this game (especially if MJD is in good health) after such a great effort in San Francisco. The Colts should win it handily (which may be a curse) by something like 24-10.

Edited September 24, 2013 by Superman

[MarylandTerrapin]

I get what Vegas is saying.  On the surface, this has a "trap game" feel - inferior divisional opponent on the road sandwiched between 2 tough opponents.  I'm confident that we'll get the W, but I see this game going like the game at KC last year.  MJD did run for 177 in his only game against us last year, but I think we'll do a better job this time around and we'll force Gabbert to beat us.  It's a divisional game and Pags will drive that point home to the team.

[OffensivelyPC]

It's been quite a while since we've seen odds that much in our favor.  As long as the Colts don't take it lightly, which I am sure they wouldn't, then there's almost no reason we should lose this game.

[AlaskaColtsFan]

I'm going to take it with a grain of salt.  Remember last week we were the 10 point underdogs.

[jameszeigler834]

I don't listen to Vegas because if you remember they said all PA super bowl last year and that didn't even come close to happening.

[seeblu]

If I were betting on the game, I'd take 11 all day.  Don't look for a let down from this Colt team.  Only thing about this team that concerns me is that the team seems to start each game flat and then get serious in the 2d Q. 

[Smonroe]

I don't care a lick if we don't cover the spread.  If we win by one point, it still counts.

 

Win, no serious injuries, move on.  Don't give a flying hockey puck about Vegas.

[Coffeedrinker]

If I were betting on the game, I'd take 11 all day.  Don't look for a let down from this Colt team.  Only thing about this team that concerns me is that the team seems to start each game flat and then get serious in the 2d Q. 

I know, right.  Well sure in the Oakland game they scored a TD on their first possession.  Okay well in the SF game they took the opening kickoff and marched down the field for a TD.  But in the Miami game they didn't score until the 2nd quarter but I get what you're saying because I usually base my trends on things that happen 1 out of 3 times rather than 2 out of 3 times.

[chad72]

I know, right.  Well sure in the Oakland game they scored a TD on their first possession.  Okay well in the SF game they took the opening kickoff and marched down the field for a TD.  But in the Miami game they didn't score until the 2nd quarter but I get what you're saying because I usually base my trends on things that happen 1 out of 3 times rather than 2 out of 3 times.

 

I agree. I'd be more concerned about getting a 2 TD lead and letting MJD and the Jags back in. Unlike the 49ers, they will not stop feeding MJD in the second half. Stopping MJD will be the key to covering the spread and winning.

 

I am just glad that Justin Blackmon is still suspended because we won't have much film to base on regarding his play. Gabbert, we pretty much know what we are getting.

[CanuckColt]

Vegas may be a little leery of this game sitting between SF and Seattle

Over-under is 43....

'Under' sounds good..

...and if you can get 10 (and you might before the week is out) , take Jacksonville...Colts don't score a lot

Part of the maturing process for a team is learning to beat the teams you are supposed to beat without slacking off and playing down to their level.

We will see how well the team is maturing in Jax this weekend.

[Larry Horseman]

8.5 is a pretty big spread by NFL standards. They have progressively put up more points (2, 9, 17), but only held one opponent under 20 points, which was the Raiders, the two teams only common opponent. Jags held them to 19 and we held them to 17.

 

I'd take the Colts with the points but bet the under.  

[Larry Horseman]

If I were betting on the game, I'd take 11 all day.  Don't look for a let down from this Colt team.  Only thing about this team that concerns me is that the team seems to start each game flat and then get serious in the 2d Q. 

 

The 3rd quarter is by far our worst--we have only scored 6 points, compared to 17 in the 1st, 24 in the 2nd, and 21 in the 4th.

[NewEra]

Is like to see a little 375 payback!!

[chrisfarley]

I hate it when we're favored. 

[The Colonel]

It's continuing to build off of last week.. Last week was not the end game for us, and I hope the team realizes that. We still have some work to do, and we can still get better. I loved what we established last week, I just hope they don't get too content! I have faith! Go Colts!

[ReMeDy]

After last week, I don't see how we even come close to losing this. We played solid mistake-free football in all phases. Jacksonville, on the other hand, has mistakes in all phases.

[John Dee]

Vegas may be a little leery of this game sitting between SF and Seattle

Over-under is 43....

'Under' sounds good..

...and if you can get 10 (and you might before the week is out) , take Jacksonville...Colts don't score a lot

Why would "Vegas" be "worried" ??? 

 

They get their "JUICE" every week.          The public evens the line every week.  But the "book" gets their 10% like clockwork.

The book NEVER loses money.

 

Indy and Jax is always a very tight game....         

 

Go with your GUT.

[John Dee]

Danger ...          Indy should take care of biz.....      BUT, INDY vs Jax is more times than not a WAR.

 

Div foes.

After last week, I don't see how we even come close to losing this. We played solid mistake-free football in all phases. Jacksonville, on the other hand, has mistakes in all phases.

[dw49]

Why would "Vegas" be "worried" ??? 

 

They get their "JUICE" every week.          The public evens the line every week.  But the "book" gets their 10% like clockwork.

The book NEVER loses money.

 

Indy and Jax is always a very tight game....         

 

Go with your GUT.

 

 

 

They indeed have an edge but the betting is not "evened off " on every game. When a line comes out "bad" , they will adjust it unit money starts coming in on both sides. But by no means do they always get enough on the other side and be assured of getting their vig.  For instance , they were killed on SB XLV. No doubt they make a fortune as most betters are big suckers. Anyway here's a link to the bath they took on that game.

 

http://www.businessinsider.com/super-bowl-vegas-sports-books-lost-money-2011-2

[dw49]

8.5 is a pretty big spread by NFL standards. They have progressively put up more points (2, 9, 17), but only held one opponent under 20 points, which was the Raiders, the two teams only common opponent. Jags held them to 19 and we held them to 17.

 

I'd take the Colts with the points but bet the under.  

 

 

Right .....8.5 on the road is a big number.

[oldunclemark]

I don't listen to Vegas because if you remember they said all PA super bowl last year and that didn't even come close to happening.

The spread is correct more than 50% of the time.....

..but you are correct...all 3 of our games have been far off the line so far..

We were 10-point favorites over Oakland...and 5 over Miami...SF was 10.5 over us..

all not close

[jbaron04]

The 3rd quarter is by far our worst--we have only scored 6 points, compared to 17 in the 1st, 24 in the 2nd, and 21 in the 4th.

what is that saying to you, to me it seem we dont adjust good in the second half? the 3rd mainly coming out of the locker we seem to be one of the worst teams lol

[Larry Horseman]

what is that saying to you, to me it seem we dont adjust good in the second half? the 3rd mainly coming out of the locker we seem to be one of the worst teams lol

 

Agreed. I'm hoping it gets better as the year goes on.

[Larry Horseman]

Right .....8.5 on the road is a big number.

 

We are up to +9.5 now. This is a really tough call now. As a note, we have the second largest spread behind Philly @ Denver (10.5). I have to wonder if we were 1-2 coming off a loss at SF what the spread would be--I bet more like 6.5.

[jbaron04]

Agreed. I'm hoping it gets better as the year goes on.

like i dont get it why we always take the 3rd quarter off, even last yr 

[Larry Horseman]

like i dont get it why we always take the 3rd quarter off, even last yr 

 

We have also only given up 10 points. So, defense is good in 3rd, offense is bad. I would be interested to see data for each NFL team before I jump to further conclusions. I know we are spoiled with the Manning era 3rd quarters, and maybe that skews our perception of the norm? I have been thinking that the 3rd quarter offensive struggles are due to a lack of adjustments (coaching) and a young team (both age and experience in the systems). Now I wonder if we are that much different than other teams as far as scoring and/or if it is more by design--grind it out in the 3rd quarter to wear down the D and score in the 4th? Will be interesting to watch how/if this changes as the year goes on.

 

Edit: The Colts are 28th in 3rd quarter points/game, averaging 2; the top 10 stops at 7/game. So, yes, we are well below league average. http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/3rd-quarter-points-per-game

[dw49]

We are up to +9.5 now. This is a really tough call now. As a note, we have the second largest spread behind Philly @ Denver (10.5). I have to wonder if we were 1-2 coming off a loss at SF what the spread would be--I bet more like 6.5.

 

 

Most of the Vegas books still at 8.5 . I copied the odds at a bunch. Looks like it opened at 7.5 , one has stayed there , one has gone to 9.5 as you say and the rest are 8-8.5. 

 

Yes that last game changed things a bit. Did you see that SF is only -3 at St Louis ?

 

Here's the odds on the Colt game as we speak.... The first is the opening line and the next 8 are the present lines from 7 different books.

 

 

 

206 Jacksonville  

-7½ -15

41½u-10  

-8½ -10

43u-10  

-7½ -10

42½u-10  

-8½ -10

42½u-10  

-8½ -10

43u-10  

-8 -10

42½u-10  

-8½ -10

43u-10  

-8½ -10

43u-10  

-9½ -05

43u-10 JAC-QB-Blaine Gabbert-Probable | TV: CBS, DTV: 706

[Dudley Smith]

Even though they are a bad team, Jax almost always plays the Colts very tough. I wouldn't be surprised to see this being a close game down the stretch. I could see the Colts winning by double digits, but I bet the game is a single digit spread until the 4th quarter. MJD seems like he has single-handily kept Jax in almost all of the games with the Colts over the last few years...don't get me started on that fluke TD pass by Gabbert last year for the Jax win in Indy.

[jbaron04]

We have also only given up 10 points. So, defense is good in 3rd, offense is bad. I would be interested to see data for each NFL team before I jump to further conclusions. I know we are spoiled with the Manning era 3rd quarters, and maybe that skews our perception of the norm? I have been thinking that the 3rd quarter offensive struggles are due to a lack of adjustments (coaching) and a young team (both age and experience in the systems). Now I wonder if we are that much different than other teams as far as scoring and/or if it is more by design--grind it out in the 3rd quarter to wear down the D and score in the 4th? Will be interesting to watch how/if this changes as the year goes on.

 

Edit: The Colts are 28th in 3rd quarter points/game, averaging 2; the top 10 stops at 7/game. So, yes, we are well below league average. http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/3rd-quarter-points-per-game

or i could be as simple as both def make adjustments off try to go to what was working and def stops its i dont know lol

[chad72]

31-13, or maybe 31-20 with a late garbage TD for Jags.

 

Then I will watch this forum erupt over "just" a 11 pt. win .

[SilentHill]

I'm still starting MJD on my fantasy team until it's proven otherwise that he wont run all over us.

[oldunclemark]

We are up to +9.5 now. This is a really tough call now. As a note, we have the second largest spread behind Philly @ Denver (10.5). I have to wonder if we were 1-2 coming off a loss at SF what the spread would be--I bet more like 6.5.

I hope we don't play conservatively.....

..it worked at SF.....but it would only keep Jax n the game.

Don't take the Colts giving 10 points and the 'under' is the best bet

[oldunclemark]

If I were betting on the game, I'd take 11 all day.  Don't look for a let down from this Colt team.  Only thing about this team that concerns me is that the team seems to start each game flat and then get serious in the 2d Q.

We aren't a high scoring team...blu....we weren't last year.

We didn't cover 10 at home vs. Oakland 3 weeks ago

There's a betting rule that says never give 10 on the road.

I'd obey that rule here

[Gunnar Ree]

This should be a total and utter destruction, division foes or not. Teddy Bridgewater vs Andrew Luck should be interesting for years to come. This team is the absolute worst in the NFL and makes several european football teams look worthy as a replacement.

[oldunclemark]

This should be a total and utter destruction, division foes or not. Teddy Bridgewater vs Andrew Luck should be interesting for years to come. This team is the absolute worst in the NFL and makes several european football teams look worthy as a replacement.

We don't utterly destruct anybody

[BleedBlu8792]

This should be a total and utter destruction, division foes or not. Teddy Bridgewater vs Andrew Luck should be interesting for years to come. This team is the absolute worst in the NFL and makes several european football teams look worthy as a replacement.

Bridgewater is a joke.. Another Geno Smith at most. He will be a deer in headlights when he gets to playing with the big boys and not FCS schools.

[BleedBlu8792]

My bookie has them listed at -8. If it stays there I will bite, but anything more and I'm out.

[HungarianColtsFan]

Interesting, out of 24 colts-Rams matches 19 were decided by less than 1 score. As we always keep struggling against the Jax (we weren't impressive lass season when we won by a lot) I don't expect a devastating Colts win, unless our D would be in inspired shape and shut down Jax O-line completely, or T-Rich was released at large, or Luck was allowed to air the ball more.

[seeblu]

I know, right.  Well sure in the Oakland game they scored a TD on their first possession.  Okay well in the SF game they took the opening kickoff and marched down the field for a TD.  But in the Miami game they didn't score until the 2nd quarter but I get what you're saying because I usually base my trends on things that happen 1 out of 3 times rather than 2 out of 3 times.

 

My bad.  I was speaking about the defense not coming out with the intensity they need.