Colts will Likely trade to 1st

[Indyfan4life]

Seems the Bears are “leaning towards” making a deal for the number 1 pick. 

[coltsfeva]

1 hour ago, Indyfan4life said:

Seems the Bears are “leaning towards” making a deal for the number 1 pick. 

 A wild card in this is Arizona. If both Chicago and Arizona trade down, you could see 3 QBs going before the Colts, should the Colts stay put. 
   If Ballard and Steichen are okay with ANY of the top 4 QBs, it may not be worth it to give up draft capital. If on the other hand, there’s a specific guy they want, they may have to give up a lot to get him. It may help that Eberflus might want guys like Leonard, Moore or another defensive player, in lue of a draft pick. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

15 minutes ago, coltsfeva said:

 A wild card in this is Arizona. If both Chicago and Arizona trade down, you could see 3 QBs going before the Colts, should the Colts stay put. 
   If Ballard and Steichen are okay with ANY of the top 4 QBs, it may not be worth it to give up draft capital. If on the other hand, there’s a specific guy they want, they may have to give up a lot to get him. It may help that Eberflus might want guys like Leonard, Moore or another defensive player, in lue of a draft pick. 

The new AZ coach has had nothing but praise for Murray. I doubt they will draft a QB. Plus he is defensive coach. I won’t be surprised if they take one in second though like eagles as insurance.

[jvan1973]

2 hours ago, Myles said:

The Colts currently have no capable NFL starting QB's on their roster.  I guess Foles is the only capable starter on the team.   They have room to draft 2 QB's.  

Ok,  but it's not 50/50 the pair will be successful.   Actually,  the odds of Foles being better than the second qb drafted are pretty high

[Indeee]

I really hope the Colts do not trade up. 

 

Just hold and at worst take Levis who might be the best of all the top 3. 

 

IF I HAD TO take QB this year. I think it would be Levis, Stroud, and Richardson in that order for me. The height thing is really bothering me about Bryce.

 

Stay at 4 regardless. 

 

 

[GoColts8818]

8 hours ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

The new AZ coach has had nothing but praise for Murray. I doubt they will draft a QB. Plus he is defensive coach. I won’t be surprised if they take one in second though like eagles as insurance.

He meant wild card as in Arizona could trade with someone that wants a QB not that AZ will take a QB.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

1 hour ago, GoColts8818 said:

He meant wild card as in Arizona could trade with someone that wants a QB not that AZ will take a QB.

Yeah that too. Carolina could trade players to cardinals and then they are sitting pretty to trade to one with bears. Something similar bills did. But not sure Arizona would do that as they need a edge with watts retirement and Anderson will probably be there at 3. Depends on who bears take if they don’t move down past 4. If bears move to four Andreson will be there for cardinals. So one of the best players in the draft matches cardinals need. That could change if panthers offered burns to cardinals though.

[richard pallo]

8 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Yeah that too. Carolina could trade players to cardinals and then they are sitting pretty to trade to one with bears. Something similar bills did. But not sure Arizona would do that as they need a edge with watts retirement and Anderson will probably be there at 3. Depends on who bears take if they don’t move down past 4. If bears move to four Andreson will be there for cardinals. So one of the best players in the draft matches cardinals need. That could change if panthers offered burns to cardinals though.

If I’m the Panthers I would trade Burns as part of a package to move up for a quarterback.  Reich knows which position is the most important.  He could get into the top three.  That’s a no brainer for me.  

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

12 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

If I’m the Panthers I would trade Burns as part of a package to move up for a quarterback.  Reich knows which position is the most important.  He could get into the top three.  That’s a no brainer for me.  

The thing is though it panthers move to 3 that means bears get less from panthers. So it really doesn’t benefit bears that much. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

They were talking about quarterbacks today on one of the podcasts and mentioned how 3 cone is really important for these quarterbacks.  With the way mobile quarterbacks are taking over the league I kind of agree with that.

[richard pallo]

9 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

The thing is though it panthers move to 3 that means bears get less from panthers. So it really doesn’t benefit bears that much. 

I think Panthers would be thrilled with the 3rd pick just to pick a quarterback.  I can see Reich being very happy with a chance to get Richardson or Levis. 

[csmopar]

I’d rather stay put honestly. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

1 minute ago, richard pallo said:

I think Panthers would be thrilled with the 3rd pick just to pick a quarterback.  I can see Reich being very happy with a chance to get Richardson or Levis. 

I think panthers could still get stroud or Levis if they moved to five. Geno has not been resigned yet so that will be something to watch. They could decide to draft then bring Geno back after they meet with these quarterbacks. 

[NewColtsFan]

4 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

I think Panthers would be thrilled with the 3rd pick just to pick a quarterback.  I can see Reich being very happy with a chance to get Richardson or Levis. 

You’re also assuming Arizona is willing to trade back from 3 to 9.    And maybe they will.   But that’s a big assumption now.  

[GwinnettColt]

The Bears (fans and talking heads) really want Indy to trade up but I've heard Taylor's name thrown around as bait.  IMO, it would cost too much.  I want to keep our good players and I don't want to trade up for this year's Bo Callahan.  

[richard pallo]

8 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

You’re also assuming Arizona is willing to trade back from 3 to 9.    And maybe they will.   But that’s a big assumption now.  

I’m assuming they would include Burns as part of the trade so who knows.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

12 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

You’re also assuming Arizona is willing to trade back from 3 to 9.    And maybe they will.   But that’s a big assumption now.  

The only way that happens would be if they got burns. Then they replace watt and don’t need Anderson.

[Patrick Miller]

I wonder if Kenny Moore could be part of a trade package with the Bears?

[richard pallo]

1 minute ago, Patrick Miller said:

I wonder if Kenny Moore could be part of a trade package with the Bears?

I would think his name would be brought up among others.  Ballard trying to hold onto his picks.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

5 minutes ago, Patrick Miller said:

I wonder if Kenny Moore could be part of a trade package with the Bears?

He might help us not have to give up a third rounder on 24 or something like that. If it helps the pick compensation I can see it.  With Bradley bring back he just doesn’t fit.

[Patrick Miller]

9 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

He might help us not have to give up a third rounder on 24 or something like that. If it helps the pick compensation I can see it.  With Bradley bring back he just doesn’t fit.

That’s what I was thinking. Moore is gone anyway….might as well include him in the trade. Eberflus might go for that.

[csmopar]

31 minutes ago, GwinnettColt said:

The Bears (fans and talking heads) really want Indy to trade up but I've heard Taylor's name thrown around as bait.  IMO, it would cost too much.  I want to keep our good players and I don't want to trade up for this year's Bo Callahan.  

Few posters will understand that 

[ChuggaBeer]

I'm more worried about Seattle trading up.    They have a lot of draft power 

[crazycolt1]

2 hours ago, csmopar said:

I’d rather stay put honestly. 

I agree.  There seems to be this idea that moving up 3 spots is worth a kings ransom to the Bears. I hope Ballard dont fall for it.  

[Moosejawcolt]

On 2/27/2023 at 7:56 AM, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

The new AZ coach has had nothing but praise for Murray. I doubt they will draft a QB. Plus he is defensive coach. I won’t be surprised if they take one in second though like eagles as insurance.

Prediction time. Murray is not coming back til late next year from what I hear. I have never ever been a Murray fan and that extension was a joke and i called it at time.  I bet Zona is line for the number 1 pick in 2024 and Murray is gone.  I think they realize that contract was a mistake and I believe if they cut him and/or trade him, they can after 2 years

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

13 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Prediction time. Murray is not coming back til late next year from what I hear. I have never ever been a Murray fan and that extension was a joke and i called it at time.  I bet Zona is line for the number 1 pick in 2024 and Murray is gone.  I think they realize that contract was a mistake and I believe if they cut him and/or trade him, they can after 2 years

My guess is cardinals might draft a QB in second round to start season and insurance in case Murray comes back and plays bad. I was thinking hooker if he will be ready by camp but not sure that would be smart. Maybe there is another QB they can take in that range.

[TomDiggs]

Apologies in advance for the long post. But wanted to lay out the numbers for a possible trade-up. 

 

 

I know that Colts fans really do not want to hear this, but if the Colts trade up for anything less than 1.04, 2.04 and 2024's 1st round pick, then they win out HUGE from a historical perspective on the trade regardless of what it is.

 

I have seen tons of Bears' fans and draft analysts putting out some crazy trade packages so i took it upon myself to analyze the 6 trades since 2010 that involved a team moving up in or into the top-3 for a QB.

 

Those 6 instances were for: Trey Lance (2021), Sam Darnold (2018), Mitchell Trubisky (2017), Jared Goff (2016), Carson Wentz (2016) and Robert Griffin III (2010).

 

I looked at these through two draft value charts for picks. The traditional Jimmy Johnson chart (where pick 1.01 is 3000 points) and the modern-day Rich Hill chart (where pick 1.01 is 1000 points). 

 

I also valued the future picks two different ways (since every nfl varies how they value future picks on a chart vs current picks). I valued a future pick as the X.16 of the round (how some teams value the pick putting it right in the middle of the round) and i also valued the pick as the X.32 pick (how some teams value a future pick equal to the last pick of the current year's draft).

 

Here is what i can tell you came through clear as can be:

 

1) There is not perfect formula

2) There are, however, formulas that come closest (based on the draft chart and these 6 trades and how they shook out)

3) The formula that comes the closest is generally the Jimmy Johnson traditional formula with a future pick being equal to the X.32 of the current draft. This has a correlation of 1.11 (in other words it is about 11% more capital given up than a pick is worth. If it were 1.00 it would be a perfectly even swap calculator). 

 

 

What does this all mean?

 

The four calculators and the 6 historical deals resulted in anywhere from an 11% to a 42% average overpay. And individual deals ranged from -16% (a great deal where you gave up less capital than the 1.01 was worth) to +97% (where you overpaid by almost double what the pick chart says it is worth).

 

The average overpay was 26%.

 

So this basically means that if you are trading up to 1.01 you should expect to pay probably around 25-30% more than the pick is worth on the draft value chart.

 

Since the Jimmy Johnson pick chart w X.32 had the closest correlation to the most recent 12+ years of deals within the top 3 this means that the Colts would likely need to pay:

 

1.01 (3000 pts)  x 1.20 (for simplicity's sake) = 3600 points

 

Colts pick values:

 

1.04- 1800 pts

2.04- 550 pts

2024 1st- 600 pts 

 

Total- 2950 pts

 

Those three premium picks together only equal 2950 points. So even doing that deal where we give up this year's high 2 and next year's 1st would mean we still are getting a good deal compared to the 3000-point 1.01 pick without the historical 20-30% overpay. One could argue that even having to include the 2025 1st as well would get us to right around that 3600-point mark (which to me is insane but i am just saying what the numbers say). 

 

 

I have been banging the table repeatedly that i hope we stay put and dont trade up due to the cost. I have also said i really don't want to move that 2.04 this year where a great player will be there and i really, really do not want to move a future 1 in what should be a loaded class next year. 

 

The reality is that if the Colt do feel they need to move up to get their guy, they likely have to give at least this year's 2 and next year's 1 at a minimum. 

 

It really doesn't matter that Chicago could trade down to 4 and still get a guy they would take at 1, etc etc. While that is nice pie-in-the-sky thinking for fan bases and logical thought, history is there to teach us for the future. And history says that historically you are giving up even or a 20-30% premium to move up within the top 3 for a QB and that logic goes out the window in these trades. And that means we are not moving up for a 2nd and Kenny Moore or any other type of random thoughts people try to compile. 

 

Sorry for the long post, but i wanted to give some honest level-setting to our fan base so those that want to move up understand the actual cost and those that do not want to understand that if cost precludes us from moving up we could stay still and get the 3rd or 4th best QB when other teams likely do move up to 1.01 or 1.03 or both.

 

I also say this so that if we do move up and it costs anything less than this year's 1 and 2 and next year's 1 then we all sing praises to our front office for it. Heck the numbers says even giving up this year's 1 and 2 and next year's 1 would be having a historically good trade where we actually gave less than the pick is worth. 

 

 

[coltsfeva]

On 2/27/2023 at 8:56 AM, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

The new AZ coach has had nothing but praise for Murray. I doubt they will draft a QB. Plus he is defensive coach. I won’t be surprised if they take one in second though like eagles as insurance.

 I didn’t mean they would take a QB. They could trade down with a team that needs a QB and pick up draft picks 

[indykmj]

Depending on how the Carter situation pans out, assuming the Bears want one of 

either him or Anderson, CHIC may no longer be able to risk dropping down to #4.

 

If they need to make sure they get Anderson, # 2 is as far down as they can 

move (otherwise, AZ likely grabs him at #3). 

[GoColts8818]

1 hour ago, indykmj said:

Depending on how the Carter situation pans out, assuming the Bears want one of 

either him or Anderson, CHIC may no longer be able to risk dropping down to #4.

 

If they need to make sure they get Anderson, # 2 is as far down as they can 

move (otherwise, AZ likely grabs him at #3). 

Yeah the Carter thing could very well change things for the Bears and make them willing to stay at number one to get Anderson. If not I agree with you the furthest they might be willing to move back might be number two unless the Cardinals makes a trade to a QB needy team first.

[Boondoggle]

On 2/26/2023 at 9:03 AM, Moosejawcolt said:

How do  u for see the Colts moving past the Texans??

I don't think the Texans will seriously attempt to move up. They're sitting in a good spot.

[Lifetime Colt]

I would prefer not to trade up to #1, given the draft capital it would take, there are areas to be addressed in the draft that are too important. I would trade up to #3 with Arizona, first guarantees one of the top 3 QB's, AZ takes no risk knowing the Colts and Texans will presumably take a QB. If Chicago trades out of #1, they have Seattle, maybe, Possible Panthers, leaving them with either #5, or #9 as their first pic, so say goodbye to at least one of  the 2 top defensive players, at #9, both will be gone. AZ would possibly be good with #4 pick in 2023 plus maybe #3 2024, or some combination, not giving up #35 ( which could be huge in addressing a real need with a good player, and #80 as well).

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

On 3/1/2023 at 3:31 PM, indykmj said:

Depending on how the Carter situation pans out, assuming the Bears want one of 

either him or Anderson, CHIC may no longer be able to risk dropping down to #4.

 

If they need to make sure they get Anderson, # 2 is as far down as they can 

move (otherwise, AZ likely grabs him at #3). 

Long  time eagles scout here.  Bears staying at one would be good for colts.

 

[Moosejawcolt]

On 2/27/2023 at 6:06 PM, richard pallo said:

If I’m the Panthers I would trade Burns as part of a package to move up for a quarterback.  Reich knows which position is the most important.  He could get into the top three.  That’s a no brainer for me.  

Like I said. Watch the Panther and Raiders  in free agency.  If they go qb that will tell me a lot about this group of qbs. 

5 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Long  time eagles scout here.  Bears staying at one would be good for colts.

 

The interest won't be there. They will pick number 1

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

21 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Like I said. Watch the Panther and Raiders  in free agency.  If they go qb that will tell me a lot about this group of qbs. 

The interest won't be there. They will pick number 1

It won’t mean nothing. They may feel they are to low for a QB and don’t want to move up that far.

[MikChiken]

3 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

It won’t mean nothing. They may feel they are to low for a QB and don’t want to move up that far.

And even if it did mean something related to the QBs.. it’s just their opinion lol. I’m not sure we want to take notes from either of those teams

[Jackie Daytona]

On 2/27/2023 at 9:56 PM, crazycolt1 said:

I agree.  There seems to be this idea that moving up 3 spots is worth a kings ransom to the Bears. I hope Ballard dont fall for it.  

He won't likely.  Ballard doesn't lose trades value wise.  Think what you will of his drafting consistency, but he doesn't overpay on the open market.....Bears fans are delusional as all get out.  They think they own the first pick in a year where Luck, Manning,. Brady, are all coming out ...and there are a few other QBs who may end up being Joe Montana and John Elway.  What maroons.....

 

There's not even one surefire day one QB and they want the largest deal of all time for the pick they backed into in an average looking draft cycle....lol.

 

 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

22 minutes ago, Mick12Maher said:

And even if it did mean something related to the QBs.. it’s just their opinion lol. I’m not sure we want to take notes from either of those teams

Right. I think it’s funny fans get worked up about quarterbacks. Because even scouts get it wrong . Teams evaluate beat way they can then it’s a crap shoot. Teams also look for different things.

[Jackie Daytona]

49 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Like I said. Watch the Panther and Raiders  in free agency.  If they go qb that will tell me a lot about this group of qbs. 

The interest won't be there. They will pick number 1

I don't think anyone needs to give up much to get to #1.....  Compared to what some think.  I agree the supply comes close to matching the demand in the top 4-7 picks as for QBs.  

 

 

[Myles]

8 hours ago, Jackie Daytona said:

I don't think anyone needs to give up much to get to #1.....  Compared to what some think.  I agree the supply comes close to matching the demand in the top 4-7 picks as for QBs.  

 

 

That may be true if they trade with Houston, but to move to #4 they would want a kings ransom since they would most likely be losing out on Anderson.  With Carter in question, Anderson seems to be the best player in the draft.   If Arizona stays put, they will take Anderson at #3 if Chicago trades down to #4.  It'll be interesting to see if Arizona trades down on draft night.