In good hands to find our next QB?

[jimmy g]

20 hours ago, Patrick Miller said:

I think we are either taking a QB at 13 or moving up to take one. Just a gut feeling.

Anthony Gordon. Unless Castonzo retires?

[LockeDown]

Yes. We have Chris Ballard, Ed Dodds, Frank Reich plus a whole room full of scouts.  I trust them.  I think that whole room knows JBs ceiling now and they will pick someone who doesn’t have his inherent weaknesses. If nobody in the draft is better than JB then they won’t pick one. Simple right?

[a06cc]

11 minutes ago, LockeDown said:

Yes. We have Chris Ballard, Ed Dodds, Frank Reich plus a whole room full of scouts.  I trust them.  I think that whole room knows JBs ceiling now and they will pick someone who doesn’t have his inherent weaknesses. If nobody in the draft is better than JB then they won’t pick one. Simple right?

That’s exactly what he said. He isn’t reaching or picking someone just to pick them.

[superrep1967]

On 2/6/2020 at 7:04 PM, CR91 said:

 

We're not that bad. We'd have to legit tank.

All we have to do to do that is keep Brissett at QB.

[superrep1967]

11 hours ago, lincolndefan said:

 

Would be a great mistake! IMO

I agree I think you learn by doing not watching. 

[WifiGuy]

On 2/6/2020 at 5:56 PM, CR91 said:

Dodds was with the Seahawks when they drafted Russell Wilson

 

Ballard was with the chiefs when they drafted Patrick Mahomes

 

Reich was with the eagles when they drafted Carson Wentz

 

Well Carson Wentz sucks so that int good for Colts fans if this is a standard of which to judge 

[CR91]

2 minutes ago, WifiGuy said:

Well Carson Wentz sucks so that int good for Colts fans if this is a standard of which to judge 

 

He didn't suck when Reich was there

[WifiGuy]

11 hours ago, Chloe6124 said:

Who says we will waste another year with Jacoby if a rookie sits behind him a year. We weren’t that far off last year. It’s not like we got blown out all year. With just a few plays here and there and better kicker with Jacoby and Hilton not getting injured we would of made the playoffs.

then why are you so obsessed with drafting a QB? 

1 minute ago, CR91 said:

 

He didn't suck when Reich was there

Dude he has always sucked 

[CR91]

1 minute ago, WifiGuy said:

Dude he has always sucked 

 

Dude no he didn't. He was having an MVP season before he got hurt in the eagles super bowl year

[WifiGuy]

3 minutes ago, CR91 said:

 

Dude no he didn't. He was having an MVP season before he got hurt in the eagles super bowl year

so..... he forgot how to play QB once Frank went to Indy?   Give me a break!!!! Or otherwise Reich needs to be making a billion dollars   OVER RATED as hell

[CR91]

28 minutes ago, WifiGuy said:

so..... he forgot how to play QB once Frank went to Indy?   Give me a break!!!! Or otherwise Reich needs to be making a billion dollars   OVER RATED as hell

 

No he's been injured and his weapons were falling like flies

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

46 minutes ago, WifiGuy said:

then why are you so obsessed with drafting a QB? 

Dude he has always sucked 

Because like I said I don’t think Jacoby has a high enough ceiling. I am ok drafting a guy and letting Jacoby start again. I just want to see the future in the team. But there is no doubt he will improve some with better and healthier weapons.

[Imgrandojji]

6 hours ago, lincolndefan said:

 

Sorry, i didn't explain properly. I mean JB should not start. In fact, i believe he shouldn't be on the team next season.

Well, I can't say you're wrong, but consider this:  Whatever you get for moving on from Brissett won't be nearly as much as the value you have to spend to bring in a veteran QB who's maybe the difference from QB#25 to QB#18-12.  

 

THat marginal utility is probably not worth the cost in assets when we have Tyrod Taylor 2.0 already on the roster.

 

There's maybe 2-3 QB in the entire NFL that are both better than Brissett and attainable for a reasonable cost in cash and assets.  If we don't get those guys, I'll be all fo holding onto JB until this new QB, whether it be a draft pick or whether it be a successfully salvaged Swag, is ready to go.

 

Because that's another thing to consider.  Swag IS out there.  He IS talented.  We don't know how Ballard sees him exactly, but we do know he's had a million opportunities to cut him and has gone out of his way not to. 

 

We also have enough other needs (TE, DL, WR) that a high profile draft asset spent on a QB might be undesirable in light of what we already have on the roster.

 

Just saying, it's worth considering in light of the overall discussion we're having

[Yoshinator]

What most people are ignoring with Brissett is that his season is a tale of two halves, not one consistent performance. Which means you have to look at context. The 5-2 (or 5-3 start) was nice, but he had an 8 game sample size afterward where teams adjusted to him and he struggled. That's where we're at with him. Knowing that, and he hasn't adjusted back yet, we're looking at a 4-5 win season with Brissett next year considering he went 2-6 in the second half and struggled.

 

I'd get Dalton/Carr or Herbert/Love in the 1st round. If you draft Anthony Gordon, then build O-Line/D-Line and draft a RB mate with Mack. Then you can have a team ready when Brissett leaves.

[ojsglove]

1 hour ago, Imgrandojji said:

Well, I can't say you're wrong, but consider this:  Whatever you get for moving on from Brissett won't be nearly as much as the value you have to spend to bring in a veteran QB who's maybe the difference from QB#25 to QB#18-12.  

 

THat marginal utility is probably not worth the cost in assets when we have Tyrod Taylor 2.0 already on the roster.

 

There's maybe 2-3 QB in the entire NFL that are both better than Brissett and attainable for a reasonable cost in cash and assets.  If we don't get those guys, I'll be all fo holding onto JB until this new QB, whether it be a draft pick or whether it be a successfully salvaged Swag, is ready to go.

 

Because that's another thing to consider.  Swag IS out there.  He IS talented.  We don't know how Ballard sees him exactly, but we do know he's had a million opportunities to cut him and has gone out of his way not to. 

 

We also have enough other needs (TE, DL, WR) that a high profile draft asset spent on a QB might be undesirable in light of what we already have on the roster.

 

Just saying, it's worth considering in light of the overall discussion we're having

Totally agree, i've been saying the exact same thing.

[Jackie Daytona]

11 hours ago, Imgrandojji said:

2017:  3-13

2019: 7-9

 

Nope, no improvement at all.

 

Note the massive difference in team talent, coaching talent, etc... How many of those four wins were due to all of the improvements in his game? In what areas did he show substantial growth and development to Garner those wins this past year, as opposed to 2017?  

 

[EastStreet]

35 minutes ago, Imgrandojji said:

Well, I can't say you're wrong, but consider this:  Whatever you get for moving on from Brissett won't be nearly as much as the value you have to spend to bring in a veteran QB who's maybe the difference from QB#25 to QB#18-12.

This is very debatable. Depends on what you "need". For instance

 

Scenario A: We draft a rookie in the first two rounds. JB really doesn't provide ample "mentoring". Folks can harp on "leadership" all day long, but if I'm going to have a mentor at all, I want them to be a veteran (for example Rivers). And if they are a NFL veteran, chances are they have "leadership" qualities already. Give me a guy any day that's been successful over a decent period of time, over one that is mediocre but is great at "leadership".... 

 

Scenario B: We bring in a FA like Carr. He's only 28, so should at minimum 4 more years before age becomes a concern. If you bring him in to be your starter, why not let him mentor Kelly as he fills the back-up roll. 

35 minutes ago, Imgrandojji said:

THat marginal utility is probably not worth the cost in assets when we have Tyrod Taylor 2.0 already on the roster.

Brissett is currently set to be the 10th highest paid QB in 2020 at $21.5M... And most of that (14ish IIRC) is already guaranteed. So that leaves only about 7M in question.

 

Let's do the basic math on our QBs for this year (what is not guaranteed)...

JB - 7M (+14M guaranteed)

Hoyer - 4M (+1M guaranteed)

Kelly - 0.6M

Total non-guaranteed = $11.6ishM  (27ishM total)

 

In scenario A above, let's say we draft Love at 13, and sign him to a 4 year 16M contract (Haskins comparatively was drafted 15 last year and signed a 4 year 14M contract). Then let's say we sign Rivers to a two year 30M contract. Now we're paying basically 19M a year instead of 12/27ish, and have a better mentor for our rook QB.

 

In scenario B above, let's say we take Carr's contract over the next 3 years at around 20M per year, and we just keep Kelly to mentor behind Carr. We're only paying 21Mish..... 

 

Both of those IMO are better long term combined solutions (performance, mentor, backup) than having a Love/Brissett or Carr/Brissett combo. So I disagree on marginal utility, especailly considering our cap space. That's less than $10M delta in non-guaranteed, and actually cheaper than the guaranteed (I know we still have to pay the guarantees, just talking about run rate).

 

35 minutes ago, Imgrandojji said:

There's maybe 2-3 QB in the entire NFL that are both better than Brissett and attainable for a reasonable cost in cash and assets.  If we don't get those guys, I'll be all fo holding onto JB until this new QB, whether it be a draft pick or whether it be a successfully salvaged Swag, is ready to go.

See above, and also take a look at

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/all/quarterback/

There are many FA QBs I think that could be just as good as JB behind our OL with our running game in a back up role.

35 minutes ago, Imgrandojji said:

Because that's another thing to consider.  Swag IS out there.  He IS talented.  We don't know how Ballard sees him exactly, but we do know he's had a million opportunities to cut him and has gone out of his way not to. 

IMO, they won't keep 3 QBs on the active roster long term if they draft a QB, or bring one in as a FA. If we get out of camp without a lot of injuries, then maybe, but if we're battling the injury bug early, hard to see them keeping 3.

35 minutes ago, Imgrandojji said:

We also have enough other needs (TE, DL, WR) that a high profile draft asset spent on a QB might be undesirable in light of what we already have on the roster.

This is what kinda cracks me up. The worst performing unit out of the 5 is the passing game without a doubt. What we already have on the roster is a guy who ranks on average 27ish in the four core QB stats (YPG, AVG, QBR, compl%), a backup who has an 11 year career 52-34 TD to INT ratio and couldn't beat a bad Miami or Pitt team, and a wildcard with behavioral flags shooting out of his backside... lol.. And the behavioral wildcard is probably the one with the highest ceiling lol..... "what we already have on the roster" lol...

 

We aren't gong TE early, and may not take on at all this year IMO. If a guy like Kmet were there at 44, maybe.... WR depth is silly, so I can see Ballard taking advantage of value in the mid and later rounds. Both DL and QB can be had early.

 

35 minutes ago, Imgrandojji said:

Just saying, it's worth considering in light of the overall discussion we're having

Feels like you're grasping a little here. Is marginal "value" and "utility" now the new narrative for keeping JB?

[EastStreet]

12 hours ago, Imgrandojji said:

2017:  3-13

2019: 7-9

 

Nope, no improvement at all.

 

Team record does not equate to "good quaterback"

 

2017 was 4-11 by the way... And 2019 the team was 7-7 if we are talking games with JB starting or playing the majority in. 

 

If you look at his individual stats from 2017 and 2019, they're very similar. Some were a tiny bit better, some a tiny bit worse. He had a hell of a lot better OL in 2019 too, so really I'd expect the gains to be more.

 

[Stephen]

If we are picking  Lawrence  then frank Reich  is probably  fired

[Imgrandojji]

7 hours ago, Shafty138 said:

Note the massive difference in team talent, coaching talent, etc... How many of those four wins were due to all of the improvements in his game? In what areas did he show substantial growth and development to Garner those wins this past year, as opposed to 2017?  

 

The "massive difference" in team talent, coaching talent, etc resulted in Andrew Luck leading both the 2016 team and the 2018 team to the playoffs despite their obvious flaws.

 

Not necessarily saying you're dead wrong here, but the point you're making is hideously overblown

[Imgrandojji]

6 hours ago, EastStreet said:

. JB really doesn't provide ample "mentoring". 

you literally have no way of knowing this

 

6 hours ago, EastStreet said:

Scenario B: We bring in a FA like Carr. He's only 28, so should at minimum 4 more years before age becomes a concern. If you bring him in to be your starter, why not let him mentor Kelly as he fills the back-up roll. 

Carr costs assets we could be using to accomplish other objectives.  you can bet that Ballard will be aware of this.  He won't make moves just for the sake of making moves.  Which is basically what you're calling for.

 

6 hours ago, EastStreet said:

Brissett is currently set to be the 10th highest paid QB in 2020 at $21.5M... And most of that (14ish IIRC) is already guaranteed. So that leaves only about 7M in question.

Plus whatever it costs in draft assets to replace Brissett with another veteran, minus the return we get for Brissett himself, which as you note, is going to be pretty paltry for a number of reasons, including this one.

 

6 hours ago, EastStreet said:

 

 

Feels like you're grasping a little here. Is marginal "value" and "utility" now the new narrative for keeping JB?

Not sold on keeping JB.  Also not sold on making moves for the sake of making moves.

 

BTW your math is off.  You're ignoring the guaranteed portion of Brissett's and Hoyer's money.  Like you said, there's actually only about 11 mil of cap room in play right now, but you're ignoring the fact that guaranteed money also counts against the cap, so bringing in an expensive veteran like Carr or Rivers would result in some pretty significant dead cap until the end of this season.  The only way to clear that cap is to find a buyer for Brissett.  Do you see that happening?

 

We're kind of "pot committed" to Brissett for next year.

 

It's not an insurmountable issue, but it's worth thinking about.

[EastStreet]

14 minutes ago, Imgrandojji said:

The "massive difference" in team talent, coaching talent, etc resulted in Andrew Luck leading both the 2016 team and the 2018 team to the playoffs despite their obvious flaws.

 

Not necessarily saying you're dead wrong here, but the point you're making is hideously overblown

The 2016 team missed the playoffs.....

 

If you think the current talent isn't significantly better than the talent from 16 and 17, you're being disingenuous purely to spin more narrative.. 

[Imgrandojji]

8 hours ago, Jared Cisneros said:

What most people are ignoring with Brissett is that his season is a tale of two halves, not one consistent performance. Which means you have to look at context. The 5-2 (or 5-3 start) was nice, but he had an 8 game sample size afterward where teams adjusted to him and he struggled.

Or, like people who actually watched the games noticed, he got hurt in the Broncos game in week 8, when Von Miller pushed one of our OL into Brissett's knee.  Making you about half right, it was indeed "a tale of two halves."

[Yoshinator]

2 minutes ago, Imgrandojji said:

Or, like people who actually watched the games noticed, he got hurt in the Broncos game in week 8, when Von Miller pushed one of our OL into Brissett's knee.  Making you about half right, it was indeed "a tale of two halves."

Then, if that's true, it was incompetant by the FO to put him in while he was still injured instead of Hoyer or Kelly. So which is it, did other teams gameplan and adapt to Brissett, causing him to play worse, or did Ballard, Reich, and the Colts make a bad decision by letting him play 8 more games. I think you are just speculating on the injury, and if you stick to what you said, then you are blaming the Colts for allowing him to play injured. So which is it?

[EastStreet]

2 minutes ago, Imgrandojji said:

you literally have no way of knowing this

If you struggle with field vision, progressions, reading Ds, pre-snap changes.... it's pretty hard to mentor those things.... 

2 minutes ago, Imgrandojji said:

Carr costs assets we could be using to accomplish other objectives.  you can bet that Ballard will be aware of this.  He won't make moves just for the sake of making moves.  Which is basically what you're calling for.

No, it's not what I'm calling for. I suggest he'll be making moves because it's needed due to the obvious deficiencies of JB.

 

Every draft pick costs assets that could be used to accomplish other objectives. The biggest objective however should be upgrading the position that was clearly the worst on the team. As far as Carr is concerned, we have plenty of cap, so $ isn't an issue. If it only cost one early pick, that's not a steep price either. 

2 minutes ago, Imgrandojji said:

 

Plus whatever it costs in draft assets to replace Brissett with another veteran, minus the return we get for Brissett himself, which as you note, is going to be pretty paltry for a number of reasons, including this one.

If Brissett's return is paltry, that means he's not good. Enough said... 

2 minutes ago, Imgrandojji said:

 

Not sold on keeping JB.  Also not sold on making moves for the sake of making moves.

 

BTW your math is off.  You're ignoring the guaranteed portion of Brissett's and Hoyer's money.  Like you said, there's actually only about 11 mil of cap room in play right now, but you're ignoring the fact that guaranteed money also counts against the cap, so bringing in an expensive veteran like Carr or Rivers would result in some pretty significant dead cap until the end of this season.  The only way to clear that cap is to find a buyer for Brissett.  Do you see that happening?

I literally spelled out the guarantees. Brissett's guarantees are already locked in. We have plenty of space. Eating those guarantees for a year won't threaten our financial situation. Heck, we just gave Luck a huge parting gift, so eating money really isn't something Irsay is going to hinge a decision over.

2 minutes ago, Imgrandojji said:

 

We're kind of "pot committed" to Brissett for next year.

 

It's not an insurmountable issue, but it's worth thinking about.

It's no where near insurmountable, and far from pot committed. It's a waste of money, but they waste money all the time.

[Thunderbolt]

Since JB hasn't improved the last two seasons why start him at all? Trade JB and start the rookie QB that we draft this year so he can get some experience. He can do no worse ihan JB. Then, playoffs next year or beyond. 

[Moosejawcolt]

On 2/6/2020 at 4:56 PM, CR91 said:

Dodds was with the Seahawks when they drafted Russell Wilson

 

Ballard was with the chiefs when they drafted Patrick Mahomes

 

Reich was with the eagles when they drafted Carson Wentz

 

And as far as we know, none of the above mentioned had anything to do with drafting the qbs u listed.

[CR91]

1 hour ago, Moosejawcolt said:

And as far as we know, none of the above mentioned had anything to do with drafting the qbs u listed.

 

Dodds was on the scouting team as was Ballard and Reich was the OC. Pretty sure they would have had input.

 

[Moosejawcolt]

1 hour ago, CR91 said:

 

Dodds was on the scouting team as was Ballard and Reich was the OC. Pretty sure they would have had input.

 

Reid has said that Veach was pounding the table for Mahommes. Pederson was the head coach and offensive coordinator when Reich was with Philly.

[CR91]

Just now, Moosejawcolt said:

Reid has said that Veach was pounding the table for Mahommes. Pederson was the head coach and offensive coordinator when Reich was with Philly.

 

Still have to rely on your scouting. Reich was still part of the offensive game plan. 

[coming on strong]

On 2/7/2020 at 10:40 AM, stitches said:

Chad Kelly might be the path to us getting our next great QB indeed(Trevor Lawrence). 

ballard all ready found our next QB jordan love .  he followed him around all year watching him live and heavy rumors that he fell in love with him.   jordan reminds me of pat mahomes coming out of college  elite arm talent and mobile with questionable decision making skills remember pat got blasted coming out of college people said he would be a pick machine .

[Moosejawcolt]

6 hours ago, CR91 said:

 

Still have to rely on your scouting. Reich was still part of the offensive game plan. 

Reich and Ballard may have indeed been involved.  However, there is no information that supports your theory 

[CR91]

4 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Reich and Ballard may have indeed been involved.  However, there is no information that supports your theory 

 

No the scouts just sit and look pretty . It's their job to find players.

[masterlock]

On 2/6/2020 at 6:51 PM, danlhart87 said:

Trevor Lawrence.

If only. But I doubt the Colts will stink enough next year to get the No. 1 draft pick.

[shasta519]

On 2/8/2020 at 7:53 AM, Imgrandojji said:

you literally have no way of knowing this

 

Carr costs assets we could be using to accomplish other objectives.  you can bet that Ballard will be aware of this.  He won't make moves just for the sake of making moves.  Which is basically what you're calling for.

 

Plus whatever it costs in draft assets to replace Brissett with another veteran, minus the return we get for Brissett himself, which as you note, is going to be pretty paltry for a number of reasons, including this one.

 

Not sold on keeping JB.  Also not sold on making moves for the sake of making moves.

 

BTW your math is off.  You're ignoring the guaranteed portion of Brissett's and Hoyer's money.  Like you said, there's actually only about 11 mil of cap room in play right now, but you're ignoring the fact that guaranteed money also counts against the cap, so bringing in an expensive veteran like Carr or Rivers would result in some pretty significant dead cap until the end of this season.  The only way to clear that cap is to find a buyer for Brissett.  Do you see that happening?

 

We're kind of "pot committed" to Brissett for next year.

 

It's not an insurmountable issue, but it's worth thinking about.

They are not “pot committed”...JB’s a sunk cost...and his contract should not influence how the team upgrades the QB position...both in FA or the draft. 
 

I actually think they can save $9.M of it. So for $6-7M more in cap...you could likely get a better vet. 

[shasta519]

On 2/8/2020 at 10:47 AM, Moosejawcolt said:

And as far as we know, none of the above mentioned had anything to do with drafting the qbs u listed.

True...and Ballard wasn’t it with KC at that time. Veach was the main catalyst.

 

But Ballard was there for the discussions about moving on from Alex Smith...so it gives me confidence that he will do the same with JB.

[horseshoecrabs]

Maybe JB forgot his " Snickers Bars" after the beginning of last season, An he was just not himself. That theory could explain it. 

[NewColtsFan]

On 2/6/2020 at 5:44 PM, danlhart87 said:

Bold prediction 

 

TB finishes with the #1 pick and Colts finish #2. After months of Lawrence to TB speculation the Bucs surprise everyone and take Justin Fields leaving Lawrence to fall to the Colts.

And we’re going to finish with the second overall draft pick....   how?  Why?

 

Its a long way from 7-9 to 3-13 or whatever it would take.  

[NewColtsFan]

On 2/7/2020 at 6:32 PM, WifiGuy said:

Well Carson Wentz sucks so that int good for Colts fans if this is a standard of which to judge 

Are you familiar with the game of football?   Carson Wentz has never sucked.   Ever.

 

He’s had two problems....  one, he’s been hurt a lot.  Two, the team around him has gotten worse.   But Wentz is a very good quarterback.

 

I’m sorry you don’t know this. 

[Imgrandojji]

I do want to clarify one thing from my earlier posts. People were responding as if I want to keep Brissett and start him.  As if I think everything is fine.  obviously not the case.  Brissett looked like he was going to come through in the first half of the season, but hte undeniable fact is that the other half of the  season also happened.

 

All I'm arguing for is that if we want a QB to cover the season while we bring a draft pick up to speed, it's a better use of assets to start the guy we have until the rookie is ready, rather than to try to do everything at once, bring in a luxury starter and draft a high profile rookie too.

 

I get the feeling that we want to compete next year too, but if you spend too many assets trying to set up the perfect situation in any one position, it will rob us of the ability to field a balanced roster.  We have other desperate needs that we also need to focus on, besides QB. 

 

I'd rather roll with what we have plus one rookie QB in the first couple rounds, and pick up a meaty DE, another solid all round TE and a couple WR with some flash rather than throwing away the money and assets we need to do all these things trying to get cute in one area.