I Think I Know Exactly What's Going On In The Draft

[shakedownstreet]

15 hours ago, Pelt said:

Yep...

 

 

[rockywoj]

15 hours ago, csmopar said:

Gonna be funny to watch this forum implode when the Browns take Barkley and the Giants take Chubb...

Then I would be quite happy taking Nelson.  Celebration, not implosion.

[Narcosys]

17 hours ago, Clem-Dog said:

 

Cleveland can't guarantee that Denver or the Jets won't trade up for our 3rd.  They should know to expect the unexpected as there are no guarantees.  

They are guaranteed 1 of the top 3 qbs

[Defjamz26]

10 hours ago, LockeDown said:

  To have the 1st and 4th picks and that's not good enough?  They should sit tight and get 2 elite players, imo.  That's a home run. 

There’s no price for an elite QB though and they know the Jets and Broncos could trade in front of them and take their guy. That’s what the Bears did last year to get from 3 to 2.

[LockeDown]

25 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

There’s no price for an elite QB though and they know the Jets and Broncos could trade in front of them and take their guy. That’s what the Bears did last year to get from 3 to 2.

That's why I tak QB first and BPA 4th.  That's what I meant to say.  Nobody can jump you at  #1

[csmopar]

1 hour ago, rockywoj said:

Then I would be quite happy taking Nelson.  Celebration, not implosion.

Me too.  But 90 percent of this forum would implode if both Chubb and Barkley are gone

[King Colt]

2 hours ago, csmopar said:

Actually yes. 

Pics?

[Clem-Dog]

1 hour ago, Narcosys said:

They are guaranteed 1 of the top 3 qbs

The premise I responded to had Cleveland landing Barkley with the #1 pick.  Another poster speculated that Cleveland could just wait patiently at 4 for either Darnold or Rosen because the Colts won't select a QB, which is partially true, but didn't consider the Colts could simply trade down if this is how the scenario played out.  But you're right in that Cleveland would be guaranteed the third QB off the board.

[ColtsBlueFL]

20 hours ago, dw49 said:

 

Naa.. won't happen unless maybe Cleveland signs Cousins which is very doubtful. The other scenario would be they have 3 QB's all rated around the same. If they go Barkley , Giants go for a QB at 2 , the Colts are almost a lock to trade the pick to Denver or the Jets . So Cleveland ends u with the 3rd QB taken. A way (IMO) more likely scenario would be the Browns and Giants go QB with picks 1 and 2. If the Browns want Barkly they give the colts like a 3rd for moving down a spot. Or the Colts could draft Barkly and trade to Cleveland if they didn't "trust" Cleve to pick Barkley. Way , way better route for Cleveland to go than taking the RB first. 

 

BTW... there was some talk in rotoworld about Cleveland and Mayfield being a fit. Not that I agree but here it is......

 

Yahoo Sports' Charles Robinson reports there's "a fit developing" between the Browns and Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield.

"A lot of what he is as a player fits with John Dorsey," a league source told Robinson. "Just his makeup, John believes in building around those kinds of guys. I think he’s a strong candidate for the top pick after this week." Mayfield has been the best quarterback in Senior Bowl practices, outshining Wyoming's Josh Allen. His draft stock continues to trend up coming off a Heisman winning season. Despite size concerns, it won't be surprising if Mayfield ultimately lands in Cleveland with the first-overall pick.

 

19 hours ago, csmopar said:

Gonna be funny to watch this forum implode when the Browns take Barkley and the Giants take Chubb...

 

Baker Mayfield catapulted his way into a late 1st round grade at the Senior Bowl (especially in practice / drills)  and Allen dropped a lot as well.  If Dorsey likes Mayfield a lot, I can see them taking Barkley at #1, then Mayfield at #4 and not have to move/trade anything.  Maybe even trade down toward middle late 1st round and get some picks and Mayfield.  Remember, this is Chris Ballards mentor running the show in Cleveland now, not moneyball geeks. I certainly doubt anyone will trade up to #3 for Mayfield. It just depends upon if the report is true, but make no mistake. Mayfield impressed a lot of teams this past week; even if (like Drew Brees) he doesn't check off all the boxes (height).

 

17 hours ago, HectorRoberts said:

Coming in to the draft the Browns will  have their heart set on one of the available qbs, I doubt they pass on him at number 1 to take Barkley, especially if they think that we have our heart set on Barkley and if they take him we would most likely trade down to a qb needy team that may possibly take their number 1 qb prospects before they have a chance to pick at #4

 

I agree, if Mayfield really is "Not" their guy.  Otherwise, it could unfold a lot differently; one or two ways is listed above.

[IinD]

Or a team with an old QB can jump up to grab a guy. Just like some have said, you can't figure out the draft.

 

What if NO says let's jump up for Brees' eventual replacement, Minny thinks we have 3 QB's with heavy question marks, the Chargers start thinking life after Jim Carey or Pitt for life after big Ben.

 

Never know what will happen. Will definitely be fun.

[crazycolt1]

29 minutes ago, IinD said:

Or a team with an old QB can jump up to grab a guy. Just like some have said, you can't figure out the draft.

 

What if NO says let's jump up for Brees' eventual replacement, Minny thinks we have 3 QB's with heavy question marks, the Chargers start thinking life after Jim Carey or Pitt for life after big Ben.

 

Never know what will happen. Will definitely be fun.

Exactly. I guess if enough scenarios are put out someone will hit on what happens. Then we get to hear :I told you so". 

[coltsfansince65]

20 hours ago, csmopar said:

Gonna be funny to watch this forum implode when the Browns take Barkley and the Giants take Chubb...

That also could make our pick at 3 more valuable for some team who wants to trade up for their next franchise QB.

[Zoltan]

23 hours ago, crazycolt1 said:

I have said all along that the Browns will take Barkley at #1. They have 12 picks in this draft and can afford to trade and deal in numerous ways. If they want Barkley they would take him at #1 maybe thinking the Giants will take him at #2 if they didn't pull the trigger. Then if there was a QB at #3 they might deal with the Colts for that pick?

I agree, I think the Browns are gonna take Barkley at #1, but what I'm thinking is that they don't want Darnold or Rosen and that they are gonna draft Mayfield at #4. I'm also not discounting the Giants taking Chubb at #2 if they believe in Webb (3rd rounder last year) has potential to take over for Manning.

[dgambill]

20 hours ago, BProland85 said:

 

With the huge needs at QB for those 2 teams they’d be pretty dumb to do so. I can’t see the Browns passing on the guy they want at QB 1st overall.

Indeed....you should never pass on a franchise qb. Anything could happen at 2 and 3. There is no I’ll settle for this qb. You have one you love you take him at #1.  Qb is iffinitely more important than a rb. They have suffered like 30 years without a qb. You can’t take a chance your qb will still be there. They aren’t going to roll the dice on a qb. If they want Barkley there is a very good chance that you just move up from the 4 spot and draft 1 and 2. They have the draft capital to do that. Thing is...rb isn’t even a top need for them. They could bring in a vet or bring back Crowell. They have huge holes in their secondary...Fitzpatrick actually makes more sense...they likely need a new LT with Thomas contemplating retirement. They have a bunch of picks and can move back up if they’ve want or use one of those 2nd rounders on a runner there. They went with an athlete to play in the secondary last year with Peppers but they would be better off going with a complete player like Minkah then Focusing a whole draft around a running back. Get your qb...and then there will be an elite player at 4...maybe even the back you covet. Old Cleveland would do the RB #1...Dorsey I think is better than that. 

[csmopar]

6 hours ago, King Colt said:

Pics?

Cant... classified

[csmopar]

4 hours ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

 

 

Baker Mayfield catapulted his way into a late 1st round grade at the Senior Bowl (especially in practice / drills)  and Allen dropped a lot as well.  If Dorsey likes Mayfield a lot, I can see them taking Barkley at #1, then Mayfield at #4 and not have to move/trade anything.  Maybe even trade down toward middle late 1st round and get some picks and Mayfield.  Remember, this is Chris Ballards mentor running the show in Cleveland now, not moneyball geeks. I certainly doubt anyone will trade up to #3 for Mayfield. It just depends upon if the report is true, but make no mistake. Mayfield impressed a lot of teams this past week; even if (like Drew Brees) he doesn't check off all the boxes (height).

 

 

I agree, if Mayfield really is "Not" their guy.  Otherwise, it could unfold a lot differently; one or two ways is listed above.

Well not only that but something nobody on here has mentioned... with several decent proven QBs hitting the market, such as Bradford, potentially Bridgewater, heck even Bortes may not be back with the Jags next year.  Not to mention Kaepernick, it's possible they sign one or those. Then draft Barkey at one.

[masnerj]

1 minute ago, csmopar said:

Well not only that but something nobody on here has mentioned... with several decent proven QBs hitting the market, such as Bradford, potentially Bridgewater, heck even Bortes may not be back with the Jags next year.  Not to mention Kaepernick, it's possible they sign one or those. Then draft Barkey at one.

 

Not only is that possible, it is something that we as Colts fans should be strongly rooting for. The best thing that can happen for us in the draft is if the Browns (or Giants but this is pretty unlikely) draft Barkley #1 overall. That puts us in PRIME position to trade down (and get a HUGE haul) and still get the player(s) that we wanted originally or were super high on our board. 

[csmopar]

11 minutes ago, masnerj said:

 

Not only is that possible, it is something that we as Colts fans should be strongly rooting for. The best thing that can happen for us in the draft is if the Browns (or Giants but this is pretty unlikely) draft Barkley #1 overall. That puts us in PRIME position to trade down (and get a HUGE haul) and still get the player(s) that we wanted originally or were super high on our board. 

Trade down to who? If the Browns take Barkley and the Giants take Chubb, were not taking a QB, so we're likely to go OL, the Browns at 4 won't take a second QB, meaning those other teams have a shot at the top  QBs from 5th in back

[crazycolt1]

2 minutes ago, csmopar said:

Trade down to who? If the Browns take Barkley and the Giants take Chubb, were not taking a QB, so we're likely to go OL, the Browns at 4 won't take a second QB, meaning those other teams have a shot at the top  QBs from 5th in back

It's mind boggling thinking of all the different scenarios that could go down between now and draft time.

One thing we do know is the Browns hold most the cards going in with 5 picks in the first two rounds and 12 overall. If they play their cards just right they could end up with a huge haul. Dorsey is a pretty smart dude so the days of the Browns being the laughing stock of the NFL could be numbered.

[Hoose]

6 hours ago, Clem-Dog said:

The premise I responded to had Cleveland landing Barkley with the #1 pick.  Another poster speculated that Cleveland could just wait patiently at 4 for either Darnold or Rosen because the Colts won't select a QB, which is partially true, but didn't consider the Colts could simply trade down if this is how the scenario played out.  But you're right in that Cleveland would be guaranteed the third QB off the board.

Which is why the Browns get their QB with their first pick and then trade up for the 3 pick to get Barkley. More than worth one of their top 2nd rounders to get Barkley. This is why you accumulate draft picks. So you can move around like that. The Browns get two transformational players. And...The Colts make out like bandits. And can still trade down again if there is a frenzy for another QB. The key: get a high second rounder, perhaps two,  and still get your man. No deals that put Chubb in jeopardy. 

[csmopar]

9 minutes ago, Hoose said:

Which is why the Browns get their QB with their first pick and then trade up for the 3 pick to get Barkley. More than worth one of their top 2nd rounders to get Barkley. This is why you accumulate draft picks. So you can move around like that. The Browns get two transformational players. And...The Colts make out like bandits. And can still trade down again if there is a frenzy for another QB. The key: get a high second rounder, perhaps two,  and still get your man. No deals that put Chubb in jeopardy. 

And if the Giants decide to grab Chubb... the Giants are not a lock to take a QB

[csmopar]

12 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

It's mind boggling thinking of all the different scenarios that could go down between now and draft time.

One thing we do know is the Browns hold most the cards going in with 5 picks in the first two rounds and 12 overall. If they play their cards just right they could end up with a huge haul. Dorsey is a pretty smart dude so the days of the Browns being the laughing stock of the NFL could be numbered.

Yeah I agree

[Hoose]

1 minute ago, csmopar said:

And if the Giants decide to grab Chubb... the Giants are not a lock to take a QB

Well, I think they take a QB. Eli is on his last legs. 

[csmopar]

1 minute ago, Hoose said:

Well, I think they take a QB. Eli is on his last legs. 

Perhaps. But it's entirely possible they wait for the 2nd round and grab someone to coach up behind Eli for one more season

[crazycolt1]

3 minutes ago, csmopar said:

And if the Giants decide to grab Chubb... the Giants are not a lock to take a QB

I agree. Eli still has some contract left so they could hold off?  As deep as the RB class is this year they could still pick up one in later rounds.

[crazycolt1]

4 minutes ago, Hoose said:

Well, I think they take a QB. Eli is on his last legs. 

Not so fast. Eli didn't have any weapons on his team at all last year after losing both his starting receivers. Add the fact they didn't have a RB on their roster who wouldn't struggle making another teams roster.

He still has some talent.

Shurmer has already said Eli has 2 years left and they are not going to eat 18 million dollars on a cap hit over the next two years.

[crazycolt1]

13 minutes ago, csmopar said:

Perhaps. But it's entirely possible they wait for the 2nd round and grab someone to coach up behind Eli for one more season

Very true. Shurmur seems to be pretty good at coaching QBs up.

[Hoose]

Eli has been slowly slipping for a couple of years. Yes, he had a boatload of injuries to his receivers this season, but he’s not the same player. And the Giants are in a rare position to grab their QB of the future right now. Let him apprentice for a year or so. Aaron Rogers style. That’s my guess on how they approach things. And if not..... the Colts are still in great position to trade back to one of the numerous  QB starved teams. 

[ColtsBlueFL]

3 hours ago, csmopar said:

Well not only that but something nobody on here has mentioned... with several decent proven QBs hitting the market, such as Bradford, potentially Bridgewater, heck even Bortes may not be back with the Jags next year.  Not to mention Kaepernick, it's possible they sign one or those. Then draft Barkey at one.

 

Exactly.  I actually made a list of them for my own perusal, I'll paste it here-

 

Unlikely to be available FA's-

 

Drew Brees (stays a Saint)
Jimmy Garoppolo (Gets franchise 49er money)

Potential QB FA's -

 

Kirk Cousins
Case Keenum
Teddy Bridgewater
Sam Bradford
A.J. McCarron

Alex Smith (trade?)
Josh McCown

 

Interesting choice(s) Minnesota has this off season as far as QB goes...

 

And when it comes to QB's  and the draft.  nobody knows what team falls in love with what QB and will sometimes move mountains (or lots of picks anyway) to get 'their' guy.  And teams aren't like us fans, They don't' list 4 QB's for their draft slot and say we'll roll the dice take what is left  at that same slot.

[masnerj]

People are seriously too in love with Chubb and Barkley. Don't get me too wrong...Chubb is an excellent player who will probably be an above-average DE at the next level and gets 10+ sacks a year. BUT he is NOT a generational talent who like Von Miller changes a franchise almost. He is simply a very well-rounded and strong candidate to go top 5 in most drafts. 

 

That being said, who CARES if we miss out on Chubb and Barkley if both Cleveland and Giants pick non-QBs with their top 2 picks (a mistake in my opinion for them). We practically become almost #1 overall pick holders WITHOUT a need for a QB (presuming Luck is healthy and coming back). And with an above-average draft for QBs with three interesting candidates to go top among the QBs, we would have a very tremendous haul (think extra first round and second picks). 

 

We could go down a couple of spots, still pick a guy like Quentin Nelson or Minkah Fitzpatrick (or if you are really desperate grab Davenport if we drop even more) who are almost sure to become above-average players in the NFL and have solid careers. 

 

Extra first and second rounders this year and next year is how you accelerate the re-build we are currently in. Yes Luck is coming back. But we are going for a dynasty (Seahawks, Patriots, etc both teams that should sound familiar with our staff) and for that sustained success (multiple Lombardis) you need to develop a strong base through the draft and then pair that up with an excellent QB like Luck in his prime.  

[King Colt]

7 hours ago, csmopar said:

Cant... classified

Missing text messages?

[csmopar]

5 hours ago, King Colt said:

Missing text messages?

Yeah, they were on the email server I thought I had wiped clean....

 

[Hoose]

15 hours ago, dgambill said:

Indeed....you should never pass on a franchise qb. Anything could happen at 2 and 3. There is no I’ll settle for this qb. You have one you love you take him at #1.  Qb is iffinitely more important than a rb. They have suffered like 30 years without a qb. You can’t take a chance your qb will still be there. They aren’t going to roll the dice on a qb. If they want Barkley there is a very good chance that you just move up from the 4 spot and draft 1 and 2. They have the draft capital to do that. Thing is...rb isn’t even a top need for them. They could bring in a vet or bring back Crowell. They have huge holes in their secondary...Fitzpatrick actually makes more sense...they likely need a new LT with Thomas contemplating retirement. They have a bunch of picks and can move back up if they’ve want or use one of those 2nd rounders on a runner there. They went with an athlete to play in the secondary last year with Peppers but they would be better off going with a complete player like Minkah then Focusing a whole draft around a running back. Get your qb...and then there will be an elite player at 4...maybe even the back you covet. Old Cleveland would do the RB #1...Dorsey I think is better than that. 

Well said. 

[Smonroe]

11 hours ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

 

Exactly.  I actually made a list of them for my own perusal, I'll paste it here-

 

Unlikely to be available FA's-

 

Drew Brees (stays a Saint)
Jimmy Garoppolo (Gets franchise 49er money)

Potential QB FA's -

 

Kirk Cousins
Case Keenum
Teddy Bridgewater
Sam Bradford
A.J. McCarron

Alex Smith (trade?)
Josh McCown

 

Interesting choice(s) Minnesota has this off season as far as QB goes...

 

And when it comes to QB's  and the draft.  nobody knows what team falls in love with what QB and will sometimes move mountains (or lots of picks anyway) to get 'their' guy.  And teams aren't like us fans, They don't' list 4 QB's for their draft slot and say we'll roll the dice take what is left  at that same slot.

 

This is all fun to talk about now, but you're pointing out that the draft is going to look completely different after free agency.

 

Those QBs will have homes at that time, trades will be made, etc.  I still think that even if Cleveland gets a FA like AJ or Keenum, they'll take the best rated QB in the draft.

 

I'm still not sold on the Giants taking one at 2.  There are several guys they could get in the 2nd round to sit behind Eli for a couple years.

[lollygagger8]

Chubb or trade down 

[King Colt]

3 hours ago, csmopar said:

Yeah, they were on the email server I thought I had wiped clean....

 

Ford is the number one selling truck in America. I have never owned one but the fact  remains. Problem is they are  the #1 stolen truck in America followed by Chevy.

[Zoltan]

On 1/28/2018 at 3:45 PM, Hoose said:

Well, I think they take a QB. Eli is on his last legs. 

They did grab a QB last year and Shurmer was talking about Eli having a couple years left, So if he decides he likes Webb drafting another QB this year doesn't make sense and they need a RB and could always use another premier pass rusher.

[Zoltan]

One thing I haven't seen people talking about is the Giants trading down and taking Quentin Nelson. They desperately need O-Line and with the second overall pick have great leverage trading with the Broncos or Jets

[aaron11]

On 1/28/2018 at 6:10 PM, masnerj said:

 

Not only is that possible, it is something that we as Colts fans should be strongly rooting for. The best thing that can happen for us in the draft is if the Browns (or Giants but this is pretty unlikely) draft Barkley #1 overall. That puts us in PRIME position to trade down (and get a HUGE haul) and still get the player(s) that we wanted originally or were super high on our board. 

the broncos and  jets wouldnt have to move in that scenario in order to get the top QBs in the class.  then there would still be a couple of others that go later in the first

 

i think ideally one should go before our pick to create a sense of urgency 

 

if whoever runs the browns these days is smart, they will figure out who the best QB is and take them at #1 imo 

[ColtsBlueFL]

2 hours ago, aaron11 said:

Snip...}

 

if whoever runs the browns these days is smart, they will figure out who the best QB is and take them at #1 imo 

 

It's not so easy.  Peyton manning / Ryan Leaf?  Andrew Luck / RG III ?  Jared Goff / Carson Wentz?   Besides differences in skill and scheme, there are personality, leadership and other  items.  Finding the 'best overall fit' is probably a more accurate description.  And then, how fast and much will they develop? It's easy for us fans using hindsight.