Colin Cowherd Theory on Colts

[RockThatBlue]

1 hour ago, Jared Cisneros said:

You would be the GM of the team in a heartbeat if offered the job, and so would I. I remember talking to Superman back in Chat during a game this year, and he said if offered the job as HC, he'd take it in an instant. He just said we wouldn't like him very much, LOL. Anyone with an ounce of ambition would want to run this team though, and so would you knowing you as a poster.

It would definitely be fun, the only thing I would hate is the fact that you'll be criticized no matter what, and every move and every word is put under a microscope. I wouldn't be good with coach and GM speak lol

[dw49]

31 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

If I understand your thinking here.....     your view is that with the class of 2018 QB's already in the NFL,   there won't be a need for Brissett?      That the teams that need a QB will already have them?      Is that it?

 

The problem with that is this.....       every year in the NFL,  QB's retire....   QB's get hurt....    Rookie QB's,  like those in the 2018 draft won't show much.      So, there is always a need for QB's in the NFL.

 

In the history of the NFL there has never been a season where there wasn't a need for Quarterbacks.     Never.

 

There are 32 teams,  but there aren't 32 players who can play the position at a high enough level.     So, there's ALWAYS a need.      Brissett will far more value in 2019 than he will in 2018.

 

Sorry,   my theory holds all the water it needs.

 

 

 

You do have the value of an extra year of "control" if you trade Brissett in 2018. As to the strong QB class , the ones at the top of draft do appear to be very strong but I think the tier beneath those 3-4 guys will have the most effect on Brissetts value ? Plus things can change before the draft. IMO ... if the plan is to trade him , you simply see what you can get next year ?

[IndyScribe]

12 hours ago, ColtsBlitz said:

Makes sense and I think he's on to something. The league may be wide open this year for the super bowl contenders, but we are incapable of making it with the current roster and coaches. I think we could get a solid player and a 3rd or later pick for Brissett (maybe a better one). If we land in the top 7 pick area, we are bound to get an offer to trade back, get another first, second, and 4th or 5th. 

 

Keep Castanzo, Kelly, and Haeg where they are and get a good guard (Haeg didn't allow a QB pressure vs Ten). 

 

I been considering this year a reset year with every teams skill level (0-10) at about the same between 2-7 (8 and above being near dominant to elite). I think we're at about a 4 without Luck and we could really come out next year and shock the NFL. 

 

For now though, let's get out there and take some W's! Go Colts!!

I don't think Ballard would move Brissett for a 3rd or later pick. If a team offers a first or second rounder, definitely. Third round or later? We keep him.

[Lucky Colts Fan]

4 minutes ago, NorthernBlue said:

Yes there will always be a demand for QBs in the nfl, but the supply isn't always the same each year. There's an extraordinarily high amount of QB talent in the 2018 draft and FA pool, one that won't be quite the same in 2019. So Brissett will be a higher commodity then, than now.

 

Put it this way, now I'm just estimating here, but in all likelihood, of all available quarterbacks in the 2018 Offseason, Brissett is like the 6th or 7th best options (and he's even lower because Cousins and I believe Jimmy G are FAs). Meanwhile in 2 years he'd be Be even higher, and maybe even the best option depending on how he develops and grows his game this year and next.

 

But we're not interested in the supply, we're only interested in the demand, i.e. what we can get for him, and like NewColtsFan said:

 

34 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

The problem with that is this.....       every year in the NFL,  QB's retire....   QB's get hurt....    Rookie QB's,  like those in the 2018 draft won't show much.      So, there is always a need for QB's in the NFL.

 

There's no guarantee that Brissett won't be the 2nd or 3rd or even the 50th best option this upcoming off-season.  His play will determine his trade value.

 

Like I said, the only way we get less for him is if he plays like crap.  As long as he plays well, we will be able to make a favorable trade.  The point is WHAT we get for him, and that will be consistent every year as long as he plays well.

[NewColtsFan]

21 minutes ago, superrep1967 said:

Brissett is proven in the NFL these guys in college are not enough said. 

 

Brissett is not that proven.      Not yet.       He has shown a lot,   but he has also shown flaws.

 

Some of the guys in college have a very high rating.    Much higher than Brissett.

 

If you're under the impression that Brissett is going to command a first round pick,  then I think you're going to be very disappointed.       And if not,   then you've just admitted that the top college kids will be valued more than Brissett.

 

Yes,   enough said.

 

[NewColtsFan]

4 minutes ago, Lucky Colts Fan said:

 

But we're not interested in the supply, we're only interested in the demand, i.e. what we can get for him, and like NewColtsFan said:

 

 

There's no guarantee that Brissett won't be the 2nd or 3rd or even the 50th best option this upcoming off-season.  His play will determine his trade value.

 

Like I said, the only way we get less for him is if he plays like crap.  As long as he plays well, we will be able to make a favorable trade.  The point is WHAT we get for him, and that will be consistent every year as long as he plays well.

 

I'm well aware of what you're saying.....

 

But since the supply of QB's coming into the NFL will be much bigger and better in the 18 than the 19 draft,  then by simple law of supply and demand,  the need for him will be much greater in 19 than in 18 and the better deal should come in 19 rather than in 18.

 

[NewColtsFan]

11 minutes ago, dw49 said:

 

 

You do have the value of an extra year of "control" if you trade Brissett in 2018. As to the strong QB class , the ones at the top of draft do appear to be very strong but I think the tier beneath those 3-4 guys will have the most effect on Brissetts value ? Plus things can change before the draft. IMO ... if the plan is to trade him , you simply see what you can get next year ?

 

 

To be clear,  I don't mind shopping Brissett.      Not at all.      It only takes one buyer to fall in love.    Maybe there's a team out there that loves him so much that we get overwhelmed with an offer.      OK,   that's possible.

 

I just don't think it's likely.

 

Ballard might get offered a 2 or a 3 and feel like that's the best value,  that it will never get higher,  and doesn't want to risk the value going down.      That's possible too.

 

I just don't think it's likely.

 

Personally,  I'd rather keep Brissett for another year of Luck "insurance" and then move him for the 19 season.   He'll still be on his rookie contract and the QB draft class likely will not be as good.     I'd expect that would bring a better price.     

 

Your point about an extra year of "control" is a very good one.     And that may emerge as a key factor in any deal done in 2018.      Good catch!       

 

[Lucky Colts Fan]

3 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

I'm well aware of what you're saying.....

 

But since the supply of QB's coming into the NFL will be much bigger and better in the 18 than the 19 draft,  then by simple law of supply and demand,  the need for him will be much greater in 19 than in 18 and the better deal should come in 19 rather than in 18.

 

Yeah you're probably right.

 

If a QB is a 7 on a scale 1-10, I would think they would fetch the same price any year.  A 7 is a 7 is a 7.  But we've seen it before where a team reaches for a QB in the draft or a trade and they end up being a 4 instead of an 8.  But they paid for an 8.  (RG3 comes to mind)

 

I just hope we're on the right end of any trade involving Brissett.  I hope he plays well enough to warrant a trade and not a release!  (Knock on wood)

[Buddy Lee]

Cowherd's theory is slick to be sure, but I don't see Luck playing along as a tool of Ballard and Irsay.

[NewColtsFan]

42 minutes ago, Lucky Colts Fan said:

 

These two statements aren't compatible.  Like you said:

 

 

So there will always be a need for Brissett.  No more or less in 2018 than any other year.

 

You contradicted yourself.  The only way we get less for Brissett is if he plays like crap, regardless of what year it is.

 

OK....

 

Let me see if I can't explain this better for you.

 

There is always a need for QB's in the NFL.      While there are 32 teams in the NFL,   there are not 32 top QB's in the NFL in any given year.     There never are.     Teams are always looking to upgrade the position.     But while the "need" level is always there,   is not a fixed number or percent.     It goes up or down in any given year.    It's not the same year to year.     But there is always some level of need.  

 

And you address that need by supply.    The 2018 class is the biggest and best class of QB's in a long, long time.    The supply will be strong.      That brings Brissett's value down.      The 2019 class will not be as strong.     That brings Brissett's value up.  

 

Look at the NE back-up.   Garoppolo's value has not gone down.    

 

I want to be clear,   I'm not predicting what Ballard will do here.     I'm only offering my viewpoint with my analysis as explanation.      Whether you buy in or not is up to you....    

 

 

[2006Coltsbestever]

31 minutes ago, RockThatBlue said:

It would definitely be fun, the only thing I would hate is the fact that you'll be criticized no matter what, and every move and every word is put under a microscope. I wouldn't be good with coach and GM speak lol

I would've loved to been a Coach even at the College level. I never played in College but that would be fun to me and a nice challenge to take on. Are you watching Louisville/Fla St? That is 7-7 right now.

[Lucky Colts Fan]

1 minute ago, NewColtsFan said:

OK....

 

Let me see if I can't explain this better for you.

 

There is always a need for QB's in the NFL.      While there are 32 teams in the NFL,   there are not 32 top QB's in the NFL in any given year.     There never are.     Teams are always looking to upgrade the position.     But while the "need" level is always there,   is not a fixed number or percent.     It goes up or down in any given year.    It's not the same year to year.     But there is always some level of need.  

 

And you address that need by supply.    The 2018 class is the biggest and best class of QB's in a long, long time.    The supply will be strong.      That brings Brissett's value down.      The 2019 class will not be as strong.     That brings Brissett's value up.  

 

Look at the NE back-up.   Garoppolo's value has not gone down.    

 

I want to be clear,   I'm not predicting what Ballard will do here.     I'm only offering my viewpoint with my analysis as explanation.      Whether you buy in or not is up to you....    

 

I get it.  I was kinda thinking in absolutes, black and white as far as value.  But competition effects value, so there's a lot of gray area as far as what a team would be willing to give us for Brissett from year to year.

 

A football forum just took me back to Econ 101...  I'm not sure how I feel about that...  

[MFT5]

1 hour ago, coltsfeva said:

  Here’s the problem I have with this, It assumes a few things I can’t assume:

1. Ballard convincing the coaches, owner and players to tank.

2. Convincing Luck not to play, even if he’s 100%.

3. Getting a cordesone shot means anything but a relief from the typical soreness from the surgery.

4. Colts will be out of contention when Andrew returns.

5. The Oline won’t improve. 

 

  I heard NOTHING in Ballard’s press conference that would indicate the Colts will shut down Andrew for the year. I believe Ballard when he says they are not talking about that now.

 

1. He doesn't have to convince them to tank, the coaches functioning as Is ensures these results. 

 

2. Luck probably isn't 100% tbh he's been beaten up since he got here. 

 

3. This sways the argument neither here not there. 

 

4. This team mostly due to coaching is garbage why don't yu understand common sense ?

 

5. We've had oline problems for 10 plus years. It ain't getting better no time soon 

 

*It's like you & Pagano work on the same frequency   

[RockThatBlue]

18 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I would've loved to been a Coach even at the College level. I never played in College but that would be fun to me and a nice challenge to take on. Are you watching Louisville/Fla St? That is 7-7 right now.

Watching Oklahoma State and Texas

[The Fish]

Within 20 seconds he's all ready "butchering" the facts. There's two specific plays on which he got hurt. Two. Neither was on a sack. Show me a QB that's not taking a lot hits these days in the pocket? I thought we knew O-line play across the NFL was at an all time crap level? And that says nothing of running QB's. 

 

This guy makes my skin crawl. Have I mentioned that?

At 45 seconds he starts in on Ballard thinking "I'm not going to play him" even though we've seen him throw and we've only heard multiple times that when he's ready, he's playing. Facts fitting the narrative again?

This guy makes my skin crawl. Luck might not play, but his conspiracy theory is just that. Is he saying Luck "experienced" fatigue in the same way "Tony makes sure you don't talk?"..

 

He thinks there was some kind of master plan with Brissett? Was he paying attention to the whole Scott Tolzien thing? 

This guy.. ugh.

As was pointed out, the Richest QB draft class does not make JB's value greater. Just dumb.

 

Have I mentioned I'm not a fan of Cowherd. At least Skip Bayless can make me laugh. This guy is just bad.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[HOF19]

If Andrew leads us even to step on the field to play the AFC Championship game in 2018 and one of things needed to make that happen is that he never suits up in 2017......SIGN FOR THAT IN A HEARTBEAT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[ponyboy]

8 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

And you address that need by supply.    The 2018 class is the biggest and best class of QB's in a long, long time.    The supply will be strong.      That brings Brissett's value down.      The 2019 class will not be as strong.     That brings Brissett's value up.  

 

 

 

You're stressing the supply side of this in 2018.  The other poster is pointing out that the demand *could* be lower in 2019 if many teams have invested heavily in the 2017/2018 QB drafts (top picks).   Hard to say when Brissett's value would be higher.. if both demand and supply are higher (2018) or if both demand/supply are lower (in 2019 relative to 2018).

 

Any team that invests a #1 draft pick (plus more in trade) in 2017/2018 will likely not be in the market for a potential new starter in 2019.  That would include CHI, HOU, KC from 2017, and potentially 4 or 5 additional in 2018.

 

Both are fair points. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

11 minutes ago, RockThatBlue said:

Watching Oklahoma State and Texas

Me too now.

[Lucky Colts Fan]

32 minutes ago, MFT5 said:

5. We've had oline problems for 10 plus years. It ain't getting better no time soon

 

Said every fan of every team in the NFL every year...

[coltsfeva]

57 minutes ago, MFT5 said:

 

1. He doesn't have to convince them to tank, the coaches functioning as Is ensures these results. 

 

2. Luck probably isn't 100% tbh he's been beaten up since he got here. 

 

3. This sways the argument neither here not there. 

 

4. This team mostly due to coaching is garbage why don't yu understand common sense ?

 

5. We've had oline problems for 10 plus years. It ain't getting better no time soon 

 

*It's like you & Pagano work on the same frequency   

      Love your optimism and in-depth assessment of the team and coaching staff (they’re garbage), as well as your ability to see into the future as to how well the Oline will play. 

       What I find to be funny is how Ballard calmly explains that they expected the possibility of some soreness, but Andrew had good velocity and arm strength and that they were NOT talking about putting him on IR and now we have this nonsense, not only from fans, but from local and national media. 

[Defjamz26]

13 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

Here's the problem with Colin's theory....

 

If you want to trade Brissett -- fine.   But you DON'T want to trade him in the 2018 draft.     It's the best and deepest draft for QB's in a long, long time.    That drives Brissett's value DOWN.

 

If you're going to trade Brissett it's much better to do it for the 2019 draft which won't be as talented and that will make Brissett's value go UP.

 

Simple law of supply and demand.

 

But in broad general terms, I think there's some logic to Colin's theory.   I just don't think this is as cut and dry as he makes it out to be.    This didn't all get hatched back in January when Ballard was hired.    This has played out over the course of the entire year.    Lots and lots of moving parts that have happened over the last nine months and didn't all happen back when Ballard was hired.

 

Interesting,  but somewhat over thought.

 

I agree with you 100%. I don't think this was some master plan drawn up months ago. I think this is possibly the plan of action going forward based on what has transpired. I really don't think Luck playing in 2017 was in the cards for at least week 10. Brissett is a good backup but there's a such thing as too good to be a backup. Ballard may get an offer he can't refuse.

 

Only thing I may disagree with you on is Brissett's value in 2018. Yes it's a deep draft at QB but some teams may want someone more further along in development. The Jaguars, Cardinals, Redskins (if Cousins leaves), and Steelers (if Ben retires). Plus you have to sell high.Not going into 2019 when Luck is back and his hype is gone. 

[Peterk2011]

I don't see the value in trading Brissett away. The Colts finally have a quality backup for cheap for years. That worths more than a possible what? maybe a 3rd rounder? Unless of course if Brissett suddenly turns into a Tom Brady, but I don't see that coming.

 

What Cowherd said about the draft, that makes sense. He sounds ike Ballard's been reinventing the wheel. He obviously isn't, teams who have a franchise QB and a top5-10 pick usually try to shop their pick. Ballad will probably do that as well.  Denver, Arizona, Minnesota, Miami, (Pittsburgh?, Jacksonwille?) for example might give up some picks to grab a new franchise QB.

[hoosierhawk]

14 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

 

"If you want to trade Brissett -- fine.   But you DON'T want to trade him in the 2018 draft.     It's the best and deepest draft for QB's in a long, long time.    That drives Brissett's value DOWN."

 

To state with certainty that this is " the best and deepest draft for QB's in a long, long time." is a stretch. In 2015 Winston and Mariota were picked one and two and in 2016 Goff and Wentz were picked one and  two. I have seen the supposed top QB's this year and I don't think any are better than these guys.

I also don't think they will trade Brissett during the off season unless they are absolutely certain Luck is 100% or they get an offer they can't refuse.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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[NewColtsFan]

17 minutes ago, hoosierhawk said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Did you want to take another crack at this?       I don't think your post came out quite the way you wanted it......

 

Just saying......

 

[NewColtsFan]

1 hour ago, ponyboy said:

 

You're stressing the supply side of this in 2018.  The other poster is pointing out that the demand *could* be lower in 2019 if many teams have invested heavily in the 2017/2018 QB drafts (top picks).   Hard to say when Brissett's value would be higher.. if both demand and supply are higher (2018) or if both demand/supply are lower (in 2019 relative to 2018).

 

Any team that invests a #1 draft pick (plus more in trade) in 2017/2018 will likely not be in the market for a potential new starter in 2019.  That would include CHI, HOU, KC from 2017, and potentially 4 or 5 additional in 2018.

 

Both are fair points. 

 

 

Good post.      Fair points.      Two sides of the equation.     The supply side,  and the demand side.

 

The reason I'm not worried about the demand side as much is that....   stuff happens.

 

Older QB's retire.     QB's get hurt.      Some younger QB's don't pan out and teams give up on them.

 

In any given year,  any given season,   I'd say roughly 10-12 teams would like to at least upgrade their QB spot.    They may have a QB who is decent,   but they want better.      There is never a time when all 32 teams are happy with the QB spot.     And it's not even close.      Teams may not publicly say so,   but many would like someone better than what they have.

 

The position being the most important one in the sport,  teams always want an upgrade.     I think Brissett will remain in demand.     My personal preference would be to keep Brissett for one more year of Luck "insurance" and then trade him for the 19 season.     Ballard may not agree and might prefer to move him this coming off-season.    But I'm guessing he won't.     Just my hunch and reasonable minds will disagree on this.....

 

Again,  good post by you.....      appreciate it.

 

[Gabriel Alexander Morillo]

13 hours ago, GoColts8818 said:

That’s fair wasn’t a shot at you.  The idea of trading him has been brought up many times here.  Personally I am just happy to keep him as a backup.

Well some people just like to play the odds. Look at the Falcons last year. Ryan stayed healthy all year=Super Bowl. Imagine if he got hurt for like 5 games and they went 0-5 or 1-4 in that stretch with their scrub backup in... It all depends on your QB and how much the front office has confidence they won’t get injured.

 

Big Ben always misses a couple games a year with his injury but theyre always prepared for it with decent backup play and make the playoffs regardless 

[hoosierhawk]

"If you want to trade Brissett -- fine.   But you DON'T want to trade him in the 2018 draft.     It's the best and deepest draft for QB's in a long, long time.    That drives Brissett's value DOWN."

 

To state with certainty that this is " the best and deepest draft for QB's in a long, long time." is a stretch. In 2015 Winston and Mariota were picked one and two and in 2016 Goff and Wentz were picked one and  two. I have seen the supposed top QB's this year and I don't think any are better than these guys.

I also don't think they will trade Brissett during the off season unless they are absolutely certain Luck is 100% or they get an offer they can't refuse.

This worked better.

[Track Guy]

I wouldn't be complaining so long as next off season we can finally fix the O-line and get good players at the ILB positions.

[superrep1967]

4 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Brissett is not that proven.      Not yet.       He has shown a lot,   but he has also shown flaws.

 

Some of the guys in college have a very high rating.    Much higher than Brissett.

 

If you're under the impression that Brissett is going to command a first round pick,  then I think you're going to be very disappointed.       And if not,   then you've just admitted that the top college kids will be valued more than Brissett.

 

Yes,   enough said.

 

Fair enough!

[ponyboy]

49 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

 

The reason I'm not worried about the demand side as much is that....   stuff happens.

 

Older QB's retire.     QB's get hurt.      Some younger QB's don't pan out and teams give up on them.

 

 

I decided to do a quick analysis on the current state of starting QBs in the NFL and think you're right about the demand for staring QBs.  I think there will be plenty of demand in both 2018 and 2019.

 

Teams with an immediate need in 2018: CLE, SF, JAX, ARI, NYJ, BUF [6]

Teams looking for a future vet replacement in 2018/2019: PITT, LAC, NYG, NO [4] 

Teams who could be looking for upgrade in next couple years: CIN, MIN, MIA, DEN, BAL [5]

 

Bortles, Alex Smith, Flacco, Tannyhill, Bradford, Dalton will still be starters and filling positions for some of these teams, most likely staying with their current teams.   Cousins may move to one of the teams with an immediate need, but if he does that opens up WAS an immediate need.  Even if there were 3-4 long term starters found each of the next two drafts (which would be optimistic), there will be demand beyond what's available.

[NewColtsFan]

49 minutes ago, hoosierhawk said:

"If you want to trade Brissett -- fine.   But you DON'T want to trade him in the 2018 draft.     It's the best and deepest draft for QB's in a long, long time.    That drives Brissett's value DOWN."

 

To state with certainty that this is " the best and deepest draft for QB's in a long, long time." is a stretch. In 2015 Winston and Mariota were picked one and two and in 2016 Goff and Wentz were picked one and  two. I have seen the supposed top QB's this year and I don't think any are better than these guys.

I also don't think they will trade Brissett during the off season unless they are absolutely certain Luck is 100% or they get an offer they can't refuse.

This worked better.

 

In 15 you had INWston and Mariotta....      and then?

 

In 16 yu had Goff and Wentz,   who were not the top two rated players in the draft,  they went 1-2 because they're quarterbacks and teams wanted to make sure they'd get the guys they wanted.

 

Here's what we're looking at in 18....

 

Sam Darnold        USC      Top-5 and possible #1

Josh Rosen          UCLA    Top-10 possible top 5

Josh Allen            Wyoming   Top-15 and possible top 10

 

Mason Rudolph     Okla St.     Possible 1st round,  but should be a 2nd rounder

Lamar Jackson      Louisville   Possible 1st round,  but should be a 2nd rounder

Baker Mayfield       Okla          Possible 1st round,   but should be a 2nd rounder

 

Luke Falk             Wash St.      Possible 2nd round,  no later than 3rd

Nick Fitzgerald     Miss St.       Possible 3rd round,  but more likely 3rd or 4th.

Riley Ferguson     Memphis    Possible 3rd round,   but more likely 3rd or 4th

 

Brandon Silvers       Troy        Possible 4th,  but maybe 5th

Mike White           W. Kent      Possible 4th,   but maybe 5th.

 

This is a big class.     It's not just two guys at the top.      We had 3 guys go in the 1st this year,    Trubisky,  Mahomes and Watson.      I think the 3 guys who look like 1's compare very favorably to the 17 class.    And there's good talent in rounds 2 and 3 and maybe even 4.       This class has talent at the top and depth that could go 4, 5 rounds.

 

I'm not the guy calling this a great class of QB's....    evaluators are.     That's why a number of posters here have suggested trading Luck and taking a kid at the top of the 1st and start over....

 

 

[NewColtsFan]

12 minutes ago, ponyboy said:

 

I decided to do a quick analysis on the current state of starting QBs in the NFL and think you're right about the demand for staring QBs.  I think there will be plenty of demand in both 2018 and 2019.

 

Teams with an immediate need in 2018: CLE, SF, JAX, ARI, NYJ, BUF [6]

Teams looking for a future vet replacement in 2018/2019: PITT, LAC, NYG, NO [4] 

Teams who could be looking for upgrade in next couple years: CIN, MIN, MIA, DEN, BAL [5]

 

Bortles, Alex Smith, Flacco, Tannyhill, Bradford, Dalton will still be starters and filling positions for some of these teams, most likely staying with their current teams.   Cousins may move to one of the teams with an immediate need, but if he does that opens up WAS an immediate need.  Even if there were 3-4 long term starters found each of the next two drafts (which would be optimistic), there will be demand beyond what's available.

 

Thanks for doing that.     Very classy of you!      This gives posters here a good idea of what's coming down the road.   You've spelled it out really well for people here to see.    That's 15 teams....   nearly half of the NFL.       There's always a need.        If we revisit this in 4-5 years and do a projecction like you just did,   there will likely be a number roughly similar to what you just came up with.     

 

I hope you can either remember this post,  or bookmark it somehow as I suspect we will need to go back and reference it in the near future....      It's a really, really good post!           

[TheRustonRifle#7]

I like Brissett but at this point he has to show a lot more to be someone that another team will give up a high pick for.

[SaturdayAllDay]

16 minutes ago, ponyboy said:

 

I decided to do a quick analysis on the current state of starting QBs in the NFL and think you're right about the demand for staring QBs.  I think there will be plenty of demand in both 2018 and 2019.

 

Teams with an immediate need in 2018: CLE, SF, JAX, ARI, NYJ, BUF [6]

Teams looking for a future vet replacement in 2018/2019: PITT, LAC, NYG, NO [4] 

Teams who could be looking for upgrade in next couple years: CIN, MIN, MIA, DEN, BAL [5]

 

Bortles, Alex Smith, Flacco, Tannyhill, Bradford, Dalton will still be starters and filling positions for some of these teams, most likely staying with their current teams.   Cousins may move to one of the teams with an immediate need, but if he does that opens up WAS an immediate need.  Even if there were 3-4 long term starters found each of the next two drafts (which would be optimistic), there will be demand beyond what's available.

Depending how things shake out with Tom Brady/ Jimmy G this offseason, I think NE could be looking for a future vet replacement as well. If Tom stays another season and they let Jimmy walk, then they have to look for Toms eventual replacement again. 

[hoosierhawk]

16 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

In 15 you had INWston and Mariotta....      and then?

 

In 16 yu had Goff and Wentz,   who were not the top two rated players in the draft,  they went 1-2 because they're quarterbacks and teams wanted to make sure they'd get the guys they wanted.

 

Here's what we're looking at in 18....

 

Sam Darnold        USC      Top-5 and possible #1

Josh Rosen          UCLA    Top-10 possible top 5

Josh Allen            Wyoming   Top-15 and possible top 10

 

Mason Rudolph     Okla St.     Possible 1st round,  but should be a 2nd rounder

Lamar Jackson      Louisville   Possible 1st round,  but should be a 2nd rounder

Baker Mayfield       Okla          Possible 1st round,   but should be a 2nd rounder

 

Luke Falk             Wash St.      Possible 2nd round,  no later than 3rd

Nick Fitzgerald     Miss St.       Possible 3rd round,  but more likely 3rd or 4th.

Riley Ferguson     Memphis    Possible 3rd round,   but more likely 3rd or 4th

 

Brandon Silvers       Troy        Possible 4th,  but maybe 5th

Mike White           W. Kent      Possible 4th,   but maybe 5th.

 

This is a big class.     It's not just two guys at the top.      We had 3 guys go in the 1st this year,    Trubisky,  Mahomes and Watson.      I think the 3 guys who look like 1's compare very favorably to the 17 class.    And there's good talent in rounds 2 and 3 and maybe even 4.       This class has talent at the top and depth that could go 4, 5 rounds.

 

I'm not the guy calling this a great class of QB's....    evaluators are.     That's why a number of posters here have suggested trading Luck and taking a kid at the top of the 1st and start over....

 

 

there is always a long list of senior QB's. Doubt that you will have top 2 picks being QBs. From last I saw Josh Allen has the body for the NFL but hasn't proven to be top 10 or 20 yet this year but because of need for QBs he may be taken early for the same reason Brissett may be in demand.

[richard pallo]

5 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

I'm well aware of what you're saying.....

 

But since the supply of QB's coming into the NFL will be much bigger and better in the 18 than the 19 draft,  then by simple law of supply and demand,  the need for him will be much greater in 19 than in 18 and the better deal should come in 19 rather than in 18.

 

Yeah but what happens if the supply of QB's coming into the NFL in 18 go to the QB starved teams and they pan out?  The teams that needed a QB found their guy.   Now the demand in 19 is not so much. The likelihood of that happening is probably not that great but it could.   But if Brissett does have a solid year with this team he might become as coveted as Garapolo.  He would have proved himself whereas the incoming rookies have yet to take a snap.  In that case we might get a 2 or even a 1.  To me his value all hinges on how he performs the rest of the way.  And if he continues to improve we are in a great position.  

[dw49]

6 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

 

To be clear,  I don't mind shopping Brissett.      Not at all.      It only takes one buyer to fall in love.    Maybe there's a team out there that loves him so much that we get overwhelmed with an offer.      OK,   that's possible.

 

I just don't think it's likely.

 

Ballard might get offered a 2 or a 3 and feel like that's the best value,  that it will never get higher,  and doesn't want to risk the value going down.      That's possible too.

 

I just don't think it's likely.

 

Personally,  I'd rather keep Brissett for another year of Luck "insurance" and then move him for the 19 season.   He'll still be on his rookie contract and the QB draft class likely will not be as good.     I'd expect that would bring a better price.     

 

Your point about an extra year of "control" is a very good one.     And that may emerge as a key factor in any deal done in 2018.      Good catch!       

 

 

Oh... I don't think it's likely Ballard would get even a 3 yet alone a 2 for Brissett. And it could very well be that his best value for the Colts after this year is being Luck's backup in 2018 -2019. There are plenty of good athletes with good size and a big arm that are not capable of being an average starter in the NFL. Don't you think it's VERY possible that Brissett has some of the same "shortcomings as RG3 ?  Ghosts in the pocket , footwork issues and seeing and reading the whole field ? 

 

IMO , Brissett at this point in time is probably worth something from the middle of round 4 to the middle of round 5. 

[richard pallo]

8 minutes ago, dw49 said:

 

Oh... I don't think it's likely Ballard would get even a 3 yet alone a 2 for Brissett. And it could very well be that his best value for the Colts after this year is being Luck's backup in 2018 -2019. There are plenty of good athletes with good size and a big arm that are not capable of being an average starter in the NFL. Don't you think it's VERY possible that Brissett has some of the same "shortcomings as RG3 ?  Ghosts in the pocket , footwork issues and seeing and reading the whole field ? 

 

IMO , Brissett at this point in time is probably worth something from the middle of round 4 to the middle of round 5. 

I've said it before he was a 3rd. rd. pick himself who has proven he can play in the league and win on two different teams.  Even with our current team and all it's problems and no training camp.  We traded a former 1 for him.  He will only get better with us the more he plays.  Why would you take a lower rd. pick in trade for a player who has yet to prove themselves?   If he continues to improve he could fetch a 1 or 2 easily.  He could become just as hot as Garopolo  depending on how his year pans out.  

[Thorolf]

But why trade away Brissett and then have no adequate back-up ? I think this season has proven that having a reliable back-up quarterback is a very good idea.                                                                                                                              In addition even Colin stated that Luck's surgery requires 9-12 months of recovery. Therefore why is it not possible that Andrew will be ready soon since he has now had 10 moths of recovery time? It seems to me that he should be ready very soon.                                                                                                                                                                              Colin stated that this is just his unsupported opinion. I personally think that he is wrong, and that the owners and management have not automatically given up on this season at this point in the season. But then again , that is just My opinion.

[SaturdayAllDay]

34 minutes ago, Thorolf said:

But why trade away Brissett and then have no adequate back-up ? I think this season has proven that having a reliable back-up quarterback is a very good idea. 

The predominant theory is that we trade Brissett and then sign/draft a replacement for his backup spot. 

 

If we got a 1st round pick for him, any QB drafted round 2 or later to be a backup is a net gain. With the apparent Qb depth in the draft, it is entirely possible to get a good backup level QB in rounds 2-4. 

 

Same if we grabbed a vet QB. Spending 3-6M/yr on a backup in free agency and drafting a pass rusher with a 1st round pick from trading Brissett is better for our cap than Brissett being on a rookie contract and paying 14-16M/ Yr for a top pass rusher in free agency. Same thing with an OL player, CB, WR, arguably even a top MLB. 

 

Im not saying I agree with it, just showing the logic behind it.