Wild card scenario

[coltsorioles]

We all know they need texans, and titans to lose week 16 and titans to beat texans week 17 for the colts to win the division.  But for the wild card they need Denver, Miami, Baltimore to lose out. And if the titans win the division they need the Texans to lose vs the Bengals. If the Texans win the division they need the titans to lose 1.  Am I missing anything else other than the colts winning out

[Reboot]

Courtesy of IndyStar:

 

To win the division the Colts need:

>>To win their final two games, Houston lose its last two and Tennessee lose to Jacksonville and beat Houston.

 

The Colts' Wild Card hopes have all but been extinguished.

>> Miami, Denver and Baltimore have to lose their final two games.

Here is how Indianapolis does with tiebreakers at 9-7:

>> The first tiebreaker is head-to-head, Indianapolis will lose a tie with Denver, Pittsburgh or Houston. It will advance over Tennessee.

>> The second tiebreaker is conference record. At 9-7, Baltimore would be 8-4 and Pittsburgh 7-5 within the conference. Indianapolis, Miami, Buffalo (which can also finish 9-7), Tennessee, Houston and Denver would be 6-6, so Baltimore or Pittsburgh would win the Wild Card in this scenario.

>> If Baltimore loses out, first we need to break the intra-division ties. So Miami or Buffalo would be eliminated (still to be determined), and it would be (in order) Houston-Indianapolis-Tennessee in the AFC South.

>> Assuming the Colts are still alive, we go to common games with, potentially, Denver and Miami or Buffalo. This tiebreaker requires a minimum of four common games so none of the possible three-way tiebreakers apply. In two-team ties, Indianapolis would advance over Buffalo. In this scenario, Miami would lose its final two games and equal the Colts' common games record.

>> The next tiebreaker -- for Miami versus Colts or for a three-way tie -- goes to strength of victory. Indianapolis would likely finish ahead of Miami but lose to Denver. Because there are three weeks left, the strength of victory results can change.

[#12.]

Yes, the Colts need the Bills to beat the Dolphins or the Jags to beat the Titans to still be alive when their game in Oakland begins.

 

Cheering list:

 

1:00 Bills over Dolphins, Jags over Titans

 

4:00 Colts over Raiders

 

8:30 Bengals over Texans

 

Christmas 

 

Steelers over Ravens, Chiefs over Broncos

[krunk]

I have no problem feeling like we can win out.  I don't feel too  skeptical about us beating Oakland.  The rest of the scenarios are not likely to happen though.  Can't see Jax beating TN in any realm.  Can see Houston losing to Cincy, but I don't see the TN loss to Jax at all.

[runthepost]

17 minutes ago, #12. said:

Yes, the Colts need the Bills to beat the Dolphins or the Jags to beat the Titans to still be alive when their game in Oakland begins.

 

Cheering list:

 

1:00 Bills over Dolphins, Jags over Titans

 

4:00 Colts over Raiders

 

8:30 Bengals over Texans

 

Christmas 

 

Steelers over Ravens, Chiefs over Broncos

Knowing the colts all of this will happen then they lose their game

[zibby43]

25 minutes ago, runthepost said:

Knowing the colts all of this will happen then they lose their game

 

Exactly.  The only two possibilities are: Everything miraculous happens except the Colts winning OR the Colts win and nothing miraculous happens.

[OffensivelyPC]

1 hour ago, coltsorioles said:

We all know they need texans, and titans to lose week 16 and titans to beat texans week 17 for the colts to win the division.  But for the wild card they need Denver, Miami, Baltimore to lose out. And if the titans win the division they need the Texans to lose vs the Bengals. If the Texans win the division they need the titans to lose 1.  Am I missing anything else other than the colts winning out

It is legit not possible for us to make the playoffs via wildcard.  Miami holds a tie breaker over us even if they lose out.

[oldunclemark]

Lets shorthand this: Jacksonville has to beat Tennessee...

[coltsva]

1 hour ago, OffensivelyPC said:

It is legit not possible for us to make the playoffs via wildcard.  Miami holds a tie breaker over us even if they lose out.

How so? 

1. head to head- not applicable

2. conference record would both be 6-6

3. common opponents would both be 4-1

4. strength of victory is Colts by a large margin

[BertJones]

it is in fact possible to be a wildcard in strength of victory.

 

if Titans win this sunday,etc., everything else, Colts can get wildcard.

 

 

[AZColt11]

As funny as this sounds I could possibly see the Jags beating the Titans in a nail-biter.  The Jags have won the last two meetings at EverBank Field and they sucked then too.  The Titans are 1-3 in the division so far.

[OffensivelyPC]

10 hours ago, coltsva said:

How so? 

1. head to head- not applicable

2. conference record would both be 6-6

3. common opponents would both be 4-1

4. strength of victory is Colts by a large margin

The bills also hold a tie breaker over us, who play the Fins and then the Jets.  Your scenario mandates the Bills beat the Fins and I seriously doubt they are losing to the Jets with a backup QB and how they've imploded the last couple games.

[krunk]

The Ravens losing out has some possibility but I don't think they will lose to both Pitt and Cincy. Maybe Pitt, but not Cincy.

 

[krunk]

I can't see the Ravens losing out. Maybe to Pitt, but not to Cincy. I can see Denver and Miami losing out.

[coltsva]

1 hour ago, OffensivelyPC said:

The bills also hold a tie breaker over us, who play the Fins and then the Jets.  Your scenario mandates the Bills beat the Fins and I seriously doubt they are losing to the Jets with a backup QB and how they've imploded the last couple games.

I disagree with Bills holding tiebreaker over Colts if they win out and go 9-7.

1.Head to head-not applicable

2.conference record-6-6 (same as Colts)

3.record vs common opponents. Colts 3-2, Bills 2-3

 

However, the Colts/Buffalo tie is irrelevant since in a 3 way tie involving 2 teams from the same division, you first break the tie between the teams from the same division, and Miami would win the tiebreaker with Buffalo. 

 

Unless I'm missing something in the tie breaking procedures, the above is correct. 

 

 

[buccolts]

1 hour ago, OffensivelyPC said:

The bills also hold a tie breaker over us, who play the Fins and then the Jets.  Your scenario mandates the Bills beat the Fins and I seriously doubt they are losing to the Jets with a backup QB and how they've imploded the last couple games.

 

Possible, not probable.

[OffensivelyPC]

42 minutes ago, coltsva said:

I disagree with Bills holding tiebreaker over Colts if they win out and go 9-7.

1.Head to head-not applicable

2.conference record-6-6 (same as Colts)

3.record vs common opponents. Colts 3-2, Bills 2-3

 

However, the Colts/Buffalo tie is irrelevant since in a 3 way tie involving 2 teams from the same division, you first break the tie between the teams from the same division, and Miami would win the tiebreaker with Buffalo. 

 

Unless I'm missing something in the tie breaking procedures, the above is correct. 

 

 

Scroll down to the Bills

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/standings/_/view/playoff

[OffensivelyPC]

24 minutes ago, buccolts said:

 

Possible, not probable.

Fair enough.  

[coltsva]

2 minutes ago, OffensivelyPC said:

Scroll down to the Bills

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/standings/_/view/playoff

Common opponents

Bills beat Jets(week 17), Jaguars. Lost to Raiders, Steelers, Jets. That's 2-3

Colts beat Raiders(week 16), Jaguars(week 17), Jets. Lost to Steelers, Jaguars. That's 3-2

The ESPN site is wrong.

[OffensivelyPC]

50 minutes ago, coltsva said:

Common opponents

Bills beat Jets(week 17), Jaguars. Lost to Raiders, Steelers, Jets. That's 2-3

Colts beat Raiders(week 16), Jaguars(week 17), Jets. Lost to Steelers, Jaguars. That's 3-2

The ESPN site is wrong.

Alright, I concede - I've got nothing left.  I still say a wild card entry into the playoffs is, while not impossible, the probability of such is close enough.  If we have to depend on 3 teams with winning records to lose out, some of thsoe teams which have losing records, and Houston to go 0-2 and the Titans to go 2-0 for us to back into a wildcard, we might as well toss the hope of that out the window.  The probability of such a scenario has to be less than 1%.

[JColts72]

U mean for next seasons changes right?

[dw49]

3 hours ago, OffensivelyPC said:

Alright, I concede - I've got nothing left.  I still say a wild card entry into the playoffs is, while not impossible, the probability of such is close enough.  If we have to depend on 3 teams with winning records to lose out, some of thsoe teams which have losing records, and Houston to go 0-2 and the Titans to go 2-0 for us to back into a wildcard, we might as well toss the hope of that out the window.  The probability of such a scenario has to be less than 1%.

 

Without a doubt less than 1%. We have a better chance getting a date with Kate Upton than seeing the Colts as a  Wild Card entry.

[#12.]

Of course it's improbable, but to still be alive going into the final week, the Colts either need, for the division, the Jags and Bengals to win, or for the wild card, the Bills, Steelers and Chiefs to win.  When you look at it like that, there is probably a greater chance, going into the final week, of them being alive for the wild card.

 

If the miraculous happens and they get the 6th seed, what do they win?  A January trip to Pittsburgh.  If by some miracle they win that game, it's on to New England. lol

[jameszeigler834]

20 hours ago, #12. said:

Yes, the Colts need the Bills to beat the Dolphins or the Jags to beat the Titans to still be alive when their game in Oakland begins.

 

Cheering list:

 

1:00 Bills over Dolphins, Jags over Titans

 

4:00 Colts over Raiders

 

8:30 Bengals over Texans

 

Christmas 

 

Steelers over Ravens, Chiefs over Broncos

Ravens over steelers I hope.

[krunk]

I just can't see the Jaguars beating Tenn.  That was a bad butt whipping they gave Jax last game and I can't see Tenn laying down with all this on the line for them.  Of course I'll be pleasantly surprised if it happens but I ain't holding my breath for the Jags to do anything but be the Jags.

[NorthernBlue]

15 hours ago, AZColt11 said:

As funny as this sounds I could possibly see the Jags beating the Titans in a nail-biter.  The Jags have won the last two meetings at EverBank Field and they sucked then too.  The Titans are 1-3 in the division so far.

But the titans sucks back then too

[#12.]

9 hours ago, krunk said:

I just can't see the Jaguars beating Tenn.  That was a bad butt whipping they gave Jax last game and I can't see Tenn laying down with all this on the line for them.  Of course I'll be pleasantly surprised if it happens but I ain't holding my breath for the Jags to do anything but be the Jags.

Football is funny, though, because of the turnover factor and a limited number of possessions.  You get a fumble, a tipped pass and a big special teams play...  Games turn in a matter of minutes.

 

That said, the Colts need way too many games to go their way.  

[theanarchist]

On 12/19/2016 at 5:24 PM, krunk said:

I have no problem feeling like we can win out.  I don't feel too  skeptical about us beating Oakland.  The rest of the scenarios are not likely to happen though.  Can't see Jax beating TN in any realm.  Can see Houston losing to Cincy, but I don't see the TN loss to Jax at all.

We'd be more likely successful if we were able to reverse the orbit of the earth and return to Sunday December, 11 and replay the Houston game. Maybe this time the Colts would actually show up to play? It's plausible

[Dingus McGirt]

Let's all just enjoy what's left of the Colt's season - then sit back and watch someone take out New England. 

[deedub75]

I'm hoping for whatever scenario is needed to give Pagano and Grigson the boot. 

[Coltswarriors]

Am I the only one, as crazy as it looks, thinks making the wild card is more realistic than winning the division? Lol

 

I just have a very hard time seeing the Jags beat the Titans

[runthepost]

11 hours ago, Coltswarriors said:

Am I the only one, as crazy as it looks, thinks making the wild card is more realistic than winning the division? Lol

 

I just have a very hard time seeing the Jags beat the Titans

We can't make the wildcard. Dolphins have the tiebreaker over us

[Colts_Fan12]

On 12/22/2016 at 10:02 AM, deedub75 said:

I'm hoping for whatever scenario is needed to give Pagano and Grigson the boot. 

Now this I can geton bored with!!

[gacoop1]

Miracles do happen!

[coltsleafs]

I just hope either Jags beat Titans or Bills beat Dolphins so that the Colts Raider game still has meaning. 

[runthepost]

4 minutes ago, coltsleafs said:

I just hope either Jags beat Titans or Bills beat Dolphins so that the Colts Raider game still has meaning. 

Dolphins hold the tie breaker

[krunk]

5 minutes ago, coltsleafs said:

I just hope either Jags beat Titans or Bills beat Dolphins so that the Colts Raider game still has meaning. 

Bills should beat the Dolphins.

[coltsleafs]

No accord

1 minute ago, runthepost said:

Dolphins hold the tie breaker

Not according to the ESPN playoff machine

[runthepost]

3 minutes ago, coltsleafs said:

No accord

Not according to the ESPN playoff machine

It says we hold the tiebreaker with buffalo

[coltsleafs]

if you have miami and ravens and broncos lose last two games and colts win both colts get the six seed. Give it a shot. http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine