Superman's 2015 offseason mock (1.0)

[Superman]

Starting cap position in 2015: $118.1m committed, cap space of $29.6m (assuming $140m cap + 2014 rollover of $7.7m, including all contracts)

 

Releases

Cherilus, saves $4m in 2015 and $4.1m in 2016 (post-June 1)

Landry, saves $4m in 2015 and $6m in 2016 (post-June 1)

Thomas, saves $3.25m in 2015, $3.75m in 2016

Richardson, saves $3.2m in 2015

Cribbs, saves $.97m

Phillips, saves $2.65

Total saved: $18.1m in 2015, $13.9 in 2016, $32m total

New cap position in 2015: $100m committed, cap space of $47.7m

 

Free agent retentions

McNary, ERFA, waive rights

Nixon, ERFA tender, $.585m

Herron, ERFA tender, $.585m

Adongo, ERFA tender, $.585m

Pendleton, RFA tender original round, $1.33m

Overton, RFA, extend, three years, $2.9m, 2015 cap hit of $.8m

Freeman, RFA, extend, three years, $9m, 2015 cap hit of $2.65m

Howell, RFA, no offer

Shipley, RFA tender original round, $1.33m

Gordy, UFA, no offer

Reitz, UFA, extend, two years, $3.75m, 2015 cap hit of $1.5m

Anderson, UFA, no offer

Brown, UFA, extend, two years, $3.5m, 2015 cap hit of $1.5m

Nicks, UFA, no offer

Moala, UFA, no offer

Butler, UFA, two years, $6.5m, 2015 cap hit of $3m

Studebaker, UFA, no offer

Bradshaw, UFA, no offer

Redding, UFA, no offer (retires)

Adams, UFA, one year, $2.5m

Wayne, UFA, one year, $2.5m

Hasselbeck, UFA, no offer (retires)

Added $18.9m to 2015 cap (added approx $11.8m to 2016 cap, mostly in non-guaranteed salaries)

New cap position in 2015: $118.9m committed, cap space of $28.8m

 

Extensions

Castonzo, five years, $37.5m, $16m guaranteed, 2015 cap hit of $6.5m (2016 cap hit of $6.5m)

Subtracted $.9m from 2015 cap (added $6.5m to 2016 cap, guaranteed)

New cap position in 2015: $118m committed, cap space of $29.7m

 

Free agent additions

Brandon Graham, OLB – four years, $18m, 2015 cap hit of $4m (2016 cap hit of $4m)

Nick Fairley, DT – four years, $22m, 2015 cap hit of $5m (2016 cap hit of $5m)

Cecil Shorts, WR – one year, $2.5m

Chris Hairston, T – two years, $2m, 2015 cap hit of $1m (2016 cap hit of $1m)

Added $12.5m to 2015 cap (also added $10m to 2016 cap, $9m guaranteed)

New cap position in 2015: $130.5m committed, cap space of $17.2m

 

Draft

1/29: Paul Dawson, ILB/Hybrid, 2015 cap hit of $1.32m; maybe overdrafted, would probably be more of a 40-50 range guy, but would play a nickel backer role with some pass rush ability right away, and can step in as a starter in 2016 at ILB... the keyword, IMO, is playmaker, and I think Dawson qualifies

2/29: Jake Fisher, OT, 2015 cap hit of $.65m; versatile lineman who can play RT or slide in at guard, plays hard, needs some coaching to play tackle in the pros

3/29: Tyler Lockette, WR, 2015 cap hit of $.59m; quick, shifty, tough, technical receiver who can play wide in the slot, can beat defenses downfield, and makes big plays all the time; may drop this far due to questions about his size

4/29: Henry Anderson, DT/DE, 2015 cap hit of $.54m; blue collar, multiple position lineman, perfect fit for our front, has some play-making ability, holds tough against the run, long-term potential

5/29: Adrian Amos, S, 2015 cap hit of $.48m; big, long, rangy coverage safety with versatility to man up, smooth athleticism and play-making ability, but not a great tackler

6/29: Cam Thomas, CB, 2015 cap hit of $.46m; long corner with physical game, good speed, willingness to support the run

6/31: Connor Halliday, QB, 2015 cap hit of $.46m; size and production, gun-slinger with a big arm and lots of potential, though he's turnover prone, got hurt at the end of the 2014 season or else would be a higher prospect

7/28: Corey Grant, RB, 2015 cap hit of $.45m; fast and shifty, though seldom-used behind Artis-Payne, but has scatback potential and the ability to go long at any given time, and can be a return man

Added $5m to 2015 cap (also added about $6m to 2016 cap, about $.9m guaranteed)

New cap position in 2015: $135.5m, cap space of $12.2m

 

Keep in mind, the cap number includes all contracts, not just top 51 contracts. If you go top 51 only, we're probably at about $130m, leaving cap space of nearly $18m going into camp and the start of the season.

 

Best part, my projection shows us around $100m committed to 2016. We'd have potential cuts in D'Qwell Jackson and RJF, which would save over $10m against the cap. The cap is currently projected at $150m in 2016, so we'd be $50m+ below the cap, and that's before any 2015 rollover. We could still extend Hilton, Fleener and Allen prior to the 2015 season, with the increasing cap hits mostly being absorbed into 2016. And then we still have plenty with which to lock down Luck, and still go into every offseason after that with $20-25m in cap space.

 

There's still 20 roster spots available, for late signings and UDFAs. Linemen, TEs, DBs, LBs, etc., have to be brought in. Probably a camp kicker also.

 

Weakness is still at safety. We'd be putting Sergio in the starting lineup, which is adequate, but not ideal. There's room for a free agent, and I'd happily take McCourty, even if it means losing someone else. Seems like a pipe dream, though. Da'Norris Searcy seems more attainable, but he's more of a box safety. He isn't bad in coverage, though.

 

We're also working with some question marks at OL. I think we have plenty of competition at guard and RT. Hairston can swing backup both tackle spots, and Fisher can be the RT of today and tomorrow. Reitz, if he stays healthy, could win either of the spots on the right side.

 

I think we'd get an infusion of talent on both sides of the ball, and maintain fiscal flexibility moving forward. Better pass rush, better coverage in the middle of the field, better at the skills spots on offense, better OL...

 

Thoughts?

[Colts_Fan12]

Love the fairley signing!! But very good mock think this would really help us alot. Like how you have us dumping Gosder and Landry

[Nobody]

Wow, lots of work put into this. Good job as always Supe.

[esmort]

I like it ... haven't made up my mind on Dawson though ... I like him, I just haven't quite decided where/if I think he fits for us... 

 

I can't believe i am going to be the one to ask this as outspoken as I have been about not using a high draft pick on a RB ... but do you think we are going to go into the season with just Herron, Tipton, 7th rnd Grant? 

 

You don't think we will put more resources into S spot?

 

You don't think they will bring Hasselbeck back for one more season?

[Superman]

I like it ... haven't made up my mind on Dawson though ... I like him, I just haven't quite decided where/if I think he fits for us...

I can't believe i am going to be the one to ask this as outspoken as I have been about not using a high draft pick on a RB ... but do you think we are going to go into the season with just Herron, Tipton, 7th rnd Grant?

You don't think we will put more resources into S spot?

You don't think they will bring Hasselbeck back for one more season?

We can add backs in different ways. UDFAs like always. I just think we need someone who brings some dynamic speed to the position.

At safety, I don't think there are a lot of options. What do you think we could do?

On Hasselbeck, he's welcome at the right price. Like, half of what he's been making.

[esmort]

We can add backs in different ways. UDFAs like always. I just think we need someone who brings some dynamic speed to the position.

 

Fair enough I can get onboard with that if there doesn't happen to be someone there in later rounds.

 

At safety, I don't think there are a lot of options. What do you think we could do?

 

I agree there we don't have a ton of options. I don't think Sergio Brown did horrible, and am willing to give him a chance ... Devin McCourty is most likely unrealistic ... If they decide the draft isn't the way to go for S, than I think they have to look at someone in FA ... maybe Da'Norris Searcy like you mentioned, or Rahim Moore, 

 

On Hasselbeck, he's welcome at the right price. Like, half of what he's been making.

I think I would be willing to go one more year at his current salary.

[Defjamz26]

Really like draft picks 4-6. All guys I saw us targeting as well. Me and you have talked about Dawson in another topic,and my thoughts remain the same with him. If you're looking ILB who is also BPA that early,I'd look at Eric Kendricks.

[Track Guy]

2/29: Jake Fisher, OT, 2015 cap hit of $.65m; versatile lineman who can play RT or slide in at guard, plays hard, needs some coaching to play tackle in the pros

3/29: Tyler Lockette, WR, 2015 cap hit of $.59m; quick, shifty, tough, technical receiver who can play wide in the slot, can beat defenses downfield, and makes big plays all the time; may drop this far due to questions about his size

4/29: Henry Anderson, DT/DE, 2015 cap hit of $.54m; blue collar, multiple position lineman, perfect fit for our front, has some play-making ability, holds tough against the run, long-term potential

 

I would be absolutely pumped if we swung these picks in rounds 2-4. I like all 3.

[GoColts00]

Starting cap position in 2015: $118.1m committed, cap space of $29.6m (assuming $140m cap + 2014 rollover of $7.7m, including all contracts)

 

Releases

Cherilus, saves $4m in 2015 and $4.1m in 2016 (post-June 1)

Landry, saves $4m in 2015 and $6m in 2016 (post-June 1)

Thomas, saves $3.25m in 2015, $3.75m in 2016

Richardson, saves $3.2m in 2015

Cribbs, saves $.97m

Phillips, saves $2.65

Total saved: $18.1m in 2015, $13.9 in 2016, $32m total

New cap position in 2015: $100m committed, cap space of $47.7m

 

Free agent retentions

McNary, ERFA, waive rights

Nixon, ERFA tender, $.585m

Herron, ERFA tender, $.585m

Adongo, ERFA tender, $.585m

Pendleton, RFA tender original round, $1.33m

Overton, RFA, extend, three years, $2.9m, 2015 cap hit of $.8m

Freeman, RFA, extend, three years, $9m, 2015 cap hit of $2.65m

Howell, RFA, no offer

Shipley, RFA tender original round, $1.33m

Gordy, UFA, no offer

Reitz, UFA, extend, two years, $3.75m, 2015 cap hit of $1.5m

Anderson, UFA, no offer

Brown, UFA, extend, two years, $3.5m, 2015 cap hit of $1.5m

Nicks, UFA, no offer

Moala, UFA, no offer

Butler, UFA, two years, $6.5m, 2015 cap hit of $3m

Studebaker, UFA, no offer

Bradshaw, UFA, no offer

Redding, UFA, no offer (retires)

Adams, UFA, one year, $2.5m

Wayne, UFA, one year, $2.5m

Hasselbeck, UFA, no offer (retires)

Added $18.9m to 2015 cap (added approx $11.8m to 2016 cap, mostly in non-guaranteed salaries)

New cap position in 2015: $118.9m committed, cap space of $28.8m

 

Extensions

Castonzo, five years, $37.5m, $16m guaranteed, 2015 cap hit of $6.5m (2016 cap hit of $6.5m)

Subtracted $.9m from 2015 cap (added $6.5m to 2016 cap, guaranteed)

New cap position in 2015: $118m committed, cap space of $29.7m

 

Free agent additions

Brandon Graham, OLB – four years, $18m, 2015 cap hit of $4m (2016 cap hit of $4m)

Nick Fairley, DT – four years, $22m, 2015 cap hit of $5m (2016 cap hit of $5m)

Cecil Shorts, WR – one year, $2.5m

Chris Hairston, T – two years, $2m, 2015 cap hit of $1m (2016 cap hit of $1m)

Added $12.5m to 2015 cap (also added $10m to 2016 cap, $9m guaranteed)

New cap position in 2015: $130.5m committed, cap space of $17.2m

 

Draft

1/29: Paul Dawson, ILB/Hybrid, 2015 cap hit of $1.32m; maybe overdrafted, would probably be more of a 40-50 range guy, but would play a nickel backer role with some pass rush ability right away, and can step in as a starter in 2016 at ILB... the keyword, IMO, is playmaker, and I think Dawson qualifies

2/29: Jake Fisher, OT, 2015 cap hit of $.65m; versatile lineman who can play RT or slide in at guard, plays hard, needs some coaching to play tackle in the pros

3/29: Tyler Lockette, WR, 2015 cap hit of $.59m; quick, shifty, tough, technical receiver who can play wide in the slot, can beat defenses downfield, and makes big plays all the time; may drop this far due to questions about his size

4/29: Henry Anderson, DT/DE, 2015 cap hit of $.54m; blue collar, multiple position lineman, perfect fit for our front, has some play-making ability, holds tough against the run, long-term potential

5/29: Adrian Amos, S, 2015 cap hit of $.48m; big, long, rangy coverage safety with versatility to man up, smooth athleticism and play-making ability, but not a great tackler

6/29: Cam Thomas, CB, 2015 cap hit of $.46m; long corner with physical game, good speed, willingness to support the run

6/31: Connor Halliday, QB, 2015 cap hit of $.46m; size and production, gun-slinger with a big arm and lots of potential, though he's turnover prone, got hurt at the end of the 2014 season or else would be a higher prospect

7/28: Corey Grant, RB, 2015 cap hit of $.45m; fast and shifty, though seldom-used behind Artis-Payne, but has scatback potential and the ability to go long at any given time, and can be a return man

Added $5m to 2015 cap (also added about $6m to 2016 cap, about $.9m guaranteed)

New cap position in 2015: $135.5m, cap space of $12.2m

 

Keep in mind, the cap number includes all contracts, not just top 51 contracts. If you go top 51 only, we're probably at about $130m, leaving cap space of nearly $18m going into camp and the start of the season.

 

Best part, my projection shows us around $100m committed to 2016. We'd have potential cuts in D'Qwell Jackson and RJF, which would save over $10m against the cap. The cap is currently projected at $150m in 2016, so we'd be $50m+ below the cap, and that's before any 2015 rollover. We could still extend Hilton, Fleener and Allen prior to the 2015 season, with the increasing cap hits mostly being absorbed into 2016. And then we still have plenty with which to lock down Luck, and still go into every offseason after that with $20-25m in cap space.

 

There's still 20 roster spots available, for late signings and UDFAs. Linemen, TEs, DBs, LBs, etc., have to be brought in. Probably a camp kicker also.

 

Weakness is still at safety. We'd be putting Sergio in the starting lineup, which is adequate, but not ideal. There's room for a free agent, and I'd happily take McCourty, even if it means losing someone else. Seems like a pipe dream, though. Da'Norris Searcy seems more attainable, but he's more of a box safety. He isn't bad in coverage, though.

 

We're also working with some question marks at OL. I think we have plenty of competition at guard and RT. Hairston can swing backup both tackle spots, and Fisher can be the RT of today and tomorrow. Reitz, if he stays healthy, could win either of the spots on the right side.

 

I think we'd get an infusion of talent on both sides of the ball, and maintain fiscal flexibility moving forward. Better pass rush, better coverage in the middle of the field, better at the skills spots on offense, better OL...

 

Thoughts?

I think you did an outstanding job on this! I would still take Kendricks over Dawson, but overall a really good scenario you've done.

[Bluefire4]

Nick Fairley? Yuck! Would rather have Dan Williams. He fits better and has more upside.

[COLTS449]

Very nice mock Superman, but I really hope we don't go after a Brandon Graham type OLB. I just think we have enough mediocre pass rushers, and if we add one I think it needs to be a guy like Orakpo who can give us double digit sacks. I kind of worry about what Mathis will look like next season after the injury. I like the draft, I'd just switch Dawson for Perryman.  I really like Henry Anderson too BTW, and he seems to be a fan favorite on here. I hope he's there in the 4th, but he's a guy I see rising up the boards.

[BProland85]

I would change the Fairley signing to NT Dan Williams. Then I'd hope we try and trade down from the 1st round to get more picks and still get either Perryman or Kendricks at ILB.

[Carl Dzienkiewicz]

Starting cap position in 2015: $118.1m committed, cap space of $29.6m (assuming $140m cap + 2014 rollover of $7.7m, including all contracts)

 

Releases

Cherilus, saves $4m in 2015 and $4.1m in 2016 (post-June 1)

Landry, saves $4m in 2015 and $6m in 2016 (post-June 1)

Thomas, saves $3.25m in 2015, $3.75m in 2016

Richardson, saves $3.2m in 2015

Cribbs, saves $.97m

Phillips, saves $2.65

Total saved: $18.1m in 2015, $13.9 in 2016, $32m total

New cap position in 2015: $100m committed, cap space of $47.7m

 

Free agent retentions

McNary, ERFA, waive rights

Nixon, ERFA tender, $.585m

Herron, ERFA tender, $.585m

Adongo, ERFA tender, $.585m

Pendleton, RFA tender original round, $1.33m

Overton, RFA, extend, three years, $2.9m, 2015 cap hit of $.8m

Freeman, RFA, extend, three years, $9m, 2015 cap hit of $2.65m

Howell, RFA, no offer

Shipley, RFA tender original round, $1.33m

Gordy, UFA, no offer

Reitz, UFA, extend, two years, $3.75m, 2015 cap hit of $1.5m

Anderson, UFA, no offer

Brown, UFA, extend, two years, $3.5m, 2015 cap hit of $1.5m

Nicks, UFA, no offer

Moala, UFA, no offer

Butler, UFA, two years, $6.5m, 2015 cap hit of $3m

Studebaker, UFA, no offer

Bradshaw, UFA, no offer

Redding, UFA, no offer (retires)

Adams, UFA, one year, $2.5m

Wayne, UFA, one year, $2.5m

Hasselbeck, UFA, no offer (retires)

Added $18.9m to 2015 cap (added approx $11.8m to 2016 cap, mostly in non-guaranteed salaries)

New cap position in 2015: $118.9m committed, cap space of $28.8m

 

Extensions

Castonzo, five years, $37.5m, $16m guaranteed, 2015 cap hit of $6.5m (2016 cap hit of $6.5m)

Subtracted $.9m from 2015 cap (added $6.5m to 2016 cap, guaranteed)

New cap position in 2015: $118m committed, cap space of $29.7m

 

Free agent additions

Brandon Graham, OLB – four years, $18m, 2015 cap hit of $4m (2016 cap hit of $4m)

Nick Fairley, DT – four years, $22m, 2015 cap hit of $5m (2016 cap hit of $5m)

Cecil Shorts, WR – one year, $2.5m

Chris Hairston, T – two years, $2m, 2015 cap hit of $1m (2016 cap hit of $1m)

Added $12.5m to 2015 cap (also added $10m to 2016 cap, $9m guaranteed)

New cap position in 2015: $130.5m committed, cap space of $17.2m

 

Draft

1/29: Paul Dawson, ILB/Hybrid, 2015 cap hit of $1.32m; maybe overdrafted, would probably be more of a 40-50 range guy, but would play a nickel backer role with some pass rush ability right away, and can step in as a starter in 2016 at ILB... the keyword, IMO, is playmaker, and I think Dawson qualifies

2/29: Jake Fisher, OT, 2015 cap hit of $.65m; versatile lineman who can play RT or slide in at guard, plays hard, needs some coaching to play tackle in the pros

3/29: Tyler Lockette, WR, 2015 cap hit of $.59m; quick, shifty, tough, technical receiver who can play wide in the slot, can beat defenses downfield, and makes big plays all the time; may drop this far due to questions about his size

4/29: Henry Anderson, DT/DE, 2015 cap hit of $.54m; blue collar, multiple position lineman, perfect fit for our front, has some play-making ability, holds tough against the run, long-term potential

5/29: Adrian Amos, S, 2015 cap hit of $.48m; big, long, rangy coverage safety with versatility to man up, smooth athleticism and play-making ability, but not a great tackler

6/29: Cam Thomas, CB, 2015 cap hit of $.46m; long corner with physical game, good speed, willingness to support the run

6/31: Connor Halliday, QB, 2015 cap hit of $.46m; size and production, gun-slinger with a big arm and lots of potential, though he's turnover prone, got hurt at the end of the 2014 season or else would be a higher prospect

7/28: Corey Grant, RB, 2015 cap hit of $.45m; fast and shifty, though seldom-used behind Artis-Payne, but has scatback potential and the ability to go long at any given time, and can be a return man

Added $5m to 2015 cap (also added about $6m to 2016 cap, about $.9m guaranteed)

New cap position in 2015: $135.5m, cap space of $12.2m

 

Keep in mind, the cap number includes all contracts, not just top 51 contracts. If you go top 51 only, we're probably at about $130m, leaving cap space of nearly $18m going into camp and the start of the season.

 

Best part, my projection shows us around $100m committed to 2016. We'd have potential cuts in D'Qwell Jackson and RJF, which would save over $10m against the cap. The cap is currently projected at $150m in 2016, so we'd be $50m+ below the cap, and that's before any 2015 rollover. We could still extend Hilton, Fleener and Allen prior to the 2015 season, with the increasing cap hits mostly being absorbed into 2016. And then we still have plenty with which to lock down Luck, and still go into every offseason after that with $20-25m in cap space.

 

There's still 20 roster spots available, for late signings and UDFAs. Linemen, TEs, DBs, LBs, etc., have to be brought in. Probably a camp kicker also.

 

Weakness is still at safety. We'd be putting Sergio in the starting lineup, which is adequate, but not ideal. There's room for a free agent, and I'd happily take McCourty, even if it means losing someone else. Seems like a pipe dream, though. Da'Norris Searcy seems more attainable, but he's more of a box safety. He isn't bad in coverage, though.

 

We're also working with some question marks at OL. I think we have plenty of competition at guard and RT. Hairston can swing backup both tackle spots, and Fisher can be the RT of today and tomorrow. Reitz, if he stays healthy, could win either of the spots on the right side.

 

I think we'd get an infusion of talent on both sides of the ball, and maintain fiscal flexibility moving forward. Better pass rush, better coverage in the middle of the field, better at the skills spots on offense, better OL...

 

Thoughts?

obviously a lot of work put in to your draft-------what do you think of this draft sans free agents and trades 1--- eli Harold olb virginia

2----cory robinson ot scarolina

3---rakim green ilb Georgia

4-- ledarius gunter cb Miami

5-- tony chickalo de Miami

6--Adrian amos-- s penn st.

6-- Devante davis-- wr unlv

7--ryan varga---fb yale----worth the pick

[Superman]

Dawson over Kendricks because he's going to be better in coverage and does a better job of staying clean on the way to the ball. Over Perryman because of coverage and size.

And not only am I not on the Dan Williams bandwagon, I don't think he's a need. We have several players who can play nose with no pass rush for 25 snaps a game. That is not a dynamic change for our defense, and I don't think nose is our issue anyways.

Fairley is a 45 snap/game guy who is good against the run and can pass rush. That's the player our front doesn't have.

[Superman]

Very nice mock Superman, but I really hope we don't go after a Brandon Graham type OLB. I just think we have enough mediocre pass rushers, and if we add one I think it needs to be a guy like Orakpo who can give us double digit sacks. I kind of worry about what Mathis will look like next season after the injury. I like the draft, I'd just switch Dawson for Perryman. I really like Henry Anderson too BTW, and he seems to be a fan favorite on here. I hope he's there in the 4th, but he's a guy I see rising up the boards.

Graham isn't a mediocre pass rusher. He's a really good pass rusher, was one of the most efficient last season, in limited time. And without the recent injury history of Orakpo, though he did have microfracture a few years ago.

I'd prefer to add a pass rusher in the draft, really. My thinking would be a trade down, but I don't like mocking trades. Nate Orchard would be awesome.

[James Ducheteau]

I like the job you've done here with the exception that i would trade down out of the first and no way i would grab a wide out in this draft, i would fill that position out with udf's and just take the best that comes out of the competition. 

[Gavin]

Pretty accurate picture of what I think happens I think in terms of whos brought back and who is not though truth be told I think I'd like Studebaker back, Not a must by any means but I think he is quality depth though much more valuable on special teams, Anderson is good on special teams as well so I could see him being brought back but I think we move on...Good call, I don't see Cherilus or Landry cut though Post June 1 it would be worth it

 

 

Paul Dawson I like but I agree he is more a 50's area pick

 

Love the Lockette pick

 

Love the Fisher pick

 

Not high on the Anderson pick even long term, I watched him get handled well one on one to many times vs Tackles and TE's, Not sure he has enough upside or long term potential to warrant a pick

 

http://www.draftbreakdown.com/gif-embed/?clip=254405&gif=BlushingUnsteadyFlyingfox

 

 

Here he is at LDE, Not really sure he has the bulk in his lower body to hold up against Tackles in the NFL, I do like his potential as a pass rusher though, shows a nice swim move but I don't think he is for us

 

Don't know enough about Amos to comment

 

Love the Cam Thomas pick at that spot

 

Rather get a vet QB for depth purposes, If Hasselbeck retires and Luck goes down I want to try to avoid 2011 all over again...At least the torture that it was to watch them, If we go 2-14 in that type of unfortunate circumstance  I don't want to watch some rookie late round pick try to make the play on the field look competent, Rather get some QB who may have failed somewhere else but has experience and that can give us a chance to look respectable

 

Don't know enough about Grant to comment

[DougDew]

Very good

But...would rather have Jared Odrick over Nick Fairley and Jeremy Parnell over Chris Hairston.

Draft Jaquiski Tartt S, in the 3rd, and draft Lockette in the 2nd.

I like the Dawson and Anderson picks....but we could probably still trade down a bit and get Dawson, since the other guys, Perryman and Kendricks, will be the focus of some hype, IMO.

[Superman]

I like the job you've done here with the exception that i would trade down out of the first and no way i would grab a wide out in this draft, i would fill that position out with udf's and just take the best that comes out of the competition.

It's still early, but my preference is a trade down also, based on today's popular rankings.

As for the WR, yeah that's just a fundamental disagreement.

[Superman]

Pretty accurate picture of what I think happens I think in terms of whos brought back and who is not though truth be told I think I'd like Studebaker back, Not a must by any means but I think he is quality depth though much more valuable on special teams, Anderson is good on special teams as well so I could see him being brought back but I think we move on...Good call, I don't see Cherilus or Landry cut though Post June 1 it would be worth it

Paul Dawson I like but I agree he is more a 50's area pick

Love the Lockette pick

Love the Fisher pick

Not high on the Anderson pick even long term, I watched him get handled well one on one to many times vs Tackles and TE's, Not sure he has enough upside or long term potential to warrant a pick

http://www.draftbreakdown.com/gif-embed/?clip=254405&gif=BlushingUnsteadyFlyingfox

Here he is at LDE, Not really sure he has the bulk in his lower body to hold up against Tackles in the NFL, I do like his potential as a pass rusher though, shows a nice swim move but I don't think he is for us

Don't know enough about Amos to comment

Love the Cam Thomas pick at that spot

Rather get a vet QB for depth purposes, If Hasselbeck retires and Luck goes down I want to try to avoid 2011 all over again...At least the torture that it was to watch them, If we go 2-14 in that type of unfortunate circumstance I don't want to watch some rookie late round pick try to make the play on the field look competent, Rather get some QB who may have failed somewhere else but has experience and that can give us a chance to look respectable

Don't know enough about Grant to comment

We can add back special teamers on minimum contracts later in the process. Anderson is more of a candidate than Studebaker, IMO.

Anderson has some work to do, but a 4th rounder at the end of the bench playing spot duty and special teams, and with long-term potential, I think that's worth the pick. And it's his pass rush potential that really intrigues me.

I'm okay with a vet QB at the right price. Even if it's Hasselbeck again. I just don't think he's worth the premium anymore.

[coltsfanatic24]

I don't think Cherilus should be cut, when he was healthy he was great for us. Solid draft, front 7 definitely needs to be upgraded and in the 2nd round I would want another defensive player.

 

 As far as free agency, I'm not sure I would sign any big time names like Fairley. Luck, Castonzo, Hilton, Allen, and Fleener are all due for contract extensions. 

[Gavin]

We can add back special teamers on minimum contracts later in the process. Anderson is more of a candidate than Studebaker, IMO.

Anderson has some work to do, but a 4th rounder at the end of the bench playing spot duty and special teams, and with long-term potential, I think that's worth the pick. And it's his pass rush potential that really intrigues me.

I'm okay with a vet QB at the right price. Even if it's Hasselbeck again. I just don't think he's worth the premium anymore.

 My thing is having a late round rookie ya more then likely know what your getting if Luck goes down....2011 all over again, I'd pay 3 mill per year for a backup vet like Dan Orlovsky (I know he wasn't good with us in 2011 but I still stand by he is better then what he showed running Mannings system) or Matt Moore...If it saves us from a 2011 repeat and its not to pricey Im for it

[Superman]

I don't think Cherilus should be cut, when he was healthy he was great for us. Solid draft, front 7 definitely needs to be upgraded and in the 2nd round I would want another defensive player.

As far as free agency, I'm not sure I would sign any big time names like Fairley. Luck, Castonzo, Hilton, Allen, and Fleener are all due for contract extensions.

Did you look at the cap projections in the first post? I know there was a lot in that post, but I addressed the cap implications head on. Unless you think Fairley will get significantly more than that, there's no issue.

Cherilus was never great for us. He was pretty good in pass pro, but barely average as a run blocker. And I don't believe he'll be healthy again. I think we should cut bait and turn the page.

I also don't subscribe to the idea that we need to do certain things in certain rounds.

[21isSuperman]

Are you concerned at all with Fairley's work ethic and inconsistency?

[Superman]

My thing is having a late round rookie ya more then likely know what your getting if Luck goes down....2011 all over again, I'd pay 3 mill per year for a backup vet like Dan Orlovsky (I know he wasn't good with us in 2011 but I still stand by he is better then what he showed running Mannings system) or Matt Moore...If it saves us from a 2011 repeat and its not to pricey Im for it

If Luck goes down for an extended period, it doesn't really matter who the backup is. If he goes down for a month, then we're hoping for a guy who can handle things and maybe go 2-2. I don't think of Matt Moore or Orlovsky there. But any vet backup will probably be in the $2-3m range. I'd prefer either Hasselbeck, who already knows the program, or a young guy who can potentially become a player and maybe fetch something in a trade.

That's why I like Halliday. He's a midround talent, at least. Maybe first round in a weak draft like this one. It's only his ankle injury that might push him into the later rounds. Give him a couple years, especially if he had to man the position for a month for some reason (knock on wood), and he might have some value. Think good Matt Schaub.

[pacolts56]

Graham isn't a mediocre pass rusher. He's a really good pass rusher, was one of the most efficient last season, in limited time. And without the recent injury history of Orakpo, though he did have microfracture a few years ago.

I'd prefer to add a pass rusher in the draft, really. My thinking would be a trade down, but I don't like mocking trades. Nate Orchard would be awesome.

Any research / opinion on Lorenzo Mauldin from Louisville?

 

He's said to be a DE who could make the move to 3-4 pass rush OLB and has good run pursuit....and he looks to be a 2nd round guy.

[Superman]

Are you concerned at all with Fairley's work ethic and inconsistency?

A little. He's lost a lot of weight in the past year, and had a good season going before he got hurt. I think he's a playmaker who comes at a discount, as opposed to a JAG who comes at a premium. He'd be our best pass rushing lineman.

[Superman]

Any research / opinion on Lorenzo Mauldin from Louisville?

He's said to be a DE who could make the move to 3-4 pass rush OLB and has good run pursuit....and he looks to be a 2nd round guy.

I like him, too. But I don't think he'll be productive right away, he's a little more of a project.

[The Peytonator]

This looks a lot like the mock I've been thinking about, down to 3 of the first 4 picks. I was toying with the idea of signing Kenrick Ellis and Karl Klug at about 2.5 each, but your post has forced me to reconsider in favor of Fairley. He could definitely take over the Redding role as DE, I just fear that he couldn't hold up taking so many snaps every game. It's up in the air for me.

[Gavin]

Fairley clearly has the skill but I worry about the dudes attitude off the field and work ethic, I like Adrian Clayborn if he checks out healthy

[NewColtsFan]

Free agent additions

Brandon Graham, OLB – four years, $18m, 2015 cap hit of $4m (2016 cap hit of $4m)

Nick Fairley, DT – four years, $22m, 2015 cap hit of $5m (2016 cap hit of $5m)

Cecil Shorts, WR – one year, $2.5m

Chris Hairston, T – two years, $2m, 2015 cap hit of $1m (2016 cap hit of $1m)

Added $12.5m to 2015 cap (also added $10m to 2016 cap, $9m guaranteed)

New cap position in 2015: $130.5m committed, cap space of $17.2m

 

Who is Chris Hairston?    I just visited NFL.com and there's no one by that name listed as a free agent at any position.

 

I even checked for any Hairston and there's none.   And none of the guys named Chris seem to be who you're talking about.

 

So, if there is a Chris Hairston,  I think he's not a free agent.

 

As to all the rest....    You've done your usual amazing job....    I'll share some thoughts in a post later today or tomorrow...

[Superman]

Who is Chris Hairston? I just visited NFL.com and there's no one by that name listed as a free agent at any position.

I even checked for any Hairston and there's none. And none of the guys named Chris seem to be who you're talking about.

So, if there is a Chris Hairston, I think he's not a free agent.

As to all the rest.... You've done your usual amazing job.... I'll share some thoughts in a post later today or tomorrow...

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/chris-hairston/ He's a backup for the Bills. Pretty sure he's a free agent.

[SaturdayAllDay]

All around good mock Superman. Well thought out and well put together!!!

 

The one question I have for this mock; If we had a shot at FS Cody Prewitt at our 2nd round pick (as unlikely as it is), do you think the Colts should pull the trigger on that and shore up our back end a bit as opposed to Jake Fisher, who may be better suited to a guard position anyways? This assumes that we may have to upgrade who we pick up for a FA RT.

 

Thoughts?

[Jdubu]

Starting cap position in 2015: $118.1m committed, cap space of $29.6m (assuming $140m cap + 2014 rollover of $7.7m, including all contracts)

Releases

Cherilus, saves $4m in 2015 and $4.1m in 2016 (post-June 1)

Landry, saves $4m in 2015 and $6m in 2016 (post-June 1)

Thomas, saves $3.25m in 2015, $3.75m in 2016

Richardson, saves $3.2m in 2015

Cribbs, saves $.97m

Phillips, saves $2.65

Total saved: $18.1m in 2015, $13.9 in 2016, $32m total

New cap position in 2015: $100m committed, cap space of $47.7m

Free agent retentions

McNary, ERFA, waive rights

Nixon, ERFA tender, $.585m

Herron, ERFA tender, $.585m

Adongo, ERFA tender, $.585m

Pendleton, RFA tender original round, $1.33m

Overton, RFA, extend, three years, $2.9m, 2015 cap hit of $.8m

Freeman, RFA, extend, three years, $9m, 2015 cap hit of $2.65m

Howell, RFA, no offer

Shipley, RFA tender original round, $1.33m

Gordy, UFA, no offer

Reitz, UFA, extend, two years, $3.75m, 2015 cap hit of $1.5m

Anderson, UFA, no offer

Brown, UFA, extend, two years, $3.5m, 2015 cap hit of $1.5m

Nicks, UFA, no offer

Moala, UFA, no offer

Butler, UFA, two years, $6.5m, 2015 cap hit of $3m

Studebaker, UFA, no offer

Bradshaw, UFA, no offer

Redding, UFA, no offer (retires)

Adams, UFA, one year, $2.5m

Wayne, UFA, one year, $2.5m

Hasselbeck, UFA, no offer (retires)

Added $18.9m to 2015 cap (added approx $11.8m to 2016 cap, mostly in non-guaranteed salaries)

New cap position in 2015: $118.9m committed, cap space of $28.8m

Extensions

Castonzo, five years, $37.5m, $16m guaranteed, 2015 cap hit of $6.5m (2016 cap hit of $6.5m)

Subtracted $.9m from 2015 cap (added $6.5m to 2016 cap, guaranteed)

New cap position in 2015: $118m committed, cap space of $29.7m

Free agent additions

Brandon Graham, OLB – four years, $18m, 2015 cap hit of $4m (2016 cap hit of $4m)

Nick Fairley, DT – four years, $22m, 2015 cap hit of $5m (2016 cap hit of $5m)

Cecil Shorts, WR – one year, $2.5m

Chris Hairston, T – two years, $2m, 2015 cap hit of $1m (2016 cap hit of $1m)

Added $12.5m to 2015 cap (also added $10m to 2016 cap, $9m guaranteed)

New cap position in 2015: $130.5m committed, cap space of $17.2m

Draft

1/29: Paul Dawson, ILB/Hybrid, 2015 cap hit of $1.32m; maybe overdrafted, would probably be more of a 40-50 range guy, but would play a nickel backer role with some pass rush ability right away, and can step in as a starter in 2016 at ILB... the keyword, IMO, is playmaker, and I think Dawson qualifies

2/29: Jake Fisher, OT, 2015 cap hit of $.65m; versatile lineman who can play RT or slide in at guard, plays hard, needs some coaching to play tackle in the pros

3/29: Tyler Lockette, WR, 2015 cap hit of $.59m; quick, shifty, tough, technical receiver who can play wide in the slot, can beat defenses downfield, and makes big plays all the time; may drop this far due to questions about his size

4/29: Henry Anderson, DT/DE, 2015 cap hit of $.54m; blue collar, multiple position lineman, perfect fit for our front, has some play-making ability, holds tough against the run, long-term potential

5/29: Adrian Amos, S, 2015 cap hit of $.48m; big, long, rangy coverage safety with versatility to man up, smooth athleticism and play-making ability, but not a great tackler

6/29: Cam Thomas, CB, 2015 cap hit of $.46m; long corner with physical game, good speed, willingness to support the run

6/31: Connor Halliday, QB, 2015 cap hit of $.46m; size and production, gun-slinger with a big arm and lots of potential, though he's turnover prone, got hurt at the end of the 2014 season or else would be a higher prospect

7/28: Corey Grant, RB, 2015 cap hit of $.45m; fast and shifty, though seldom-used behind Artis-Payne, but has scatback potential and the ability to go long at any given time, and can be a return man

Added $5m to 2015 cap (also added about $6m to 2016 cap, about $.9m guaranteed)

New cap position in 2015: $135.5m, cap space of $12.2m

Keep in mind, the cap number includes all contracts, not just top 51 contracts. If you go top 51 only, we're probably at about $130m, leaving cap space of nearly $18m going into camp and the start of the season.

Best part, my projection shows us around $100m committed to 2016. We'd have potential cuts in D'Qwell Jackson and RJF, which would save over $10m against the cap. The cap is currently projected at $150m in 2016, so we'd be $50m+ below the cap, and that's before any 2015 rollover. We could still extend Hilton, Fleener and Allen prior to the 2015 season, with the increasing cap hits mostly being absorbed into 2016. And then we still have plenty with which to lock down Luck, and still go into every offseason after that with $20-25m in cap space.

There's still 20 roster spots available, for late signings and UDFAs. Linemen, TEs, DBs, LBs, etc., have to be brought in. Probably a camp kicker also.

Weakness is still at safety. We'd be putting Sergio in the starting lineup, which is adequate, but not ideal. There's room for a free agent, and I'd happily take McCourty, even if it means losing someone else. Seems like a pipe dream, though. Da'Norris Searcy seems more attainable, but he's more of a box safety. He isn't bad in coverage, though.

We're also working with some question marks at OL. I think we have plenty of competition at guard and RT. Hairston can swing backup both tackle spots, and Fisher can be the RT of today and tomorrow. Reitz, if he stays healthy, could win either of the spots on the right side.

I think we'd get an infusion of talent on both sides of the ball, and maintain fiscal flexibility moving forward. Better pass rush, better coverage in the middle of the field, better at the skills spots on offense, better OL...

Thoughts?

Well put together but I will say I just do not see Cherlious getting cut this year. I think they wait and see what he plays like this season, maybe draft a back up plan for the future, but I think they keep him. Landry I won't be shocked at all to see him a June 1st cut or maybe just an outright cut. I also think your a little low on Constanza as well. I would guess about a mil/season more. Nick fairly I'd be ok with however his motor runs hot and cold so I hope that works out. Maybe enough escalator clauses put in would help.

I don't know enough about the college ranks to say good or bad but I'd almost just go best defensive player first 3-4 rounds unless there was some offensive player that graded out just so far superior to all the defense left on the board at that time. After the 4th, pick BPA then.

[Superman]

Well put together but I will say I just do not see Cherlious getting cut this year. I think they wait and see what he plays like this season, maybe draft a back up plan for the future, but I think they keep him. Landry I won't be shocked at all to see him a June 1st cut or maybe just an outright cut. I also think your a little low on Constanza as well. I would guess about a mil/season more. Nick fairly I'd be ok with however his motor runs hot and cold so I hope that works out. Maybe enough escalator clauses put in would help.

I don't know enough about the college ranks to say good or bad but I'd almost just go best defensive player first 3-4 rounds unless there was some offensive player that graded out just so far superior to all the defense left on the board at that time. After the 4th, pick BPA then.

I think it's a mistake to keep Cherilus. That's obvious. We'll see what happens.

Castonzo is an interesting case. I don't know if he'd turn down $16m guaranteed for an extra million a year.

We only need 40 snaps a game from Fairley. He'll be subbing with RJF, Kerr, Hughes and Jones. He doesn't have to be an every down lineman in our front. Just go hard for the 60% of snaps he'd be playing.

I said earlier, I don't think we need to do this or that in any round. Just draft good players. I do want young defensive players, but I'm not personally married to any round or order. And based on three years of Grigson draft history, I don't think that's how he sets up his board or approaches the draft. Just hit on the guys he does take, especially early.

[rock8591]

Nick Fairly heavily overrated, mediocre stats for a 4-3 DT, and just a bad teammate all around. Not to mention he doesn't fit the scheme AND spent most of last year injured.

 

I'd give 2 years, 6 million at most.

[Mr.Debonair]

Is Dawson a different mold than Jerry Hughes coming out of TCU or similar? 

[Defjamz26]

Also, how do we know Fairley can play NT? His entire time in the league he's played DT in a 4-3 next to Suh. Not sure how'd he do trying to control the A-Gaps.

[esmort]

Who is Chris Hairston?    I just visited NFL.com and there's no one by that name listed as a free agent at any position.

 

I even checked for any Hairston and there's none.   And none of the guys named Chris seem to be who you're talking about.

 

So, if there is a Chris Hairston,  I think he's not a free agent.

 

As to all the rest....    You've done your usual amazing job....    I'll share some thoughts in a post later today or tomorrow...

 

I think he is a free agent. I had a little trouble finding him at first too.

 

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/6643/chris-hairston

 

http://nfltraderumors.co/2015-nfl-free-agents-list/

[NewColtsFan]

I think he is a free agent. I had a little trouble finding him at first too.

 

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/6643/chris-hairston

 

http://nfltraderumors.co/2015-nfl-free-agents-list/

 

He's definitely with Buffalo....    but the question is....    is he a free agent?

 

Not according to NFL.com....    but Spotrac says his contract is up.....

 

So....   I'm in the middle of no-mans land until I know more.

 

I get the sense that Superman sees him as quality depth,  so he does not appear to be a key to Superman's off-season plan.