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Luck's Regression

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As far as I'm concerned, Arians is almost as much to blame as the O-line. Vertical playbook and almost no rollouts? Really? 

No arguments there. Need to run plays that help our line not look so craptastic! And get the franchise turned into a human pretzel

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I think Luck has had a hand in it but it's okay he's a rookie that's what rookie's do.  I think sometimes people forget if your name isn't Donnie Avery or Reggie Wayne and you are playing a skill poistion for the Colts offense you are pretty much a rookie and rookies make mistakes.  

Agreed, it's amazing how many rookies we have playing key rolls. Yet we're sitting here at 9-5 poised to make the playoffs. Can't wait for next year. This year will be such a learning experience no matter how it turns out

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Overthrows and way too high. Problem is not getting his feet set. Reason for that is his time to throw. Reason for THAT, is our garbage of an o-line.

Check, check, AND check.

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excuse, excuse, AND excuse ....

 

The best find a way to get it done, they dont keep making the same mistakes week after week.

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excuse, excuse, AND excuse ....

The best find a way to get it done, they dont keep making the same mistakes week after week.

You can quote me if your going to mock me. Throwing to high isn't a excuse, it's a observation I agreed with. Same with not setting his feet. The Online being as bad as it is, is the a major factor in this. How is it not Hawkeye? Offensive lines are important for a reason. Do you expect Luck to be nearly perfect while the Oline plays like bottom feeders?

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I'm really sure if the organization thinks that Luck isn't suitable for this system something will be done about it in the offseason. They know much more than we do. If it is simply because of Arians system first off he might be a HC next year somewhere else, and second things can be changed in the off season, even if Arians stays.

Young players will improve so will the team. Lots of things can happen. Some people seem to forget that this is a patchwork team filled many rookies and young players. Completely new systems have been implemented, it takes some teams years to do what the Colts are doing now.

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There have been good points for each side of this discussion. Luck in the last few games has not played great but he has kept us in games. Yes he has made some very questionable decisions and yes at time he is inaccurate. some blame is to our horrible OL. Luck is lucky he hasn't got hurt yet. we gave up 14 pts on offense due to a RB fumbling on the one going in for a score. then the Wayne TD that was nullified by offsetting penalties that the Texans were offside and the OL person assigned to block him held him to make it offsetting penalties.  those 14 point's could have made the difference.

 

How can we complain when we have a winning record. yes it hasn't been pretty but a win is a win and who would have thought after winning two games last year to be in contention to get a playoff spot. i for one like our chances with Luck as our QB I think he will learn from his mistakes which i saw yesterday when he was going down he ate the ball instead of trying to get rid of it and throwing an INT. it shows he is learning from his mistakes. just look at the Jets  where Sanchez stinks and they still can get into the playoffs. here in Maryland they are calling for flacco's head after the Raven's three game skid and he only has gotten the Ravens into the playoffs every year he has been there.

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How can we complain when we have a winning record.

Unfortunately people will always find a reason to complain about something. Even if the Colts miraculously make the Super Bowl this year people will find something to criticize.

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Unfortunately people will always find a reason to complain about something. Even if the Colts miraculously make the Super Bowl this year people will find something to criticize.

Sad but true, lol

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Rodgers is the best example of what an exceptional QB can do with a horrid OL.  Rodgers has been sacked more than Luck.  And Rodgers is 8th to Luck's #1 in hits, at least according to NFL.com, so the pressure is on Rodgers nearly as often as Luck.  And yet Rodgers leads the NFL in QBR, second in TD passes, 5th in completion percentage, and on and on.  Rodgers of course is amongst the best there is in the business. 

 

Luck is struggling with accuracy.  We can blame the OL, play calling, he's a rookie, rookie WRs, whatever, but look at the QB stats and there are many QBs in very similar situaitons, have similar numbers of attempts, sacks, hits, bad OL play, etc.  Luck needs to become more accurate, however that happens, whatever the combination of factors may be causing the problems.  But a 54.6% completion percentage, which is 46% in the last three weeks, must be improved. 

 

 

Sorry....   but there are NO quarterbacks in similar situations.   Not if you're comparing apples to apples.   What other rookie QB has a similar set of circumstances.    None.

 

Why are RG3 and Russell Wilson doing better with their stats?    Because they're not being asked to do nearly as much.   They're in QB friendly systems (Luck is not)   they both have outstanding running games (Luck does not)   they have a better OL (Luck does not)...    it's not even close.

 

And for those who are defending Luck from the comment about his play regressing....   what are you defending?   Of course his play has regressed....  46% completions in the last 3 weeks.   It may not be his fault,  but those are his numbers.   I'm fine if you want to say it's a combination of the Arians system, the bad OL and the running game that barely has to be respected.

 

But you can't argue his play hasn't regressed, because it clearly has.   Assign blame elsewhere,  that's fine,  but Lucks play has been below average,  even in many of the games that he has helped win.

 

Things won't change until next year at the earliest....   but I hope for Andrew's sake, and the sake of fans here, that things do change...   because if they do,  people here will see a dramatically better Andrew Luck....   far better than the one they've seen this year.

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Sorry....   but there are NO quarterbacks in similar situations.   Not if you're comparing apples to apples.   What other rookie QB has a similar set of circumstances.    None.

 

Why are RG3 and Russell Wilson doing better with their stats?    Because they're not being asked to do nearly as much.   They're in QB friendly systems (Luck is not)   they both have outstanding running games (Luck does not)   they have a better OL (Luck does not)...    it's not even close.

 

Apples to apples would be NFL QBs - that's what Luck is.  But ok, look at Weeden or Locker (fewer NFL starts than Luck, I know not a rookie).  There are absolutely teams and QBs - and even rookies - who are statistically comparable to Luck except for one category, and that's passing yards.  But Weeden and Locker have only thrown 5 fewer passes a game than Luck.  Cleveland and Tennessee have worse running games than the Colts.  Titans have one starter left on the OL.  This notion that Luck is somehow unique in his circumstance this season is simply not true.  NFL OL's are in shambles all over the place.  There are teams with horrid WRs.  There are bad running games to support QBs.  There are teams with rookies in key roles.  There are teams who pass as much or nearly as much. 

 

I love Luck.  I'm thrilled the Colts got him.  I think there is no ceiling on him.  But there are clear areas which need to be improved.  And I'm sure they will.  This wasn't going to be rebuilt in a year, Luck can't be a 5 year vet after 14 games.  But Luck has to become more accurate, and turn the ball over less.  He actually says those exact things himself, in more pressers than not.  Those aren't bizarre theories, they are backed up by on field results.  Don't mistake this for complaining or expecting perfection - again, I can't believe the great fortune the Colts had in getting Luck.  His resilience and leadership and ability to make something out of nothing I do not believe could have been accomplished by any other rookie, and almost all the vets too.  But he shouldn't be canonized yet either.

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Everyone is entitled to their opinion. Such as this thread. It is true that he has regressed, if you are looking at stats over the last three games. I immediately say in my mind...."so?" If he were to throw a TD in a series and then take part in a 3 and out in the next series...one could also say that he has regressed over that time period. Again I would say...."so?"

Tell me he has regressed in year three after the first two, and I would find the conversation perhaps more interesting to me. To each his or her own, I guess. Anyway....carry on.

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I hate to say this, but I have a sneaking suspicion that Luck is banged up right now. Perhaps a rib injury that will come out when the Colts are finished for the season. I remember last year when Ryan Fitzpatrick signed his big deal and then started playing poorly after that, it came out after the season that he sustained a couple of fractured ribs by a hit by London Fletcher. It is just a theory. At the same time, however, he is a rookie and the later in the season it gets, the more film looks our opponents have on him. It's all about experience; he will continue to progress.

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That is definitly a concern I have with Luck taking all these shots, He has been listed as having a knee issue, personally I dont think its just a gamesmanship thing either the reason he is listed on it, I think there is a an issue even if its a minor one

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That is definitly a concern I have with Luck taking all these shots, He has been listed as having a knee issue, personally I dont think its just a gamesmanship thing either the reason he is listed on it, I think there is a an issue even if its a minor one

They have said he gets treatment on his knee each week which is why he's on the injury report so there is something there but they have stressed it's very minor and not something to be really concerned about.  With that said all these hits can easily make it something to be concerned about.

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They have said he gets treatment on his knee each week which is why he's on the injury report so there is something there but they have stressed it's very minor and not something to be really concerned about.  With that said all these hits can easily make it something to be concerned about.

O Line HAS to be top priority in the offseason, truthfully I dont think many people really ever want it to be because its not a 'sexy' position to want to fill but when your franchise QB is getting treated like a human pin cushion game in and game out then it has to be top priority

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If you want to talk about regression look at joe flacco and eli manning both are having forgetable years

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Why is it that any analysis or comment on Luck's play that is not 100% positive or in the least bit critical (even constructively so)is immediately met by such a hostile defensive stance by so many fans? The OP had some valid observations and was not attacking Luck, but was burned at the stake by many posters.

Although "regression" may not be the most accurate description ... there is certainly a lack of progression in many areas.

-His accuracy has not progressed much over the course of the season.

-He has had a bad habit all season of staring down receivers.

-He does not effectively use the pump fake or "look off defenders" to help receivers get open.

-He rarely utilizes his check downs (which many times are there and open).

*-Prior to the Houston game forcing bad passes instead of taking the sack or throwing the ball away would have been on this list. He did an outstanding job in this area during the Texans game and hopefully this remains an area of progression.

As a few posters have pointed out there are likely several contributing factors to these problems, but Luck has to bear his share of the responsibility; you can not lay it all off on O-Line, scheme, BA, etc ...

The positive side of all this is that if you look at how amazing he is playing as a rookie with these areas of his game that still need work, than he truly does have the potential to be one of the elite as he improves in these areas over the next few years.

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First, let me start off by stating that I am the biggest Luck supporter. I work at Stanford and have watched him play all throughout his college career and couldn't be more happy that of all of the NFL teams he could have joined, he joined the Colts, my favorite NFL team.

 

This is not meant to be a thread to gripe about Luck; rather, a thread to honestly evaluate his progress.

 

In order to honestly evaluate his progress, I must first admit that the offensive system does not suit his style of play. If it wasn't for his incredible ability to avoid the rush without taking his eyes off downfield, he wouldn't complete any passes. I will also admit that we have one of the worst O-lines in the entire league. And lastly, I will admit that he is a rookie and so is his offensive supporting cast of receivers and TEs, which will usually lend itself to making mistakes.

 

Luck's low completion percentage is an issue, despite the afformentioned reasons. We can claim that the system calls for numerous downfield throws, but in reality, there are numerous shorter routes that Luck simply dismisses, opting and waiting for the downfield completion. If we are to honestly evaluate Luck, we have to admit that he can make some better decisions. He has regressed in this area tremendously over the last 4 games. He's now either at or below 50% completion over this span, which includes games against the defenses of the Bills, Lions, and Titans, no worldbeaters. Is this okay, either with Luck or Arians? Something has to change, right?  Furthermore, there is no area on the field where he averages greater than 65.7% completion (this happens to be throws behind the LOS). He averages 61.9% completion when throwing 1-10 yards past the LOS, which is still very low.

 

Luck has been pressured, more than any QB in the league. Thankfully, he is very good at avoiding the rush. That's a great strength, but at times it is negated by Luck's innacuracy. He'll avoid the pressure, step up and throw the ball well over the intended receiver's head, sometimes by 10 feet over. Sometimes it will be well behind the receiver. What ever it is, I get excited to see that he avoids the pressure, only to see him make a bad throw. I wish he'd be more accurate. (I am aware of the relentless pressure, but once it's avoided, it's simply completing the pass, which is an issue here). This isn't referring to when he's faced with pressure and throws in the face of pressure, which is difficult for any QB. This is referring to after avoiding pressure, or sometimes standing in the pocket and missing the open receiver.

 

The amount of turnovers for Luck is also too high. I am sure that everyone would agree with me that some of the INT's are okay because Luck has to attempt to make plays in order for the team to win. So it's a byproduct of the Colts being too reliant on Luck. However, there are times when he could've  made better throws and better decisions. He's had numerous 3-interception games.

 

Some will be upset with this evaluation, and that's fine. Please know that I know all of the reasons why he's struggled some, but that doesn't mean that Luck is beyond criticism. I would like to know how you would evaluate him so far.

 

Overall, I think he's amazing, but wish he would do some things better or Arian's does some things differently. I wouldn't trade him for anyone, and would choose him #1 all over again if that were possible.

good analysis. i will say this, I think we are all so much more critical of him because of the other rookie QB's in the league who are doing so well. he has a higher standard to reach. also, we are used to winning, winning, winning (except last year). i think everything is skewed a bit due to those reasons. luck is going to only get better. he really beats himself up (inside) when mistakes are made. I just can tell he does and I'm sure you can too. hang in there, he IS the real deal, but he IS still really young and trying to play in the NFL is never easy for someone like him, at first.

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I haven't looked at the stats to know the specifics, but I know that Eli Manning is having a very rough year too. He has had I believe a couple of games now where he is under 50% completion percentage and has not been having the MVP type season he had last year. I suppose you can call that "regression," but I think it is a combination of things that are all contributing to him struggling this season instead of last, not that he has suddenly forgotten how to play the QB position.

 

I think that is why some in this thread are taking offense to some others who say Luck has regressed. I have no problem with saying he has regressed from a purely statistical category, because he has. There is no arguing with the numbers. However, some have said that Luck is not playing smart football and is now playing dumb football, Brett Farve football, etc. etc. I don't think that is accurrate and it is an oversimplification. Luck did not forget how to play the QB position, just like Eli didn't forget this year. The notion that he is now playing dumb football but was not back in Game 1 or back at Stanford simply isn't true. Sure he is hurrying, forcing throws, and staring down receivers, but these are common rookie mistakes when rookies must adapt from playing something such as Pac-10 football to playing in the National Football League. This was already pointed out by other posters-- it is part of the process. It is certainly not "dumb football," unless of course you are saying that the scheme itself sucks, which has debated in detail and is another subject entirely. Just like Eli, the reason Luck has "regressed" can be contributed to a lot of factors.

 

As far as lack of progression, I think the only part of Luck's game that he maybe has not shown the desired improvement is that he still is too enamored with Reggie Wayne and stares him down until he gets open. Otherwise, I think all of the other problems will be fixed by improving the horrid O-line we have right now.  

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I cannot believe fans of the Colts think Luck is regressing. It is an absurd notion. He is overcoming tremendous pressure and adversity and winning games despite all the other flaws this young fledgling team has. Did no one watch the last 4 mins of the Lions game? Did we not see him beat the Titans. Did we not watch him construct what was effectively 4 scoring drives v one of the premier teams in the league, away from home whilst running for his life?

We have watched Peyton struggle at times here, with an o-line much better than we have now. Why is it that he never got this much negativity, yet he was a 10 year MVP level player. Luck is holding this young team together, and should be applauded from the rafters. Those who disagree have a hidden agenda.

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Say what you will but you cannot deny Luck's natural ability and intelligence. My criticism is he sails the ball (.high passes)and this will pass with time. After losing Manning and watching Painter last year you must know we are truley blessed, just be patient.

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The colts are 9-5. O-Line is garbage, our D doesn't create many TOs & many of the offensive players are rooks, too. Plus our Head Coach has been busy w/ slightly more important things. I question Bruce's decision making sometimes but all things considered, the entire staff has done a heckuva job.

 

Luck makes mistakes, sure, but to think that he's regressing is kind of silly.

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Other teams are doing what every team hopes to do.  Hit the QB early and often  Rattle his cage then he will not be able focus or finish the game with any confidence.  Teams just have to cover our receivers for a few seconds knowing their pass rush will  take care of anything beyond 2-3 seconds they're draped on our receivers.  Since receivers aren't open, Luck is staring them down until a window opens, then he delivers.  Often not accurately and sometimes too late. Fortunately, Luck is fairly decent wityh amnesia, but it still gets to him, as it does to all QB's.

 

Seems a shame we would have talk to adjust our playbook to accommodate the (lack of) skills of a poor O line, and not be taking advantage of the talents of the other skill players.  Play to our strengths, and fix the weakness.

 

There are a lot of teams with bad O lines.  The pond is large, the number of good in there fish small.  I hope we can catch our share this off season.

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Sorry....   but there are NO quarterbacks in similar situations.   Not if you're comparing apples to apples.   What other rookie QB has a similar set of circumstances.    None.

 

Why are RG3 and Russell Wilson doing better with their stats?    Because they're not being asked to do nearly as much.   They're in QB friendly systems (Luck is not)   they both have outstanding running games (Luck does not)   they have a better OL (Luck does not)...    it's not even close.

 

And for those who are defending Luck from the comment about his play regressing....   what are you defending?   Of course his play has regressed....  46% completions in the last 3 weeks.   It may not be his fault,  but those are his numbers.   I'm fine if you want to say it's a combination of the Arians system, the bad OL and the running game that barely has to be respected.

 

But you can't argue his play hasn't regressed, because it clearly has.   Assign blame elsewhere,  that's fine,  but Lucks play has been below average,  even in many of the games that he has helped win.

 

Things won't change until next year at the earliest....   but I hope for Andrew's sake, and the sake of fans here, that things do change...   because if they do,  people here will see a dramatically better Andrew Luck....   far better than the one they've seen this year.

The running game is improving Vic averaged 5.8 yds per carry in this game,IMO if we had a good OL this kid could be in the 1500 yd range for the year,and our QB wouldnt be taking these hits ,thank the Lord hes durable,but running for your life is not a good foundation for a passing attack  :hmm:

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I cannot believe fans of the Colts think Luck is regressing. It is an absurd notion. He is overcoming tremendous pressure and adversity and winning games despite all the other flaws this young fledgling team has. Did no one watch the last 4 mins of the Lions game? Did we not see him beat the Titans. Did we not watch him construct what was effectively 4 scoring drives v one of the premier teams in the league, away from home whilst running for his life? We have watched Peyton struggle at times here, with an o-line much better than we have now. Why is it that he never got this much negativity, yet he was a 10 year MVP level player. Luck is holding this young team together, and should be applauded from the rafters. Those who disagree have a hidden agenda.

 

 

Preach it.

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HE IS A ROOKIE. HE IS SUPPOSE TO MAKE MISTAKES. JUST BECUZ HE WAS SO HERALDED OUT OF COLLEGE DOESNT MEAN HE WONT HAVE GROWING PAINS IN THE NFL. iF U HAVE A PROBLEM WITH HIM THROWING INT'S , THEN PEYTON MUST NOT HAVE BEEN A GOOD ENOUGH QB FOR YOU CUZ HE THREW A TON HIMSELF. LET HIM GROW UP.

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I really don't think he's been that good these last few weeks, though there are obviously mitigating factors. I'd love to see him given the chance to step up and set himself in the pocket to get a throw off, and also be given more short passes and fewer vertical hurls downfield. I strongly dislike Arians' playbook.

First off...What pocket? 2nd he has a check down/underneath receiver on basically every play in which Luck is more then welcome to use. Its not the playbook, its the Oline..or lack there of.

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First off...What pocket? 2nd he has a check down/underneath receiver on basically every play in which Luck is more then welcome to use. Its not the playbook, its the Oline..or lack there of.

 

Pressure up the middle is getting bad.  The outside edge rush keeps Luck from rolling out, and the interior guys get the hits/sack on Luck. nowhere to step up into most of the time. It is on him so fast, Luck tried to checkdown to Ballard after a play action fake to him, but after seeing the first read was not there, he was crushed as he was finding Ballard just beyond the line of scrimmage.  If you can't get to your second read, a checkdown dump pass, you are in serious trouble.  Our O line puts us in serious trouble. Either the first read is there or it is run for your life and see if you can make a play.  When we double team, we sometimes slow that guy down (even Watt a couple times).  However, all of the D line constantly beat their man when  one on one.  You can't double team everyone of them.  We pay our guys.  Sometimes, they are just going to have to step up and win their battles.  If not, then eventually show them the door and try new faces.  When you get one that works, pay and play him. And keep looking for more. :)

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I hate to say this, but I have a sneaking suspicion that Luck is banged up right now. Perhaps a rib injury that will come out when the Colts are finished for the season. I remember last year when Ryan Fitzpatrick signed his big deal and then started playing poorly after that, it came out after the season that he sustained a couple of fractured ribs by a hit by London Fletcher. It is just a theory. At the same time, however, he is a rookie and the later in the season it gets, the more film looks our opponents have on him. It's all about experience; he will continue to progress.

I think that's a very good point. Luck could very well be injured, partially injured ect. He's been taking some hard hits.

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One thing I don't like is that we often come out flat at the beginning of the game. I think Luck should get in the routine that Manning used to do: get out on the field with someone like Wayne about 2 hours before the game starts and warm up by going through the whole passing route tree.

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I think that's a very good point. Luck could very well be injured, partially injured ect. He's been taking some hard hits.

It could be this, however, I think that as we've seen more injuries to our O-line, we've continued to see added pressure on Luck. This most likely has had a direct correlation to Luck's dip in performance.

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It could be this, however, I think that as we've seen more injuries to our O-line, we've continued to see added pressure on Luck. This most likely has had a direct correlation to Luck's dip in performance.

Agreed. However, the o-line was bad to begin the season. After the injuries, it went from bad to horrid. That performance against the Texans was the worst of the season and one of the worst I can remember ever seeing out of a Colts o-line, and while I understand that J.J. Watt is a beast, it should never be that easy to penetrate a NFL o-line, no matter how bad/injured they are. Just a terrible performance out of the o-line. Like others have said, Luck very well may be a bit banged up at this point after taking so much punishment against the Lions, Titans, and especially the Texans now. The o-line has got to be corrected in the offseason or else there may be more "regression" before there is progression.

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All I have to say is, he played better before Thanksgiving. 

 

However, he's still winning us games and that's all that matters.

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What regression?

Here's a clip from an article written about Luck:

 

"In five games since posting a 69.2 completion percentage in a 27-10 victory against Jacksonville, the Colts signal-caller has completed just 49.5 percent of his passes."

 

To me, it's not a matter of if he has "regressed" but why he may have regressed, statistically speaking. It's fairly obvious now that if we look into the drop in performance of the O-line, from bad to ridiculously horrible, it would account for a large portion of the dip in Luck's performance.

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Here's a clip from an article written about Luck:

"In five games since posting a 69.2 completion percentage in a 27-10 victory against Jacksonville, the Colts signal-caller has completed just 49.5 percent of his passes."

To me, it's not a matter of if he has "regressed" but why he may have regressed, statistically speaking. It's fairly obvious now that if we look into the drop in performance of the O-line, from bad to ridiculously horrible, it would account for a large portion of the dip in Luck's performance.

Wasn't Lucks completion % around 50 before the Jacksonville game? Plus I just have a problem with thinking regression during a rookie season, he and this offense are still finding their way. The Jacksonville game was a highlight of sorts.

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Overthrows and way too high. Problem is not getting his feet set. Reason for that is his time to throw. Reason for THAT, is our garbage of an o-line.

 

yall sit there and blame it all on the offensive line, yes they are bad, but luck is the one throwing the ball. Aaron Rodgers has been sacked the most times in the league, but he has a 66.7 completion % and a 104 qb rating, mark sanchez has a higher completion % then luck for gods sake, and sanchez has a offensive line with 3 pro bowlers on it. Tony romo has a horrible offensive line but he is completing 66.7% of his passes. Im sorry but no matter what coordinator we have. as far as accuracy goes, RG3, Russel Wilson, and brandon weeded are better. Idk if you watch the games, but luck makes some pretty dumb decisions and bad throws, he needs to stop staring down recievers also. being hurried is one thing, but the ball is coming out of his hand. Im sure he will improve next year with a better offensive line

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Wasn't Lucks completion % around 50 before the Jacksonville game? Plus I just have a problem with thinking regression during a rookie season, he and this offense are still finding their way. The Jacksonville game was a highlight of sorts.

You could be right in that regression may not be the best way to describe what we may be seeing with Luck, but there has been an undeniable statistical decline over the past 5 games. Prior to the Jacksonville game, his completion percentage was hovering around 5t%, and now it's below 50%. Again, I don't think it's all on Luck but we can't deny that a completion percentage below 50% is not a good thing. Thankfully, we're still winning games.

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