WR open percentage vs man coverage (Pierce is at the bottom)

[runthepost]

Ranked 111th out of 118th is terrible, this is WRs getting open regardless if they were thrown the ball.

[csmopar]

1 hour ago, runthepost said:

Ranked 111th out of 118th is terrible, this is WRs getting open regardless if they were thrown the ball.

Seems about right

[Indeee]

1 hour ago, runthepost said:

Ranked 111th out of 118th is terrible, this is WRs getting open regardless if they were thrown the ball.

Ummm, but according to most, he was open all year and just was never thrown the ball by a bad QB with a weak arm? 

 

 

[twfish]

I saw this the other day and have been pondering it. Pierce is asked to do the dirty work to open up the rest of the field for everyone else. He runs more vertical routes then anyone else in the league so DB's are likely keying up on that and anticipating a deep route. So he is open about 3 times a game for a deep bomb so that does still validate peoples thought of him being open frequently. All while keeping his DB and a safety away, allowing more space for everyone else.

[DavePSL]

When Pittman was out, Peirce was targeted 7 times and he had 3 for 30. He has a long way to go to improve his route running and ability to separate. We have to bring legit competition for the wr's or AR will have a hell of a time trying to improve our passing game. If coaches thought he could impact the game by running shorter routes, Steichen would have him doing just that. QB's throw to guys they trust and who they feel are open and it's always been that way. Minshew has definitely missed AP on some open routes but it's probably because he just doesn't trust him enough to look his way and also because Minshew is limited. BTW, trust happens in the film room just as much as it happens on game day. Also, they have to be open in a certain amount of time usually under 3 seconds. Watch AP and see if he's open under 3 seconds...I would say rarely............... AP gets open on off schedule plays and that's where AR may help him.

[indyagent17]

3 hours ago, runthepost said:

Ranked 111th out of 118th is terrible, this is WRs getting open regardless if they were thrown the ball.

He has become a great possession receiver. He makes difficult catches, but he’s never had breakaway speed.

[chad72]

If you know anything about percentages, the denominator is everything. If you are running decoy routes most of the time and are not actively being considered for the primary part of the game plan where the goal is to move the sticks, you will be running a LOT of routes without even being considered, biggest factor for the denominator.

 

A better denominator would be if he were targeted or how many times the QB looked his way when the man coverage was played. 

 

So, the truth is somewhere in the middle. 

[BlackTiger]

He was used as a decoy all year running routes meant to draw coverage away from the real priority targets.  You could it see just watching on tv if you are familiar with decoy routes in the first place

 

Every team has someone they use like this but Im not sure I have ever seen anyone do it as much as AP did for us this year.  It might be a record lol

 

Hes not really living up to his draft slot or what we all want out of him but this stat isnt that meaningful given what he was asked to do

[BlackTiger]

5 minutes ago, chad72 said:

you will be running a LOT of routes without even being considered

One could argue that is a bit of a disappointing role for him to be in too.  He was drafted pretty high and people want production out of him

 

Its common for teams to use these decoy routes but its often someone deep on the depth chart while the good players are getting targets 

 

 

[chad72]

27 minutes ago, BlackTiger said:

One could argue that is a bit of a disappointing role for him to be in too.  He was drafted pretty high and people want production out of him

 

Its common for teams to use these decoy routes but its often someone deep on the depth chart while the good players are getting targets 

 

 

A few games earlier in the season, when Minshew free lanced, when he threw it for grabs farther down the field, it did not go well. His arm is not the kind that would split a safety on a post route but he can lead and take advantage of separation in isolation routes.

 

Steichen wised up and asked Minshew to get out of his own way and that is how our run happened. Clock control, move the sticks in the short to intermediate range where Minshew was the most comfortable. He could lead Pierce on deep shots, only when there was an element of surprise but those happened as the season went on and Minshew was more comfortable with his OL protections (remember him dancing around scattered even when OL protection was rock solid??) and what he was seeing on the field, which all matter, IMO.

 

If you look at this chart, which I like for fantasy purposes, Alec Pierce's % of team targets is a low 11.9% (about 1 in 9 throws go to him). There were 65 total targets, 35 catchable targets and he caught 32 of them with 3 drops on the catchable ones. 

 

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/advanced-stats-wr.php

 

Just do a Ctrl + F to find Pierce, if you are on your laptop or desktop.

 

Pittman is 28.6% (about 1 in 4 targets at least), 156 targets, 113 catchable and he caught 110 of them with 3 drops on the catchable ones.

 

Downs is 17.9% (about 1 in 6 targets), 98 total targets, 73 catchable and he caught 70 of them with 3 drops on the catchable ones.

 

[BlackTiger]

59 minutes ago, chad72 said:

A few games earlier in the season, when Minshew free lanced, when he threw it for grabs farther down the field, it did not go well. His arm is not the kind that would split a safety on a post route but he can lead and take advantage of separation in isolation routes.

I do think Minshew was a big factor in this but its fair to wonder if AP is becoming the player we want.  Anyone can run these decoy go routes, they are not getting the ball anyway

[PRnum1]

How can this be ?

 

His RAS score was off the charts !

[chad72]

40 minutes ago, BlackTiger said:

I do think Minshew was a big factor in this but its fair to wonder if AP is becoming the player we want.  Anyone can run these decoy go routes, they are not getting the ball anyway

 

We will find out in Year 3, won't we? If after 3 years, he ain't getting around 15-20% of the target share and averaging at least 50-60 catches for the year, we will have a problem for him to stay at WR2.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

4 hours ago, Indeee said:

Ummm, but according to most, he was open all year and just was never thrown the ball by a bad QB with a weak arm? 

 

 

It was on tape. He was. 3 to 4 times a game wide open.

[GoColts8818]

I am of the camp the Colts should take a WR if one is there at 15, keep Pittman, but also giving Alec one more year to see if it was really the QB that was the issue.

[2006Coltsbestever]

12 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

It was on tape. He was. 3 to 4 times a game wide open.

The problem with this post is, you can say that about at least 1 WR on every team that gets open 3 or 4 times and the QB just doesn't see it or doesn't have time to get them the ball because of being pressured. You just notice it with Pierce because you watched every Colts game closely. Last week against the Chiefs, Zay Flowers was open 15 yards down the field at least 2 or 3 times that I can remember and a QB like Lamar didn't even see it.

[chad72]

26 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

The problem with this post is, you can say that about at least 1 WR on every team that gets open 3 or 4 times and the QB just doesn't see it or doesn't have time to get them the ball because of being pressured. You just notice it with Pierce because you watched every Colts game closely. Last week against the Chiefs, Zay Flowers was open 15 yards down the field at least 2 or 3 times that I can remember and a QB like Lamar didn't even see it.

 

People get open all the time but it doesn't mean that is the designed open area for the play call. The QB has to adhere to the play call, and if a play is broken and the QB has means to extend it, that player getting open will matter. Or the QB has to be on the same page like Mahomes is with Kelce where if a defender is playing a certain coverage, Mahomes knows Kelce will do a certain thing differently than what the defender expects but then Mahomes expects the same too. Plus, yeah, there is this thing where the QB has to have that internal clock accounting for those big half-F150 type bodies running at him (with the momentum), seeing over them all while searching for the open guys.  For all we know, a 3rd or 4th read might be a check down and not take the chance of going for the open guy 20-30 yards down the field with a defender bearing on you chancing a fumble or sack.

 

That also explains why Lamar didn't go for Flowers too. 

[VikingsFanInChennai]

22 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

The problem with this post is, you can say that about at least 1 WR on every team that gets open 3 or 4 times and the QB just doesn't see it or doesn't have time to get them the ball because of being pressured. You just notice it with Pierce because you watched every Colts game closely. Last week against the Chiefs, Zay Flowers was open 15 yards down the field at least 2 or 3 times that I can remember and a QB like Lamar didn't even see it.

Flowers needed to Blossom along the route Tree and release some Pollen to get attention from Lamar. 

 

1 hour ago, PRnum1 said:

How can this be ?

 

His RAS score was off the charts !

That was a Decoy Chart! 

 

 

[MikeCurtis]

At the end of the day I believe Pierce is underused

 

But…… let’s be honest, he is not the dynamic WR that this team needs

 

My hope is that we find that guy in late round 1 after we trade back a few places

 

and pick up another 2nd rounder ( or more)

[chad72]

58 minutes ago, MikeCurtis said:

At the end of the day I believe Pierce is underused

 

But…… let’s be honest, he is not the dynamic WR that this team needs

 

My hope is that we find that guy in late round 1 after we trade back a few places

 

and pick up another 2nd rounder ( or more)

 

Pierce's ceiling is WR2 at best, as there is a limit to his dynamic nature, no doubt about that.

 

From the draft, we need a guy that can play Z and X, IMO, and this draft is rich with those.

 

Both Brian Thomas Jr. and Xavier Legette can do both but Brian Thomas Jr. is a better run blocker, so I would prefer him. Adonai Mitchell is another Pittman, not that it is bad but he is prototypical X, IMO. If run blocking isn't a criteria and you want a lighter guy that can fly, Troy Franklin is your guy. The number of 6'1" - 6'4" WRs in this draft is absolutely outstanding. Even if a team doesn't need a WR badly, getting one by Day 2 will stock their cupboard for future years, IMO.

 

The WRs in this draft can be nicknamed X-Men, primarily  

[richard pallo]

I could get behind the position to keep Pierce for another year but at the same time I think we need to bring in a FA receiver to compete with him.  Someone like Darnell Moody from the Bears who should not be terribly expensive.  I think with AR back then they would both have an opportunity to work with a better quarterback talent.  Given that scenario I would then be supportive of using the 1st pick on Bowers.  Get that TE who can do it all and a position that Shane likes to make a major part of his offense.  I would be in favor of even trading up a few spots just to make sure we get him.  But we need to get that veteran FA wide receiver first to compete with Pierce.  That’s the key for me.

[ArmchairQB]

These Pierce threads all end up devolving the same way.  If you think he has potential nothing will change you mind.  If you think he’s a bust nothing will change your mind.  Looking at this chart that Deandre Hopkins dude sure sucks too. 

[chad72]

27 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

I could get behind the position to keep Pierce for another year but at the same time I think we need to bring in a FA receiver to compete with him.  Someone like Darnell Mooney from the Bears who should not be terribly expensive.  I think with AR back then they would both have an opportunity to work with a better quarterback talent.  Given that scenario I would then be supportive of using the 1st pick on Bowers.  Get that TE who can do it all and a position that Shane likes to make a major part of his offense.  I would be in favor of even trading up a few spots just to make sure we get him.  But we need to get that veteran FA wide receiver first to compete with Pierce.  That’s the key for me.

 

Mooney regressed last year and it wasn't because of Fields. If I am getting a FA, I'd get someone like Tyler Lockett, someone who has a good 2-3 years left. However, his former OC went to the Bears, so they might get him. The other guy I would like to get is Curtis Samuel for the Colts. We had Isaiah McKenzie for those reverses and quick gadget plays (before he was sent packing) but Curtis Samuel would be an upgrade there and can really give us some play making, IMO. 

 

If the reason for you choosing Darnell Mooney is long speed, in that case, to get another outside guy to play in case of injury plus being moved around is Gabriel Davis of Buffalo Bills, he would be a GREAT asset to our offense, IMO. He would cost close to $13-14 mil. per year while Mooney will cost $9-10 mil. but it would be worth it, IMO. You will get what you pay for there.

[VikingsFanInChennai]

1 hour ago, chad72 said:

 

Pierce's ceiling is WR2 at best, as there is a limit to his dynamic nature, no doubt about that.

 

From the draft, we need a guy that can play Z and X, IMO, and this draft is rich with those.

 

Both Brian Thomas Jr. and Xavier Legette can do both but Brian Thomas Jr. is a better run blocker, so I would prefer him. Adonai Mitchell is another Pittman, not that it is bad but he is prototypical X, IMO. If run blocking isn't a criteria and you want a lighter guy that can fly, Troy Franklin is your guy. The number of 6'1" - 6'4" WRs in this draft is absolutely outstanding. Even if a team doesn't need a WR badly, getting one by Day 2 will stock their cupboard for future years, IMO.

 

The WRs in this draft can be nicknamed X-Men, primarily  

X-Men, Y Thou Art Nein Z-Men?  

[chad72]

5 minutes ago, VikingsFanInChennai said:

X-Men, Y Thou Art Nein Z-Men?  

 

 

Es ist was es ist

[VikingsFanInChennai]

31 minutes ago, ArmchairQB said:

These Pierce threads all end up devolving the same way.  If you think he has potential nothing will change you mind.  If you think he’s a bust nothing will change your mind.  Looking at this chart that Deandre Hopkins dude sure sucks too. 

Hopkins never really has to be open, he's a beast in contested ball catches, and catch and run situations with physicality. Tennessee didn't help him by having average QB play and defenses knowing to key in on him with double coverage of needed, he still ended up with 1,000 yards. 

[Superman]

Player Profiler has different numbers charted. They show 382 routes vs man, with a win rate of 27.8%, so that would be 106 times open. I think I'd lean toward the PFF numbers, it's hard to believe that we faced more man coverage than zone coverage this season, but that's just my initial impression.

 

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/alec-pierce/

 

Either way, no one has ever argued that Alec Pierce excels at getting open or is a top notch route runner. 

[runthepost]

1 hour ago, ArmchairQB said:

These Pierce threads all end up devolving the same way.  If you think he has potential nothing will change you mind.  If you think he’s a bust nothing will change your mind.  Looking at this chart that Deandre Hopkins dude sure sucks too. 

Hopkins doubled the yardage of Pierce

[jvan1973]

2 hours ago, chad72 said:

 

Pierce's ceiling is WR2 at best, as there is a limit to his dynamic nature, no doubt about that.

 

From the draft, we need a guy that can play Z and X, IMO, and this draft is rich with those.

 

Both Brian Thomas Jr. and Xavier Legette can do both but Brian Thomas Jr. is a better run blocker, so I would prefer him. Adonai Mitchell is another Pittman, not that it is bad but he is prototypical X, IMO. If run blocking isn't a criteria and you want a lighter guy that can fly, Troy Franklin is your guy. The number of 6'1" - 6'4" WRs in this draft is absolutely outstanding. Even if a team doesn't need a WR badly, getting one by Day 2 will stock their cupboard for future years, IMO.

 

The WRs in this draft can be nicknamed X-Men, primarily  

It's funny you say Pierce has a ceiling of a WR2 and there is no doubt about that.   I'm guessing you have never watched him in practice.   It's odd you came to that absolute conclusion 

[jvan1973]

5 minutes ago, runthepost said:

Hopkins doubled the yardage of Pierce

Hopkins had double the targets 

[richard pallo]

2 hours ago, chad72 said:

 

Mooney regressed last year and it wasn't because of Fields. If I am getting a FA, I'd get someone like Tyler Lockett, someone who has a good 2-3 years left. However, his former OC went to the Bears, so they might get him. The other guy I would like to get is Curtis Samuel for the Colts. We had Isaiah McKenzie for those reverses and quick gadget plays (before he was sent packing) but Curtis Samuel would be an upgrade there and can really give us some play making, IMO. 

 

If the reason for you choosing Darnell Mooney is long speed, in that case, to get another outside guy to play in case of injury plus being moved around is Gabriel Davis of Buffalo Bills, he would be a GREAT asset to our offense, IMO. He would cost close to $13-14 mil. per year while Mooney will cost $9-10 mil. but it would be worth it, IMO. You will get what you pay for there.

I like Mooney’s speed and separation.  The Bears passing attack wasn’t really impressive last year and I think Fields had a lot to do with it.  Also bringing in Moore was a big move for them with mixed results.  He’s young too.  So , for me, I think he would be a nice addition who would get that separation for AR especially on deep throws.
 

 

 

 

 

[ArmchairQB]

1 hour ago, VikingsFanInChennai said:

Hopkins never really has to be open, he's a beast in contested ball catches, and catch and run situations with physicality. Tennessee didn't help him by having average QB play and defenses knowing to key in on him with double coverage of needed, he still ended up with 1,000 yards. 

Which just furthers my point that these types of metrics provide incomplete pictures.

[chad72]

53 minutes ago, jvan1973 said:

It's funny you say Pierce has a ceiling of a WR2 and there is no doubt about that.   I'm guessing you have never watched him in practice.   It's odd you came to that absolute conclusion 

 

There is no such thing as an absolute conclusion, Mr. fine print man??

 

I could say 9 out of 10 things you agree with but you pick only 1 thing that you disagree with and harp on it. Or should I call you "Born to disagree" man?

 

The short yard shuttle measurables of Alec Pierce is why, despite his long speed, he was available in Round 2. He is not a dynamic WR. You may come to that agreement too someday yourself but I can bet you won't be here to yield to it.

[jvan1973]

1 minute ago, chad72 said:

 

There is no such thing as an absolute conclusion, Mr. fine print man??

 

I could say 9 out of 10 things you agree with but you pick only 1 thing that you disagree with and harp on it. Or should I call you "Born to disagree" man?

Neither.   I don't post on absolutes.  It's silly.   Saying you know a players projection without watching them practice is nonsense.   You can say,  I haven't seen much or something to that extent.   I think you are one of the best posters here.   My post I quoted of yours was just frustration of many similar posts.  People project a player with almost zero information.   I don't understand it.   

[AwesomeAustin]

Would like to see 45-50 receptions with 700-800yds and 3-5 TDs. That would be a great year for Pierce. I think Downs will eat into some of his targets and maybe even the TE position if someone separates themselves from the rest of the group. If AP doesn’t get somewhere around those numbers, I’m guessing the team will look for a replacement. 

[chad72]

7 minutes ago, jvan1973 said:

Neither.   I don't post on absolutes.  It's silly.   Saying you know a players projection without watching them practice is nonsense.   You can say,  I haven't seen much or something to that extent.   I think you are one of the best posters here.   My post I quoted of yours was just frustration of many similar posts.  People project a player with almost zero information.   I don't understand it.   

 

I am going based on his short shuttle and 3 cone times being lower than that of Josh Downs, if you must know. That quick separation is lacking. So, his route tree then becomes limited and thus less dynamic, and has so far played out as such on the field. So, my WR2 ceiling projection is an extrapolation of that. Unlike D K Metcalf, who has similar short separation issues, he doesn't have the size that Metcalf has to compensate for it. So just winning contested catches and the occasional go routes, which is supposed to be Pierce's specialty, with a limited route tree, won't elevate his ceiling to a WR1 "Go To" alpha. I hope that explains my stance.

 

Most here would be fine with him being a consistent WR2, if you ask them. 

[husker61]

6 hours ago, MikeCurtis said:

At the end of the day I believe Pierce is underused

 

But…… let’s be honest, he is not the dynamic WR that this team needs

 

My hope is that we find that guy in late round 1 after we trade back a few places

 

and pick up another 2nd rounder ( or more)

right now no one is a dynamic receiver as long as they have a second hand qb that doesn’t have the arm or instinct to be able to throw the deep ball. Hopefully Richardson has BOTH those qualities and then the colts will really know what they have at the wr position. It’s just not fair to make wr judgements playing with the qb’s the colts have had recently.

[smittywerb]

12 hours ago, twfish said:

I saw this the other day and have been pondering it. Pierce is asked to do the dirty work to open up the rest of the field for everyone else. He runs more vertical routes then anyone else in the league so DB's are likely keying up on that and anticipating a deep route. So he is open about 3 times a game for a deep bomb so that does still validate peoples thought of him being open frequently. All while keeping his DB and a safety away, allowing more space for everyone else.

 

Yup, this pretty much.  Problem is we don’t have anyone else who can do so.  We don’t have anyone who can force the defense to expose itself or compensate.  
 

But for some reason people think because we’ll AR it will fix everything.  

[smittywerb]

14 hours ago, runthepost said:

Ranked 111th out of 118th is terrible, this is WRs getting open regardless if they were thrown the ball.

 

Yup, I honestly don’t know where people were seeing Pierce getting open because eye test told me he wasn’t.

 

im going to sound like a broken record here, but this chart shows me there are 2 problems here.

 

1.  We don’t have dynamic receivers.  If Pierce is taking his man and sometimes a safety out of the way, then where are the other receivers and tight ends?  We don’t have another player that can beat their man quickly down the field.  Short yardage, sure, but no one who can eat up those medium to deep yards. 
 

2.  Pierce needs to improve his route tree.  This is why I don’t think Pierce is the answer.  He’s predictable.  He’s either running a streak or a deep post.  That’s it.  Having AR is not going to make him better because HE’S not better.  

[throwing BBZ]

Or, Minshew historically doesn't have the arm to attack a great deal of the field. So we didn't get to see what the potential is for anyone in our passing game.

 Yes we desperately need another really quick fast receiver. Let's hope.