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MPJ IS a number 1. Period.


compuls1v3

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We all have our opinion on this issue.   And while I’m a MPJ fan, I don’t see him as a WR1.    Though if he reaches free agency I’m sure some teams might.  
 

But I see him as a high level WR2.   And it’s not intended as an insult.   By volume he catches a lot of passes.  And that’s great.   But he doesn’t scare defenses.  Opposing DC’s don’t lose sleep facing him.   I’d like to find a way to keep him, but someday draft/FA another receiver that defenses have to fear, respect and game plan for.   That player would be our future WR1.   
 

I hope we sign him to roughly 4/76-80.   
The key will be the guarantees.

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41 minutes ago, John Hammonds said:

What makes Pittman difficult to judge is that he is not a standard WR.  Most guys are track guys in pads.  He's a football player who runs routes.  He catches the ball violently.  He's not smooth.  He doesn't glide.  He barrels his way down the field.  He's not a Ferrari.  He's a Camaro.  He's a muscle car.

And he's the best receiver on our team.

 

(Pay the man.)

Truth! He is so aggressive and seeks contact. He's a bully at the WR position. Like Steve Smith but with size. 

 

Absolutely love his attitude and play. I pray we keep him!!

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So IMO, WR1’s need to be able to generate big plays down the field and score. You can measure that best with YPC. If you look at the top WR’s in the league they typically average 15+ YPC. Pittman is currently averaging 10.2 YPC and has a career average of 10.8. His highest YPC in a season is 12.6. He’s also never exceeded more than 6 TDs in a season.

 

For comparison, here are the YPC and TDs of some of the receivers who are labeled as WR1:

 

-Tyreek Hill:

2023 15.9 YPC 12 TDs

Career YPC: 14.2

 

-Justin Jefferson 

2023: 15.9 YPC 3 TDs (mind you he was IR most of this season)

Career YPC: 15.0

 

-D.K. Metcalf

2023: 16.6 YPC 6 TDs

Career: 14.2 YPC

 

-Jamar Chase

2023: 12.2 YPC 6 TDs (Burrow played hurt and is on IR now)

Career: 14.1 YPC

 

 

-AJ Brown

2023: 14.4 YPC 7 TDs

Career: 16.0 YPC



-Mike Evans

2023: 16.6 YPC 10 TDs

15.4 for his career

 

1,000 yard seasons isn’t an appropriate benchmark anymore because it’s a pass friendly league. What Pittman does is get a lot of receptions for not a lot of yards. There are several receivers who are already over 1,000 yards with less than his 87 catches. Evans is over 1,000 with 66 catches…

 

You can see it on film though. He isn’t a guy that makes a ton of plays down the field in single coverage. He catches a lot of short stuff across the middle on slants and a decent amount of screen passes. So is he a good receiver? Yes. But elite? No. He really isn’t that much better or worse than Tee Higgins numbers wise, who people overrate a bit. He’s definitely a number 2 but a damn good one. But to win in this league you need to have a guy who can catch the short passes over the middle and also the 60 yard bomb. They also should be able to draw the best corner on the team in coverage.

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Counter point: If MPJ is the #1 receiver in your offense, you won't have a dynamic passing game.

 

I like MPJ, he brings a lot of good things to the table, he seems to check all the character boxes, and I think we should probably keep him. But I think we need to be better at WR.

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1 hour ago, Defjamz26 said:

So IMO, WR1’s need to be able to generate big plays down the field and score. You can measure that best with YPC. If you look at the top WR’s in the league they typically average 15+ YPC. Pittman is currently averaging 10.2 YPC and has a career average of 10.8. His highest YPC in a season is 12.6. He’s also never exceeded more than 6 TDs in a season.

 

For comparison, here are the YPC and TDs of some of the receivers who are labeled as WR1:

 

-Tyreek Hill:

2023 15.9 YPC 12 TDs

Career YPC: 14.2

 

-Justin Jefferson 

2023: 15.9 YPC 3 TDs (mind you he was IR most of this season)

Career YPC: 15.0

 

-D.K. Metcalf

2023: 16.6 YPC 6 TDs

Career: 14.2 YPC

 

-Jamar Chase

2023: 12.2 YPC 6 TDs (Burrow played hurt and is on IR now)

Career: 14.1 YPC

 

 

-AJ Brown

2023: 14.4 YPC 7 TDs

Career: 16.0 YPC



-Mike Evans

2023: 16.6 YPC 10 TDs

15.4 for his career

 

1,000 yard seasons isn’t an appropriate benchmark anymore because it’s a pass friendly league. What Pittman does is get a lot of receptions for not a lot of yards. There are several receivers who are already over 1,000 yards with less than his 87 catches. Evans is over 1,000 with 66 catches…

 

You can see it on film though. He isn’t a guy that makes a ton of plays down the field in single coverage. He catches a lot of short stuff across the middle on slants and a decent amount of screen passes. So is he a good receiver? Yes. But elite? No. He really isn’t that much better or worse than Tee Higgins numbers wise, who people overrate a bit. He’s definitely a number 2 but a damn good one. But to win in this league you need to have a guy who can catch the short passes over the middle and also the 60 yard bomb. They also should be able to draw the best corner on the team in coverage.

Correct, and while at it, you should also look at YPA importantly because that's how many pass attempts are required from the QB and that's how many DOWNS you spend on targeting your WR1.

 

Pittman has got 140+ targets last season and is on pace for 150+ or more this year. A very good WR1 gets his QB more than 10 YPA and much more if you're comparing Elite WRs, so that your offense moves chains. Pittman's YPA goes even lower, proving he's just a possession receiver. 

 

If Colts want to keep Pittman, they still need to find or draft a WR1, otherwise the offense is gonna be SLOW and Stale in tough matchups or your QB will have to be really great or compensate in some other ways. If your best receiver only gets you that, it's tough to win against great teams and fight through the playoffs. 

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14 minutes ago, VikingsFanInChennai said:

Correct, and while at it, you should also look at YPA importantly because that's how many pass attempts are required from the QB and that's how many DOWNS you spend on targeting your WR1.

 

Pittman has got 140+ targets last season and is on pace for 150+ or more this year. A very good WR1 gets his QB more than 10 YPA and much more if you're comparing Elite WRs, so that your offense moves chains. Pittman's YPA goes even lower, proving he's just a possession receiver. 

 

And all of this is why Pittman is 82rd among all pass catchers in yards per target, at 7.1, tied with Adam Thielen. He's behind 15 TEs and 5 RBs. The big time receivers are in the 9-10 yards/target range, with some even higher than that. Mike Evans endures bad QB play, and he's at 9.8. Keenan Allen isn't a burner, and he's at 8.5. In 2021, Pittman's biggest year, he was at 8.4, 42nd among all pass catchers.

 

Pittman is a possession receiver. And that's fine, he's a guy who can make tough catches on critical downs, he can fight for YAC, he's physical at the line and at the catch point, he does the dirty work, plays almost every down and never stops working. Good offenses have guys like Pittman, just not as their #1 option. If we had good QBing and another reliable receiving threat, I think Pittman's per catch and per target production would be better than it has been this year and last. But it's still probably capped at around where he was in 2021.

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1 hour ago, VikingsFanInChennai said:

If Colts want to keep Pittman, they still need to find or draft a WR1, otherwise the offense is gonna be SLOW and Stale in tough matchups or your QB will have to be really great or compensate in some other ways. If your best receiver only gets you that, it's tough to win against great teams and fight through the playoffs. 

Precisely. You can have Pittman, but you need MORE. Pittman as WR1 gets you beat in January if you’re lucky enough to make it that far. It’s almost identical to the situation in Cincinnati. Higgins was good, but you needed Chase to really open up the offense. I think Odunze is a WR that would pair very well with him.

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6 hours ago, compuls1v3 said:

I've been on the other side of this conversation, stating he's only a number 2, but he's proven me wrong this year.  The numbers don't lie.  And the amazing thing is, he still hasn't had a stable QB to throw to him in all these years.  He might not get all the TDs, but he's a playmaker.  Props to Michael Pittman Jr.

 

 

 

https://www.colts.com/news/sacks-nfl-ranking-michael-pittman-receptions-alec-pierce-gardner-minshew-titans

 

"With his 11 receptions on Sunday, Pittman now has more receptions in the first four years of his career than any player in Colts history:

Table inside Article

Player                              Years                          Receptions

Michael Pittman Jr.          2020-2023                 314

Marvin Harrison              1996-1999                  311

T.Y. Hilton                        2012-2015                 283

Bill Brooks                       1986-1989                  233

Reggie Wayne                 2001-2004                  221"

Pittman  can catch but he does score enough for me. Give me a harrison,hill, or moss anyday

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A few things can be true.

 

1) The Colts should pay him this off-season.

2) His talent/ability can be a pivotal part of a championship team

3) The Colts should also strive to get an elite prospect at the position. This thread has a bunch of great posts detailing what separates the truly elite WRs from Pittman ATM.

4) To be fair, he still hasn't had a chance to consistently play with one starting QB for longer than a year.

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11 hours ago, Solid84 said:

I guess it depends on how we define WR1. When I say I feel Pittman is a WR2 I don't base it on how many receptions he has. I base it on what kind of receiver he is.

 

Here's a comparison between Pittman and Harrison (first 4 years (so far for Pittman)):

Games (started/played) -- Pitt 53/58 -- Harrison 58/60

Targets -- Pitt 458 -- Harrison 541

Receptions -- Pitt 314 -- Harrison 311

Yards -- Pitt 3399 -- Harrison 4141

Y/REC -- Pitt 10.82 -- Harrison 13.32

TDs -- Pitt 15 -- Harrison 33

 

Yes, Harrison had Manning, but only for 2 of his first four years and Manning was.. not good.. in his rookie year. In Harrison's first 2 years he had nearly as many TDs (14) as Pittman has in his first four (15).

 

I'm not saying this to diminish what Pittman has accomplished. But, to me Pittman is like a Chris Godwin of the Bucs. He's damn good, but Evans is the clear WR1. We need our Mike Evans or this eras Marvin Harrison. If we had that guy Pittman would be even better.


 

pretty much this.  I’ve also been one to say he’s a WR2 fringe 1.  But after these past few weeks he’s been playing like a true WR1.  
 

id like to see him get his avg yds/catch up.  He’s hovering around 10.0 right now.  Would like to see it get to at least 12.  If he becomes a big time red zone target then honestly, he can average what he wants.  But if he gets his average higher, then we won’t have to target him as much which means he’s becoming more explosive

 

with that said, I’m 100% on board with bringing him back.  I’d say $22mill/yr for what he does.  We can’t fall into the guise of “he’s our WR1”.  Similar to what I said about Taylor, pay him what he’s worth.  I was for paying Taylor 11-12/yr and I think he got 13.  Same logic with Pittman.  Looking at other WRs, their talents and what they’re getting paid, I think Pittman gets $22mill.  He’s not going to reset the market and he shouldn’t based on his talent level compared to other receivers that could do it.

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27 minutes ago, smittywerb said:


 

pretty much this.  I’ve also been one to say he’s a WR2 fringe 1.  But after these past few weeks he’s been playing like a true WR1.  
 

id like to see him get his avg yds/catch up.  He’s hovering around 10.0 right now.  Would like to see it get to at least 12.  If he becomes a big time red zone target then honestly, he can average what he wants.  But if he gets his average higher, then we won’t have to target him as much which means he’s becoming more explosive

 

with that said, I’m 100% on board with bringing him back.  I’d say $22mill/yr for what he does.  We can’t fall into the guise of “he’s our WR1”.  Similar to what I said about Taylor, pay him what he’s worth.  I was for paying Taylor 11-12/yr and I think he got 13.  Same logic with Pittman.  Looking at other WRs, their talents and what they’re getting paid, I think Pittman gets $22mill.  He’s not going to reset the market and he shouldn’t based on his talent level compared to other receivers that could do it.

Good point. Ballard loves to overpay “his guys” so it will be interesting to see what happens. Pittman does what he does very well and he’s definitely what CB calls a “horseshoe guy,” but as you said he is not worth top WR money. The answer is to not falsely label and pay Pitt as a WR1 but to get him a true WR1 to run with. Add in Downs and AP, and we might be cooking with grease with those WRs. 

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12 minutes ago, ShuteAt168 said:

Good point. Ballard loves to overpay “his guys” so it will be interesting to see what happens. Pittman does what he does very well and he’s definitely what CB calls a “horseshoe guy,” but as you said he is not worth top WR money. 


Exactly.  Looking at this years salaries for receivers, what I believe are the WR1s, Tyreek is getting $30 at the top and Scary Terry is getting $23 at the bottom.  
 

then the next tier of WRs you have DJ Moore at the top with $20 and and diontae Johnson at $18.  This is where I think Pittman sits.  Pittman name is more in line with this tier than the tier above him.  And that’s why I said I’m ok with paying him $22mill.  He’s making right in between and if/when the market gets reset, he’ll have a competitive salary also.

 

i know that the NFL is going to make

more money and the cap rooms will continue to increase, but that doesn’t mean we have to be the team to reset the receiver market.  Let another team do it and then we can renegotiate with Pittman to get him the money he deserves, but for right now, $22mill is what I’d offer him.

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12 hours ago, John Hammonds said:

What makes Pittman difficult to judge is that he is not a standard WR.  Most guys are track guys in pads.  He's a football player who runs routes.  He catches the ball violently.  He's not smooth.  He doesn't glide.  He barrels his way down the field.  He's not a Ferrari.  He's a Camaro.  He's a muscle car.

And he's the best receiver on our team.

 

(Pay the man.)

You know. That’s a dang good analogy.
 

 

I’m not the biggest Pittman fan as I feel he disappears a lot but it does appear he is trying to find a groove. I’m okay with paying him “elite” money IF and I mean IF, it’s heavily incentivized or gives us a clean out in two years, maybe three

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1 hour ago, smittywerb said:

then the next tier of WRs you have DJ Moore at the top with $20 and and diontae Johnson at $18.  This is where I think Pittman sits.  Pittman name is more in line with this tier than the tier above him.  And that’s why I said I’m ok with paying him $22mill.  He’s making right in between and if/when the market gets reset, he’ll have a competitive salary also.

https://overthecap.com/position/wide-receiver#google_vignette
 
Those are the WR contracts ranked. You can not put him in the same tier as DJ Moore money wise because the production and stats don’t match up. But that’s the type of money Pitt will likely want. Based on production he’s probably worth closer to what Hunter Renfrow makes. The question is will he be okay with that?

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52 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

https://overthecap.com/position/wide-receiver#google_vignette
 
Those are the WR contracts ranked. You can not put him in the same tier as DJ Moore money wise because the production and stats don’t match up. But that’s the type of money Pitt will likely want. Based on production he’s probably worth closer to what Hunter Renfrow makes. The question is will he be okay with that?


 

To be honest, I agree with you.  If it were me, I’d want him to get no more than $19million.  But we also have to understand that other teams are going to want to pay him too, meaning we’ll likely have to overpay a little bit to keep him.  I’d realistically offer him $20mill/yr but he may see that as a low ball due to the increase in revenue and cap space.  So I feel like $22mill/yr is safe.  He’s right in between the WR1s and WR2s, which I think he is.  
 

But $15million, I don’t think he’s worth that.  Definitely worth more than $15million.

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14 hours ago, Solid84 said:

I'm 100% for us signing him. I think he gets $20-25m per year.

 

4 years $90 mil. is what I called for, with possibly $40-45 mil. guaranteed. That would be his ballpark. Not quite DaVante Adams or A J Brown or Tyreek Hill ballpark but close enough.

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26 minutes ago, smittywerb said:


 

To be honest, I agree with you.  If it were me, I’d want him to get no more than $19million.  But we also have to understand that other teams are going to want to pay him too, meaning we’ll likely have to overpay a little bit to keep him.  I’d realistically offer him $20mill/yr but he may see that as a low ball due to the increase in revenue and cap space.  So I feel like $22mill/yr is safe.  He’s right in between the WR1s and WR2s, which I think he is.  
 

But $15million, I don’t think he’s worth that.  Definitely worth more than $15million.

 

Yep. Somewhere around Deebo Samuel guarantees in the $40-45 mil. range for guaranteed money, 4 years $90 mil. is what I am thinking, we are on the same track. Ballard loves 4 year contracts typically. DeForest Buckner, Ryan Kelly, Big Q, Braden Smith, Kenny Moore got those 4 year durations for new contracts or extensions. 

 

JT being a RB, that is a brutal position, got the lowest 3 year kind for a player his age, more so because the average was on the higher side than Ballard wanted to give, I am assuming. Shaq's contract, with his injury then, for 5 years, was a mistake, IMO. Should have done something like JT. Maybe he learned from Shaq's contract and since JT was also coming off an injury like Shaq was nursing then, he wised up and gave 3 years.

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1 hour ago, chad72 said:

 

Yep. Somewhere around Deebo Samuel guarantees in the $40-45 mil. range for guaranteed money, 4 years $90 mil. is what I am thinking, we are on the same track. Ballard loves 4 year contracts typically. DeForest Buckner, Ryan Kelly, Big Q, Braden Smith, Kenny Moore got those 4 year durations for new contracts or extensions. 

 

JT being a RB, that is a brutal position, got the lowest 3 year kind for a player his age, more so because the average was on the higher side than Ballard wanted to give, I am assuming. Shaq's contract, with his injury then, for 5 years, was a mistake, IMO. Should have done something like JT. Maybe he learned from Shaq's contract and since JT was also coming off an injury like Shaq was nursing then, he wised up and gave 3 years.

Leonard didn't have many injuries before he signed that contract.   He went on to play all 16 after signing it and had an All Pro season

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Lets see how Pierce does the rest of the year 1st. We have seen what he can do now, lets see if he can keep it up or if that will be just his 1 game wonder. If he continues to get thrown to and does exactly what he did against the titans and does more, will yall still want another WR.?

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7 hours ago, colts89 said:

A few things can be true.

 

1) The Colts should pay him this off-season.

2) His talent/ability can be a pivotal part of a championship team

3) The Colts should also strive to get an elite prospect at the position. This thread has a bunch of great posts detailing what separates the truly elite WRs from Pittman ATM.

4) To be fair, he still hasn't had a chance to consistently play with one starting QB for longer than a year.

Just because I started a thread in the nfl general, on point 4 if the guy is elite he’ll get his numbers IE: Mike Evans

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1 hour ago, tweezy32 said:

Lets see how Pierce does the rest of the year 1st. We have seen what he can do now, lets see if he can keep it up or if that will be just his 1 game wonder. If he continues to get thrown to and does exactly what he did against the titans and does more, will yall still want another WR.?

Yes. If we can get a game breaking WR to go with Pitt, Pierce, and Downs our WR room would become dominant. If Pierce and Downs continue to progress that is. Injuries also happen and it wouldn't be bad to have a full cupboard.

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11 hours ago, smittywerb said:


 

To be honest, I agree with you.  If it were me, I’d want him to get no more than $19million.  But we also have to understand that other teams are going to want to pay him too, meaning we’ll likely have to overpay a little bit to keep him.  I’d realistically offer him $20mill/yr but he may see that as a low ball due to the increase in revenue and cap space.  So I feel like $22mill/yr is safe.  He’s right in between the WR1s and WR2s, which I think he is.  
 

But $15million, I don’t think he’s worth that.  Definitely worth more than $15million.

$15 million is exactly where I think his value is. None of the receivers making $20 mil have as low a YPR as he does. 10.8 career YPR and 15 career TDs isn’t worth $20 mil. 

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12 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

https://overthecap.com/position/wide-receiver#google_vignette
 
Those are the WR contracts ranked. You can not put him in the same tier as DJ Moore money wise because the production and stats don’t match up. But that’s the type of money Pitt will likely want. Based on production he’s probably worth closer to what Hunter Renfrow makes. The question is will he be okay with that?


Hunter Renfro?     Seriously?   
 

Your hate for Pitt has reached a new low.   And I didn’t think that was even possible. 

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On 12/4/2023 at 8:33 PM, Superman said:

Counter point: If MPJ is the #1 receiver in your offense, you won't have a dynamic passing game.

 

I like MPJ, he brings a lot of good things to the table, he seems to check all the character boxes, and I think we should probably keep him. But I think we need to be better at WR.

I agree we need a more explosive  number 1

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