MPJ IS a number 1. Period.

[Superman]

6 hours ago, DougDew said:

Edit:  Yes, about 12 to 18 guys that are #1s.  Every other WR in the NFL is a #2 at best.  And then there are the elite/weird slot guys that are special...Like a Julian Edelmen..or maybe even a great Move TE....that don't really fit a label.

 

I think you're basically making tiers, and that's a different conversation. Even within your top tier, I think there are at least two separate tiers.

[Superman]

1 hour ago, stitches said:

Meh, to me this whole argument is largely pointless. About as pointless as it was when people were arguing about whether TY Hilton was a 1 or not and how he can be a 1 if he's playing from the slot predominantly... 

 

(for the record - IMO, no, neither Pittman, nor Hilton are/were traditional no. 1/X receiver).  

 

It's just immaterial to the larger questions we need to answer.

 

Is MPJ a good receiver who provides value commensurate with the expected pay he's going to receive? If yes - he's young enough for us to expect for him to keep up this production over the length of his next contract... If no - can we expect him to improve to a point where he's worth the money? And can we replace that production for cheaper so we can use the money more effectively elsewhere? 

 

How does he fit in our receiving core? Does he have a well defined role that is valuable and hard to replace at lower salary? 

 

Is this receiving core good enough with Pittman as the main guy? To me the answer to this is no. BUT... that doesn't mean that we need to let him go because he wants to get paid. It means we need to add talent, not lose some of the best talent we have. 

 

 

I think what's pointless is reducing the discussion about Pittman's contract value down to whether or not he is defined as a WR1, or elite, or premium, or whatever other tag we come up with to "define" WRs.

 

Like you said, what's his market value, and is his role/production worthy of that value? 

[DougDew]

31 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I think you're basically making tiers, and that's a different conversation. Even within your top tier, I think there are at least two separate tiers.

Maybe so.  I think of #1 vs #2 as one guy you can't afford to lose because what they do is hard to replace vs the guy who gets paid at some level, but what he can do can be found  easier. 

 

I don't think stats or production says much about that because offenses and QBs play a part.   I want to be clear as to not think of #1s as only future HOFers,  but I also think there are not a lot of "true" #1 WRs around.  A lot of teams don't have one.

 

AJ Brown is probably a #1.  The GM got fired when he traded him, I suppose since guys like Brown are hard to find at any price.  When you have one, you keep him. 

 

I don't see that with Pittman.  That doesn't mean he shouldn't and won't get paid a decent amount.

 

Edit:  I agree with what you just said to Stitches.

[Superman]

39 minutes ago, DougDew said:

AJ Brown is probably a #1.  The GM got fired when he traded him, I suppose since guys like Brown are hard to find at any price.  When you have one, you keep him. 

 

I don't think that's the reason the GM got fired; drafting the wrong replacement is probably the bigger problem there. But it's definitely not a good look when you trade a guy and he immediately blows up as a top five receiver. However, AJ Brown was coming off of a pretty mediocre season, so the decision was somewhat defensible, especially when he wanted his $25m/year RIGHT NOW, and wasn't willing to play out the final year of his rookie deal without it.

 

Pittman is not AJ Brown. Even though Pittman was more productive in 2021, AJ Brown has stuff that Pittman never will, and we all knew that at the time. But if AJ Brown could demand $25m/year coming off a pretty weak season, I felt that Pittman would have a good standing to get a similar deal. At the time, I expected Pittman to have a strong year in 2022, and that didn't quite work out.

 

I liked AJ Brown coming out of Ole Miss. He was probably my favorite receiver that year. I think he's so much better than I thought he'd be. He seems faster, he's super physical at the catch point and with the ball in his hands. He kind of reminds me of prime Terrell Owens, without the nonsense.

[NewColtsFan]

20 hours ago, Myles said:

He is the #1 WR for the Colts but he's not really one of the best in the league.

His current ranks:

16 - YPG

14 - Yards

4 - receptions

35 - TD's

 

Hmmm?     You list four rankings, but I only see one that’s not good…. YD’s. 
 

Obviously receptions is a good stat.   But I also think his YPG and Yard rankings are good as well.  Nothing wrong with being ranked 16th and 14th in the entire NFL.  
 

Just my two cents. 

[DougDew]

2 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I don't think that's the reason the GM got fired; drafting the wrong replacement is probably the bigger problem there. But it's definitely not a good look when you trade a guy and he immediately blows up as a top five receiver. However, AJ Brown was coming off of a pretty mediocre season, so the decision was somewhat defensible, especially when he wanted his $25m/year RIGHT NOW, and wasn't willing to play out the final year of his rookie deal without it.

 

Pittman is not AJ Brown. Even though Pittman was more productive in 2021, AJ Brown has stuff that Pittman never will, and we all knew that at the time. But if AJ Brown could demand $25m/year coming off a pretty weak season, I felt that Pittman would have a good standing to get a similar deal. At the time, I expected Pittman to have a strong year in 2022, and that didn't quite work out.

 

I liked AJ Brown coming out of Ole Miss. He was probably my favorite receiver that year. I think he's so much better than I thought he'd be. He seems faster, he's super physical at the catch point and with the ball in his hands. He kind of reminds me of prime Terrell Owens, without the nonsense.

All true.  But I do think AJ Brown showed more talent and explosive playmaking even when at TEN that Pittman has ever shown here.  Even though stats wise there may not have been much difference.

 

I figured the reason the GM got fired was that Vrabel immediately talked to the owner to tell him how poorly the GM valued Brown...in that the GM seemed to think that he could find a replacement simply via another season of drafting...like assuming guys like Brown (or Deebo) enter the draft every year.  But that's speculation of course.

[Superman]

2 minutes ago, DougDew said:

All true.  But I do think AJ Brown showed more talent and explosive playmaking even when at TEN that Pittman has ever shown here.  Even though stats wise there may not have been much difference.

 

I figured the reason the GM got fired was that Vrabel immediately talked to the owner to tell him how poorly the GM valued Brown...in that the GM seemed to think that he could find a replacement simply via another season of drafting...like assuming guys like Brown (or Deebo) enter the draft every year.  But that's speculation of course.

 

The explosive playmaking is obvious even in the early TN stats, AJ Brown was 20 yards/catch in his rookie season, which is silly.

 

But I think AJ Brown has become more than he was expected to become, and the same is probably true for Deebo. I liked them both, but they both went in the 2nd round for obvious reasons, and now they look like All Pro/HOF level guys.

 

I also think it's a reasonable argument to say that really good WRs will be in every draft. It's hard to reach the HOF heights of course, but there are dynamic playmaker WRs in the first two rounds every year. The year after Brown/Deebo had Lamb, Aiyuk, Jefferson; the next year had Chase, Waddle, Smith. And the year they took Burks was just as promising. It sucks when the guy you get rid of blows up like Brown has, but I think it's demonstrated that the greater value is in drafting the next guy, especially when your guy just had a disappointing season. You still have to get that pick right, though, and I think they blew it with Burks.

 

I think the Colts probably should keep Pittman, but if someone offered a late first rounder for him, I think I'd make that trade and sleep well at night.

[w87r]

58 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

Hmmm?     You list four rankings, but I only see one that’s not good…. YD’s. 
 

Obviously receptions is a good stat.   But I also think his YPG and Yard rankings are good as well.  Nothing wrong with being ranked 16th and 14th in the entire NFL.  
 

Just my two cents. 

Not if you put it in the proper context. It shows major inefficiency.

 

#3 in targets

#14 in yards

#88 in yards per reception

#35 in TDs

#17 in 1st downs(that many possession WR targets and are #17 in 1st downs?)(more broken tackles would help this out as well) - see below

#25 with 4.59 yards after catch

Not in the top 20 in first down % per reception

Not in top 20 for first down catches on 3rd down

 

 

 

Being 14th in yards is good, but not when you've received the 3rd most targets in the league. It's not efficient.

 

 

[jvan1973]

9 minutes ago, w87r said:

Not if you put it in the proper context. It shows major inefficiency.

 

#3 in targets

#14 in yards

#88 in yards per reception

#35 in TDs

#17 in 1st downs(that many possession WR targets and are #17 in 1st downs?)(more broken tackles would help this out as well) - see below

#25 with 4.59 yards after catch

Not in the top 20 in first down % per reception

Not in top 20 for first down catches on 3rd down

 

 

 

Being 14th in yards is good, but not when you've received the 3rd most targets in the league. It's not efficient.

 

 

It's still yards, it's still first downs.  He is doing what he is being asked to do.   Is it better to have 5 catches for 80 yards than it is to have 11 for 100?   

[ColtStrong2013]

10 minutes ago, jvan1973 said:

It's still yards, it's still first downs.  He is doing what he is being asked to do.   Is it better to have 5 catches for 80 yards than it is to have 11 for 100?   

this is important. 

With a backup qb. And backup quality all but 1 season of his career. 

 

Pittman has put up big time plays with mediocre qb play. I think he and Steichen are both doing quite a bit with what they are working with. Pittman has appeared to step his game up every season he’s been here. Even regressing with yards/touchdowns with last years fiasco season, he was 1 shy of 100 receptions. I don’t see how we can move on from him. 

[jvan1973]

1 minute ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

this is important. 

With a backup qb. And backup quality all but 1 season of his career. 

 

Pittman has put up big time plays with mediocre qb play. I think he and Steichen are both doing quite a bit with what they are working with. Pittman has appeared to step his game up every season he’s been here. Even regressing with yards/touchdowns with last years fiasco season, he was 1 shy of 100 receptions. I don’t see how we can move on from him. 

Unless his contract demands are in the 25 territory,  I don't think there is any question he is back

[ColtStrong2013]

10 minutes ago, jvan1973 said:

Unless his contract demands are in the 25 territory,  I don't think there is any question he is back

Would we not franchise tag and continue discussions before letting him walk.? 

[w87r]

On 12/7/2023 at 5:27 PM, jvan1973 said:

It's still yards, it's still first downs.  He is doing what he is being asked to do.   Is it better to have 5 catches for 80 yards than it is to have 11 for 100?   

1st downs are great, he just needs to get a better percentage of them.

 

 

I don't even see how it is debatable.

 

T-#2 in targets, 4th in receptions

 

 

Yet:

14th(not good compared to targets/receptions)

17th in 1st downs

Not in top 20 of 1st downs on 3rd down

Not in top 20 of 1st down %

Etc, etc...

 

 

 

 

He is getting maximum opportunities and providing just ok results.(compared to opportunity.

 

 

Just for comparison sake, I will list the stats of #1,2,4,5 in targets and compare them to Pittman's #2 spot.

 

#1. Keenan Allen (138 targets)

102 rec, 1175yds, 7tds, 51 1st downs, 11.5ypc

#2. Tyreek Hill (127 targets)

93 rec, 1481yds, 12tds, 66 1st downs, 15.9ypc

#2. Michael Pittman (127 targets)

87 rec, 889yds, 4tds, 40 1st downs, 10.2ypc

#4. Jamar Chase (124 targets)

86 rec, 1063yds, 7tds, 55 1st downs, 12.4ypc

#5. Ceedee Lamb (121 targets)

90 rec, 1182yds, 7tds, 54 1st downs, 13.1ypc

#5 Stephen Diggs (121 targets)

83 rec, 969yds, 8tds, 47 1st downs, 11.7ypc.

 

 

We can say whatever we want about the QB, bottom line is he is #2 in targets and #4 in receptions, so the ball is getting to him, he just isn't doing much with it after the catch.

 

 

 

Will finish it off like I did when I posted these deficiencies yesterday, and say I think he is having a good year and I'm ok with a 4-5yr deal at $20-$21m a season.

[NewColtsFan]

31 minutes ago, w87r said:

Not if you put it in the proper context. It shows major inefficiency.

 

#3 in targets

#14 in yards

#88 in yards per reception

#35 in TDs

#17 in 1st downs(that many possession WR targets and are #17 in 1st downs?)(more broken tackles would help this out as well) - see below

#25 with 4.59 yards after catch

Not in the top 20 in first down % per reception

Not in top 20 for first down catches on 3rd down

 

 

 

Being 14th in yards is good, but not when you've received the 3rd most targets in the league. It's not efficient.

 

 

Forgive me….   I don’t mean to be argumentative, but I’m a bit perplexed.  
 

I appreciate that it’s not efficient,  but why is top-20 the metric for deciding what is or isn’t efficient.  Why isn’t 25 the magic number?   Or more to the point, since there are 32 teams, why isn’t 32 the magic number?  

Also, I’ve been reading this discussion and there appear to be roughly 3 pages of discussion about how Pittman is used.   That, to an extent, he’s a bit of being a victim of circumstance.  He gets all the short stuff.   
 

And, just for the record, while I’m a very big Pittman fan, I also don’t see him as a legit WR1.   I call him a high level WR2, and I don’t mean it as an insult.  
 

I look forward to your response.   

[w87r]

2 minutes ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

Would we not franchise tag and continue discussions before letting him walk.? 

Probably franchise Tag and trade before we let walk.

 

Doubt he walks. Organization loves the guy, as they should. He is a hard worker and produces. Just need to do more once the ball is in his hands.

[NewColtsFan]

4 minutes ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

Would we not franchise tag and continue discussions before letting him walk.? 

I think so.   I think the Colts would use the lower level tag that would bring one first round pick.   I don’t think they’d use a higher level tag that would bring two first round picks.   I could easily be wrong, but that would be my guess. 

[w87r]

1 minute ago, NewColtsFan said:

appreciate that it’s not efficient,  but why is top-20 the metric for deciding what is or isn’t efficient.  Why isn’t 25 the magic number?   Or more to the point, since there are 32 teams, why isn’t 32 the magic number?  

When I was pulling up those 2 metrics they only had top 20 listed. Don't know where Pittman actually comes in on those, but it's not top 20.

 

And again the important thing to remember is the #2 targets and #4 receptions. Yes on the surface #14 rank, or #16 rank seems good, but when compared to opportunities, it doesn't equate. You've acknowledged the inefficiency, so not telling you anything there.

 

5 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

Also, I’ve been reading this discussion and there appear to be roughly 3 pages of discussion about how Pittman is used.   That, to an extent, he’s a bit of being a victim of circumstance.  He gets all the short stuff.   
 

And, just for the record, while I’m a very big Pittman fan, I also don’t see him as a legit WR1.   I call him a high level WR2, and I don’t mean it as an insult.  
 

I look forward to your response.   

I had a couple post yesterday about it, I'm not going to refresh it, but they are on the page 3 I think.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Pittman will have a new extension shortly after the season is over is my guess.

[w87r]

3 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

I think so.   I think the Colts would use the lower level tag that would bring one first round pick.   I don’t think they’d use a higher level tag that would bring two first round picks.   I could easily be wrong, but that would be my guess. 

There is no trade on higher level tag.

Still 2 1st for the non exclusive tag, but teams can work out a deal before player signs tender, to lower compensation (as not many people are going to give up a (2) 1st for a WR)

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

7 minutes ago, w87r said:

Probably franchise Tag and trade before we let walk.

 

Doubt he walks. Organization loves the guy, as they should. He is a hard worker and produces. Just need to do more once the ball is in his hands.

Pittman is like top ten or something in the league  with YAC. I would have to find the stat but it’s very good.

[w87r]

Just now, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Pittman is like top ten or something in the lead with YAC. I would have to find the stat but it’s very good.

He's 11th in total yac(again #2 targets, going to rank high in a lot of categories, doesn't mean they are efficient)

 

See below

 

He's 25th in YAC per reception. 4.59yds

And without his (1) 75yarder he would be ranked in the 50's per reception.(that's not how it works though)(does tell how much more inefficient he has been without it though)

 

He needs to do more after the catch.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

This was from a couple weeks ago.

 

 

[w87r]

1 minute ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

This was from a couple weeks ago.

 

 

Up above are from now, who cares about a couple weeks ago?

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

I think what some don’t understand is how much pierce clears the middle out for Pittman. Why does he need to be chase to be paid. Thr market says what is value is and there isn’t much complaining anyone can do to change that. If it’s not the colds it will be a dozen others willing to pay him. I am not concerned with him not staying. It will be the top priority as soon as the season ends.

Just now, w87r said:

Up above are from now, who cares about a couple weeks ago?

That’s just 2 games ago lol. Not like it was from the first month of the season. 

[w87r]

1 minute ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

I think what some don’t understand is how much pierce clears the middle out for Pittman. Why does he need to be chase to be paid. Thr market says what is value is and there isn’t much complaining anyone can do to change that. If it’s not the colds it will be a dozen others willing to pay him. I am not concerned with him not staying. It will be the top priority as soon as the season ends.

That’s just 2 games ago lol. Not like it was from the first month of the season. 

Who cares, what relevance do they have?

 

 

The current statistics are already listed.

 

That tweet was pointless.

[w87r]

2 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

I think what some don’t understand

thanks for enlightening us...

 

We understand, bottom line he doesn't do much with it once he gets it, and he gets it a lot.

[jvan1973]

10 minutes ago, w87r said:

thanks for enlightening us...

 

We understand, bottom line he doesn't do much with it once he gets it, and he gets it a lot.

But he gets it.    That's the bigger point to me.    If a guy gets the ball 4 times a game and has a high average,  is that somehow better than a guy who gets it 10 times a game but has a yard per reception less average?  He gets open and runs the routes that are called.   Do you think KC would trade us straight up for any of their wrs for Pittman?  

[Defjamz26]

On 12/7/2023 at 6:33 PM, jvan1973 said:

But he gets it.    That's the bigger point to me.    If a guy gets the ball 4 times a game and has a high average,  is that somehow better than a guy who gets it 10 times a game but has a yard per reception less average?  He gets open and runs the routes that are called.   Do you think KC would trade us straight up for any of their wrs for Pittman?  

Think of it like Trent Richardson’s rookie year with the Browns. He finished with 950 yards rushing and 11 TDs. Usually anything over 1,000 is good for a RB, so a lot of people would see that and say that’s great. But the shocking part was he averaged 3.3 yards a carry. So basically it’s easy to get 1,000 yards or close to it if you get the ball like 30 times a game and just get 3 yards. But look at JT. He’s the type of back that can get the ball 10 times a game and get 8-10 yards a carry.

 

It’s the same concept for receiver. It’s easy to have 100 yard games if you catch 10-11 passes for 10 yards a game. Especially when a lot of defenses run the same soft zone we do that gives up a lot of space underneath. But when you need to push the ball down the field, that doesn’t help. Ideally you want the guys who can get 80 yards off of 3 catche, because those type of receivers are hard to defend and make opposing teams adjust their entire defense. Again, 14+ is the average for the receivers in the top 10 of yearly money. 
 

Basically, when the Titans go back and look at the tape and box score from this past game, they won’t be * at Pittman going 11 for 107 yards and 1 TD for an average of 9.5 YPR. They will have a big issue with Pierce having 100 yards and a TD on 3 catches. Thats the stuff that gets teams beat. 

[Defjamz26]

On 12/7/2023 at 12:49 PM, Superman said:

 

Good post, I think we understand each other, even if we don't agree on every element.

 

But this speaks to my earlier point. Deciding what Pittman is and who he should be compared to is the key to evaluating his market. We're talking about Diggs because of a statistical similarity, but no one believes that's a realistic comp. "D-Hop produced with bad QBs" because he was on another stratosphere as a player, and no one is making that comparison, either. In the same way, I think the Renfrow comp is way off.

 

So what is he, and then, how should he be valued? Is he a guy who can only give us 10 yards/catch, or is that more a product of the circumstance? (I don't predict a huge jump in his YPR with Richardson, but I do think this stat has been limited by his usage, not by his ability.)

 

And to be clear, I'm not pushing for him to be re-signed. I'm predicting he will be re-signed for a variety of factors, and that people are underestimating his market value. But I said before the season that if a team made a strong trade offer I'd be open to it. I don't think Pittman is the kind of player that should be our lead WR if we want to have a dynamic passing attack, but there is a role for him in a dynamic passing attack, even if we had a more prolific guy on the team.

Ultimately I think we see things the same. I’m okay with Pittman, but I think despite some of the circumstances surrounding our QB in his tenure, that we know who he is. Like another user said, if he’s got 88 catches on 127 targets, clearly the ball is going to him regardless.

 

But I think we both agree that Pittman is a really good #2 receiver, but not a true number 1 that can lead a dynamic passing attack. I’m not pushing for him to be re-signed unless it’s in the $15-18 million range. And even then we do have to consider that we just re-signed JT and Moss, Moore, Stewart, and Blackmon are also FAs as well. I think it has to be weighed carefully and he isn’t just a no brainer re-sign.

 

Something else I thought of recently that may factor in. We’ve both agreed that even if you keep him you have to keep trying to find that true number 1. Well if you find a guy like that in the draft, that creates an issue with target shares. Pittman is good, Downs has been really good, Pierce still has time on his rookie deals, and we get some production from our TEs. There wouldn’t be enough balls to go around. Thats why I wonder if even if they do bring him back in some way, they don’t trade him if they find that guy. Like if you tag Pittman and get Legette in the draft, and 3 weeks in Legette is AR’s favorite target and is showing he can be that X we’ve been looking for, do you trade Pitt to a contender? 

[richard pallo]

4 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

Ultimately I think we see things the same. I’m okay with Pittman, but I think despite some of the circumstances surrounding our QB in his tenure, that we know who he is. Like another user said, if he’s got 88 catches on 127 targets, clearly the ball is going to him regardless.

 

But I think we both agree that Pittman is a really good #2 receiver, but not a true number 1 that can lead a dynamic passing attack. I’m not pushing for him to be re-signed unless it’s in the $15-18 million range. And even then we do have to consider that we just re-signed JT and Moss, Moore, Stewart, and Blackmon are also FAs as well. I think it has to be weighed carefully and he isn’t just a no brainer re-sign.

 

Something else I thought of recently that may factor in. We’ve both agreed that even if you keep him you have to keep trying to find that true number 1. Well if you find a guy like that in the draft, that creates an issue with target shares. Pittman is good, Downs has been really good, Pierce still has time on his rookie deals, and we get some production from our TEs. There wouldn’t be enough balls to go around. Thats why I wonder if even if they do bring him back in some way, they don’t trade him if they find that guy. Like if you tag Pittman and get Legette in the draft, and 3 weeks in Legette is AR’s favorite target and is showing he can be that X we’ve been looking for, do you trade Pitt to a contender? 

But what if Legette turns out to be nothing great.  You’ve wasted a pick.  If they really want to get a number 1 do what the Bills did and trade for one.  No keeping your fingers crossed on the one you’ve drafted.  I think Pierce might be that guy with AR.  We really have no way of knowing.

[Defjamz26]

6 hours ago, richard pallo said:

But what if Legette turns out to be nothing great.  You’ve wasted a pick.  If they really want to get a number 1 do what the Bills did and trade for one.  No keeping your fingers crossed on the one you’ve drafted.  I think Pierce might be that guy with AR.  We really have no way of knowing.

Diggs being available in a trade is a rare occurrence. Typically those type of guys rarely become available. Thats why you have to draft those type of receivers. If you miss then you miss. Just keep swinging. Plus when you have a good team and can find a replacement quick, no one notices or cares when you miss.

 

 

Is anyone still talking about the Eagles missing on Jalen Reagor anymore?

[richard pallo]

56 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

Diggs being available in a trade is a rare occurrence. Typically those type of guys rarely become available. Thats why you have to draft those type of receivers. If you miss then you miss. Just keep swinging. Plus when you have a good team and can find a replacement quick, no one notices or cares when you miss.

 

 

Is anyone still talking about the Eagles missing on Jalen Reagor anymore?

We’ve actually swung three times in a row with Pittman , Pierce and Downs.  So far so good really.  But many still don’t think we have a number one.  There are 31 other teams.  The quickest way to get one is to trade for one.  They don’t necessarily have to be of Diggs caliber but that would be ideal.   A real number one opens it up for the other guys as well.  A real number one for AR would be ideal.  It wouldn’t surprise me at all if we took the Buckner path to fill that spot.

[Hawkeyecolt]

Fans think of receivers as 1,2,3 not coaches.  They think X,Yand Z.  Pittman will be compared to the other receivers around the NFL in his category and the paid appropriately by the Colts.  

[OLD FAN MAN]

On 12/7/2023 at 5:56 PM, NewColtsFan said:

Forgive me….   I don’t mean to be argumentative, but I’m a bit perplexed.  
 

I appreciate that it’s not efficient,  but why is top-20 the metric for deciding what is or isn’t efficient.  Why isn’t 25 the magic number?   Or more to the point, since there are 32 teams, why isn’t 32 the magic number?  

Also, I’ve been reading this discussion and there appear to be roughly 3 pages of discussion about how Pittman is used.   That, to an extent, he’s a bit of being a victim of circumstance.  He gets all the short stuff.   
 

And, just for the record, while I’m a very big Pittman fan, I also don’t see him as a legit WR1.   I call him a high level WR2, and I don’t mean it as an insult.  
 

I look forward to your response.   

pittman is our number one. not sure if he could be a number one on any of the top five teams. espn has him ranked number 14 in yards the only other colt in the top 50 is downs who is ranked 43. so he is for certain our number one. anyway he bails us out alot 

[NewColtsFan]

13 minutes ago, OLD FAN MAN said:

pittman is our number one. not sure if he could be a number one on any of the top five teams. espn has him ranked number 14 in yards the only other colt in the top 50 is downs who is ranked 43. so he is for certain our number one. anyway he bails us out alot 

I don’t disagree….  Currently MPJ is our #1.

 

Im just not certain that Steichen and Ballard see him as the Colts future #1.   They might see him as our future #2.   Remember Steichen had Brown and Smith as his WR1 and WR2 in Philly and both are better than MPJ and I don’t mean that as an insult, I’m a big MPJ fan! 
 

Thats why I’ve been saying for months that the Pittman contract has the potential to be more difficult than the Taylor deal.   I hope not, but it could be. 

[compuls1v3]

17 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

Think of it like Trent Richardson’s rookie year with the Browns. He finished with 950 yards rushing and 11 TDs. Usually anything over 1,000 is good for a RB, so a lot of people would see that and say that’s great. But the shocking part was he averaged 3.3 yards a carry. So basically it’s easy to get 1,000 yards or close to it if you get the ball like 30 times a game and just get 3 yards. But look at JT. He’s the type of back that can get the ball 10 times a game and get 8-10 yards a carry.

 

It’s the same concept for receiver. It’s easy to have 100 yard games if you catch 10-11 passes for 10 yards a game. Especially when a lot of defenses run the same soft zone we do that gives up a lot of space underneath. But when you need to push the ball down the field, that doesn’t help. Ideally you want the guys who can get 80 yards off of 3 catche, because those type of receivers are hard to defend and make opposing teams adjust their entire defense. Again, 14+ is the average for the receivers in the top 10 of yearly money. 
 

Basically, when the Titans go back and look at the tape and box score from this past game, they won’t be * at Pittman going 11 for 107 yards and 1 TD for an average of 9.5 YPR. They will have a big issue with Pierce having 100 yards and a TD on 3 catches. Thats the stuff that gets teams beat. 

So by your logic,  are you saying if Pierce was consistent with these types of games,  he'd be considered a number 1? 

[GoColts8818]

I am going to preference this with I said call him what you want he’s going to get paid like an elite WR and I believe that.  I think some are caught up on specific numbers and are missing the forest for the trees.  
 

example who had the better game Sunday Pittman 11 catches for 105 yards and a TD or Pierce with three catches for 100 yards and a TD?  For me personally I’d lean towards Pittman because he was making an impact all game where as Pierce had almost as many yards and the same number of TDs but you only felt him on three plays.  
 

To me your number one WR is the guy you go to when you need a play.  For the Colts that’s Pittman and his number of targets back that up.  No he’s never going to be Harrison, Wayne, or Hilton.  Yes they should keep trying to get a guy like that because as we saw with Harrison and Wayne and later Wayne and Hilton having two elite WRs is a wonderful thing for a QB.  Still Pittman provides a lot of value and makes a huge impact on the Colts offense.  When the Colts had Harrison and Wayne and latter Wayne and Hilton fans screamed for a guy like Pittman, a big physical WR.  Now the Colts have one.  
 

I don’t get the need some seem to have to try to talk down Pittman’s numbers.  He’s clearly the Colts number one WR both in performance and what the team expects of him.  So he’s doing his job.  He’s also produced year in and year out regardless of who the QB has been since he got here and given the mess the Colts QB position has been that’s impressive and proves he’s a good player.  Those are the kind of guys you keep.
 

Also I don’t get why fans are so wrapped up in what he’s going to get paid.  You don’t have to pay it and you don’t have to manage the cap and as I’ve said before even if the Colts pay Pittman it’s not going to stop them from looking for another star WR.  Ballard probably wouldn’t sign one in free agency but frankly that wasn’t going to start with.  First if you’ve paid any attention to him since he’s been here that’s not who Ballard is.  Second truly elite WRs very rarely hit the open market of free agency.  They either get traded or re-signed by their current team.  Still if fans want to worry about that knock your socks off.  I just think it’s kinda pointless because of what I said above but that’s my point of view and my point of view doesn’t speak for everyone.

[Defjamz26]

15 hours ago, compuls1v3 said:

So by your logic,  are you saying if Pierce was consistent with these types of games,  he'd be considered a number 1? 

Yes.

 

If he could consistently average games of 3-4 catches and 100+ yards, he’d be a 1. 

[smittywerb]

20 hours ago, compuls1v3 said:

So by your logic,  are you saying if Pierce was consistent with these types of games,  he'd be considered a number 1? 

Easily.  If Pierce did that consistently, he’s not only beating his man, he’s beating the entire defense.  The defense would have to pay so much attention to him which would open up the offense even more.  That is the problem with this offense.  We don’t have a consistent deep threat.  

 

What Pittman does is productive, but like others have said it’s inefficient.  Pittman gets his yards by a thousand cuts, and defenses are clearly ok with it.  Look at it like this, we’re helping the defense out by shortening the field for them 33% of the offensive plays.  If we throw 30 times, and we can bet 10 of those throws are going to Pittman who isn’t going to run his route more than 10 yds down the field, then as a defense I can bring everyone up and play both the run AND pass without worrying about getting beat deep.  All I need to do is put a safety and corner on Pierce, put a corner on Pittman and let him Play off of him, and make sure my

linebackers are playing the middle for downs and the tight ends.  Or I could blitz, let one of the safeties defend the middle and let a linebacker go after the quarterback.

 

Basically, to beat the colts, you just have to stop the run.  That’s it.  You stop us from running the ball and your chances of beating us increase dramatically.  Let Pittman get his short yardage catches on first or second down, tighten up on third and send pressure because chances are we aren’t going deep.

[jvan1973]

So if I'm getting this right 3 catches for 100 yards and a td and 2 first downs is better 11 catches  for 100 yards a td and 7 first downs?  What kind of nonsense math is that?