MPJ IS a number 1. Period.

[Stephen]

13 hours ago, tweezy32 said:

Lets see how Pierce does the rest of the year 1st. We have seen what he can do now, lets see if he can keep it up or if that will be just his 1 game wonder. If he continues to get thrown to and does exactly what he did against the titans and does more, will yall still want another WR.?

Yes because  even if pierce looks good if he gets hurt then you stuck with Pittman and downs. 

[smittywerb]

10 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

Hunter Renfro?     Seriously?   
 

Your hate for Pitt has reached a new low.   And I didn’t think that was even possible. 

yeah, can’t lie, I have my own thoughts of where MPJ needs to improve or show that he can do those things, but I would never say that lol

[#12.]

Is Pittman a good match with Richardson?  Unless Richardson improves his accuracy, I'm kind of worried a workhorse type receiver like Pittman will be wasted.  For what Pittman does to work, he needs to be in the flow of the game for 4 quarters.

[Moe]

He called into the JMV radio show yesterday for a interview. When asked what he’d been up to yesterday he said duck hunting, I didn’t know he was a hunter. Sorry for the of topic tidbit!

[Boondoggle]

As big wideouts go in order to get paid you need to separate plus show the ability to body defenders, make contested catches, etc.  Specifically you need to be able to stretch the field over the middle and be a threat for explosives on the perimeter.  This is standard stuff in today's NFL as most explosive plays come from those areas.  The example of that type of role for Pittman is Mike Evans.  Pittman still isn't at that level, but he has improved.  Also he's four years younger than Evans.  But Evans was better than Pittman is now a few years ago, and he's still better.  So not sure what Pittman's value will be on the market but I think he is likely to hit the market because he will want more than the Colts want to pay him.  And he doesn't rate a tag.

 

This is because you can find big body receivers who lack in the speed or separation departments into every draft.  Using a similar offense as an example this year's RoY type wideout Nacua went round 5 and is already comparable to Pittman.  Kupp went round 3 or 4 I forget which but from a supply and demand perspective it would be folly to pay Pittman.

 

 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

2 hours ago, #12. said:

Is Pittman a good match with Richardson?  Unless Richardson improves his accuracy, I'm kind of worried a workhorse type receiver like Pittman will be wasted.  For what Pittman does to work, he needs to be in the flow of the game for 4 quarters.

Pittman was great in the small sample with Richardson. Pittman has been good with every QB he has played with and that’s a lot.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

1 hour ago, Moe said:

He called into the JMV radio show yesterday for a interview. When asked what he’d been up to yesterday he said duck hunting, I didn’t know he was a hunter. Sorry for the of topic tidbit!

He has almost an entire farm now. Even an Alpaca. He has goats  and chickens. It’s kind of crazy since he is a Cali boy.  His wife’s dad actually has. Farm in Michigan.  So it’s kind of cool that are close to her family.

[Superman]

20 minutes ago, Boondoggle said:

As big wideouts go in order to get paid you need to separate plus show the ability to body defenders, make contested catches, etc.  Specifically you need to be able to stretch the field over the middle and be a threat for explosives on the perimeter.  This is standard stuff in today's NFL as most explosive plays come from those areas.  The example of that type of role for Pittman is Mike Evans.  Pittman still isn't at that level, but he has improved.  Also he's four years younger than Evans.  But Evans was better than Pittman is now a few years ago, and he's still better.  So not sure what Pittman's value will be on the market but I think he is likely to hit the market because he will want more than the Colts want to pay him.  And he doesn't rate a tag.

 

This is because you can find big body receivers who lack in the speed or separation departments into every draft.  Using a similar offense as an example this year's RoY type wideout Nacua went round 5 and is already comparable to Pittman.  Kupp went round 3 or 4 I forget which but from a supply and demand perspective it would be folly to pay Pittman.

 

If I were a betting man, I'd lay money that the Colts will re-sign Pittman.

[jvan1973]

On 12/5/2023 at 7:45 AM, Defjamz26 said:

https://overthecap.com/position/wide-receiver#google_vignette
 
Those are the WR contracts ranked. You can not put him in the same tier as DJ Moore money wise because the production and stats don’t match up. But that’s the type of money Pitt will likely want. Based on production he’s probably worth closer to what Hunter Renfrow makes. The question is will he be okay with that?

I think you need to look at Renfrows production vs Pittmans

[Defjamz26]

16 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

Hunter Renfro?     Seriously?   
 

Your hate for Pitt has reached a new low.   And I didn’t think that was even possible. 

Never said I hated Pittman. Read my responses in the entire thread. I thinks he’s good. Just not a true number 1, which is what you said as well.

 

As for the Renfrow thing, their career Yard per reception is almost identical. Renfrow is at 10.7 while Pittman is 10.8. Renfrow also has 2 more TDs at 17 for his career. Career yardage is close to and Renfrow missed 7 games last year and 10 in his career. I’m not comparing skill set, I’m comparing production. 
 

Everyone is praising him coming off of his 100 yard game against the Titans. But look at the stats:

 

11 catches for 105 yards which was an average of only 9.5 yards. For comparison, Jamar Chase also caught 11 passes in the Monday night game. He did it for 149 yards with a 13.5 YPC. It’s not hate, it’s just an observation of facts. Pittman does not have numbers that support the notion of him being a WR1. 

[richard pallo]

27 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

If I were a betting man, I'd lay money that the Colts will re-sign Pittman.

100%.

[MikeCurtis]

52 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

If I were a betting man, I'd lay money that the Colts will re-sign Pittman.

We would be crazy not to resign him.  

 

I hope he wants 19-20M and not 30M per year

 

He is not at the same level as some of the true WR1s (Chase/Hill/Adams / Diggs / Metcalf Etc)

 

 

[Superman]

On 12/5/2023 at 5:42 AM, smittywerb said:

If it were me, I’d want him to get no more than $19million.

 

How much of this is a psychological desire to see the number be less than $20m/year?

[chad72]

32 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

How much of this is a psychological desire to see the number be less than $20m/year?

 

Trust me, I was there at one point in time. Now, I am reconciled to $22 mil. per year, lol  

[BlackTiger]

Its an interesting case, hes good but usually you want more out of your best WR.

 

The real question is how much do we give him, its pointless to argue if hes a #1.

 

He might be our #1 like it or not if we cant find anyone better 

[Superman]

5 minutes ago, MikeCurtis said:

He is not at the same level as some of the true WR1s (Chase/Hill/Adams / Diggs / Metcalf Etc

 

You know what I think would help? Agreeing on the verbiage, as it relates to production, impact, and pay range. 

 

Some of the terms being used in this thread: #1 WR, true #1, WR1, elite WR, game breaking WR, go-to receiver... None of those terms are well defined. Even more technical terms like Z/X/Slot receiver have a lot of overlap, and there's not really a league-wide prototype for those positions anymore. Pittman runs 30% of his routes from the slot, and lines up all over the place.

 

Even some of the guys you named above are drastically different in usage and production. Stephon Diggs is a lot more comparable to Pittman than Mike Evans, even though Evans seems like the more logical comp.

 

So I wonder what everyone thinks the proper expectations are, and should be, for the WR1 for a good offense. Is it based more on production, or more on playing style? And what kind of players should Pittman be compared to when we start thinking about the appropriate pay range for him?

[MikeCurtis]

12 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

You know what I think would help? Agreeing on the verbiage, as it relates to production, impact, and pay range. 

 

Some of the terms being used in this thread: #1 WR, true #1, WR1, elite WR, game breaking WR, go-to receiver... None of those terms are well defined. Even more technical terms like Z/X/Slot receiver have a lot of overlap, and there's not really a league-wide prototype for those positions anymore. Pittman runs 30% of his routes from the slot, and lines up all over the place.

 

Even some of the guys you named above are drastically different in usage and production. Stephon Diggs is a lot more comparable to Pittman than Mike Evans, even though Evans seems like the more logical comp.

 

So I wonder what everyone thinks the proper expectations are, and should be, for the WR1 for a good offense. Is it based more on production, or more on playing style? And what kind of players should Pittman be compared to when we start thinking about the appropriate pay range for him?

IMHO

 

The "naming" from a fans perspective isnt that important

 

But..... from my personal opinion, this offense needs a WR that defensive coordinators need to scheme for.

Someone that can score on any play. Someone that has amazing YAC potential. Someone that forces the safeties to play a little deeper.  

 

THIS type of receiver.... call him "WR1", or "explosive AL" for all that matters....

THIS type of receiver is needed to open up running lanes for our star RB

 

As we sit today, (Like Sunday) The Texans were in a modified, 8 man box to slow down the run

 

Edge was MORE effective because we had Marvin, who could take the top off.....

 

Thats all I am saying......  not trying to belittle Pittman..... we need him JUST like we did with Reggie Wayne before

 

 

 

 

THIS team needs THAT type of player

 

The agent for Pittman is going to try and "sell" his client as a top WR1

 

I see Pittman as that Reggie Wayne type......  much needed......  but not at the same level as Harrison

 

[Superman]

1 minute ago, MikeCurtis said:

IMHO

 

The "naming" from a fans perspective isnt that important

 

But..... from my personal opinion, this offense needs a WR that defensive coordinators need to scheme for.

Someone that can score on any play. Someone that has amazing YAC potential. Someone that forces the safeties to play a little deeper.  

 

THIS type of receiver.... call him "WR1", or "explosive AL" for a;; that matters....

THIS type of receiver is needed to open up running lanes for our star RB

 

As we sit today, (Like Sunday) The Texans were in a modified, 8 man box to slow down the run

 

Edge was MORE effective because we had Marvin, who could take the top off.....

 

Thats all I am saying......  not trying to belittle Pittman..... we need him JUST like we did with Reggie Wayne before

 

 

 

 

THIS team needs THAT type of player

 

The agent for Pittman is going to try and "sell" his client as top 

 

 

I don't necessarily agree with everything you're saying here, but I get your point. I agree with the bolded, for sure, and I don't think Pittman is that player. So I think the Colts should continue to try to find that player.

 

But does that mean the Colts should move on from Pittman? That probably depends on his contract expectations, right? So what does the market say he should expect? This is where I think it's important to identify what kind of player Pittman is -- not just what he isn't -- and who he compares to. Because that's what his agent will be presenting.

 

I think if people spend the time to think about realistic comps for Pittman and the contracts those players have, it will be easier to project his market value. And then what it probably comes down to is whether the Colts should pay Pittman his market value, or let him leave in FA. Because trying to tie Pittman to a value that isn't supported by the market is kind of pointless. 

[chad72]

34 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I think if people spend the time to think about realistic comps for Pittman and the contracts those players have, it will be easier to project his market value. And then what it probably comes down to is whether the Colts should pay Pittman his market value, or let him leave in FA. Because trying to tie Pittman to a value that isn't supported by the market is kind of pointless. 

 

Very true. It seems like only the marquee WRs get fully guaranteed amounts in the range of $50 plus million.

 

So, if we want a lower average than say $22 million, the Colts could up the guaranteed money to be a 4 year $80 mil. contract with $45 mil. fully guaranteed but not sure it would work, giving him a lower average when the market says $22 million average. I wonder if that has worked with other positions.

 

https://overthecap.com/position/wide-receiver

 

If you look at this list here, there seems to be WR preferences between fully guaranteed and total guaranteed. A fully guaranteed amount of $45 mil. for Pittman would put him close to Stefon Diggs, IMO.

 

[lester]

2 hours ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

He has almost an entire farm now. Even an Alpaca. He has goats  and chickens. It’s kind of crazy since he is a Cali boy.  His wife’s dad actually has. Farm in Michigan.  So it’s kind of cool that are close to her family.

 

Michael Pittman is one of my favorite Colts. I try to follow as closely as social media will allow. I know the Pittmans want to build a house in Indiana. I believe they have the acreage picked out. But they're waiting to know their future before they pull that trigger.

[Defjamz26]

51 minutes ago, Superman said:

I think if people spend the time to think about realistic comps for Pittman and the contracts those players have, it will be easier to project his market value. And then what it probably comes down to is whether the Colts should pay Pittman his market value, or let him leave in FA. Because trying to tie Pittman to a value that isn't supported by the market is kind of pointless. 

I see him somewhere in the mold of Juju and Courtland Sutton. And the Sutton comp is still hard for me because the YPR from Pittman is so low. 10.8 is one of the worst YPR for any receiver with as many targets as he’s gotten.
 

Another comparison…both the Texans receivers have a higher YPR. Tank Dell will finish his season with 709 yards and a 15.1 YPR. Nico Collins who has the same build as him is currently at 991 yards on only 59 receptions, which is 16.8 YPR. He’s not even the best receiver in the division. I don’t think people realize that although Pittman is good, 10.2 (for the season) is a really BAD number. That is 94th in the league this season. Yes 94th!!!!

[Dingus McGirt]

10 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

I see him somewhere in the mold of Juju and Courtland Sutton. And the Sutton comp is still hard for me because the YPR from Pittman is so low. 10.8 is one of the worst YPR for any receiver with as many targets as he’s gotten.
 

Another comparison…both the Texans receivers have a higher YPR. Tank Dell will finish his season with 709 yards and a 15.1 YPR. Nico Collins who has the same build as him is currently at 991 yards on only 59 receptions, which is 16.8 YPR. He’s not even the best receiver in the division. I don’t think people realize that although Pittman is good, 10.2 (for the season) is a really BAD number. That is 94th in the league this season. Yes 94th!!!!

How much of this can be attributed to the type of routes he’s asked to run?  Seems many of his receptions are in traffic with defenders all over him.  

[DougDew]

1 hour ago, Superman said:

So I wonder what everyone thinks the proper expectations are, and should be, for the WR1 for a good offense. Is it based more on production, or more on playing style?

I've used it to describe talent.

 

#1WR is a label for the WR who, above all else, can threaten the defense with over the top speed.  If he gets beyond the defense, nobody will catch him.  Yes, a lot of times any receiver can score when they get behind the defense, but sometimes a series of conditions makes that possible. 

 

Start with speed routes.  Then the guy needs route running to be able to get separation on more possession types of routes, because he's also used to sit down and move the chains.

 

And having great hands is a given.  No point to having the first two if he drops the ball.

 

Lines up anywhere, including slot.  Gets separation from his speed or agility.  He's probably not the WR that the QB will throw a back shoulder throw to, or expect to win a lot of contested catches.  Those are the guys who get thrown to despite being still reasonably covered.  That's the #2 WR, IMO.

 

A defense should have to double cover a WR #1 almost as a matter of routine game planning.  

 

Probably only about a dozen teams have a true #1 in any given season.  But those are the ones typically in playoff contention.

 

Don't expand the definition just because there are 32 teams with 70 to 90 WRs getting various levels of production.

[jvan1973]

3 minutes ago, DougDew said:

I've used it to describe talent.

 

#1WR is a label for the WR who, above all else, can threaten the defense with over the top speed.  If he gets beyond the defense, nobody will catch him.  Yes, a lot of times any receiver can score when they get behind the defense, but sometimes a series of conditions makes that possible. 

 

Start with speed routes.  Then the guy needs route running to be able to get separation on more possession types of routes, because he's also used to sit down and move the chains.

 

And having great hands is a given.  No point to having the first two if he drops the ball.

 

Lines up anywhere, including slot.  Gets separation from his speed or agility.  He's probably not the WR that the QB will throw a back shoulder throw to, or expect to win a lot of contested catches.  Those are the guys who get thrown to despite being still reasonably covered.  That's the #2 WR, IMO.

 

A defense should have to double cover a WR #1 almost as a matter of routine game planning.  

 

Probably only about a dozen teams have a true #1 in any given season.  But those are the ones typically in playoff contention.

 

Don't expand the definition just because there are 32 teams with 70 to 90 WRs getting various levels of production.

So Marvin wasn't a number 1 wr in your definition 

[chad72]

32 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

I see him somewhere in the mold of Juju and Courtland Sutton. And the Sutton comp is still hard for me because the YPR from Pittman is so low. 10.8 is one of the worst YPR for any receiver with as many targets as he’s gotten.
 

Another comparison…both the Texans receivers have a higher YPR. Tank Dell will finish his season with 709 yards and a 15.1 YPR. Nico Collins who has the same build as him is currently at 991 yards on only 59 receptions, which is 16.8 YPR. He’s not even the best receiver in the division. I don’t think people realize that although Pittman is good, 10.2 (for the season) is a really BAD number. That is 94th in the league this season. Yes 94th!!!!

 

Yeah, regarding the bolded for the "season", Minshew is a big part - his Yards per "attempt" is a dismal 6.7 and Air Yards per "attempt" is a dismal 3.9. For crying out loud, they/he didn't take the long shots to AP till the 12th game of the season. 

 

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/advanced-stats-qb.php

 

That all plays into it, IMO.

[jvan1973]

35 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

I see him somewhere in the mold of Juju and Courtland Sutton. And the Sutton comp is still hard for me because the YPR from Pittman is so low. 10.8 is one of the worst YPR for any receiver with as many targets as he’s gotten.
 

Another comparison…both the Texans receivers have a higher YPR. Tank Dell will finish his season with 709 yards and a 15.1 YPR. Nico Collins who has the same build as him is currently at 991 yards on only 59 receptions, which is 16.8 YPR. He’s not even the best receiver in the division. I don’t think people realize that although Pittman is good, 10.2 (for the season) is a really BAD number. That is 94th in the league this season. Yes 94th!!!!

Who has more first downs?  Who moves the chains?  Every wr can't be Tyreek hill or chase.   I don't think anyone is comparing Pittman to those type of guys.   But comparing him to tank dell, nico, or hunter Renfrew is flawed.    Teams know he is the main target and he still get a ton of catches.  Pittman is a chain mover.  The Chiefs just won a Super Bowl without a wr better than Pittman.   Obviously they have Kelce,  but they would give us any wr on their roster for Pittman 

[chad72]

@Superman @Solid84 @w87r

 

I don't know what all these advanced stats mean but some of them surprised me in Pittman's favor:

 

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/michael-pittman/

 

[Superman]

20 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Probably only about a dozen teams have a true #1 in any given season.

 

I don't think there are even a dozen receivers in the league that fully fit your very lofty definition of a #1 WR. 

 

Tyreek Hill, CeeDee Lamb, AJ Brown (maybe, I think the speed element is questionable), DeVonta Smith (and this is ironic because I think AJ Brown is the better player), JaMarr Chase, Justin Jefferson, Davante Adams (speed probably questionable at this point, but his past production speaks for itself), DK Metcalf, Deebo Samuel... maybe on Calvin Ridley, Zay Flowers... And there's some variance in production and efficiency among this group.

 

And then there are really good, high producing players like Mike Evans, Keenan Allen, Brandon Aiyuk, Stefon Diggs, DeAndre Hopkins, etc., who don't fit your description, but can/have been the best receiver on good playoff teams.

 

So I don't know if your description is one that relates well to the discussion. It seems overly restrictive. And using that description, if you have a highly productive WR who doesn't command a perpetual double team and can't blow the top off the defense every play, then he doesn't qualify at a WR1. Independent of MPJ, what does that mean for your opinion of the market value for this kind of player?

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

1 hour ago, lester said:

 

Michael Pittman is one of my favorite Colts. I try to follow as closely as social media will allow. I know the Pittmans want to build a house in Indiana. I believe they have the acreage picked out. But they're waiting to know their future before they pull that trigger.

They moved to their new house a couple of years ago. They have a ton of land it looks like. 

[Solid84]

1 hour ago, Superman said:

 

You know what I think would help? Agreeing on the verbiage, as it relates to production, impact, and pay range. 

 

Some of the terms being used in this thread: #1 WR, true #1, WR1, elite WR, game breaking WR, go-to receiver... None of those terms are well defined. Even more technical terms like Z/X/Slot receiver have a lot of overlap, and there's not really a league-wide prototype for those positions anymore. Pittman runs 30% of his routes from the slot, and lines up all over the place.

 

Even some of the guys you named above are drastically different in usage and production. Stephon Diggs is a lot more comparable to Pittman than Mike Evans, even though Evans seems like the more logical comp.

 

So I wonder what everyone thinks the proper expectations are, and should be, for the WR1 for a good offense. Is it based more on production, or more on playing style? And what kind of players should Pittman be compared to when we start thinking about the appropriate pay range for him?

First off, my opinon of Pittman is based on what we have seen from him so far and I recognize he hasn't had stable QB play or even good QB play for most of his career. That said there are just several stats that stick out as non-WR1 stats (or whatever we should call it).

 

I mean, Pittman's call sign is a hitch route short of the sticks. That's not really a big boy play in my opinion even if Pittman gets good mileage out of it. Pittman's ADOT (Average depth of target) is 8.1 this season - his career average is 8.6.

   It's also something as simple as TDs. Pittman has 15 TOTAL in his career (4 this season). That doesn't really mark him out as a huge threat.

   Then there's something like his ability to create from nothing. Pittman has forced 4 missed tackles this season. 24 Total in his career. He gets the ball, then runs in free space and gets tackled. He doesn't make defenders miss.

 

Seasonal ADOT, TDs and Missed tackles forced for a bunch of other guys this season:

 

Stephon Diggs: ADOT 10.3 -- TDs 8 -- MTF 19

DJ Moore: ADOT 11.8 -- TDs 6 -- MTF 15

Ja'Marr Chase: ADOT 9.0 -- TDs 7 -- MTF 16

CeeDee Lamb: ADOT 11.1 -- TDs 7 -- MTF 13

Amon-Ra St. Brown: ADOT 6 -- TDs 7.9 -- MTF 11

Davante Adams: ADOT 11.8 -- TDs 4 -- MTF 5

Keenan Allen: ADOT 9.8 -- TDs 7 -- MTF 7

Puka Nacua: ADOT 9.5 -- TDs 4 -- MTF 8

AJ Brown: ADOT 12.4 -- TDs 7 -- MTF 17

DeVonta Smith: ADOT 12.6 -- TDs 6 -- MTF 6

Josh Downs: ADOT 7.3 -- TDs 2 -- MTF 6

Alec Pierce: ADOT 15.4 -- TDs 1 -- MTF 1

 

These are just guys I thought of and not picked for any specific reason. He's comparable to Nacua and Keenan Allen, but doesn't compare favorably to them.

 

I'm not bashing Pittman here. I think he's a great player and I think he can be even better when supported by a guy who the defense need to allocate extra attention to. But we need a playmaker. The guy who can create when there's nothing to find. 

[Superman]

59 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

I see him somewhere in the mold of Juju and Courtland Sutton. And the Sutton comp is still hard for me because the YPR from Pittman is so low. 10.8 is one of the worst YPR for any receiver with as many targets as he’s gotten.
 

Another comparison…both the Texans receivers have a higher YPR. Tank Dell will finish his season with 709 yards and a 15.1 YPR. Nico Collins who has the same build as him is currently at 991 yards on only 59 receptions, which is 16.8 YPR. He’s not even the best receiver in the division. I don’t think people realize that although Pittman is good, 10.2 (for the season) is a really BAD number. That is 94th in the league this season. Yes 94th!!!!

 

Do you agree that yards/catch (and even yards/target) is a stat that should be accompanied by a lot of context? For example, what's the difference between MPJ's stats in 2021 vs 2023? Isn't it the state of the offense, and the quality of the QBing?

 

Speaking of context, to the red bolded, Pittman is #2 in total targets, #5 in target share, and #83 in average target distance (all per playerprofiler). Doesn't that speak to his usage and role in a limited passing offense?

 

Wherever you land on any of that, what I think is important is to determine whether Pittman's production (total, and average) speaks more to the circumstances, or to his ability. And I think there's a lot of grey area in there, but the "really BAD" number you're hanging on to speaks more to the circumstances, IMO.

[Superman]

1 minute ago, Solid84 said:

I'm not bashing Pittman here. I think he's a great player and I think he can be even better when supported by a guy who the defense need to allocate extra attention to. But we need a playmaker. The guy who can create when there's nothing to find. 

 

All good stuff in your post there. Without cherry picking contracts, can you list two or three veteran comps for Pittman?

[Superman]

12 minutes ago, chad72 said:

@Superman @Solid84 @w87r

 

I don't know what all these advanced stats mean but some of them surprised me in Pittman's favor:

 

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/michael-pittman/

 

 

Yeah, it's a solid resource.

[Solid84]

1 minute ago, Superman said:

 

All good stuff in your post there. Without cherry picking contracts, can you list two or three veteran comps for Pittman?

My first impression is he's a slightly worse Keenan Allen, but I don't think Allen's contract is "up to date".

 

Allen got a 4 year $80m contract with $43m guaranteed in 2020. That's about the minimum I think we're looking at for Pittman. Something like $20-25m per year with $45-50m guaranteed?

[Solid84]

5 minutes ago, Solid84 said:

My first impression is he's a slightly worse Keenan Allen, but I don't think Allen's contract is "up to date".

 

Allen got a 4 year $80m contract with $43m guaranteed in 2020. That's about the minimum I think we're looking at for Pittman. Something like $20-25m per year with $45-50m guaranteed?

Just looking at stats there are comparabilities to Davante Adams this season. He got a 5 years $140m contract with a little more than $65m guaranteed. But Adams earned that contract on the back of vastly more productive seasons than this one and I VERY much doubt Pittman gets $28m a year.

[Superman]

4 minutes ago, Solid84 said:

My first impression is he's a slightly worse Keenan Allen, but I don't think Allen's contract is "up to date".

 

Allen got a 4 year $80m contract with $43m guaranteed in 2020. That's about the minimum I think we're looking at for Pittman. Something like $20-25m per year with $45-50m guaranteed?

 

Look at Keenan Allen in 2021, and compare his production with MPJ, despite having a much better QB and more productive passing game (Justin Herbert threw for 5,000 yards and 38 TDs). He's also more of a slot receiver, runs more than half of his routes from the slot.

 

Allen signed for $20m/year in 2020, two years before the big WR pay boost. At the time, he was the 2nd highest paid WR in the league, behind Julio Jones at $22m/year. Now Allen is basically tied for 10th on the list with 5 other guys, and the two highest paid WRs are Tyreek Hill ($30m/year) and Davante Adams ($28m/year). There's been a 25-30% increase in top WR pay in just three years.

 

So if Keenan Allen could get $20m/year three years ago, is it going to be surprising to see MPJ top $20m/year now?

 

11 minutes ago, Solid84 said:

Just looking at stats there are comparabilities to Davante Adams this season. He got a 5 years $140m contract with a little more than $65m guaranteed. But Adams earned that contract on the back of vastly more productive seasons than this one and I VERY much doubt Pittman gets $28m a year.

 

Yeah I think Adams is in a different category. He led the league in yards, catches, and TDs before he signed that deal.

[Solid84]

13 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Look at Keenan Allen in 2021, and compare his production with MPJ, despite having a much better QB and more productive passing game (Justin Herbert threw for 5,000 yards and 38 TDs). He's also more of a slot receiver, runs more than half of his routes from the slot.

 

Allen signed for $20m/year in 2020, two years before the big WR pay boost. At the time, he was the 2nd highest paid WR in the league, behind Julio Jones at $22m/year. Now Allen is basically tied for 10th on the list with 5 other guys, and the two highest paid WRs are Tyreek Hill ($30m/year) and Davante Adams ($28m/year). There's been a 25-30% increase in top WR pay in just three years.

 

So if Keenan Allen could get $20m/year three years ago, is it going to be surprising to see MPJ top $20m/year now?

 

 

Yeah I think Adams is in a different category. He led the league in yards, catches, and TDs before he signed that deal.

True. Usage is different between Allen and Pittman and you're absolutely right about the jump in WR contracts. I just don't feel comfortable giving Pittman such a big contract, when we're still talking about needing an even better WR.

 

Puka Nacua will be looking at Pittman's contract when it's his turn. He's got comparable snaps to Pittman.

 

I'll look around some more and see if I can find a better comp... anything to weasel my way out of admitting Pittman could get $28m lol.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

6 minutes ago, Solid84 said:

True. Usage is different between Allen and Pittman and you're absolutely right about the jump in WR contracts. I just don't feel comfortable giving Pittman such a big contract, when we're still talking about needing an even better WR.

 

Puka Nacua will be looking at Pittman's contract when it's his turn. He's got comparable snaps to Pittman.

 

I'll look around some more and see if I can find a better comp... anything to weasel my way out of admitting Pittman could get $28m lol.

Why can’t we pay Pittman and draft one too? 

[Superman]

9 minutes ago, Solid84 said:

True. Usage is different between Allen and Pittman and you're absolutely right about jump in WR contracts. I just don't feel comfortable giving Pittman such a big contract, when we're still talking about needing an even better WR.

 

Puka Nacua will be looking at Pittman's contract when it's his turn. He's got about more comparable snaps to Pittman.

 

I'll look around some more and see if I can find a better comp... anything to weasel my way out of admitting Pittman could get $28m lol.

 

I don't think he'll be at $28m. A couple years ago I projected close to $25m, but that was based on him improving production after 2021, which he has not. I still think the Colts keep him, he's basically the embodiment of a horseshoe player.

 

The Chargers have two $20m/year receivers. The Bucs will probably keep Mike Evans, and that will probably mean they have two. Those aren't exactly model franchises...

 

But we don't have to pay a QB yet. The Niners have Deebo and McCaffrey, and Aiyuk is coming up. I don't see Ballard signing a $20m/year WR, so if we're going to have this playmaking guy that everyone wants, we're probably going to have to draft him, which means three cost controlled seasons. I'd love to see Pierce become that guy, but that would mean we've already used two of his cost controlled seasons, with little production to show for it.

[KB]

10 minutes ago, Solid84 said:

True. Usage is different between Allen and Pittman and you're absolutely right about the jump in WR contracts. I just don't feel comfortable giving Pittman such a big contract, when we're still talking about needing an even better WR.

 

Puka Nacua will be looking at Pittman's contract when it's his turn. He's got comparable snaps to Pittman.

 

I'll look around some more and see if I can find a better comp... anything to weasel my way out of admitting Pittman could get $28m lol.

I don't think there is anyone who thinks he deserves $28 million a year. Love Pittman but he isn't Hill or Adams. 

 

I see our most likely route for getting a premier WR is in the draft. It would cost us to much to bring in a FA stud or trying to trade for one. Draft is the way to go. With how far we are falling in the draft order I see that as less likely as well. We most likely will not go into next season with a perceived upgrade over Pittman.

 

Saying that, we have to find a way. The best way to help a young qb grow is get him a premier target.