Colts select QB Anthony Richardson Florida (merge)

[richard pallo]

1 minute ago, Blueblood23 said:

Didn’t Irsay say Richardson was going to start game one?

He did and then he tweaked it a little deferring to Shane.  But his message was clear and Shane knows it and he needs to start game one.  There is ample time for them to get him ready to go.  Barring an injury of some kind I believe he will the starter when the season begins.

[Boondoggle]

3 hours ago, RollerColt said:

He needs reps. It's going to be bad, but he needs the reps. That's what's so interesting about this situation. He's not going to get much from being on the bench, in this rare case he needs more experience instead of watching and learning. 

Disagree.  No matter how you slice it a guy at his level of development is best served sitting on the bench and getting a full grasp of the offense before he goes out there and plays.  This protects him from the media and the unwashed masses in their lemming migrations on social media.  The guy was drafted for his upside.

 

Now if he gets into camp and things fall in place quickly enough for him there is room to play him early and that would certainly be a best case type of scenario.  But he has to be ready.  Otherwise you are doing the kid a terrible disservice.  He will get dumped on badly and the front office will be questioned unnecessarily when he starts learning the hard way.

 

There are excellent examples with Mahomes, Rodgers, etc with this.  Now yes there are guys who play quickly but they generally are not raw athletes like Richardson with enormous upside.  Guy like him has to be handled correctly to protect him.  I know he wants to play but maybe let him at least run scout team for part of the season and get into the groove while your bridge QB takes the heat.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Holder said on radio today Richardson and his agent wanted to land in Indy or Carolina. He thought those two teams would be where he would have the best chance of success. Said they liked what they heard from both teams on the kind of offense they would build around him. 

[Superman]

1 hour ago, Nickster said:

I've tended this type of thinking too.  But Boy Baltimore and Philly just bet on it big time with the money they gave to these guys.  I don't think either one of these guys would be very successful without the running game they bring to the table.  Franky, Josh Allen probably fits that bill too.  Will any of these guys be viable dropback guys when and if they lose the mobility?  

 

I don't think you sign either Jackson or Hurts if you don't count on their running game.  Running less, maybe, but it remains to be seen. 

 

First thing for me is that I don't have a problem with them running from the QB position. But I think that style of play will take its toll over time. In fact, Lamar has been hurt in each of the last two seasons, and Hurts got hurt last year. The idea that those guys -- or anyone -- can continue to play that style at QB and not be punished seems crazy to me. And I think everyone involved knows it.

 

I see the money commitment, but I assume that both teams expect those QBs to evolve as time goes on. And both of them are much better in traditional QB areas than they were at the beginning of their careers. I think they both still have some work to do, but the contracts are a bet by the teams that they'll continue to improve in their ability from the pocket. I don't see the contracts as an indication that they intend to keep using them in the same way. Josh Allen's comments support that idea.

 

Quote

 

I definitely think the value of accuracy is valued less.  I don't see Jackson as an NFL QB without the wheels.  Do you?

Fields doesn't go that high and neither does AR.  

 

...

 

I was without a doubt right there with you until probably this year.  Hurts takes many if not most of their most important runs and they run a lot.   Jackson, he's certainly not making a living between the tackles and man is he ever making a living.   Fields.  and more. 

 

I think we might see a little more turnover man.  It is not as time consuming to learn how to run RPO and zone read stuff.  More guys are likely going to be able to do this than can drop deep, scan full field, read, and get the ball out. Teams might be willing to pay these running guys to play for 6-8 years an be used up like many of the other positions.  32 or so was usually the downside of the career.  I think guys like Brees, Manning, and Brady have kind of jaded us into seeing top play in mid to late 30s.  8 years of top play from a running type of QB would be just fine with me. 

 

 

I don't necessarily agree that accuracy is valued less. I think teams see the athleticism as a mitigating factor, while the QB develops. With new offensive approaches, you can function as an offense even if your QB isn't ready to work from the pocket. And it's better for his development because he's getting live reps, and in theory, his mobility can help protect him at times. But I don't think that's meant to be the final form, not for the offense, nor for the QB himself. 

 

That's why I think a guy who is as raw as Richardson, who probably doesn't even get drafted as a QB ten years ago, could go at #4. That's why the Bears are willing to play Fields, even though they can't put together a functional passing game. (And BTW, I think the Bears have been doing it wrong; they need to get the passing game going, because Fields is basically a glorified RB at this point. If the passing game doesn't click in this season, he could be out by 2024.) The ability to get a developing QB on the field sooner while still competing as a team is now fully demonstrated, so more teams will commit to that strategy, even using high picks along the way.

 

And while the Eagles are okay with 24 year old Jalen Hurts running the ball 160 times, that doesn't mean they intend to have 27-28 year old Jalen Hurts running the ball that much. Teams might be willing to turn over the QB position more frequently than in the past, but historically, most QBs don't last as full time starters for a decade anyway. Only the really good ones. But I don't think you even get 6-8 years from a 'featured runner' QB before they get run down, if not seriously injured. If you transition that guy into a more traditional passer, who is still athletic enough to selectively hurt the defense as a runner, you can get a lot more out of him. So 2-3 years from now, Hurts might still be able to have a huge playoff game as a runner, but probably won't be used as a 'featured runner' all season.

 

Ultimately, I think you still have to be able to win from the pocket. Whatever their limitations, Hurts and Jackson are still capable from the pocket, and a lot more accurate than Richardson is at this point. I think it would be a mistake to look at them and think the lesson is that pocket passing and accuracy aren't important anymore.

[Superman]

59 minutes ago, Blueblood23 said:

Didn’t Irsay say Richardson was going to start game one?

 

No. He said "it's Shane's call." Then he said it's gonna be tough for him to play the whole season.

[Nickster]

1 hour ago, Superman said:

 

First thing for me is that I don't have a problem with them running from the QB position. But I think that style of play will take its toll over time. In fact, Lamar has been hurt in each of the last two seasons, and Hurts got hurt last year. The idea that those guys -- or anyone -- can continue to play that style at QB and not be punished seems crazy to me. And I think everyone involved knows it.

 

I see the money commitment, but I assume that both teams expect those QBs to evolve as time goes on. And both of them are much better in traditional QB areas than they were at the beginning of their careers. I think they both still have some work to do, but the contracts are a bet by the teams that they'll continue to improve in their ability from the pocket. I don't see the contracts as an indication that they intend to keep using them in the same way. Josh Allen's comments support that idea.

 

 

I don't necessarily agree that accuracy is valued less. I think teams see the athleticism as a mitigating factor, while the QB develops. With new offensive approaches, you can function as an offense even if your QB isn't ready to work from the pocket. And it's better for his development because he's getting live reps, and in theory, his mobility can help protect him at times. But I don't think that's meant to be the final form, not for the offense, nor for the QB himself. 

 

That's why I think a guy who is as raw as Richardson, who probably doesn't even get drafted as a QB ten years ago, could go at #4. That's why the Bears are willing to play Fields, even though they can't put together a functional passing game. (And BTW, I think the Bears have been doing it wrong; they need to get the passing game going, because Fields is basically a glorified RB at this point. If the passing game doesn't click in this season, he could be out by 2024.) The ability to get a developing QB on the field sooner while still competing as a team is now fully demonstrated, so more teams will commit to that strategy, even using high picks along the way.

 

And while the Eagles are okay with 24 year old Jalen Hurts running the ball 160 times, that doesn't mean they intend to have 27-28 year old Jalen Hurts running the ball that much. Teams might be willing to turn over the QB position more frequently than in the past, but historically, most QBs don't last as full time starters for a decade anyway. Only the really good ones. But I don't think you even get 6-8 years from a 'featured runner' QB before they get run down, if not seriously injured. If you transition that guy into a more traditional passer, who is still athletic enough to selectively hurt the defense as a runner, you can get a lot more out of him. So 2-3 years from now, Hurts might still be able to have a huge playoff game as a runner, but probably won't be used as a 'featured runner' all season.

 

Ultimately, I think you still have to be able to win from the pocket. Whatever their limitations, Hurts and Jackson are still capable from the pocket, and a lot more accurate than Richardson is at this point. I think it would be a mistake to look at them and think the lesson is that pocket passing and accuracy aren't important anymore.

All the evidence forever has been pocket passers.  I just don’t think Jackson and possibly Hurts though it’s early for him would be viable pocket passers without the benefits of their running threats.
 

Yeah man I’m not sold on the strategy either personally, it just looks like some teams are trying it.  So I’m not saying it will work, I’m just saying it appears that some teams are trying it.
 

Running the ball in the NFL is probably one of the worst possible jobs an American can have for his body and his brain.  
 

It is counter to everything we’ve seen in the past, Newton seems like pretty good evidence against doing it, but he had a few productive years and made the big bowl playing that way.

 

Time will tell Supe. Time will tell.

[RollerColt]

31 minutes ago, Nickster said:

Running the ball in the NFL is probably one of the worst possible jobs an American can have for his body and his brain.

As a previous high school and low level college running back, I agree.

 

It’s sad but I hope my son doesn’t follow my footsteps in terms of playing. Looking back, I’m not sure a lifetime of migraines and nausea is worth it unless you have insane talent and have a decent shot at making serious money. 

[Colt.45]

6 hours ago, RollerColt said:

He needs reps. It's going to be bad, but he needs the reps. That's what's so interesting about this situation. He's not going to get much from being on the bench, in this rare case he needs more experience instead of watching and learning. 

 

I'd imagine Shane will give him basic plays to start this season off. Have screen, a QB run, a JT run, and a deep pass and see what happens. 

 

He does show the ability to stay in the pocket and go through some progressions. Let's get him into OTAs as QB1 and kickstart it now. 

It feels like the bet CB and the Colts made is that this 20year old is effectively in his sophomore year of college development and the 54% completion avg from freshman year isn't a total demerit. 

It's a bit odd of course that they're hoping to fill that college jump a lot of these guys make in sophomore year of college except in this case, it is happening in the pros. I agree with you, he needs reps. It depends on what they see in camp, and how far along he is.  The Colts expect to lose games so might as well play the kid and let him gain reps and get that mental fortification built.

 

He wants to be a pocket passer and has better pocket presence at this stage of his development than many other QBs. I think this kid is going to be super, we'll see.

[Colt.45]

5 hours ago, Myles said:

You know that he may not even see the field this year.  Minshew is the guy until we are out of the playoff hunt. 

 

 

The Colts only job this season is growing the young QB. The playoffs shouldn't even be considered at all. Game by game, week by week, quarter by quarter, snap by snap growth. That's it. 

[Superman]

53 minutes ago, Nickster said:

It is counter to everything we’ve seen in the past, Newton seems like pretty good evidence against doing it, but he had a few productive years and made the big bowl playing that way.

 

Cam almost perfectly illustrates what I'm talking about. He reached significant heights -- MVP, SB -- but he never quite became a proficient pocket passer. And about six years in, injuries started taking their toll. If he was a better pocket passer, he could have changed his game along the way, maybe avoided some of the injuries, and prolonged his ability to be a high level QB.

 

He's both an encouraging precedent and a cautionary tale for a guy like Richardson. It shows how we can deploy a player like that, but also warns us not to turn him into a battering ram for half a decade.

[VikingsFanInChennai]

8 hours ago, shasta519 said:

 

Even a well-established exec like Dodds apparently had reservations about AR's experience. So I think turning a 20 year-old traitsy QB with only 13 games in college into a legit franchise QB will and should change how QBs are scouted. Other teams will certainly come to similar educated and trained guesses about QBs. I bet it happens next season.

 

 

 

 

I think it rarely happens.. and did Richardson probably miss some chances to get starting job due to Covid affected seasons..? 

 

This kind of QB rarely comes out of college. 

 

Either they get well polished or well ruined with unlearnable bad habits or being  average talent or great talent with not much drive to succeed...

 

There would always be some traitsy QBs and it's good scouting will consider such QBs more based on how NFL teams are willing to take risks on them, but a raw or inexperienced prospect will rarely be considered even for the Combine, let alone the Draft, unless the QB has some elite trait like Richardson testing 10 on RAS, which rarely happens. 

[Two_pound]

Another thing I think about Richardson is he is way beyond where Newton, Jackson, Fields, Allen, and a few others were when they entered the draft. Richardson is so good athletically and has a pretty good pocket awareness. Sure you would like more than 13 starts of game experience before spending the 4th overall pick in the draft on someone, but he is so good right now it was well worth the risk. Steichen got to the sb with Hurts, let's see what he can do with Richardson! Go Colts!

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Three teams were trying to trade with AZ.  Texans got it done with 2 minutes on the clock. Apparently Ballard told AZ he would beat Sean hawks price if they tried to move up.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

16 minutes ago, Two_pound said:

Another thing I think about Richardson is he is way beyond where Newton, Jackson, Fields, Allen, and a few others were when they entered the draft. Richardson is so good athletically and has a pretty good pocket awareness. Sure you would like more than 13 starts of game experience before spending the 4th overall pick in the draft on someone, but he is so good right now it was well worth the risk. Steichen got to the sb with Hurts, let's see what he can do with Richardson! Go Colts!

That’s kind of trashing newton. He was really good as a rookie.

[VikingsFanInChennai]

9 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Three teams were trying to trade with AZ.  Texans got it done with 2 minutes on the clock. Apparently Ballard told AZ he would beat Sean hawks price if they tried to move up.

so what's that information you had about QBs a week before the draft that you said you can share later? 

 

You said earlier that you can't share before the draft... can you share now? @Restinpeacesweetchloe

[TonyBungee]

3 hours ago, Superman said:

And while the Eagles are okay with 24 year old Jalen Hurts running the ball 160 times, that doesn't mean they intend to have 27-28 year old Jalen Hurts running the ball that much. 

Good point.  A wise person once said “There are good running quarterbacks, but there are no good old running quarterbacks.”

[Stephen]

42 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

That’s kind of trashing newton. He was really good as a rookie.

He was a 60 percent passer compared to lucks 54 percent as a rookie, but I never thought of newton as the most accurate passer completion percentage wise

[Nickster]

1 hour ago, Superman said:

 

Cam almost perfectly illustrates what I'm talking about. He reached significant heights -- MVP, SB -- but he never quite became a proficient pocket passer. And about six years in, injuries started taking their toll. If he was a better pocket passer, he could have changed his game along the way, maybe avoided some of the injuries, and prolonged his ability to be a high level QB.

 

He's both an encouraging precedent and a cautionary tale for a guy like Richardson. It shows how we can deploy a player like that, but also warns us not to turn him into a battering ram for half a decade.

but was the draft pick and the six years worth it?  I think so really.  SB appearances are rare.  
 

look at this way, would you take an SB appearance from AR in a couple years and several competitive knowing AR would be ineffective at the end of it?  I would.  It’s been pretty dry in recent history for Colts fans.  In six years my 8th grader will be in his 2nd year of undergrad and my sophomore should be in med school if things continue the way they’re going.  That’s quite a while.  6 years ago the 8th grader had no front teeth and the soph was not yet pubescent.  It’s a pretty significant amount of time in a human lifespan.

[CR91]

8 hours ago, Myles said:

You know that he may not even see the field this year.  Minshew is the guy until we are out of the playoff hunt. 

 

Sorry to burst your bubble, but the playoffs are the farthest thing for this season. It's about growth and building a foundation. This is a rebuild plain and simple. Imo, this is a 6-8 win team.

[Two_pound]

I wouldn't say I was trashing Newton, I just think Richardson is beyond where Newton was coming out of college. Newton's rookie season he was 280 of 485, 57.7 percent completion. 19 td's to 12 interceptions.Rating of 86.2 and a qbr of 58.3. 741 rushing yards. The Panthers won their final 4 games to finish 7-9. I am very excited to see what Richardson can do this season. Lot's of work to be done. Go Colts!

[NewColtsFan]

3 hours ago, Stephen said:

He was a 60 percent passer compared to lucks 54 percent as a rookie, but I never thought of newton as the most accurate passer completion percentage wise

Luck completed 54 percent as a rookie because of the big chunk play system favored by Arians and Pagano.  
 

Remember, his last two years at Stanford, Luck completed 70 percent of his passes.  He was not inaccurate with throwing flaws when he came to Indy as AR is. 

[Chucklez]

15 hours ago, RollerColt said:

Kind of makes me worried he's already starting to feel all the hits adding up. Last season he seemed to have some up and down games because of pain. 

If you read that article on Allen and watch his press conference where he said that, he actually says (and im paraphrasing here) that he knows he is going to need to change his style of play soon because he knows he is getting older. He didnt say he is feeling all of the hits adding up on him already, it was more a looking ahead that he knows he is going to need to change soon before he does do any damage to himself.

So i wouldnt be "worried" that he is already starting to feel banged up, because he did not say that, just that he knows he isnt going to get any younger and cant continue to play like he currently does forever.

[VikingsFanInChennai]

12 hours ago, VikingsFanInChennai said:

so what's that information you had about QBs a week before the draft that you said you can share later? 

 

You said earlier that you can't share before the draft... can you share now? @Restinpeacesweetchloe

any information you can share regarding this? 

 

@Restinpeacesweetchloe

[BProland85]

15 hours ago, Superman said:

 

No. He said "it's Shane's call." Then he said it's gonna be tough for him to play the whole season.

Hoping that’s truly the case. It should always be up to the coaching staff when a player is ready to play. Meddling owners hurt franchises. 

[Nevbot]

16 hours ago, Superman said:

 

First thing for me is that I don't have a problem with them running from the QB position. But I think that style of play will take its toll over time. In fact, Lamar has been hurt in each of the last two seasons, and Hurts got hurt last year. The idea that those guys -- or anyone -- can continue to play that style at QB and not be punished seems crazy to me. And I think everyone involved knows it.

 

I see the money commitment, but I assume that both teams expect those QBs to evolve as time goes on. And both of them are much better in traditional QB areas than they were at the beginning of their careers. I think they both still have some work to do, but the contracts are a bet by the teams that they'll continue to improve in their ability from the pocket. I don't see the contracts as an indication that they intend to keep using them in the same way. Josh Allen's comments support that idea.

 

 

I don't necessarily agree that accuracy is valued less. I think teams see the athleticism as a mitigating factor, while the QB develops. With new offensive approaches, you can function as an offense even if your QB isn't ready to work from the pocket. And it's better for his development because he's getting live reps, and in theory, his mobility can help protect him at times. But I don't think that's meant to be the final form, not for the offense, nor for the QB himself. 

 

That's why I think a guy who is as raw as Richardson, who probably doesn't even get drafted as a QB ten years ago, could go at #4. That's why the Bears are willing to play Fields, even though they can't put together a functional passing game. (And BTW, I think the Bears have been doing it wrong; they need to get the passing game going, because Fields is basically a glorified RB at this point. If the passing game doesn't click in this season, he could be out by 2024.) The ability to get a developing QB on the field sooner while still competing as a team is now fully demonstrated, so more teams will commit to that strategy, even using high picks along the way.

 

And while the Eagles are okay with 24 year old Jalen Hurts running the ball 160 times, that doesn't mean they intend to have 27-28 year old Jalen Hurts running the ball that much. Teams might be willing to turn over the QB position more frequently than in the past, but historically, most QBs don't last as full time starters for a decade anyway. Only the really good ones. But I don't think you even get 6-8 years from a 'featured runner' QB before they get run down, if not seriously injured. If you transition that guy into a more traditional passer, who is still athletic enough to selectively hurt the defense as a runner, you can get a lot more out of him. So 2-3 years from now, Hurts might still be able to have a huge playoff game as a runner, but probably won't be used as a 'featured runner' all season.

 

Ultimately, I think you still have to be able to win from the pocket. Whatever their limitations, Hurts and Jackson are still capable from the pocket, and a lot more accurate than Richardson is at this point. I think it would be a mistake to look at them and think the lesson is that pocket passing and accuracy aren't important anymore.

 

Nice post.  I would say that making these athletically gifted QB's a solid pocket passer and NFL processor is priority number one.  Their legs simply provide the baseline for a functional offense, confidence building for the young QB by building around RPOs early and cutting his reads to one-read or a half field read. You can't teach a pocket passer to become weapon as a runner, but you can teach a running QB how to pocket pass if the intangibles are there and for AR, they seem to be.

Ease him along until he is having success with the vanilla version of what we want to be and when he starts excelling within his limited packages, start expanding.  It will take two years for his passing to be refined enough to take our foot off the gas in regards to using AR as a runner.  We simply will need to, and he will probably prefer that early too. Just let him ball and react early as opposed to think/overthink. 

[shasta519]

13 hours ago, Two_pound said:

Another thing I think about Richardson is he is way beyond where Newton, Jackson, Fields, Allen, and a few others were when they entered the draft. Richardson is so good athletically and has a pretty good pocket awareness. Sure you would like more than 13 starts of game experience before spending the 4th overall pick in the draft on someone, but he is so good right now it was well worth the risk. Steichen got to the sb with Hurts, let's see what he can do with Richardson! Go Colts!

I think that’s a wild take. Newton and Lamar were Heisman winners. Fields was completing 70% of his passes. AR is not way beyond where those guys were at that point. 

[RollerColt]

17 hours ago, Boondoggle said:

Disagree.  No matter how you slice it a guy at his level of development is best served sitting on the bench and getting a full grasp of the offense before he goes out there and plays.  This protects him from the media and the unwashed masses in their lemming migrations on social media.  The guy was drafted for his upside.

 

Now if he gets into camp and things fall in place quickly enough for him there is room to play him early and that would certainly be a best case type of scenario.  But he has to be ready.  Otherwise you are doing the kid a terrible disservice.  He will get dumped on badly and the front office will be questioned unnecessarily when he starts learning the hard way.

 

There are excellent examples with Mahomes, Rodgers, etc with this.  Now yes there are guys who play quickly but they generally are not raw athletes like Richardson with enormous upside.  Guy like him has to be handled correctly to protect him.  I know he wants to play but maybe let him at least run scout team for part of the season and get into the groove while your bridge QB takes the heat.

Fair point. That's true. My depression is hitting me like a ton of bricks today. So it's a pessimistic Wednesday. I'm not an NFL scout, nor a talent evaluator. Hell I barely have experience to really have much of a say in anything in regards to the NFL. 

 

Today, I'm not feeling as optimistic about this whole thing. His accuracy as many have pointed out is pretty bad... Has any NFL QB been successful with a 53% completion in college? All I can think of is Michael Vick... And well... he's not always the best to follow...

 

https://www.milehighreport.com/2017/8/29/16202308/comparing-multi-year-starting-qbs-college-stats-to-their-nfl-stats

This article does show that some QBs can get better with their completion percentages, but how much of that is better accuracy vs. better receivers? 

 

https://bestballstats.com/2021/04/17/nfl-draft-the-stats-that-correlate-to-quarterback-success/ 

This is what I could find on the correlation of college completion and NFL completion...

[Colt.45]

14 hours ago, VikingsFanInChennai said:

I think it rarely happens.. and did Richardson probably miss some chances to get starting job due to Covid affected seasons..? 

 

This kind of QB rarely comes out of college. 

 

Either they get well polished or well ruined with unlearnable bad habits or being  average talent or great talent with not much drive to succeed...

 

There would always be some traitsy QBs and it's good scouting will consider such QBs more based on how NFL teams are willing to take risks on them, but a raw or inexperienced prospect will rarely be considered even for the Combine, let alone the Draft, unless the QB has some elite trait like Richardson testing 10 on RAS, which rarely happens. 

 

That's why I made the Lebron comp. If folks are saying Bryce is Curry then AR is Bron. Simply from the angle that AR is effectively making the leap from high school to the pros based off the amount of snaps he's played.

[2006Coltsbestever]

26 minutes ago, RollerColt said:

Fair point. That's true. My depression is hitting me like a ton of bricks today. So it's a pessimistic Wednesday. I'm not an NFL scout, nor a talent evaluator. Hell I barely have experience to really have much of a say in anything in regards to the NFL. 

 

Today, I'm not feeling as optimistic about this whole thing. His accuracy as many have pointed out is pretty bad... Has any NFL QB been successful with a 53% completion in college? All I can think of is Michael Vick... And well... he's not always the best to follow...

 

https://www.milehighreport.com/2017/8/29/16202308/comparing-multi-year-starting-qbs-college-stats-to-their-nfl-stats

This article does show that some QBs can get better with their completion percentages, but how much of that is better accuracy vs. better receivers? 

 

https://bestballstats.com/2021/04/17/nfl-draft-the-stats-that-correlate-to-quarterback-success/ 

This is what I could find on the correlation of college completion and NFL completion...

AR will be fine, Shane is the perfect coach for him. He will improve in the right scheme and right players around him. Having Taylor will help a lot to take pressure off of him and Pittman is a 100 receptions type guy. AR with his athletic ability can even offset bad O.Line play at times. Josh Allen had a 3 year career in college and threw for only 56% of his passes, he is now a top 5 QB in the league.

[Colt.45]

13 hours ago, Nickster said:

but was the draft pick and the six years worth it?  I think so really.  SB appearances are rare.  
 

look at this way, would you take an SB appearance from AR in a couple years and several competitive knowing AR would be ineffective at the end of it?  I would.  It’s been pretty dry in recent history for Colts fans.  In six years my 8th grader will be in his 2nd year of undergrad and my sophomore should be in med school if things continue the way they’re going.  That’s quite a while.  6 years ago the 8th grader had no front teeth and the soph was not yet pubescent.  It’s a pretty significant amount of time in a human lifespan.

Cam Newton's career has become one where folks forget what a dominant QB he was. Some of his issues never got fixed but he was a legit franchise QB. Not Peyton or Brees or Brady but plenty effective.

[Colt.45]

10 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

Luck completed 54 percent as a rookie because of the big chunk play system favored by Arians and Pagano.  
 

Remember, his last two years at Stanford, Luck completed 70 percent of his passes.  He was not inaccurate with throwing flaws when he came to Indy as AR is. 

 

Yup. The Colts are attempting something ambitious but the payoff could be magical.

Luck's frosh season at Stanford, he was a 56% passer who rushed for 300something yards. 

The Colts have made a huge traits bet here but for where AR is at in development (based off snaps), the biggest trait they've bet on isnt athleticism or arm power or even pocket presence, it's the young man's work ethic and desire. They're betting that with all the natural tools he has, if he works hard and their character estimation is correct, there's no way he doesn't make the leap.

We'll see. The NFL is tough even for guys like Luck and Manning. Growth and work ethic are the big keys here.

 

The odds of success are not sky high but I'm betting against history and such, i think he's going to be a star

[2006Coltsbestever]

12 minutes ago, Colt.45 said:

Cam Newton's career has become one where folks forget what a dominant QB he was. Some of his issues never got fixed but he was a legit franchise QB. Not Peyton or Brees or Brady but plenty effective.

Cam Newton is a borderline Hall of Famer, he probably won't get in but he won a League MVP and led his team to a SB appearance. He set a rookie record for most passing yards in 2011 with 4051 yards as well, it was a record at the time, Luck broke it the year after. From 2011-2017 his record was 62-45, he was a very good dual QB. For his career he only had a 60% comp rate and still won a lot and made some clutch throws. His running ability made it tough for anyone to defend for around 6 or 7 years.

[stitches]

17 hours ago, Superman said:

 

That's why I think a guy who is as raw as Richardson, who probably doesn't even get drafted as a QB ten years ago, could go at #4.

Agree with a lot of the rest of the post, disagree with this one. How much further along in his development as a passer was Michael Vick? In 2 years he completed about as many passes as Richardson did in his single year starting and his completion % in the second year was almost identical to Richardson's. And he's much smaller of course. I think this type of athletes are always sought after. The disconnect comes from people thinking those types of athletes come along every few years, when in reality it's more like once every decade(Vick, Cam, Richardson) and when they do, they get drafted high for their potential. 

[shasta519]

1 hour ago, RollerColt said:

Fair point. That's true. My depression is hitting me like a ton of bricks today. So it's a pessimistic Wednesday. I'm not an NFL scout, nor a talent evaluator. Hell I barely have experience to really have much of a say in anything in regards to the NFL. 

 

Today, I'm not feeling as optimistic about this whole thing. His accuracy as many have pointed out is pretty bad... Has any NFL QB been successful with a 53% completion in college? All I can think of is Michael Vick... And well... he's not always the best to follow...

 

If you want to feel optimistic, go watch his game tape against Tennessee. It's on YT. There are lots of good flashes in there. Granted, it's TENN, it's not UGA. 

 

He moves around the pocket well and he's hard to bring down (though NFL players will be stronger and faster). His mechanics and footwork clearly need help. Because of this, he will throw some great passes and some wth passes. 

 

Considering he seems to throw 95 MPH fastballs every time, I think his WRs got a bad rap. You can see them some drops, but you can also see them making plays in this game...breaking tackles and getting YAC or adjusting to passes.

 

 

[throwing BBZ]

18 hours ago, Superman said:

 

First thing for me is that I don't have a problem with them running from the QB position. But I think that style of play will take its toll over time. In fact, Lamar has been hurt in each of the last two seasons, and Hurts got hurt last year. The idea that those guys -- or anyone -- can continue to play that style at QB and not be punished seems crazy to me. And I think everyone involved knows it.

 

I see the money commitment, but I assume that both teams expect those QBs to evolve as time goes on. And both of them are much better in traditional QB areas than they were at the beginning of their careers. I think they both still have some work to do, but the contracts are a bet by the teams that they'll continue to improve in their ability from the pocket. I don't see the contracts as an indication that they intend to keep using them in the same way. Josh Allen's comments support that idea.

 

 

I don't necessarily agree that accuracy is valued less. I think teams see the athleticism as a mitigating factor, while the QB develops. With new offensive approaches, you can function as an offense even if your QB isn't ready to work from the pocket. And it's better for his development because he's getting live reps, and in theory, his mobility can help protect him at times. But I don't think that's meant to be the final form, not for the offense, nor for the QB himself. 

 

That's why I think a guy who is as raw as Richardson, who probably doesn't even get drafted as a QB ten years ago, could go at #4. That's why the Bears are willing to play Fields, even though they can't put together a functional passing game. (And BTW, I think the Bears have been doing it wrong; they need to get the passing game going, because Fields is basically a glorified RB at this point. If the passing game doesn't click in this season, he could be out by 2024.) The ability to get a developing QB on the field sooner while still competing as a team is now fully demonstrated, so more teams will commit to that strategy, even using high picks along the way.

 

And while the Eagles are okay with 24 year old Jalen Hurts running the ball 160 times, that doesn't mean they intend to have 27-28 year old Jalen Hurts running the ball that much. Teams might be willing to turn over the QB position more frequently than in the past, but historically, most QBs don't last as full time starters for a decade anyway. Only the really good ones. But I don't think you even get 6-8 years from a 'featured runner' QB before they get run down, if not seriously injured. If you transition that guy into a more traditional passer, who is still athletic enough to selectively hurt the defense as a runner, you can get a lot more out of him. So 2-3 years from now, Hurts might still be able to have a huge playoff game as a runner, but probably won't be used as a 'featured runner' all season.

 

Ultimately, I think you still have to be able to win from the pocket. Whatever their limitations, Hurts and Jackson are still capable from the pocket, and a lot more accurate than Richardson is at this point. I think it would be a mistake to look at them and think the lesson is that pocket passing and accuracy aren't important anymore.

 

  As reported, Lamar's injuries occurred in the pocket. 

 I hope AR plays smarter, and slides better than young, LB'er like Luck did.

That wouldn't take much!

[shasta519]

1 hour ago, RollerColt said:

https://www.milehighreport.com/2017/8/29/16202308/comparing-multi-year-starting-qbs-college-stats-to-their-nfl-stats

This article does show that some QBs can get better with their completion percentages, but how much of that is better accuracy vs. better receivers? 

 

https://bestballstats.com/2021/04/17/nfl-draft-the-stats-that-correlate-to-quarterback-success/ 

This is what I could find on the correlation of college completion and NFL completion...

 

Typically, there isn't a lot of stability in any QB stats. However, comp % is one of the more stable metrics when projecting to the NFL. And nearly all of that stability comes from the short area (0-9) yards.

 

Going back to 2015, here is the correlation for 4 different areas of the field for QBs in their 2nd and 3rd seasons in the NFL (37 total). You can clearly see the difference in short area vs. the rest:

 

 

Edit: Maybe you can't clearly see it cause it's so small haha.

 

Here are the numbers:

Behind LOS: -0.038

Short (0-9 yards): +0.133

Medium (10-19 yards): -0.017

Deep: (20+ yards): +0.017

 

[shasta519]

1 hour ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

AR will be fine, Shane is the perfect coach for him. He will improve in the right scheme and right players around him. Having Taylor will help a lot to take pressure off of him and Pittman is a 100 receptions type guy. AR with his athletic ability can even offset bad O.Line play at times. Josh Allen had a 3 year career in college and threw for only 56% of his passes, he is now a top 5 QB in the league.

 

A few differences:

• Allen was at Wyoming though. Despite AR's WR talent being less than it is for others, he was still playing with 4-star and 5-star recruits. And Pearsall made a lot of tough catches.
• Allen put more NFL throws on tape...especially off-platform. But that's JMO as they both clearly have huge arms.
• Allen's issues were more on deep passes and behind LOS, which were, in theory, easier to fix with mechanic tweaks (behind LOS) or improve with NFL talent (deep passing).
• AR's overall short-area improvement is beyond Allen

Allen is just such a lofty comparison at this point. But it does show that a QB can dramatically improve at the NFL level.

[shasta519]

1 hour ago, Colt.45 said:

 

Yup. The Colts are attempting something ambitious but the payoff could be magical.

Luck's frosh season at Stanford, he was a 56% passer who rushed for 300something yards. 

The Colts have made a huge traits bet here but for where AR is at in development (based off snaps), the biggest trait they've bet on isnt athleticism or arm power or even pocket presence, it's the young man's work ethic and desire. They're betting that with all the natural tools he has, if he works hard and their character estimation is correct, there's no way he doesn't make the leap.

We'll see. The NFL is tough even for guys like Luck and Manning. Growth and work ethic are the big keys here.

 

The odds of success are not sky high but I'm betting against history and such, i think he's going to be a star

 

After two very disappointing seasons and a frustrating series of QB changes, it's interesting that they are willing to risk more games and potentially even seasons...since they don't have a viable vet starter to allow AR to sit back and learn for a season. And it doesn't even sound like they want that either.

 

He's going to learn on the fly. And those other QBs who had low comp % in their first college seasons had the advantage of learning with experience and over time at the college level...before making the huge jump to the NFL. That's a big difference IMO.

 

AR is skipping that part and making the huge leap right now, which is sort of like graduating halfway through a pre-med degree program and going right into the surgery room. You could have a great teacher/mentor, but it's very hard to replace learning from experience at a proper pace.

 

But they do seem to be managing expectations much better this time around. 

[cdgacoltsfan]

3 hours ago, VikingsFanInChennai said:

any information you can share regarding this? 

 

@Restinpeacesweetchloe

[krunk]

Peyton Manning said AR needs reps

Phil Simms said AR needs reps

Chris Simms said AR needs reps

Dan Orlovsky said AR needs reps

Kurt Warner said alot of it is he needs more reps

 

Kurt Warner on Richardson weaknesses

 

Peyton and Eli both agree that Anthony Richardson could use some more reps but that just means that what Anthony Richardson is now is not the final product. He has some room to work and the Colts staff will do a great job at developing that in the coming season and years.

Did Peyton really refer to Richardson that he is like Josh Allen? Yes he did because of the playmaking ability that Richardson brings to the field. He can be a physical runner. Peyton says, “He’s like a tight end under center. Imagine Rob Gronkowski lining up under center.”

To close Peyton said Richardson had arm strength, but not arm talent just yet.

https://1075thefan.com/91216/peyton-eli-manning-review-tape-on-new-colts-qb-anthony-richardson/

 

 

This is what these former quarterbacks all said consistently when it came to what will address his issues the most.   The Colts by stressing that he needs to play seem to be of a similar mind set.  Orlovsky went so far as to say he didn't really feel that AR wasn't accurate more so than his issues being a lack of experience and that his WR dropped the ball a ton.   But the stat crunching committee seems to always be more skeptical than the people who played the game.   I don't want to completely dismiss stats but I do think there is an analysis paralysis that gets created and people value those findings more so than the words of the people who spent years playing the position.  

 

I think it's better to take it all into account to have a balanced view point.