Betting Odds on Reich getting fired (BetOline)

[TheShadow]

 

 

 

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FVzDRrsXEAAtOoq?format=jpg&name=small

[#12.]

Being fired first, he's not a good bet.  He wouldn't be fired in season, as he's shown an ability to come back from 1-4, 1-5.  Following the season, I'm not sure he's a good bet.  Irsay took forever to fire Grigson and Ballard doesn't make rash decisions.

[EastStreet]

 

[EastStreet]

2 minutes ago, #12. said:

Getting fired first, he's not a good bet.  He wouldn't be fired in season, as he's shown an ability to come back from 1-4, 1-5.  Following the season, I'm not sure he's a good bet.  Irsay took forever to fire Grigson and Ballard doesn't make rash decisions.

 

I think it really all depends. Dropping either of our first two games against awful teams might warm his seat up. Dropping both would make it really hot lol. 

 

Doubt we lose to either, but didn't think we'd have a total team collapse vs Jax last season to kill our playoff spot either. 

 

And aside from that, teams are getting less patient, or simply see in-season firings as a means to get a jump on would-be available coaches that will likely be hot commodities. We missed out on several coaches last round. Reich wasn't even in the 1st round. He wasn't in the top 2 in second round either. 

[#12.]

Yeah, who knows what might happen.

 

That said, I don't expect Frank to be fired.  I see them qualifying and making some noise in the playoffs.  

[Boondoggle]

If they start slow I expect he'll be in the running for first fired.  Irsay is not messing around and he still has the taste of that late season collapse in his mouth.

 

But I do think it's unlikely they start slow with Ryan settling things down at QB.  This season is going to come down to the defense I think, because the offense is going to be playoff caliber.  Not so sure about the other side of the ball.

[Four2itus]

[EastStreet]

He made a few hot seat articles as well

 

https://nflspinzone.com/2022/06/01/5-nfl-head-coaches-fired-2023/3/

https://arrowheadlive.com/index.php/2022/02/24/way-too-early-hot-seat-for-head-coaches-in-the-nfl/

https://fansided.com/2022/05/28/nfl-hot-seat-matt-rhule-mike-mccarthy-fired/

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10037447-nfl-players-and-coaches-on-the-hot-seat-entering-2022

[PRnum1]

We should beat the Texans but jags will be tough in an away game.

 

They had a really nice draft and added a great pass rusher.

 

Also they have a real coach this season so I expect Lawrence to be much better.

 

By no means is the jags game a gimme 

[sb41champs]

ZERO!!

[EastStreet]

12 minutes ago, PRnum1 said:

We should beat the Texans but jags will be tough in an away game.

 

They had a really nice draft and added a great pass rusher.

 

Also they have a real coach this season so I expect Lawrence to be much better.

 

By no means is the jags game a gimme 

I like DE Walker (their 1st pick) but did you know they're working him at OLB... He was projected as a DE in both even and odd fronts given he's 275... Not sure I understand that. 

 

Both Jax's OL and DL rank near the bottom in PFF's 2022 projections. 

 

I expect Lawrence to improve. But if I recall, he had the worst QBR in the league last season. So really he can't get worse. He's got some good skill players around him, but I just don't see the OL improving much. They lost their best OL from last season, but I think they brought in a decent replacement. I'm assuming the O scheme change will help though. 

 

Regardless, both our OL and DL are superior on paper in every way. 

[holeymoley99]

I would think Stefanski may be the most likely, much more then Rhule. With it looking more likely Watson may be suspended for 2022 and Jacoby having to run things it may become a mess real fast there.

[EastStreet]

18 minutes ago, holeymoley99 said:

I would think Stefanski may be the most likely, much more then Rhule. With it looking more likely Watson may be suspended for 2022 and Jacoby having to run things it may become a mess real fast there.

 

It's going to get interesting. I read that during a settlement attempt between the NFL/NFLPA/Watson, that Watson pretty much said no thanks, and wanted to go to arbitration. 

 

Reported that Watson's team will argue that Kraft, who was video'd getting a happy ending, had pretty much no penalty after Goodell said that the conduct policy was the same for players, staff, and owners.... Read one article that said the NFLPA would likely call on Kraft to testify lol.... Watson could make this very ugly for the NFL and Kraft. 

 

I'm guessing the arbitrator will agree that any punishment must be consistent. And after all, no chargers were ever brought against Watson, but were brought against Kraft.

 

Also reported that it could get very ugly for the Texans. Supposedly they helped make the appointments for the handies, and even provided Watson with NDAs for the girls to sign. 

 

Wouldn't be shocked to see the NFL cave either... 

 

[holeymoley99]

20 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

It's going to get interesting. I read that during a settlement attempt between the NFL/NFLPA/Watson, that Watson pretty much said no thanks, and wanted to go to arbitration. 

 

Reported that Watson's team will argue that Kraft, who was video'd getting a happy ending, had pretty much no penalty after Goodell said that the conduct policy was the same for players, staff, and owners.... Read one article that said the NFLPA would likely call on Kraft to testify lol.... Watson could make this very ugly for the NFL and Kraft. 

 

I'm guessing the arbitrator will agree that any punishment must be consistent. And after all, no chargers were ever brought against Watson, but were brought against Kraft.

 

Also reported that it could get very ugly for the Texans. Supposedly they helped make the appointments for the handies, and even provided Watson with NDAs for the girls to sign. 

 

Wouldn't be shocked to see the NFL cave either... 

 

Going to be interesting,heard Browns were inquiring if the trade could be reversed because they were lead to believe only a 6 game suspension at the time of the trade now looking like all season but like you said who knows, but wouldnt want to be Stefanski. Behind Jacoby only Josh Dobbs,too bad a QB like Baker Mayfield isnt available...oh wait.....lol

[AwesomeAustin]

I think Reich’s seat is extremely warm.  Its a playoffs or bust year for him.  Just like we couldnt get WR interest in FA, we weren’t getting a coach either with the plan to trade/cut Wentz. 
 

I think Reich is capable of being a very good coach but he sometimes cant get out of his own way. Like I said in other threads, he is the Carson Wentz of coaches. Barring unfortunate injuries, there are no more excuses.  This is a playoff caliber team that can make the AFC championship game. Reichs job is to get them there or it will be someone else’s. 

[EastStreet]

8 minutes ago, holeymoley99 said:

Going to be interesting,heard Browns were inquiring if the trade could be reversed because they were lead to believe only a 6 game suspension at the time of the trade now looking like all season but like you said who knows, but wouldnt want to be Stefanski. Behind Jacoby only Josh Dobbs,too bad a QB like Baker Mayfield isnt available...oh wait.....lol

 

If I had to bet, I'd bet on 4-6 games. Either Kraft and the McNairs tell Goodell to make it go away, or the arbitrator finds that his punishment can't be worse than Krafts, which was nothing. I doubt it matters that the video of Kraft was thrown out. The arbitration proceedings is not a court of law. And Kraft won't want to testify as he can't plead the 5th, and if he had to talk, it would make him vulnerable to NFL penalties too. The NFL more or less dropped everything because Kraft wouldn't talk to them, and the NFL wasn't willing to interview the prosecution team, or look for witnesses from the spa. 

[AwesomeAustin]

9 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

If I had to bet, I'd bet on 4-6 games. Either Kraft and the McNairs tell Goodell to make it go away, or the arbitrator finds that his punishment can't be worse than Krafts, which was nothing. I doubt it matters that the video of Kraft was thrown out. The arbitration proceedings is not a court of law. And Kraft won't want to testify as he can't plead the 5th, and if he had to talk, it would make him vulnerable to NFL penalties too. The NFL more or less dropped everything because Kraft wouldn't talk to them, and the NFL wasn't willing to interview the prosecution team, or look for witnesses from the spa. 

I dont think there should be any punishment. He already sat out a year and looks like he has settled most cases and the others will work themselves out. Time to move on. 

[EastStreet]

14 minutes ago, AwesomeAustin said:

I dont think there should be any punishment. He already sat out a year and looks like he has settled most cases and the others will work themselves out. Time to move on. 

I tend to agree he shouldn't get punished. Not because he had to sit out though (he still got paid). 

But more because while certainly icky, the whole thing wreaked like a money grab.

Girls don't fly in, and sign NDAs, just to give massages lol... 

And I find the Kraft situation over-the-top hypocritical. He was caught red handied on vid... lol.

His big dollar legal team got things thrown out on technicalities. And heck, that was a sex trafficking bust. 

And IIRC, they deported the poor girl that gave the handy quickly to get her out of the country and make her unavailable.

[Four2itus]

55 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

But more because while certainly icky, the whole thing wreaked like a money grab.

To me, this reeks of a rich NFL perv getting away with things because of his occupation and his wealth. 

[EastStreet]

2 minutes ago, Four2itus said:

To me, this reeks of a rich NFL perv getting away with things because of his occupation and his wealth. 

He's icky no doubt. Doesn't mean it's not a money grab. All the same lawyer. Charges dropped. IIRC, several of the "massage therapist" had histories of a certain old profession. And if he's a perv, so is Kraft, who got zero punishment. And it sounds like Houston aided him in all this... gave him a hand so to speak. So icky perv team.... 

[Four2itus]

19 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

He's icky no doubt. Doesn't mean it's not a money grab. All the same lawyer. Charges dropped. IIRC, several of the "massage therapist" had histories of a certain old profession. And if he's a perv, so is Kraft, who got zero punishment. And it sounds like Houston aided him in all this... gave him a hand so to speak. So icky perv team.... 

I have never accepted the way the Kraft thing was handled. It's the second time he has gotten away with things even when there was video evidence. 

[EastStreet]

14 minutes ago, Four2itus said:

I have never accepted the way the Kraft thing was handled. It's the second time he has gotten away with things even when there was video evidence. 

The Kraft story is pretty wild. There's an article out there that dives deep into what happened. 

And the NFL was never interested in pursuing anything against him. 

So much hypocrisy. Just like the NBA. 

I hope it's get ugly this week, and Kraft gets pulled into the whole thing.  

[AwesomeAustin]

2 hours ago, Four2itus said:

I have never accepted the way the Kraft thing was handled. It's the second time he has gotten away with things even when there was video evidence. 

Im betting there has been more we dont know about.  Im sure there were moments Irsay was out of line when he was using drugs.  Money makes things go away.  Im not saying im ok with it but I accept it. Is what it is. 
 

 

[AKB]

this is silly

[2006Coltsbestever]

Frank isn't going to be fired early lol. That is silly talk. Odd that Vegas feels like that with those odds. Now if we don't win the division or make the playoffs who knows?? But that decision will obviously be made at the end of the season.

[Solid84]

Barring a complete collapse I doubt he's going to get fired early. If he performs significantly below expectations there's a chance he gets fired after the season. I think his seat is hotter than some want to admit.

[Yoshinator]

5 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Frank isn't going to be fired early lol. That is silly talk. Odd that Vegas feels like that with those odds. Now if we don't win the division or make the playoffs who knows?? But that decision will obviously be made at the end of the season.

You are probably right, but I'll give a counter-argument for the other side. 

 

1.) Even though you could point to evidence that Irsay has been patient with Coaches and GMs in the past, it's a little different today. In 2015-2017 (the point you could start arguing that Grigson and Pagano weren't working out) we were still less than 10 years removed from a SB win, 6-8 years from a SB appearance, and we had Andrew Luck to piggyback off of where there was still a lot of hope at that time.

 

2.) Ballard and Reich have applied band-aid QBs since 2019 after Luck retired. No effort has been made yet to draft a franchise QB. The only effort at a long-term QB was Wentz. We have had a few opportunities to try and move up for a QB. Could of done it for Tua and Herbert in 2020. Could of also done it for Fields or Mac Jones in 2021 if we would of beat the Bears trade offer. 

 

3.) This is something that isn't added to this discussion a lot, but Irsay is now 63 years old. He hasn't won a SB since he was 47. He hasn't made one since he was 50. Patience eventually runs out. Patience turns to impatience as you get older and more desperate. Although we have a good team right now, our future is uncertain once Matt Ryan leaves in 2 years. The best we can say right now is we have a decent shot with a 37 year old Matt Ryan. After that, we are in QB purgatory again unless we fill it with another band-aid, or draft one in the first round (most likely).

 

4.) Ballard and Reich haven't done a whole lot to contend over the last 4-5 years. Ballard has built a strong team besides the QB, but Reich has really hurt this team, both in coaching and non-coaching ways. He's likely to be the fall guy if we miss the playoffs.

 

5.) Finally, look at the beginning of the schedule. Texans, Jaguars (in Jax), Chiefs, Titans. If we start out 1-3 or worse and one of those losses is in Jax again, that could be the boiling point for Irsay. You saw how it affected him when we lost in Jax last year at the end of the year. He is aware we haven't beat them in Jax since 2014. Irsay is aware of the slow starts we've had. If we do it again, there's an outside chance Reich could get fired at the quarter point or the midway point of the season. If we miss the playoffs, I'd bet money Reich is gone at the end of the season.

[2006Coltsbestever]

28 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

You are probably right, but I'll give a counter-argument for the other side. 

 

1.) Even though you could point to evidence that Irsay has been patient with Coaches and GMs in the past, it's a little different today. In 2015-2017 (the point you could start arguing that Grigson and Pagano weren't working out) we were still less than 10 years removed from a SB win, 6-8 years from a SB appearance, and we had Andrew Luck to piggyback off of where there was still a lot of hope at that time.

 

2.) Ballard and Reich have applied band-aid QBs since 2019 after Luck retired. No effort has been made yet to draft a franchise QB. The only effort at a long-term QB was Wentz. We have had a few opportunities to try and move up for a QB. Could of done it for Tua and Herbert in 2020. Could of also done it for Fields or Mac Jones in 2021 if we would of beat the Bears trade offer. 

 

3.) This is something that isn't added to this discussion a lot, but Irsay is now 63 years old. He hasn't won a SB since he was 47. He hasn't made one since he was 50. Patience eventually runs out. Patience turns to impatience as you get older and more desperate. Although we have a good team right now, our future is uncertain once Matt Ryan leaves in 2 years. The best we can say right now is we have a decent shot with a 37 year old Matt Ryan. After that, we are in QB purgatory again unless we fill it with another band-aid, or draft one in the first round (most likely).

 

4.) Ballard and Reich haven't done a whole lot to contend over the last 4-5 years. Ballard has built a strong team besides the QB, but Reich has really hurt this team, both in coaching and non-coaching ways. He's likely to be the fall guy if we miss the playoffs.

 

5.) Finally, look at the beginning of the schedule. Texans, Jaguars (in Jax), Chiefs, Titans. If we start out 1-3 or worse and one of those losses is in Jax again, that could be the boiling point for Irsay. You saw how it affected him when we lost in Jax last year at the end of the year. He is aware we haven't beat them in Jax since 2014. Irsay is aware of the slow starts we've had. If we do it again, there's an outside chance Reich could get fired at the quarter point or the midway point of the season. If we miss the playoffs, I'd bet money Reich is gone at the end of the season.

Good points, but I don't see us starting 1-3. If we start 1-3 that would be shocking. If we start 1-3 then your post is very valid no doubt and Irsay could blow a gasket that I will agree with. The schedule really favors us early is why I was surprised at the Vegas odds regarding early firings.

[LJpalmbeacher2]

Football trends are often just that, for some reasons they sometimes continue for years, decades for no logical reasons.

 

The colts need to buck the trends in the first 2 games. First they need to win the opener which they haven't for like 6 or 7 years.

Second, they play in Jacksonville in week 2, a place they haven't won in a while.

On paper, they should win the opener  easily....the Jags could be much improved and more difficult BUT should win there too.

 

But still their trends the colts haven't bucked for a while, since around Ballard coming here I think?

Losing just 1 of those games could warm Reich's seat even more. Losing both will probably put him home with family on Sunday's. 

Remember, colts have 2 former HCs on staff and it would be a easier transition than most firings

 

[shasta519]

16 hours ago, EastStreet said:

 

It's going to get interesting. I read that during a settlement attempt between the NFL/NFLPA/Watson, that Watson pretty much said no thanks, and wanted to go to arbitration. 

 

Reported that Watson's team will argue that Kraft, who was video'd getting a happy ending, had pretty much no penalty after Goodell said that the conduct policy was the same for players, staff, and owners.... Read one article that said the NFLPA would likely call on Kraft to testify lol.... Watson could make this very ugly for the NFL and Kraft. 

 

I'm guessing the arbitrator will agree that any punishment must be consistent. And after all, no chargers were ever brought against Watson, but were brought against Kraft.

 

Also reported that it could get very ugly for the Texans. Supposedly they helped make the appointments for the handies, and even provided Watson with NDAs for the girls to sign. 

 

Wouldn't be shocked to see the NFL cave either... 

 

I figured there were some reasons this hasn’t been completed. Wonder if he will end up with any suspension at all.

[Four2itus]

When was the last time Irsay fired a coach mid-season?

[Four2itus]

14 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Frank isn't going to be fired early lol. That is silly talk. Odd that Vegas feels like that with those odds. Now if we don't win the division or make the playoffs who knows?? But that decision will obviously be made at the end of the season.

Yes.

[GoColts8818]

29 minutes ago, Four2itus said:

When was the last time Irsay fired a coach mid-season?

Jim has not his father fired Ron Meyer during the 1991 season when they were on their way to a 1-15 season.  

[Four2itus]

23 minutes ago, GoColts8818 said:

Jim has not his father fired Ron Meyer during the 1991 season when they were on their way to a 1-15 season.  

Yes. I was asking the question to get people to think. 

[Nesjan3]

Wont be early or mid season but if we dont win the division and miss the playoffs again I bet he is done.

[AwesomeAustin]

4 hours ago, Four2itus said:

Yes. I was asking the question to get people to think. 

I dont think he will be fired during the season. Very slight possibility at the bye if the wheels have fallen off. I still think the Colts make the playoffs so we are discussing very unlikely scenarios. 

[GoColts8818]

7 hours ago, Four2itus said:

Yes. I was asking the question to get people to think. 

In fairness most aren’t bitting on this.  I think just about everyone would be shocked if he got fired mid-season.  It would take something like Meyer’s 91 campaign with no major injuries and that’s just not likely to happen.

[Boondoggle]

While I'm thinking about it I may lay a bet on Arthur Smith.  14/1 is real favorable for a guy who should be one of the first fired.  Only reason he's not a favorite is the owner's patience and overall good-natured tendencies, but I think he's in for a real ugly season in 2022.

[Yoshinator]

9 hours ago, Four2itus said:

When was the last time Irsay fired a coach mid-season?

Irsay is now 63 years old and we don't have a long-term franchise QB. Read point 3 of my comment again. 

[throwing BBZ]

 

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