Matt Ryan is durable, but nothing goes according to plan. This is the NFL, where the unexpected happens. There's a very good chance Foles will play at some point if we sign him for a year. Asking a 37 year old QB to stay healthy for 17 games plus the playoffs is a tall task. Our O-Line is probably weaker with this starting five than before as well and that's with no injuries.
There's two issues with Foles to me. 1.) If he plays for an extended period of time, he's not good enough as is, but not bad enough to tank like Sam would for us. So it would actually hurt our chances of getting a franchise QB, and we can't keep Matt Ryan forever, he's 37 now. 2.) Foles is just the latest in another of Reichs QBs that he wants on the Colts. I'm tired of it. People say he'll do well with him as he has familarity. So does that mean anyone he doesn't have familarity with will be even worse? That's a valid question. If Reich had familarity with Wentz and he did that bad, considering their relationship, is Reich going to be just as bad or worse with Matt Ryan?
Sorry to get off subject. Just trying to show that there's really no upside to the Foles signing unless you believe he'll do what he did with the Eagles for us.
I think regression is likely but don't anticipate it being significant.
The changes to the O-Line are probably for the worse rather than for the better (though this certainly isn't clear or certain), I think Hines will play more of a role overall on offense, and I don't think the loss of Doyle can be understated.
I also think the passing game should be better too though. I voted that efficiency will stay the same but I could actually see the efficiency increase even if the overall production decreases. Though it's not as if we weren't already efficient last season.
Read a few articles that have in one way or another suggested that our run efficiency at least, and possibly our rushing total or rushing average (JT 5.5, NH 4.9) take a step back.
The articles had different spins, but here most of the reasons given.
Offensive Line losses (Departure of OL starters Glow and Fisher).
Glow has always been a solid run blocker, and IIRC, our efficiency and/or success rate running right has been as good or better than running left.
The front runner to replace Glow now looks to be Pinter, who while a wild card, looked to have pretty good vertical punch.
While Fisher was pretty bad in pass pro, he was pretty darn good most games run blocking.
Pryor graded better than Fisher in pass pro, but not as effective in run blocking.
WR/TE losses (departure of Pascal and Doyle)
Doyle - While some were never impressed with Doyle as an offensive weapon, he was always a pretty darn good blocker
Woods and Ogletree - blocking is seen as weaknesses in both their games
Granson - also is suspect in the blocking space
Pascal - not much of a pass catching weapon, but like Doyle, very solid blocking
Pierce - didn't block much, but has great hands vs the press, and seems pretty "tough" or "physical". Doubt he's running boundary 9s all game, so this is an area to watch.
JT - is no longer going to surprise teams in 2022
Hines - perhaps becoming more of a receiver than runner. NH's efficiency actually improved last season even though his snaps went down. I could make a case that this could be a pro or a con.
Things that IMO, might offset things for the positive
Ryan - Should be better in short passing game, so perhaps Frank will call a more well rounded game plan that keeps DBs from cheating up
Nelson - returning to good health
Kelly - getting back on track after regressing the past few seasons
Addition of Lindsay, who is perhaps a better #2 RB option (rushing, not catching) than Hines