Colts' future not as bright as it seems

[horseshoeblue22]

Quantify that. How many of his fumbles, particularly the ones that were recovered by the defense, were someone else's fault?

I don't know the exact number, but I remember quite a few botched snaps from Jon Harrison and a couple botched handoffs to Richardson. Botched exchanges are always credited to the QB.

[wig]

I think a lot falls on the trade of a first round pick for Trich and Werner not really being very much above an average player to this point but you can also point out the missteps on building Luck a good online so far and then you have the defense that hasn't lived up to "building the monster" yet.

The 2012 draft was as easy of pickings I hope we shall see for years to come. Picking 1-2 at the top of the draft affords you higher probabilities of a starter. That 2013 draft was just short of awful and every GM has them. 2014 looks to be very solid and on paper, 2015 draft looks every bit as solid across the board as did the 2012 draft and we selected deep in this draft as opposed to the 2012 draft. Time will tell though on 2014-2015 though.

One thing is clear, after paying Luck topQB money, constazo top 3-5 LT money, perhaps TY top 5-10 WR money, Vonte his CB money, we are going to have to have more drafts like 2012 than the 2013 drafts no question about it.

People's expectations are simply way too high if that's their attitude. You can't simply turn over an entire roster immediately.

[ColtsFanMikeC]

What's your take on John Claytons article?

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/13013357/why-indianapolis-colts-future-bright-seems-nfl

 

"What's clear is the biological clock is ticking on the Colts, even though Luck is only 25 years old. It might not be now or never for Luck to get to his first Super Bowl, but the Colts could be heading down the path of five other franchises that have quality quarterbacks. Teams that don't hit on two or three starters in each draft class eventually suffer roster decay -- and that's the position in which the Colts currently find themselves"

 

Between draft and UDFA, Grigs is doing a very good job.  This article is stooooopid.

 

Here are the "starters" Grigson has found in each draft:

2012: Luck, Hilton, Fleener, Allen, Chapman (5)

2013: Vontae Davis, Khaled Holmes (2)

2014: Jack Mewhort, Jonathan Newsome (2)

2015: ?

When you consider Moncrief and Hugh Thorton as quality backups, Grigson's drafts haven't been nearly as bad as people would lead you to believe. Theres no reason to believe that "the biological clock is ticking" on this team, or that it will take a significant step backwards in the near future.

Grigson has built this team around a lot of vet FA additions, especially on defense. But the team still has a lot of young talent. Pagano has said in the past that they tend to draft offensive players because they value experience on defense and because the defensive schemes are much more complicated compared to the offensive schemes.

Quality rookies are harder to find when they are consistently picking in the 23-29 range as they have since 2013. Its even harder when you are trading picks for vets, and signing vet FAs to fill holes. Developing young talent really haven't been a priority here the last couple of years.

 

2012: Luck, Hilton, Fleener, Allen, Chapman -- 5 starters.  Plus Freeman (not a UDFA or draftee, but he was a unique FA and has started -- and Ballard was showing signs to be a starter before injury).

2013: Holmes, Werner, Thornton  -- 3 Starters.  Plus Montori Hughes, Cam Johnson, Jack Doyle, Boom Herron have all played significant roles.

2014: Mewhort and Harrison both saw time as starters last year.  Moncrief should see significantly more time this year, while Zach Kerr, Jonathan Newsome, Kelcey Quarles, Dewey McDonald, and Henoc Muamba all contributed quite a bit to our team last year.  Erik Swoope is turning heads.

2015: Dorsett is already turning heads, Anderson is already turning heads, Geathers is already turning heads, Duron Carter is turning heads, Josh Robinson is turning heads.

[NewColtsFan]

I haven't been able to take Jon Clayton seriously since I saw his ponytail.

 

 

I'm assuming you're kidding and know that Clayton doesn't have a ponytail.......

 

Without an emoticon, I can't tell....

[NewColtsFan]

I think a lot falls on the trade of a first round pick for Trich and Werner not really being very much above an average player to this point but you can also point out the missteps on building Luck a good online so far and then you have the defense that hasn't lived up to "building the monster" yet.

The 2012 draft was as easy of pickings I hope we shall see for years to come. Picking 1-2 at the top of the draft affords you higher probabilities of a starter. That 2013 draft was just short of awful and every GM has them. 2014 looks to be very solid and on paper, 2015 draft looks every bit as solid across the board as did the 2012 draft and we selected deep in this draft as opposed to the 2012 draft. Time will tell though on 2014-2015 though.

One thing is clear, after paying Luck topQB money, constazo top 3-5 LT money, perhaps TY top 5-10 WR money, Vonte his CB money, we are going to have to have more drafts like 2012 than the 2013 drafts no question about it.

 

 

I don't think we have to worry about Castanzo getting top 3-5 LT money.   He's good, but he's not that good.    He'll likely get top 8-10 LT money and we can afford that.     We can afford the money we're going to pay Hilton.   Vonte already got his deal, so he's factored in already.

 

But, overall, yes....   we're going to have less money for free agency in the future than we have had the last few years.   And we're going to have to do a better job in the draft.    No argument on that....

[NewEra]

I'm going to call nonsense on this one.

[Jules]

I am not even going to read it. As a fan the future is bright to me in the short term and I am going to enjoy this for a while.

[Superman]

But he doesn't turn it over at the same rate as Cutler or Sanchez.

 

In 2014 Cutler had 18 INTs and 6 Fumbles in 561 pass attempts, so he turned it over 4.45% of the his pass attempts (lumping all fumbles with pass attempts, if someone wants to figure out his fumble when he was scrambling be my guest.)

 

Luck had 22 TOs (16 INTs, 6 fumbles) in 616 pass attempts, so he turned it over 3.57% of his pass attempts.

 

That means that Cutler turns the ball over 25% more than Luck... that is a huge difference.

 

Sanchez is even worse he had 17 TOs (14/3) in 309 pass attempts, so he turned it over 5.5% of his pass attempts, 54% more than Luck.

 

So your premise that Luck is not elite because he turns it over at the same rate as Cutler and Sanchez is false.  It's ok if you don't think Luck is elite but if you're going to justify it, try to justify it with something within the realm of reality.

 

Wow. If Luck turned it over at the same rate as Sanchez, he'd have have 34 turnovers last season. Same rate as Cutler, 27 turnovers.

 

He had a four or five game stretch where he was turning the ball over like crazy. Everyone gave him heck for it, here and in the media. We're talking about him playing like that practically all season long. 

[cdgacoltsfan]

Turnover problems overrated?  You've got to be kidding.  12 interceptions in 6 playoff games.  That is a problem.

 

 

And I'm still not sure why you guys keep wanting to compare him to something Manning did 15 years ago.  Not sure of the relevance.

 

Turnover problems overrated?  You've got to be kidding.  12 interceptions in 6 playoff games.  That is a problem.

 

 

And I'm still not sure why you guys keep wanting to comparlucke him to something Manning did 15 years ago.  Not sure of the relevance.

Luck and the Colts 2.... Manning and the overrated Broncos 1

[gregr507]

Wow, peytonmanning18 sure derailed this thread. I think he needs to spend less time looking at boxscores and more time watching colts football, because he's made himself look foolish several (being kind) times in this thread with poorly formed, inaccurate opinions. Not to mention arguing like a gradeschooler... 

 

Anyway, I think Clayton made a mistake in choosing teams to compare us with. Mainly because the  panthers, bears, giants, falcons, and saints (they may be an exception, but brees came into new orleans as a veteran) do not have quarterbacks remotely near Luck's level, especially considering he has only been in the NFL for THREE YEARS and continues to consistently improve. He did make some valid (if not obvious) points, obviously we need to draft well in the future, as does every team. But I believe that Luck, like Manning, will have us in contention every year. True, it's unlikely we will be able to sign free agents of the caliber that we did this off season in the future, but how many teams can say that they will either? I think a considerable part of the reason why we were able to obtain multiple pro-bowl level veterans is BECAUSE we have Andrew Luck. Obviously that is not a sustainable solution, so yeah, draft well... not exactly a profound revelation from Clayton there.

[Hoosierdome93]

Crazy! Grigson has done a good job. Everyone has their opinion, but the team has improved every year since he came in. This Colts team has just gotten started. Our Defense will be a terror to other teams this year. Believe That!

[Deano1818]

Manning's third year stats have nothing to do with this argument but since you want to know.  

 

Manning had 15 interceptions and 1 fumble in his 3rd year.  7 less turnovers than Luck.

 

My initial post said that in order for Luck to become elite he needs to stop turning the ball over at a rate comparable to Mark Sanchez and Jay Cutler, I have no idea what that has to do with Manning.

Manning didnt get hit nearly as much as Luck is .... it matters, and contributes to the fumbles

[dudley dawson]

I stopped taking this seriously once Clayton compared Luck to Ryan.

[Gavin]

I stopped taking this seriously once Clayton compared Luck to Ryan.

Except Clayton was not comparing Luck to Ryan (Though comparing Luck to Ryan is in no way an insult...Just not an accurate comparison)...Both teams have had bad O Line play since there respective QB's have entered the league(The Falcons actually rushed for less yards a game then we did), Both teams are still converting over there defenses...Clayton was comparing teams...He brought up Ryan because he has been going through a similar situation, Ryans a very good QB who is capable of putting up elite pass numbers as shown by his yards passing the last 3 years all being over 4500 yards

[Malakai432]

Luck won't be elite until he stops turning the ball over at a Mark Sanchez/ Jay Cutler like rate

 

Don't you mean at a Peyton Manning like rate  ????????????? From a turnover perspective, Manning has thrown 25 INTs in the last two years matching Luck.  Don't forget about fumbles also, Luck may have more but Manning has LOST 8 fumbles over the last two years just as Luck has.  Luck is not elite yet, but neither was Manning going into his fourth year who had the leisure of playing on a team with phenomenal backs in Faulk and Edge, combined with a feasible OL.  Not many QBs are elite going into their 4th year, I also think that the vast amount of fumbles last year will turn out to be an anomaly.  Rodgers could be considered elite going into his fourth year, but he also sat for 3 years before starting.  Rodgers is going into his 11th year vs Lucks 4th year. 

 

In the end, cut down in the turnovers indeed and also perhaps just the darn team in general can also stop sucking against the Patriots.  If that happens, I'll be more than happy. 

 

With regards to the article Clayton does make some valid points.  Grigson needs to start nailing in the draft now and on in the future thus to avoid reliance on the FA market.  Kind of makes perfect sense.  Lucks going to be eating up a massive chunk of change coming up soon.  Not only will Luck be eating up a massive chunk of change, but so will other players.  If Vontae keeps playing at the pace he has, after 3 years he's going to command a truck load. 

[Carlos Danger]

I'm not sure what metric should be used to compare team success here.

I mean, every team with a big $$ qb has had huge holes on one side of the ball in recent memory. The only exception being NE (who cheat) and maybe the Manning-lead Broncos, who knew they only had a few years to win it when they signed his contract...

What will Seattle look like after Wilson's contract? Panthers? Look at GB's defense....

I don't see the point of this article, really. Of course Indy had to draft well to win... so does everybody else.

[FanFromtheWasteland]

Colts future is always bright because we are fans. If you are not hopefull every year then what is the point in watching?

[loudnproudcolt]

First off I think Grigson has been good in drafts, and if Clayton is focusing on the defensive side, then it is a little silly, considering how few defensive players we have drafted under Grigson. Now in a couple years, lets see how this year's crop works out, but I liked our draft this year on the defensive side. Also, Vontae may have had a few years under his belt, but Grigson stole him for a 2nd round pick in 2013, which made that draft year. Clayton says two to three players each year, and reality would be two and one as a good backup. 2012 was an A+, but all offensive. 2013, I count Vontae as the only starter, but Holmes could emerge, and I believe Thornton will at worst be a quality backup. 2014 without the first round pick was a great draft class. He hit on Mewhort, Montcrief, and Newsome. So three starters there. On the offensive side, we are stacked, and that is due to the draft.

 

Now as far as Luck, and his contract number, I just don't believe he is going to be getting 25M a year, as everyone is saying. First I think he will think of the team a little, but after looking at Cam's contract, and Wilson will be next, I believe Luck will be making about 22M a year, which will set a new high. Since is 5th year extension which will work out to around 17M a year gets thrown into the contract, he will count about 21.2M each year against the cap, depending on how it gets structured of course. Most expect the cap to be around 154M next year, and will continue going up. Based on next year then, he will be just over 13% of the cap. One thing I look at is a lot of the articles at Over the Cap, and the 13% of cap number is the line of demarcation they basically have for a franchise QB. Luck will not be over that, and as the contract progresses over the six years after he signs after this year, the cap number will go down each year. So why I can see some justification for some misses on the draft, overall I think we have done well, especially on the offensive side. Luck may get more than 22M, but 21 is about the number for elite QB's, and I don't see the number jumping to 25M for Luck next year. Plus I think he will think about the team.

[loudnproudcolt]

This is exactly right.  I didn't say Luck was as bad as Cutler and Sanchez, but he does turn the ball over at a rate that is comparable to those guys.  It's like there is no middle ground with Luck.  If you don't consider him elite, you just hate him.  Andrew Luck is a stud but he is not elite at this point.  Stop turning the ball over and then we can discuss it.  

Luck is not even close to Cutler or Sanchez. Luck is a leader, who has put the team on his back at times. Only a few QB's in the league can do that. I am willing to say he may not be elite, but for only three years in the league, considering his experience, he is ready to crack the title this year! Some people forget how young he is! Plus I think one thing you forget is look at what Luck has to do, as far as attempts is concerned, to get the Colts to the winner's circle. Over the past two years, Luck has thrown the ball 1243 times. You think Peyton Manning in his 2nd and third year threw the ball that much? I don't thing an interception ratio of 2 to 3 percent is too bad, considering the risk he has had to take in order to cover up some short comings the last few years. Also, throw the interceptions out the first year, and just look at the team around him. He has been incredible.

[Hoosierdome93]

He does make make valid points.  The Colts need to be working on replacing 1. The aging vets we are signing now and 2. the normal attrition a team will see where some draft picks just don't cut it.  But I don't think the Colts are really any worse off that most teams.

 

The reality is the clock is always ticking for every team.  You are getting better or you are getting worse.  Just a reality.  It is almost impossible to just stay where you are from year to year.  

 

All things considered I will take the problems that the Colts have.  The next couple of years should be really fun and during that time Grigson will still be wheeling and dealing to 1. get quality in the draft and 2. get quality vets to fill needs that are cost effective.

 

I think it's a pretty good plan.

Most of the older vets we have only have 1 or 2 year contracts. How hard is it to keep that trend and get the next youngest ageing vet for a 1 or 2 year deal and the right price.. I agree! I'll take that problem too.

 

I believe we have been building a dynasty.

[Chucklez]

Luck won't be elite until he stops turning the ball over at a Mark Sanchez/ Jay Cutler like rate

Last 3 years stats for each player.

Luck    Att     Int      Att / Int    Fum - Lost

2012    627     18       34.8               5

2013    570      9        63.3               2

2014    616     16       38.5               6

 

Cutler

2012    434    14        31                  4

2013    355    12        29.5               3

2014    561    18        31.1               6

 

Sanchez

2010    507    13        39                  1

2011    543    18        30.1               8

2012    453    18        25.1               8

If you take Lucks LOWEST attempts in his first three seasons, it is still higher than any of the last full three years by either Cutler or Sanchez. Luck has been the single reason that our team hasnt flopped like the Jets or Bears have in recent years. AND the Bears have Matt Forte and the Jets always focussed a lot on the running game. Yet Sanchez and Cutler still turned the ball over so much. 

 

Sure Luck threw a lot of INT's, but if you look at this att / int his WORST year (his freaking rookie year btw) is still better than 5 of the 6 the other two guys have between them. Luck has been running for his life and making amazing plays behind one of the most suspect O lines without a running game and we have still won 11 games all three years. (Oh a by the way the Jets and Bears have had some much much much better defences than us as well).

The Jets went 11 - 5, 8 - 8 and then 6 - 10 with Sanchez... 

 

The Bears went 6 - 10, 8-8 and then 4 - 12.....

 

Yeah you're right Luck isnt Elite.....   

 

[FanFromtheWasteland]

Most of the older vets we have only have 1 or 2 year contracts. How hard is it to keep that trend and get the next youngest ageing vet for a 1 or 2 year deal and the right price.. I agree! I'll take that problem too.

I believe we have been building a dynasty.

I was thinking the same exact thing.

[ColtsBlueFL]

I haven't been able to take Jon Clayton seriously since I saw his ponytail.

 

LOL.  Just so no one takes you seriously, here's the scoop on the 'Ponytail' -

 

"ESPN has this thing called Glowpoint. It’s a camera that’s in my house so that I don’t have to go down to a studio and the company doesn’t have to pay for the satellite. When you see me on camera, it’s the same angle all the time. When Dan Patrick left the network, he started the rumor that I have a ponytail that you can’t see. Obviously I don’t have enough hair on the top of my head to make a ponytail. But if you go on Twitter, it’s a constant question: Do you have a ponytail?"

 

Thus the ESPN commercial with Clayton and his ponytail listening to Slayer.  Then Pete Carrol photobombs Clayton, and ESPN responds!!

 

 

. @PeteCarroll @ClaytonESPN - "Hey Pete, I'm done with my segment!" http://t.co/hJNLtrxJWZ pic.twitter.com/YTsLwPttG2

— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL)

March 24, 2015

[ColtRider]

Elite QBs are judged on wins, IMO. Andrew Luck wins. Period. Escalated the Colts each and every year in the last three consecutive seasons to the AFCCG. Although three 11-5 straight seasons may be a bit misleading with escalation, it's the Playoffs that count. He's achieved that status as an elite leader. Oh, yeah, he just happens to be the QB. "Elite"? "QB"? Absolutely no problem with merging those two words together while defining one Andrew Luck!

[Bleedin Blue]

I think if any teams have to worry about time it's the Patriots and Broncos...both of these teams represent the only real obstacles to the Colts at the moment and both are about to see their franchise quarterbacks hit 40. Once you take the head off the snake...

I also think Grigson is fully aware of the repercussions of the contracts next year. That's exactly why he was so active in free agency this year. Super Bowl or bust then reload through the draft for another run at it.

[ColtStrong]

What's your take on John Claytons article?

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/13013357/why-indianapolis-colts-future-bright-seems-nfl

 

"What's clear is the biological clock is ticking on the Colts, even though Luck is only 25 years old. It might not be now or never for Luck to get to his first Super Bowl, but the Colts could be heading down the path of five other franchises that have quality quarterbacks. Teams that don't hit on two or three starters in each draft class eventually suffer roster decay -- and that's the position in which the Colts currently find themselves"

nonsense. Even though I respect Clayton, he's suffering from brain decay. Just because these guys get paid doesn't make them right. It's click-bait. Guess what, you probably clicked.

[ColtStrong]

Last 3 years stats for each player.

Luck    Att     Int      Att / Int    Fum - Lost

2012    627     18       34.8               5

2013    570      9        63.3               2

2014    616     16       38.5               6

 

Cutler

2012    434    14        31                  4

2013    355    12        29.5               3

2014    561    18        31.1               6

 

Sanchez

2010    507    13        39                  1

2011    543    18        30.1               8

2012    453    18        25.1               8

If you take Lucks LOWEST attempts in his first three seasons, it is still higher than any of the last full three years by either Cutler or Sanchez. Luck has been the single reason that our team hasnt flopped like the Jets or Bears have in recent years. AND the Bears have Matt Forte and the Jets always focussed a lot on the running game. Yet Sanchez and Cutler still turned the ball over so much. 

 

Sure Luck threw a lot of INT's, but if you look at this att / int his WORST year (his freaking rookie year btw) is still better than 5 of the 6 the other two guys have between them. Luck has been running for his life and making amazing plays behind one of the most suspect O lines without a running game and we have still won 11 games all three years. (Oh a by the way the Jets and Bears have had some much much much better defences than us as well).

The Jets went 11 - 5, 8 - 8 and then 6 - 10 with Sanchez... 

 

The Bears went 6 - 10, 8-8 and then 4 - 12.....

 

Yeah you're right Luck isnt Elite.....   

 

You speak the truth. PM18 is going to compare Luck to Cutler and Sanchez? I needed a good laugh anyway.

[SOMDColtsfan]

3 years into a 5 year plan? The Colts are about to peak yes but that's THE PLAN! And has been! There will be roster turnover I`m sure but I believe Grigson is ahead of all that. No worries, the Colts are good..

[ColtStrong]

3 years into a 5 year plan? The Colts are about to peak yes but that's THE PLAN! And has been! There will be roster turnover I`m sure but I believe Grigson is ahead of all that. No worries, the Colts are good..

I thought it was 4 yrs. Anyway, I get your drift. I'm not worried. There's A LOT of teams worried about the SHOE this year. Write it down, Colts win the Super Bowl. Not worried at all. We're the most complete team in the NFL.

[Crunked]

I am filing this under "Vague but true" for ole Johnny C. Long term for reasons of cap you need more draft picks playing at starter level than free agents....cause once Luck and co. hit their payday your money becomes more limited.....but as many have pointed out, you can argue for and against Clayton's take on this story.

[amfootball]

Wow. If Luck turned it over at the same rate as Sanchez, he'd have have 34 turnovers last season. Same rate as Cutler, 27 turnovers.

 

He had a four or five game stretch where he was turning the ball over like crazy. Everyone gave him heck for it, here and in the media. We're talking about him playing like that practically all season long. 

Hey there,

 

I noticed in the article that Clayton referenced Atlanta as a team that the Colts could mirror if they don't hit on their drafts. I remember you mentioning Atlanta to me more than once as a team you did not want to see the Colts become. So kudos to you for pretty much nailing that analogy. My question to you is do you see the Colts going down the same path as Atlanta at this point? I realize this draft class is big for the team given Luck's looming pay day but what do you think needs to happen if anything to keep this team pointed in the right direction? Are there key guys in this draft that have to become impact players right away?

[Valpo2004]

This is why I always shake my head when people label the o-line as terrible. Donald Brown had a high YPC average his last year here. Vick Ballard was doing pretty well before his first injury.

Trent has held our run game hostage the last two years, not the play of our offensive lineman. You put a back, any back not named Trent, into our system and they have produced. With Gore, Herron and Robinson, this year our run game will be much more effective.

 

I agree with you, our O-line while not elite by any stretch is way under rated by many in here.  At this point it is actually about average, if not then just a little bit below.  Certainly not terrible or one of the worst in the league.  

[Superman]

Hey there,

 

I noticed in the article that Clayton referenced Atlanta as a team that the Colts could mirror if they don't hit on their drafts. I remember you mentioning Atlanta to me more than once as a team you did not want to see the Colts become. So kudos to you for pretty much nailing that analogy. My question to you is do you see the Colts going down the same path as Atlanta at this point? I realize this draft class is big for the team given Luck's looming pay day but what do you think needs to happen if anything to keep this team pointed in the right direction? Are there key guys in this draft that have to become impact players right away?

 

I think Pagano is a better coach than Mike Smith. And I think we're better in the trenches than Atlanta was the last two years, especially in pass protection and pass rush. We have a better secondary. And while Matt Ryan is/was better at some things than Luck at this point, Luck is the superior playmaker. 

 

The Falcons haven't drafted well, just two players from the 2011 draft, when they gave up a bunch to get Julio Jones. They haven't really gotten anything out of their 2012 draft, and their 2013 draft wasn't great either. No immediate difference makers in 2014. Add in a ton of injuries, and that helps to explain why they've only put up 10 combined wins in the last two seasons, after 13 wins in 2012. Two bad drafts in a row, some bad luck, and a coaching staff that didn't seem to have anything/anyone special on it.

 

I say all of this with the benefit of hindsight. I don't think anyone saw the Falcons falling apart until it started happening. After 2012, I think they were expected to be a major player for a long time. So while we're in it, it's hard to say whether the Colts are on the same trajectory. I don't think so; the 2013 draft wasn't great for the Colts, but I think we got three promising guys from 2014. And with some of the depth we had and some nice FA signings, I think we patched a lot of holes before the draft came around. So I don't think anyone from 2015 needs to have an impact right away, even though I think any of our first five or six picks has the potential to play a role, if necessary.

 

The key is to draft well, and to develop youth quickly. That's really all you can do. Luck is going to get paid, as are a few other young guys. That's the cost of doing business. You don't complain about paying your best young players, you just have to maximize your opportunities everywhere else. That's what the Falcons failed to do, overall. Over the next couple seasons, we'll learn a lot about Pagano and Grigson. I hope they prove to be better than Smith and Dimitroff.

[ColtRider]

I think Pagano is a better coach than Mike Smith. And I think we're better in the trenches than Atlanta was the last two years, especially in pass protection and pass rush. We have a better secondary. And while Matt Ryan is/was better at some things than Luck at this point, Luck is the superior playmaker. 

 

The Falcons haven't drafted well, just two players from the 2011 draft, when they gave up a bunch to get Julio Jones. They haven't really gotten anything out of their 2012 draft, and their 2013 draft wasn't great either. No immediate difference makers in 2014. Add in a ton of injuries, and that helps to explain why they've only put up 10 combined wins in the last two seasons, after 13 wins in 2012. Two bad drafts in a row, some bad luck, and a coaching staff that didn't seem to have anything/anyone special on it.

 

I say all of this with the benefit of hindsight. I don't think anyone saw the Falcons falling apart until it started happening. After 2012, I think they were expected to be a major player for a long time. So while we're in it, it's hard to say whether the Colts are on the same trajectory. I don't think so; the 2013 draft wasn't great for the Colts, but I think we got three promising guys from 2014. And with some of the depth we had and some nice FA signings, I think we patched a lot of holes before the draft came around. So I don't think anyone from 2015 needs to have an impact right away, even though I think any of our first five or six picks has the potential to play a role, if necessary.

 

The key is to draft well, and to develop youth quickly. That's really all you can do. Luck is going to get paid, as are a few other young guys. That's the cost of doing business. You don't complain about paying your best young players, you just have to maximize your opportunities everywhere else. That's what the Falcons failed to do, overall. Over the next couple seasons, we'll learn a lot about Pagano and Grigson. I hope they prove to be better than Smith and Dimitroff.

"Over the next couple seasons, we'll learn a lot about Pagano and Grigson."

First of all, nice post! Second, I'm not worried at all concerning the two of them. They've done nothing but improve the Colts in their short tenure(s) in Indianapolis. No reason to believe it will not continue.

[Superman]

"Over the next couple seasons, we'll learn a lot about Pagano and Grigson."

First of all, nice post! Second, I'm not worried at all concerning the two of them. They've done nothing but improve the Colts in their short tenure(s) in Indianapolis. No reason to believe it will not continue.

 

I wouldn't say I'm concerned. But I said a couple months ago, they were obviously the right guys for the rebuild, but it's possible that they aren't the right guys for the long term. Not saying that's how I feel about them, but they aren't proven in that regard. This year is a big deal for both of them. I think the personnel staff has had a pretty good offseason, even if it's not what I expected them to do. Now the coaching staff is on the clock.

 

I hope they continue to prove themselves capable. We'll see how it works out.

[amfootball]

I think Pagano is a better coach than Mike Smith. And I think we're better in the trenches than Atlanta was the last two years, especially in pass protection and pass rush. We have a better secondary. And while Matt Ryan is/was better at some things than Luck at this point, Luck is the superior playmaker. 

 

The Falcons haven't drafted well, just two players from the 2011 draft, when they gave up a bunch to get Julio Jones. They haven't really gotten anything out of their 2012 draft, and their 2013 draft wasn't great either. No immediate difference makers in 2014. Add in a ton of injuries, and that helps to explain why they've only put up 10 combined wins in the last two seasons, after 13 wins in 2012. Two bad drafts in a row, some bad luck, and a coaching staff that didn't seem to have anything/anyone special on it.

 

I say all of this with the benefit of hindsight. I don't think anyone saw the Falcons falling apart until it started happening. After 2012, I think they were expected to be a major player for a long time. So while we're in it, it's hard to say whether the Colts are on the same trajectory. I don't think so; the 2013 draft wasn't great for the Colts, but I think we got three promising guys from 2014. And with some of the depth we had and some nice FA signings, I think we patched a lot of holes before the draft came around. So I don't think anyone from 2015 needs to have an impact right away, even though I think any of our first five or six picks has the potential to play a role, if necessary.

 

The key is to draft well, and to develop youth quickly. That's really all you can do. Luck is going to get paid, as are a few other young guys. That's the cost of doing business. You don't complain about paying your best young players, you just have to maximize your opportunities everywhere else. That's what the Falcons failed to do, overall. Over the next couple seasons, we'll learn a lot about Pagano and Grigson. I hope they prove to be better than Smith and Dimitroff.

I agree with this except for Pagano and Grigson. I think the jury is still out on both of them with this season obviously being a big proving ground. Grigson really did not do what was expected in the draft so we will see how it pans out. But for sure Luck is better than Ryan.

 

I think what may be a little unfair or perhaps unrealistic is the feeling that this should be the Colts year given Denver is in rebuild mode with Manning and his ability to perform up the air and then the Pats with their entire secondary gone. I get the expectation in one way given how close the Colts were last year and the way the AFC is shaping up this season but there seems to be mounting pressure. That can be a good thing as well. We will see how the coaching staff and players handle it.

[Superman]

I agree with this except for Pagano and Grigson. I think the jury is still out on both of them with this season obviously being a big proving ground. Grigson really did not do what was expected in the draft so we will see how it pans out. But for sure Luck is better than Ryan.

 

I think what may be a little unfair or perhaps unrealistic is the feeling that this should be the Colts year given Denver is in rebuild mode with Manning and his ability to perform up the air and then the Pats with their entire secondary gone. I get the expectation in one way given how close the Colts were last year and the way the AFC is shaping up this season but there seems to be mounting pressure. That can be a good thing as well. We will see how the coaching staff and players handle it.

 

I disagree with the bolded. Grigson didn't do what the general public expected him to do, particularly in the first round. I expected him to add good players throughout the draft, and while we won't know for sure, I feel like he did a pretty good job. 

 

I'm pretty much saying that the success of the team in the short term hinges on how well Grigson and Pagano do their jobs, and that I hope they're better in this next phase than were Dimitroff and Smith. In 4-6 months, we'll have a lot more to talk about.

[Horse Shoe Heaven]

Honestly I don't care what the article says I think we are right on tract to get better!

[amfootball]

I disagree with the bolded. Grigson didn't do what the general public expected him to do, particularly in the first round. I expected him to add good players throughout the draft, and while we won't know for sure, I feel like he did a pretty good job. 

 

I'm pretty much saying that the success of the team in the short term hinges on how well Grigson and Pagano do their jobs, and that I hope they're better in this next phase than were Dimitroff and Smith. In 4-6 months, we'll have a lot more to talk about.

Yes, I meant the public. He will be ultimately judged on how well the class does over the next few seasons.

 

BTW, has there ever been more pressure on a #1 pick than Dorsett other than Manning and Luck of course.

[Superman]

Yes, I meant the public. He will be ultimately judged on how well the class does over the next few seasons.

 

BTW, has there ever been more pressure on a #1 pick than Dorsett other than Manning and Luck of course.

 

There's no extraordinary pressure on Dorsett. He's just like every other late first rounder, despite all the nonsense from people around here.