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Colts have the 15th pick in the draft. (MERGE)


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5 hours ago, Stephen said:

Only if he is Revis  day 1. I feel like rookie wrs have a bigger impact  than rookie corners

 

 You have 10,500 posts but are worried how good a rookie is for what is likely a 3rd place team. Pure nonsense. There is no rush to develop our talent. 

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22 hours ago, richard pallo said:

TRADE IDEA.  I just read where Mark Davis has given new GM Tom Telesco permission to move up in the draft for a quarterback if it makes sense.  They are sitting at pick 13.  We know Ballard was trying to sign Danielle Hunter to a big contract and lost out.  Obviously still trying for that premium ER.  How about Ballard does a trade similar to the Buckner trade.  Offer our pick 15 to the Raiders for Max Crosby.  According to the draft charts our pick coupled with pick 13 results in 2200 points which coincidentally is the equivalent to pick 3 value wise.  They could always add an extra pick or so if need be to trade up. They might not have to go all the way up to 3 either.  I also wouldn’t have a problem including Dayo or Kwity as part of the trade to give them a player to replace Crosby.  I would think a trade like this would be agreed to in advance of the draft and would only go down if the quarterback they wanted was there.  If they did go to three and they liked a couple then I would think it could be done before the draft.  The big question is would the Raiders part with Crosby to get the franchise quarterback they want.  I could see this is a win win if they really want to get a quarterback this year.  Knowing how Ballard tried for the veteran Hunter I could see him at least having the conversation with Telesco. Maybe they say no or maybe they say let us think about it.  If Telesco wants to bring in his own quarterback this is the perfect time for him.  Just a thought on my part two weeks before the draft.  I believe we traded for Buckner before the draft so having a conversation with Telesco now makes sense to me.  If Ballard wants to make a splash move this trade proposal would certainly qualify and fill a major need as well.  Like I said two weeks to go to the draft.  Seems like forever.

Not a bad idea. I had a similar idea of the Colts trying to pry Micah Parson from Dallas since they seem to be struggling with keeping their roster and I've heard their analysts throw potentially trading one of their stars that will soon need a new contract(Parsons, Lamb) for high picks as an option to rebuild and refresh the roster. Crosby is of similar mold and quality as a pass-rusher. I am not sure I personally would do it, but I can absolutely see Ballard doing something like this... 

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18 hours ago, Dobbinblitz said:

 The other scenario that may benefit the Colts at #15 is if a team wants to take a shot at drafting the 5th QB inside the top 15 such as Bo Nix or Penix Jr.

That's the "X-factor".

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From the Horseshoe Huddle on the Colts potentially drafting a Cornerback in round one ( A case against using the first pick on a CB - from an early impact standpoint):

 

"After impressive performances last season, largely from Jones and Flowers, inserting a first-round pick into the lineup ahead of these two may not create as major of a difference as fans would expect in year one."

 

Three Colts performed better than the average first round draft pick in Yards After Catch. The first round average was 4.11.  Jones was 1.84, flowers 2.64, and Brents 2.78. Yards per coverage snap was another strong area for the Colts Young Cornerbacks. Jones also beat the first round cornerback average for Reception Percentage (Avg. 60.63%) Jones came in at 54.4%

 

"If Jones can sustain his performance next season while allowing two or three fewer touchdowns and getting his hands on one or two interceptions, that would end up being a season that would rival anything you could expect from a rookie cornerback, even a first-rounder."

 

Ballard on Jones "I thought Jones played really good football last year and did it against some very talented wideouts and never once backed down."

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On 4/10/2024 at 7:16 PM, krunk said:
On 4/9/2024 at 11:02 AM, richard pallo said:

I think one of Nabers or Bowers will be on the board when we pick

I think the thing to watch is how teams draft between the LT's and WR's. There are two premiere LT's and two premiere WR's who would go in the top 4 if not for the value associated to qb position. I would say based purely on grades, Harrsion, Nabors, Alt and the guy from Penn State would  grade out better than even Williams.  He is going #1 because he is a qb.  To me, I would draft a LT before I would draft at WR if i was in the top 5. It will be interesting to see how teams feel about the LT and WR position as it relates to value in the NFL. Thats what I will be watching. I think even Polian said it is Qb, LT and DE in that order in terms of importance to the team

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19 minutes ago, Dobbinblitz said:

From the Horseshoe Huddle on the Colts potentially drafting a Cornerback in round one ( A case against using the first pick on a CB - from an early impact standpoint):

 

"After impressive performances last season, largely from Jones and Flowers, inserting a first-round pick into the lineup ahead of these two may not create as major of a difference as fans would expect in year one."

 

Three Colts performed better than the average first round draft pick in Yards After Catch. The first round average was 4.11.  Jones was 1.84, flowers 2.64, and Brents 2.78. Yards per coverage snap was another strong area for the Colts Young Cornerbacks. Jones also beat the first round cornerback average for Reception Percentage (Avg. 60.63%) Jones came in at 54.4%

 

"If Jones can sustain his performance next season while allowing two or three fewer touchdowns and getting his hands on one or two interceptions, that would end up being a season that would rival anything you could expect from a rookie cornerback, even a first-rounder."

 

Ballard on Jones "I thought Jones played really good football last year and did it against some very talented wideouts and never once backed down."

It is also tough to grade these corners based on injuries and level of qbing they played last year.  I am not at all comfortable going into next season with  this corner talent. I am really leaning towards corner as our 1st pick as it will also hopefully expand what the D can do other than playing zone all the time

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31 minutes ago, Dobbinblitz said:

From the Horseshoe Huddle on the Colts potentially drafting a Cornerback in round one ( A case against using the first pick on a CB - from an early impact standpoint):

 

"After impressive performances last season, largely from Jones and Flowers, inserting a first-round pick into the lineup ahead of these two may not create as major of a difference as fans would expect in year one."

 

Three Colts performed better than the average first round draft pick in Yards After Catch. The first round average was 4.11.  Jones was 1.84, flowers 2.64, and Brents 2.78. Yards per coverage snap was another strong area for the Colts Young Cornerbacks. Jones also beat the first round cornerback average for Reception Percentage (Avg. 60.63%) Jones came in at 54.4%

 

"If Jones can sustain his performance next season while allowing two or three fewer touchdowns and getting his hands on one or two interceptions, that would end up being a season that would rival anything you could expect from a rookie cornerback, even a first-rounder."

 

Ballard on Jones "I thought Jones played really good football last year and did it against some very talented wideouts and never once backed down."

I would love Mitchell but i bet he would be gone. If he turned out, he could give the D a lot of flexibility in being able to be more diverse.

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https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/texans-best-wr-trio-nfl-2024-draft-stefon-diggs-nico-collins/e2df40c21689db34a714c9c0

 

Colts ranked 11th in top 3 wr's in this article.

 

All of opinion, but thought it was interesting. Have to go back and look at the rest of list to see how accurate I think it is.

 

 

Either way, a 4th guy should be in the cards at some point in 2 weeks.

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4 hours ago, stitches said:

Not a bad idea. I had a similar idea of the Colts trying to pry Micah Parson from Dallas since they seem to be struggling with keeping their roster and I've heard their analysts throw potentially trading one of their stars that will soon need a new contract(Parsons, Lamb) for high picks as an option to rebuild and refresh the roster. Crosby is of similar mold and quality as a pass-rusher. I am not sure I personally would do it, but I can absolutely see Ballard doing something like this... 

Watch Parson play in play off games when teams run at him. He is very ineffective and I think over rated. As a pass rusher running free, he is elite. As an all around player, I find me wanting more

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On 4/11/2024 at 12:13 PM, krunk said:

If we can come out of Rd 1 with Bowers I think that's a very good thing.  Then we can spend another premium pick on a WR in Rd 2 to get double explosive. Or trade back or stay put with that 2nd rounder, take a CB, pickup a WR in Rd 3 since the WR depth in this draft is strong and devote the rest to beefing up the D even more.

To me if the Colts are thinking defense, they  probably have  3 players on their mind at 15. I would say Turner, Verse and  Mitchell . I think Terrion's 4.5 would remove him from their board at 15, so you have the 2 pass rushers and Mitchell. I think in order to get one of those 3 guys, you have to get into the top 10. Mitchell ran a 4.3 and killed it at senior bowl, which the Colts love. Turner I think maybe a top 8 pick as he is the elite pass rusher. If Verse and Mitchell make it out of the top 10,  I don't think they will last long.   I believe the Colts are going to have to trade up this year if they want a chance at a true playmaker on defense. I  think after these 4 defensive players, there is quite a drop off. Just wondering what other people think on where they see these guys getting drafted? I don't see any of these 3 getting to 15.

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3 minutes ago, w87r said:

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/texans-best-wr-trio-nfl-2024-draft-stefon-diggs-nico-collins/e2df40c21689db34a714c9c0

 

Colts ranked 11th in top 3 wr's in this article.

 

All of opinion, but thought it was interesting. Have to go back and look at the rest of list to see how accurate I think it is.

 

 

Either way, a 4th guy should be in the cards at some point in 2 weeks.

 

It's a statistical analysis.

 

Quote

The trio of Diggs, Collins and Dell ranked No. 1 in total receiving yards and average AV player rank and finished third in average AV.

...

Additionally, the data is also solely reliant on 2023 production, meaning players who were injured throughout the 2023 season (like Justin Jefferson, Mike Williams and Tee Higgins) were docked considerably.

 

 

So, as it applies to the Texans, unless someone expects those three to produce the same way they did last season, their receiving yards and average rank will likely be different.

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12 hours ago, Stephen said:

Only if he is Revis  day 1. I feel like rookie wrs have a bigger impact  than rookie corners

Yeah, we would probably be taking the fourth WR though, so maybe Thomas from LSU. Would he be more impactful than the second best CB? I don’t know. Tough call. 

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3 hours ago, Moosejawcolt said:

I think the thing to watch is how teams draft between the LT's and WR's. There are two premiere LT's and two premiere WR's who would go in the top 4 if not for the value associated to qb position. I would say based purely on grades, Harrsion, Nabors, Alt and the guy from Penn State would  grade out better than even Williams.  He is going #1 because he is a qb.  To me, I would draft a LT before I would draft at WR if i was in the top 5. It will be interesting to see how teams feel about the LT and WR position as it relates to value in the NFL. Thats what I will be watching. I think even Polian said it is Qb, LT and DE in that order in terms of importance to the team

All well and good but we have our LT and he is young.  If you have a top 5 pick and you have your quarterback then it could be LT or WR or ER.  If you don’t have a quarterback then you better draft one.

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1 hour ago, Moosejawcolt said:

To me if the Colts are thinking defense, they  probably have  3 players on their mind at 15. I would say Turner, Verse and  Mitchell . I think Terrion's 4.5 would remove him from their board at 15, so you have the 2 pass rushers and Mitchell. I think in order to get one of those 3 guys, you have to get into the top 10. Mitchell ran a 4.3 and killed it at senior bowl, which the Colts love. Turner I think maybe a top 8 pick as he is the elite pass rusher. If Verse and Mitchell make it out of the top 10,  I don't think they will last long.   I believe the Colts are going to have to trade up this year if they want a chance at a true playmaker on defense. I  think after these 4 defensive players, there is quite a drop off. Just wondering what other people think on where they see these guys getting drafted? I don't see any of these 3 getting to 15.

I'm not sure over an 8 yr span if I've ever seen Ballard select a corner in RD 1. His corners are always Rd 2 or below that. I still maintain it will be an offensive player. And hopefully it's Bowers at 15 so we still have room to take a WR and CB between Rd 2 and 3. I haven't calculated what things look like if we trade up 5 spots. If it is defense at 15 I think it will likely be somebody who can push the pocket and edge rush. Especially since Q. Paye fifth year is uncertain.

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1 hour ago, w87r said:

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/texans-best-wr-trio-nfl-2024-draft-stefon-diggs-nico-collins/e2df40c21689db34a714c9c0

 

Colts ranked 11th in top 3 wr's in this article.

 

All of opinion, but thought it was interesting. Have to go back and look at the rest of list to see how accurate I think it is.

 

 

Either way, a 4th guy should be in the cards at some point in 2 weeks.

11th ranked with Gardner Minshew at quarterback and a rookie slot receiver.  Wow!  That’s darn impressive.  Bring on AR.

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21 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

Imo we have three elite players in Buckner, Nelson and Taylor.  They have proven themselves.  The rest of the starters which are all being brought back are good to very good.  Picking in the first 15 gives the Colts the best chance to add another potential elite player.  You trade back into the 20’s you probably wind up with good like Paye at 21.  Imo Ballard needs to stay at 15 or move up not back.  Try for elite.  Odds are more than likely pick 46 is good not elite.  We have plenty of good right now.  I hope Ballard tries to get a potential difference maker somewhere in the first 15 picks.  I think this is what he is going to do.  I think he really likes the current team.  That’s why he brought them all back.  I can see him trading up in the 1st round now for the 1st time.   Certainly staying at 15 and not trading back.  No more need for multiple arrows trying to hit the target.  Move up and get a closer shot to a bullseye.  That’s what I’m hoping for.


I could see a trade back IF we end up picking a WR.  Talent is insane this year to where there will be elite guys from all over the place at the position.  But I’m also fine taking a WR or Bowers at 15 too

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54 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

Imo we have three elite players in Buckner, Nelson and Taylor.  They have proven themselves.  The rest of the starters which are all being brought back are good to very good.  Picking in the first 15 gives the Colts the best chance to add another potential elite player.  You trade back into the 20’s you probably wind up with good like Paye at 21.  Imo Ballard needs to stay at 15 or move up not back.  Try for elite.  Odds are more than likely pick 46 is good not elite.  We have plenty of good right now.  I hope Ballard tries to get a potential difference maker somewhere in the first 15 picks.  I think this is what he is going to do.  I think he really likes the current team.  That’s why he brought them all back.  I can see him trading up in the 1st round now for the 1st time.   Certainly staying at 15 and not trading back.  No more need for multiple arrows trying to hit the target.  Move up and get a closer shot to a bullseye.  That’s what I’m hoping for.

 

   BINGO !!!

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1 hour ago, richard pallo said:

Imo we have three elite players in Buckner, Nelson and Taylor.  They have proven themselves.  The rest of the starters which are all being brought back are good to very good.  Picking in the first 15 gives the Colts the best chance to add another potential elite player.  You trade back into the 20’s you probably wind up with good like Paye at 21.  Imo Ballard needs to stay at 15 or move up not back.  Try for elite.  Odds are more than likely pick 46 is good not elite.  We have plenty of good right now.  I hope Ballard tries to get a potential difference maker somewhere in the first 15 picks.  I think this is what he is going to do.  I think he really likes the current team.  That’s why he brought them all back.  I can see him trading up in the 1st round now for the 1st time.   Certainly staying at 15 and not trading back.  No more need for multiple arrows trying to hit the target.  Move up and get a closer shot to a bullseye.  That’s what I’m hoping for.

I think a trade up is a dream scenario unless there is a guy he really wants.   I think he stays put at 15 but I wouldn't be surprised if he trades down.  I think if he trades down for picks next year he and Irsay knows he is coming back next year. A trade up would lead me to believe his job is on the line

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1 hour ago, Nate! said:


I could see a trade back IF we end up picking a WR.  Talent is insane this year to where there will be elite guys from all over the place at the position.  But I’m also fine taking a WR or Bowers at 15 too

I’ve done numerous mock drafts on PFN to where I was able to trade down with Tampa at 26 and get their 2nd and 2025 1st. Then I would select AD Mitchell each time at 26. 

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1 hour ago, BProland85 said:

I’ve done numerous mock drafts on PFN to where I was able to trade down with Tampa at 26 and get their 2nd and 2025 1st. Then I would select AD Mitchell each time at 26. 

Wow. Take that trade anytime!

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3 hours ago, richard pallo said:

Imo we have three elite players in Buckner, Nelson and Taylor.  They have proven themselves.  The rest of the starters which are all being brought back are good to very good.  Picking in the first 15 gives the Colts the best chance to add another potential elite player.  You trade back into the 20’s you probably wind up with good like Paye at 21.  Imo Ballard needs to stay at 15 or move up not back.  Try for elite.  Odds are more than likely pick 46 is good not elite.  We have plenty of good right now.  I hope Ballard tries to get a potential difference maker somewhere in the first 15 picks.  I think this is what he is going to do.  I think he really likes the current team.  That’s why he brought them all back.  I can see him trading up in the 1st round now for the 1st time.   Certainly staying at 15 and not trading back.  No more need for multiple arrows trying to hit the target.  Move up and get a closer shot to a bullseye.  That’s what I’m hoping for.

I think we have 4 with Rainmann as he was was the 8th ranked Tackle in the league in just his second season, I think we have seen enough already to know he is going to be a cornerstone for years to come barring injury.

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1 hour ago, BProland85 said:

I’ve done numerous mock drafts on PFN to where I was able to trade down with Tampa at 26 and get their 2nd and 2025 1st. Then I would select AD Mitchell each time at 26. 


One if the many problems with mick draft simulators is this….   
 

A proposed trade down from 15 to 26, and the simulator gives you a 2nd this year and a FIRST next year?!?!?    That isn’t the least bit realistic.   It’s not even clear to me that you get a 2 only.  You might not.  You might only get a 3.   But you’d never, ever also get a future first the following year.  The 2 alone was the most you’d get.  
 

The people who program these mock simulators are terrible at trade compensation offers.  They are rarely realistic.  This is one of the worst I’ve ever seen.  Sorry, not blaming you.  Just trying to offer context to the issue. 

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42 minutes ago, holeymoley99 said:

I think we have 4 with Rainmann as he was was the 8th ranked Tackle in the league in just his second season, I think we have seen enough already to know he is going to be a cornerstone for years to come barring injury.

I hope you’re right.  I didn’t include him because he only had the one year of elite play.  The elite players do it for multiple years so let’s hope he keeps it up.

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1 hour ago, NewColtsFan said:


One if the many problems with mick draft simulators is this….   
 

A proposed trade down from 15 to 26, and the simulator gives you a 2nd this year and a FIRST next year?!?!?    That isn’t the least bit realistic.   It’s not even clear to me that you get a 2 only.  You might not.  You might only get a 3.   But you’d never, ever also get a future first the following year.  The 2 alone was the most you’d get.  
 

The people who program these mock simulators are terrible at trade compensation offers.  They are rarely realistic.  This is one of the worst I’ve ever seen.  Sorry, not blaming you.  Just trying to offer context to the issue. 

Yeah, whenever I go through mock drafts I don't even accept unrealistic lopsided trade proposals. I often take them straight to the charts and compare value.

 

Now as far as the 1st and 2nd this year for TB, that is actually 20pts less than the value of #15.

 

So I could see maybe a 2024/ or 2025 5th added with the 1st and 2nd, but nothing near an additional 1st.

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11 hours ago, Dobbinblitz said:

From the Horseshoe Huddle on the Colts potentially drafting a Cornerback in round one ( A case against using the first pick on a CB - from an early impact standpoint):

 

"After impressive performances last season, largely from Jones and Flowers, inserting a first-round pick into the lineup ahead of these two may not create as major of a difference as fans would expect in year one."

 

Three Colts performed better than the average first round draft pick in Yards After Catch. The first round average was 4.11.  Jones was 1.84, flowers 2.64, and Brents 2.78. Yards per coverage snap was another strong area for the Colts Young Cornerbacks. Jones also beat the first round cornerback average for Reception Percentage (Avg. 60.63%) Jones came in at 54.4%

 

"If Jones can sustain his performance next season while allowing two or three fewer touchdowns and getting his hands on one or two interceptions, that would end up being a season that would rival anything you could expect from a rookie cornerback, even a first-rounder."

 

Ballard on Jones "I thought Jones played really good football last year and did it against some very talented wideouts and never once backed down."

Same thing I've pointed out but you know how people are around draft time. They think everything needs to be replaced. Especially if the guys playing said position are low round draft picks or undrafted no matter how good a player they show to be.

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7 hours ago, richard pallo said:

11th ranked with Gardner Minshew at quarterback and a rookie slot receiver.  Wow!  That’s darn impressive.  Bring on AR.

One factor could be other teams distributing largely to more than 3 receivers, while Colts had a pretty much the same top 3 WRs competing for targets, so statistically 3 WRs of Colts rank among the highest among the league.

 

It cannot be interpreted that Colts have 11th best WR group.

 

It just means that Colts spread the targets to their top 3 WRs consistently over last season, while these 3 WRs have done well to amass the stats.

 

Most other teams probably spread the targets to more number of receivers so their top 3 might not have got the stats, but some of them could've had better passing efficiency. 

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Something feels a little different. I'm still sticking by my guns and saying no but maybe they really are entertaining a trade up. Maybe Reggie is in Ballard ear saying "Bruh we need to give AR what #18 had!". "He needs The Arsenal".  

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32 minutes ago, krunk said:

Something feels a little different. I'm still sticking by my guns and saying no but maybe they really are entertaining a trade up. Maybe Reggie is in Ballard ear saying "Bruh we need to give AR what #18 had!". "He needs The Arsenal".  


Peyton had Marvin Harrison drafted in the 20’s and Reggie Wayne drafted around 30.  
 

They both became Hall of Fame players.  You don’t have to trade up to find great talent.    Just sayin…. 
 

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1 hour ago, NewColtsFan said:


Peyton had Marvin Harrison drafted in the 20’s and Reggie Wayne drafted around 30.  
 

They both became Hall of Fame players.  You don’t have to trade up to find great talent.    Just sayin…. 
 

Personally I think if we didn't move up even a couple spots for AR, then why would we do the same for a WR or TE? I'm wondering if the move up for Bowers report is us trying to entice someone else to move up? Anyway the air feels different to me when I'm trying to get a gut feel on this thing.

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43 minutes ago, krunk said:

Personally I think if we didn't move up even a couple spots for AR, then why would we do the same for a WR or TE? I'm wondering if the move up for Bowers report is us trying to entice someone else to move up? Anyway the air feels different to me when I'm trying to get a gut feel on this thing.


I hear ya.  And I feel ya.   I have no idea what we might do?   I only know what I hope for…..

 

1.   WR or PASS RUSH

2.   PASS RUSH or WR

3.   Corner

 

4.   Safety

5.   LB 

6.   OL or RB

7.    RB or OL

 

But I expect to be disappointed or maybe surprised is the better word on all 3 days of the draft.   But I trust Ballard and Steichen together.  

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4 hours ago, krunk said:

Something feels a little different. I'm still sticking by my guns and saying no but maybe they really are entertaining a trade up. Maybe Reggie is in Ballard ear saying "Bruh we need to give AR what #18 had!". "He needs The Arsenal".  

I get the same feeling honestly. My brain says it’s either stand pat or trade back but there’s something in the air that says the Colts are up to something. 

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4 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:


Peyton had Marvin Harrison drafted in the 20’s and Reggie Wayne drafted around 30.  
 

They both became Hall of Fame players.  You don’t have to trade up to find great talent.    Just sayin…. 
 

It helps when you have a HOF QB

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The NFL draft is just a couple of weeks out and a Georgia Bulldog has made one last push at improving his draft stock. Tight end Brock Bowers and offensive lineman Amarius Mims participated in a private pro day on Wednesday in which 15 NFL teams were represented.

One of the biggest pieces of news that came out of the private pro day was Brock Bowers' 40-yard time, which many were intrigued to hear about when the NFL combine rolled around, but Bowers did not participate due to an injury. At the pro day, Bowers posted a 4.53 40-yard time, first reported by Dawg Nation Daily.

https://www.si.com/college/georgia/brock-bowers-posts-impressive-40-time-ahead-2024-nfl-draft

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Closer we get to draft time I’m hoping more and more the Colts trade up their 2nd or 3rd round picks. If AR is who this team thinks he is, the roster is 3-4 players away from being a hard team to beat in the playoffs. I think we are past the quantity dart board approach and now into adding quality players. Personally, I think this draft and next years can set the foundation for a contending team for the next 4-6 years. 
 

We may already have 1-2 of these players already on the roster. I’m really interested in the development of Downs, Cross and these TEs and CBs. There is talent in these spots and I think at least one of them steps up to be a very good starter. I know the big question is AR, if he elevates this team we will be able to compete with anyone. 3/4 more good to great players and we can beat anyone. 

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8 minutes ago, jvan1973 said:

It helps when you have a HOF QB

Yet he wasn’t a HoF QB in year two. Infact, for those of us old enough to remember, there were some calling Peyton a bust in 2001 when we went 3-13 and saying we should have gone Leaf…

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