Update: Colts signing Michael Pittman Jr to three year contract

[ColtStrong2013]

29 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

Him re-signing with IND is the most likely outcome though. But if you had told me last year that we would be a week or so from the tag deadline and MPJ was still unsigned, I wouldn't have believed it. That's just not the trend with WRs...and not the trend with Colts players. And now he's publicly talking about exploring FA and not sacrificing career potential for comfort. 

 

It just seems like there has to be some hesitation somewhere, whether that's the org. or MPJ's camp. But money typically clears that up.

I think it’s just him posturing. He knows they have leverage with the tag and that they want to keep him. So he’s playing the game to try and max that deal. At the end of the day, he’s still our number 1 and hasn’t realized his potential because of the qb situation. He has leverage in that we can’t afford to let him walk without a major plan to replace him. And that’s a huge risk that might not turn out in our favor. Ballard re-signs his own. It’s part of his fundamental belief. I think the hesitation has been his camp all along, or else he would have extended already. And he’s not wrong… the cap increase shows he understands the business. 

[shasta519]

39 minutes ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

You don’t think Moore is replaceable? You aren’t concerned about him dropping off in a year or two? 
 

I’m not against re-signing him. I just wonder if it wouldn’t be better to find more versatile players in the secondary that we can stack on the roster. Finding a safety or two that can cover in that spot gives us more versatility. 

 

Moore played slot CB closer to the LOS than he ever has. From 2000-2022, his aDOT was ~8 yds. This past year, it was ~4.

 

That obviously helped him tremendously, In that CAR game, he got two pick 6s just hanging around the LOS. But outside of that game, he also allowed a 113 passer rating, per PFR, which is not too far off what it was in 2022 (117). 

 

Plus, Moore is going to be 29. He could easily lose a step and be the liability he was toward the end of 2021 and throughout 2022. 

 

It just seems like there should be plenty of DBs out there with the skillset to handle that type of role, who will cost much less. And likely several of those DBs would be more versatile with less risk for slowing down.

 

He's only one year removed from being a cut candidate. So giving him a big extension based off this season seems like a bad bet. He does provide vet leadership, which is important, but that should only factor in why they would want to bring him back, not how much they would be willing to pay.

 

It also comes down to this. Let's say they can a get good CB1 in FA. Wouldn't you rather have that player and find another player to take Moore's role (either in the draft or via cheaper vet CBs), than give Moore a big contract AND have to fill that boundary CB1 spot via the draft? Seems like an easy choice.

[csmopar]

7 hours ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

You don’t think Moore is replaceable? You aren’t concerned about him dropping off in a year or two? 
 

I’m not against re-signing him. I just wonder if it wouldn’t be better to find more versatile players in the secondary that we can stack on the roster. Finding a safety or two that can cover in that spot gives us more versatility. 

Which is exactly where I’m at. What I meant is we need someone that can produce like he does, so we need his production level not necessarily him. I think he’s got maybe 1-2 seasons left. He is starting to get injured more and more it seems too

[Hawkeyecolt]

I would follow the Bengals route and tag Pittman now with the understanding a long-term deal will get done.  I would cut Cox and extend Buckner which would give the Colts about $100 million in cap space going into free-agency. 
 

I would tackle free-agency of Blackmon, Grover, Moore and outside free-agents prior to Pittman’s deal giving the Colts more flexibility on how to structure Pittman’s deal.  I know there is a tendency to back load deals.  I think the Colts should avoid that if possible considering AR and Raimann will get huge raises a couple years down the road. 

[Solid84]

If we sign Pittman to a contract before the Tag deadline tuesday, do you feel there is another guy who could get tagged?

 

Grover Stewart?

Kenny Moore II?

Another?

[w87r]

1 minute ago, Solid84 said:

If we sign Pittman to a contract before the Tag deadline tuesday, do you feel there is another guy who could get tagged?

 

Grover Stewart?

Kenny Moore II?

Another?

Not a chance 

 

Grover tag amount - $22m

Moore tag amount - $19.8m

 

 

Pittman or no one 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

13 minutes ago, Solid84 said:

If we sign Pittman to a contract before the Tag deadline tuesday, do you feel there is another guy who could get tagged?

 

Grover Stewart?

Kenny Moore II?

Another?

What is the tag number for Grover? I think Moores number would be high. But it sounds like they are going to let Kenny test the market.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

11 minutes ago, w87r said:

Not a chance 

 

Grover tag amount - $22m

Moore tag amount - $19.8m

 

 

Pittman or no one 

Yeah way too high. Is there different tags that would be a different amounts?

[Solid84]

13 minutes ago, w87r said:

Not a chance 

 

Grover tag amount - $22m

Moore tag amount - $19.8m

 

 

Pittman or no one 

Yeah that's too high.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Guys like Chris jones and Buckner have driven up those DT franchise prices.

[w87r]

11 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Yeah way too high. Is there different tags that would be a different amounts?

Could transition tag, but only have right to match. No compensation back if refuse to match.

 

Grover - $18.491m

Moore - $17.215m

 

 

Both those are still to high.

[w87r]

10 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Guys like Chris jones and Buckner have driven up those DT franchise prices.

Aaron Donald is the big pusher of the DT numbers.

 

Chris Jones played a good part to. Buckner is kinda in line with the rest of top 10-15.

[AwesomeAustin]

Mike Evans signed for 26m a year in Tampa. I’m guessing that will drive MPJs price up a little. Evans has obviously had a great career but at this point they are closer in talent level. I don’t think he will get more but will probably want to be close 

[Superman]

15 minutes ago, AwesomeAustin said:

Mike Evans signed for 26m a year in Tampa. I’m guessing that will drive MPJs price up a little. Evans has obviously had a great career but at this point they are closer in talent level. I don’t think he will get more but will probably want to be close 

 

I don't think Evans' contract has significant bearing on MPJ's market. His prior contract wasn't a comp because it was too old, and his new contract still comes in behind the top guys at $30m/year. It doesn't really change anything, IMO.

[NewColtsFan]

On 2/26/2024 at 8:12 AM, shasta519 said:

 

Moore played slot CB closer to the LOS than he ever has. From 2000-2022, his aDOT was ~8 yds. This past year, it was ~4.

 

That obviously helped him tremendously, In that CAR game, he got two pick 6s just hanging around the LOS. But outside of that game, he also allowed a 113 passer rating, per PFR, which is not too far off what it was in 2022 (117). 

 

Plus, Moore is going to be 29. He could easily lose a step and be the liability he was toward the end of 2021 and throughout 2022. 

 

It just seems like there should be plenty of DBs out there with the skillset to handle that type of role, who will cost much less. And likely several of those DBs would be more versatile with less risk for slowing down.

 

He's only one year removed from being a cut candidate. So giving him a big extension based off this season seems like a bad bet. He does provide vet leadership, which is important, but that should only factor in why they would want to bring him back, not how much they would be willing to pay.

 

It also comes down to this. Let's say they can a get good CB1 in FA. Wouldn't you rather have that player and find another player to take Moore's role (either in the draft or via cheaper vet CBs), than give Moore a big contract AND have to fill that boundary CB1 spot via the draft? Seems like an easy choice.

I’ll respectfully disagree.    
 

Kenny’s contract might be 2/20 or maybe 3/30.   But the contract for a CB1 in free agency is more likely to be 5/75 or 4/50 if you’re lucky.    So I’d have no interest in filling key nerds in FA with expensive deals.   Justin Houston’s 2/24 deal remains the highest FA contract on a per year basis.   I hope Ballard doesn’t exceed that amount.   

[AwesomeAustin]

1 hour ago, Superman said:

 

I don't think Evans' contract has significant bearing on MPJ's market. His prior contract wasn't a comp because it was too old, and his new contract still comes in behind the top guys at $30m/year. It doesn't really change anything, IMO.

I hope not but my gut is telling me MPJ may get 25m a year. I think it goes for 100m even at 4yrs. Maybe a slight yearly discount if it’s 5yrs. Just my opinion but I don’t see us getting a team friendly deal beyond it being front loaded with possible outs the last year or two. 

[IinD]

Contracts go up in terms of annual payment and overall contract so in reality who cares.

 

Punters will be making 10M a year eventually.

 

I remember when Peyton was in the $20M range and people were all 'omg how will the Colts be able to sign anyone?'... Good QB's are what in the 40-50M range now?

 

Sign the guy and let's try and get a championship run going. 

 

I think salary cap purgatory rarely happens and if it does it's for a year or two, not 10. We see teams every single year supposedly doomed and they somehow figure it out without much harm.

[Superman]

38 minutes ago, AwesomeAustin said:

I hope not but my gut is telling me MPJ may get 25m a year. I think it goes for 100m even at 4yrs. Maybe a slight yearly discount if it’s 5yrs. Just my opinion but I don’t see us getting a team friendly deal beyond it being front loaded with possible outs the last year or two. 

 

I already had him between $22-25m/year. He said he wanted to test his market, so a team friendly deal was never going to happen. And Ballard all but said he'd use the tag, so $22m should be considered the floor. The bolded is going to be true of almost any long term contract.

[csmopar]

4 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I already had him between $22-25m/year. He said he wanted to test his market, so a team friendly deal was never going to happen. And Ballard all but said he'd use the tag, so $22m should be considered the floor. The bolded is going to be true of almost any long term contract.

A lot of teams have been using more backloaded contracts with higher dead cap hits but those generally are doing it for cap relief in a win now mode. We’re not in win now. But I agree, 22-26 million is where I figured Pittman would be once the dust settles

[JediXMan]

[stitches]

Something to remember - the raise in cap space was even higher than anticipated. Teams will have more money than previously projected and thus it's possible some of the new contracts are going to look a bit elevated... 

[richard pallo]

On 2/28/2024 at 3:27 PM, w87r said:

Aaron Donald is the big pusher of the DT numbers.

 

Chris Jones played a good part to. Buckner is kinda in line with the rest of top 10-15.

Looks like DT Christian WIlkens will not get the tag for Miami.  According to BR this morning the Colts had discussions with Miami regarding trading JT for WIlkens back when the drama started with JT’s contract.  It didn’t happen but now that he will be a FA there is a possibility the Colts could still be interested in signing him as he would be a replacement for Grover.  WIlkens is 28.  

[Superman]

16 minutes ago, csmopar said:

A lot of teams have been using more backloaded contracts with higher dead cap hits but those generally are doing it for cap relief in a win now mode. We’re not in win now. But I agree, 22-26 million is where I figured Pittman would be once the dust settles

 

Setting aside the extreme backloading that teams do to get under the cap -- like what's happened with the Saints -- generally speaking a 4-5 year contract allows the team to terminate the contract in the last two years and still save cap money. But yeah, when you start piling on multiple restructures, things change. 

[w87r]

4 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I already had him between $22-25m/year. He said he wanted to test his market, so a team friendly deal was never going to happen. And Ballard all but said he'd use the tag, so $22m should be considered the floor. The bolded is going to be true of almost any long term contract.

I think 3yr $72m is the floor currently.

 

(2) Tags is around 2yr $48m. Throw on a 3rd year for that amount non guaranteed. First 2 years guaranteed.

 

3yr $72m $15m SB $48m guaranteed 

2024 - $12m base, $5m SB - $17m Cap Hit (guaranteed)

2025 - $21m base, $5m SB - $26m Cap Hit (guaranteed)

2026 - $24m base, $5m SB - $29m Cap Hit($5m dead cap)

 

Time is ticking. Imagine we see the tag applied tomorrow.

[runthepost]

21 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

Looks like DT Christian WIlkens will not get the tag for Miami.  According to BR this morning the Colts had discussions with Miami regarding trading JT for WIlkens back when the drama started with JT’s contract.  It didn’t happen but now that he will be a FA there is a possibility the Colts could still be interested in signing him as he would be a replacement for Grover.  WIlkens is 28.  

He’s getting like 3 years 60M we can’t afford that

[richard pallo]

1 hour ago, runthepost said:

He’s getting like 3 years 60M we can’t afford that

Yes we can.  We wouldn't be paying Grover.

[GoColts8818]

1 minute ago, richard pallo said:

Yes we can.  We wouldn't be paying Grover.

I doubt Grover is getting three years at 60 million.  That would be double on what he got on his last contract.  

[richard pallo]

11 minutes ago, GoColts8818 said:

I doubt Grover is getting three years at 60 million.  That would be double on what he got on his last contract.  

I don’t think so either.  WIlkens would replace him.  They wanted him in a trade for JT.  Now they can sign him.  They wanted to trade for him knowing they would have to extend him.  Now they can sign him as a FA if they choose.  

[NewColtsFan]

2 hours ago, runthepost said:

He’s getting like 3 years 60M we can’t afford that

Deleted post. 

[w87r]

5 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

On what planet do you think Grover Stewart is getting 3/60?   
 

There are no projections from anyone that I’m aware of talking that kind of money.   Most projections I’ve seen are in the range of 12-14 mill per year.  Nothing close to $20 mill per. 

They're talking about Wilkins for that money, I think Wilkins will probably go for more than that though.

[NewColtsFan]

3 minutes ago, w87r said:

They're talking about Wilkins for that money, I think Wilkins will probably go for more than that though.

Thanks for that.   And yes, I wouldn’t be surprised if Wilkins gets something close to that.    Sorry for the trouble.  

[jvan1973]

2 hours ago, runthepost said:

He’s getting like 3 years 60M we can’t afford that

Nfl teams can afford whatever they want.   Look at the  rams 

[smittywerb]

I predicted Pittman will get $22mill/yr.  With Evans contract, $22mill looks like it could be the number.  Maybe $23mill.  I’m sticking to it.

[dw49]

39 minutes ago, smittywerb said:

I predicted Pittman will get $22mill/yr.  With Evans contract, $22mill looks like it could be the number.  Maybe $23mill.  I’m sticking to it.

 

I agree.

 

[ColtStrong2013]

When is this news going to drop? Tomorrow at 4?

[lester]

I'll play.

 

$92m/4 years. $55.2 million guaranteed.

 

 

[smittywerb]

12 hours ago, dw49 said:

 

I agree.

 

Looking at other WRs contracts, I personally believe he lies in the $19-$21 million range.  But with the cap increasing, the position being a premium one, and the need/want for us to retain him, I’d say throw on an extra million or two to prevent him feeling lowballed.  
 

I honestly think he’d be happy with $22million, but of course he has to maximize his potential contract and I don’t blame him.  What I don’t want to happen is he wants way more than that and instead of resigning, he leaves.

[Hawkeyecolt]

15 hours ago, richard pallo said:

I don’t think so either.  WIlkens would replace him.  They wanted him in a trade for JT.  Now they can sign him.  They wanted to trade for him knowing they would have to extend him.  Now they can sign him as a FA if they choose.  

Wilkins would be an upgrade but you shouldn’t believe anything BR reports. 

[richard pallo]

3 minutes ago, Hawkeyecolt said:

Wilkins would be an upgrade but you shouldn’t believe anything BR reports. 

They just mentioned the Colts as one of three teams that could be interested in WIlkens because of the fact he was the player we wanted from Miami when we were discussing trading Taylor to them.  So I can see them connecting the dots.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

We aren’t going after Wilkins. We are already paying Buckner.