Predict AR's second contract

[CR91]

Let's have fun with this since it's the NFL dead period. Obviously AR hasn't even signed his rookie contract, but let's say he pans out and becomes a top 5 QB. 5 years from now when his contract is up, what do you think the second contract looks like? 5 year 280 mil? 

[jvan1973]

I hope it's 60 million a year

[VikingsFanInChennai]

21 minutes ago, jvan1973 said:

I hope it's 60 million a year

You hope or think it will be? Or hope it's not that much in 5 years? Not exactly clear which side you're on 

 

Otherwise agreed, it looks like it will not be a surprise if it exceeds 60 million per year in 5 years. 

[GoColts8818]

I just hope he proves himself worthy of a second contract.  If he does I don’t care what it is because true franchise QBs can’t be over paid for.

[Moosejawcolt]

1 hour ago, CR91 said:

Let's have fun with this since it's the NFL dead period. Obviously AR hasn't even signed his rookie contract, but let's say he pans out and becomes a top 5 QB. 5 years from now when his contract is up, what do you think the second contract looks like? 5 year 280 mil? 

Well let's just hope he makes it to year 3.

[AwesomeAustin]

47 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Well let's just hope he makes it to year 3.

I’ve been holding back about this but might as well let the cat out of the bag. I think he will make it to year three but quite possibly have a veteran brought in to compete and replace him before his rookie deal is up. I think he will show value as a runner but never develops to an elite passer. If he can be adequate passing, maybe he will have a chance for a long extension from us.  I don’t think he will so 2yrs 20million as a stop gap starter for a different team 

[holeymoley99]

He may well be our starting TE over Granson and Woods...too many  tools not to excel somewhere 

[LJpalmbeacher2]

10 years $755 million with $443 million Guaranteed.

So glad he gave A hometown discount.

[Nickster]

9 hours ago, VikingsFanInChennai said:

You hope or think it will be? Or hope it's not that much in 5 years? Not exactly clear which side you're on 

 

Otherwise agreed, it looks like it will not be a surprise if it exceeds 60 million per year in 5 years. 

I read it as hope.  If the phrases Anthony Richardson and 60 mill per are plausibly linked in a few years that means AR is a super duper star. 

8 hours ago, GoColts8818 said:

I just hope he proves himself worthy of a second contract.  If he does I don’t care what it is because true franchise QBs can’t be over paid for.

That’s a great way to put it.

[csmopar]

9 hours ago, CR91 said:

Let's have fun with this since it's the NFL dead period. Obviously AR hasn't even signed his rookie contract, but let's say he pans out and becomes a top 5 QB. 5 years from now when his contract is up, what do you think the second contract looks like? 5 year 280 mil? 

Impossible to guess at this stage. Too many variables. Asking me in 3 years 

[Chucklez]

It's impossible to know what the salary cap is going to do in 5 years' time... to put it into perspective, the contract that Andrew Luck signed back in 2016 (making him the highest paid player at the time) was a 5 year, $122.9m ($87m guaranteed) contract that had an average annual salary of $24.6m.

That is "only" about 7 years ago now. In contrast, the deal signed by Lamar this off-seson was a 5 year, $260m contract... literally more than double. And obviously you have the insane Mahomes contract that was a 10 year $450m contract in the mix as well.

The point being, if we are only looking at $60m per year in 5 years time from now for superstar franchise QB's, id be surprised.

[Myles]

I won't throw a guess out there because there are too many variables.  He may be a bust and out of the league before his rookie contract is done.  That isn't that much of a stretch.  He may also prove to be an elite QB in the league.   Or he may be a Fields type of QB where potential keeps him going.

[Moosejawcolt]

13 hours ago, AwesomeAustin said:

I’ve been holding back about this but might as well let the cat out of the bag. I think he will make it to year three but quite possibly have a veteran brought in to compete and replace him before his rookie deal is up. I think he will show value as a runner but never develops to an elite passer. If he can be adequate passing, maybe he will have a chance for a long extension from us.  I don’t think he will so 2yrs 20million as a stop gap starter for a different team 

 I have no idea how he will do. Qbs have come out of college with far better accuracy numbers and have failed. The NFL is a different league now in terms of how it is working with these guys' strengths and hiding their weaknesses. Time will only tell.

[2006Coltsbestever]

12 hours ago, LJpalmbeacher2 said:

10 years $755 million with $443 million Guaranteed.

So glad he gave A hometown discount.

That sounds about right 

[AwesomeAustin]

56 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

 I have no idea how he will do. Qbs have come out of college with far better accuracy numbers and have failed. The NFL is a different league now in terms of how it is working with these guys' strengths and hiding their weaknesses. Time will only tell.

I agree bc I also have no idea how he will do. Rookie qb and head coach. All we can do is wait and see. I will enjoy the team either way. 

[jvan1973]

16 hours ago, VikingsFanInChennai said:

You hope or think it will be? Or hope it's not that much in 5 years? Not exactly clear which side you're on 

 

Otherwise agreed, it looks like it will not be a surprise if it exceeds 60 million per year in 5 years. 

If it's 60 million a year it means he is a legit NFL qb and we picked the right guy

[csmopar]

2 hours ago, jvan1973 said:

If it's 60 million a year it means he is a legit NFL qb and we picked the right guy

There’s a bunch of IFs in that. But yes, I agree

[jvan1973]

54 minutes ago, csmopar said:

There’s a bunch of IFs in that. But yes, I agree

Of coarse there is.   That's why I said I hope it's 60 million a year

[chad72]

 

[sb41champs]

Time will tell!!

[DougDew]

Do you mean in the NFL?

 

Or his next contract, which will be with the USFL after he gets waived 3 years from now?

[2006Coltsbestever]

1 minute ago, DougDew said:

Do you mean in the NFL?

 

Or his next contract, which will be with the USFL after he gets waived 3 years from now?

Ouch 

[DougDew]

1 hour ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Ouch 

Actually, I believe what a lot seem to believe:

 

Before his rookie season even starts, I think AR will be the savior of the Colts.  The league will look to him as the model for all players at his position, and to be the model player at his position indefinitely. 

 

Just like how Malik Hooker and Quentin Nelson were thought of before they took an NFL snap. 

[teganslaw]

Too many variables to predict his contract. The way things are going with QBs it could past 500 million by the time his second contract rolls around., if he does well.

[NewColtsFan]

On 7/4/2023 at 6:01 PM, CR91 said:

Let's have fun with this since it's the NFL dead period. Obviously AR hasn't even signed his rookie contract, but let's say he pans out and becomes a top 5 QB. 5 years from now when his contract is up, what do you think the second contract looks like? 5 year 280 mil? 

Honestly, I don’t know, and I don’t much care.   
 

But I’ll say this, whenever it happens I don’t think AR will become the highest paid QB as most top QBs inevitably becomes.   And that’s because all of these other QBs were/are much MUCH further along than AR.    Richardson will be learning how to play quarterback they way everyone else learned in college but AR didn’t.   So when it’s time for Richardson to get his second contract, I think he’s more likely to get a good contract like the Giants gave Daniel Jones (4/160-ish) but not a great contract that the other promising young QBs are getting or going to get.  
 

So, maybe AR takes a shorter contract 3-4 years at roughly 40-45m per.   These are ballpark numbers.   But it’s hard to see Richardson having so much success his first 3-4 years that he’s going to get a huge mister deal.   It’d be great if it happens, but as of today, I don’t see it. 

[ProblChld32]

I’d rather see how he pans out first before thinking that far into the future. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

2 hours ago, ProblChld32 said:

I’d rather see how he pans out first before thinking that far into the future. 

A lot of people in here will say he sucks or want him benched if he plays 3 or 4 bad games in a row. The sane people in here/good posters which there are many, will give him at least 2 years of play before they have an idea whether he will be good or bad. Imagine what this place would've been like after Peyton's rookie season - which was a full season. We went 3-13 and he had 28 INT's. I am sure most thought he would bust. I give AR 2 full years before I say whether he will be good or bad, or maybe potentially could be great. Season 1 is a learning process but he may look good - who knows? 2nd season AR does need to ramp it up and not look worse.

[CR91]

21 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

Honestly, I don’t know, and I don’t much care.   
 

But I’ll say this, whenever it happens I don’t think AR will become the highest paid QB as most top QBs inevitably becomes.   And that’s because all of these other QBs were/are much MUCH further along than AR.    Richardson will be learning how to play quarterback they way everyone else learned in college but AR didn’t.   So when it’s time for Richardson to get his second contract, I think he’s more likely to get a good contract like the Giants gave Daniel Jones (4/160-ish) but not a great contract that the other promising young QBs are getting or going to get.  
 

So, maybe AR takes a shorter contract 3-4 years at roughly 40-45m per.   These are ballpark numbers.   But it’s hard to see Richardson having so much success his first 3-4 years that he’s going to get a huge mister deal.   It’d be great if it happens, but as of today, I don’t see it. 

 

I feel like things are structured for AR to succeed or atleast not go through the prototypical rookie wall with the type of offense, Pitt and JT to take pressure off, and a very good defense from last year. AR does not need to win right away. There's no pressure in terms of expectations this year. Not saying he's gonna be Mahomes, but I feel like the building blocks are there. Oline is still a question sure, but there's no statue standing back there anymore so even if things break down, AR can attack on the run with his arm or legs.

[crazycolt1]

On 7/5/2023 at 6:55 AM, csmopar said:

Impossible to guess at this stage. Too many variables. Asking me in 3 years 

Exactly.  Alot depends on how much the salary cap goes up over the next 5 years.  

[Blueblood23]

2 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

Exactly.  Alot depends on how much the salary cap goes up over the next 5 years.  

A lot depends if he makes it as a quarterback. Seems like a few cheerleaders think he’s going to make the HOF. He’s either a home run or a whiff and not much in between. Time will tell!

[NewColtsFan]

52 minutes ago, CR91 said:

 

I feel like things are structured for AR to succeed or atleast not go through the prototypical rookie wall with the type of offense, Pitt and JT to take pressure off, and a very good defense from last year. AR does not need to win right away. There's no pressure in terms of expectations this year. Not saying he's gonna be Mahomes, but I feel like the building blocks are there. Oline is still a question sure, but there's no statue standing back there anymore so even if things break down, AR can attack on the run with his arm or legs.

All that you say is true.   Except what you don’t say.   AR has less than 1000 snaps of experience.   And there’s just no short cut for that.   So he’ll be leaning on the job.   He’ll be making mistakes at the NFL level.  
 

Look at the 21 class of QB’s.   That was supposed to be a good one.  
 

1.  Lawrence has had 1.5 disappointing seasons before the light went on midway thru last year. 
 

2.  Wilson.  Not mature enough plus injuries.   Two disappointing seasons. 
 

3.  Lance.  Injuries plus inexperience.  Two disappointing seasons. 
 

11.  Fields.  Disappointing passer, brilliant runner.  Very poor supporting cast.   Mixed reviews, but said to be very good this off-season. 
 

15.   Mac Jones.  Best rookie year of any rookie QB in this class.  But disappointing 2nd year when Belichick screwed up and gave him TERRIBLE o-coordinator support.  This year, Jones has O’Brien and is expected to improve.  
 

So how is it that all 5 of these players have had disappointment in their first two years, yet you and many others here think Richardson won’t have his share of struggles?   I think history says AR says he will.   Honestly, I think history SCREAMS he will struggle some.   Look, I hope I’m wrong and that AR surprises to the upside.  I’d be thrilled!   But I haven’t seen, or read anything that gives me reason for such optimism. 

[NewColtsFan]

46 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

Exactly.  Alot depends on how much the salary cap goes up over the next 5 years.  

Answering your question about the cap….

 

After the cap went down for two years due to Covid, it has been trending back up and is about to explode thanks to lots much more new media money. 
 

2022:  $208.2m.  +10m from 21.

2023:    224.8.      +16.6 from 22.

2024:    256m.      +31.2 from 23.

2025:    282.         +26.0 from 24.

2026:    308m.      +26.0 from 25.

 

NOTE:   Info from OverTheCap.com

 

[csmopar]

1 hour ago, Blueblood23 said:

A lot depends if he makes it as a quarterback. Seems like a few cheerleaders think he’s going to make the HOF. He’s either a home run or a whiff and not much in between. Time will tell!

My bar is lower. If he turns out to be a top 10 QB to top 15, in 3 years I’m happy

[CR91]

3 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

All that you say is true.   Except what you don’t say.   AR has less than 1000 snaps of experience.   And there’s just no short cut for that.   So he’ll be leaning on the job.   He’ll be making mistakes at the NFL level.  
 

Look at the 21 class of QB’s.   That was supposed to be a good one.  
 

1.  Lawrence has had 1.5 disappointing seasons before the light went on midway thru last year. 
 

2.  Wilson.  Not mature enough plus injuries.   Two disappointing seasons. 
 

3.  Lance.  Injuries plus inexperience.  Two disappointing seasons. 
 

11.  Fields.  Disappointing passer, brilliant runner.  Very poor supporting cast.   Mixed reviews, but said to be very good this off-season. 
 

15.   Mac Jones.  Best rookie year of any rookie QB in this class.  But disappointing 2nd year when Belichick screwed up and gave him TERRIBLE o-coordinator support.  This year, Jones has O’Brien and is expected to improve.  
 

So how is it that all 5 of these players have had disappointment in their first two years, yet you and many others here think Richardson won’t have his share of struggles?   I think history says AR says he will.   Honestly, I think history SCREAMS he will struggle some.   Look, I hope I’m wrong and that AR surprises to the upside.  I’d be thrilled!   But I haven’t seen, or read anything that gives me reason for such optimism. 

 

Hold on. I didn't say he won't struggle. I'm saying there are resources to his disposal that not many top five picks have. Actual weapons, a scheme that fits his play style, a QB familiar with the scheme to help speed up the learning curve. A potential top 10 defense 

[NewColtsFan]

16 minutes ago, CR91 said:

 

Hold on. I didn't say he won't struggle. I'm saying there are resources to his disposal that not many top five picks have. Actual weapons, a scheme that fits his play style, a QB familiar with the scheme to help speed up the learning curve. A potential top 10 defense 

So?    It’s not like we’ve surrounded him with a team that other quarterbacks haven’t had.   With all that he has, he’s going to have plenty of long tough days at the office.  The cast the Colts have given AR may help him, but that only goes so far.  
 

There are growing pains ahead.  Learning at the NFL level instead of college isn’t ideal.   It’ll be much harder.   That’s why I don’t think AR gets his second contract after 3 years.   I think it’ll come when Luck’s second contract came — after his 4th year.   And I don’t think it’ll be for 5 years.   I think it’ll be for 3-4 years.   Safer for both sides. 
 

I think there’s a bumpy road ahead. 

[CR91]

9 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

So?    It’s not like we’ve surrounded him with a team that other quarterbacks haven’t had.   With all that he has, he’s going to have plenty of long tough days at the office.  The cast the Colts have given AR may help him, but that only goes so far.  
 

There are growing pains ahead.  Learning at the NFL level instead of college isn’t ideal.   It’ll be much harder.   That’s why I don’t think AR gets his second contract after 3 years.   I think it’ll come when Luck’s second contract came — after his 4th year.   And I don’t think it’ll be for 5 years.   I think it’ll be for 3-4 years.   Safer for both sides. 
 

I think there’s a bumpy road ahead. 

 

And that's fine. I'm not saying there won't be growing pains. All I'm saying is AR is better equipped then most top 5 picks. There is talent on this roster compared to say the Texans or Panthers who are building from the ground up.

[Stephen]

Zero aliens will invade earth by then lol

[LJpalmbeacher2]

AR5 will have 5 seasons to learn his craft at the NFL level, so I don't think having a season or two less than other QBs did in college will effect his ability in 4 or 5 years from now. 

 

Right now I believe the salaries for Top QBs are around $50mill or so?. With inflation I wouldn't be surprised if it rises another 20 million or more in 6 years. I think AR5 will be a Top QB and get paid accordingly and think possibly opposing teams will look at going up against him in a few years  like today's teams look at playing Burrow & Maholmes. 

If the coaching and lack of weapons are lacking and/or his passing skills don't progress to what I think they will, I would think his floor will still be somewhere around Lemar Jackson, which isn't bad.

 

I'm not usually so optimistic about the Colts, but I am about him and really like what I see from him on & off the field. Not just his off the chart physicality but his football IQ and desire/hunger to succeed. 

 

I could be wrong of course and anything can happen. But I think the colts were fortunate to get him and hope they do their part and surround him with good coaching and supporting cast. 

 

10 years $750 million. 

[LJpalmbeacher2]

7 hours ago, Stephen said:

Zero aliens will invade earth by then lol

Word is humans will say aliens are invading but it will actually be humans orchestrating a alien  invasion. 

 

https://exopolitics.org/von-brauns-false-flag-alien-invasion-genuine-warning-or-deception/#:~:text=From 1974 – 1977%2C Werner Von Braun began,space and usher in a New World Order.