Only 2 Teams Worth Trading Draft Pick To

[ColtsBlitz]

1 hour ago, DraftMaster said:

Explanation? They don’t have a QB and he is hyped up big time. I guess waiting for the combine is a smarter time to begin those types of predictions. 

[Shadow_Creek]

True Dallas does have that amazing Oline and yes a combination of those 3 things happening would be awesome

[Shadow_Creek]

3 minutes ago, DraftMaster said:

I'll let this article from Chris Shepherd explain. These RB's have not contributed in ways that you think they have:

https://www.stampedeblue.com/2017/12/28/16801912/psa-like-it-or-not-the-draft-is-about-value-and-other-reasons-not-to-draft-a-rb-early

 

Also PFF ranks Fournette 24th among NFL HB's:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/nfl/players/leonard-fournette/11759

 

Leonard Fournette averaged 3.9 YPC in 2017.

Dion Lewis averages 5.0 YPC and he could be a free agent this year. The Colts should get him if they can at a thrifty price. I get it that Barkley is good but even Todd Gurley had a sophomore slump. Frank Gore's longevity is exception, not rule.

 

Some Dion Lewis highlights to chew on:

 

wow good summary. I guess we should just go with best player available then

[DraftMaster]

1 minute ago, Shadow_Creek said:

wow good summary. I guess we should just go with best player available then

Thanks.

 

[DraftMaster]

4 minutes ago, ColtsBlitz said:

Explanation? They don’t have a QB and he is hyped up big time. I guess waiting for the combine is a smarter time to begin those types of predictions. 

Not one NFL draft expert has Mayfield @ No.1. They might take him later, but not at No. 1.

 

[Fluke_33]

I would consider trading down from 3 to 4 if the browns kicked in their other 1st rounder as compensation then I would trade that to the giants for all of their picks then trade that and so on and so forth until we had all the picks then take Nelson with each and every pick.  

[mahagga73]

2 hours ago, DraftMaster said:

Why is everyone want Barkley so much?

Because he's an elite talent. A Luck-Barkley combo could be PM-Edge part 2. Take the heat of Andrew having to win every game by passing every down.  Lessen the punishment.  The Colts aren't that far off in defense.  The Oline and pass rush can be addressed multiple ways.  Can't pass up game changers in an offensive league.  

[aaron11]

8 minutes ago, DraftMaster said:

 

Dion Lewis

he would be nothing special outside of the patriots scheme 

[superrep1967]

2 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

If Barkley is there, Ballard ain’t trading down. If he does teams are going to have to break the bank to get him to move off Barkley. Someone is going to have to offer a first next year in addition to a 2nd and 3rd this year.

 

If Barkley is gone then the Jets with 2 2nd rounders are the best option and they’d have to give us both plus another pick.

I think we need to get two first round picks and get two O-lineman. 

[DraftMaster]

To all Barkley fans: Look, I get that he would be an amazing compliment to Luck.

 

But look at this stat:

Andrew Luck is undefeated (25-0) when the Colts allow 19 points or less in his NFL career

 

That said, I feel that we have to take Chubb and then go with the O-Line in later rounds and with free agency as well. Imagine if we could allow 19 points or less every game in 2018? Not 16-0, but very close to that. Chubb would be the best option to help rush the passer so our DB's don't have to be in coverage for over 10 seconds per snap.

[mahagga73]

3 minutes ago, DraftMaster said:

To all Barkley fans: Look, I get that he would be an amazing compliment to Luck.

 

But look at this stat:

Andrew Luck is undefeated (25-0) when the Colts allow 19 points or less in his NFL career

 

That said, I feel that we have to take Chubb and then go with the O-Line in later rounds and with free agency as well. Imagine if we could allow 19 points or less every game in 2018? Not 16-0, but very close to that. Chubb would be the best option to help rush the passer so our DB's don't have to be in coverage for over 10 seconds per snap.

Have a feeling your going to get your way anyway. Wouldn't surprise me a bit if the Browns take Barkley 1st and then Darnaud or Allen fourth.  

[richard pallo]

To me I can see the benefit of using the chart as a starting point but we are talking a top five pick here.  I think when you get past the top ten picks the chart becomes a little more realistic but top 5 is going to require more than the chart IMO.  A sweetener or two to say the least especially if the team is moving for a QB.  I have said it before but if we had to trade I would do the Denver trade and they would have to throw in Shane Ray along with the picks outlined.  Mr. Elway, you want a franchise QB you have to pay.  You don't get your way all the time. 

[Defjamz26]

1 hour ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

I wouldn't speak with any certainty on any player right now.

 

We are all guessing.    No one knows nothing right now and I'm including myself in this.

 

I don't know why you'd think Barkley is a slam dunk pick at this point?  Nothing is certain....  

 

I trust the tape. 

[NewColtsFan]

24 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

I trust the tape. 

 

The tape isn't the issue...

 

What Ballard is thinking and what he wants to accomplish is the issue....    and again....    none of us knows...

 

 

[SLILLINGTON10]

Maybe Ballard gets a pick and a player or something. We have the cap space to take on a big contract of a guy like Von miller maybe?? Lol wishful thinking.

[DraftMaster]

50 minutes ago, mahagga73 said:

Have a feeling your going to get your way anyway. Wouldn't surprise me a bit if the Browns take Barkley 1st and then Darnaud or Allen fourth.  

What reason do people have that we should take Barkley besides all the restating of cliches that "he's a generational talent" and "have you seen the film?" These reasons could only fill up a small book for kids that are mostly pictures and don't make sense at all. I have given true reasoning to back up my thesis, where is yours? Or anybody that backs Barkley up for that matter? All I'm saying is I would like some reasoning the preference of Barkley besides "he's a generational talent".

[chad72]

1 hour ago, DraftMaster said:

I'll let this article from Chris Shepherd explain. These RB's have not contributed in ways that you think they have:

https://www.stampedeblue.com/2017/12/28/16801912/psa-like-it-or-not-the-draft-is-about-value-and-other-reasons-not-to-draft-a-rb-early

 

Also PFF ranks Fournette 24th among NFL HB's:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/nfl/players/leonard-fournette/11759

 

Leonard Fournette averaged 3.9 YPC in 2017.

Dion Lewis averages 5.0 YPC and he could be a free agent this year. The Colts should get him if they can at a thrifty price. I get it that Barkley is good but even Todd Gurley had a sophomore slump. Frank Gore's longevity is exception, not rule.

 

Some Dion Lewis highlights to chew on:

 

 

FWIW, no one fears Bortles or the Jags pass catchers as much as they fear Brady and his pass catchers, so Fournette faced far more stacked boxes. 

[DraftMaster]

2 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

FWIW, no one fears Bortles or the Jags pass catchers as much as they fear Brady and his pass catchers, so Fournette faced far more stacked boxes. 

His yards after contact lead the league as well chad72.

[chad72]

4 minutes ago, DraftMaster said:

His yards after contact lead the league as well chad72.

 

That would depend on our offensive scheme and who runs it, wouldn't it? We need a creative play caller and that is what is going to take our offense to the next level. If Josh McDaniels comes here, he might have us make a push for him. However, he has had a taste of success at the highest level, somehow I doubt he will not give a hometown discount to the Patriots.

 

Don't get me wrong, I am not saying Dion Lewis is not a good back or is not more versatile than Fournette, I just did not want people to forget to put Fournette's numbers in context, that is all. 

[Carlos Danger]

Idk... With the right deal, Ballard could conceivably trade further down and grab future picks, then package them to move back up in the 1st and still come out way ahead in value per the chart...

 

Future 1st rounders might not be anything to scoff at in either case... Hypothetically, of course. 

[DraftMaster]

1 minute ago, chad72 said:

 

That would depend on our offensive scheme and who runs it, wouldn't it? We need a creative play caller and that is what is going to take our offense to the next level. If Josh McDaniels comes here, he might have us make a push for him. However, he has had a taste of success at the highest level, somehow I doubt he will not give a hometown discount to the Patriots.

 

Don't get me wrong, I am not saying Dion Lewis is not a good back or is not more versatile than Fournette, I just did not want people to forget to put Fournette's numbers in context, that is all. 

I see. Thanks for the clarification.

[mahagga73]

46 minutes ago, DraftMaster said:

What reason do people have that we should take Barkley besides all the restating of cliches that "he's a generational talent" and "have you seen the film?" These reasons could only fill up a small book for kids that are mostly pictures and don't make sense at all. I have given true reasoning to back up my thesis, where is yours? Or anybody that backs Barkley up for that matter? All I'm saying is I would like some reasoning the preference of Barkley besides "he's a generational talent".

I just gave my reasoning in another post.  Settle down dude. 

[dgambill]

1 hour ago, aaron11 said:

he would be nothing special outside of the patriots scheme 

Exactly....because only in NE can a player be good. Nobody outside of NE has ever been good. Please if you put him in a similar role he can clearly be good...he isn’t going to forget how to catch the ball or make people miss.

[Colts_Fan12]

37 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

FWIW, no one fears Bortles or the Jags pass catchers as much as they fear Brady and his pass catchers, so Fournette faced far more stacked boxes. 

Been talking about him this year and for some reason everyone keeps saying he's nothing special when he had a very good rookie year its prolly cause he's a jaguar 

[dgambill]

3 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Fair enough...    I personally wouldn't take that approach, but at least you explained your thinking and it's not unreasonable...

 

Appreciate that...

 

Thanks...and I’m sure not all 32 GMs feel the same. I completely understand people operate differently. That said I only put this emphasis on picks high in the draft...perhaps a half dozen or more players....after that I would say the value chart more closely resembles trade values. Once you get outside those several special players at the top the difference in talent gets much more murkier and grey. Obvious there will still be times GMs don’t want to trade back when they have a player they want there but to me those high value players at the top would take a much higher premium to pass up then simply a straight value chart would represent for me. One year it might be the top 6 the next the top 10 but there is a set number and those in my opinion would require above market value to give up. I do agree it won’t be the same for everyone.

[aaron11]

16 minutes ago, dgambill said:

 Please if you put him in a similar role he can clearly be good

what other teams run their offense like the patriots?  

[aaron11]

46 minutes ago, DraftMaster said:

His yards after contact lead the league as well chad72.

last year that was Elliot

 

a first round pick

[dgambill]

10 minutes ago, aaron11 said:

what other teams run their offense like the patriots?  

He can play in a similar fashion as New Orleans uses Alvin kamara or Detroit uses Theo Riddick or Carolina uses Christian Mccaffery....it isn’t the system it’s the usage. Get the guy the ball in space he kills line backers...let’s not act like NE is some perfect system and everyone fails upon leaving. This isn’t rocket science...the guy makes tacklers miss and is almost unstoppable in space. What’s not to understand...we just need to use him in a similar manner.

[aaron11]

2 minutes ago, dgambill said:

He can play in a similar fashion as New Orleans uses Alvin kamara or Detroit uses Theo Riddick or Carolina uses Christian Mccaffery....it isn’t the system it’s the usage. Get the guy the ball in space he kills line backers...let’s not act like NE is some perfect system and everyone fails upon leaving. This isn’t rocket science...the guy makes tacklers miss and is almost unstoppable in space. What’s not to understand...we just need to use him in a similar manner.

i didnt even know he was a free agent

 

id prefer more of a between the tackles RB to pair with mack 

[dgambill]

1 minute ago, aaron11 said:

i didnt even know he was a free agent

 

id prefer more of a between the tackles RB to pair with mack 

I can understand that...I agree...but I love Lewis. I actually see him signing with SF....get used kinda similar to Freeman did in Atlanta.

[chad72]

34 minutes ago, dgambill said:

He can play in a similar fashion as New Orleans uses Alvin kamara or Detroit uses Theo Riddick or Carolina uses Christian Mccaffery....it isn’t the system it’s the usage. Get the guy the ball in space he kills line backers...let’s not act like NE is some perfect system and everyone fails upon leaving. This isn’t rocket science...the guy makes tacklers miss and is almost unstoppable in space. What’s not to understand...we just need to use him in a similar manner.

 

A QB who understands how to get rid of the ball quickly and an OC that identifies mismatches and spreads those RBs in space against LBs is pretty much what he needs. Sproles succeeded with the Chargers, then with the Saints, and then with the Eagles too, all of them used him to his strengths. Eagles did not use Dion Lewis however, well, and then he goes to the Patriots and lights it up. Burkhead - Bengals used him sparingly but he was slightly bigger than Giovani, and thus Patriots thought he could be useful by the goal line as well in addition to being in space, so he did a bit of both.

 

It is all about understanding how well to use who you have and the match ups. That is why I am surprised Green Bay, with Mike McCarthy, have not incorporated a pass catching RB in the Dion Lewis mold for their offense given how well Rodgers can spread it out.

[dgambill]

24 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

A QB who understands how to get rid of the ball quickly and an OC that identifies mismatches and spreads those RBs in space against LBs is pretty much what he needs. Sproles succeeded with the Chargers, then with the Saints, and then with the Eagles too, all of them used him to his strengths. Eagles did not use Dion Lewis however, well, and then he goes to the Patriots and lights it up. Burkhead - Bengals used him sparingly but he was slightly bigger than Giovani, and thus Patriots thought he could be useful by the goal line as well in addition to being in space, so he did a bit of both.

 

It is all about understanding how well to use who you have and the match ups. That is why I am surprised Green Bay, with Mike McCarthy, have not incorporated a pass catching RB in the Dion Lewis mold for their offense given how well Rodgers can spread it out.

I think they were trying to do that with Montgomery but they still need a between the tackle back to keep defenses honest. Maybe that’s why McCarthy just got a 1yr extension and is on the hot seat in GB.

[rockywoj]

I don’t care who the trading partner is, I am not trading down for anything less than a 1st & 2nd this year, plus a 1st rounder next year.  That’s my minimum to pull the trigger, no matter who the trade is with. 

[Shive]

8 hours ago, ColtsBlitz said:

Trubisky went at 2 last year and people love the kid from OU, so I can see it

I can actually see Baker Mayfield fall quite a bit, maybe even out if the top 20, possibly out of the 1st round. He's short, doesn't play in a pro-style offense, and has shown huge maturity issues (the crotch grab and running from the cops). We'll get a better picture of how he's viewed by teams as we get closer to the draft, but I seriously doubt he'll go top 5.

[Dark Superman]

9 hours ago, chad72 said:

If it is with Jets, it would be a 1, 2 and 3 or a 1 and both their second rounders or a 1, 2 and a future 2nd/3rd

 

If it is with Broncos, it would have to be a 1, 2, 3 or a 1, 2 and a future 2nd/3rd

 

I do agree it has to be with the Broncos or Jets because the talent pool gets much shallower closer to the Cardinals and Bills picks. Jets would be more enticing if it is future picks because the odds are greater with them picking in the Top 10 again, more than the Broncos who underachieved this year, IMO, and may go after Kirk Cousins thus placing their future picks later in the draft.

I would take this all day.

Especially if Barkley is off the board.

[shasta519]

The NYG aren't trading out...this is their chance to get Eli's successor and they won't pass it up. I suppose they could trade up with CLE to get their guy, but I expect we will hear (in coming weeks) about how a certain QB doesn't want to play for CLE...leaving CLE with little leverage.

 

So with that, the Colts are on the Catbird seat. One of these two scenarios will occur:

 

1) CLE and the NYG both take QBs and the Colts are looking at the non-QB BPA. They can take this player OR trade back in one of many scenarios.

 

2) CLE goes with Barkley at #1 and the NYG go with a QB. Now the Colts are sitting there with the #2 QB left on the board...one spot in front of a QB-needy CLE...who happens to be followed by two QB-needy teams at 5 and 6. If DEN wants their guy, they will have to jump CLE. Same goes for the NYJ. With the Colts likely having a solid offer from those teams, CLE might be willing to use up some of their draft capital to ensure they get their QB. They will have a trade partner regardless. 

 

It's a win-win for the Colts. Even if Cousins goes to DEN (he's not going to CLE), there is still the NYJ. And looking at the draft picks, CLE and the NYJ make the most sense as trade partners because they have extra day two picks and would still allow the Colts to essentially be picking in the "top 3" of the non-QBs. 

 

The only thing that can screw this up is something I won't even mention. 

 

 

[#12.]

6 hours ago, DraftMaster said:

But look at this stat:

Andrew Luck is undefeated (25-0) when the Colts allow 19 points or less in his NFL career

 

On the surface that sounds significant, but I'm not sure how much it means.  In recent years, 19 or less would place a defense top 5.  So if you had a top 5 defense and that defense gave up 19 or less in every game, Luck would win them all... but 19 is an average.  Even a top 5 defense is giving up 19+ in a high number of it's games.

[Smonroe]

5 hours ago, #12. said:

 

On the surface that sounds significant, but I'm not sure how much it means.  In recent years, 19 or less would place a defense top 5.  So if you had a top 5 defense and that defense gave up 19 or less in every game, Luck would win them all... but 19 is an average.  Even a top 5 defense is giving up 19+ in a high number of it's games.

 

 I think the point was that with a good defense, Luck won't have to put up big numbers.

 

They're saying we should draft a defensive impact player before a RB.  Which is probably smart. 

 

But don't we all want that shiny Corvette, even though there's a leak in the roof? 

[DraftMaster]

12 hours ago, aaron11 said:

what other teams run their offense like the patriots?  

What if we got McDaniels?

[Rally5]

15 hours ago, DraftMaster said:

I'll let this article from Chris Shepherd explain. These RB's have not contributed in ways that you think they have:

https://www.stampedeblue.com/2017/12/28/16801912/psa-like-it-or-not-the-draft-is-about-value-and-other-reasons-not-to-draft-a-rb-early

 

Also PFF ranks Fournette 24th among NFL HB's:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/nfl/players/leonard-fournette/11759

 

Leonard Fournette averaged 3.9 YPC in 2017.

Dion Lewis averages 5.0 YPC and he could be a free agent this year. The Colts should get him if they can at a thrifty price. I get it that Barkley is good but even Todd Gurley had a sophomore slump. Frank Gore's longevity is exception, not rule.

 

Some Dion Lewis highlights to chew on:

 

THANK YOU!