Jump to content
Indianapolis Colts
Conversations are moderated for civility. We ask that you please stay on topic. For more info, see our Community Guidelines ×
Indianapolis Colts Fan Forum
Enter To Win 2 Tickets to Steelers @ Colts Sun 09/29 | 1:00 PM EDT

Chuck Pagano ranks 134th out of 144 coaches since 1989 on 4th down aggressiveness.

Dustin

By Dustin
in Colts Football

 Share

Recommended Posts

Carlos Danger Practice Squad

Carlos Danger

Posted
Posted

Not really sure what to make of this stat... It didn't seem that way to me, but I guess numbers don't lie. 

 

Aggressiveness is one of those words I just started noticing a few years ago. It just sounds wrong, like the person is trying to say "aggression," but I guess it's just me because it is apparently a real and widely accepted word... Just a semantic mini-rant. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Gavin Walk On

Gavin

Posted
Posted

Without more context that's a stat without much meaning. How many of those 4th downs were on the wrong side of the 50? How many of those 4th downs were in enemy territory. Its not smart to go for it on 4th down on the wrong side of the 50 unless its a must do situation. I'd also rather have Vinny's nearly automatic 3 points than 0.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Superman Ring of Honor

Superman

Posted
Posted

Pagano opened up on 4th down in 2014 after being too conservative in 2013 (we all remember the decision in the playoff game against the Pats). The Colts went from 3/10 on 4th down in 2013 to 6/15 in 2014. That's a 33% increase in attempts and a 10% increase in success rate. And don't forget Dewey McDonald's drop in the Cowboys game...

 

Last year, the Colts were 7/13 on 4th down. That's with Luck out for 9 games.

 

Of course, FO's stat is a lot more involved than this. Here are the findings based on 2014 only: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2015/aggressiveness-index-2014

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Superman Ring of Honor

Superman

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, lollygagger8 said:

Did this help, or hurt his ranking? 

 

Colts-formation-trick-10-18-15.png

 

I don't think it counts. FO's stat doesn't factor in success rate. And that's not a situation that FO would say a coach "should" go for it -- not 4th and 2 or less, and not between the opponent's 31-37 yard lines.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Gavin Walk On

Gavin

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Jason_S said:

 

still waiting for you to post something original :D 

While true to your statement I am pretty well burnt out on the slogans used and every year motivational tactics. "Build the Monster", "Decide", "Hoist it". Motivational tactics and slogans are great of course but they begin to lose their luster when overused

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Buck Showalter Walk On

Buck Showalter

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Gavin said:

Without more context that's a stat without much meaning. How many of those 4th downs were on the wrong side of the 50? How many of those 4th downs were in enemy territory. Its not smart to go for it on 4th down on the wrong side of the 50 unless its a must do situation. I'd also rather have Vinny's nearly automatic 3 points than 0.

You could probably also factor in strength, or in the Colts case, lack of run game into the equation as well

Link to comment
Share on other sites
21isSuperman Walk On

21isSuperman

Posted
Posted

I think this is too broad of a statistic to be used to analyze something.  I'd rather see something like what his aggressiveness is on 4th-and-short.  If your offense constantly puts you in 4th and 8 or 4th and 9 situations (be it because of an inept offense, penalties pulling you back, whatever the case), it doesn't make sense to go for it in the name of aggressiveness.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
bradgt04 Walk On

bradgt04

Posted
Posted

I am no coach nor pretend to be one but what does this stat even mean? He could easily be tied with 105 different coaches in the same category.  And when you see dam near 95% (I have no facts to back that percentage up) of teams punt on fourth down it makes this stat seem irrelevant 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
WoolMagnet Active Roster

WoolMagnet

Posted
Posted

This stat means NOTHING without details (as do most stats)

he's not an OC.  Pags isnt making all those calls.  

No running game, Luck on sideline, what side of 50 yard line, current score of the game, OL play, etc.

more details are needed.

you can make stats look any way you want really.  Numbers are a funny thing.  They can tell you a world of information or they can be severely misleading.

personally, having experience in advanced mathmatics and statistics (engineering), input NO WEIGHT in this without more info.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Gavin Walk On

Gavin

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, Buck Showalter said:

You could probably also factor in strength, or in the Colts case, lack of run game into the equation as well

Getting that run game at the middle of the pack level would open so much for the team, It wont fix everything but it would help cover up some other holes

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Gavin Walk On

Gavin

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, WoolMagnet said:

Wow, Pagano has about the same winning % as Belichick without the ****.

haha

Prior to last years 8-8 record Pagano 68.7 win %. To me however wins don't determine how good a coach is. Even great coaches can have bad records with inferior talent. I mean I know wins and losses matter when judging a football coach of course but its not the top of the list for me. For instance I think Bill B is a way better coach then Pagano currently is. Does that mean Pagano is not a good coach? No but Bill has developed into a football genius of sorts with his knowledge of the game and his ability to put players in the right place to get the most out of the talent they have.

 

Then you have his ability to recall plays from years ago that he either ran himself or that he read about and teach it in a way so that at times his players can execute said play flawlessly

 

None of this is to say Pagano is not a good coach or hasn't been improving but the win/loss record only tells a small amount of the story

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Superman Ring of Honor

Superman

Posted
Posted
55 minutes ago, WoolMagnet said:

Wow, Pagano has about the same winning % as Belichick without the ****.

haha

 

Belichick was 41-55 in his first six years. If you just take his 16 years with the Patriots, Belichick has a .730 winning percentage.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
WoolMagnet Active Roster

WoolMagnet

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Belichick was 41-55 in his first six years. If you just take his 16 years with the Patriots, Belichick has a .730 winning percentage.

I really wasnt comparing them. I was surprised the winning % was so similar. So much goes into that i agree. And we Colt fans know the difference between reg season % and post season %.

as far as Belichek, i'm convinced theres more to their winning in NE besides good coaching.  Heck, the league has proved that NUMEROUS times. Deflate-gate not withstanding.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
21isSuperman Walk On

21isSuperman

Posted
Posted

In addition to the above responses, having arguably the best punter and kicker in the league makes it a little easier to kick the ball on 4th down.  McAfee has shown he can be a coffin corner punter and Vinny is as automatic as they come.  If you're looking at going for it on 4th and 4, or punting to pin them within their own 10, punting it may not be a bad idea

Link to comment
Share on other sites
WoolMagnet Active Roster

WoolMagnet

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, 21isSuperman said:

In addition to the above responses, having arguably the best punter and kicker in the league makes it a little easier to kick the ball on 4th down.  McAfee has shown he can be a coffin corner punter and Vinny is as automatic as they come.  If you're looking at going for it on 4th and 4, or punting to pin them within their own 10, punting it may not be a bad idea

Additionally, if we are trying their get Andrew to be smarter with the ball and protect it, it somewhat contradicts that if we get overly aggressive on 4th downs. 

I think it can subconsciously create overly aggressive (forcing throws and running) thoughts in Andrews mind.

you somewhat have to practice what you preach,'and be smart with the ball.  Going on 4th down automatically infuses more "chance taking" into the play,imo.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
BOTT Walk On

BOTT

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, 21isSuperman said:

In addition to the above responses, having arguably the best punter and kicker in the league makes it a little easier to kick the ball on 4th down.  McAfee has shown he can be a coffin corner punter and Vinny is as automatic as they come.  If you're looking at going for it on 4th and 4, or punting to pin them within their own 10, punting it may not be a bad idea

Not really.  Chuck is just conservative by nature.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
BOTT Walk On

BOTT

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, 21isSuperman said:

Yes, but using a ranking of 134/144 without providing more details or context doesn't really help that argument.

  Just reaffirms the obvious....not the people will ever admit it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Dustin Walk On

Dustin

Posted
  • Author
Posted
On 6/2/2016 at 6:14 PM, WoolMagnet said:

Pags isnt making all those calls.  

 

Yes he is. The HC always makes the call whether to go on it on 4th down or not. If you have proof that Pep Hamilton decided when to go for it on 4th down, id love to see it, 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
crazycolt1 Ring of Honor

crazycolt1

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Dustin said:

 

Yes he is. The HC always makes the call whether to go on it on 4th down or not. If you have proof that Pep Hamilton decided when to go for it on 4th down, id love to see it, 

Boomstick has the clearance to go for it on 4th down from a punt formation. So you are wrong if you think the call is only called by the head coach.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
NewColtsFan Ring of Honor

NewColtsFan

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, crazycolt1 said:

Boomstick has the clearance to go for it on 4th down from a punt formation. So you are wrong if you think the call is only called by the head coach.

 

When Broomstick runs or throws on a 4th down,  that call comes from the Head Coach.

 

Always.

 

That decision was not made by the special teams coach.     If Boom is given the green light to use his best judgement,   that green light comes from the HC.

 

Always.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
NewColtsFan Ring of Honor

NewColtsFan

Posted
Posted
On June 2, 2016 at 4:57 PM, Superman said:

 

Belichick was 41-55 in his first six years. If you just take his 16 years with the Patriots, Belichick has a .730 winning percentage.

 

Yours is a small post (by size)  but an important post (by content) and I hope it is viewed by as many fans here as possible.

 

6 years and 14 games under 500.      Coaches don't last that long with that kind of record.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share
Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...