Off-season 2020 trade

[runthepost]

I’m going back in the pass and looking at some moves we did a few seasons ago. Let’s say the colts don’t trade for Buckner and don’t sign Rivers. Instead we make a trade for our QB after the season we had with Jacoby. Would you make this trade?

[NewColtsFan]

2 hours ago, runthepost said:

I’m going back in the pass and looking at some moves we did a few seasons ago. Let’s say the colts don’t trade for Buckner and don’t sign Rivers. Instead we make a trade for our QB after the season we had with Jacoby. Would you make this trade?

I think you meant Paye and not Payne, I had to do a double take.   But with the benefit of hindsight, yes, I would’ve done that deal for Herbert, but not for Tua. 
 

But the key to that is…..   with the benefit of hindsight.    

[crazycolt1]

Sorry, respectfuly I don’t use hindsight to judge.  Should haves,  would haves or could haves really serves no purpose. 

[csmopar]

2 hours ago, crazycolt1 said:

Sorry, respectfuly I don’t use hindsight to judge.  Should haves,  would haves or could haves really serves no purpose. 

Yep. 

[DougDew]

5 hours ago, crazycolt1 said:

Sorry, respectfuly I don’t use hindsight to judge.  Should haves,  would haves or could haves really serves no purpose. 

Sure they do.  They help to analyze mistakes that were made, so that you don't make them again when faced with the same situation.  Or have confidence in someone else going forward. 

 

On this forum, it also helps to judge the mistakes a GM makes, or have confidence in them going forward...oops...but we're not supposed to do that here. 

[crazycolt1]

9 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Sure they do.  They help to analyze mistakes that were made, so that you don't make them again when faced with the same situation.  Or have confidence in someone else going forward. 

 

On this forum, it also helps to judge the mistakes a GM makes, or have confidence in them going forward...oops...but we're not supposed to do that here. 

The past is the past. The draft crew will put together a draft board.  Then they go to work. 

 

[DougDew]

3 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

The past is the past. The draft crew will put together a draft board.  Then they go to work. 

 

Agree for the most part.  The past is past in that it can't be changed, but its not irrelevant and shouldn't be ignored when putting together the next draft board, IMO.

[chad72]

The thing about draft picks is if you don’t commit beyond next year’s picks, you are bound to get more every year. But with FA and salary cap, commitments have to be made 4 to 5 years and that’s why it’s better to be aggressive in the draft because the downside of swinging and missing can soon be overcome faster than in FA typically.

[Solid84]

I would have done it even without knowing if Herbert would turn out good. QB is the most important position on a football team and a big reason we are where we are is because we haven't figured out that position.

[DougDew]

20 minutes ago, Solid84 said:

I would have done it even without knowing if Herbert would turn out good. QB is the most important position on a football team and a big reason we are where we are is because we haven't figured out that position.

Agree.  You go by your predraft analysis.  If sound predraft analysis tells you that Herbert had a great chance at being a successful QB...combined with known facts like footspeed and height that can't be coached...then "hindsight" is a valuable tool to judge if you made the right decisions.  

 

Its not really hindsight to now conclude that Herbert would have more impact on a team than Buckner.  Probably should have known that at the time.  Using "hindsight" helps us prove that.

 

(I'm putting hindsight in quotes because the definition of hindsight is based on an assumption that you did not know what would unfold at the time.  That's essentially the issue....what you should have known.  When drafting, they need to always try to know how things will unfold.  Saying "we didn't know" is an excuse and is fundamentally contrary to what their job is when picking players.)

[crazycolt1]

52 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Agree for the most part.  The past is past in that it can't be changed, but its not irrelevant and shouldn't be ignored when putting together the next draft board, IMO.

Think about it. The misses in the past can't effect what they are working on for the future.  They can't do nothin but work the board. 

[DougDew]

Just now, crazycolt1 said:

Think about it. The misses in the past can't effect what they are working on for the future.  They can't do nothin but work the board. 

The miss itself is a sunk cost that can't be undone,  They need to know if the miss was the result of a flawed process, which certainly does effect how they form the current board,

[crazycolt1]

1 minute ago, DougDew said:

The miss itself is a sunk cost that can't be undone,  They need to know if the miss was the result of a flawed process, which certainly does effect how they form the current board,

It's all speculation, so it's inherently flawed. There is nothing you can do but work the board. Make and listen to trade offers. 

[NorthernColt]

These hindsight threads are pointless. I don't understand.

[DougDew]

7 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

It's all speculation, so it's inherently flawed. There is nothing you can do but work the board. Make and listen to trade offers. 

Its speculation if they are ignorant.   Most people who do things for a living get paid well because they have knowledge and skills that elevate them beyond ignorant to some level. 

 

Hobbyists who devote a lot of their spare time to this stuff are not ignorant either.  Personally, I'm pretty ignorant about it because I don't devote a lot of time to it.  But I wouldn't want to judge others as to how much they don't know about where players should be drafted.

 

Evaluating college players isn't like playing the Bitcoin market.

[OLD FAN MAN]

1 hour ago, DougDew said:

Agree for the most part.  The past is past in that it can't be changed, but its not irrelevant and shouldn't be ignored when putting together the next draft board, IMO.

ballard was afraid to swing and miss because of job security so he took the called strike and blamed it on the umpire and frank

[chad72]

My only other question would be if we were doing a sign and trade with the 49ers, I’d rather have given up a current and future 2nd knowing they had Armstead to extend as well. A first rounder seemed a steep price to pay with question marks about QB after the 2019 season. A high first rounder is what they would have been looking for and two 2nd rounders might have worked.

But it also meant that we were set on going down the route of vet QBs instead of taking the draft approach because if we didn’t plan on Rivers, we’d have saved the first rounder.

 

That was a sign of the beginning of the band aid approach of the current regime and kicking the can down the road.

[OLD FAN MAN]

10 minutes ago, NorthernColt said:

These hindsight threads are pointless. I don't understand.

we look at history so that we dont repeat the same mistakes and make better decisions, if we turn a blind eye to history we learn nothing from our mistakes

[crazycolt1]

12 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Its speculation if they are ignorant.   Most people who do things for a living get paid well because they have knowledge and skills that elevate them beyond ignorant to some level. 

 

Hobbyists who devote a lot of their spare time to this stuff are not ignorant either.  Personally, I'm pretty ignorant about it because I don't devote a lot of time to it.  But I wouldn't want to judge others as to how much they don't know about where players should be drafted.

 

Evaluating college players isn't like playing the Bitcoin market.

Exactly what are you even talking about? You are way over thinking this stuff.

[Indianapolis-Colts-Fan]

I’m not that impressed with Herbert. 

[GRUMPY OLD MAN]

3 minutes ago, Indianapolis-Colts-Fan said:

I’m not that impressed with Herbert. 

I AM , he is better than any of ballards qbs

[DougDew]

8 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

Exactly what are you even talking about? You are way over thinking this stuff.

Actually, the problem I see is that you are way UNDER thinking this stuff.

 

.I'm about to end the back and forth.....if you don't ask a question.

 

 

[DougDew]

1 hour ago, chad72 said:

The thing about draft picks is if you don’t commit beyond next year’s picks, you are bound to get more every year. But with FA and salary cap, commitments have to be made 4 to 5 years and that’s why it’s better to be aggressive in the draft because the downside of swinging and missing can soon be overcome faster than in FA typically.

And if you swing and miss badly enough, you probably get higher picks next year than you did this year, making recovery quicker.

[BlackTiger]

I wanted us to do this at the time, the lions said they wanted to trade back too

 

Wasted a first on Carson anyway 

[chad72]

2 minutes ago, DougDew said:

And if you swing and miss badly enough, you probably get higher picks next year than you did this year, making recovery quicker.

 

Plus, going with a rookie QB comes with tempered expectations for a year or two before progress needs to be shown. The 2-14 season for the Bengals in 2019 got them Joe Burrow and Tee Higgins back to back in 2020, and the 4-11-1 2020 season got them JaMarr Chase in 2021 and lo behold, they went to the SB with FA additions in 2021 for pass rush and TBD in 2022 with OL FA additions. So draft equity comes with going for a rookie QB plus rookie wage scales. 

[GRUMPY OLD MAN]

40 minutes ago, DougDew said:

The miss itself is a sunk cost that can't be undone,  They need to know if the miss was the result of a flawed process, which certainly does effect how they form the current board,

history call tell us that the person who made the wrong decision should not be retained for the future because of his bad judgement

[DougDew]

1 minute ago, DEFENSE said:

history call tell us that the person who made the wrong decision should not be retained for the future because of his bad judgement

I'm actually a forgiving person and an optimist by nature.  I think that GMs on their first GM gig can learn from their mistakes.

 

If Ballard passes on a QB...which is fine with me if they are not worthy....I hope to gawd he doesn't pick that 32 inch armed OT/G from Northwestern....Skoronski....with the top 6 pick.   We have a glaring hole at RG, and that would be such a Ballard pick if he hasn't learned from his mistakes.  JMO.

[2006Coltsbestever]

Hindsight threads are MEH:

 

1. In hindsight, the Chargers should have taken Randy Moss #2 in 1998 instead of Ryan Leaf once we picked Peyton.

 

2. In hindsight, the 49ers should have taken Aaron Rodgers #1 in 2005 instead of Alex Smith.

 

3. In hindsight, the Bears should have taken Patrick Mahomes #2 in 2017 instead of trading up to draft Mitch Trubisky.

 

4. In Hindsight, we should have taken Josh Allen #6 in 2018 just in case Luck's shoulder was never the same.

 

5. In hindsight, I am sure the Raiders would not have touched JaMarcus Russell with a 10 foot pole after the way he played but drafted him #1 - a supposed can't miss QB.

 

I can go on and on. We can't nor can other teams dwell on the past, it is about the future at this point.

 

By the way, IMO Justin Herbert is good but he isn't a top 5 QB in today's league. Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Hurts, and Rodgers are all better.

[throwing BBZ]

11 hours ago, runthepost said:

I’m going back in the pass and looking at some moves we did a few seasons ago. Let’s say the colts don’t trade for Buckner and don’t sign Rivers. Instead we make a trade for our QB after the season we had with Jacoby. Would you make this trade?

 

  I remember a considerable amount of doubt regarding Herbert.

  Considering the Chargers didn't have that doubt and were "all in" to get their QB, it is irrelevant. Go ahead and fantasize on how much more it would have taken to get their pic. Yawn!

[GRUMPY OLD MAN]

1 minute ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Hindsight threads are MEH:

 

1. In hindsight, the Chargers should have taken Randy Moss #2 in 1998 instead of Ryan Leaf once we picked Peyton.

 

2. In hindsight, the 49ers should have taken Aaron Rodgers #1 in 2005 instead of Alex Smith.

 

3. In hindsight, the Bears should have taken Patrick Mahomes #2 in 2017 instead of trading up to draft Mitch Trubisky.

 

4. In Hindsight, we should have taken Josh Allen #6 in 2018 just in case Luck's shoulder was never the same.

 

5. In hindsight, I am sure the Raiders would not have touched JaMarcus Russell with a 10 foot pole after the way he played but drafted him #1 - a supposed can't miss QB.

 

I can go on and on. We can't nor can other teams dwell on the past, it is about the future at this point.

 

By the way, IMO Justin Herbert is good but he isn't a top 5 QB in today's league. Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Hurts, and Rodgers are all better.

if we ignore our previous mistakes we learn nothing and may do the same thing again. history is a hard lesson and teacher

[GRUMPY OLD MAN]

1 minute ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

  I remember a considerable amount of doubt regarding Herbert.

  Considering the Chargers didn't have that doubt and were "all in" to get their QB, it is irrelevant. Go ahead and fantasize on how much more it would have taken to get their pic. Yawn!

the chargers have better talent at picking draft picks than we do , ballards roster is not as good as theirs

[2006Coltsbestever]

3 minutes ago, DEFENSE said:

if we ignore our previous mistakes we learn nothing and may do the same thing again. history is a hard lesson and teacher

I think we take a QB this year, if Stroud is there at #5.

[2006Coltsbestever]

Imagine how bad the hindsight would have been had we took Leaf instead of Peyton 

[DougDew]

17 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Hindsight threads are MEH:

 

1. In hindsight, the Chargers should have taken Randy Moss #2 in 1998 instead of Ryan Leaf once we picked Peyton.

 

2. In hindsight, the 49ers should have taken Aaron Rodgers #1 in 2005 instead of Alex Smith.

 

3. In hindsight, the Bears should have taken Patrick Mahomes #2 in 2017 instead of trading up to draft Mitch Trubisky.

 

4. In Hindsight, we should have taken Josh Allen #6 in 2018 just in case Luck's shoulder was never the same.

 

5. In hindsight, I am sure the Raiders would not have touched JaMarcus Russell with a 10 foot pole after the way he played but drafted him #1 - a supposed can't miss QB.

In hindsight, maybe the GMs who made those decisions should have never been a GM.   All of them, except Ballard, got fired.

[Mitch Connors]

25 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Hindsight threads are MEH:

 

1. In hindsight, the Chargers should have taken Randy Moss #2 in 1998 instead of Ryan Leaf once we picked Peyton.

 

2. In hindsight, the 49ers should have taken Aaron Rodgers #1 in 2005 instead of Alex Smith.

 

3. In hindsight, the Bears should have taken Patrick Mahomes #2 in 2017 instead of trading up to draft Mitch Trubisky.

 

4. In Hindsight, we should have taken Josh Allen #6 in 2018 just in case Luck's shoulder was never the same.

 

5. In hindsight, I am sure the Raiders would not have touched JaMarcus Russell with a 10 foot pole after the way he played but drafted him #1 - a supposed can't miss QB.

 

I can go on and on. We can't nor can other teams dwell on the past, it is about the future at this point.

 

By the way, IMO Justin Herbert is good but he isn't a top 5 QB in today's league. Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Hurts, and Rodgers are all better.

I don't think anyone is arguing that you can't change the past, the argument is about what can you learn from the past (hindsight).

 

Is there value for the 49ers to go back and look at the predraft process that led them to draft Alex Smith over Aaron Rodgers and see if they missed anything that would have changed their decision to pass on Rodgers? Of course they should and, frankly, if they aren't they shouldnt be evaluating talent on any level for any organization. The same applies here. Should the Colts be looking at past drafts of QB's to find any commonality in busts? Costs of trading up? Cost of passing on a QB? All of that is shaped by hindsight but that doesnt change how valuable the process is. 

[throwing BBZ]

34 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Hindsight threads are MEH:

 

1. In hindsight, the Chargers should have taken Randy Moss #2 in 1998 instead of Ryan Leaf once we picked Peyton.

 

2. In hindsight, the 49ers should have taken Aaron Rodgers #1 in 2005 instead of Alex Smith.

 

3. In hindsight, the Bears should have taken Patrick Mahomes #2 in 2017 instead of trading up to draft Mitch Trubisky.

 

4. In Hindsight, we should have taken Josh Allen #6 in 2018 just in case Luck's shoulder was never the same.

 

5. In hindsight, I am sure the Raiders would not have touched JaMarcus Russell with a 10 foot pole after the way he played but drafted him #1 - a supposed can't miss QB.

 

I can go on and on. We can't nor can other teams dwell on the past, it is about the future at this point.

 

By the way, IMO Justin Herbert is good but he isn't a top 5 QB in today's league. Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Hurts, and Rodgers are all better.

 

24 YEAR OLD Herbert is going to pass for almost 5,000 yards this season with his 2 superb receivers missing a number of games.

 Mahommes age 27

 Burrows 26

  Would Philly be as good or better with him? Everyone has an OPINION.

 

 So speculation is fun, and if Herbert never gets THAT team around him he could go 15 years like Elway did, before he finally gets THAT Team. Or not.

  Many here remember Mannings 100 flutter ball INT's his first five years, his 7 one and dones in the Playoffs, and his D and running game carrying him to his beating the great Rex Grossman for his ONLY Colts SB WIN.

 If i had to win a playoff game today it's not a slam dunk that i would take Rodgers or Hurts over Herbert. JMO

 When Herbert is say 26, and maybe nipping on the heels of Mahommes, Allen, and Burrow, well, he would be a heckuva QB, CERTAINLY SB worthy.

 There are Epic Playoff and SB Games in the NFL's future. Go Colts!

[2006Coltsbestever]

1 minute ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

24 YEAR OLD Herbert is going to pass for almost 5,000 yards this season with his 2 superb receivers missing a number of games.

 Mahommes age 27

 Burrows 26

  Would Philly be as good or better with him? Everyone has an OPINION.

 

 So speculation is fun, and if Herbert never gets THAT team around him he could go 15 years like Elway did, before he finally gets THAT Team. Or not.

  Many here remember Mannings 100 flutter ball INT's his first five years, his 7 one and dones in the Playoffs, and his D and running game carrying him to his beating the great Rex Grossman for his ONLY Colts SB WIN.

 If i had to win a playoff game today it's not a slam dunk that i would take Rodgers or Hurts over Herbert. JMO

 When Herbert is say 26, and maybe nipping on the heels of Mahommes, Allen, and Burrow, well, he would a heckuva QB, CERTAINLY SB worthy.

 There are Epic Playoff and SB Games in the NFL's future. Go Colts!

The thing about hindsight is, it is not even like we passed on Herbert to take someone else. We picked 13th that year. Miami had Herbert at #5 if they wanted him and they took Tua instead for example. Chargers had the #6 pick and needed a QB. If we had a pick and passed on a QB that would be much different/mistake wise. Like the Bears taking Trubisky at #2 instead of Mahomes. The year we had the 13th pick, we could have drafted Jordan Love who IMO isn't even that good.

[Mackrel829]

Anyone who voted no is off their rocker lol.

 

Herbert is worth three first rounders and more.

[2006Coltsbestever]

3 minutes ago, Mackrel829 said:

Anyone who voted no is off their rocker lol.

 

Herbert is worth three first rounders and more.

In hindsight maybe, when Herbert was coming out, there were many in here that thought he had a chance to be good but many were skeptical. In hindsight, I can say Pat Mahomes is worth 4 1st rounders, when he 1st came out and If I were to say that, I would have been laughed off the board.

[throwing BBZ]

6 minutes ago, Mitch Connors said:

I don't think anyone is arguing that you can't change the past, the argument is about what can you learn from the past (hindsight).

 

Is there value for the 49ers to go back and look at the predraft process that led them to draft Alex Smith over Aaron Rodgers and see if they missed anything that would have changed their decision to pass on Rodgers? Of course they should and, frankly, if they aren't they shouldnt be evaluating talent on any level for any organization. The same applies here. Should the Colts be looking at past drafts of QB's to find any commonality in busts? Costs of trading up? Cost of passing on a QB? All of that is shaped by hindsight but that doesnt change how valuable the process is. 

 

 San Fran could take a hard look at Rodgers sitting his ___ on the bench three years behind Favre, the coaches he had, and try to better understand his pschological profile, then throw all that ___ in their think tank, create a few committees to review it, and have them put out a paper on where they went wrong.

 Yeah, i'm sure there is guy somewhere that was part of their draft process that still frequently sits at some bar telling anyone who will listen that "he told them Rodgers, Rodgers, Rosebud". 

  I remember watching tape of Allen pre-draft thinking he was interesting, but looked like a wild cowboy. I gave no thought to taking him over a future Hall of Fame G for our team. Evaluate THAT!