Off-season 2020 trade

[philba101]

If Hindsight is 2020 this is an easy draft:

1. Trade the 13th pick for the 22nd pick and the 52nd pick.

2. Draft Justin Jefferson at #22

3. Draft Michael Pittman at #34

4. Draft Jonathan Taylor at #41

5. Draft Jalen Hurts at #52 (5th QB in this draft)-Hint..hint...Chris Ballard

Draft a left tackle and a play-making TE in 2021 and you are good to go.

QB carousel ends, franchise is changed forever. 

[chad72]

52 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I think we take a QB this year, if Stroud is there at #5.

 

Stroud and Young will be going 1 or 2 in some order or fashion.

 

We will be left with Levis or Richardson for #5, unless we pull off a trade for one of the above 2. I'd say trade back and see which of those 2 are still available with draft equity gained and work your offense around them and provide them all the support.

 

Or just trade for Jordan Love if you have scouted him very well and since we get him only for 2 years, give up just the low 2nd rounder and there is a good chance the Packers take it.

[throwing BBZ]

15 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

The thing about hindsight is, it is not even like we passed on Herbert to take someone else. We picked 13th that year. Miami had Herbert at #5 if they wanted him and they took Tua instead for example. Chargers had the #6 pick and needed a QB. If we had a pick and passed on a QB that would be much different/mistake wise. Like the Bears taking Trubisky at #2 instead of Mahomes. The year we had the 13th pick, we could have drafted Jordan Love who IMO isn't even that good.

 

  And yet Love has a decent probability of being ready now to play some very high level ball. The guy had tools, he needed pro training to polish his techniques and to prepare his mental game.

 MAYBE we trade for him (not draft picks) and Hacket is our OC. 

OK thats it, Demeco Ryans our HC, and those two leading our Offense. 

[Myles]

2 hours ago, Solid84 said:

I would have done it even without knowing if Herbert would turn out good. QB is the most important position on a football team and a big reason we are where we are is because we haven't figured out that position.

So I assume that you would have done the same for Tua since he was drafted 1 spot ahead of Herbert?

Not sure if the Colts would be in better shape if they did that.  

[DougDew]

40 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

The thing about hindsight is, it is not even like we passed on Herbert to take someone else. We picked 13th that year. Miami had Herbert at #5 if they wanted him and they took Tua instead for example. Chargers had the #6 pick and needed a QB. If we had a pick and passed on a QB that would be much different/mistake wise. Like the Bears taking Trubisky at #2 instead of Mahomes. The year we had the 13th pick, we could have drafted Jordan Love who IMO isn't even that good.

Hindsight tells me that I don't care that we didn't trade for Tua or didn't pick Love...those two past "what ifs" are made irrelevant by using hindsight.

 

The third question remains, why didn't we trade up for Herbert?   (I'm not saying that anybody here has the answer) 

[Superman]

I don't even think it would have taken that much to move up. But to be clear, we would have needed to get to #4, ahead of Miami, if we wanted to get Herbert. The Chargers obviously wanted Herbert, Miami wanted Tua, so neither of them are trading with us. This probably would have cost us either Pittman/Taylor + Paye. 

 

And yes, even without using hindsight, that would have been the way to go. Check the archives, many people on this board felt that we needed to draft a QB in 2020, and many people also felt Herbert should be the guy. Everyone remembers the chatter about Jordan Love, but I think that's mostly because we traded #13 for Buckner so early, so we knew we didn't have a chance at the top three QBs that year. Love was considered a project guy who could sit behind Rivers for however long.

 

It's also important to remember that there was some doubt about Herbert, mostly about intangibles. I personally didn't agree with those criticisms, I thought they were nonsense at the time, and I think the past three seasons have shown that to be true. (Some also questioned whether Herbert could/would use his legs as a weapon; Oregon's bowl game that year put those doubts to rest.)

 

Last thing, 2020 was a weird year, obviously. I think the Colts felt like they had a chance to compete for a SB that year, if they had a good enough QB. So they signed Rivers, traded for Buckner, and felt like they had a team that was ready to go. We could say they should have gone even harder, but at that time no one knew what was going to happen with the 2021 salary cap, or the 2020 revenues, so being disciplined made the most sense that year. 

 

Where hindsight comes into the picture is that no one really expected Rivers to be one and done. So stocking up around him was defensible. 

 

But the absolute best move would have been to move up in that year's draft and get one of the top three QBs. And my favorite at the time was Herbert, who went third. That should have been the decision, IMO. And again, I felt that way at the time.

[stitches]

There were plenty of people who wanted us to move up for QB in that draft without the hindsight. Now, the QB choice itself is more speculative. But yeah... I've pretty much wanted us to go for QB in the draft every single year after Luck retired. On a philosophical level, without taking into account the talent in those drafts, that was the best course of action every time you find yourself without a franchise QB in the building. 

 

24 minutes ago, Superman said:

I don't even think it would have taken that much to move up. But to be clear, we would have needed to get to #4, ahead of Miami, if we wanted to get Herbert. The Chargers obviously wanted Herbert, Miami wanted Tua, so neither of them are trading with us. This probably would have cost us either Pittman/Taylor + Paye. 

 

Yeah... IMO it would have essentially taken an extra second and a 1st. Or 1st and a 3d or something... 

 

24 minutes ago, Superman said:

And yes, even without using hindsight, that would have been the way to go. Check the archives, many people on this board felt that we needed to draft a QB in 2020, and many people also felt Herbert should be the guy. Everyone remembers the chatter about Jordan Love, but I think that's mostly because we traded #13 for Buckner so early, so we knew we didn't have a chance at the top three QBs that year. Love was considered a project guy who could sit behind Rivers for however long.

Yep. I remember you specifically wanted Herbert. I liked all 3 with slight preference for Love over Herbert, but I was on the record that I would be good trading up for any of them at the time. 

 

24 minutes ago, Superman said:

It's also important to remember that there was some doubt about Herbert, mostly about intangibles. I personally didn't agree with those criticisms, I thought they were nonsense at the time, and I think the past three seasons have shown that to be true. (Some also questioned whether Herbert could/would use his legs as a weapon; Oregon's bowl game that year put those doubts to rest.)

Yeah, people thought Herbert was not a leader. That he's too quiet... too.... smart. Yep, that was a thing! I never understood that. If there is one position on the field I want the smartest guy for, it would be QB. There were some questions about the consistency of his accuracy and about his big play making ability because of the incredibly conservative offense Mario Cristobal was running. BTW that's the same reason I hated that Van * had to play under him this year. IMO he's super overrated coach with archaic system. He made Justin freaking Herbert look pedestrian. How do you do that? 

 

I wonder if the bowl game of Stroud would have similar role for answering the questions about his ability to playmake on the move. I heard some insane PFF stat today about Stroud - up until this game he had PFF grade in the 30s under pressure. In this game his grade under pressure was in the 80s. I still don't know how to process that and what to think about it. 

 

24 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Last thing, 2020 was a weird year, obviously. I think the Colts felt like they had a chance to compete for a SB that year, if they had a good enough QB. So they signed Rivers, traded for Buckner, and felt like they had a team that was ready to go. We could say they should have gone even harder, but at that time no one knew what was going to happen with the 2021 salary cap, or the 2020 revenues, so being disciplined made the most sense that year. 

I never quite felt we were ready to compete. Throughout all those years we always had a ton of holes at the most important positions in football and I never felt like this team was a legit contender. 

24 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Where hindsight comes into the picture is that no one really expected Rivers to be one and done. So stocking up around him was defensible. 

 

But the absolute best move would have been to move up in that year's draft and get one of the top three QBs. And my favorite at the time was Herbert, who went third. That should have been the decision, IMO. And again, I felt that way at the time.

Yep. I remember Herbert was your favorite at the time. Good call 

[Superman]

3 minutes ago, stitches said:

I wonder if the bowl game of Stroud would have similar role for answering the questions about his ability to playmake on the move. I heard some insane PFF stat today about Stroud - up until this game he had PFF grade in the 30s under pressure. In this game his grade under pressure was in the 80s. I still don't know how to process that and what to think about it. 

 

Yeah, the questions about Stroud vs pressure and outside the pocket are real. I don't know what to make of the big switch flip he pulled in the CFP game, but good for him either way. 

 

4 minutes ago, stitches said:

I never quite felt we were ready to compete. Throughout all those years we always had a ton of holes at the most important positions in football and I never felt like this team was a legit contender. 

 

I wasn't necessarily on board with that viewpoint, but I think the way they handled that offseason, and the way they talked about their approach, says a lot about how they felt about their chances. I think that was their expected timeline to start being more aggressive with player acquisition, as shown with the Buckner trade/contract, and the Castonzo one year deal. Luck retired and threw things off, but I think they hoped they could plug in a guy like Rivers and still maintain that timeline. Rhodes had a nice year, they hoped for more from Lewis and Turay, and Hilton and Campbell were hoped to be productive at WR.

 

I wasn't super enthusiastic about Rivers, but he did better than I expected. And looking back, he was much better than Wentz or Ryan, both of whom I expected to be upgrades. That was clearly the closest we've been since 2018.

[Mackrel829]

1 hour ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

In hindsight maybe, when Herbert was coming out, there were many in here that thought he had a chance to be good but many were skeptical. In hindsight, I can say Pat Mahomes is worth 4 1st rounders, when he 1st came out and If I were to say that, I would have been laughed off the board.

 

Of course, but we all currently have the benefit of hindsight. Anyone saying, at this point, that would have been a bad trade is crazy. I'd give up three firsts for him today without question and that's without the extra years on his rookie deal.

[stitches]

6 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Yeah, the questions about Stroud vs pressure and outside the pocket are real. I don't know what to make of the big switch flip he pulled in the CFP game, but good for him either way. 

 

 

I wasn't necessarily on board with that viewpoint, but I think the way they handled that offseason, and the way they talked about their approach, says a lot about how they felt about their chances. I think that was their expected timeline to start being more aggressive with player acquisition, as shown with the Buckner trade/contract, and the Castonzo one year deal. Luck retired and threw things off, but I think they hoped they could plug in a guy like Rivers and still maintain that timeline. Rhodes had a nice year, they hoped for more from Lewis and Turay, and Hilton and Campbell were hoped to be productive at WR.

 

I wasn't super enthusiastic about Rivers, but he did better than I expected. And looking back, he was much better than Wentz or Ryan, both of whom I expected to be upgrades. That was clearly the closest we've been since 2018.

Agree 2020 was our best year after Luck's retirement, but the bar is not too high when you consider the other 3 years. That was the last year we had AC and the last year our OL looked like a great unit. TY battled injuries and played injured for a lot of that year, Pittman was a rookie. We had serious lack of pass catching weapons. We had serious issues creating pass-rush. Yes, Rhodes played well, but Rock was pretty bad that year, I think TJ Carrie took his spot by the end of the year. You just cannot be this bad pass-rushing the QB and this bad at CB and have serious ambitions for contention. Sooner or later in the playoff you will get smoked by a better team. In a certain way IMO we overperformed expectations vs the Bills that year... and we still lost in the first round. 

[Solid84]

1 hour ago, Myles said:

So I assume that you would have done the same for Tua since he was drafted 1 spot ahead of Herbert?

Not sure if the Colts would be in better shape if they did that.  

Yes I would. It’s not a matter hindsight and whether or not Tua or Herbert would be the answer. It’s about starting the process of finding our future franchise QB. No team is going to be a contender without one and postponing that process does absolutely NOTHING for us. 

[Superman]

2 minutes ago, stitches said:

Agree 2020 was our best year after Luck's retirement, but the bar is not too high when you consider the other 3 years. That was the last year we had AC and the last year our OL looked like a great unit. TY battled injuries and played injured for a lot of that year, Pittman was a rookie. We had serious lack of pass catching weapons. We had serious issues creating pass-rush. Yes, Rhodes played well, but Rock was pretty bad that year, I think TJ Carrie took his spot by the end of the year. You just cannot be this bad pass-rushing the QB and this bad at CB and have serious ambitions for contention. Sooner or later in the playoff you will get smoked by a better team. In a certain way IMO we overperformed expectations vs the Bills that year... and we still lost in the first round. 

 

Yeah we know how it turned out. I'm just saying I think I see what were thinking before the season. I was not as enthusiastic.

[Superman]

1 hour ago, Myles said:

So I assume that you would have done the same for Tua since he was drafted 1 spot ahead of Herbert?

Not sure if the Colts would be in better shape if they did that.  

 

I wouldn't have, but that's because I didn't like Tua coming out. I felt Herbert and Burrow were much better prospects. I never spent a lot of time talking about Burrow because he was going #1 and we all knew it.

 

However, Tua has been really good this season, when he's not struggling with head injuries. Makes it clear that he had bad coaching his first two years (we already knew Flores wasn't his biggest fan), but also illustrates the value of putting an offensive minded HC in charge of the development of your young QB.

[DougDew]

1 hour ago, Superman said:

And yes, even without using hindsight, that would have been the way to go. Check the archives, many people on this board felt that we needed to draft a QB in 2020, and many people also felt Herbert should be the guy. Everyone remembers the chatter about Jordan Love, but I think that's mostly because we traded #13 for Buckner so early, so we knew we didn't have a chance at the top three QBs that year. Love was considered a project guy who could sit behind Rivers for however long.

Yes.  The early trade of pick 13 took the wind out the sails of trading up for a QB.  The discussion about Love was if we could trade up from mid second to get him, and of course Ballard didn't do that.

 

Herbert was the only QB I really liked....I was wrong about Burrow....but I landed on that opinion after we traded 13 so thinking about trading up from mid 2nd round for overall pick 3 or 4 was not even a thought.  And yes, having Rivers signed allows Ballard to use pick 13  for Buckner.

 

So, IMO, the question is why did the Colts sign Rivers instead of thinking of trading up from 13 to get Herbert?

 

Did Ballard, Irsay, and Frank think they were that close to a SB?  Or did they just not like Herbert and thought it was too expensive to trade up from 13, so they went with Rivers.

[Superman]

8 minutes ago, DougDew said:

So, IMO, the question is why did the Colts sign Rivers instead of thinking of trading up from 13 to get Herbert?

 

Did Ballard, Irsay, and Frank think they were that close to a SB?  Or did they just not like Herbert and thought it was too expensive to trade up from 13, so they went with Rivers.

 

To me, they thought they could compete in 2020 (and maybe 2021) with Rivers, and no doubt Reich's relationship was a major factor there. Same as it was for the Wentz acquisition... I wonder whether the Colts make either of those moves if Reich isn't the HC.

 

They could have had a very high opinion of Herbert but still felt like he was a year or two away from being ready to lead a playoff team. And since they had spent three years setting their trajectory, specifically toward 2019 and 2020 I think, they didn't want to abandon that timeline if they didn't have to. So they went with the veteran QB, and gave it a go. It's understandable and defensible, but wasn't my preference at the time.

 

Also, I don't think the cost of moving up to #4 would have been prohibitive. The Giants were openly begging someone to make an offer for the pick, and their GM at the time was a guy who was never big on trading back, so his public comments were noteworthy. Like stitches said, I think we give up #13 and maybe one of our two 2nd rounders, maybe have to add in a future 3rd or 4th, and we could have moved up to #4. JMO, we'll never know, maybe Dolphins or Chargers start a bidding war or move up to #2 or #3 ahead of us anyway. I doubt it, but the possibility exists. The surefire move is move up to #2, in which case you probably are giving up another first rounder.

[Myles]

22 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Yes.  The early trade of pick 13 took the wind out the sails of trading up for a QB.  The discussion about Love was if we could trade up from mid second to get him, and of course Ballard didn't do that.

 

Herbert was the only QB I really liked....I was wrong about Burrow....but I landed on that opinion after we traded 13 so thinking about trading up from mid 2nd round for overall pick 3 or 4 was not even a thought.  And yes, having Rivers signed allows Ballard to use pick 13  for Buckner.

 

So, IMO, the question is why did the Colts sign Rivers instead of thinking of trading up from 13 to get Herbert?

 

Did Ballard, Irsay, and Frank think they were that close to a SB?  Or did they just not like Herbert and thought it was too expensive to trade up from 13, so they went with Rivers.

They thought they were that close to being a contender.   The D-line needed help and we got a stud in Buckner.   All in all, it may have been Ballards best draft.

1st - Buckner

2nd - Pittman and Taylor

3rd - Blackmon

 

[DougDew]

33 minutes ago, Superman said:

To me, they thought they could compete in 2020 (and maybe 2021) with Rivers, and no doubt Reich's relationship was a major factor there. Same as it was for the Wentz acquisition... I wonder whether the Colts make either of those moves if Reich isn't the HC.

 

They could have had a very high opinion of Herbert but still felt like he was a year or two away from being ready to lead a playoff team. And since they had spent three years setting their trajectory, specifically toward 2019 and 2020 I think, they didn't want to abandon that timeline if they didn't have to. So they went with the veteran QB, and gave it a go. It's understandable and defensible, but wasn't my preference at the time.

 I think your are right, and it speaks to strategy more than immediate needs.  The goal should be to win the SB, not win the Division or to be a playoff team.   That is my issue.  Getting a QB like Herbert is a strategic move that doesn't come around often, and IMO, you don't sacrifice that just to have a couple of nice years getting into the playoffs.

 

If Irsay heard from Frank/Ballard that the roster was close enough to where Rivers or Wentz could lead them to the SB, somebody was blowing bubbles up Jimmy's *.  JMO of course.  As another has said, it seem like the FO over valued their roster. 

 

And I don't mind the Rivers, Wentz, Ryan trades, but it comes with a strategy that you are going to tread water while you look for your QB.  Ballard never made the investment in the QB after he signed the bridge.  Not that he had a lot of options, but the only swings he took were to invest in Eason and Sam, two guys that only had a prayer to be a starter.  Not hard enough swings, IMO.

 

33 minutes ago, Superman said:

Also, I don't think the cost of moving up to #4 would have been prohibitive. The Giants were openly begging someone to make an offer for the pick, and their GM at the time was a guy who was never big on trading back, so his public comments were noteworthy. Like stitches said, I think we give up #13 and maybe one of our two 2nd rounders, maybe have to add in a future 3rd or 4th, and we could have moved up to #4. JMO, we'll never know, maybe Dolphins or Chargers start a bidding war or move up to #2 or #3 ahead of us anyway. I doubt it, but the possibility exists. The surefire move is move up to #2, in which case you probably are giving up another first rounder.

Making the idea of sacrificing getting a franchise QB for a couple of years getting into the playoffs a really bad strategy.  And multi-year strategy is on the GM, unless the owner was making that sacrifice.

[Superman]

4 minutes ago, DougDew said:

And I don't mind the Rivers, Wentz, Ryan trades, but it comes with a strategy that you are going to tread water while you look for your QB.  Ballard never made the investment in the QB after he signed the bridge.  Not that he had a lot of options, but the only swings he took were to invest in Eason and Sam, two guys that only had a prayer to be a starter.  Not hard enough swings, IMO.

 

I agree with most of this -- state of the roster, overall strategy, etc. But I think they viewed Wentz as a long term piece, not a bridge player. Their hope was that he'd be our franchise guy for the next five years. And Ehlinger and Eason were meant to be developmental backups, not potential starters.

[DougDew]

44 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I agree with most of this -- state of the roster, overall strategy, etc. But I think they viewed Wentz as a long term piece, not a bridge player. Their hope was that he'd be our franchise guy for the next five years. And Ehlinger and Eason were meant to be developmental backups, not potential starters.

Agreed on Wentz, he was young enough to think he could stick around if he was good enough.  I guess it goes back to that year we're talking about we signed a 39 year old Rivers...but didn't/haven't follow it up with a proper investment in a young QB.  Even going back to the JB year.  I guess there was a thought that JB would take us to the SB?  If so, why only a two year deal.  

 

A two year deal for any QB suggests that you are still looking for one.

 

Even if we're sitting here with an underperforming Jordan Love as a two year starter and still looking for a top 5 QB, at least I could say the strategy was sound.  

[Myles]

Rivers was not a bad signing.   He played well for the Colts.

Record - 11-5

Completion % - 68%

Yards - 4169

TD's - 24

INT's - 11

Rating - 97

 

Even had a decent playoff game.  

[Stephen]

7 hours ago, DEFENSE said:

I AM , he is better than any of ballards qbs

To be fair ballard hasnt picked a qb in the first or second round yet. Herbert is ok but he not on Burrow,Allen, or Mahomes level