From former NFL GM Pat Kirwin...

[NewColtsFan]

 

He's the former GM of the Jets about 8-10 years ago....

 

He's also the expert voice on NFL radio's Moving the Chains.

 

He and his partner Jim Miller (former NFL QB) did the first of a number of mock drafts Friday....   and Kirwin's comment was that he doesn't see a single running back worthy of a first round pick (including Jacobs)  and here's the surprise.....

 

He doesn't see a single wide receiver worthy of a first round pick.    That stunned me.   In his view,  whoever are the top WR's,  they're just not that much better than the 2nd round guys.   So, they're not worth a 1st round pick to him.     I don't always agree with him,  and don't agree on this one,   but he's NOT given to saying outrageous things....    he's a pretty reasonable, sensible guy. 

 

My 4 top WR's are Metcalf,  Hollywood Brown,  Parris Campbell and AJ Brown.    I'm not sure those four will all be in the first round,  but I suspect 2-3 will be.

 

Just wanted to share here for the discussion....

 

[Caleb3502]

I'm not particularly high on Metcalf, but he will go in the first round after his combine performance.  I feel like we will see around 2 or 3 WRs go in Round 1 as you said, but I think Metcalf is the only one that is for sure going Round 1.  I could see AJ Brown, Marquise Brown, or Parris Campbell available for round 2, though I suspect at least 1 or 2 of them will be taken in the first. It's hard to say definitively which ones will be 1st rounders.   

[LockeDown]

After reading Greg Cosells evaluations of the top receives, I don’t want to spend a first round pick on a starting slot receiver.  Round 2 ?  Yes. 

[csmopar]

5 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

He's the former GM of the Jets about 8-10 years ago....

 

He's also the expert voice on NFL radio's Moving the Chains.

 

He and his partner Jim Miller (former NFL QB) did the first of a number of mock drafts Friday....   and Kirwin's comment was that he doesn't see a single running back worthy of a first round pick (including Jacobs)  and here's the surprise.....

 

He doesn't see a single wide receiver worthy of a first round pick.    That stunned me.   In his view,  whoever are the top WR's,  they're just not that much better than the 2nd round guys.   So, they're not worth a 1st round pick to him.     I don't always agree with him,  and don't agree on this one,   but he's NOT given to saying outrageous things....    he's a pretty reasonable, sensible guy. 

 

My 4 top WR's are Metcalf,  Hollywood Brown,  Parris Campbell and AJ Brown.    I'm not sure those four will all be in the first round,  but I suspect 2-3 will be.

 

Just wanted to share here for the discussion....

 

He’s not been the only one saying that. They’ve been talking about how the QB, WR and RB groups for the draft this year fall short of being anywhere close to the last several years.  One guy, I forget his name at the money, said way back last fall that this class offensively looks a lot like the 2013 draft, which was the worse draft class in the last decade statistically speaking.  That’s why I’ve been saying I don’t think a QB will go number 1 overall and I don’t think you’ll see one taken in the top 5, maybe even top 10. 

[DougDew]

If I'm reading what you wrote correctly, his main point is that there isn't a lot of separation among the top 7 or 8?

 

I think what that says is that its unlikely a WR will be taken in the top 15, possibly top 20.  Which means pick 26 might be in position to take the best of the lot.  (assuming he's worthy of the 26th pick)  Or possibly the best will far to 34.

[DaColts85]

I would agree with what he says. The top guy according to experts is Metcalf. He screams workout warrior but not a true dominant WR. AJ Brown to me is the best of the bunch and I would grab him at 34 but I’m not sure he is there. You will still have teams reach for a WR and I could bet Metcalf goes top 15. Some teams force the need and over draft a player. Happens every year. I will say though Brown would be the only 1st round talent if I had to pick one. AJ that is not Hollywood. 

[Colts_Fan12]

hope this is true and it pushes butler down the board so we can take him later lol 

[NewColtsFan]

1 hour ago, DougDew said:

If I'm reading what you wrote correctly, his main point is that there isn't a lot of separation among the top 7 or 8?

 

I think what that says is that its unlikely a WR will be taken in the top 15, possibly top 20.  Which means pick 26 might be in position to take the best of the lot.  (assuming he's worthy of the 26th pick)  Or possibly the best will far to 34.

I have no idea how you concluded that from what I wrote?   I wrote no such thing.

 

I wrote about one RB — Jacobs.

 

I wrote about 3-4 WR’s.

 

And I wrote it’s only his view.   There are 32 current GMs and we don’t know yet what their view is.   But history would suggest that at least a small number of WR’s will be taken.

 

I think you’ve connected too many dots.    It’s not even clear there’s a consensus on who the best WR even is.

 

[Matthew Gilbert]

4 hours ago, csmopar said:

One guy, I forget his name at the money, said way back last fall that this class offensively looks a lot like the 2013 draft, which was the worse draft class in the last decade statistically speaking.

This very well could be true, but only time will tell. If you're looking for star power on offense, the 2020 and 2021 classes are loaded to the gills. This current class has been billed as the defensive class for quite some time and rightfully so IMO.

[stitches]

The running back comment is reasonable. I'm not sure the WR one is. I think multiple WRs go in the first. What's the last draft without a WR taken in the 1st? I just checked the last 20 drafts and there was only one draft that had no WRs taken in the 1st - 2008 draft. It practically never happens. 

[chad72]

23 minutes ago, stitches said:

The running back comment is reasonable. I'm not sure the WR one is. I think multiple WRs go in the first. What's the last draft without a WR taken in the 1st? I just checked the last 20 drafts and there was only one draft that had no WRs taken in the 1st - 2008 draft. It practically never happens. 

 

A J Brown or Hakeem Butler at No.34, I’m all in for either. They’re going to make plays at the next level, no doubt in my mind.

 

I do think the run on WRs will come in the second round.

[rock8591]

AJ Brown by far. Reminds me of JJ Smith Schuester, not the tallest or fastest, but has a good mix of both, and can make plays, as well be a good blocker at 6'1'' 230 lbs.

[throwing BBZ]

6 hours ago, LockeDown said:

After reading Greg Cosells evaluations of the top receives, I don’t want to spend a first round pick on a starting slot receiver.  Round 2 ?  Yes. 

 

 Good comedy because you need not be concerned about any receiver being chosen there.

[DougDew]

2 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

I have no idea how you concluded that from what I wrote?   I wrote no such thing.

 

I wrote about one RB — Jacobs.

 

I wrote about 3-4 WR’s.

 

And I wrote it’s only his view.   There are 32 current GMs and we don’t know yet what their view is.   But history would suggest that at least a small number of WR’s will be taken.

 

I think you’ve connected too many dots.    It’s not even clear there’s a consensus on who the best WR even is.

 

I don't see how you concluded that I concluded anything from what I wrote.    I wrote 4 sentences.

 

The first sentence said "If....true", and ended with a question mark.

 

The second sentence contained " I think", "unlikely", and "possibly".

 

The third sentences contained "might", and "assuming".

 

And the fourth sentence contained "possibly" again.

 

I chose not to write about the RB.  I don't care about the RBs.

 

[throwing BBZ]

11 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

He's the former GM of the Jets about 8-10 years ago....

 

He's also the expert voice on NFL radio's Moving the Chains.

 

He and his partner Jim Miller (former NFL QB) did the first of a number of mock drafts Friday....   and Kirwin's comment was that he doesn't see a single running back worthy of a first round pick (including Jacobs)  and here's the surprise.....

 

He doesn't see a single wide receiver worthy of a first round pick.    That stunned me.   In his view,  whoever are the top WR's,  they're just not that much better than the 2nd round guys.   So, they're not worth a 1st round pick to him.     I don't always agree with him,  and don't agree on this one,   but he's NOT given to saying outrageous things....    he's a pretty reasonable, sensible guy. 

 

My 4 top WR's are Metcalf,  Hollywood Brown,  Parris Campbell and AJ Brown.    I'm not sure those four will all be in the first round,  but I suspect 2-3 will be.

 

Just wanted to share here for the discussion....

 

 

 That would mean to me none have a 1st rd grade based on his way of grading them which would be based on his long experience of doing so.
 Because projecting what a receiver will turn out to be in 2-3 years is so difficult, his estimate then is if so many are so equal, it would be wise to pick from another position that has less depth, and to get a needed WR later.  See Braden Smith
 Ballard basics IMO.

[ColtsBlueFL]

14 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

He's the former GM of the Jets about 8-10 years ago....

 

* 8 years, started as a defensive assistant coach and advanced all the way to Director of Player Administration, where he negotiated contracts and managed the team's salary cap.

 

Quote

He's also the expert voice on NFL radio's Moving the Chains.

 

He and his partner Jim Miller (former NFL QB) did the first of a number of mock drafts Friday....   and Kirwin's comment was that he doesn't see a single running back worthy of a first round pick (including Jacobs)  and here's the surprise.....

 

I heard that.

 

Quote

 

He doesn't see a single wide receiver worthy of a first round pick.    That stunned me.   In his view,  whoever are the top WR's,  they're just not that much better than the 2nd round guys.   So, they're not worth a 1st round pick to him.    

 

I heard that too. Chris Landry seems to agree as here's his top WR grades-

6.5 = Late 1st Round Value (2)

1. MARQUISE BROWN–OKLAHOMA
2. D.K. METCALF–OLE MISS

6.4 = Early 2nd Round Value  (4)
3. RILEY RIDLEY–GEORGIA
4. AJ BROWN–OLE MISS
5. N’KEAL HARRY–ARIZONA STATE
6. DEEBO SAMUEL–SOUTH CAROLINA

6.0 = Mid to Late 2nd Round Value  (4)
7. PARRIS CAMPBELL–OHIO STATE
8. KELVIN HARMON–NORTH CAROLINA STATE
9. JJ ARCEGA WHITESIDE–STANFORD
10. HAKEEM BUTLER–IOWA STATE

 

For each specific team, I can see Interviews, private workouts, physical/medical info, etc.. altering the order.  They are pretty close raw grade.  Gil Brandt has always siad the NFL draft consists of about 20 true round 1 caliber guys.  From 21 to between 50 or 60 is another close grouping.

 

Quote

I don't always agree with him,  and don't agree on this one,   but he's NOT given to saying outrageous things....    he's a pretty reasonable, sensible guy. 

 

My 4 top WR's are Metcalf,  Hollywood Brown,  Parris Campbell and AJ Brown.    I'm not sure those four will all be in the first round,  but I suspect 2-3 will be.

 

Swap Riley Ridley in for Parris Campbell, and Chris Landry totally agrees with you.

 

[ColtsAC]

ColtsBlueFlu...really liked your list. I hope the Colts take in the 2nd round.

[LockeDown]

PAris Campbell in late round 2? Yes

[hoosierhawk]

19 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

He's the former GM of the Jets about 8-10 years ago....

 

He's also the expert voice on NFL radio's Moving the Chains.

 

He and his partner Jim Miller (former NFL QB) did the first of a number of mock drafts Friday....   and Kirwin's comment was that he doesn't see a single running back worthy of a first round pick (including Jacobs)  and here's the surprise.....

 

He doesn't see a single wide receiver worthy of a first round pick.    That stunned me.   In his view,  whoever are the top WR's,  they're just not that much better than the 2nd round guys.   So, they're not worth a 1st round pick to him.     I don't always agree with him,  and don't agree on this one,   but he's NOT given to saying outrageous things....    he's a pretty reasonable, sensible guy. 

 

My 4 top WR's are Metcalf,  Hollywood Brown,  Parris Campbell and AJ Brown.    I'm not sure those four will all be in the first round,  but I suspect 2-3 will be.

 

Just wanted to share here for the discussion....

 

Why is he a former?

[NewColtsFan]

6 minutes ago, hoosierhawk said:

Why is he a former?

 

Well...   at some point EVERYONE is a former....   something.

 

And, as it turns out,  I'm wrong.   Kirwan is NOT the former Jets GM.    He's the former Director of Player administration.    He negotiated contracts and managed the team's salary cap.

 

My bad.     Sorry,  was not trying to mislead.

 

[Surge89]

20 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

He's the former GM of the Jets about 8-10 years ago....

 

He's also the expert voice on NFL radio's Moving the Chains.

 

He and his partner Jim Miller (former NFL QB) did the first of a number of mock drafts Friday....   and Kirwin's comment was that he doesn't see a single running back worthy of a first round pick (including Jacobs)  and here's the surprise.....

 

He doesn't see a single wide receiver worthy of a first round pick.    That stunned me.   In his view,  whoever are the top WR's,  they're just not that much better than the 2nd round guys.   So, they're not worth a 1st round pick to him.     I don't always agree with him,  and don't agree on this one,   but he's NOT given to saying outrageous things....    he's a pretty reasonable, sensible guy. 

 

My 4 top WR's are Metcalf,  Hollywood Brown,  Parris Campbell and AJ Brown.    I'm not sure those four will all be in the first round,  but I suspect 2-3 will be.

 

Just wanted to share here for the discussion....

 

 

This interesting but mainly because I actually agree to a point. Running backs are lack luster in this draft no doubt. I wouldn't touch the position until the third round based on talent alone.

 

Second I can't remember a year where I was so far off on my personal evaluations than the rest of the NFL analysts (even the ones I like and respect)...

 

The only first round receivers on my boards are AJ Brown and N'Keal Harry.  Butler is a fringe first round. Metcalf to me is a low second rounder (literally only because of his freakish measurables) and M Brown is a third almost 4th round pick.  Paris Cambell is literally almost twice the receiver  M Brown is and it isnt even close.  

 

This receiver class is loaded but for some reason people are looking at all of the wrong receivers (imo of course).  I'd take Isabella and Samuels before I even thought about taking Metcalf and M Brown...

 

Either way interesting read definitely! 

[WarGhost21]

I’ve said it countless times, this WR class has a ton of depth, but I don’t see any Elite talent. The best receiver is Metcalf, and I barely see him as living up to a pick in the 20s if he dropped that late. I can see 5 or 6 WRs with round 2 potential, and even more with round 3, but I do not see any round one guys

[ColtsBlueFL]

11 hours ago, Surge89 said:

I wouldn't touch the position until the third round based on talent alone.

 

That explains the Isabella pick. He is a middle/late 3rd round grade.

 

11 hours ago, Surge89 said:

I'd take Isabella and Samuels before I even thought about taking Metcalf and M Brown...

 

Indeed, quite likely because they will both be gone in round 2 (if not late round 1). Likewise with Deebo Samuel.

[Superman]

On 3/23/2019 at 11:39 PM, NewColtsFan said:

My 4 top WR's are Metcalf,  Hollywood Brown,  Parris Campbell and AJ Brown.    I'm not sure those four will all be in the first round,  but I suspect 2-3 will be.

 

I'm not a big fan of Metcalf's tape. I like the other three in different ways and to different degrees, but I don't see any of them as locks for the first round. Although, like you, I think at least three receivers will go in the first round. I don't know that it will be three of the guys you mentioned, although Metcalf will probably be one of them.

 

For whatever it's worth, Matt Miller's Big Board has AJ Brown at #15 and Metcalf at #32, and no other receivers in the top 32.

 

I see a lot of value on Day 2 at receiver. Let's just say Metcalf, Campbell and AJ Brown go in the first, that leaves Hollywood (I left him out because of his injury, although it probably won't matter), Harry, Butler, Ridley, Harmon, Samuel, Mitchell, Johnson, Isabella, Whiteside, etc., with Day 2 grades. And then a bunch of other guys that are draftable and promising on Day 3 -- Lodge (more of a target for me than Metcalf), Renfrow, Meyers, Humphrey, etc. 

 

It's kind of ironic, but I think maybe the abundance of similarly-profiled receivers in this draft will prevent any significant run on receivers in the first round. I could be totally wrong about that, but I do see this similar to Kirwan. And it kind of jives with my perspective on receivers anyways.

[NewColtsFan]

10 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I'm not a big fan of Metcalf's tape. I like the other three in different ways and to different degrees, but I don't see any of them as locks for the first round. Although, like you, I think at least three receivers will go in the first round. I don't know that it will be three of the guys you mentioned, although Metcalf will probably be one of them.

 

For whatever it's worth, Matt Miller's Big Board has AJ Brown at #15 and Metcalf at #32, and no other receivers in the top 32.

 

I see a lot of value on Day 2 at receiver. Let's just say Metcalf, Campbell and AJ Brown go in the first, that leaves Hollywood (I left him out because of his injury, although it probably won't matter), Harry, Butler, Ridley, Harmon, Samuel, Mitchell, Johnson, Isabella, Whiteside, etc., with Day 2 grades. And then a bunch of other guys that are draftable and promising on Day 3 -- Lodge (more of a target for me than Metcalf), Renfrow, Meyers, Humphrey, etc. 

 

It's kind of ironic, but I think maybe the abundance of similarly-profiled receivers in this draft will prevent any significant run on receivers in the first round. I could be totally wrong about that, but I do see this similar to Kirwan. And it kind of jives with my perspective on receivers anyways.

 

For what it’s worth...   I saw a report on Metcalf this morning saying his 20 yard shuttle was so terrible that three NFL lineman ran faster than that during their combines.   Yikes!   Feels like a giant red flag.   Holy cow!  

 

[SouthernIndianaNDFan]

19 hours ago, Surge89 said:

 

This interesting but mainly because I actually agree to a point. Running backs are lack luster in this draft no doubt. I wouldn't touch the position until the third round based on talent alone.

 

Second I can't remember a year where I was so far off on my personal evaluations than the rest of the NFL analysts (even the ones I like and respect)...

 

The only first round receivers on my boards are AJ Brown and N'Keal Harry.  Butler is a fringe first round. Metcalf to me is a low second rounder (literally only because of his freakish measurables) and M Brown is a third almost 4th round pick.  Paris Cambell is literally almost twice the receiver  M Brown is and it isnt even close.  

 

This receiver class is loaded but for some reason people are looking at all of the wrong receivers (imo of course).  I'd take Isabella and Samuels before I even thought about taking Metcalf and M Brown...

 

Either way interesting read definitely! 

 

Yeah, unless you want a WR that can actually catch the ball. 

[stitches]

The newest wild story is that Mel Kiper has Terry McLaurin going no. 26 to the Colts in his latest mock draft. I pay attention to those not because I value Kiper's scouting eye, but because he does have connections and it might be something that he's hearing(not specifically with the Colts, but in general about what teams think of it... if he hears from 2-3 teams that they have him as a late-first-early second he probably will include that info in a mock). 

[LJpalmbeacher2]

Maybe thats why he's a former AND NOT a current GM. 

[DerekDiggler]

On 3/24/2019 at 2:39 AM, NewColtsFan said:

 

He's the former GM of the Jets about 8-10 years ago....

 

He's also the expert voice on NFL radio's Moving the Chains.

 

He and his partner Jim Miller (former NFL QB) did the first of a number of mock drafts Friday....   and Kirwin's comment was that he doesn't see a single running back worthy of a first round pick (including Jacobs)  and here's the surprise.....

 

He doesn't see a single wide receiver worthy of a first round pick.    That stunned me.   In his view,  whoever are the top WR's,  they're just not that much better than the 2nd round guys.   So, they're not worth a 1st round pick to him.     I don't always agree with him,  and don't agree on this one,   but he's NOT given to saying outrageous things....    he's a pretty reasonable, sensible guy. 

 

My 4 top WR's are Metcalf,  Hollywood Brown,  Parris Campbell and AJ Brown.    I'm not sure those four will all be in the first round,  but I suspect 2-3 will be.

 

Just wanted to share here for the discussion....

 

Funny that in the other thread you made Zierlein basically said the same.

 

Maybe the actual football guys know more than the talking heads.   

[NewColtsFan]

4 minutes ago, DerekDiggler said:

Funny that in the other thread you made Zierlein basically said the same.

 

Maybe the actual football guys know more than the talking heads.   

 

I'm not sure Zierlein said he doesn't see a first round WR in this draft.    I'm sure he's got several with a first round grade.

 

[DerekDiggler]

Just now, NewColtsFan said:

 

I'm not sure Zierlein said he doesn't see a first round WR in this draft.    I'm sure he's got several with a first round grade.

 

But he did say not a very strong class.  paraphrasing 

[NewColtsFan]

1 minute ago, DerekDiggler said:

But he did say not a very strong class.  paraphrasing 

 

Yes....    yes, he did say that....    fair point.

 

Not a strong group in the 1st round.     Honestly,  I think this is the 3rd straight year where scouts have said the strength of the WR class is AFTER the first round.

 

Interesting....

 

[Surge89]

On 3/25/2019 at 9:49 AM, ColtsBlueFL said:

 

That explains the Isabella pick. He is a middle/late 3rd round grade.

 

 

Indeed, quite likely because they will both be gone in round 2 (if not late round 1). Likewise with Deebo Samuel.

 

???

Sorry I'm not following you. What explains the Isabella pick? My evaluation of running backs?

 

Again I'm confused (apologies) I'm not saying where I think these players will be drafted. I shared with NCF how different my evaluations are in comparison to most of the draft analysts out there...

[Surge89]

On 3/25/2019 at 6:03 PM, SouthernIndianaNDFan said:

 

Yeah, unless you want a WR that can actually catch the ball. 

 

Eh... I'll agree to disagree here.  He doesn't have golden hands but they aren't terrible...

[ColtsBlueFL]

10 hours ago, Surge89 said:

 

???

Sorry I'm not following you. What explains the Isabella pick? My evaluation of running backs?

 

Isabella is a round 3 grade guy (from my source).  You mentioned you wouldn't touch the position before round 3 and you also said (and I quote) -

 

"I'd take Isabella and Samuels before I even thought about taking Metcalf and M Brown..."

 

That's all.

 

10 hours ago, Surge89 said:

Again I'm confused (apologies) I'm not saying where I think these players will be drafted. I shared with NCF how different my evaluations are in comparison to most of the draft analysts out there...

 

[Matthew Gilbert]

22 hours ago, stitches said:

. I pay attention to those not because I value Kiper's scouting eye, but because he does have connections and it might be something that he's hearing(not specifically with the Colts, but in general about what teams think of it...

Way to pick up on that. I 100% agree on your assumption here. I was thinking McLaurin was going to be a steal in day three but now that thought may be out the window.

[Dr. T]

On 3/26/2019 at 10:26 AM, stitches said:

The newest wild story is that Mel Kiper has Terry McLaurin going no. 26 to the Colts in his latest mock draft. I pay attention to those not because I value Kiper's scouting eye, but because he does have connections and it might be something that he's hearing(not specifically with the Colts, but in general about what teams think of it... if he hears from 2-3 teams that they have him as a late-first-early second he probably will include that info in a mock). 

 Mel Kiper must be high. No way Ballard takes Terry McLaurin at 26. No way!