Where are the Naysayers?

[Yoshinator]

1 minute ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Yeah same here. We both had 9-7 and a 6th Seed before the season started, it did take 10 wins to get in. I think we will win Saturday too but it won't be easy. Luck won't face a QB that is as great as him until he plays someone like Mahomes or of course Brady.

I think we'll beat the Texans as well. Hilton owns them, he'll have a few days to heal, so he should be ok. I think I've said this before, but their O-Line is garbage, and Watson holds onto the ball too long like Luck used too, so we'll probably get 3-5 sacks on him. My only worry is Watt and Clowney. They may get to Luck and sack him a couple times, but if Kelly returns, we should minimize the damage. Kelly will also open up the run game on a tough run defense, can't stress how important it is for him to return. I'd rather have an 80-90% Ryan Kelly than a 100% Boehm.

[2006Coltsbestever]

1 minute ago, Jared Cisneros said:

I think we'll beat the Texans as well. Hilton owns them, he'll have a few days to heal, so he should be ok. I think I've said this before, but their O-Line is garbage, and Watson holds onto the ball too long like Luck used too, so we'll probably get 3-5 sacks on him. My only worry is Watt and Clowney. They may get to Luck and sack him a couple times, but if Kelly returns, we should minimize the damage. Kelly will also open up the run game on a tough run defense, can't stress how important it is for him to return. I'd rather have an 80-90% Ryan Kelly than a 100% Boehm.

Yeah that is what worries me too, their Pass Rush. Our O.Line has been Great lately but Watt and Clowney are both dangerous. Watson breaking off a long run or Hopkins catching deep pass worries me as well. The Texans have alot of talent and are at home.

[Yoshinator]

1 minute ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Yeah that is what worries me too, their Pass Rush. Our O.Line has been Great lately but Watt and Clowney are both dangerous. Watson breaking off a long run or Hopkins catching deep pass worries me as well. The Texans have alot of talent and are at home.

As surprising as this sounds, I'm not that worried about Hopkins. Fuller is out, Demaryius Thomas is out as well, and Coutee won't be 100%. We can double-team Hopkins all day and limit the damage. Home field doesn't seem to benefit them too much Vs us either, it might give them a slight advantage, but we usually overcome it. Lamar Miller may give us some issues. He's a good all-around back, and his versatility may give us trouble. The defense is my main concern in the pass rush and being able to force turnovers. We are somewhat susceptible to turnovers, and the Texans can force them. If we don't turn the ball over on Saturday, I believe we will run away with this game.

[2006Coltsbestever]

2 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

As surprising as this sounds, I'm not that worried about Hopkins. Fuller is out, Demaryius Thomas is out as well, and Coutee won't be 100%. We can double-team Hopkins all day and limit the damage. Home field doesn't seem to benefit them too much Vs us either, it might give them a slight advantage, but we usually overcome it. Lamar Miller may give us some issues. He's a good all-around back, and his versatility may give us trouble. The defense is my main concern in the pass rush and being able to force turnovers. We are somewhat susceptible to turnovers, and the Texans can force them. If we don't turn the ball over on Saturday, I believe we will run away with this game.

Turnovers are definitely a key factor. At times Andrew does have that 1 pass where you scratch your head. He had 1 against the Titans.  

[Yoshinator]

Just now, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Turnovers are definitely a key factor. At times Andrew does have that 1 pass where you scratch your head. He had 1 against the Titans.  

I saw the INT for a TD and was cussing at the TV like crazy. We were up 14-0 and it was the most random thing I've ever seen. I have no idea why Luck threw that pass. I was going to mention that though, Luck has a "blonde" moment each game it seems.  The Titans game it was worst-case scenario, lets hope it's just an incompletion when it happens Saturday.

[2006Coltsbestever]

1 minute ago, Jared Cisneros said:

I saw the INT for a TD and was cussing at the TV like crazy. We were up 14-0 and it was the most random thing I've ever seen. I have no idea why Luck threw that pass. I was going to mention that though, Luck has a "blonde" moment each game it seems.  The Titans game it was worst-case scenario, lets hope it's just an incompletion when it happens Saturday.

Yeah I do not get upset with Andrew much but after he threw that I was screaming at the TV. I couldn't figure out what he was throwing at either. He is human though  . We can't have that vs the Texans. Luckily we were up 14-0 when it happened and Luck played great other than that mishap.

[crazycolt1]

7 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Turnovers are definitely a key factor. At times Andrew does have that 1 pass where you scratch your head. He had 1 against the Titans.  

 

4 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

I saw the INT for a TD and was cussing at the TV like crazy. We were up 14-0 and it was the most random thing I've ever seen. I have no idea why Luck threw that pass. I was going to mention that though, Luck has a "blonde" moment each game it seems.  The Titans game it was worst-case scenario, lets hope it's just an incompletion when it happens Saturday.

These picks are going to happen when your QB has that gunslinger mentality. It pretty much comes with the territory.

[2006Coltsbestever]

1 minute ago, crazycolt1 said:

 

These picks are going to happen when your QB has that gunslinger mentality. It pretty much comes with the territory.

I know that one was pretty bad though.

[crazycolt1]

1 minute ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I know that one was pretty bad though.

I agree but it is nice to have a defense that can overcome mistakes like this. That is something we haven't had in the past.

[2006Coltsbestever]

1 minute ago, crazycolt1 said:

I agree but it is nice to have a defense that can overcome mistakes like this. That is something we haven't had in the past.

Yeah we finally have a Defense that is physical and can get key stops if we do turn it over, very nice to see.

[Yoshinator]

Only real weakness on our defense right now is the lack of a true pass rusher. If I had to choose between a top pass-rusher and a no1 CB, I'd actually choose the pass-rusher now. Our secondary is really solid with the guys we have.

[2006Coltsbestever]

1 minute ago, Jared Cisneros said:

Only real weakness on our defense right now is the lack of a true pass rusher. If I had to choose between a top pass-rusher and a no1 CB, I'd actually choose the pass-rusher now. Our secondary is really solid with the guys we have.

I am sure Ballard will draft both but not sure when. I would also say he drafts a WR, pretty obvious. I am not sure what he will do in Free Agency. We have tons of money so the options are limitless.

[crazycolt1]

3 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I am sure Ballard will draft both but not sure when. I would also say he drafts a WR, pretty obvious. I am not sure what he will do in Free Agency. We have tons of money so the options are limitless.

All we can hope for is the players needed become available in free agency. Having the money to spend does not mean the impact players will be there in free agency, especially a good pass rusher or a receiver.

[Yoshinator]

1 minute ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I am sure Ballard will draft both but not sure when. I would also say he drafts a WR, pretty obvious. I am not sure what he will do in Free Agency. We have tons of money so the options are limitless.

I have 5 CB's in this draft who I think could be our no1 CB. If the draft were at this stage of the game, I'd draft BPA first round and hope one of those 5 CBs fall to our early 2nd. I love two WRs right now in this class. Kelvin Harmon and Deebo Samuel. Harmon may go in the 1st, but with the D-Line being so strong and some other WR's also rising, he could fall to the 2nd round. I expect Deebo to be there in the 2nd as well. I'm going to do my first mock after the national title game when college is officially over.

[2006Coltsbestever]

3 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

All we can hope for is the players needed become available in free agency. Having the money to spend does not mean the impact players will be there in free agency, especially a good pass rusher or a receiver.

No doubt. I agree and Ballard is smart so I trust him on who to bring in.

[crazycolt1]

2 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

I have 5 CB's in this draft who I think could be our no1 CB. If the draft were at this stage of the game, I'd draft BPA first round and hope one of those 5 CBs fall to our early 2nd. I love two WRs right now in this class. Kelvin Harmon and Deebo Samuel. Harmon may go in the 1st, but with the D-Line being so strong and some other WR's also rising, he could fall to the 2nd round. I expect Deebo to be there in the 2nd as well. I'm going to do my first mock after the national title game when college is officially over.

The thing about mock drafts and looking at players we as fans think should be drafted is they never match what Ballard does.

With the exception of Q, all of Ballard's picks had most of us scratching our heads including me. 95% of the forum members were second guessing his picks and saying how wrong he was. He was over reaching is what most were saying.

If there is one thing I have learned is trust Ballard. I have come to conclude he knows what he is doing.

 

[2006Coltsbestever]

3 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

The thing about mock drafts and looking at players we as fans think should be drafted is they never match what Ballard does.

With the exception of Q, all of Ballard's picks had most of us scratching our heads including me. 95% of the forum members were second guessing his picks and saying how wrong he was. He was over reaching is what most were saying.

If there is one thing I have learned is trust Ballard. I have come to conclude he knows what he is doing.

 

Did anyone think Leonard would be this Good? He is actually Great!

[Yoshinator]

2 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

The thing about mock drafts and looking at players we as fans think should be drafted is they never match what Ballard does.

With the exception of Q, all of Ballard's picks had most of us scratching our heads including me. 95% of the forum members were second guessing his picks and saying how wrong he was. He was over reaching is what most were saying.

If there is one thing I have learned is trust Ballard. I have come to conclude he knows what he is doing.

 

I agree. He has more access to scouts, tape, and other resources than any of us do. All we can do is have fun with it before the draft and trust Ballard that his picks pan out for us afterwards. He has earned a very long leash with me after this year's draft. We'll probably see a similar strategy where he gets someone that's a starter at every position he chooses with the first 3 picks according to his board and ranks. This year, I'm going to go with it.

[crazycolt1]

1 minute ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Did anyone think Leonard would be this Good? He is actually Great!

Certainly not me but I don't follow college players that close.

Someone said in an earlier thread that the 'blue chip' players are all gone towards the end of round one. Leonard proved that wrong.

[Yoshinator]

2 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Did anyone think Leonard would be this Good? He is actually Great!

I heard about him before day 2 started from my best friend. One of his friends went to the same high school as Leonard and knows him personally. He told me all about him (he's a Bronco fan) when we were discussing linebackers both our teams could get. When I heard the only real knock on him was his school, I knew he might be real good. I love getting those players.

[crazycolt1]

1 minute ago, Jared Cisneros said:

I agree. He has more access to scouts, tape, and other resources than any of us do. All we can do is have fun with it before the draft and trust Ballard that his picks pan out for us afterwards. He has earned a very long leash with me after this year's draft. We'll probably see a similar strategy where he gets someone that's a starter at every position he chooses with the first 3 picks according to his board and ranks. This year, I'm going to go with it.

So far Ballard has drafted and signed free agents to fit this team and his vision of what he wants.

He seems to like team captains and leaders no matter what position he picks. He looks at talent but may not go with the most talented if it don't fit the team.

Odds are he is not going to 'hit' on as many picks in the future as this last draft but if he comes close I don't think we could have much negative to say.

 

[Yoshinator]

1 minute ago, crazycolt1 said:

So far Ballard has drafted and signed free agents to fit this team and his vision of what he wants.

He seems to like team captains and leaders no matter what position he picks. He looks at talent but may not go with the most talented if it don't fit the team.

Odds are he is not going to 'hit' on as many picks in the future as this last draft but if he comes close I don't think we could have much negative to say.

 

Agreed. High character, high leadership guys that fit our scheme. They won't always be BPA, but it's a safe bet they won't have character concerns, and they will have high intelligence to understand the game quicker. The scheme fit also eases the process. The only way a Ballard pick will usually "bust" is because of injuries or talent. He eliminates the other outside factors and chance, and I love it.

[superrep1967]

On 12/31/2018 at 2:30 PM, Lucky Colts Fan said:

I'm not going to name names, but I'm wondering why we aren't seeing certain posters when things are going so well... 

 

Where are the people that weren't impressed with Ballard?

 

Where are the people that thought Luck was done?

 

Where are the people that thought the Colts had the worst roster in the NFL?

 

Winning cures all.  Including an infestation of forum pests. 

I agree where is the poster who said he wasn't impressed with Ballard? Is he off into hibernation for the winter or what? That was a bad post to start with and it looks really silly now. 

[Chrisaaron1023]

After losing to the Jags.. i thought we could've lost the rest of the games (with giants being the exception).. I immediately came on here to eat crow after the cowboys shutout. 

 

I had no expectations of this team at the beginning of the year. Was just soo happy to see #12 back out there every week. That was good enough for me. And ALL the games we played in this year were close, so even in the beginning of the season i was thrilled. I kept saying, "if the ball bounces this or that way, we could've won"

 

Doyle fumble driving- Bengals

Andrew Luck Slip in the rain- Eagles

Not punting with 27 secs left- Texans

Marched back against the Pats until the super Gordon Play

Honestly our worse game was against the Jets. And we lost by 8..

 

But heck, while I'm on this tangent... beside two or three games last year didn't we blow a 4th quarter lead every game?!

 

[DrLuck]

7 hours ago, crazycolt1 said:

The thing about mock drafts and looking at players we as fans think should be drafted is they never match what Ballard does.

With the exception of Q, all of Ballard's picks had most of us scratching our heads including me. 95% of the forum members were second guessing his picks and saying how wrong he was. He was over reaching is what most were saying.

If there is one thing I have learned is trust Ballard. I have come to conclude he knows what he is doing.

 

What does he see that we don't? This has always interested me. Like.. there is a slight worry to me he got a bit lucky because so many knowledgeable people questioned him. Maybe he focused more on scheme fit and attitude than most would? Would love to here someone explain this haha.

[crazycolt1]

18 minutes ago, DrLuck said:

What does he see that we don't? This has always interested me. Like.. there is a slight worry to me he got a bit lucky because so many knowledgeable people questioned him. Maybe he focused more on scheme fit and attitude than most would? Would love to here someone explain this haha.

The only answer I can think of is he is more knowledgeable than the people who think they have the knowledge.

I think what you said about scheme fit and attitude (captains and team leaders) plays a big roll in who he picks.

[Coffeedrinker]

29 minutes ago, DrLuck said:

What does he see that we don't? This has always interested me. Like.. there is a slight worry to me he got a bit lucky because so many knowledgeable people questioned him. Maybe he focused more on scheme fit and attitude than most would? Would love to here someone explain this haha.

I will try to explain it but I will probably come up short.

 

When fans look at the draft, we read a few draft boards that we trust, we look at what we perceive are needs on the team, we look at the positives and weaknesses of candidates we think are the top players in those perceived need areas.

 

What a GM does is sit down with the coaches and coordinates and first establishes what attributes are important for each position, since Ballard drafted a few LBers this past draft, all with similar traits I will use that as an example.  We can tell from the players drafted the primary attributes Ebeflus wants are; speed, strength, team leader, high football intelligence, agility, acceleration and tackle ability.

 

So then the GM and coaches/coodinators assign a weight to each attribute,speed (9.5), strength (8.0), team leader (9.0), high football intelligence (8.6), agility (9.2), acceleration (9.3) and tackle ability (9.6).

 

So then the GM and coaches watch film together of different players to establish a baseline.  For example, they may watch film of lets say Patrick Willis and to show what a LB with elite agility and acceleration is and they establish a number grade based on different criteria probably a 1-10 scale.

 

The GM then writes all of this in his scouting book and meets with the scouts and goes over this information also showing them some film clips so they understand the baselines.

 

The scouts then go out and grade players based on the above information.

 

While that is going on the coaches and GM get together and analyze the team and they determine the position weight.  This is how teams can get the BPA while still focusing on improving the overall roster.  With the Colts, for example, with Luck and Brissett, the QB position would have a position weight of 0.6, whereas, WR may have a position weight of 1.  That is why a team can say best player available but not draft a QB.  To stick with the example above let's say that LB now as a weight of 0.8.

 

Then the GM goes through and develops an overall grade for a player by multiplying the (scout's score times attribute weight) times position weight.

 

So player A a LB

speed (9.5)   X 8.0 = 76

strength (8.0) X 7.0 = 56

team leader (9.0) X 9.0 = 81

high football intelligence (8.6) X 9.2 = 79.12

agility (9.2) X 8.5 = 78.2

acceleration (9.3) X 8.2 = 76.26

tackle ability (9.6) X 9.0 = 86.4

 

Total = 532.98 (players score) X 0.8 (position weight) = 426.384

 

Because of that position weight it can drastically change how a team values a player, that is why you see a team take Player B over Player A and all the fans cry, how could they take Player B when Player A was still on the board.  I'd say it's pretty safe to say that in 2018 guard, dline and LBers had the highest position weight value.  team evaluation is also, IMO, what makes a good or great GM vs a bad GM.  A great GM can do a good job of figuring out the teams needs 1-5 years in advance, whereas fans look at what happened the year before and determine team needs from that.  For example, the 2018 most fans saw CB as a huge need for the Colts, obviously the Colts did not think so and many fans were upset when the Colts didn't draft a CB in the first couple of rounds.  2019 will be interesting in that most fans think WR is a top priority but CB may look at the development of Innman and Cain and the improved reliability of Rogers and not place a lower position weight on the WR spot.

 

That is a pretty general explanation of what the GM sees that the fans don't.

 

[crazycolt1]

2 hours ago, Coffeedrinker said:

I will try to explain it but I will probably come up short.

 

When fans look at the draft, we read a few draft boards that we trust, we look at what we perceive are needs on the team, we look at the positives and weaknesses of candidates we think are the top players in those perceived need areas.

 

What a GM does is sit down with the coaches and coordinates and first establishes what attributes are important for each position, since Ballard drafted a few LBers this past draft, all with similar traits I will use that as an example.  We can tell from the players drafted the primary attributes Ebeflus wants are; speed, strength, team leader, high football intelligence, agility, acceleration and tackle ability.

 

So then the GM and coaches/coodinators assign a weight to each attribute,speed (9.5), strength (8.0), team leader (9.0), high football intelligence (8.6), agility (9.2), acceleration (9.3) and tackle ability (9.6).

 

So then the GM and coaches watch film together of different players to establish a baseline.  For example, they may watch film of lets say Patrick Willis and to show what a LB with elite agility and acceleration is and they establish a number grade based on different criteria probably a 1-10 scale.

 

The GM then writes all of this in his scouting book and meets with the scouts and goes over this information also showing them some film clips so they understand the baselines.

 

The scouts then go out and grade players based on the above information.

 

While that is going on the coaches and GM get together and analyze the team and they determine the position weight.  This is how teams can get the BPA while still focusing on improving the overall roster.  With the Colts, for example, with Luck and Brissett, the QB position would have a position weight of 0.6, whereas, WR may have a position weight of 1.  That is why a team can say best player available but not draft a QB.  To stick with the example above let's say that LB now as a weight of 0.8.

 

Then the GM goes through and develops an overall grade for a player by multiplying the (scout's score times attribute weight) times position weight.

 

So player A a LB

speed (9.5)   X 8.0 = 76

strength (8.0) X 7.0 = 56

team leader (9.0) X 9.0 = 81

high football intelligence (8.6) X 9.2 = 79.12

agility (9.2) X 8.5 = 78.2

acceleration (9.3) X 8.2 = 76.26

tackle ability (9.6) X 9.0 = 86.4

 

Total = 532.98 (players score) X 0.8 (position weight) = 426.384

 

Because of that position weight it can drastically change how a team values a player, that is why you see a team take Player B over Player A and all the fans cry, how could they take Player B when Player A was still on the board.  I'd say it's pretty safe to say that in 2018 guard, dline and LBers had the highest position weight value.  team evaluation is also, IMO, what makes a good or great GM vs a bad GM.  A great GM can do a good job of figuring out the teams needs 1-5 years in advance, whereas fans look at what happened the year before and determine team needs from that.  For example, the 2018 most fans saw CB as a huge need for the Colts, obviously the Colts did not think so and many fans were upset when the Colts didn't draft a CB in the first couple of rounds.  2019 will be interesting in that most fans think WR is a top priority but CB may look at the development of Innman and Cain and the improved reliability of Rogers and not place a lower position weight on the WR spot.

 

That is a pretty general explanation of what the GM sees that the fans don't.

 

Good explanation but a little long.

I can condense this into a simple comment.

99% of fans have little knowledge in the process of drafting.

[deedub75]

On 12/31/2018 at 3:26 PM, TheMarine said:

I thought 7-9, with a ceiling of 9-7. Was happy to be wrong

 

I thought 8-8 or 9-7 and miss the playoffs but I’m glad to be wrong as well. I didn’t anticipate the Jags being so terrible and I thought that the Titans would be better too. 

[Fluke_33]

7 hours ago, Coffeedrinker said:

I will try to explain it but I will probably come up short.

 

When fans look at the draft, we read a few draft boards that we trust, we look at what we perceive are needs on the team, we look at the positives and weaknesses of candidates we think are the top players in those perceived need areas.

 

What a GM does is sit down with the coaches and coordinates and first establishes what attributes are important for each position, since Ballard drafted a few LBers this past draft, all with similar traits I will use that as an example.  We can tell from the players drafted the primary attributes Ebeflus wants are; speed, strength, team leader, high football intelligence, agility, acceleration and tackle ability.

 

So then the GM and coaches/coodinators assign a weight to each attribute,speed (9.5), strength (8.0), team leader (9.0), high football intelligence (8.6), agility (9.2), acceleration (9.3) and tackle ability (9.6).

 

So then the GM and coaches watch film together of different players to establish a baseline.  For example, they may watch film of lets say Patrick Willis and to show what a LB with elite agility and acceleration is and they establish a number grade based on different criteria probably a 1-10 scale.

 

The GM then writes all of this in his scouting book and meets with the scouts and goes over this information also showing them some film clips so they understand the baselines.

 

The scouts then go out and grade players based on the above information.

 

While that is going on the coaches and GM get together and analyze the team and they determine the position weight.  This is how teams can get the BPA while still focusing on improving the overall roster.  With the Colts, for example, with Luck and Brissett, the QB position would have a position weight of 0.6, whereas, WR may have a position weight of 1.  That is why a team can say best player available but not draft a QB.  To stick with the example above let's say that LB now as a weight of 0.8.

 

Then the GM goes through and develops an overall grade for a player by multiplying the (scout's score times attribute weight) times position weight.

  

So player A a LB

speed (9.5)   X 8.0 = 76

strength (8.0) X 7.0 = 56

team leader (9.0) X 9.0 = 81

high football intelligence (8.6) X 9.2 = 79.12

agility (9.2) X 8.5 = 78.2

acceleration (9.3) X 8.2 = 76.26

tackle ability (9.6) X 9.0 = 86.4

 

Total = 532.98 (players score) X 0.8 (position weight) = 426.384

  

Because of that position weight it can drastically change how a team values a player, that is why you see a team take Player B over Player A and all the fans cry, how could they take Player B when Player A was still on the board.  I'd say it's pretty safe to say that in 2018 guard, dline and LBers had the highest position weight value.  team evaluation is also, IMO, what makes a good or great GM vs a bad GM.  A great GM can do a good job of figuring out the teams needs 1-5 years in advance, whereas fans look at what happened the year before and determine team needs from that.  For example, the 2018 most fans saw CB as a huge need for the Colts, obviously the Colts did not think so and many fans were upset when the Colts didn't draft a CB in the first couple of rounds.  2019 will be interesting in that most fans think WR is a top priority but CB may look at the development of Innman and Cain and the improved reliability of Rogers and not place a lower position weight on the WR spot.

  

That is a pretty general explanation of what the GM sees that the fans don't.

  

[SOMDColtsfan]

Still here, was definitely wrong. When Ballard said he'd build through the draft, stood put with no FA signings and rolled with what he had..honestly thought with a new coach who might afford a losing record Ballard was shooting for 1 more early pick draft to build this team. Was wrong..

[braveheartcolt]

We do like to chase down the crow eating candidates on this forum, don't we. We all get things wrong some times. A lot of times in my case. Let it go. 

[Dark Superman]

True Colts fans should have nothing but praise for this team. Haters will find any reason to hate on us. Let them keep on talking. Maybe not this year, but SOON, this team is going places! Like the Super Bowl!

[Lucky Colts Fan]

14 hours ago, braveheartcolt said:

We do like to chase down the crow eating candidates on this forum, don't we. We all get things wrong some times. A lot of times in my case. Let it go. 

 

I will not let sensationalists disparage my team with impunity.

 

We cannot abandon accountability and transparency if we are to call ourselves an open and free society.

 

One final note:  nana nana booboo, stick your head in doodoo. 

[krunk]

Wonder where Dustin is?  He was sure on here talking like an expert as usual saying anybody who thought the Colts were going anywhere this year is foolish at best.    Where you at D?