Jump to content
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts Fan Forum

OL run blocking stat


Superman

Recommended Posts

 

 

This is good news. Frank Gore took 78.7% of our RB carries last season. We all know Frank Gore has no top gear anymore, and he's not a breakaway threat. Yet, 51.9% of our team's rushing yards came before contact. (That stat is unwashed, and includes QB scrambles, etc.)  This means that, despite the many and well-documented struggles of the OL last year, they did a reasonably good job of run blocking, keeping the backs clean long enough to gain positive yardage often enough that half their yardage came before contact. 

 

Turbin got only 47 carries last year, and a large percentage of them were goal line carries with no breakaway potential. Turbin is not exactly an open field monster himself.

 

Ferguson got only 15 carries, and didn't really earn more. He has some speed, but he tripped over his own feet more often than he got tackled. (And before you get too excited about Christine Michael, he has the same problem. One reddit poster called him "an experience," and that's the best way to describe stuff like this: https://twitter.com/guga31bb/status/798660498891927552.)

 

By the way, the longest carry by a back last season was 22 yards for Gore. We didn't come close to any really long carries (Gore did have the 49 yard catch and run against the Titans). Luck had a 33 yarder. The last time we had a 40+ yard carry was Boom Herron in 2014, against Washington.

 

Enter Marlon Mack, who we learned had one of the highest breakaway percentages in college football last year at 52.3%. (Breakaway runs are 15 yards or more.) He is the best hope the Colts have had for a "home run threat" in a long time.

 

And here's how you torture stats to make them say what you want: If the Colts backs earned more than 50% of their yardage before contact last season, and Mack earned over 50% of his yards on breakaway runs, that means that Mack should break for 15 yards or more every time he gets the ball, right??? Of course not, but you can see the potential when you pair an offensive line that can get your back to the second level with a back who has explosive ability when he touches the ball. 

 

If the OL settles in, especially on the right side, and if Gore continues to set the pace as an early down back, and we have a good short yardage option in Turbin, adding a true change-of-pace back -- which Mack should be capable of -- gives the rushing attack a dimension that it has not had in a long time. The run game could be the best we've had since Edgerrin James.

 

Come on, Chud!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Same offensive line that had Luck as the 5th least sacked QB over the last 7 weeks of the season. Grigson had a lot of bad moves, but those 4 picks on offensive line last year were great.

 

Philbin coaching them, and Ballard running the show now...... we're gonna be a good team. Maybe go 9-7 or something this year at worst.

 

But by the season after this, we could be looking at a very good team 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, TKnight24 said:

Same offensive line that had Luck as the 5th least sacked QB over the last 7 weeks of the season. Grigson had a lot of bad moves, but those 4 picks on offensive line last year were great.

 

Philbin coaching them, and Ballard running the show now...... we're gonna be a good team. Maybe go 9-7 or something this year at worst.

 

But by the season after this, we could be looking at a very good team 

I am psyched about the Offensive Line possibilities moving forward!  Like most, I hope left to right is as follows..Castonzo, Mewhort(with extension), Kelly, Haeg, and Clark.  With Schwenke and Good providing starting caliber depth.  Banner and Vujnovich will hopefully continue to blossom...and who can forget about Fahn?  :cheer2:

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, 21isSuperman said:

I wonder how it breaks down per gap.  How does the yards before contact vary when running to each side, running behind each lineman, etc.  I'm especially interested in seeing how it breaks down when running behind Ryan Kelly

 

How about an actual thinkpiece from StampedeBlue? It goes into greater detail about how a homerun threat RB can help. The Colts had the fewest stuffed runs in the league last year, only 13% of their runs stopped at or behind the LOS. They were also worst in open field yardage. Gore is a tough vet, but we're leaving a lot of yards on the field.

http://www.stampedeblue.com/2017/4/7/15223594/how-frank-gore-became-a-liability-for-the-colts

 

And this is from Football Outsiders (referenced in the SB article above). Scroll down. The Colts were #1 running behind the center. Ryan Kelly is the man. Credit to Chud, 59% of our runs were up the middle, sticking to what we do best. We need someone who can bend the corner, though. Hopefully Mack can do that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 hours ago, TKnight24 said:

Same offensive line that had Luck as the 5th least sacked QB over the last 7 weeks of the season. Grigson had a lot of bad moves, but those 4 picks on offensive line last year were great.

 

Philbin coaching them, and Ballard running the show now...... we're gonna be a good team. Maybe go 9-7 or something this year at worst.

 

But by the season after this, we could be looking at a very good team 

 

 Just not TRUE!  Why?  Mewhort the slug was not playing.
 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, Superman said:

 

How about an actual thinkpiece from StampedeBlue? It goes into greater detail about how a homerun threat RB can help. The Colts had the fewest stuffed runs in the league last year, only 13% of their runs stopped at or behind the LOS. They were also worst in open field yardage. Gore is a tough vet, but we're leaving a lot of yards on the field.

http://www.stampedeblue.com/2017/4/7/15223594/how-frank-gore-became-a-liability-for-the-colts

 

And this is from Football Outsiders (referenced in the SB article above). Scroll down. The Colts were #1 running behind the center. Ryan Kelly is the man. Credit to Chud, 59% of our runs were up the middle, sticking to what we do best. We need someone who can bend the corner, though. Hopefully Mack can do that.

 

 nonsense!  Gore being great at finding holes is why we had so few stuffs.
 And the lack of athleticism of our guards in particular was why we couldn`t get any blocking, yardage outside
or up field. Still waiting on Mewhort to get out and make a good block in the open field. Good was just as slow.
 You can`t fix Mewort being slow. Haeg can run but lol on his weight and strength being there. Go Joe.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 hours ago, 21isSuperman said:

I wonder how it breaks down per gap.  How does the yards before contact vary when running to each side, running behind each lineman, etc.  I'm especially interested in seeing how it breaks down when running behind Ryan Kelly

 

I don't have the resources handy, but surprisingly, the rookies on the right side of the line were very good at run blocking last season, even better than the interior and left side. PFF alluded to it right after the season ended, but I'd probably have to spend an hour trying to track that down.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

 nonsense!  Gore being great at finding holes is why we had so few stuffs.
 And the lack of athleticism of our guards in particular was why we couldn`t get any blocking, yardage outside
or up field. Still waiting on Mewhort to get out and make a good block in the open field. Good was just as slow.
 You can`t fix Mewort being slow. Haeg can run but lol on his weight and strength being there. Go Joe.

 

Yeah, not really. The offensive line has to create a hole in order for a runningback to find it, that's why a 33 year old back was able to rush for 1,000 yards in the first place.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Before drawing firm conclusions from these stats, like " Gore is a tough vet, but we're leaving a lot of yards on the field" can I suggest that you look at Gore's highlight film from last year and tell me how many times Gore got through the LOS and had open yards he missed.  99% of the time, Gore is running into several unblocked defenders in front of him....that's why neither he nor any other RB is getting big runs.  RBs need blocks to cut off of.  If you look at the highlight films of the RBs who had big runs last year, most of them outside of McCoy have great downfield blocking.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

42 minutes ago, A8bil said:

Before drawing firm conclusions from these stats, like " Gore is a tough vet, but we're leaving a lot of yards on the field" can I suggest that you look at Gore's highlight film from last year and tell me how many times Gore got through the LOS and had open yards he missed.  99% of the time, Gore is running into several unblocked defenders in front of him....that's why neither he nor any other RB is getting big runs.  RBs need blocks to cut off of.  If you look at the highlight films of the RBs who had big runs last year, most of them outside of McCoy have great downfield blocking.  

hes just not fast anymore though.  he did have a good year, but the fact is that there are much faster backs that had even better years

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 hours ago, Superman said:

 

How about an actual thinkpiece from StampedeBlue? It goes into greater detail about how a homerun threat RB can help. The Colts had the fewest stuffed runs in the league last year, only 13% of their runs stopped at or behind the LOS. They were also worst in open field yardage. Gore is a tough vet, but we're leaving a lot of yards on the field.

http://www.stampedeblue.com/2017/4/7/15223594/how-frank-gore-became-a-liability-for-the-colts

 

And this is from Football Outsiders (referenced in the SB article above). Scroll down. The Colts were #1 running behind the center. Ryan Kelly is the man. Credit to Chud, 59% of our runs were up the middle, sticking to what we do best. We need someone who can bend the corner, though. Hopefully Mack can do that.

 

1 hour ago, Steamboat_Shaun said:

 

I don't have the resources handy, but surprisingly, the rookies on the right side of the line were very good at run blocking last season, even better than the interior and left side. PFF alluded to it right after the season ended, but I'd probably have to spend an hour trying to track that down.

 

That's awesome.  Excited to see what they can do next year

Link to comment
Share on other sites

um...highest percentage of yards before contact and highest breakaway percentages are inversely related.  I don't think you can draw a lot of conclusions about the line from percentage of yards before contact, as it obviously speaks just as much about the back's breakaway potential.  

In any case, what really matters to the team's success is yards per carry.  The line makes big holes AND/OR the back breaks away, you get more yards per carry.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, aaron11 said:

hes just not fast anymore though.  he did have a good year, but the fact is that there are much faster backs that had even better years

Thanks for your opinion.   I think you are wrongly assessing Gore, and the importance of speed.  Look at the flea flicker play against the Titans last year, look at the players chasing Gore and look at the distances they had to run.  Gore out ran Williamson (4.66 40) and Adore Jackson (4.42) couldn't catch him.  Gore is still running about a 4.6-4.65 40 time.  Is that good enough to have big breakaway runs? Ajayi had the most (4) 40+ yd runs last year.  He's a 4.58 40 guy.  Blount tied for second most with 3, and he's at best a 4.7 guy.  Other guys with 3:  Isaiah Crowell (4.57); Jeremy Hill (4.66).  There are more "slow" guys with 40+ yard runs than "fast" guys (Elliott and McCoy).

 

So, you have to ask yourself why other slow guys are popping off big runs, but Gore isn't.  To that, I ask, did you look at the 2016 highlight film as I suggested?  Look at it and come back and identify the runs where Gore had openings for a big run and couldn't exploit them because of his speed.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, A8bil said:

Thanks for your opinion.   I think you are wrongly assessing Gore, and the importance of speed.  Look at the flea flicker play against the Titans last year, look at the players chasing Gore and look at the distances they had to run.  Gore out ran Williamson (4.66 40) and Adore Jackson (4.42) couldn't catch him.  Gore is still running about a 4.6-4.65 40 time.  Is that good enough to have big breakaway runs? Ajayi had the most (4) 40+ yd runs last year.  He's a 4.58 40 guy.  Blount tied for second most with 3, and he's at best a 4.7 guy.  Other guys with 3:  Isaiah Crowell (4.57); Jeremy Hill (4.66).  There are more "slow" guys with 40+ yard runs than "fast" guys (Elliott and McCoy).

 

So, you have to ask yourself why other slow guys are popping off big runs, but Gore isn't.  To that, I ask, did you look at the 2016 highlight film as I suggested?  Look at it and come back and identify the runs where Gore had openings for a big run and couldn't exploit them because of his speed.  

gore was all alone on that play, no defender had an angle on him

 

luck even said the same thing, gore was all by him self so he dumped it off rather than throw it away.  i still think hes a heck of a player but that doesnt mean we cant get faster

 

you are welcome for the opinion, thanks for yours too i guess

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, aaron11 said:

gore was all alone on that play, no defender had an angle on him

 

luck even said the same thing, gore was all by him self so he dumped it off rather than throw it away.  i still think hes a heck of a player but that doesnt mean we cant get faster

 

you are welcome for the opinion, thanks for yours too i guess

Don't understand your response...the point of mentioning that play was not that Gore was or was not alone, but to use real game footage to show how fast Gore still is.  Gore started at the Colts 48 and ran at an angle to the sidelines.  Williamson and Jackson started at the titans 42.  Measuring the distances, Gore had to run farther than Williamson and a little less than Jackson...and Gore wasn't caught by either.  That gives perspective on his actual speed....right now...age 34.  

 

Again, however, I made the point that most fans don't appreciate is that speed does not correlate strongly with big runs.  You want to get faster at the RB, but the evidence shows that most of the big runs are by RBs who run 4.6 or so.  So why pine for speed?  Why not identify what is actually not allowing big runs and correct that?  I have asked that people look at Gore's highlight film.  I think what you'll find is that when Gore gets through the LOS, he's facing a wall of unblocked defenders.  That's a problem.  Guys like Blount, Ajayi, Crowell and Hill typically have great downfield blocking.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, A8bil said:

Don't understand your response...the point of mentioning that play was not that Gore was or was not alone, but to use real game footage to show how fast Gore still is.  Gore started at the Colts 48 and ran at an angle to the sidelines.  Williamson and Jackson started at the titans 42.  Measuring the distances, Gore had to run farther than Williamson and a little less than Jackson...and Gore wasn't caught by either.  That gives perspective on his actual speed....right now...age 34.  

 

Again, however, I made the point that most fans don't appreciate is that speed does not correlate strongly with big runs.  You want to get faster at the RB, but the evidence shows that most of the big runs are by RBs who run 4.6 or so.  So why pine for speed?  Why not identify what is actually not allowing big runs and correct that?  I have asked that people look at Gore's highlight film.  I think what you'll find is that when Gore gets through the LOS, he's facing a wall of unblocked defenders.  That's a problem.  Guys like Blount, Ajayi, Crowell and Hill typically have great downfield blocking.   


he wasnt caught because they took bad angles and any ball carrier with that much room should make a big play. 

 

the backs with the most big plays last year were elliot, howard, ajayi and bell.  all have sub 4.5 40 times

 

blount was ninth place in big plays, the guys at the top of the list are all fast and they have good lines.  you really need both to get lots of big plays

 

https://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/player-rushing-big-plays-statistics/2016/

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, aaron11 said:


he wasnt caught because they took bad angles and any ball carrier with that much room should make a big play. 

 

the backs with the most big plays last year were elliot, howard, ajayi and bell.  all have sub 4.5 40 times

 

blount was ninth place in big plays, the guys at the top of the list are all fast and they have good lines.  you really need both to get lots of big plays

 

https://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/player-rushing-big-plays-statistics/2016/

 

 

What?  Where are you pulling this stuff from?  Bell ran 4.6 at the combine.  Howard ran 4.59.  Ajayi a 4.57.  None of them are sub-4.5 40.  It seems like you are winging your opinions without  checking the facts.

 

And 10 yard runs are NOT big plays, and have very little to do with speed, but even if they were 7 of the top 11 are over 4.55 guys.  Same thing at 20+...most of the backs are right around 4.6 40s.  So again, the point stands:  speed it not the reason for "big plays."    

 

And bad angles on that Titans' play...really?  They were all sprinting downfield in more or less a straight line, but if someone takes a bad angle, it's typically because the runner is faster than the tackler expected--doesn't that argue in favor of Gore being faster than expected?

 

My point remains,..they all need good blocking as the LOS, but they also need downfield blocks.  The colts aren't giving the downfield blocks which is why Gore only got one 20+ yard last year, not his speed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, A8bil said:

What?  Where are you pulling this stuff from?  Bell ran 4.6 at the combine.  Howard ran 4.59.  Ajayi a 4.57.  None of them are sub-4.5 40.  It seems like you just want to wing your opinions without even checking the facts.

 

 

 

i checked the facts, the combine is not the end all be all either

 

bell 4.6 http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=105251&draftyear=2013&genpos=RB

 

elliot has ran as low as 4.32

 

Ajayi 4.42 http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=120046&draftyear=2015&genpos=RB

 

speed is absolutely a factor in big plays, you can repeat otherwise as much as you want, but that doesnt make it true

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, aaron11 said:

 

i checked the facts, the combine is not the end all be all either

 

bell 4.6 http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=105251&draftyear=2013&genpos=RB

 

elliot has ran as low as 4.32

 

Ajayi 4.42 http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=120046&draftyear=2015&genpos=RB

 

speed is absolutely a factor in big plays, you can repeat otherwise as much as you want, but that doesnt make it true

You clearly don't want to undermine your beliefs...no matter how many "unofficial" times you cite, the point remains that so-called slow backs are putting up just as many big runs as supposed "fast" backs.  When you can explain that logically, get back to me. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, A8bil said:

You clearly don't want to undermine your beliefs...no matter how many "unofficial" times you cite, the point remains that so-called slow backs are putting up just as many big runs as supposed "fast" backs.  When you can explain that logically, get back to me. 

the combine is not "official" its just one run out of many

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, A8bil said:

Gore out ran Williamson (4.66 40) and Adore Jackson (4.42) couldn't catch him.

 

1 hour ago, A8bil said:

Williamson and Jackson started at the titans 42.  Measuring the distances, Gore had to run farther than Williamson and a little less than Jackson...and Gore wasn't caught by either.

 

Adoree Jackson was just drafted less than 2 months ago.  I don't think he's the one Gore out-ran.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am of the camp that the Colts Oline is better than many fans on this board think but I think this may fall into that nearly worthless stat category.  None of the top 3 teams in this category had stellar offenses (although the Colts offense was good last year) and none of the three teams had a winning record.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

 nonsense!  Gore being great at finding holes is why we had so few stuffs.
 And the lack of athleticism of our guards in particular was why we couldn`t get any blocking, yardage outside
or up field. Still waiting on Mewhort to get out and make a good block in the open field. Good was just as slow.
 You can`t fix Mewort being slow. Haeg can run but lol on his weight and strength being there. Go Joe.

 

Gore isn't the only RB in the league who can find holes. Him getting 78% of the carries limited the opportunities for other backs to find holes. But he does deserve credit for being so good at getting positive yardage.

 

No one is claiming the OL is great at run blocking, but these results were better than 2015 (and again, various reasons for that, also). 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

48 minutes ago, CheezyColt said:

 

 

Adoree Jackson was just drafted less than 2 months ago.  I don't think he's the one Gore out-ran.

You are absolutely right.  It was Rashad Johnson .. a 4.53 combine guy.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, il vecchio said:

um...highest percentage of yards before contact and highest breakaway percentages are inversely related.  I don't think you can draw a lot of conclusions about the line from percentage of yards before contact, as it obviously speaks just as much about the back's breakaway potential.  

In any case, what really matters to the team's success is yards per carry.  The line makes big holes AND/OR the back breaks away, you get more yards per carry.

 

Percentage of yards before contact coupled with fewest stuffs leads me to conclude that the run blocking does a good job of getting the backs past the LOS without getting hit. 

 

Watching the games, it's easy to see that Gore doesn't have breakaway ability. And when you combine that with so few breakaway yards, it's obvious that we're leaving yards out there. His vision and toughness gets him opportunities that a lesser back might not get, but he doesn't maximize those opportunities due to his lack of speed. You can't just replace him with a faster back and expect more breakaways, but if a faster back can find the hole even close to the way Gore can, we'll see bigger gains on the ground.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, gspdx said:

This stat concerns me and I'm not sure we want to be a part of this.  We are in a stat where the only other teams are the Bills and the Titans?!

 

???
 

The Bills averaged a league best 164 yards/game, and a league best 5.3 yards/carry. The Titans were third with 137 yards/game and tied for fourth with 4.6 yards/carry.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, Coffeedrinker said:

None of the top 3 teams in this category had stellar offenses (although the Colts offense was good last year) and none of the three teams had a winning record.

 

So?

 

The Colts didn't have a winning record because the defense was bad. There are a lot of factors that go into winning and overall offensive excellence. No one is offering this as a silver bullet. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

So?

 

The Colts didn't have a winning record because the defense was bad. There are a lot of factors that go into winning and overall offensive excellence. No one is offering this as a silver bullet. 

Didn't suggest they were.  But my first comment was none of the top three teams in this category had stellar offenses.

 

So, if there is no correlation between an offensive stat and effective offense then the stat is a worthless stat.

 

I think the oline is on the right track.  I thought that before I saw this stat.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Coffeedrinker said:

So, if there is no correlation between an offensive stat and effective offense then the stat is a worthless stat.

 

I think the oline is on the right track.  I thought that before I saw this stat.

 

I think there is a correlation. Causation is a different story.

 

I also think we have a mostly effective offense. The issues that hold us back, IMO, are the passing concepts putting so much pressure on the OL (leading to far too many pressures on the QB), and to a lesser extent, a lack of variety in the run game. I've been pining for a change back for a long time now. Boom Herron had a shot, but he fumbled too much and couldn't stay healthy.

 

To the bolded, we agree. 

 

My point was simply that if we have backs who can pressure defenses with their speed, both around the corner and in the second level, the rushing offense should be more effective.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Superman said:

 

Percentage of yards before contact coupled with fewest stuffs leads me to conclude that the run blocking does a good job of getting the backs past the LOS without getting hit. 

 

Watching the games, it's easy to see that Gore doesn't have breakaway ability. And when you combine that with so few breakaway yards, it's obvious that we're leaving yards out there. His vision and toughness gets him opportunities that a lesser back might not get, but he doesn't maximize those opportunities due to his lack of speed. You can't just replace him with a faster back and expect more breakaways, but if a faster back can find the hole even close to the way Gore can, we'll see bigger gains on the ground.

I think the stat you might want to use is Average yards before contact instead of Percentage of yards before contact.  The Average stat should be available somewhere as it would have to be used to calculate Percentage.  The Average stat will give you an absolute number and it removes the skew from breakaways.  As you point out, Gore isn't speedy and will never have many breakaway yards, or yards after contact.  The result of that is the Colts' percentage of yards before contact skews high, all other things being equal when comparing other teams.

 

Another stat which might also be helpful in assessing offensive lines would be percentage of run plays which yield negative yards.  I think we might all agree that if a team has a lot of negative runs, they probably don't have a great line and the defense is likely getting a lot of early penetration.  The only caution here with comparisons to other teams is that some running backs tend to dance around and look for a big break instead of hitting it hard right away.  The dancers will probably accumulate more plays of lost yardage, even if they might attain higher runs per carry.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 hours ago, Superman said:

 

???
 

The Bills averaged a league best 164 yards/game, and a league best 5.3 yards/carry. The Titans were third with 137 yards/game and tied for fourth with 4.6 yards/carry.

 

I was messing around.  I don't want the Colts to be in any conversation where it is the Bills and Titans.  I want the Colts in a conversation when it's the Pats and Steelers.  Or some other winning program.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...