What Is Your Preferred Pm Scenario?

[UndecidedFrog]

Scenario A1: Keep PM, even with the current uncertainty about his performance ability (nerve/arm issue), by paying PM the $28MM option bonus due March 8. Trade the #1 overall pick and get a boatload of other draft picks with which to fill holes to improve the team.

Scenario A2: Try to keep PM, even with the current uncertainty about his performance ability (nerve/arm issue), by not paying PM the $28MM option bonus due March 8, release PM and negotiate a new, reduced contract with him before April 26. If this is done, trade the #1 overall pick and get a boatload of other draft picks with which to fill holes to improve the team (default to scenario A1). If this cannot be done, use the #1 overall pick to draft PM's replacement at QB (default to scenario B).

Scenario B: Release PM before the option bonus is due, and use the #1 overall pick to draft PM's replacement at QB.

Scenario C: Keep PM, even with the current uncertainty about his performance ability (nerve/arm issue), by paying PM the $28MM option bonus due March 8. And, use the #1 overall pick to draft PM's eventual replacement at QB.

Scenario D: Keep PM, even with the current uncertainty about his performance ability (nerve/arm issue), by paying PM the $28MM option bonus due March 8. Use the #1 overall pick to draft a highly-rated non-QB prospect to fill a position of need.

Please provide your ranked preferences.

Thanks.

[braveheartcolt]

Dont care. I'm not an expert or own a crystal ball. As long as Manning and Irsay keep it zipped and sort out the deal behind closed doors, I'll accept what happens. Like us all, I have no choice or say in the matter....

[Scipio]

A2 is the best scenario

Although I still believe we can do A2 and also draft Luck.

[shakedownstreet]

Scenario E: he stays here & we win the next five superbowls

[Dustin]

Preferred or best option?

Preferred- C

Best- B

[21isSuperman]

I prefer C

[UndecidedFrog]

Scenario E: he stays here & we win the next five superbowls

That's scenario A1

[Susie Q]

This is my pick and let the draft be what Irsay wants. This was what to do about the PM issue. Right?

Scenario A2: Try to keep PM, even with the current uncertainty about his performance ability (nerve/arm issue), by not paying PM the $28MM option bonus due March 8, release PM and negotiate a new, reduced contract with him before April 26

Would be nice if we could do this but it may not be what Peyton wants. If not then C

[P-Money]

Scenario F - Lock Manning and Irsay in a cave with a couple of receivers and a team doctor and let them out on March 8!

[KyFan18]

A1

D

C

A2

B

[presto123]

If his arm never makes it all the way back(I know that won't happen by March 8) my preference is retirement. I don't want to see Manning play a last few years at a shell of his former self.

[ruksak]

C

Keep the best QB of all time while drafting the best QB prospect since the greatest QB of all time. Whatever must be done, sacrificed or finagled to accomplish this.......

[Hoosier]

Scenario C: Keep PM, even with the current uncertainty about his performance ability (nerve/arm issue), by paying PM the $28MM option bonus due March 8. And, use the #1 overall pick to draft PM's eventual replacement at QB.

This.

[HungarianColtsFan]

Scenario C

Only time will tell which scenario comes true...

[pacolts56]

1. B - the cleanest scenario with the greatest degree of clarity.... a full rebuild of the Colts.

2. A2 - on the outside chance that Peyton agrees to come back under a much more cap-friendly contract and a fair chance to finish his career as a Colt.

The above scenarios at least allow for the lowest amount of salary cap commitment and the opportunity to draft Luck or build elsewhere on the roster.

But until we get OFFICIAL word that Peyton is fully healed....including full nerve regeneration....I simply do not consider it wise in any way to pay him the 28 million dollar bonus.

If that full healing can happen by March 8th....great.

If not....then we should thank Peyton for a great 14 years and move forward.

[Malakai432]

C

[18Manning]

A2 (assuming Peyton will significantly reduce his contract) and draft Luck. Luck works under Peyton for a couple of years and Peyton retires a Colt. When I say significant, I mean a contract for a couple of years for a few million (4-5 paying out the majority after we know he's can play).

[Balzer40]

My preferred scenario or anybody else's here on this forum don't mean anything so I'll pick the most realistic scenario as my answer. B

[Deckguy32671]

I would like to see Peyton come to the Ravens, to give me a reason to root for the home team!!!!!

[Coltsman1788]

As a fan I prefer Option C (no one really wants to see Peyton go). But from a business perspective I believe Option B is the best for the long run. I will support whatever decision Irsay believes is in the best interest of the franchise going forward.

[torgodog]

A2: Honestly, I think Peyton is avoiding renegotiation like he did neck fusion surgery in the preseason. But it seems inevitable. He and Irsay could work out a fair and creative deal.

C

A1

D

B

[hawkeyes]

At this point I am actually pretty sick of hearing about him! The guy goes on and on about how he didn't want to distract from the SB yet a press release or interview has occurred almost every day the last couple of weeks. This team is rebuilding and that doesn't leave much room for a washed up QB that has no arm strength.

[BmoreColt]

A3

A1 in combination with A2. If he would be willing to negotiate, use that money for some impact quality signings to help bolster the team, but trading the pick for the bounty, so mine is called A3!

[sb2001]

C

[Susie Q]

At this point I am actually pretty sick of hearing about him! The guy goes on and on about how he didn't want to distract from the SB yet a press release or interview has occurred almost every day the last couple of weeks. This team is rebuilding and that doesn't leave much room for a washed up QB that has no arm strength.

Nice Post

[JWF]

C

But its going to be insanely hard to make it work.

[Peyton and Eli fan]

At this point I am actually pretty sick of hearing about him! The guy goes on and on about how he didn't want to distract from the SB yet a press release or interview has occurred almost every day the last couple of weeks. This team is rebuilding and that doesn't leave much room for a washed up QB that has no arm strength.

- 1 really nice interview last week about how much he was sad to see his friends leaving but that he's at peace with whatever the outcome

- 1 interview for gaterade that was long ago agreed to in which he was completely politically correct and gave out no info

- 1 leak (yes, probably from Peyton) that he was cleared to play contrary to all of the rumors the he needs to retire.

[Jay Roland]

Actually i am tried of all of this. Isay and PM need to keep this out of the public although the media is partly to blame for all this. What ever happens happens to m at this point

[Warhorse]

I agree with Shakedown, option E.

[geinsteder]

A2 seems workable..

[funktacious2]

Scenario A2: Try to keep PM, even with the current uncertainty about his performance ability (nerve/arm issue), by not paying PM the $28MM option bonus due March 8, release PM and negotiate a new, reduced contract with him before April 26. If this is done, trade the #1 overall pick and get a boatload of other draft picks with which to fill holes to improve the team (default to scenario A1). If this cannot be done, use the #1 overall pick to draft PM's replacement at QB (default to scenario B).

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, I'm no expert on the salary cap, but I don't think that Scenario A2 is even remotely doable. I thought even with not paying Manning by March 8th we incur $10.4mil in "dead money" against the cap (we save some 6mil though w/o him), so to lose that money and have to pay him in an additional contract would be a big finacial blow. If I'm wrong someone should take this opportunity educate me (Preferably someone who actually knows what they're talking about not just they think they know what they're talking about), but my brief research says even if we don't pay him we still have pay this 10mil

[ruksak]

At this point I am actually pretty sick of hearing about him! The guy goes on and on about how he didn't want to distract from the SB yet a press release or interview has occurred almost every day the last couple of weeks. This team is rebuilding and that doesn't leave much room for a washed up QB that has no arm strength.

lol .....what?

"Washed up QB that has no arm strength"?

Where in the heck did you contrive that nonsense?

[UndecidedFrog]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, I'm no expert on the salary cap, but I don't think that Scenario A2 is even remotely doable. I thought even with not paying Manning by March 8th we incur $10.4mil in "dead money" against the cap (we save some 6mil though w/o him), so to lose that money and have to pay him in an additional contract would be a big finacial blow. If I'm wrong someone should take this opportunity educate me (Preferably someone who actually knows what they're talking about not just they think they know what they're talking about), but my brief research says even if we don't pay him we still have pay this 10mil

If we cut PM before June1, 2012, the salary cap hit is $10.4MM. That's $6.6MM better than if we kept him through the season by paying him the option bonus and his 2012 salary which, together, was projected at a total of $17MM to the cap.

Presumably a new contract will have to be much smaller than the current one such that PM will have to agree to a contract that would not hit the 2012 salary cap by more than $6.6MM, and preferably less for a shorter term.

Now, with these constraints, one must make a very good argument to convince PM of actually accepting this.

[Motion3]

Major doubts A2 will come to pass. You only have to read between the lines when Peyton's agent indicates they are unwilling to push back to March 8th date.

[torgodog]

Now, with these constraints, one must make a very good argument to convince PM of actually accepting this.

This is off the top of my head, but could Irsay guarantee Peyton that the financial hit he'd be taking (like $6.6MM) would be invested in FA players for his offensive line? That way the money would be an investment for getting him a championship. For instance, if we needed some extra cash to reach an agreement for a 2 yr deal with Reggie Wayne (that is if Peyton thinks Reggie can help him win) then that is where some of the money goes. As long as the money goes towards passing targets and giving Peyton more throwing time that might give Peyton something to consider.

[UndecidedFrog]

This is off the top of my head, but could Irsay guarantee Peyton that the financial hit he'd be taking (like $6.6MM) would be invested in FA players for his offensive line? That way the money would be an investment for getting him a championship. For instance, if we needed some extra cash to reach an agreement for a 2 yr deal with Reggie Wayne (that is if Peyton thinks Reggie can help him win) then that is where some of the money goes. As long as the money goes towards passing targets and giving Peyton more throwing time that might give something Peyton to consider.

You are mistaken. Peyton would be taking much more than a $6,6MM financial hit.

Current PM contract:

Term of contract = 5 years

2011: $20 signing bonus* + $3 roster bonus + $3.4 annual salary = $26.4 real dollars

2012: $28 option bonus* + $7.4 annual salary = $35.4 real dollars

2013: $8.4 annual salary = $8.4 real dollars

2014: $9.4 annual salary = $9.4 real dollars

2015: $10.4 annual salary = $10.4 real dollars

Total over term of contract = $90 real dollars

So in terms of real dollars, PM already has the $26.4MM from 2011. And he will have to renegotiate the remaining $63.6MM over the remaining 4 years into something much less and over a shorter number of years.

To give you a better Idea of the salary cap issue (different than real dollars above):

* are items that become pro-rated over the term of the contract for determining salary cap hits.

Signing bonus pro-ration: $20/5 years = $4 each year for 5 years

Option bonus pro-ration: $28/5 years = $5.6 each year for 5 years

2011: $4 pro-rated portion of signing bonus* + $5.6 pro-rated portion of option bonus* +$3 roster bonus + $3.4 annual salary = $16 cap hit

2012: $4 pro-rated portion of signing bonus* + $5.6 pro-rated portion of option bonus* + $7.4 annual salary = $17 cap hit

2013: $4 pro-rated portion of signing bonus* + $5.6 pro-rated portion of option bonus* + $8.4 annual salary = $18 cap hit

2014: $4 pro-rated portion of signing bonus* + $5.6 pro-rated portion of option bonus* + $9.4 annual salary = $19 cap hit

2015: $4 pro-rated portion of signing bonus* + $5.6 pro-rated portion of option bonus* +$10.4 annual salary = $20 cap hit

Total over term of contract = $90 cap hit

How do you suggest (if you were Irsay/Grigson) structuring a new deal that will be more favorable to the salary cap than the old deal?

[ruksak]

You are mistaken. Peyton would be taking much more than a $6,6MM financial hit.

Current PM contract:

Term of contract = 5 years

2011: $20 signing bonus* + $3 roster bonus + $3.4 annual salary = $26.4 real dollars

2012: $28 option bonus* + $7.4 annual salary = $35.4 real dollars

2013: $8.4 annual salary = $8.4 real dollars

2014: $9.4 annual salary = $9.4 real dollars

2015: $10.4 annual salary = $10.4 real dollars

Total over term of contract = $90 real dollars

So in terms of real dollars, PM already has the $26.4MM from 2011. And he will have to renegotiate the remaining $63.6MM over 5 years into something much less and over a shorter number of years.

To give you a better Idea of the salary cap issue (different than real dollars above):

* are items that become pro-rated over the term of the contract for determining salary cap hits.

Signing bonus pro-ration: $20/5 years = $4 each year for 5 years

Option bonus pro-ration: $28/5 years = $5.6 each year for 5 years

2011: $4 pro-rated portion of signing bonus* + $5.6 pro-rated portion of option bonus* +$3 roster bonus + $3.4 annual salary = $16 cap hit

2012: $4 pro-rated portion of signing bonus* + $5.6 pro-rated portion of option bonus* + $7.4 annual salary = $17 cap hit

2013: $4 pro-rated portion of signing bonus* + $5.6 pro-rated portion of option bonus* + $8.4 annual salary = $18 cap hit

2014: $4 pro-rated portion of signing bonus* + $5.6 pro-rated portion of option bonus* + $9.4 annual salary = $19 cap hit

2015: $4 pro-rated portion of signing bonus* + $5.6 pro-rated portion of option bonus* +$10.4 annual salary = $20 cap hit

Total over term of contract = $90 cap hit

How do you suggest (if you were Irsay/Grigson) structuring a new deal that will be more favorable to the salary cap than the old deal?

math is hard

[UndecidedFrog]

math is hard

LOL, only to those who aren't used to it.

[Motion3]

Here are some of the options:

SCENARIO 1: Colts keep Manning for 2012 and cut him in 2013

Manning will be paid $35,400,000

$28,000,000 option bonus

$7,400,000 base salary

His cap hit will be $17,000,000 in 2012. In 2013, he would be cut. The remainder of his signing bonus and roster bonus would accelerate to 2013 for a $28,800,000 cap hit

SCENARIO 2: Colts cut Manning before 3/8/12

Manning will receive $0 payment in 2012.

However, the cap hit will be $16,000,000 (due to the remainder of the hit for his signing bonus)

SCENARIO 3: Colts cut Manning between 3/8/12 and 6/1/12 cut OR trade Manning between 3/15/12 and 6/1/12.

Manning will receive $28,000,000 from the Colts along with that seasons base salary from the other team if traded.

The cap hit would be $38,400,000 ($16,000,000 of signing bonus + $22,400,000 of remaining cap hit for the option bonus).

SCENARIO 4: Colts cut or trade Manning between 6/1/12 and the start of football.

Manning will receive $28,000,000 from the Colts along with that seasons base salary from the other team if traded.

The cap hit would be $9,600,000 in 2012 and yet another $28,800,000 in 2013.

[FireJimCaldwell]

Here are some of the options:

SCENARIO 1: Colts keep Manning for 2012 and cut him in 2013

Manning will be paid $35,400,000

$28,000,000 option bonus

$7,400,000 base salary

His cap hit will be $17,000,000 in 2012. In 2013, he would be cut. The remainder of his signing bonus and roster bonus would accelerate to 2013 for a $28,800,000 cap hit

SCENARIO 2: Colts cut Manning before 3/8/12

Manning will receive $0 payment in 2012.

However, the cap hit will be $16,000,000 (due to the remainder of the hit for his signing bonus)

SCENARIO 3: Colts cut Manning between 3/8/12 and 6/1/12 cut OR trade Manning between 3/15/12 and 6/1/12.

Manning will receive $28,000,000 from the Colts along with that seasons base salary from the other team if traded.

The cap hit would be $38,400,000 ($16,000,000 of signing bonus + $22,400,000 of remaining cap hit for the option bonus).

SCENARIO 4: Colts cut or trade Manning between 6/1/12 and the start of football.

Manning will receive $28,000,000 from the Colts along with that seasons base salary from the other team if traded.

The cap hit would be $9,600,000 in 2012 and yet another $28,800,000 in 2013.

Some of that is questionable.