PFF Steve Palazzolo Mock

[JRnINDY]

At least one mock has us selecting Spence.

https://t.co/ySDVcWCEhW

 

18. Indianapolis Colts – Noah Spence, OLB, Eastern Kentucky

Another wild card in this draft, Spence may be off a number of team boards due to off-field concerns and an underwhelming combine, but a draft devoid of elite edge rushers may push him back into the first round. The Colts are lacking any burst off the edge, but with capable run-stopping outside linebackers on the roster, this may be the perfect spot for Spence to ease in as a situational pass rusher as he develops against the run. He dominated Senior Bowl week while notching eight pressures in two games against FBS competition.

[danlhart87]

I really don't understand the Spence hype

[Boiler_Colt]

Reminds me of Shane Ray last year, off field concerns and didn't test well. The Colts reportedly were interested in drafting Ray last year though.

[danlhart87]

None of the pass rushers in round 1 excite me.

Give me Billings Alexander Apple or top OL and I'll be happy

Correa or Calhoun would be my go to pick in 2nd.

[Surge89]

42 minutes ago, danlhart87 said:

I really don't understand the Spence hype

 

Me either.

 

A good pass rusher needs to be athletically explosive the one thing Spence showed that he isn't and yet people still are still drooling over him.  When the draft gives you DTs and Corners you take the best you can find not take the best of the others and then pick from the middle of those deep positions... this logic baffles me 

[Defjamz26]

15 minutes ago, Surge89 said:

 

Me either.

 

A good pass rusher needs to be athletically explosive the one thing Spence showed that he isn't and yet people still are still drooling over him.  When the draft gives you DTs and Corners you take the best you can find not take the best of the others and then pick from the middle of those deep positions... this logic baffles me 

I'm in the same boat.

 

I know people will say it's all about the tape, but if you're supposed to be a blue chip edge rusher, you should test well. Fowler and Mack blew their combines out the water.

 

And not to mention the huge character red flags. I'm not sure why people are excited about him.

[crazycolt1]

18 minutes ago, Surge89 said:

 

Me either.

 

A good pass rusher needs to be athletically explosive the one thing Spence showed that he isn't and yet people still are still drooling over him.  When the draft gives you DTs and Corners you take the best you can find not take the best of the others and then pick from the middle of those deep positions... this logic baffles me 

I have to agree with your comment. There seems that a lot of players are built up to be the next coming of a lot of players who have become good players in the past. This is a whole new ball game and none of us really know for sure how any of them are going to work out. Each pick is a gamble. There have been picks from round one all the way down who have become good but for every one of them there is a bust. Comparing players is a speculation at best. I am sure that the Chargers thought Leaf was going to be a great QB. There was no reason for them not to think that. I just used him as an example but I think we can all see my point. For those who thought otherwise it is said with using hindsight. I try to avoid making predictions because history has show us over and over that even the so called experts don't even know.

[NewColtsFan]

1 hour ago, danlhart87 said:

I really don't understand the Spence hype

 

Not sure what's hard to understand.

 

He's projects as the best pass rusher in the draft and he's a scheme fit.

 

What's hard to understand?

 

[Stephen]

I like darron Lee dude will be a beast

[danlhart87]

Isn't Lee and Floyd undersized and more projected into a 43

[richard pallo]

Can't see it.  Not worth the risk.  I thought I read where he didn't interview too well at the combine.

[Gavin]

Floyd is a rush linebacker, I don't think there should be any debate out that and he gained size

[Boiler_Colt]

7 minutes ago, danlhart87 said:

Isn't Lee and Floyd undersized and more projected into a 43

Lee isnt that much lighter than D'Qwell and Freeman. While he could fit in a 3-4, his ideal fit would be as a 4-3 Will. He would be a sideline to sideline player for sure, better than Freeman, but might get worked in the run game.

[Indy Fan]

1 hour ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Not sure what's hard to understand.

 

He's projects as the best pass rusher in the draft and he's a scheme fit.

 

What's hard to understand?

 

I think it comes down to value. Spence didn't test well and has a ton of red flags. He is one of the best pass rushers in this class but this class isn't that loaded with great pass rushers. It's definitely one of those grey areas as people will use the logical he has been clean for some time but how many of you would quit using drugs in order to secure a vast amount of financial wealth? Could go both ways so you definitely have to look at both sides. 

[NewColtsFan]

Just now, Indy Fan said:

I think it comes down to value. Spence didn't test well and has a ton of red flags. He is one of the best pass rushers in this class but this class isn't that loaded with great pass rushers. It's definitely one of those grey areas as people will use the logical he has been clean for some time but how many of you would quit using drugs in order to secure a vast amount of financial wealth? Could go both ways so you definitely have to look at both sides. 

 

Hey,  I agree with you....    I know he didn't test all that well....    and I think it's quite possible that Grigson won't draft Spence even if he's still available when we pick because of the Red Flag Character concerns that surround him.     

 

Heck, we just cut Newsome over a couple of stupid marijuana incidents....    so character still counts with this administration.....  and that may make Spence almost undraftable unless he somehow falls to the 5th round,  which I think there is zero chance of that happening.....

 

But Spence does have undeniable talent....   and he's a scheme fit....    hard to see him slipping entirely out of the first round unless there is much more in his file than we fans current know......

 

[krunk]

2 hours ago, Surge89 said:

 

Me either.

 

A good pass rusher needs to be athletically explosive the one thing Spence showed that he isn't and yet people still are still drooling over him.  When the draft gives you DTs and Corners you take the best you can find not take the best of the others and then pick from the middle of those deep positions... this logic baffles me 

 

 

So what was bad about his combine other than his 40?  It was still better than Bosa, and he's still faster than Terrell Suggs.  Are we to say Terrell Suggs is no pass rusher because of his 40?  We'd be lying wouldn't we?  Suggs runs a 4.84 and he didn't even do that until his pro day. His combine was worse.

 

 

Ozzie Newsome seems to have had no problems meeting with Spence unlike the Colts.  He knows all that combine stuff is mostly B.S.

 

 

"Suggs scared off some teams with his 40-yard dash in the 4.8-second range. It’s not a terrible time, but it was slower than some expected and caused some concern over one of the top players in the draft. Suggs had an average vertical jump (33 inches) and just 19 bench press reps of 225 pounds – below the average. Suggs slid a little bit in the draft and was scooped up by the Ravens at pick No. 10. He’s an example of how combine results should be taken with a grain of salt."

 

 

Spence put up better numbers than Suggs

 

[Gavin]

Those drug test Spence failed were back in 2013...Almost 3 years ago and as far as we know he showed up clean at the Combine. Spence does not win with great acceleration or anticipation off the snap (That's Leonard Floyd whos not as technically sound as Spence..Spence is actually kinda slow off the snap often),He wins with polished pass rush rep

[Indy Fan]

51 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Hey,  I agree with you....    I know he didn't test all that well....    and I think it's quite possible that Grigson won't draft Spence even if he's still available when we pick because of the Red Flag Character concerns that surround him.     

 

Heck, we just cut Newsome over a couple of stupid marijuana incidents....    so character still counts with this administration.....  and that may make Spence almost undraftable unless he somehow falls to the 5th round,  which I think there is zero chance of that happening.....

 

But Spence does have undeniable talent....   and he's a scheme fit....    hard to see him slipping entirely out of the first round unless there is much more in his file than we fans current know......

 

I would draft him in the second. I would actually draft him in the very tail end of the first just ensure I had leverage on him for five years. 18 overall is a little too steep for my liking. All depends on what happened in those interviews which is all smoke and mirrors. Media said it didn't go to well for Spence but truthfully we won't know until we hear his name called. Floyd scares me a bit due to his age and that Georgia moved him around that defense too much so he never really got to fully develop. Hopefully Grigson picks up some incredible value in FA so we can go BPA in the draft. Really hoping to fortify our O-Line and get as many impact defense players as possible.

[Defjamz26]

53 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Hey,  I agree with you....    I know he didn't test all that well....    and I think it's quite possible that Grigson won't draft Spence even if he's still available when we pick because of the Red Flag Character concerns that surround him.     

 

Heck, we just cut Newsome over a couple of stupid marijuana incidents....    so character still counts with this administration.....  and that may make Spence almost undraftable unless he somehow falls to the 5th round,  which I think there is zero chance of that happening.....

 

But Spence does have undeniable talent....   and he's a scheme fit....    hard to see him slipping entirely out of the first round unless there is much more in his file than we fans current know......

 

Grigson clearly stated that he will absolutely not draft anyone with character issues in the first 3 rounds. It might have been 4, but I know he definitely said they won't look at anyone like that early.

 

Spence probably isn't even on their draft board. And he's not a player worth taking a chance on that early. Maybe if he was Khalil Mack good, but he's not. You won't see Spence I'm Colts blue, that I'm certain of. People just want him because they'd do anything for a pass rusher, even commit Cardinal sins of drafting.

 

If the issues were non-substance related like Peters then he'd be worth the risk. Remember that Mathieu is the exception to the rule,not the rule. There are more Justin Blackmon's than Mathieu's

[COLTS449]

I still love Spence. And I still think he can be the best pass rusher in the entire class. He'll definitely be there at 18 now. But how awesome would it be if we could get him in the 2nd? It seems like a lot of teams are down on him so its definitely possible. Leonard Floyd in the 1st and Noah Spence in the 2nd would be like a dream come true. Heck. We may end up with the best 2 pass rushers in the draft.

[COLTS449]

45 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

Grigson clearly stated that he will absolutely not draft anyone with character issues in the first 3 rounds. It might have been 4, but I know he definitely said they won't look at anyone like that early.

 

Spence probably isn't even on their draft board. And he's not a player worth taking a chance on that early. Maybe if he was Khalil Mack good, but he's not. You won't see Spence I'm Colts blue, that I'm certain of. People just want him because they'd do anything for a pass rusher, even commit Cardinal sins of drafting.

 

If the issues were non-substance related like Peters then he'd be worth the risk. Remember that Mathieu is the exception to the rule,not the rule. There are more Justin Blackmon's than Mathieu's

 

But the thing is man. Spence has put his issues behind him. Like Gavin said the drug issues were 3 years ago. And he's been clean ever since. He's passed every drug test at EKU on a weekly basis. I think he was just young and a little dumb and made some bad choices. But I think he's learned from those bad choices and grown up. I think if somebody hasn't had any issues in 3 years and has came as far as Spence has he deserves to be treated a lot better. I mean this would be like everybody still all tore up about the things Brandan Marshall did a few years back. But people look at Marshall in a whole new light now. As they should.

[Moncrief]

This offseason is tearing us apart

[NewColtsFan]

50 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

Grigson clearly stated that he will absolutely not draft anyone with character issues in the first 3 rounds. It might have been 4, but I know he definitely said they won't look at anyone like that early.

 

Spence probably isn't even on their draft board. And he's not a player worth taking a chance on that early. Maybe if he was Khalil Mack good, but he's not. You won't see Spence I'm Colts blue, that I'm certain of. People just want him because they'd do anything for a pass rusher, even commit Cardinal sins of drafting.

 

If the issues were non-substance related like Peters then he'd be worth the risk. Remember that Mathieu is the exception to the rule,not the rule. There are more Justin Blackmon's than Mathieu's

 

I believe Grigson said he wouldn't draft any more knuckleheads until the 5th round at the earliest....   That's how Newsome slipped in.....

 

But I think the first four rounds,  Grigson wants to be knucklehead-clear.     This past class was knucklehead-free.   All good character kids.....   

 

Now,  can Grigson/Pagano do that again?!?      Let's hope so....

 

 

[Gavin]

12 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

I believe Grigson said he wouldn't draft any more knuckleheads until the 5th round at the earliest....   That's how Newsome slipped in.....

 

But I think the first four rounds,  Grigson wants to be knucklehead-clear.     This past class was knucklehead-free.   All good character kids.....   

 

Now,  can Grigson/Pagano do that again?!?      Let's hope so....

 

 

I think it depends on the off field issues and how long its been since they have occurred. Hugh Thornton was drafted in 2013 as a 3rd round pick who was arrested in 2009 for underage comsumption and just a few months after that was arrested for attempting to us a fake ID. I don't think what Grigson said was accurate, Often times talent dictates you take a risk on a talent, Grigson did with Hugh. Hugh has has been inconsistent to say the least and injured but the physical talent is clearly there

[The Peytonator]

I like Spence and would love to see us take him in the first. I guess I don't see it as a character issue to take a drug that just makes you enjoy yourself for a couple hours, but that's another conversation entirely. Of course, I wouldn't have cut Newsome for what he did, so the organization must see it differently. Noah Spence is a good football player, and that's what matters to me. His mediocre 40 time means nothing as well, and it's been proven countless times. The game isn't played in track shorts.

[Surge89]

3 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Not sure what's hard to understand.

 

He's projects as the best pass rusher in the draft and he's a scheme fit.

 

What's hard to understand?

 

 

It's hard to understand because of the following:

 

#1 he isn't even the best rusher.  Floyd has a better chance and so does Lee (who I'm a big fan of).

 

#2 the options around him are so much higher in value that passing on them seem ill advised. (This is the most important)

 

#3 he has off the field concerns. While they may not be a problem or they may why even take the risk when there is higher talent level DT's and Corners with no off the field issues. 

 

[krunk]

I'm good with getting Spence as long as there is a requirement that the weekly drug tests remain in place. Keep everything in place that has aided in him remaining clean and it should be okay I think.

[Surge89]

2 hours ago, krunk said:

 

 

So what was bad about his combine other than his 40?  It was still better than Bosa, and he's still faster than Terrell Suggs.  Are we to say Terrell Suggs is no pass rusher because of his 40?  We'd be lying wouldn't we?  Suggs runs a 4.84 and he didn't even do that until his pro day. His combine was worse.

 

 

Ozzie Newsome seems to have had no problems meeting with Spence unlike the Colts.  He knows all that combine stuff is mostly B.S.

 

 

"Suggs scared off some teams with his 40-yard dash in the 4.8-second range. It’s not a terrible time, but it was slower than some expected and caused some concern over one of the top players in the draft. Suggs had an average vertical jump (33 inches) and just 19 bench press reps of 225 pounds – below the average. Suggs slid a little bit in the draft and was scooped up by the Ravens at pick No. 10. He’s an example of how combine results should be taken with a grain of salt."

 

 

Spence put up better numbers than Suggs

 

 

You can put up a mountain of a list of rushers that put up relative numbers to suggs and see that he is the outlier. You can put up the numbers for what's considered elite athleticism and they'd probably be a much better odds of production. I'd bet it's closer to 50 percent. 

 

Good example albeit exaggerated is jarvis jones. He measured awful running a 4.9 and 9' something jump and while Spence isn't near as bad his tape says technical guy not burst which is really hard to succeed in the NFL with. You can teach a burst guy technique but you can't make a tech guy more explosive. 

[krunk]

1 hour ago, Surge89 said:

 

You can put up a mountain of a list of rushers that put up relative numbers to suggs and see that he is the outlier. You can put up the numbers for what's considered elite athleticism and they'd probably be a much better odds of production. I'd bet it's closer to 50 percent. 

 

Good example albeit exaggerated is jarvis jones. He measured awful running a 4.9 and 9' something jump and while Spence isn't near as bad his tape says technical guy not burst which is really hard to succeed in the NFL with. You can teach a burst guy technique but you can't make a tech guy more explosive. 

 

I don't believe so much in all that. If you've been given talent you've been given talent. Many examples of guys who are not very fast 40 yard dash guys who have been successful. I'm not putting the guy in some failure bin because of a slow 40 at the combine.  Are we gonna put Bosa in that bin as well?  There are different types of pass rusher. Not everyone is that speed rusher type like Mathis. 

 

I don't believe James Harrison is any of that personally for example. Ideally you want the fast times, but if you see the guy on film beating NFL caliber players consistently then you need to look beyond the 40 because the guy is doing it in a different way.

 

James Harrison - 4.85. Tamba Hali - 4.87

[Defjamz26]

1 hour ago, Gavin said:

I think it depends on the off field issues and how long its been since they have occurred. Hugh Thornton was drafted in 2013 as a 3rd round pick who was arrested in 2009 for underage comsumption and just a few months after that was arrested for attempting to us a fake ID. I don't think what Grigson said was accurate, Often times talent dictates you take a risk on a talent, Grigson did with Hugh. Hugh has has been inconsistent to say the least and injured but the physical talent is clearly there

I agree. I think if its substance abuse related then he won't risk it. But if it's something like Aldolphus Washington apparently soliciting a prostitute, he might be okay spending a 3rd or 4th. Something like that can be a one time thing.

 

But substance abuse can always pop up again.

[Indy Fan]

14 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

I agree. I think if its substance abuse related then he won't risk it. But if it's something like Aldolphus Washington apparently soliciting a prostitute, he might be okay spending a 3rd or 4th. Something like that can be a one time thing.

 

But substance abuse can always pop up again.

I don't know about that. I'm sure if you took a poll of how many individuals drank underage versus how many hired a hooker the results would be tilted toward the drinking. I personally would favor the substance abuse because there's counseling, mentorships, and can be tested regularly to hopefully hinder the abuse. Soliciting a prostitute in my books really speaks about overall character of an individual and I hate to say it but people don't change. Neither action I personally draft with one of our top picks.

[loudnproudcolt]

4 hours ago, krunk said:

 

 

So what was bad about his combine other than his 40?  It was still better than Bosa, and he's still faster than Terrell Suggs.  Are we to say Terrell Suggs is no pass rusher because of his 40?  We'd be lying wouldn't we?  Suggs runs a 4.84 and he didn't even do that until his pro day. His combine was worse.

 

 

Ozzie Newsome seems to have had no problems meeting with Spence unlike the Colts.  He knows all that combine stuff is mostly B.S.

 

 

"Suggs scared off some teams with his 40-yard dash in the 4.8-second range. It’s not a terrible time, but it was slower than some expected and caused some concern over one of the top players in the draft. Suggs had an average vertical jump (33 inches) and just 19 bench press reps of 225 pounds – below the average. Suggs slid a little bit in the draft and was scooped up by the Ravens at pick No. 10. He’s an example of how combine results should be taken with a grain of salt."

 

 

Spence put up better numbers than Suggs

 

What was bad about Spence's numbers were his vertical and broad jump. Both were very poor, and both are designed to show explosiveness, especially off the line. I could care less about his 40. He may have better numbers at pro day, but his behavior in the past, plus the lace of explosiveness at the combine concern me.

[BOTT]

4 hours ago, krunk said:

 

 

So what was bad about his combine other than his 40?  It was still better than Bosa, and he's still faster than Terrell Suggs.  Are we to say Terrell Suggs is no pass rusher because of his 40?  We'd be lying wouldn't we?  Suggs runs a 4.84 and he didn't even do that until his pro day. His combine was worse.

 

 

Ozzie Newsome seems to have had no problems meeting with Spence unlike the Colts.  He knows all that combine stuff is mostly B.S.

 

 

"Suggs scared off some teams with his 40-yard dash in the 4.8-second range. It’s not a terrible time, but it was slower than some expected and caused some concern over one of the top players in the draft. Suggs had an average vertical jump (33 inches) and just 19 bench press reps of 225 pounds – below the average. Suggs slid a little bit in the draft and was scooped up by the Ravens at pick No. 10. He’s an example of how combine results should be taken with a grain of salt."

 

 

Spence put up better numbers than Suggs

 

Suggs also had 24 sacks, 31 TFL, and 6 forced fumbles his final yr at ASU.  Hard to ignore that kind of production regardless of ones 40 time.

[krunk]

10 minutes ago, loudnproudcolt said:

What was bad about Spence's numbers were his vertical and broad jump. Both were very poor, and both are designed to show explosiveness, especially off the line. I could care less about his 40. He may have better numbers at pro day, but his behavior in the past, plus the lace of explosiveness at the combine concern me.

Tom Brady was horrible at everything at the combine along with other examples. I could care less. Bottom line to me is do I see the kid on film consistently beating NFL caliber players? If the answer is yes I ignore that combine stuff for the most part.

[krunk]

Then there's guys like Vic Beasley and the Floyds of the world who test well but you don't find quite as much production on film to back up

17 minutes ago, BOTT said:

Suggs also had 24 sacks, 31 TFL, and 6 forced fumbles his final yr at ASU.  Hard to ignore that kind of production regardless of ones 40 time.

Exactly! You can't put a 4.8 running Spence next to a 4.8 running Bjoern Werner and tell me I'm getting the same athlete. Even if the scores are eqal at all that other combine stuff I know Spence is the better athlete. The tape tells me that. There's other variables you focus on if the traditional metrics are not there.

[krunk]

I could see Spence dropping though but it will be mostly due to the drug stuff.

[krunk]

I remember a lot of people wanted Paul Kruger and what does he run in the 40? A 4.8 and he put up double digit sacks in the NFL multiple times. Other ways to get the job done. I know Ozzie Newsome wants to get a shot a Spence somewhere. 2 of his best pass rushers have been 4.8 forty guys. Suggs and Krueger.

[NewColtsFan]

2 hours ago, Gavin said:

I think it depends on the off field issues and how long its been since they have occurred. Hugh Thornton was drafted in 2013 as a 3rd round pick who was arrested in 2009 for underage comsumption and just a few months after that was arrested for attempting to us a fake ID. I don't think what Grigson said was accurate, Often times talent dictates you take a risk on a talent, Grigson did with Hugh. Hugh has has been inconsistent to say the least and injured but the physical talent is clearly there

 

Good points,  but I think Grigson's comments about no more knuckleheads until the 5th round at the earliest, came AFTER 2013.      I don't think it extends that far back.       I could be wrong on that,  but that's my somewhat hazy recollection....

 

 

[krunk]

Anyway im done with that because you know where i stand. Gimme Shaq!

[JRnINDY]

Spence made a few mistakes while young and has thus far he learned from them. And been clean from a party drug since then. I believe he is and will be a special edge rusher which is a rare animal to have.

Sure we can scratch him or anyone else off the Colts list because he made a mistake. We can continue to look for choir boys with zero road bumps in their past, who are happy go lucky almost to the point of being soft....Oh wait thats how we are know as "soft."

Give me the best pure pass rusher as represented in game film and that would be Spence.