PFF article on Luck & Wilson (Merge)

[Dustin]

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/10/08/analysis-notebook-week-5-4/

[NewColtsFan]

Interesting read,  thanks.

 

I'm pleased that they note Luck's improvement,  but at the same time,  they conclude that if given a choice of either,  they don't know which QB they would take.

 

Now.....   I want to be clear on this.    I love me some Russell Wilson.    I think he's hugely talented and will likely go down as a brilliant draft pick the way Brady going in the 6th round has been viewed.

 

But,  a little back of the envelope number crunching shows the following....

 

Andrew Luck attempts 43.2 passes per game.

 

Russell Wilson attempts 27.8 passes per game.

 

The two QB's simply aren't asked to do the same thing.     Luck IS the Colt's offense.   He's got an improved defense behind him, but it's far from Seattle's.     Wilson has a great running game behind him and the best defense.    He's a key part of the offense, but it's not built around him as Luck is with the Colts. 

 

In a recent ESPN survey,  (not all GM's were responded)  all but one picked Luck over Wilson.    And they noted what Luck is asked to do in his offense, vs. what Wilson is asked to do in Seattle's offense.

 

It's not the same, and it's not close.     Doesn't mean Wilson can't be great -- he clearly is.

 

But doing more with less should be enough to tell the folks at PFF who is better....

[amfootball]

Oh goody. Another Wilson vs Luck debate ....

[Nobody]

Wilson's weakness category is just praising him the whole time?

[BOTT]

Click to enlarge

[Nick93]

I found this article on PFF and thought it was an interesting read.  https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/10/08/analysis-notebook-week-5-4/

 

 

[BleedBlu8792]

/grabsthepopcorn

[SteelCityColt]

Already posted in General. http://forums.colts.com/topic/31779-pff-article-on-luck-wilson/

 

Moving and Merging.

[ruksak]

Oh goody. Another Wilson vs Luck debate ....

Whatever happened to that Luck/Griffin debate? 

[SteelCityColt]

Whatever happened to that Luck/Griffin debate? 

 

It's on IR...

[amfootball]

Whatever happened to that Luck/Griffin debate? 

No kidding. Amazing, isn't it? That was supposed to be the rivalry and at this point Cousins may have taken RGs job.

[stat2883]

doing more with less should be enough to tell the folks at PFF who is better....

I don't buy this as an argument - just because Wilson isn't asked to do something doesn't mean he isn't capable. Lack of evidence for is not the same as evidence against.

That being said, I would take Luck too.

[OffensivelyPC]

I don't buy this as an argument - just because Wilson isn't asked to do something doesn't mean he isn't capable. Lack of evidence for is not the same as evidence against.

That being said, I would take Luck too.

Sure it is. Its no different than looking at two resumes and seeing who is more qualified. If one guy is more qualified than the other, thats indirect evidence against him because you prefer the guy with more experience. Same with Luck/Wilson, but with football related criteria instead of job experience.

[rsrobinson]

 

Andrew Luck attempts 43.2 passes per game.

 

Russell Wilson attempts 27.8 passes per game.

 

Volume is not evidence of superiority. If that was the case then Ryan Tannehill, Kirk Cousins, Austin Davis, Derek Carr, Brian Hoyer. EJ Manuel, Mike Glennon, Geno Smith, Drew Stanton, and Jake Locker would all be on the list of quarterbacks who are better than Russell Wilson because they are asked to "do more" by throwing more passes per game. Hell, most of them would be ahead of Aaron Rodgers as well based on average passes per game thrown. Rodgers is averaging only 29.4 passes per game this year.

[sweetsurrender]

But doing more with less should be enough to tell the folks at PFF who is better....

How exactly is Luck doing more than Wilson? Wilson is the one with the ring. Luck for sure was asked to do a ton his rookie year under Arians but not so much anymore under Pep with more of a focus on the run game and less focus on the deep ball. Isn't this what we complain about? Pep's conservatism? And I am not sure this argument holds any water this season as Wilson has been asked to do more given the Seattle D has not been nearly as dominant this season as it was last season and he has led comebacks vs the Broncos and the Redskins.

 

I love Luck and would not trade him for the world but I don't see any gap between him and Wilson other than Wilson plays the position more efficiently. 

[jvan1973]

How exactly is Luck doing more than Wilson? Wilson is the one with the ring. Luck for sure was asked to do a ton his rookie year under Arians but not so much anymore under Pep with more of a focus on the run game and less focus on the deep ball. Isn't this what we complain about? Pep's conservatism? And I am not sure this argument holds any water this season as Wilson has been asked to do more given the Seattle D has not been nearly as dominant this season as it was last season and he has led comebacks vs the Broncos and the Redskins.

I love Luck and would not trade him for the world but I don't see any gap between him and Wilson other than Wilson plays the position more efficiently.

How can you lead a comeback in a game when you were never behind?

[NewColtsFan]

Volume is not evidence of superiority. If that was the case then Ryan Tannehill, Kirk Cousins, Austin Davis, Derek Carr, Brian Hoyer. EJ Manuel, Mike Glennon, Geno Smith, Drew Stanton, and Jake Locker would all be on the list of quarterbacks who are better than Russell Wilson because they are asked to "do more" by throwing more passes per game. Hell, most of them would be ahead of Aaron Rodgers as well based on average passes per game thrown. Rodgers is averaging only 29.4 passes per game this year.

 

Fair enough....   volume alone.    I assumed the reader would fill in the blank.

 

Volume with success.    Luck has had success.    Wilson has had too.    But, simply put,  Seattle doesn't ask him to do much.

 

In addition,  the number of passes Wilson is asked to throw is among the fewest of all QB's and it's been that way since he came into the league.

[NewColtsFan]

I don't buy this as an argument - just because Wilson isn't asked to do something doesn't mean he isn't capable. Lack of evidence for is not the same as evidence against.

That being said, I would take Luck too.

 

The position of QB is the single most important position in football.    It's the hardest to play and master.    Wilson has been asked to do less in each of his three years.

 

You are right,   just because he hasn't been asked to,  doesn't mean he can't.    That said,  Wilson has been asked to do less for each of his three years in the league.    Typically, if a QB can do more,  teams ask their QB to do more because your offense can dramatically improve.

 

Why wouldn't you ask him to do more if he can?  

 

Anyway.....   that's the view of NFL types....

[NewColtsFan]

How exactly is Luck doing more than Wilson? Wilson is the one with the ring. Luck for sure was asked to do a ton his rookie year under Arians but not so much anymore under Pep with more of a focus on the run game and less focus on the deep ball. Isn't this what we complain about? Pep's conservatism? And I am not sure this argument holds any water this season as Wilson has been asked to do more given the Seattle D has not been nearly as dominant this season as it was last season and he has led comebacks vs the Broncos and the Redskins.

 

I love Luck and would not trade him for the world but I don't see any gap between him and Wilson other than Wilson plays the position more efficiently. 

 

Well....  the answer to your question was in my original post.    You know,  the one you just edited to death.

 

Luck doesn't have as good a team.   He doesn't have as good a running game.    He doesn't have as good a defense.   And he hasn't had all that since he came into the league.   While Wilson's team has been among the best, not just in record, but in roster as well.    They won the Super Bowl last year.

 

Luck is asked to throw dramatically more passes per game.      He's asked to win games for Indy.   Wilson is asked not to lose them.

 

Wilson plays the position more efficiently because he's not asked to do more.   When your job consists of throwing far fewer passes, and turning and handing the ball off to talented running backs,   your job gets much, much easier.

[Buck Showalter]

This a.m. Cowherd spoke a few minutes about Wilson & Seattle's Offense. His premise was that the Seahawks Offense is specifically built to Wilson's strength's...

It made me wonder if the Colts offense was "truly" built around Andrew's strengths...

I also think maybe the personnel was already in place for Wilson to run an offense built around his strength's while the Colt's attempt to build a "power" running game with a less than stellar cast of players (although that is improving)...

[Derakynn]

In the past 2 seasons , the Seahwaks have needed to score more than 30 points to win only twice. They lost both games. Chargers this year (30-21) and Colts last year (34-28).

[Surge89]

Well....  the answer to your question was in my original post.    You know,  the one you just edited to death.

 

Luck doesn't have as good a team.   He doesn't have as good a running game.    He doesn't have as good a defense.   And he hasn't had all that since he came into the league.   While Wilson's team has been among the best, not just in record, but in roster as well.    They won the Super Bowl last year.

 

Luck is asked to throw dramatically more passes per game.      He's asked to win games for Indy.   Wilson is asked not to lose them.

 

Wilson plays the position more efficiently because he's not asked to do more.   When your job consists of throwing far fewer passes, and turning and handing the ball off to talented running backs,   your job gets much, much easier.

 

 

This is just simply not true...  Colts fans need to come out of the Manning era already.  Luck has a GREAT team around him.  He has amazing weapons and talented runningbacks, more importantly a very stout offensive line, with an above average D-line and exceptional DB group (aside from a safety).  The LB while a weakness can't even be considered to be in the bottom 10 of the league so they are more than serviceable.

 

STOP LIVING IN THE PAST.  Luck has a team around him, and he should, he isn't getting paid like a top tier QB yet...

 

 

*edit* also lets not try to act like the Seahawks have this amazing team with no flaws.  They are running shy at corner thinking that Earl Thomas could cover over everyone having inadequate CB play, their pass rusher rotations were hit this offseason, and they have had 0 talent at the WR position.  They have an above average oline that has been decimated with injuries (all last season), and a RB just as talented as ours.  Wilson has just as much to work with as Luck.  Just different approaches by their respective teams.

[rsrobinson]

In addition, the number of passes Wilson is asked to throw is among the fewest of all QB's and it's been that way since he came into the league.

Yeah, so what? It has to do with Pete Carroll's philosophy. He believes in a balanced attack. His teams at USC also ran more than they passed year after year. The idea that if teams don't pass a lot they are trying to hide the flaws of inadequate quarterbacks is ridiculous. Last season the Seahawks, 49ers, and Panthers all ran more than they passed and finished with a combined 37-11 record. This season the five teams who pass the ball the least have a combined 15-8 record and that includes the Packers with Aaron Rodgers. Passing the ball 40 - 50 times a game is not necessary for success in the NFL.

If the Colts got a better defense and running game and Luck began throwing 25-30 times a game instead of 40-50 times for fewer yards would that be evidence that he has regressed as a quarterback? Based on what I'm reading in this forum that would be the case since volume apparently plays a large role in judging quarterback play.

The bottom line is that whenever Wilson drops back to pass he has been consistently more successful at it than Luck throughout his career and he's done it against better defenses. Wilson has proven to be a smart, accurate, playmaking quarterback who rarely makes mistakes and there's no reason to believe that wouldn't be the case if he passed the ball ten more times a game..

[dgambill]

Oh goody. Another Wilson vs Luck debate ....

Its going to be the next Manning/Brady debate. One has the SB rings and was drafted late and has the superior team debate going and the other has the stats and first pick in the draft and yet to win a championship. Hopefully Luck wins this year and then it can be clear but I do see this as a future debate. The only difference is they basically will rarely play each other so its hard for the media to hype it.

 

At this point BOTH Qbs are playing at such a high level that really either qb is a viable choice to start your franchise. Both have been INCREDIBLE leaders and make clutch plays. No reason for anyone to be upset. The fact that they are being compared in such a manner speaks highly of how great both have been.

[NewColtsFan]

Yeah, so what? It has to do with Pete Carroll's philosophy. He believes in a balanced attack. His teams at USC also ran more than they passed year after year. The idea that if teams don't pass a lot they are trying to hide the flaws of inadequate quarterbacks is ridiculous. Last season the Seahawks, 49ers, and Panthers all ran more than they passed and finished with a combined 37-11 record. This season the five teams who pass the ball the least have a combined 15-8 record and that includes the Packers with Aaron Rodgers. Passing the ball 40 - 50 times a game is not necessary for success in the NFL.

If the Colts got a better defense and running game and Luck began throwing 25-30 times a game instead of 40-50 times for fewer yards would that be evidence that he has regressed as a quarterback? Based on what I'm reading in this forum that would be the case since volume apparently plays a large role in judging quarterback play.

The bottom line is that whenever Wilson drops back to pass he has been consistently more successful at it than Luck throughout his career and he's done it against better defenses. Wilson has proven to be a smart, accurate, playmaking quarterback who rarely makes mistakes and there's no reason to believe that wouldn't be the case if he passed the ball ten more times a game..

 

Don't take it up with me.

 

Take it up with NFL executives who hugely favor Luck over Wilson based on what each is asked to do.

[NewColtsFan]

This is just simply not true...  Colts fans need to come out of the Manning era already.  Luck has a GREAT team around him.  He has amazing weapons and talented runningbacks, more importantly a very stout offensive line, with an above average D-line and exceptional DB group (aside from a safety).  The LB while a weakness can't even be considered to be in the bottom 10 of the league so they are more than serviceable.

 

STOP LIVING IN THE PAST.  Luck has a team around him, and he should, he isn't getting paid like a top tier QB yet...

 

 

*edit* also lets not try to act like the Seahawks have this amazing team with no flaws.  They are running shy at corner thinking that Earl Thomas could cover over everyone having inadequate CB play, their pass rusher rotations were hit this offseason, and they have had 0 talent at the WR position.  They have an above average oline that has been decimated with injuries (all last season), and a RB just as talented as ours.  Wilson has just as much to work with as Luck.  Just different approaches by their respective teams.

 

I don't know how much you read here,  but I'm not an old Colts fan. 

 

I just joined in 2012 with Andrew Luck.

 

I'm not living in the past.      But thanks anyway.

[SteelCityColt]

This is just simply not true...  Colts fans need to come out of the Manning era already.  Luck has a GREAT team around him.  He has amazing weapons and talented runningbacks, more importantly a very stout offensive line, with an above average D-line and exceptional DB group (aside from a safety).  The LB while a weakness can't even be considered to be in the bottom 10 of the league so they are more than serviceable.

 

STOP LIVING IN THE PAST.  Luck has a team around him, and he should, he isn't getting paid like a top tier QB yet...

 

 

*edit* also lets not try to act like the Seahawks have this amazing team with no flaws.  They are running shy at corner thinking that Earl Thomas could cover over everyone having inadequate CB play, their pass rusher rotations were hit this offseason, and they have had 0 talent at the WR position.  They have an above average oline that has been decimated with injuries (all last season), and a RB just as talented as ours.  Wilson has just as much to work with as Luck.  Just different approaches by their respective teams.

 

Talented Running Backs... you must have missed the TRich conversations in these parts.

 

O-Line...Snap, it's hardly been a strength of ours since 2012.

 

You can't say a team has 0 talent at the WR position when they have Percy Harvin... 

[Surge89]

Talented Running Backs... you must have missed the TRich conversations in these parts.

 

O-Line...Snap, it's hardly been a strength of ours since 2012.

 

You can't say a team has 0 talent at the WR position when they have Percy Harvin... 

 

Ok so Bradshaw isn't a back of Lynch's caliber?  And Richardson isn't a starting caliber back that is playing a backup role?  Who is Seattle's 2nd RB again?

 

We have a top 10 rated RT and a Top rated LT with 3 relatively new pieces that are as a whole ranked pretty high this year...  So they aren't a strength at all...  

 

Where has Harvin been or done the past 3 years?  He can run... What else?  against what do they have at the receiving position?  I'm a huge Colts fan but the dismissal of Seattle and putting that team on a pedestal is just frustrating.  They got hot and stayed hot.  That is all.  They have talent everywhere just like a team should be when they have a young promising QB, just like us. 

There is no need to belittle the rest of the team to say how good Luck is.  There just isn't a need.

[SteelCityColt]

Ok so Bradshaw isn't a back of Lynch's caliber?  And Richardson isn't a starting caliber back that is playing a backup role?  Who is Seattle's 2nd RB again?

 

We have a top 10 rated RT and a Top rated LT with 3 relatively new pieces that are as a whole ranked pretty high this year...  So they aren't a strength at all...  

 

Where has Harvin been or done the past 3 years?  He can run... What else?  against what do they have at the receiving position?  I'm a huge Colts fan but the dismissal of Seattle and putting that team on a pedestal is just frustrating.  They got hot and stayed hot.  That is all.  They have talent everywhere just like a team should be when they have a young promising QB, just like us. 

There is no need to belittle the rest of the team to say how good Luck is.  There just isn't a need.

 

I'm not entirely sure at what point I "belittled" the rest of the team. I merely highlighted the areas of your post that I don't agree with. 

So let's look at them again. Are you honestly saying the O-line hasn't been a struggle since 2012? It has improved for sure, but it's till nowhere a top tier unit... yet. When you say Top 10 rated RT, on what metric? I'm not saying I necessarily don't agree I just want to be clear if that's just your opinion.

 

Moving onto the backs.. no AB is a great running back but he's not in Lynch's class, even if purely and simply he can't stay healthy. Believe me I love me some Bradshaw, but has to be used carefully which can limit his effectiveness. As for TRich being starting caliber... the often quoted 2.9 YPC is not starting caliber in the NFL. He's been a lot better this year but he's not exactly lighting it up. As for Seattle's 2nd RB, it's Robert Turbin, not a bad back up, 3.9 YPC is pretty solid. You neglected to mention their 3rd RB, Christine Michael who's a pretty talented rookie. 

 

There's no need to try and embellish and spin things to suit your argument, there is just no need. I'm certainly not a blind homer, nor am I one of the new sky is falling brigade. If you can't realistically recognise that in the 2012 and 2013 seasons there were huge holes that were covered in part from Luck's play then I don't know what games you were watching. This season things look to be a little different, it's good and it's exciting but there is still a long way to go. You completely glossed over the comparison of the two team's defenses since 2012 which I can only imagine being pretty painful for a Colts fan. We started Tom Zbikowski for a season! 

 

The difference between Seattle and us? They've seen the elephant and got over the hump, we've yet to. 

[sweetsurrender]

Last night is a great example of how much talent the Colts have an O and a D that is comely together nicely. At this point, I would put the Colts and Seattle as even in terms of strength of team with the Colts having the better O and Seattle with the better D. We also have to factor in the divisions which is not even close as Seattle plays in the toughest and the Colts play in one of the worst.

[amfootball]

Last night is a great example of how much talent the Colts have an O and a D that is comely together nicely. At this point, I would put the Colts and Seattle as even in terms of strength of team with the Colts having the better O and Seattle with the better D. We also have to factor in the divisions which is not even close as Seattle plays in the toughest and the Colts play in one of the worst.

Colts O is scary good as they did that last night vs one of the best Ds in the league.

[crazycolt1]

Volume is not evidence of superiority. If that was the case then Ryan Tannehill, Kirk Cousins, Austin Davis, Derek Carr, Brian Hoyer. EJ Manuel, Mike Glennon, Geno Smith, Drew Stanton, and Jake Locker would all be on the list of quarterbacks who are better than Russell Wilson because they are asked to "do more" by throwing more passes per game. Hell, most of them would be ahead of Aaron Rodgers as well based on average passes per game thrown. Rodgers is averaging only 29.4 passes per game this year.

You overlooked the winning factor. All the QBs you mentioned except for Rogers are second tier QBs. The number was brought up in comparison to winning and what Luck and Wilson do and don't do.

[crazycolt1]

This is just simply not true...  Colts fans need to come out of the Manning era already.  Luck has a GREAT team around him.  He has amazing weapons and talented runningbacks, more importantly a very stout offensive line, with an above average D-line and exceptional DB group (aside from a safety).  The LB while a weakness can't even be considered to be in the bottom 10 of the league so they are more than serviceable.

 

STOP LIVING IN THE PAST.  Luck has a team around him, and he should, he isn't getting paid like a top tier QB yet...

 

 

*edit* also lets not try to act like the Seahawks have this amazing team with no flaws.  They are running shy at corner thinking that Earl Thomas could cover over everyone having inadequate CB play, their pass rusher rotations were hit this offseason, and they have had 0 talent at the WR position.  They have an above average oline that has been decimated with injuries (all last season), and a RB just as talented as ours.  Wilson has just as much to work with as Luck.  Just different approaches by their respective teams.

No one here has brought up the past but you.

[austriancolt]

It's a stupid debate unless you let play both behind the same Oline with the same RB, Receiver etc. Luck played his first two years behind one of the worst Offensive Line in the NFL. This year is the first year the Colts finally have a somewhat decent Offensive Line and still it's plenty of room for improvement. Especially regarding the Run Blocking. Plus Wilson had a Top 3 Defense giving him more opportunities etc. As mentioned before you can't compare them unless you let them play with the same material around them. And with the supporting cast Luck had the last years he did a phenomenal job even if Wilson have a ring.

[thedude]

Volume is not evidence of superiority. If that was the case then Ryan Tannehill, Kirk Cousins, Austin Davis, Derek Carr, Brian Hoyer. EJ Manuel, Mike Glennon, Geno Smith, Drew Stanton, and Jake Locker would all be on the list of quarterbacks who are better than Russell Wilson because they are asked to "do more" by throwing more passes per game. Hell, most of them would be ahead of Aaron Rodgers as well based on average passes per game thrown. Rodgers is averaging only 29.4 passes per game this year.

You must be kidding? No one could make that comment and actually believe it.

[B~Town]

In the past 2 seasons , the Seahwaks have needed to score more than 30 points to win only twice. They lost both games. Chargers this year (30-21) and Colts last year (34-28).

That says a lot really any way you slice it

[thedude]

Oh goody. Another Wilson vs Luck debate ....

The colts are happy, they went from the cellar to a playoff spot. The Seahawks are happy with their QB and the super bowl win.

I'm happy everyone, or almost everyone is happy.

[dw49]

Ok so Bradshaw isn't a back of Lynch's caliber?  And Richardson isn't a starting caliber back that is playing a backup role?  Who is Seattle's 2nd RB again?

 

We have a top 10 rated RT and a Top rated LT with 3 relatively new pieces that are as a whole ranked pretty high this year...  So they aren't a strength at all...  

 

Where has Harvin been or done the past 3 years?  He can run... What else?  against what do they have at the receiving position?  I'm a huge Colts fan but the dismissal of Seattle and putting that team on a pedestal is just frustrating.  They got hot and stayed hot.  That is all.  They have talent everywhere just like a team should be when they have a young promising QB, just like us. 

There is no need to belittle the rest of the team to say how good Luck is.  There just isn't a need.

 

 

First of all the 10th rated OT is not all that great since there are only 32. But anyway...just who has him rated in the top 10 this year ? He always been below average in the run game and this year he's looked like a matador starting right from the pre season. If you are calling him a strength in 2014 , you are not watching or are delusional. 

 

Percy Harvin... very explosive player that runs good routes and has good hands. Was a pretty fair weapon for a Minn team with horrible QB's. I kinda think if he had a horse shoe on the side of his helmet , he would have stats that look more like TY hilton that what your looking at this year in Seattle. Calling him a "zero" in the passing game is as bad or worse than your Cherlius evaluation. Was looking at Golden Tate's contract and saw not that big ... strange that a team with "zero" at WR would not resign him. BTW... he appears to be thriving with Stafford.

 

Now for the thread... who cares who thinks Russel Wilson is as good as Luck. IMO , it's stupid as you are comparing a tiny escape artist to a prototype franchise QB. Wilson is good no doubt but God forbid if he losses a bit of agility and can no longer run around in circles to see the field. He'll always be somewhat limited by being 5'11 and trying to see the field surrounded by 6'5" monsters. But is he good ? Sure is and gets the job done. Are there 3 GM's out of 32 that would take Wilson over Luck given the choice ? Doubt it.

[amfootball]

 

Now for the thread... who cares who thinks Russel Wilson is as good as Luck. IMO , it's stupid as you are comparing a tiny escape artist to a prototype franchise QB. Wilson is good no doubt but God forbid if he losses a bit of agility and can no longer run around in circles to see the field. He'll always be somewhat limited by being 5'11 and trying to see the field surrounded by 6'5" monsters. But is he good ? Sure is and gets the job done. Are there 3 GM's out of 32 that would take Wilson over Luck given the choice ? Doubt it.

Good points but I think you would agree "looking" the part and "playing" the part are two different things. Wilson may be challenged by his physical stature but I also think that is what makes him the more consistent and heady player. He knows his abilities and plays within him. And that is kind of a cheap shot at him being a running QB. He is a pocket passer first and does play behind a pretty poor Oline so when he is scrambling it is not to see but to avoid pressure and getting sacked. I think with Luck he feels like he can just throw the ball through people and takes some ridiculous chances. He also holds the ball because he can given how big he is, he can absorb the hits like Big Ben. If he keeps taking them though he will wear down like Ben has. So while I agree with you that every GM would pick Luck as he looks the part, not sure that means anything once the players step on the field.

[braveheartcolt]

Oh goody. Another Wilson vs Luck debate ....

I know, so boring without Tom.