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Colts have the 15th pick in the draft. (MERGE)


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2 minutes ago, Smonroe said:


Agreed.  And if he doesn’t do it this year, with all the cap space and some prime FAs available, he’ll never do it.  
 

I really think we need an edge rusher that teams have to worry about.  We have several good guys, not one great one.  When we hear names like Young, Allen, Burns, etc. being paid big bucks by other teams, I’ll be depressed.  

Where do you think we are going to find this elite edge rusher? I saw a list today and very very few exceptions that were FA signings  were close to elite.  You can get good in FA like we did but finding elite will be almost impossible. A edge in the draft is probably not going to produce right away. Then add one at 15 is probably going to end up with a good career but not elite.  I like what we have once we fix the secondary.

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4 minutes ago, Smonroe said:


Agreed.  And if he doesn’t do it this year, with all the cap space and some prime FAs available, he’ll never do it.  
 

I really think we need an edge rusher that teams have to worry about.  We have several good guys, not one great one.  When we hear names like Young, Allen, Burns, etc. being paid big bucks by other teams, I’ll be depressed.  

Yeah, honestly the EDGE rushers in the draft this year aren't as good as people think. The corners look pretty decent, the WRs look great, and I think we grab a WR or CB in the 1st round. I would personally grab a big name EDGE in FA on day 1 like Brian Burns and just have a great D-Line. We probably won't sign both Paye and Dayo back, and he would be great insurance in case we let one or both of them go next year. 

 

I've said this for a while now, but I just want to get one elite defensive player in FA. We have our normal allotment of draft picks, but 7 picks is tough to get a lot of what you need. I want quality this year with some depth and draft picks to build around. Not just a bunch of depth where we hope the draft pays off. 

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Finding big time edge guys in free-agency is rare. More are busts when spending big money at that position than anything else. Mostly because big time edge guys don’t hit the market.  The guys that are there are available for a reason.  Trey Hendrickson is one of the few that have worked out.  Just look at page 1 of the Ballard Grievance thread. It starts out with someone wanting Chandler Jones. A lot of people wanted him despite coming off a season where almost all of his sacks came in one game.  Fortunately, the Raiders signed him and not Ballard. 
 

Money at that position is better spent on the Autry/Ebukam guys who are undervalued and on the rise if a team goes edge in free-agency.  I think the Colts have enough of those guys at the moment. 
 

The best way to find a top tier edge rusher is through the draft and it’s very difficult. Like it was mentioned, this isn’t a great draft for Edge rushers. It’s deep at QB, WR, and CB. After Ollie’s firing I tend to believe the Colts feel like they have enough up front.  If they see someone in the draft they love I’m not opposed to it. If they go that way in Rd. 1, I would think about trading Paye. 

 


 

 

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13 hours ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Where do you think we are going to find this elite edge rusher? I saw a list today and very very few exceptions that were FA signings  were close to elite.  You can get good in FA like we did but finding elite will be almost impossible. A edge in the draft is probably not going to produce right away. Then add one at 15 is probably going to end up with a good career but not elite.  I like what we have once we fix the secondary.


A great pass rush goes a long way to fixing the secondary.  The rookie CBs look pretty good, we have to re-sign Kenny, and we should get Flowers back.  

You’ll have to tell me what you consider elite.  

 

I named three FAs, Young, Allen and Burns.  You can throw in Chris Jones too.   All will be high priced.  IMHO Young will probably be the one who doesn’t re-sign with the team he’s on now.  He’s coming into his own and has great potential to get better.  
 

Rotate him the the group we have now, that’s a fearsome bunch.  

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29 minutes ago, Smonroe said:


A great pass rush goes a long way to fixing the secondary.  The rookie CBs look pretty good, we have to re-sign Kenny, and we should get Flowers back.  

You’ll have to tell me what you consider elite.  

 

I named three FAs, Young, Allen and Burns.  You can throw in Chris Jones too.   All will be high priced.  IMHO Young will probably be the one who doesn’t re-sign with the team he’s on now.  He’s coming into his own and has great potential to get better.  
 

Rotate him the the group we have now, that’s a fearsome bunch.  

I never said it wouldn’t go along way. Every team would love an elite one. They are as hard to find as a QB. Burns is not elite. The guy has had under ten sacks every year except one. Josh Allen isn’t going anywhere. Jags said yesterday he was not leaving. Young might be the exception yo hit FA. We will see. Chris jones is not a edge.

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14 hours ago, Smonroe said:


Thats true, due to injuries.  But I’d still take him over any of our edge rushers.  
 

Wouldnt you?  

 

I've been watching him with the Niners, and it's been kind of rough at times. I don't see a lot of effort, no real flashes of the standout prospect he was coming out of college, and almost no production. I think he was a liability against the Packers.

 

No question that he'd be our most talented and gifted Edge, probably the most talented defensive player we've had in a long time, at any position. But he certainly hasn't lived up to his draft standing so far, and he hasn't had the impact with the Niners that everyone expected when they traded for him.

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32 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

I never said it wouldn’t go along way. Every team would love an elite one. They are as hard to find as a QB. Burns is not elite. The guy has had under ten sacks every year except one. Josh Allen isn’t going anywhere. Jags said yesterday he was not leaving. Young might be the exception yo hit FA. We will see. Chris jones is not a edge.

I’m hoping the Jags are forced to tag Allen.  That could open the door for Ridley to hit FA.  He would be a big loss for the Jags.  If he wound up a Colt alongside Pittman and Downs we would be in a fantastic situation.  

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1 hour ago, Smonroe said:


A great pass rush goes a long way to fixing the secondary.  The rookie CBs look pretty good, we have to re-sign Kenny, and we should get Flowers back.  

You’ll have to tell me what you consider elite.  

 

I named three FAs, Young, Allen and Burns.  You can throw in Chris Jones too.   All will be high priced.  IMHO Young will probably be the one who doesn’t re-sign with the team he’s on now.  He’s coming into his own and has great potential to get better.  
 

Rotate him the the group we have now, that’s a fearsome bunch.  

I wouldn't be mad if took a swing on Young and missed. You gotta at least swing. You might just hit.

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15 hours ago, Yoshinator said:

Yeah, honestly the EDGE rushers in the draft this year aren't as good as people think. The corners look pretty decent, the WRs look great, and I think we grab a WR or CB in the 1st round. I would personally grab a big name EDGE in FA on day 1 like Brian Burns and just have a great D-Line. We probably won't sign both Paye and Dayo back, and he would be great insurance in case we let one or both of them go next year. 

 

I've said this for a while now, but I just want to get one elite defensive player in FA. We have our normal allotment of draft picks, but 7 picks is tough to get a lot of what you need. I want quality this year with some depth and draft picks to build around. Not just a bunch of depth where we hope the draft pays off. 

With the class of WRs in this draft, I hope we can possibly land an Odunze at 15 or trade down for extra high picks and get a WR like Brian Thomas Jr or Xavier Worthy. I’m not as high on this corner or edge rush class at the top. 

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1 hour ago, Superman said:

 

I've been watching him with the Niners, and it's been kind of rough at times. I don't see a lot of effort, no real flashes of the standout prospect he was coming out of college, and almost no production. I think he was a liability against the Packers.

 

No question that he'd be our most talented and gifted Edge, probably the most talented defensive player we've had in a long time, at any position. But he certainly hasn't lived up to his draft standing so far, and he hasn't had the impact with the Niners that everyone expected when they traded for him.

 

 Young has yet to produce on the field better than Paye or Ebukhan.

No matter how he looks in his uniform. IMO Talent in the NFL is only based on production.

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1 hour ago, KB said:

I wouldn't be mad if took a swing on Young and missed. You gotta at least swing. You might just hit.

I’m conflicted on Young. He’s had more pressures this season (66) than any of our guys (DeFo 52, Ebukam 48) and he’d definitely be an upgrade if we got him - if he can keep it up. 
 

But is he elite? I think he’ll like be asking for more than he’s really worth. But if we could sign him to a 1-2 year deal for $12m-ish per year I’d think it be worth the shot. 

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16 minutes ago, Solid84 said:

I’m conflicted on Young. He’s had more pressures this season (66) than any of our guys (DeFo 52, Ebukam 48) and he’d definitely be an upgrade if we got him - if he can keep it up. 
 

But is he elite? I think he’ll like be asking for more than he’s really worth. But if we could sign him to a 1-2 year deal for $12m-ish per year I’d think it be worth the shot. 

At least you can see that injuries have stalled his progress, and unlike Leonard, Young has been producing pressure at a good rate (even if sack production isn't elite), so he isn't going towards being a FA Bust. He's the kind of upside, unravelled potential you look to hit in FA, which if he had already attained his full potential, he wouldn't be a FA or would be a very costly FA. That's the kind of potential you pay for in free agency, and hope to get it work rather than who has been trending towards the back end of his career. 

 

I think 49ers will try to keep him if they manage cap in QB's rookie deal, with reworking Trent Williams contract. But, if he hits FA, teams should not be afraid to get him. 

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29 minutes ago, Solid84 said:

I’m conflicted on Young. He’s had more pressures this season (66) than any of our guys (DeFo 52, Ebukam 48) and he’d definitely be an upgrade if we got him - if he can keep it up. 
 

But is he elite? I think he’ll like be asking for more than he’s really worth. But if we could sign him to a 1-2 year deal for $12m-ish per year I’d think it be worth the shot. 

I'd say two years is what we can give max due to Raimanns rookie deal having two years left. We have a very narrow window before this cap gets tight.

 

I'd say have him, Ebukam, and Paye battle it out for the starting spots.

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55 minutes ago, Solid84 said:

I’m conflicted on Young. He’s had more pressures this season (66) than any of our guys (DeFo 52, Ebukam 48) and he’d definitely be an upgrade if we got him - if he can keep it up. 
 

But is he elite? I think he’ll like be asking for more than he’s really worth. But if we could sign him to a 1-2 year deal for $12m-ish per year I’d think it be worth the shot. 

 

I'd do that deal. I think his number will be twice that amount, though.

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1 minute ago, Superman said:

 

I'd do that deal. I think his number will be twice that amount, though.

Really? Brian Huff has produced better and is expected to get $15-16m. 
 

I wouldn’t touch him for $24m. 

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Burns was asking for $30 million a year this season.  Do people want to pay $25-30 million for a guy who has had one season with 10+ sacks?  He ranked around 50th in pressure. I don’t see Ballard doing it and Carolina has refused to deal him when they had big time offers.  
 

Hunter?  Two year deal and trade Paye? Hunter at least has a proven track record in both a 4-3 and 3-4. 
 

Huff has a crazy pressure and win rate. Make Dayo the starting end, trade Paye, and have Huff as a designated pass rusher. 
 

Most likely is hiring  a new coach to help the continued development of the young dlineman and find much better depth at DT. Possibly add a piece in the draft 

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46 minutes ago, Solid84 said:

Really? Brian Huff has produced better and is expected to get $15-16m. 
 

I wouldn’t touch him for $24m. 

 

You need to do the eye test on both of them.  I think you'll see that Young was better, especially earlier in the year.  I think he has Bosa potential, but I could be too optimistic.

 

I don't worry about the money, $24M isn't going to hurt the team.  (And TBH, that may be a low ball)  May have to restructure a little after we sign our FAs, but I think there's plenty left.

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4 minutes ago, Smonroe said:

 

You need to do the eye test on both of them.  I think you'll see that Young was better, especially earlier in the year.  I think he has Bosa potential, but I could be too optimistic.

 

I don't worry about the money, $24M isn't going to hurt the team.  (And TBH, that may be a low ball)  May have to restructure a little after we sign our FAs, but I think there's plenty left.

This article says spotrac.com has him projected to earn $17.8m, but if I look it up on spotrac.com they say his market value is $13.6m, weird.

 

I definitely wouldn't touch him for $24m and I think $18m-ish is a gamble given his injury history.

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7 minutes ago, Solid84 said:

This article says spotrac.com has him projected to earn $17.8m, but if I look it up on spotrac.com they say his market value is $13.6m, weird.

 

I definitely wouldn't touch him for $24m and I think $18m-ish is a gamble given his injury history.

 

I think he'll laugh at 17, but I could be wrong.  If it's that low, he'll go fast.  

 

I read that guys like TJ and Garrett are in the mid 20s.  But they've proven themselves, so it could be different with Chase.  It always comes down to the guaranteed money anyway.  As I said, I wouldn't worry about overpaying a guy like him, he'll be underpaid by the end of his contract if he shows out.

 

 

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1 minute ago, Smonroe said:

 

I think he'll laugh at 17, but I could be wrong.  If it's that low, he'll go fast.  

 

I read that guys like TJ and Garrett are in the mid 20s.  But they've proven themselves, so it could be different with Chase.  It always comes down to the guaranteed money anyway.  As I said, I wouldn't worry about overpaying a guy like him, he'll be underpaid by the end of his contract if he shows out.

 

 

Chase is not getting top DE money unless some * pulls a "Jaguars" and resets the market for DEs. He's been good this season, but he's at least one tier below the top dogs depending on how you rank in my opinion.

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1 hour ago, Solid84 said:

Chase is not getting top DE money unless some * pulls a "Jaguars" and resets the market for DEs. He's been good this season, but he's at least one tier below the top dogs depending on how you rank in my opinion.

 

When Free Agency starts, everyone is overpaid.  That's the nature of the beast.  So yes, I think someone will give him top DE money - low to mid 20s, maybe better.

 

In one way, I admire Ballard for holding his ground and being level headed.  But I hope that this year he makes a splash (and I don't mean something like getting the highest paid punter in the league).

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5 hours ago, KB said:

Why is "trade Paye" becoming common? We all know he is a strong run defender that might produce around 8 sacks. Dosnt bring much of anything to any deal.

If they brought in a starting edge where would Paye fit?  They have Samson as the LEO.  They have Dayo.  Lewis might be back. Leo was drafted last year.  I think it comes up for discussion because the Colts have to decide on his 5th year option this spring.  His 5th year will be at $13 million I believe.  That’s a lot for a guy with less than 2 pressures per game. If they added someone and aren’t picking up his club option they might decide they want to get some value for Paye.  Or they might just let him play out his contract. 

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1 hour ago, Hawkeyecolt said:

If they brought in a starting edge where would Paye fit?  They have Samson as the LEO.  They have Dayo.  Lewis might be back. Leo was drafted last year.  I think it comes up for discussion because the Colts have to decide on his 5th year option this spring.  His 5th year will be at $13 million I believe.  That’s a lot for a guy with less than 2 pressures per game. If they added someone and aren’t picking up his club option they might decide they want to get some value for Paye.  Or they might just let him play out his contract. 

Most likely just play out the contract. If he loses his starting role teams arnt going to try and trade for him. They'll just wait for him to be released. 

This is all if we found someone to supplement him or Ebukam. I think Ebukam can be an upgrade at LDE over Paye so that would be a bump over. Would still keep Paye. He dosnt provide much pressure but he is great in the run game. Which is what you want out of your LDE at minimum. So having him as a backup if a starter would then go down would be great.

And his fifth year option is a no for me. Prime run defenders with less than 10 sacks a year don't get $13 mil a year.

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22 hours ago, TheBlueAndWhite said:

Xavier Legette or brock Bowers for me, both are very physical and Insane playmakers on offense.

Not a fan of legette he is raw compared  to the other players at his position  we need a Brian Thomas, nabors type playe.

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1 hour ago, Stephen said:

Not a fan of legette he is raw compared  to the other players at his position  we need a Brian Thomas, nabors type playe.

I don't disagree, but legette has much higher upside, better build and is an animal after the catch, plus has great hands, i don't mind brian thomas or nabors, keon coleman, etc. but whe i see legette play, he reminds me very much of DK metcalf, in build and catching ability. 

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For me the "pain" from the Houston loss is pretty much over. I said a couple days later , that it stung but the Colts were better off losing that game. Not only do we get an easier schedule ( play Pitt , Giants and Denver , rather than Baltimore , Dallas and KC)  but the draft capital gained may have been huge. If we had beat the Cleveland team that laid that giant egg in Houston , we would be drafting 27th rather than 15. 

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6 minutes ago, Superman said:

@Smonroe

 

Sharing this as an example of what I was talking about with Chase Young, the substandard effort and lack of impact.

 

 

 

I saw in real-time, and then have seen numerous posts online about it. I cannot fathom this kind of effort (lack of) in a championship game...

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5 hours ago, Superman said:

@Smonroe

 

Sharing this as an example of what I was talking about with Chase Young, the substandard effort and lack of impact.

 

 

 

5 hours ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

 

I saw in real-time, and then have seen numerous posts online about it. I cannot fathom this kind of effort (lack of) in a championship game...

He’s playing himself out of big-money contract range with that effort. 

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On 1/26/2024 at 8:27 PM, KB said:

Most likely just play out the contract. If he loses his starting role teams arnt going to try and trade for him. They'll just wait for him to be released. 

This is all if we found someone to supplement him or Ebukam. I think Ebukam can be an upgrade at LDE over Paye so that would be a bump over. Would still keep Paye. He dosnt provide much pressure but he is great in the run game. Which is what you want out of your LDE at minimum. So having him as a backup if a starter would then go down would be great.

And his fifth year option is a no for me. Prime run defenders with less than 10 sacks a year don't get $13 mil a year.


You want Ebukam, who plays at 240-245, on the left side?   He's the closest thing the Colts have to a speed rusher, so he normally plays mostly RDE.   The Colts have Paye, Lewis and Dayo who can play the left side.  

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On 1/27/2024 at 3:50 AM, Hawkeyecolt said:

If they brought in a starting edge where would Paye fit?  They have Samson as the LEO.  They have Dayo.  Lewis might be back. Leo was drafted last year.  I think it comes up for discussion because the Colts have to decide on his 5th year option this spring.  His 5th year will be at $13 million I believe.  That’s a lot for a guy with less than 2 pressures per game. If they added someone and aren’t picking up his club option they might decide they want to get some value for Paye.  Or they might just let him play out his contract. 

 

On 1/27/2024 at 5:27 AM, KB said:

Most likely just play out the contract. If he loses his starting role teams arnt going to try and trade for him. They'll just wait for him to be released. 

This is all if we found someone to supplement him or Ebukam. I think Ebukam can be an upgrade at LDE over Paye so that would be a bump over. Would still keep Paye. He dosnt provide much pressure but he is great in the run game. Which is what you want out of your LDE at minimum. So having him as a backup if a starter would then go down would be great.

And his fifth year option is a no for me. Prime run defenders with less than 10 sacks a year don't get $13 mil a year.

I really wish we give Lewis a shot at Paye's position. Lewis already has half his snaps there and he out-produces Paye by a bit.

 

PFF Numbers:

 

Paye:

  • 700 total snaps (287 run defense // 410 pass rush)
    • 616 at "REO"
  • 28 total pressures (8 sacks, 2 hits and 18 hurries)

Lewis:

  • 437 total snaps (178 run defense // 259 pass rush)
    • 141 at "REO" // 132 at "LEO"
  • 44 total pressures (5 sacks, 8 hits and 31 hurries)

 

Paye is a better run defender though, but in a passing league I think it's worth betting on Lewis. At this point I wouldn't pick up Paye's 5th year option.

Lewis has his whole injury thing, though, but a lot of that have been flukes.

 

Alternatively the Colts could look at a guy like Bralen Trice in the 2nd, but that would indicate they were giving up on Paye (and Lewis as a starter) and I don't think the Colts are there yet.

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3 hours ago, Solid84 said:

 

I really wish we give Lewis a shot at Paye's position. Lewis already has half his snaps there and he out-produces Paye by a bit.

 

PFF Numbers:

 

Paye:

  • 700 total snaps (287 run defense // 410 pass rush)
    • 616 at "REO"
  • 28 total pressures (8 sacks, 2 hits and 18 hurries)

Lewis:

  • 437 total snaps (178 run defense // 259 pass rush)
    • 141 at "REO" // 132 at "LEO"
  • 44 total pressures (5 sacks, 8 hits and 31 hurries)

 

Paye is a better run defender though, but in a passing league I think it's worth betting on Lewis. At this point I wouldn't pick up Paye's 5th year option.

Lewis has his whole injury thing, though, but a lot of that have been flukes.

 

Alternatively the Colts could look at a guy like Bralen Trice in the 2nd, but that would indicate they were giving up on Paye (and Lewis as a starter) and I don't think the Colts are there yet.

100%. I would need to see the breakdown to see if Paye was taken off the field and Lewis  went in his place in critical situations but I agree. Was less on the inside or edge when he was most effective. I did hear on the horseshoe huddle then say Paye was taken off and replaced by Lewis on a lot  of important downs. Lewis was critical in a lot of wins. Hid pressure ended up causing some late game int for the win. I know Ballard and Lewis have a very close relationship so hopefully he gets extended. From what I hear he is a great locker room guy too.

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6 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:


You want Ebukam, who plays at 240-245, on the left side?   He's the closest thing the Colts have to a speed rusher, so he normally plays mostly RDE.   The Colts have Paye, Lewis and Dayo who can play the left side.  

I was saying if we found someone to come in and compete. Then if he beats out Ebukam for the the RDE spot. At that point, yes, I would try Ebukam at LDE. His run defense grades were respectable and he will provide more of a pass rush than Paye has shown. While Lewis does provide a good amount of pressure, and Dayo gives us a decent amount of sacks, we should still be looking to upgrade the position.

In this scenario it would be interesting to see who would be the odd man out of the group. Lewis (high pressures, could be more sacks with more playing time, injury history), Dayo (sacks), or Paye (good run defense).

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Interesting article on PFF.  They suggest the Colts should trade their 1st pick for A.J.Brown.  They also suggest the Bengals should trade their 2nd rd pick and another pick this year for Buckner.  Colts save over 20m in cap space and the Bengals plug a major hole on their defensive interior. 

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34 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

Interesting article on PFF.  They suggest the Colts should trade their 1st pick for A.J.Brown.  They also suggest the Bengals should trade their 2nd rd pick and another pick this year for Buckner.  Colts save over 20m in cap space and the Bengals plug a major hole on their defensive interior. 

As a casual fan, I could see doing the Brown trade.  Young, proven vet under contract until end of 2026(?).  Definitely upgrades our WR corp and is another toy for AR.  I’m good with that.  

 

Not so much with Buckner for a 2nd and another pick.  It leaves a hole in the Dline which we have no replacement for.  So what are we gaining here?  We have cap space for the next couple of years from what I read here, so money is not *really* an issue.  

 

Is there a lineman in the draft that could take his place in the bottom of the first?  Maybe we could take both second rounders and move up to the bottom of the first for his replacement?  I don’t know, just asking.

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26 minutes ago, MB-ColtsFan said:

As a casual fan, I could see doing the Brown trade.  Young, proven vet under contract until end of 2026(?).  Definitely upgrades our WR corp and is another toy for AR.  I’m good with that.  

 

Not so much with Buckner for a 2nd and another pick.  It leaves a hole in the Dline which we have no replacement for.  So what are we gaining here?  We have cap space for the next couple of years from what I read here, so money is not *really* an issue.  

 

Is there a lineman in the draft that could take his place in the bottom of the first?  Maybe we could take both second rounders and move up to the bottom of the first for his replacement?  I don’t know, just asking.

From what I read it’s supposed to be a very good draft for DT’s so the idea of moving back into the 1st round entered my mind as well.  Picking up an additional 20m in cap space really opens the possibility for adding another premium player in FA who would be younger than Buckner who is 30 I believe.  Hard to see them doing the Buckner trade proposal but you never know until the phone call comes in.  

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32 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

From what I read it’s supposed to be a very good draft for DT’s so the idea of moving back into the 1st round entered my mind as well.  Picking up an additional 20m in cap space really opens the possibility for adding another premium player in FA who would be younger than Buckner who is 30 I believe.  Hard to see them doing the Buckner trade proposal but you never know until the phone call comes in.  

Okay, you sold me, for the most part, on the Buckner possibility, haha.  I didn't realize it was a good draft for DT's.  It's always an unknown in the draft, but this year may be the year to do this.

 

I also agree with someone who said that if Ballard doesn't pull the trigger in FA this year on day 1 he's never going to do it (trading our #1 is the same in my mind).  My mindset is that he feels he has the franchise QB in AR and this is the year to go all in to get the roster to the next level.  Next year we won't (hopefully) have a draft at 15, but more probably in the 20's.  Get that guy this year and we can get this team to a much higher level.  Of course this is just my opinion and is completely against his past norms.

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