Alec Pierce

[Solid84]

I think an interesting part of this is Pierce' QBR is identical between total targets and deep targets. He's consistent.

 

I'd still like for him to make more plays, but he no doubt needs a QB who enables him to make those plays.

[w87r]

https://www.nfl.com/videos/next-gen-stats-completion-probability-explained

 

 

Not that I think this is something you don't know,  but it goes into why guys like Pierce, Watson, Watson catch% is what it is.

 

They receive a lot of low percentage completion passes.  Run the defense off and take a shot now and then, clear the underneath.

 

 

Oh QB is scrambling throws it out of bounce, you are closest WR, Target. Lol, sorry

No need to rehash anymore.

 

 

https://www.colts.com/video/next-gen-stats-gardner-minshew-s-4-most-improbable-completions-week-13

 

Here is the next Gen video from Titans game. Both of Pierce's deep balls had about a 30% chance of completion.

[compuls1v3]

On 12/26/2023 at 6:07 PM, GoColts8818 said:

Difference is I expect Minshew to be a backup level player, also it’s not like Pierce was performing well when Richardson was in there if anything he’s been more productive when Minshew was in there so I don’t buy it’s a QB problem especially when Pittman and Downs have both produced with both Richardson and Minshew.

If memory servers me right, I feel like they were limiting Richardson at first, or at least he wasn't looking deep.  Maybe I'm wrong, but that's what I recall.

[GoColts8818]

12 minutes ago, compuls1v3 said:

If memory servers me right, I feel like they were limiting Richardson at first, or at least he wasn't looking deep.  Maybe I'm wrong, but that's what I recall.

I was at the Titans game.  They opened things up for him in that game before he got hurt and both Pittman and Downs caught passes down the field.  

[husker61]

Thanks for posting all those stats! How many of the scouts/gm’s here will admit they have been wrong about pierce having bad hands and dropping too many passes? I think close to zero.

[Superman]

On 12/28/2023 at 4:19 PM, OLD FAN MAN said:

is he getting open deep after o-line protection breaks down and the qb cant get set to throw deep? could it be an o-line problem?

 

The first element is the scheme. The passing game revolves around Pittman, by design. And last week, they mostly put Montgomery in Pittman's spot. 

 

The second element is the play of the QB, and that's pretty obvious and self-explanatory. 

 

But to answer your question, I don't think it's only about Pierce getting open after the pressure is affecting the QB. I think the play of the QB is the biggest factor. 

[joeb]

Did anyone know pierce is the fastest of our receivers. 4.41. 40yd.

[husker61]

1 hour ago, joeb said:

Did anyone know pierce is the fastest of our receivers. 4.41. 40yd.

but it doesn’t matter, most here say he can’t make a catch or get open. But I haven’t heard much from them since the actual stats were posted.

[compuls1v3]

9 minutes ago, husker61 said:

but it doesn’t matter, most here say he can’t make a catch or get open. But I haven’t heard much from them since the actual stats were posted.

He's made catches and gets open.  He's had some critical drops, and has made some tough catches as well.  He needs to be more consistent. 

[chad72]

Yeah, if Reggie Wayne is his coach, he doesn't want to one up his coach who started shining in year 3, lol  

 

So, my conclusion is Year 3 is Alec Pierce's breakout year. 😁

 

On a serious note, it is a combination of how the offensive flow is structured and QB play, but folks will remember his game 1 TD drop as a rookie vs Texans from Matt Ryan last year, and the key 3rd down catch he couldn't come up with vs Falcons last game. The main problem is there aren't enough positive plays to offset these negative moments. That is why I feel that they should actively involve him more early on in a game when they can take those deep shot risks to establish a threat with him consistently game after game, not go away for 3 games after 1 good game.

[GoColts8818]

1 hour ago, compuls1v3 said:

He's made catches and gets open.  He's had some critical drops, and has made some tough catches as well.  He needs to be more consistent. 

Thank you, exactly.  That’s my issue with Pierce.  It’s the total production, it’s not there.  There is no consistent production with him.  I don’t buy it’s the QB because Downs and Pittman have found ways to be productive consistently with the same QB.  Heck Montgomery was out producing Pierce after Pittman went down and the Colts needed Pierce to step up.  Also, Pierce has actually been more productive with Minshew than he has with other QBs he’s had in his NFL career.  
 

I agree Pierce has the tools on paper to be a good NFL WR.  He’s just not putting it together in games consistently enough.  There is still time for that to change and I’ll keep saying even though I don’t think it will I hope it does.  I am not here to cheer against him or be right about my opinion of him.  I want him to be successful because that’s good for the Colts.  

[compuls1v3]

12 minutes ago, GoColts8818 said:

Thank you, exactly.  That’s my issue with Pierce.  It’s the total production, it’s not there.  There is no consistent production with him.  I don’t buy it’s the QB because Downs and Pittman have found ways to be productive consistently with the same QB.  Heck Montgomery was out producing Pierce after Pittman went down and the Colts needed Pierce to step up.  Also, Pierce has actually been more productive with Minshew than he has with other QBs he’s had in his NFL career.  
 

I agree Pierce has the tools on paper to be a good NFL WR.  He’s just not putting it together in games consistently enough.  There is still time for that to change and I’ll keep saying even though I don’t think it will I hope it does.  I am not here to cheer against him or be right about my opinion of him.  I want him to be successful because that’s good for the Colts.  

My hope is that he's more consistent year 3, no matter the QB.  I hope he can be our deep threat and be more dependable.  Even though his drops are low, so are his targets, which amplifies the mistakes.  I'd still be interested in a 1st round talent WR next year. 

[Solid84]

2 hours ago, GoColts8818 said:

Thank you, exactly.  That’s my issue with Pierce.  It’s the total production, it’s not there.  There is no consistent production with him.  I don’t buy it’s the QB because Downs and Pittman have found ways to be productive consistently with the same QB.  Heck Montgomery was out producing Pierce after Pittman went down and the Colts needed Pierce to step up.  Also, Pierce has actually been more productive with Minshew than he has with other QBs he’s had in his NFL career.  
 

I agree Pierce has the tools on paper to be a good NFL WR.  He’s just not putting it together in games consistently enough.  There is still time for that to change and I’ll keep saying even though I don’t think it will I hope it does.  I am not here to cheer against him or be right about my opinion of him.  I want him to be successful because that’s good for the Colts.  

While I agree I do think it’s fair to mention that a little less than a third of Pierce’ targets requires a QB with an actual NFL arm. Neither Minshew nor Ryan has that. 

[Dark Superman]

Give me one full season with Anthony Richardson/Alec Pierce before I throw in the towel on the kid. It takes a lot of great wide receivers 2-3 years to finally catch on and become productive. Give Pierce the same opportunity as everyone else.

[lester]

9 hours ago, GoColts8818 said:

I don’t buy it’s the QB because Downs and Pittman have found ways to be productive consistently with the same QB.  Heck Montgomery was out producing Pierce after Pittman went down and the Colts needed Pierce to step up.  Also, Pierce has actually been more productive with Minshew than he has with other QBs he’s had in his NFL career.  

What people are saying when they say, “it’s the QB” is this: the routes that this scheme assigns to other receivers are not the same as those they assign to Alec Pierce.
 

Pittman and Downs are assigned the kind of routes that Minshew is very good at. Alec Pierce, however, is not assigned these kinds of routes. His role has consistently been to run really fast, far downfield. Minshew has to wind up to uncork throws like that. He’s not gifted with the arm to throw like that naturally. Even with Pittman out, Alec Pierce didn’t take over the intermediate role, Montgomery did.

 

I love Seniõr Minshew. I really, really like that they went and got him for our team this year. But change the QB to one with a different skill set and you’ll see different opportunities in the Colt’s passing game. 

[chad72]

37 minutes ago, lester said:

What people are saying when they say, “it’s the QB” is this: the routes that this scheme assigns to other receivers are not the same as those they assign to Alec Pierce.
 

Pittman and Downs are assigned the kind of routes that Minshew is very good at. Alec Pierce, however, is not assigned these kinds of routes. His role has consistently been to run really fast, far downfield. Minshew has to wind up to uncork throws like that. He’s not gifted with the arm to throw like that naturally. Even with Pittman out, Alec Pierce didn’t take over the intermediate role, Montgomery did.

 

I love Seniõr Minshew. I really, really like that they went and got him for our team this year. But change the QB to one with a different skill set and you’ll see different opportunities in the Colt’s passing game. 

Couldn’t have said it better.  

[GoColts8818]

1 hour ago, lester said:

What people are saying when they say, “it’s the QB” is this: the routes that this scheme assigns to other receivers are not the same as those they assign to Alec Pierce.
 

Pittman and Downs are assigned the kind of routes that Minshew is very good at. Alec Pierce, however, is not assigned these kinds of routes. His role has consistently been to run really fast, far downfield. Minshew has to wind up to uncork throws like that. He’s not gifted with the arm to throw like that naturally. Even with Pittman out, Alec Pierce didn’t take over the intermediate role, Montgomery did.

 

I love Seniõr Minshew. I really, really like that they went and got him for our team this year. But change the QB to one with a different skill set and you’ll see different opportunities in the Colt’s passing game. 

That’s why I added he hasn’t produced with any of the QBs the Colts have had since he’s been here, frankly his production has been the best with Minshew.  It’s not just the QB.  I am not saying Minshew isn’t part of the issue, I can buy that he’s part of it, but I don’t think if you switch QBs Alec Pierce is going to become the next great WR in the NFL but I would love to be wrong.

[GoColts8818]

8 hours ago, Solid84 said:

While I agree I do think it’s fair to mention that a little less than a third of Pierce’ targets requires a QB with an actual NFL arm. Neither Minshew nor Ryan has that. 

And yet those are the two he did the best with.  I think we all know Richardson has that arm and yet still nothing from Pierce and they were starting to go down the field more before Richardson got hurt.

[Behle]

What every team wants is the kind of player like what Lamb with Dallas showed last night. Those players are rare. He has been refined but came into the NFL with incredible potential and with the expectation of a performance shown last night. AP is a good receiver that should not be given up on. He just won’t be “that guy “ we all want him to be. 

[Hoose]

25 minutes ago, Behle said:

What every team wants is the kind of player like what Lamb with Dallas showed last night. Those players are rare. He has been refined but came into the NFL with incredible potential and with the expectation of a performance shown last night. AP is a good receiver that should not be given up on. He just won’t be “that guy “ we all want him to be. 

Lamb has the quick twitch move to get open off his plant. That he was clearly the main option in the Cowboy passing attack and still consistently got open with space shows that special trait which Pierce and most receivers lack. Pierce has straight line speed but that's it. His hands are average. He has the skillset to be a #4 receiver in this league; that's not a condemnation as much as a recognition of his limitations.  The Colts need to upgrade at WR regardless of the QB. They can't afford another $20m receiver after they pay Pitt, so look early in next year's draft for that upgrade.

[husker61]

59 minutes ago, GoColts8818 said:

And yet those are the two he did the best with.  I think we all know Richardson has that arm and yet still nothing from Pierce and they were starting to go down the field more before Richardson got hurt.

just because you have a great arm doesn’t mean you ar going to be able to make those deep throws! That has been proven many times.

[husker61]

1 hour ago, GoColts8818 said:

That’s why I added he hasn’t produced with any of the QBs the Colts have had since he’s been here, frankly his production has been the best with Minshew.  It’s not just the QB.  I am not saying Minshew isn’t part of the issue, I can buy that he’s part of it, but I don’t think if you switch QBs Alec Pierce is going to become the next great WR in the NFL but I would love to be wrong.

I don’t think anyone has said he will be a great wr, just good.

[TrueBlue4ever]

Way to Go Alec!!! Great game! 

[GoColts8818]

Gotta give him credit he came through today and Minshew clearly missed him earlier.  Hopefully he follows it up next week with another big game.

[chad72]

17 hours ago, chad72 said:

Yeah, if Reggie Wayne is his coach, he doesn't want to one up his coach who started shining in year 3, lol  

 

So, my conclusion is Year 3 is Alec Pierce's breakout year. 😁

 

On a serious note, it is a combination of how the offensive flow is structured and QB play, but folks will remember his game 1 TD drop as a rookie vs Texans from Matt Ryan last year, and the key 3rd down catch he couldn't come up with vs Falcons last game. The main problem is there aren't enough positive plays to offset these negative moments. That is why I feel that they should actively involve him more early on in a game when they can take those deep shot risks to establish a threat with him consistently game after game, not go away for 3 games after 1 good game.

I did say we need to take shots early in the game, EVERY game, didn’t I?  

[holeymoley99]

9 minutes ago, GoColts8818 said:

Gotta give him credit he came through today and Minshew clearly missed him earlier.  Hopefully he follows it up next week with another big game.

Sure hope it is the jolt he needs. Sermon played well, wish we saw more Goodson though.  When our O Line wins we are dangerous....Smith played very well

[chad72]

Just now, holeymoley99 said:

Sure hope it is the jolt he needs. Sermon played well, wish we saw more Goodson though.  When our O Line wins we are dangerous....Smith played very well

Smith and Pittman are difference makers with their presence AND absence, it shows!!!

[cdgacoltsfan]

11 minutes ago, TrueBlue4ever said:

Way to Go Alec!!! Great game! 

So glad that  Colts mgt doesnt listen to this forum!

[GoColts8818]

Just now, holeymoley99 said:

Sure hope it is the jolt he needs. Sermon played well, wish we saw more Goodson though.  When our O Line wins we are dangerous....Smith played very well

When they run outside it helps. The Colts have run wild in two of the last three when they run outside and don’t just bang it behind Kelly and Nelson.

[husker61]

21 minutes ago, GoColts8818 said:

Gotta give him credit he came through today and Minshew clearly missed him earlier.  Hopefully he follows it up next week with another big game.

the issue isn’t him showing up, it’s the qb showing up!

[cdgacoltsfan]

7 minutes ago, husker61 said:

the issue isn’t him showing up, it’s the qb showing up!

He's running wind sprints into the open over and over again .

[holeymoley99]

51 minutes ago, husker61 said:

the issue isn’t him showing up, it’s the qb showing up!

Partly true, he doesnt get good separation on medium routes, longer go routes yes 

[Dark Superman]

VANILLA SLICE!

[John Waylon]

Good catch today. He had run that route earlier in the game and was wide open on it but Minshew didn’t see him. 

[Solid84]

6 hours ago, GoColts8818 said:

And yet those are the two he did the best with.  I think we all know Richardson has that arm and yet still nothing from Pierce and they were starting to go down the field more before Richardson got hurt.

They’re also basically the only ones he’s played with. AR was read 1, read 2 then throw it away or run - he never got to Pierce. 

[husker61]

2 minutes ago, Solid84 said:

They’re also basically the only ones he’s played with. AR was read 1, read 2 then throw it away or run - he never got to Pierce. 

I think it’s the same with gm. I think the long pass today was a play designed for pierce, not a 3rd read.

[cbear]

At least a few times a game they need to design deep plays for Pierce and Minshew needs to commit to them, not always looking at 5-7 yard curls because he's worried about the rush. 

[indyagent17]

Pierce made a good catch and showed solid body control however he is usually invisible on the field. We need a great #1 receiver next year 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Once Pierce gets Richardson back he is going to be fine. 

[Superman]

10 hours ago, lester said:

Pittman and Downs are assigned the kind of routes that Minshew is very good at. Alec Pierce, however, is not assigned these kinds of routes. His role has consistently been to run really fast, far downfield. Minshew has to wind up to uncork throws like that. He’s not gifted with the arm to throw like that naturally. Even with Pittman out, Alec Pierce didn’t take over the intermediate role, Montgomery did.

 

 

I haven't seen this anywhere else, but they said during the game today that Pierce has run 40 more go routes than any other receiver in the NFL.