Alec Pierce

[richard pallo]

I think it’s pretty obvious the WR room needs a big upgrade during the offseason.  I think Steichen is going to have significant input and his success this year is going to give him a nice podium to operate from.  He knows that the fastest way to solve the problem is the same way they solved it in Philly.  Trade for the player like the Eagles did trading for Brown when Steichen was running the offense.  I have no idea who might become available but I think Ballard and Steichen are going to be focused on finding one to complement Pittman.  I think they have seen enough of our current group to know that we need to add another difference maker there.  And the sure fire way to get one is to trade for one assuming none become available during FA. 

[shasta519]

33 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Then that is a bad omen for this team.  Because the reason Philly can run the O through only 2 outside WRs is because those two guys are both high first round picks.  Smith and Brown (traded for a first).   Pitt and Downs aren't good enough to simulate that passing game, IMO.

 

Yep. The talent gap between PHI and IND at the skill positions is huge. But this is assuming they would run an AR-led offense like that going forward. Guess we don't know that yet.

 

I can't imagine an offseason where they aren't adding a notable pass catcher. MHJ isn't happening, but I think a WR in R1 is almost a lock. Odunze would be my prediction. unless he finds himself in the top 10 post Combine. 

 

 

[shasta519]

1 hour ago, NewColtsFan said:

Good to see you post.   If I had a new year’s wish, I’d hope you’d post more often in 2024.   The website is better when you post more. 
 

Im sure you have good reasons why you don’t post more,  but I think the community here benefits from your viewpoints.   They lead to better discussions.   
 

Hope to see you more in 24! 

 

 

 

Thanks for the kind words. I will certainly be active through ROS and in the offseason discussions. These past few months have been a bit hectic at work with projects. 

[husker61]

The colts te’s are a much bigger problem than the receivers. They have a lot of them and they aren’t good blockers or receivers. They need one that is a good blocker and one that is a blocker and receiver. You have to be able to run the ball if the rpo the colts want to run is going to work. A lot of the great qb’s have had that te that can block and receive. I don’t know what is available in the draft, but this is something the colts should have as a priority. 

[NewColtsFan]

4 hours ago, Superman said:

 

I agree with the bolded to an extent. I just think anyone with eyes should be aware that our WR room needs to be upgraded, so I would expect both Steichen and Ballard to be interested in adding better players there. But I'm not expecting our 2024 first rounder to be spent on a WR...

 

Regarding tall WRs, I do think that's a Ballard thing to a large extent. Not that Reich wasn't on board, but Ballard and Co. are obviously heavily influenced by RAS, and height/length play a significant role in RAS scores. If not for Downs having special traits outside of size, we probably don't draft him, and even then it took Reggie Wayne pounding the table for him.

im not expecting a WR in the first either.   But if it happens, it tells me several things.  
 

1.  That Steichen believes the Colts need a major upgrade at the position and not just more good players.  
 

2.  That Steichen may love MPJ, but he doesn’t believe he’s a true WR1 and instead thinks he’s a WR2.  And that may complicate signing MPJ and lead the Colts to putting a Tag on him.  I’ve always believed the MPJ negotiation could be very difficult.   He’ll want WR1 money and the Colts may offer WR2 money.  
 

As for the Reggie Wayne pounds the table comment, I think that comment has been misunderstood by many in this site.  
 

Ballard has a long documented history of giving credit for key decisions to his support staff.   
 

1.  Credited Dodds for convincing him to sign short Kenny Moore because he had 32.5 inch arms. 

2.   Credited Morocco brown for convincing CB to move Smith to RT.  Ballard admitted he didn’t think Smith could play anywhere but guard.   
 

3.   Credited Brown on Anthony Richardson.  
 

4.   Credited Wayne on Downs.  But let’s not kid ourselves, it’s not like Ballard and the team didn’t know who Downs was.   You’ve seen all the videos.  Ballard and staff talk about every player three times, Feb, Mar, Apr.    If Wayne didn’t pound the table,  the Colts might still have drafted Downs.   
 

5.  Ballard gives shout outs to Dodds, Brown and many in the scouting staff every year after the draft with clips of the scouts talking about the players the Colts just drafted.   This is Ballard’s way of saying thanks for a job well done plus promoting his own guys for possible better jobs with the Colts or another team. 
 

I think Ballard loves to be generous and magnanimous with those around him.  He’s confident enough he can admit mistakes and yet give credit to his staff.  He’s not worried about how he’s perceived by those who don’t like him.  
 

Just some different perspectives for consideration. 

[Superman]

1 minute ago, NewColtsFan said:

As for the Reggie Wayne pounds the table comment, I think that comment has been misunderstood by many in this site. 

 

I get your point on this, and I agree. I think Ballard goes out of his way to give props to his staff.

 

But on the Downs situation, it's not that no one else liked him and Reggie made a fuss about it, so let's get him his guy to shut him up. Just that when you have a former great as your position coach, and he really likes a guy at that position, it makes a difference. That's especially noteworthy when the GM is known (IMO) for liking players with size and length, and the player in question doesn't fit the profile. 

 

Just as important, maybe more important, is the fact that Downs has special traits to make up for his lack of size. His quickness and change of direction, production after catch, and ability to make contested catches despite his size, offsets most concerns about him being smaller than ideal. The Reggie piece is a bonus. Not unimportant, but definitely not the entire story.

[lester]

23 hours ago, DougDew said:

 Contractually speaking, Steichen will be here longer than Ballard will, and probably has strong input into the team.

 

Point of consideration: If a season is going so poorly that the GM gets fired, the new GM will choose a new coach. He will want his guy. Its just kinda the way it usually works out.

 

Ballard and Steichen are tied to each other. And I think that is a good thing.

[GoColts8818]

12 minutes ago, lester said:

 

Point of consideration: If a season is going so poorly that the GM gets fired, the new GM will choose a new coach. He will want his guy. Its just kinda the way it usually works out.

 

Ballard and Steichen are tied to each other. And I think that is a good thing.

Yeah that’s why I keep saying Irsay pretty much made the decision on Ballard last year and reset his window.  He knows if he brings in a new GM that GM will want his own coach and probably his own QB and the Colts just got two new of those and there is no argument for pulling the plug on either after one season.  
 

If people want further proof go back to what Irsay said in the pre-season when he said he wanted to see progress this year.  There is no denying there has been huge progress from last year to this year even if it doesn’t end in the playoffs.  

[DougDew]

23 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

Not a surprise, but I agree with almost none of this.   But that’s not important.  So let me cut to the chase….   What is the proof for your claim that Ballard has had his hat handed to him?   (Whatever that means?)  what has happened for you to believe that other than the fact that Moose believes it’s true?   

Believe it or not, for over a year I have had no interest in arguing with you.  We have been on this board for a long time, and whether you see it or not, we agree on a lot of things compared to many of the reactive extremists on this board.  We have some differences, but not many.

 

Your comment I quoted indicated that the HC (Reich) was sort of responsible for all of the big slow....bad...WRs...but that the HC (Steichen) is not responsible for Downs, the one different WR that's also good, but that Ballard is..  Only a "Blind Ballard Lover" would see it that way, and you are not one of those, so I was just pointing out that the way you said it implied some things I didn't think you meant.

 

I have no real idea who picked who, or who influences what pick.  I think its a collaborative effort where Ballard, Irsay, and the HC each assert their opinions...and with different levels of assertiveness from time to time based upon the position or the player.  All I'm saying is that whatever level of input you think Frank had on the roster, I'd wager that Irsay has allowed Steichen to have more input now than Frank ever did.  

 

As far as Irsay, when he says " I want to see progress this year", what is he talking about?  What are the consequences if there isn't progress this year?  Is the new HC that he just signed to a 6 year contract on the hot seat, or is his long-toothed GM more likely to be on the hot seat?  IMO, no, they are not tied together anymore than either Grigson or Frank were when each of them was fired independently from their colleague.  And each time, Irsay said they were linked...when it turned out they were not.  And Irsay hasn't even implied his HC and GM are linked this time, so I don't know why anybody would assume that they are.  

 

 

[ShuteAt168]

I think the “Reggie pounds table for Downs” is a cool anecdote but it doesn’t mean much. I bet some scout pounds the table for a lot of picks (it’s their job) that never make it. No one publicly talks about those table pounds. 

[ShuteAt168]

1 hour ago, lester said:

 

51 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Believe it or not, for over a year I have had no interest in arguing with you.  We have been on this board for a long time, and whether you see it or not, we agree on a lot of things compared to many of the reactive extremists on this board.  We have some differences, but not many.

 

Your comment I quoted indicated that the HC (Reich) was sort of responsible for all of the big slow....bad...WRs...but that the HC (Steichen) is not responsible for Downs, the one different WR that's also good, but that Ballard is..  Only a "Blind Ballard Lover" would see it that way, and you are not one of those, so I was just pointing out that the way you said it implied some things I didn't think you meant.

 

I have no real idea who picked who, or who influences what pick.  I think its a collaborative effort where Ballard, Irsay, and the HC each assert their opinions...and with different levels of assertiveness from time to time based upon the position or the player.  All I'm saying is that whatever level of input you think Frank had on the roster, I'd wager that Irsay has allowed Steichen to have more input now than Frank ever did.  

 

As far as Irsay, when he says " I want to see progress this year", what is he talking about?  What are the consequences if there isn't progress this year?  Is the new HC that he just signed to a 6 year contract on the hot seat, or is his long-toothed GM more likely to be on the hot seat?  IMO, no, they are not tied together anymore than either Grigson or Frank were when each of them was fired independently from their colleague.  And each time, Irsay said they were linked...when it turned out they were not.  And Irsay hasn't even implied his HC and GM are linked this time, so I don't know why anybody would assume that they are.  

 

 

Agreed. It’s just silly to think Ballard and Steichen are tied together. Ballard has had seven years to prove what he’s capable of. He’s mediocre—less than .500. I think a new GM would be more than pleased to walk in with Steichen and a possible franchise QB to work with, considering most new GMs walk into dumpster fires. I don’t think it’s risky at all to bring in a new GM. 

[indyagent17]

I truly agree with this. Ballard has done a good job, finding linebackers and depth on both lines but telling us that the receiving core is just fine is ridiculous. Outside of Pittman and Downs what are the wide receivers are actually contributing. All three of our ends have more catches, the rest of the receivers have 

[NewColtsFan]

2 hours ago, DougDew said:

Believe it or not, for over a year I have had no interest in arguing with you.  We have been on this board for a long time, and whether you see it or not, we agree on a lot of things compared to many of the reactive extremists on this board.  We have some differences, but not many.

 

Your comment I quoted indicated that the HC (Reich) was sort of responsible for all of the big slow....bad...WRs...but that the HC (Steichen) is not responsible for Downs, the one different WR that's also good, but that Ballard is..  Only a "Blind Ballard Lover" would see it that way, and you are not one of those, so I was just pointing out that the way you said it implied some things I didn't think you meant.

 

I have no real idea who picked who, or who influences what pick.  I think its a collaborative effort where Ballard, Irsay, and the HC each assert their opinions...and with different levels of assertiveness from time to time based upon the position or the player.  All I'm saying is that whatever level of input you think Frank had on the roster, I'd wager that Irsay has allowed Steichen to have more input now than Frank ever did.  

 

As far as Irsay, when he says " I want to see progress this year", what is he talking about?  What are the consequences if there isn't progress this year?  Is the new HC that he just signed to a 6 year contract on the hot seat, or is his long-toothed GM more likely to be on the hot seat?  IMO, no, they are not tied together anymore than either Grigson or Frank were when each of them was fired independently from their colleague.  And each time, Irsay said they were linked...when it turned out they were not.  And Irsay hasn't even implied his HC and GM are linked this time, so I don't know why anybody would assume that they are.  

 

 

Doug….   Wanted to drop you a note saying I haven’t had a chance to respond to your post.   And when I do, I’ve decided to break it up into two posts not one.   I’ve got a lot to say and I’d rather write two long posts than one ridiculously gigantic post.   No one needs/wants that.  
 

So, I’ll be back in a while.   Didn't want to leave you hanging.  

[richard pallo]

2 hours ago, ShuteAt168 said:

I think the “Reggie pounds table for Downs” is a cool anecdote but it doesn’t mean much. I bet some scout pounds the table for a lot of picks (it’s their job) that never make it. No one publicly talks about those table pounds. 

I wonder if he pounded the table for Pierce.

[AustexColt]

AP will only shine when AR becomes our QB. Right now we are driving on 2nd gear. 

[OLD FAN MAN]

On 12/26/2023 at 4:12 PM, w87r said:

This is what I was getting ready to post.

 

 

Let's see what he can do when we are focusing on getting the ball a little more vertical.

 

 

He is clearly explosive. 22nd in league in yards per catch. 14.7.

 

 

That's more than:

Waddle

Nacua

AJ Brown

DJ Moore

CeeDee Lamb

 

to name a few.

 

 

Just needs some more targets. He needs to step up his game a little too though.

i dont know how many he has dropped but it seems like a lot

[OLD FAN MAN]

On 12/26/2023 at 5:36 PM, w87r said:

Great point, I've been looking for a stat/ranking on them but empty so far, but he definitely draws a few.

imo ballard likes him or he would have been replaced by now

[w87r]

46 minutes ago, OLD FAN MAN said:

i dont know how many he has dropped but it seems like a lot

They got him for 3 drops(60 targets). Not great, but could be worse. 1 for every 20 targets.

 

 

Tyreek Hill and Nakua have 10 drops a piece in 146 targets a piece

 

That's 1 for every 14.6 passes.

 

St Brown has 8 drops in 146 targets 1 every 18 targets

Diggs 8 drops in 145 targets - 1 every 18 targets

 

 

 

So Pierce has better drop/target ratio than all these top WRs.

[w87r]

28 minutes ago, OLD FAN MAN said:

imo ballard likes him or he would have been replaced by now

Or, you just don't give up easy on guys.

 

 

He will have had 500yds + in both his first 2 seasons(needs 44 more yards this year, 593 last year), with a rough QB situation.

 

Pierce is on a rookie deal for 2 more years, doubt he goes anywhere anytime soon.

[OLD FAN MAN]

On 12/27/2023 at 1:33 PM, Superman said:

 

What I said is there are a lot of missed opportunities to get Pierce the ball. And that was partly in response to you (and others) saying that he doesn't get separation and can't get open.

 

He needs to run routes better, he should be more reliable catching the ball (that's kind of a new thing this year though), the production isn't there, we gotta add to the WR room... we're on the same page on all of that. I'm pushing back on the idea that he doesn't get the ball because he can't get open, and that's because I see him getting open and still not getting the ball. My point is pretty much what you said in bold. 

is he getting open deep after o-line protection breaks down and the qb cant get set to throw deep? could it be an o-line problem?

[OLD FAN MAN]

if pierce takes over the raiders game and is a gamechanger and we win I will say that I called it, lol

[husker61]

4 hours ago, w87r said:

They got him for 3 drops(60 targets). Not great, but could be worse. 1 for every 20 targets.

 

 

Tyreek Hill and Nakua have 10 drops a piece in 146 targets a piece

 

That's 1 for every 14.6 passes.

 

St Brown has 8 drops in 146 targets 1 every 18 targets

Diggs 8 drops in 145 targets - 1 every 18 targets

 

 

 

So Pierce has better drop/target ratio than all these top WRs.

thank you! That pretty much kills the narrative that so many people here have been saying. 

[husker61]

4 hours ago, OLD FAN MAN said:

is he getting open deep after o-line protection breaks down and the qb cant get set to throw deep? could it be an o-line problem?

or a qb problem. Qb that don’t have a strong arm have to anticipate receivers breaking open before they actually do. Good examples are Peyton manning and Dan routs, and gm isn’t anywhere close to that level. 

[Solid84]

8 hours ago, w87r said:

They got him for 3 drops(60 targets). Not great, but could be worse. 1 for every 20 targets.

 

 

Tyreek Hill and Nakua have 10 drops a piece in 146 targets a piece

 

That's 1 for every 14.6 passes.

 

St Brown has 8 drops in 146 targets 1 every 18 targets

Diggs 8 drops in 145 targets - 1 every 18 targets

 

 

 

So Pierce has better drop/target ratio than all these top WRs.

As I understand it a drop is registered by PFF when a receiver has the ball in his hands to some extent then drops it. 
 

I think a lot of people think of a drop as a catchable ball going through open hands as well. 
 

Another way to describe Pierce’ hands is his catch rate - 31 of 59, 52.5%. That’s not good. 

[NewColtsFan]

12 hours ago, DougDew said:

Believe it or not, for over a year I have had no interest in arguing with you.  We have been on this board for a long time, and whether you see it or not, we agree on a lot of things compared to many of the reactive extremists on this board.  We have some differences, but not many.

 

Your comment I quoted indicated that the HC (Reich) was sort of responsible for all of the big slow....bad...WRs...but that the HC (Steichen) is not responsible for Downs, the one different WR that's also good, but that Ballard is..  Only a "Blind Ballard Lover" would see it that way, and you are not one of those, so I was just pointing out that the way you said it implied some things I didn't think you meant.

 

I have no real idea who picked who, or who influences what pick.  I think its a collaborative effort where Ballard, Irsay, and the HC each assert their opinions...and with different levels of assertiveness from time to time based upon the position or the player.  All I'm saying is that whatever level of input you think Frank had on the roster, I'd wager that Irsay has allowed Steichen to have more input now than Frank ever did.  

 

As far as Irsay, when he says " I want to see progress this year", what is he talking about?  What are the consequences if there isn't progress this year?  Is the new HC that he just signed to a 6 year contract on the hot seat, or is his long-toothed GM more likely to be on the hot seat?  IMO, no, they are not tied together anymore than either Grigson or Frank were when each of them was fired independently from their colleague.  And each time, Irsay said they were linked...when it turned out they were not.  And Irsay hasn't even implied his HC and GM are linked this time, so I don't know why anybody would assume that they are.  

 

 

Doug…..  

 

I’ll try and take your post a paragraph at a time.  
 

I join you in not wanting to fight with you.   I think we reached something of a truce after last season.  Honestly I think you and I fighting publicly was bad for the website.  I’m getting too old for that. 
 

But for the life of me, I’m not sure how and why you think we agree on a lot of things?    That’s a head scratcher for me.   To be candid, I rarely find myself in agreement with you.   But I’ve tried to criticize you less than I used to.   I try to pick my spots more carefully.   I believe the reason I remember so many details of your posts is that you have very unique views (notice I didn’t say wrong, but unique) and therefore much of what you say jumps out at me and sticks in my mind.  
 

As for what Reich and Steichen had influence on, I think either I didn’t make myself clear, or you misinterpreted my meaning.   No matter.   But I think Frank had a preference, and I’m sure Steichen had input on Downs.   I was only trying to tamp down the view that the Colts wouldn’t have drafted Downs if it wasn’t for Wayne banging the table for him.  I think that view spun wildly out of control here and took on a life of its own.   By the way I wouldn’t call any of our receivers “big, slow, bad” which I believe was your characterization of our receivers with Frank. 
 

I appreciate that you don’t see me as a “Blind Ballard Lover.”   I’m not sure how many here would agree with you?  I tried to very public say that I was off the Ballard Bandwagon after last year’s disaster.  I try to see him in a much more critical eye.   Still, I see no evidence that his power has diminished or that Steichen has more control or authority.   I think Steichen has a much different approach and I’m fine with that, but it doesn’t yet add up to me that Ballard’s star has dimmed.   He’s still the same GM who picked Steichen.  Now that doesn’t mean things couldn’t change.   If the Colts lose these last two games to end the year with a three game losing streak, it’s entirely possible that Irsay could throw a fit and fire Ballard.  I personally think it would be the worst thing for Steichen and the franchise, but I’m sure some would completely disagree.  
 

As for the term tied together, I think that’s being distorted here.  I think Ballard has a 2-year window to get things right.  I think he gets two more years with AR to see what happens.   At that point I think he’d be very vulnerable and likely fired.  But while it’s possible that could happen sooner, I don’t think it’s likely.   
 

As for what happened with Grigson and Frank…..   Irsay had to bring in a marriage counselor to try and repair Grigson and Pagano and that failed.   And Reich got a raw deal.  Not because he was fired, but because of WHEN he was fired.  The debacle in the Pats loss was not only predictable, about a half dozen posters actually did predict it during the week.  We called exactly what would happen.  Yet  Irsay threw a fit and pulled the trigger too soon.  Not one of his better moments.  I think history has born that out. 

 

Apologies….   This has gone on long enough.   Tomorrow, I’ll write another post  about a post you made Monday or Tuesday about the age and talent of the Colts roster.   It was….  Peculiar.   
 

Thanks for your patience.  Until then. 
 

Michael

NCF

[w87r]

3 hours ago, Solid84 said:

Another way to describe Pierce’ hands is his catch rate - 31 of 59, 52.5%. That’s not good.

That isn't a good way at all, has nothing to do with hands. If a pass goes over your head by 10yds or 1 hops you, that doesn't say a thing about your hands 

 

 

Only 34 of his 60 targets were labeled catchable balls. He caught 31 of them.

 

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/advanced-stats-wr.php

[Solid84]

2 hours ago, w87r said:

That isn't a good way at all, has nothing to do with hands. If a pass goes over your head by 10yds or 1 hops you, that doesn't say a thing about your hands 

 

 

Only 34 of his 60 targets were labeled catchable balls. He caught 31 of them.

 

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/advanced-stats-wr.php

I know it’s not a direct way of describing how good his hands are, but a WR with low catch rate is generally viewed with suspicion, wouldn’t you say?

 

We’ve discussed this about catchable balls before in the gameday threads. I definitely disagree he’s only had 34 catchable balls and caught 31 and I think by far the most who’s watched the Colts would agree. A 91.2% catch rate would be off the charts and Pierce would be talked about a lot more outside of Colts nation as well. 

[w87r]

8 minutes ago, Solid84 said:

I know it’s not a direct way of describing how good his hands are, but a WR with low catch rate is generally viewed with suspicion, wouldn’t you say?

 

We’ve discussed this about catchable balls before in the gameday threads. I definitely disagree he’s only had 34 catchable balls and caught 31 and I think by far the most who’s watched the Colts would agree. A 91.2% catch rate would be off the charts and Pierce would be talked about a lot more outside of Colts nation as well. 

There probably are a few more than 34, but the point still stands. I would say there is probably another 3-4 in there, but it's not like we are adding double digits.

 

 

As far as the low catch rate, my first thought goes to,  the WRs are getting attempts that are far less likely to be completed, as opposed to an 8yd hitch route to Pittman(high completion chances). That's not because of the WR either, that is because the QB is more likely to be more accurate on the short pass.

 

Either way it goes catch rate has no correlation to "hands" for me. Most of that is beyond the WRs control. 

 

Ball thrown out of bounce and you're closest WR, ball thrown way over head, ball thrown short, ball thrown behind you, none of those things say anything about a WRs hands 

[shasta519]

45 minutes ago, Solid84 said:

I know it’s not a direct way of describing how good his hands are, but a WR with low catch rate is generally viewed with suspicion, wouldn’t you say?

 

We’ve discussed this about catchable balls before in the gameday threads. I definitely disagree he’s only had 34 catchable balls and caught 31 and I think by far the most who’s watched the Colts would agree. A 91.2% catch rate would be off the charts and Pierce would be talked about a lot more outside of Colts nation as well. 

 

His true catch rate is 83.8%. Sounds like a really high number, but that ranks #89 among WRs.

 

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/alec-pierce/

[Superman]

1 hour ago, Solid84 said:

We’ve discussed this about catchable balls before in the gameday threads. I definitely disagree he’s only had 34 catchable balls and caught 31 and I think by far the most who’s watched the Colts would agree. A 91.2% catch rate would be off the charts and Pierce would be talked about a lot more outside of Colts nation as well. 

 

Based on what? What do you think happens when he gets thrown a catchable ball? He's only been charged with three drops this season...

 

Catch rate is a stat based on total targets, not catchable targets. So no, he doesn't have a 91% catch rate.

 

Break it down further. Pierce has 60 total targets this season. If 34 were catchable, that leaves 26 not catchable. That's 1.7 bad throws to Pierce per game. Don't you think that holds up to the eye test? You don't think Minshew overthrows Pierce 1-2 times per game?

[Solid84]

1 hour ago, Superman said:

 

Based on what? What do you think happens when he gets thrown a catchable ball? He's only been charged with three drops this season...

 

Catch rate is a stat based on total targets, not catchable targets. So no, he doesn't have a 91% catch rate.

 

Break it down further. Pierce has 60 total targets this season. If 34 were catchable, that leaves 26 not catchable. That's 1.7 bad throws to Pierce per game. Don't you think that holds up to the eye test? You don't think Minshew overthrows Pierce 1-2 times per game?

A catchable ball is by definition catchable - meaning actually catching the ball is on the receiver but influenced by defenders of course. But, then we’re getting into contested targets as well and losing contested targets is still not a good look for receivers. 
 

Catch rate would be wrong I agree. Call it “adjusted catch rate” - how many targets of catchable targets did he actually catch. 

I agree with @w87r there something to be said about what kind of targets he gets and the targets Pierce gets are more often inaccurate. But, there are loads of WRs with similar ADOT with a higher catch rate

[w87r]

1 hour ago, Solid84 said:

I agree with @w87r there something to be said about what kind of targets he gets and the targets Pierce gets are more often inaccurate. But, there are loads of WRs with similar ADOT with a higher catch rate

I'm sure there are, I also imagine some have a higher target rate( more opportunity to improve rate), or some have a better QB.(improving catchable balls ratio)

 

 

When you consider you(AP) only get 4 targets a game(60(t)/15 games), and as Superman said over 1.7 of those are inaccurate. Leaves you with 2.3 targets to do something with.

 

2.07 of them are completed,  leaving .23 targets unaccounted for. Almost 2.1/2.3 catchable targets are getting caught.

 

No one is doing much of anything in 2.3 catchable targets a game.

 

 

 

He definitely has some improving to do, I don't think anyone on either side here thinks anything different than that.

 

 

Back to the original point though.

 

Receptions per target doesn't say anything about a players hands.

 

 

Looking at the link Shasta posted it says Pierce has the 8th highest ADOT, would be interested to see the players with similar ADOTs and their # of targets and their catch %.

[sb41champs]

Until the team gets ALL the "pieces" needed to have a "kick *" offense - players may look average for a while.

 

I want the team to extend Michael Pittman Jr. - and - add two wideouts via free agency or the draft.

 

Competition makes everyone better.

[Solid84]

13 minutes ago, w87r said:

I'm sure there are, I also imagine some have a higher target rate( more opportunity to improve rate), or some have a better QB.(improving catchable balls ratio)

 

 

When you consider you(AP) only get 4 targets a game(60(t)/15 games), and as Superman said over 1.7 of those are inaccurate. Leaves you with 2.3 targets to do something with.

 

2.07 of them are completed,  leaving .23 targets unaccounted for. Almost 2.1/2.3 catchable targets are getting caught.

 

No one is doing much of anything in 2.3 catchable targets a game.

 

 

 

He definitely has some improving to do, I don't think anyone on either side here thinks anything different than that.

 

 

Back to the original point though.

 

Receptions per target doesn't say anything about a players hands.

 

 

Looking at the link Shasta posted it says Pierce has the 8th highest ADOT, would be interested to see the players with similar ADOTs and their # of targets and their catch %.

I don’t expect him to get a 100+ yards and several TDs per game. I do generally expect him to catch catchable balls and I don’t think he does enough of that. 
 

I’ll see if I can find those numbers on pff  a bit later. 

[Solid84]

Nvm..

[w87r]

29 minutes ago, Solid84 said:

Nvm..

So essentially, he is pretty much on the same percentage level with everyone in front of him and around him, outside a couple guys.(listed 15yds and over)

 

(ADOT - Targets + Catch %)

01 Justin Watson------18.9------49--------53.1%

02 Christian Watson---16.7-----23---------52.8%

03 DeAndre Hopkins--16.0----116---------52.6%

04 Gabe Davis---------15.6------73---------58.9%

05 Alec Pierce---------15.4------59---------52.5%

06 Zay Jones----------15.2------53---------52.8%

07 Michael Wilson----15.1------47---------59.6%

 

 

They have Watson's info messed up, without looking. Minimum was 40 receptions, he can't have (23)(should be 53)targets. Although Wilson only has 28? To qualify for your list was 40 receptions. Neither of those guys have it. They meant 40 targets. They need to fix their details. Pierce only has 31 as well.

 

Gabe Davis outlier here as he has Josh Allen, one of most accurate QBs in the league this year.

 

Michael Wilson showing a solid start

 

 

Side Bar:

Since you think this stat reflects a players hands. How would you counter Hopkins, who has some of the best hands in the league for years, being on this list and essentially a push with Pierce?

[Solid84]

• Top 24 ADOT
• At least 40 receptions

 

01 Justin Watson -- ADOT: 18.9

• Targets/CatchRate/QBR: 49/53.%/76.8
• DeepTargets/DeepCatchRate/DeepTargetedQBR: 21/33.3%/32.1
• DeepRate 42.9%

 

02 Christian Watson -- ADOT: 16.7

• Targets/CatchRate/QBR: 53/52.8%/71.4
• DeepTargets/DeepCatchRate/DeepTargetedQBR: 16/31.3%/92.4
• DeepRate 30.2%

 

03 DeAndre Hopkins -- ADOT: 16.0

• Targets/CatchRate/QBR: 116/52.6%/78.9
• DeepTargets/DeepCatchRate/DeepTargetedQBR: 38/31.6%/62.1
• DeepRate 32.8%

 

04 Gave Davis -- ADOT: 15.6 

• Targets/CatchRate/QBR: 73/58.9%/101.7
• DeepTargets/DeepCatchRate/DeepTargetedQBR: 24/45.8%/97.2
• DeepRate 32.9%

 

05 Alec Pierce -- ADOT: 15.4

• Targets/CatchRate/QBR: 59/52.5%/76.7
• DeepTargets/DeepCatchRate/DeepTargetedQBR: 17/35.3%/76.8
• DeepRate 28.8%

 

06 Zay Jones -- ADOT: 15.2

• Targets/CatchRate/QBR: 53/52.8%/72.4
• DeepTargets/DeepCatchRate/DeepTargetedQBR: 14/21.4%/44.0
• DeepRate 26.4%

 

07 Michael Wilson -- ADOT: 15.1

• Targets/CatchRate/QBR: 47/59.6%/95.6
• DeepTargets/DeepCatchRate/DeepTargetedQBR: 10/50.0%/129.2
• DeepRate 21.3%

 

08 Mike Evans -- ADOT: 14.9

• Targets/CatchRate/QBR: 117/62.4%/121.8
• DeepTargets/DeepCatchRate/DeepTargetedQBR: 29/41.4%/99.5
• DeepRate 24.8%

 

09 Rashid Shaheed -- ADOT: 14.8

• Targets/CatchRate/QBR: 64/64.1%/98.4
• DeepTargets/DeepCatchRate/DeepTargetedQBR: 20/55.0%/118.8
• DeepRate 31.3%

 

10 Rashod Bateman -- ADOT: 14.7

• Targets/CatchRate/QBR: 49/57.1%/57.6
• DeepTargets/DeepCatchRate/DeepTargetedQBR: 12/8.3%/0
• DeepRate 24.5%

 

11 DK Metcalf -- ADOT: 14.6

• Targets/CatchRate/QBR: 100/60.0%/103.7
• DeepTargets/DeepCatchRate/DeepTargetedQBR: 28/35.7/56.3
• DeepRate 28.0%

 

12 Odell Beckham Jr. -- ADOT: 14.6

• Targets/CatchRate/QBR: 61/55.7%/94.4 
• DeepTargets/DeepCatchRate/DeepTargetedQBR: 12/25.0%/98.6
• DeepRate 19.7%

 

13 Brandon Aiyuk-- ADOT: 14.5

• Targets/CatchRate/QBR: 89/73.0%/123.5
• DeepTargets/DeepCatchRate/DeepTargetedQBR: 18/66.7%/149.3
• DeepRate 20.2%

 

14 Tank Dell -- ADOT: 14.4

• Targets/CatchRate/QBR: 74/63.5%/115.2
• DeepTargets/DeepCatchRate/DeepTargetedQBR: 14/50.0%/135.4
• DeepRate 18.9%

 

15 DJ Chark Jr. -- ADOT: 14.3

• Targets/CatchRate/QBR: 52/61.5%/122.4
• DeepTargets/DeepCatchRate/DeepTargetedQBR: 11/45.5%/131.6
• DeepRate 21.2%

 

16 Chris Olave -- ADOT: 14.2

• Targets/CatchRate/QBR: 129/62.8%/88.7
• DeepTargets/DeepCatchRate/DeepTargetedQBR: 31/22.6%/27.3
• DeepRate 24.0%

 

17 Amari Cooper -- ADOT: 14.1

• Targets/CatchRate/QBR: 122/59.0%/87.1
• DeepTargets/DeepCatchRate/DeepTargetedQBR: 24/54.2%/104.2
• DeepRate 19.7%

 

18 Calvin Ridley -- ADOT: 14.0

• Targets/CatchRate/QBR: 116/56.9%/86.5
• DeepTargets/DeepCatchRate/DeepTargetedQBR: 29/41.4%/104
• DeepRate 25.0%

 

19 George Pickens -- ADOT: 13.8

• Targets/CatchRate/QBR: 95/58.9%/95.5
• DeepTargets/DeepCatchRate/DeepTargetedQBR: 19/47.4%/89.1
• DeepRate 20.0%

 

20 Jerry Jeudy -- ADOT: 13.6

• Targets/CatchRate/QBR: 72/66.7%/86.9
• DeepTargets/DeepCatchRate/DeepTargetedQBR: 13/25.0%/66.4
• DeepRate 22.2%

 

21 Justin Jefferson -- ADOT: 13.4

• Targets/CatchRate/QBR: 75/68.0%/105.6
• DeepTargets/DeepCatchRate/DeepTargetedQBR: 19/57.9%/97.9
• DeepRate 25.3%

 

22 Quentin Johnston -- ADOT: 13.4.

• Targets/CatchRate/QBR: 55/60.0%/85.8
• DeepTargets/DeepCatchRate/DeepTargetedQBR: 13/15.4%/54.0
• DeepRate 23.6%

 

23 Courtland Sutton -- ADOT: 13.2

• Targets/CatchRate/QBR: 83/69.9%/128.8
• DeepTargets/DeepCatchRate/DeepTargetedQBR: 20/55.0%/118.8
• DeepRate 24.1

 

24 Diontae Johnson -- ADOT: 13.0

• Targets/CatchRate/QBR: 77/55.8%/90.4
• DeepTargets/DeepCatchRate/DeepTargetedQBR: 17/29.4%/58.2
• DeepRate 22.1%

 

Average -- ADOT: 14.7

• Targets/CatchRate/QBR: 78.3/59.9%/94.4
• DeepTargets/DeepCatchRate/DeepTargetedQBR: 19.7/38.5%/85.1
• DeepRate 25.4%

[Solid84]

13 minutes ago, w87r said:

They have Watson's info messed up, without looking. Minimum was 40 receptions, he can't have (23)(should be 53)targets. Although Wilson only has 28? To qualify for your list was 40 receptions. Neither of those guys have it. They meant 40 targets. They need to fix their details. Pierce only has 31 as well.

That's due to my butter fingers.

 

I've tried making a better format in the post above.

 

Quote

Side Bar:

Since you think this stat reflects a players hands. How would you counter Hopkins, who has some of the best hands in the league for years, being on this list and essentially a push with Pierce?

A WR with bad hands would have a low catch rate when you consider the above. But an inaccurate QB would skew it as well of course. This is the case for Hopkins this season. He's waaay below his average this year and that's likely due to poor QB play. I'll concede I was wrong on this.

[w87r]

12 minutes ago, Solid84 said:

That's due to my butter fingers.

 

I've tried making a better format in the post above.

 

A WR with bad hands would have a low catch rate when you consider the above. But an inaccurate QB would skew it as well of course. This is the case for Hopkins this season. He's waaay below his average this year and that's likely due to poor QB play. I'll concede I was wrong on this.

It's all good

 

Are those PFF numbers?

 

Their top 24 qualifier says at least 40 receptions. It should say targets. That's not from your butter fingers. That's from the site missing pretty easy to see details.

 

Not even arguing that Pierce doesn't need to make more plays. He does, but he also needs more chances (good, higher percentage chances) to do so. 

 

Definitely don't think catch% gives any indication to someone's quality of hands though.

[Solid84]

9 minutes ago, w87r said:

It's all good

 

Are those PFF numbers?

 

Their top 24 qualifier says at least 40 receptions. It should say targets. That's not from your butter fingers. That's from the site missing pretty easy to see details.

Yes PFF numbers

 

It's my mistake. It is players with at least 40 targets. I wrote receptions by mistake. I downloaded a CSV file and had to edit the data myself - and it is done by targets, not receptions.